Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

This week, thanks to our friends at the great site FantasyAuctioneer.com, let’s make recommendations in light of players’ concrete average auction values (AAV) in thousands of preseason leagues that have already assembled rosters. I realize that most leagues draft, so I will also indicate the corresponding draft slot for each value.

The assumption here is a 12-team league with a $200 budget for 16 players. Assumed scoring is 1 pt/20 yds passing; 1 pt/10 yards rushing/receiving; 4 pts passing TD, 6 pts all other TDs. Upgrade means we think he’s going to earn more relative to cost; downgrade, less.

Upgrade

Carnell Williams, RB, Bucs ($22.24, 41st overall): Last year, he was taken in the middle of Round 1 everywhere and I warned you that was too high. Now the price has dropped to the point where I’d be a buyer. He’s reportedly going to be firmly integrated into the passing game, which helps in point-per-catch leagues. Maybe 33-year-old Mike Alstott holds up and siphons off the goal-line carries again. (UPDATE: Alstott announced his retirement on Thursday, leaving FB B.J. Askew as the only competition for goal-line carries.) But expect Williams to double his red zone plays (just 28 last year, including times targeted as a receiver). Given his talent, Williams should be able to generate a half-dozen scores here and maybe one or two more long ones.

Julius Jones, RB, Cowboys ($11.31, 58th overall): When the committee situation can go either way, it usually pays to grab the runner who is seeded second at your draft. Last year, that Cowboy running back was Marion Barber. This year, it’s Jones, who is still very explosive and has a new coaching staff on which to make a positive first impression. If Terrell Owens tails off at age 33 (unlikely), the Cowboys will desperately need Jones’s playmaking ability.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers ($7.28, 77th overall): He’s had a rough start to camp. Vernand Morency seems entrenched as the starter. But Morency is a journeyman for a reason (Green Bay is his third team in less than a year). Jackson was drafted in the second round to be a starter and rookie RBs tend to make a quick impact. Expect him to be the man by Halloween. I’d always rather sign for the a guy right out of the showroom than the other RBs available in middle rounds who are mostly retreads and nearly deads.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys ($6.58, 82nd overall): Why take a QB early when you can get a guy like Romo nearly halfway through your draft? Romo averaged 8.61 yards per attempt, which, if he does it this year, will very likely give him over 30 TD passes. Last year, his 18 TD passes in 10 starts translates to a 29-TD pass pace. For a QB, a 7.5 YPA is a magic number; 8.5 and over is off-the-charts good. In addition, Owens is still in town and there was still no better WR weapon in football last year than him. Assistant Head Coach Tony Sparano returns as the Cowboys playcaller.

No Change

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots ($22.24, 39th overall): I feel like I’m fence-straddling with these “holds” in the preseason. But they do serve their purpose during the regular season. Moss seems perfectly priced to me, as he can earn $40 or, conceivably, $0. I’d swallow hard if someone took Moss off the board here because I know he’s a guy who can beat me and that kind of upside is always a bargain once three rounds have passed in any serious 12-team draft.

Downgrade

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts ($43.94, 12th overall): He’s an inner-circle Hall of Famer and the best QB I’ve ever seen. But you can’t win fantasy championships in standard leagues paying this kind of price for a QB. There are 10 or 12 guys every year who throw 25-TD passes (or maintain a 25-TD pace once elevated due to a benching or injury). Half of those guys get you to within arm’s length of Manning. And your fellow fantasy owners get these QBs late or even in free agency (Tony Romo). Here’s the strategy for every draft: be the last team to take a starting QB and the first team to take a backup. You’re almost certain to get a 25-TD QB this way, and maybe two. Meanwhile, the Manning owner very likely will be hunting for a running back all year.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints ($43.50, 14th overall): This is a good price in a distance-scoring league. But few leagues use this scoring system (unfortunately). If you’re in a point-per-catch league, you can think about this kind of investment, too. But again, those leagues are in the minority. In standard scoring, Bush scores the hard way (from a distance), while Deuce McAllister gets the easy ones in close. Last year, McAllister had 21 goal-line rushes, Bush seven. The sad thing is that McAllister is generally very poor in this role (converted just 33 percent last year) and Bush isn’t half bad (3-for-7). But McAllister on the goal line is the chalk pick. Perhaps not as it should be, but very probably as it will be.

Jon Kitna, QB, Lions ($11.77, 57th overall): I’ve been down this road before. Crappy QB. Great situation. Tommy Maddox went bust. So did Kurt Warner (twice, once for the Rams and once for the Cardinals). Drew Bledsoe says, “Me, too!” It’s so easy to foresee Kitna getting benched for Michigan State rookie QB Drew Stanton (a second-round pick) after suffering through a barrage of sacks and interceptions during a typical 1-5 Lions start. I’d happily take Kitna in my last/first QB strategy. But 57th overall is way too early for that. Yes, the Lions could be explosive with the supremely gifted Roy Williams and even more talented Calvin Johnson manning the WR spots (plus pesky Mike Furry in the slot). Kitna’s 7.0 YPA seems like a positive indicator until you realize that’s about as bad as it gets in a Mike Martz offense. Of course, that YPA doesn’t factor yards lost due to those unconscionable 63 sacks. Yes, some may not have been his fault. But most probably were. And these sacks say Kitna is probably ill-suited to a Martz-styled attack.