Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The Interleague part of the baseball schedule is over and the AL again bested the NL, head-to-head, 149-102 -- the fifth straight year that the AL has won the series. Let's try to make sense out of this apparent stretch of AL dominance.

Last year, the AL finished 137-115 versus the NL in regular-season play. In 2006, the AL bested the NL 154-98; and, in 2005, it was 136-116 in favor of the AL.

Case closed? Consider some caveats. Interleague play isn't the best way to assess the relative strength of each league because the leagues don't actually play one another, individual teams do in various combinations. Only a small percentage of the possible combinations of teams are tested each year.

And the drawback to making judgments based on multi-season data is that the players are always changing. So what happened in 2006 doesn't really mean much in assessing the leagues in 2008.

But while the chance that the AL is better than the NL is not as likely as certain as recent records suggest, it's still likely. So why is the AL likely consistently better?

AL teams have higher average payrolls than NL teams: $97.5 million per team this year in the AL, $83.3 million in the NL. Note this gap is shrinking, though, as average payrolls increased about $5 million in the AL and $10 million in the NL this offseason. All payroll data was provided by the Associated Press based on opening day rosters.

One big problem you see with these averages is that the Yankees are breaking the bank at the top ($209 million) and, at the bottom, the Marlins are paying half as much in payroll as any other team ($21.8 million, or less than what the Yanks pay just Jason Giambi). Take away these top and bottom outliers and the AL now beats the NL in average payroll, $88.9 to $87.4 million.

Note that the Bombers spend $73 million on Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Giambi this year, more than 11 teams spend on their entire rosters.

Not discounting for the Yanks and Marlins problem and assuming that the AL played the NL in a more uniform and thus statistically reliable way, we would expect the AL to go 136-115 based only on the additional money each team, on average, spends on players. Of course, this assumes that payroll correlates perfectly to wins, which it doesn't. Just ask the Yankees, looking way up at the standings at the Rays - baseball's second-lowest payroll team at just $43 million and change.

We also see evidence of payroll not correlating to performance when we look at the list of the league's highest-paid players. Let's assess whether their future on-field fortunes are likely to be bullish or bearish. Individual salary in parentheses, courtesy of USA Today.

Buy

Torii Hunter, OF, Angels ($16.5 million): He's disappointed with the power and has hit homers on 10.7 percent of fly balls, about league average. His last six years with the Twins, it was about 16 percent. The problem is on the road, where he's slugging .351. Expect a big correction.

Andy Pettitte, P, Yankees ($16 million): His fastball is only slightly slower (88.4 mph on average), but he's getting more Ks and walking less men than last year. He's also getting more grounders (53 percent), though that's increasing his hit rate (.319 allowed on balls in play).

Randy Johnson, P, Diamondbacks ($15.1 million): Average fastball is just 91 mph now. But the K/BB ratio is very healthy. He's allowing a .354 average on batted balls (.303 for his career). If he stays healthy - a big if - the results should be much better.

Hold

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners ($17.1 million): He's running wild on the bases, with 33 thefts already (37 all of last year). This spryness is quite a surprise considering he turns 35 in October. He's hitting under .300, but his average on balls in play (.322) is the second lowest it's been during his eight big-league seasons.

Johan Santana, P, Mets ($17 million): He's lost about two miles per hour on his fastball from 2006, but nothing relative to last year. The K rate is down and walks are up, but still sit in solid territory. Remember, he's been much better historically in the second half.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Red Sox ($19 million): The power has bounced back somewhat (17.8 percent of fly balls now clear the wall vs. 23.5 percent in 2006). He's striking out 25 percent of the time (19 percent last year). He's still very good, but, at 36, clearly in decline.

Jason Giambi, 1B, Yankees ($21 million): He was dead weight that the Yanks were finally going to be clear of next year. But now they might consider taking that $22-million option ($5 million buyout). His strikeout rate is down from 26 percent of at bats to 18.6 percent. And he's hitting homers on 18 percent of fly balls (14 percent last year).

Sell

Mike Hampton, P, Braves ($16): He's thrown 69 big league innings since 2004, during which time he's earned $55 million (including this year). That's about $800,000 per inning.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers ($15.7): He's been out since May 6 and his rehab assignment lasted four innings after he woke up yesterday with more pain.

By David Ferris

Gary Sheffield is finally healthy, Adam Lind is finally getting a chance to play, Matt Garza is finally living up to his potential. The waiting might be the hardest part in this fantasy pursuit of ours, but it’s time to enjoy some profit. Get a comfy chair and your favorite summer drink and let’s survey some movers and shakers in the American League landscape.

Hitters

BUY

Gary Sheffield, OF/DH, Tigers: He says his shoulder is finally healthy, and the Cardinals aren’t going to dispute the point – Sheffield thrashed them for six hits and a pair of homers over the last three days. It should be a fun offensive summer in Motown, with Sheffield healthy and Curtis Granderson coming on against left-handers.

Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays: He’s probably just an AL-only play for now as the Jays are keeping him away from left-handed pitching, but there’s still a lot to like here (.365/.420/.587 line at Triple-A, then two homers in his first week back in Toronto). Lind was dealing with a sore neck earlier in the season, but that’s no longer holding him back.

SELL

Delmon Young, OF, Twins: He’ll be back in the mix when the Twins get back to AL stadiums, but it’s a definite red flag when Ron Gardenhire leaves Young on the bench for the NL trips. Young is aggressive on the bases despite a mediocre steal rate, and his batting eye has improved in his second full year, but a .366 slugging percentage won’t cut it, especially from a corner outfield spot.

Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox: A cranky back cost him a couple of games this week, and it’s the same injury that kept him out most of 2007. It’s probably a good time to see what Crede’s .270 average and 15 homers will bring on the open market.

HOLD

Jermaine Dye, OF, White Sox: He loves the home cooking (.331, 10 homers), and you normally see a summer spike from Dye (his two best OPS months are July and August). Get the jetstream fired up on the South Side and let’s put up some crooked numbers.

Pitchers

BUY

Matt Garza, SP, Rays: He’s always had the fastball to be successful, he’s starting to trust his other pitches more, and when it all clicks, batters don’t have much of a shot (note the two 10-strikeout games over the last month, not to mention Thursday’s one-hitter and five excellent turns out of seven). The Rays have a very bright future if they can find a way to keep Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Garza healthy for the next few seasons.

SELL

Vicente Padilla, SP, Rangers: He’s found a way to cheat the Arlington undertow this year, albeit 10 of his starts have come on the road. If you’re like us, you’ll side with gravity and be wary of Padilla’s ordinary career line (4.21 E.R.A., 1.38 ratio, .266 batting average against). Trot his 10-3 record and 3.74 E.R.A. around your league and see if someone will nibble.

HOLD

Dan Wheeler, RP, Rays: He’s got a closing profile (.178 E.R.A., 0.93 ratio, .161 average against), and the Rays might need him to do just that for a while as 38-year-old Troy Percival deals with a balky hamstring. Cleveland’s Masa Kobayashi is another intriguing target for the save speculators in the crowd; he’s moved to the No. 2 spot in the Tribe’s bullpen, and Joe Borowski is far from a sure bet (from a health or efficiency standpoint).

By Michael Salfino

Last week Joba Chamberlain, pitching in the sixth inning of his start, struck out the Padres Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley, which promptly caused manager Joe Girardi to race out to the mound to remove him because he had reached his 100-pitch limit.

This emphasis on pitch counts is rumored to have started at the insistence of Dr. Frank Jobe to protect his patient, Steve Busby, back in the mid-1970s. But if the number of pitches thrown was strongly correlated to pitching injuries, we should have seen a sharp decline in them since. We have not.

There must be guys today who could pitch 300-innings like pitchers did 30 years ago. But finding out who those guys are is viewed as akin to dunking witches.

There's no record of actual pitch counts in 1974, but Nolan Ryan on June 14 faced 58 Red Sox hitters, striking out 19 and walking 10 in 13 innings. For his career, he averaged four pitches per batter. That night, his figure was likely higher; but it still conservatively puts him at 232 pitches.

There's no hope for a modern Ryan emerging today. Bill James recently wrote on his web site that he had an idea to track how many starters get the ball to the closer. But on the Sunday he started tracking, no one did. End of stat.

Note that last year's NL Cy Young Award winner, Jake Peavy of the Padres, recorded ONE OUT after the seventh inning all season.

The Busby-effect was immediate. Before the advent of tracking pitch counts, No. 1 starters averaged 261 innings pitched in 1975. By 1980, post-Busby, it had declined to 238. In 1990, it sat at 216. Today it's about 207.

Forget about attempting what Nolan Ryan did in 1974: 332.7 innings, 367 Ks, 202 walks and 1,392 batters faced. (Very conservatively assuming four pitches per batter, that's 133 pitches per his 42 starts.)

But the time is ripe for some smart team to get more innings out of their better pitchers by slowly working up to higher workloads. Perhaps not even more pitches or innings per start, but less time between starts. Or maybe it's simply a matter of getting pitchers to work more quickly. There could be a time limit for the human body to endure the effort of pitching as much as there is a pitch limit.

A good testing ground for any or all of this would be a small-market team that can't afford to keep their best pitchers anyway. Work them hard while you have them rather than coddling them so that he, his agent and future big-market team reap the benefits of your care. Are you listening Billy Beane?

Of course, some pitchers will go the Rich Harden route. But guys like Harden have always been eaten up by any workload and always will be.

Doubt it can be done? Japan famously pushes pitchers by getting them to throw more. They routinely toss 200 pitches in bullpen sessions between starts and they warm up after their team makes the second out and continue right to the mound between innings like their U.S. counterparts. There's no evidence that Japanese pitchers get hurt more than do those in the Major Leagues.

Whether artificial or not, some young pitchers are going to start hitting the virtual wall and thus are good candidates for early shutdown (like a healthy James Shields was last year).

Buy

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees: GM Brian Cashman will get nervous at about 150 innings, leaving Joba 108 for the rest of the year -- about what you'd expect from a normal No. 1 starter going forward.

Roy Halladay, Blue Jays: Already has five complete games and is on pace for 241 innings, not quite old school but as good as we can hope for these days. By the way, there's no evidence that workhorses of the past declined as the season wore on. Ryan's best months in 1974 were August and September, and the last 300-inning pitcher, Steve Carlton in 1980, also excelled late in that year.

Hold

Scott Kazmir, Rays: He throws a lot of pitches per inning, but is so dominant while healthy that you have to roll the dice that his elbow holds up. He's averaged 179 innings the last three years and thus far has logged just 62. Maybe his 2008 injury is behind him.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: I was surprised to see he wasn't babied last year: 178 innings. The Reds won't get the pacifier and crib out for him until about 200 or so -- leaving 105 more frames to enjoy.

Sell

Zack Greinke, Royals: Had 10 Ks last night, but is at 100 innings this year after just 122 in 2007 and 111 the year before. Greinke is still just 24. The new pitching rules call for no more than a 50-inning jump in yearly workload (20 is preferred).

By Michael Salfino

What 2008 shares with every other season, to the chagrin of fans and especially the managers and general managers they hound, is the seemingly sudden and dramatic performance decline of numerous stars.

Baseball provides a great chance to understand randomness. There's an interesting and lively book out right now, "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives," by Leonard Mlodinow, that gets into this in much more detail. But I'm going to do my best here to explain how randomness relates to baseball and, especially, our task of predicting player performance.

Mlodinow cites the Roman statesman Cicero for his belief "that an event could be anticipated and predicted even though its occurrence would be a result of blind chance." I note that 2,000 years later, Yogi Berra famously said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

That's the fine line we walk: recognizing there's a large element of randomness in all player performance while still projecting as narrow a range as possible going forward, assuming health and continued opportunity.

Consider Carlos Pena of the Rays, who homered once every 19 at-bats before last year, when he went yard once every 10.6 at-bats. Could this dramatic power boost have been a completely random event that Pena was just lucky enough to have happen to him?

His season was similar to Roger Maris' in 1961, when he went from a guy with good power to one who broke Babe Ruth's single-season homer record. Mlodinow, a physicist who teaches about randomness at Caltech, notes that Maris, before that 61-homer season, homered about once every 15 at-bats. If you had a Strat-O-Matic card of Maris that resulted in a homer 1/15th of the time and gave him 590 at-bats, and then played out seasons over and over, Mlodinow says you'd get 61 homers one time out of every 32 tries. He suggests that Maris had less to do with his 1961 season than did Lady Luck.

The lesson is to not be seduced by such random, outlying performance and expect it to repeat. So this year, we should have expected Pena to homer every 19 or so at-bats (his pre-2007 average). And in 2008, prior to his injury, Pena did exactly that (once ever 18.8 at-bats).

This is called "regression to the mean." In other words, the default projection is to expect a player to do what he's done before. That also holds true for guys like those below who are having terrible years. You just as easily "progress" to the mean assuming -- and this is the big assumption -- you get the same level of opportunities. Often, slumping hitters get benched and thus lose the chance to prove that their bad performance was just a random stretch of bad luck.

Be careful not to apply these principles of randomness blindly. Age, injury and lack of a suitable big-league track record can provide a reasonable basis for us to assume that current performance levels are less random and thus more sustainable. But beware of our human tendency to see patterns where none exist.

Now let's make some related recommendations.

Buy

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: His line-drive rate is higher than it's ever been: 21.1 percent. But he's hitting .236 on balls in play (.294 in '06 and '07). His .233 average is incredibly unlucky and will correct.

Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: Like Beltre, a higher line-drive rate and career-low average on balls in play doesn't make sense. Expect Crawford to hit well over .300 going forward.

Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: He's due to return to the active roster around the All-Star Break. We have to call a bottom on Jones. Blame the bum knee. Yes, he's fat, but the more relevant weight he's been dragging is all those random factors working against him.

Roy Oswalt, P, Astros: He's giving up homers on 20.6 percent of fly balls, twice the average rate. Yet his strikeout rate is up, arguing against a loss of stuff. Expect a major resurgence.

Hold

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: Still an extreme ground-ball hitter, but now without power (homers on just 7.1 percent of fly balls). At age 34, it's not coming back. The line-drive rate (16 percent) is also subpar, but you can be more bullish about that (and thus his average).

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels: Expectations remain too high. Even when healthy, which is rare, Kendrick is a high-average hitter with below-average speed and power. Steeply discount the minor-league slugging, which came in hitter's parks against weaker competion.

Sell

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: Few discounted the injury risk. Sometimes the fastball doesn't come back after Tommy John surgery and it hasn't yet even in the minors for Liriano.

Fausto Carmona, P, Indians: If he wasn't lucky in giving up homers on only 3.2 percent of fly balls, the results would be far worse. Walking twice as many as he Ks, Carmona has the profile of a guy hiding an injury.

By Michael Salfino

The American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) says baseball teams that have "synchronized" with their time zones are more more likely to win when playing a team that hasn't had at least one day to adjust for every time zone crossed.

Major League Baseball funded this study of "circadian advantage" after a more limited one in 2004 suggested it impacted the outcome of games.

This doesn't necessarily mean that teams traveling to the East Coast from the West (or vice versa) are at a disadvantage. Sometimes, as was the case last night when Arizona visited New York and thumped the Mets, the visiting team actually has the advantage. The Mets were traveling back from San Diego while the Diamondbacks had been on Eastern Standard Time since June 6.

The AASM looked at teams traveling across more than one time zone between 1997 and 2006, finding 5,046 instances. Teams traveling two time zones won 48 percent of the time. And when teams traveled three time zones with less than the three days needed to adjust, they won just 40 percent of the time.

While that seems like a slam dunk, 3,681 of these games combined home-field advantage with circadian advantage. The author of the study, Dr. Chris Winter of the Martha Jefferson Hospital Sleep Medicine Center in Charlottesville, Va., told the L.A. Times that, "It is important to realize that the home-field advantage, as it has been defined in the past, probably includes a fair amount of circadian advantage."

However, the winning percentage declines dramatically when looking at only games where the visiting team had the circadian advantage (wins in 619 of 1,365 games). Ideally, we'd isolate games where road teams had a three-time-zone advantage (like the Diamondbacks last night) and see if that .450 winning percentage moves closer to the .600 we see overall. However, that data is not included in the study.

This study does provide a reasonable basis for expecting the performance of teams and players to suffer when they are at a three-time-zone disadvantage and for that decline to last until "synchronization" has taken place (up to three games later).

The sleep academy says athletes can overcome these effects by readjusting their sleep schedule before traveling (by going to bed earlier). That does not seem like a reasonable request for young, jet-setting millionaire athletes, especially when combined with the recommendation to "avoid rigorous exercise within six hours of bedtime." How is a baseball player supposed to do that when games sometimes end past 11 p.m. local time? That means going to bed at 5 a.m. local time and waking up well past noon. So forget about day games after night games.

Usually I make related recommendations here. But avoiding guys the first day or two after they travel multiple time zones isn't forward looking enough for our format. So let's take this opportunity to make more general recommendations.

Buy

Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: He's hitting .240 on balls in play (not including homers). Average is .300 and he hit .360 last year. Bet he's being monumentally unlucky.

Pedro Martinez, P, Mets: He's hitting 93 mph on the gun. He's made hitters look silly in the high 80s. The shoulder is fine. If everything else stays healthy, he will be a monster going forward.

Ryan Franklin, P, Cardinals: More proof that closer is the most overrated role in baseball. Franklin is far from dominating but can manage three outs without yielding multi-run leads and thus will continue holding off ingénue Chris Perez.

Hold

Aaron Harang, P, Reds: Fly-ball and line-drive rates are way up, meaning more homers and hits. Normalize the batting average allowed on balls in play, and his E.R.A. is 3.78. Instead it's a half run higher. Expect improvement, but don't buy a guy allowing seeds 25 percent of the time.

J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox: He's converting 18 percent of fly balls into homers, double last year's rate but in line with 2004 and 2005. He's getting fat pitches hitting in front of Manny Ramirez as long as David Ortiz (wrist) is out (perhaps all year).

Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals: All big leaguers are in the 99.9th percentile of baseball ability. Ludwick has never gotten a real chance before, so we don't know that this is a fluke. There's been plus power in past years over small sample sizes. His home park is not friendly, but he's even slugging .580 there (.736 on the road).

Sell

Brett Myers, P, Phillies: He's always allowed an inordinate amount of homers. His rate this year of 18 percent of fly balls landing over the wall is not significantly higher than past seasons, and he's in the wrong park for a correction.

Joba Chamberlain, P, Yankees: Take all reliever stats and inflate everything about 30 percent when they go into a starting role. He has to learn to pace himself and mix in more secondary stuff to hitters seeing him three and four times a game. This takes time.

Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers: His power spiked last year and he's held those dramatic gains in '08 -- homers on 24 percent of flyballs. He's in the right park for that. But the .380 on balls in play is unsustainable; so expect a big average correction.

Justin Verlander, P, Tigers: He's allowing 36 percent of baserunners to score instead of the 30 we'd expect. But the declining K-rate is very troubling. Only 12 percent of his strikes are swinging, which is below league average. Seize the first selling opportunity.

By Michael Salfino

Even the old-guard -- whose VCRs still blink "12:00," whose Pentium II PCs remain unopened in their boxes and who view the web merely as some spun silk in their backyard -- have adopted one "new-age" baseball stat: on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS).

Of course, OPS has been widely cited for more than a quarter century now. Let's dust if off by objectively assessing not what a hitter's OPS actually is, but rather what it should be.

Back in 2005, JC Bradbury of HardballTimes.com introduced PrOPS (predicted OPS). He concluded that line-drive rate, fly-ball ratio and rates of walks, strikeouts, hit-by-pitch and homers could be used to predict a player's OPS. An adjustment is also made for the hitter's home park -- the more homer-friendly, for example, the higher the PrOPS.

Our friends at Baseball Info Solutions, which provides stats to various big-league clubs, provide the raw data that we plug into Bradbury's formula. The result is a list of PrOPS that we then subtract from actual OPS to see which hitters have the greatest variance.

We assume that hitters will continue to perform more in line with their predicted rather than actual OPS. So the guys who have a PrOPS much greater than actual should be be more productive going forward. Vice versa for the guys who are arguably getting lucky with their actual OPS.

Now let's use this data to make some player recommendations. All stats through Tuesday.

Buy

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: His OPS should be .829, not .648. Remember, .829 is nothing special for an AL 1B in the best hitter's park in the league. His manager threw him along with about half the ChiSox lineup under the bus last week; but Ozzie Guillen has little choice but to play Konerko. Cautionary note: his rate of homers on fly balls has declined in five straight seasons.

Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: His actual .778 should be a more respectable .919. But when you strike out 30 percent of plate appearances, these things happen. He's hit between .328 and .375 on balls in play (excluding homers) since 2004. This year: .240.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: I predicted in a Mets piece this winter that Delgado would clock in this year with a OPS over .800. So I take some solace in the fact that PrOPS says he should be at .827, not .696.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: Even factoring his home park, which is tough on righty power hitters, Beltre should be sporting a golden .902 OPS, not his rather pedestrian .771.

Hold

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: His .989 OPS is almost exactly what PrOPS predicts. His line-drive rate is low: 13.8 percent. But his fly balls go a long way -- 19.4 percent are homers (average is about 10 percent).

Jason Bay, OF, Pirates: The bounce back is confirmed by our data: He should be sitting at .942 right now, a few thousandths of a percentage point lower than actual. The power has come back: 16.7 percent of fly balls are homers. Note the .204 average with runners in scoring position (RISP) and hope for a RBI correction.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers: I'd love to put a "Buy" on a guy with his kind of track record. But our stat says his OPS should be .816, which isn't what anyone -- especially the Tigers -- paid for. Bad trends: fewer line drives, more ground balls, 50-percent decline in homers on fly balls and awful production with RISP (.218).

Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies: He should be at an even sicker 1.100 rather the 1.092 he sported on Tuesday. The power has spiked, not unprecedented for a hitter turning 30. I think he can hold his homer rate above 15 percent of fly balls (it's about 20 percent now). And he'll keep hitting doubles (21 percent line-drive rate).

Sell

Fred Lewis, OF, Giants: He looks OK at .836 actual, but PrOPS docks him to .712, unacceptable for a left fielder. Lewis is an extreme ground-ball hitter -- 11th highest rate in baseball. His average line-drive rate suggests we must discount his .374 average on balls in play.

B.J. Upton, OF, Devil Rays: This is a tough one for me. I see TNT in those wrists despite the slight frame. But we have to listen to the numbers here. And PrOPS says he should be at .749, not .850. Can he continue defying his high strikeout rate by converting a high rate of balls in play into hits? He has for about a year and a half now.

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: Another guy who might be able to overcome his high K-rate. Some hitters do defy that consistently. But Kemp hasn't got enough of a track record to trust here. Err on the side of caution and respect his PrOPS of .744 more than his .822 actual.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 6/3
Next Update: 6/10

Starting Pitchers

1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: Flashed dominant form Sunday.
2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
3. *Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
6. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
7. Scott Kazmir, Rays
NOTE: Cy contender if he's healthy.
8. Cole Hamels, Phillies
9. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
10. *Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. James Shields, Rays
13. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
14. Erik Bedard, Mariners
15. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
16. Aaron Harang, Reds
17. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
18. John Lackey, Angels
19. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: At this point, give him ace treatment.
20. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
21. Tim Hudson, Braves
22. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
23. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
24. John Maine, Mets
25. Justin Verlander, Tigers
26. Cliff Lee, Indians
27. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
28. Roy Oswalt, Astros
29. Matt Cain, Giants
30. Ted Lilly, Cubs
31. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
NOTE: Had strikeout pitch working in May.
32. Ben Sheets, Brewers
33. Ervin Santana, Angels
34. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
35. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
36. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
37. *Chris Young, Padres
38. Jered Weaver, Angels
39. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
40. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
41. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
42. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
43. Brad Penny, Dodgers
44. John Danks, White Sox
45. Matt Garza, Rays
46. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NOTE: Control isn't fully harnessed yet.
47. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
48. Brian Bannister, Royals
49. Johnny Cueto, Reds
50. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
51. Rich Harden, Athletics
52. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
NOTE: Crafty righties can do it, too.
53. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
54. Joe Saunders, Angels
55. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
56. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
57. Joe Blanton, Athletics
58. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
59. Gil Meche, Royals
60. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
61. Zack Greinke, Royals
62. Shawn Hill, Senators
63. Tim Redding, Senators
64. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
NOTE: Unsung hero of New York staff.
65. Greg Smith, Athletics
66. Jason Bergmann, Senators
67. Oliver Perez, Mets
68. Andrew Miller, Marlins
69. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
70. Jon Lester, Red Sox
71. Kevin Slowey, Twins
72. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
73. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
74. Aaron Laffey, Indians
75. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
76. Brett Myers, Phillies
77. Scott Olsen, Marlins
78. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
79. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
80. Greg Maddux, Padres
81. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
NOTE: Nice start, but park will tax anyone.
82. Dana Eveland, Athletics
83. *Homer Bailey, Reds
84. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
85. *Scott Baker, Twins
86. Manny Parra, Brewers
87. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
88. *Jake Westbrook, Indians
89. Randy Wolf, Padres
90. Garrett Olson, Orioles
91. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
92. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
93. Jose Contreras, White Sox
94. Mike Mussina, Yankees
95. John Lannan, Nationals
96. Jon Garland, Angels
97. Phil Dumatrait, Pirates
98. Aaron Cook, Rockies
99. Ian Snell, Pirates
NOTE: Is there a physical problem here?
100. *Nick Blackburn, Twins
101. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
102. Jorge Campillo, Braves
103. Jeff Francis, Rockies
104. *Rich Hill, Cubs
105. Edwin Jackson, Rays
106. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
107. Boof Bonser, Twins
108. Paul Byrd, Indians
109. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
110. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
111. Tom Glavine, Braves
112. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
113. *Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
114. Odalis Perez, Senators
115. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
116. Livan Hernandez, Twins
117. Luke Hochevar, Royals
118. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
119. Miguel Batista, Mariners
120. Shawn Chacon, Astros
121. Nate Robertson, Tigers
122. Paul Maholm, Pirates
123. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
124. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
125. Zach Duke, Pirates
126. Barry Zito, Giants
127. Braden Looper, Cardinals
128. Kenny Rogers, Tigers

Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Billy Wagner, Mets
4. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
5. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
7. Joakim Soria, Royals
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. J.J. Putz, Mariners
10. George Sherrill, Orioles
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
NOTE: Improved ballclub will feed his bottom line.
12. Matt Capps, Pirates
13. Jose Valverde, Astros
14. Kerry Wood, Cubs
15. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
16. Brad Lidge, Phillies
NOTE: He's earned our trust back.
17. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
18. Huston Street, Athletics
19. *John Smoltz, Braves
20. Brian Wilson, Giants
21. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
22. *Troy Percival, Rays
23. Jon Rauch, Senators
24. Todd Jones, Tigers
25. Joe Borowski, Indians
26. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
NOTE: Look for a summer trade.
27. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
28. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
29. Salomon Torres, Brewers
30. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
31. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
32. Heath Bell, Padres
33. Dan Wheeler, Rays
34. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
35. Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
36. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
37. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
NOTE: Saves sleeper if Fuentes is moved.
38. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
39. Manny Acosta, Braves
40. John Grabow, Pirates
41. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
42. Chris Perez, Cardinals
43. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
44. *Chad Cordero, Senators
45. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
46. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
47. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
48. *Santiago Casilla, Athletics
49. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
50. Aquilino Lopez, Tigers
51. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
52. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
53. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
54. J.P. Howell, Rays
NOTE: Reinventing himself in the bullpen.
55. Doug Brocail, Astros
56. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
57. Blaine Boyer, Braves
58. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
59. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
60. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
61. Guillermo Mota, Brewers
62. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
63. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
64. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
65. *Joey Devine, Athletics
66. Matt Albers, Orioles
67. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
68. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
69. Scot Shields, Angels
70. Tom Gordon, Phillies
71. Bob Howry, Cubs
72. Scott Schoeneweis, Mets
73. Keiichi Yabu, Giants
74. *Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
75. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
76. *Leo Nunez, Royals