Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

Early bird fantasy baseball -- 2008's fantasy bums, Part 2

By Michael Salfino

Back to the bums, inspired again by Gene McCaffrey's great Wise Guy Baseball Annual. If you missed Part I, here it is. Next week, last year's bum starters and relievers. The analysis of the second basemen and shortstops below can also be found in the profiles I wrote for the "Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball 2009 Draft Guide," which will be available wherever magazines are sold beginning in March.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: He's not going to be cheap in the New York market (too many Yankees fans). And it would have been more helpful if the power numbers were down as appreciably as was the average. Fantasy owners don't price average well considering that it's so much harder to make up ground there even after half the league has packed it in (losing players can actually help weaker teams in average). The 97 RBI of 2007 were a product of a better Yankees lineup than we can reasonably expect in 2009. And he's an extreme ground-ball hitter, so don't project even 20 homers. But the .320 average (or thereabouts) should return and be all the more valuable given his low rate of walks (26 last year in 597 ABs).

Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays: Here are Hill's rates of fly balls that have cleared the wall since 2005 (in order): 2.4 percent, 3.4 percent, 8.0 percent, 2.3 percent. Clearly, that 2007 figure is the outlier. If Hill doesn't hit 15 homers, he's of no use because he doesn't run or control the strike zone (which limits his average). Hill's being sold as a bum to own in many quarters because he's at the right age for a peak year (26). But we've already seen that peak. Even aside from his concussion issues, he's just 50/50 to have a starting job come Memorial Day.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians: At 22, we expect growing pains. But he put it behind him after being promoted back from the minors with a .320/.398/.464 stretch to end the season. Cabrera profiles as a No. 2 hitter, but will need to improve his rate of 3.8 pitches per plate appearances for the stat-savvy Indians to consider moving him back to the top of the lineup. There's a decent chance for double-digits in homers and/or steals. He did grab 25 bags in 105 minor-league games in '07, but hasn't run much in the bigs. Our friends at Baseball Info Solutions confirm what our eyes say: he's a wizard with the glove. Defense at second keeps your guy playing through a normal slump.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: The power came back late in the year, presumably after the torn labrum healed. He slugged .516 in September. He likely hasn't touched his ceiling yet at age 24. Zimmerman doesn't meet the strict "bum" criteria. He's not going to be discounted. But he's a potential star who hasn't peaked yet and who already has been a productive player. Usually, you have to pay a premium to speculate on the promise of greatness that Zimmerman reasonably holds. One more big injury, though, and he's dead to me.

Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels: He only qualifies at third. But if you stick a guy with four homers in his last 1,023 plate appearances at a corner, you'd better get plus power from your middle infielders and/or catcher, and that's expensive. Figgins walks at a high rate for a guy with no power (16 XBH in '08). In fact, he's one of just six guys since 2000 with an isolated slugging (slugging minus average) under .100 and an average of .295 or worse to have at least a .350 on-base percentage (minimum 1,000 plate appearances). The others: Jason Kendall, David Eckstein, Jamey Carroll, Mark McLemore and Ryan Theriot. Even if Figgins gets to .350 again, his OPS will be barely .700 and that's not something any team, let alone a contender, should start at third. Why hold your breath hoping the Angels don't figure that out?

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies: He's discounted relative to last year, but appropriately. The 30 homers of 2007 were never sustainable. He converts about 6 percent of fly balls into homers most years. Age 30 is about when many base stealers start slowing down. I'll give him .280 with 10 homers and 40 bags, but he's consistently priced higher even in expert drafts/auctions.

Khalil Greene, SS, Cardinals: Finally out of Petco. But Greene hit significantly better at home (.624 OPS) than on the road (.529) last year. The smart guys will look at 2007 and note his road OPS that season was .840 and project him closer to that. Career splits? .802 OPS on the road with 50 homers, versus 34 at home. In 500 at-bats, Greene, an extreme fly-ball hitter, should hit 15 to 20 homers. Project the low end of that range given that Busch Stadium has suppressed homers the past three years almost as much as Petco (minus 16 percent vs. minus 19 percent in San Diego).

Julio Lugo, SS, Red Sox: A true test for the Bum Strategy is stepping up to buy Lugo and walking away from the table happy. Boston couldn't give him away this winter. His on-base percentage wasn't bad (.355), but he can't sniff the top of the Red Sox lineup after his 2007 (.294 OBP). If you start him for the speed upside, you will pay a price in other categories (nine homers in his last 833 at-bats). He's even a minus defensively - 22nd in The Fielding Bible shortstop, plus/minus ranks.

Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks. Another true bum. The smart guys run away because they've been laughing at the Diamondbacks for giving him all that money instead of just keeping Carlos Quentin. No one expects the steals to bounce back. But he's a smart player and maybe the opportunities will be there for the taking again like they were in 2007. McCaffrey notes how Keith Hernandez said last year that any player with brains should be able to steal 15 bases just catching teams when they're sleeping. While the conventional wisdom now is that Arizona doesn't run, they did under manager Bob Melvin in 2007 (fifth in the NL in attempts).

Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Not a bum. When you regress from your career year to basically your career averages, you're just yourself again. Don't expect or pay a penny more for Rowand than what he actually earned last year.

Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees: He slugged .424 last year and is 35, so this could be the beginning of the end. However, he's a Hall of Fame-caliber player when you factor in Japan. Joe Girardi's loyalty to Matsui is unknown and probably not worth banking on. So he'll have to hit early to stay in the lineup. There's risk, but a very reasonable path to .300-20-100, and I'll buy if the discount on those numbers is at least 20 percent.

Early bird fantasy baseball -- Which of last year's bums will be this year's heroes?

By Michael Salfino

Nothing puts you in the mood for baseball faster than having to sit around for weeks with a rack of broken ribs, watching the Major League Baseball Network between pain-killing rounds and reading every preseason baseball magazine in sight.

While it's always a treat when my friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey sends me his excellent Wise Guy Baseball annual, I couldn't rip open the Fed Ex envelope this year fast enough. It's dogged-eared now as I've carried it with me from room to room as I convalesce. I've been unable to muffle laughter on more than one occasion, pain be damned. And Gene's player-by-player tour through the big leagues is as thought-provoking as ever.

Gene long ago introduced the label of "last year's bums" as a fantasy baseball drafting strategy (or for auctions, if you prefer). And his book always gets me thinking about who is a bum from last year (cheap relative to his 2008 price) and whether I want to own him.

So here's a two-part list of my bums, with arguments for and against. Next week, we'll look at 2008 bum starters and relievers.

Kenji Johjima, C, Mariners: He was incredibly unlucky on batting average on balls in lay (BABIP) -- lowest of any player with 225 or more ABs. Everyone except the Mariners, who will find out soon enough, knows that prospect Jeff Clement can't catch. I'd say chances are 70/30 that Johjima gets 400 at-bats, and it's more likely than not that he hits .280 again with middling power. For mixed leaguers, 500 at-bats are a 50/50 proposition and worth the risk of a last pick or even reserve selection.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: He's not a bum, but he'll be significantly cheaper than in 2008, having dropped from 50 bombs to 34. And we see his rate of homers on fly balls fell from 24 percent to 18 percent (average is about 11 percent). I don't think 24 percent will be his Fielder's peak (Ryan Howard has been as high as 38 percent). But if we split the difference last year (21 percent of fly balls are now homers) and change nothing else, he hits 40 bombs. So last year was the power floor and if he's not priced accordingly, buy.

Carlos Guillen, OF, Tigers: Actually opens the year qualifying only at first and third. But he's slated to play the outfield. His decline looks like a normal aging trend to me. The power has gone from average (homers on 11.4 percent of fly balls) to below (8.1 percent). His BABIP was consistently around .350 (average is .300) and now has been just below .320 for two straight years. There's as much downside as upside and his preseason draft/auction value hasn't slipped enough for me to buy.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: The always good RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide has him at $17 in an NL-only league, which is right at the cusp of even being drafted in a normal mixed league. Would I take Helton with say my last pick? Well, his line-drive rate was actually higher in '08 than in his last good year: 2004. But that's deceiving in assessing average upside, because Helton's homer rate was twice as great in '04. His .298 BABIP in '08 was unlucky. Expect .310 this year. Monitor spring training reports on his recovery from back surgery. No matter what you read about how great he feels, the power upside remains 15-to-20, even in Colorado. Health permitting, Helton's worth pulling out of the discount bin.

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Leagues virtually ignore one bad year from an established slugger, but they rightfully punish the guy who slips two years in a row. Konerko's stock will be pounded. The park is great for homers and he's still just 33, though; so I'll try to catch that falling knife.

Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Yankees: My No. 1 bum, especially if Xavier Nady doesn't get traded before your draft. Given the age of the Yankee regulars and the frequency of DL trips nowadays, 400 at-bats are about guaranteed even without a trade. The .219 last year was really unlucky. He'll hit .250ish and that stings less with all his walks (fewer at-bats). He's also at a peak age (28), in a good lineup and swinging in a great hitting environment when batting from the left side. Here are the cheapest 30 homers on the board.

Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians: Most of these bums have quirky stats. Garko's line-drive rate went up but rate of extra base hits went down. I agree with Gene that we need a "hit velocity" stat. There's too much wiggle room in "line drive." Garko is viewed as a reserve. But aside from the usual run of injuries, ask whether Garko is a better hitter than Kelly Shoppach. If he is, Victor Martinez catches. Shoppach strikes out twice as frequently as Garko.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays: Expecting him to hit .282 like in 2007 was crazy. But .260-to-.270 is reasonable if he can cut down his Ks to the still very breezy rate of 142 in 490 at-bats from '07. (Last year, it was 166 in 490 ABs). Hitting more homers will also boost the average; but putting 29 percent of fly balls over the wall like in 2007 is not a reasonable expectation. He did hit 21 homers in 83 games after returning from the broken finger. If they're not making you pay for 35 to 40 homers, buy.

Why the Cardinals will win the Super Bowl

By Michael Salfino

The Cardinals being in the Super Bowl has the media furiously searching for story lines to sex up the matchup with Pittsburgh.

Before examining the game, let's look at the sidebars.

The Steelers are a seven-point favorite and the line has held steady since it opened more than a week ago. If they win as expected, and looking at the money line, you see the oddsmakers are giving Pittsburgh about a 70-percent chance to prevail straight up, we're going to be asked to consider whether the Steelers are the most successful franchise in the history of sports.

Isn't it enough to consider them the most successful franchise in the history of the NFL? They have an ironclad case for that, irrespective of the outcome of Sunday's game. But there's no way they are even in the same area code as the Yankees in baseball or the Celtics in basketball. Pittsburgh went 25 years without a Lombardi Trophy and was a laughingstock their first 38 years of existence (one playoff appearance, seven winning seasons).

If the Cardinals win, the sidebar will be Kurt Warner as Hall of Fame QB.

There aren't "shooting star" QBs in the Hall of Fame, because they are so rarely done in by injury and generally play their way out of the game. Warner has but four seasons with more than 11 games and a paltry 85 career starts.

We can make a reasonable argument that he's been a product of his environment. He's played in perfect throwing conditions whenever he's excelled. He's been surrounded by Hall of Fame skill talent, first in St. Louis and now in Arizona. And he's arguably had the best weapon in football as the focal point of his attack in his two Super Bowl years - Marshall Faulk with the 1999 Rams and now Larry Fitzgerald. Warner has never been widely accepted as the best QB at any point in his career, a highly subjective yet important standard.

So who will win?

Our computer, programmed with regular-season key stats, says Steelers by 5. The Steelers are the number one team in the NFL this year in our No. 1 key stat - net YPA (yards per pass attempt, including sacks).

Their total, though, is just below the 2.00 yards differential that we expect from a championship club. It is about a yard and a quarter better than the Cardinals (who are 13th in net YPA), which translates to Steelers by about 8 points.

If we look at all plays, the Steelers are still first, but their advantage over the Cardinals shrinks to a half-yard per game.

Pittsburgh is a poor running team, as are the Cardinals. But Arizona knows this and emphasizes the pass much more than does Pittsburgh. The Steelers aren't a good passing team, either, because they can't protect the QB (29th in sack percentage allowed and 11th out of 12 playoff teams this postseason).

The Cardinals yielded 36 passing TDs in the regular season and then were demolished by Donovan McNabb and the Eagles in the last 20 minutes in Arizona. For Ben Roethlisberger to take advantage, he'll need a reasonably healthy Hines Ward (knee) and time to throw.

Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast can get on play-calling rolls when he outguesses offenses in mixing up blitzes and coverage looks. By this I mean that he'll blitz when you flood the field with wide receivers (thus killing your QB), and then drop eight in coverage when you keep all but two or three receivers in to block.

It is extremely difficult to consistently coach up deficient talent with this kind of mental acuity/guesswork. Sooner or later, as happened against the Eagles, the birds come home to roost.

We've noted in Football by the Numbers in the past how top passing offenses generally get the better of top passing defenses. In the NFL, good defense is more largely dependent on poor offensive execution.

The Steelers had three games this year against teams in the top 10 in YPA gained - the Chargers twice and the Texans (on opening day). All three games were in Pittsburgh. The first two, the Steelers defense dominated. The last one, against San Diego in the divisional round, was a battle clearly won by the Chargers' offense. Do not believe this Steelers pass defense is bulletproof.

Note also that the Cardinals have had six games against top 10 defenses in YPA allowed (Pittsburgh is No. 1) and have performed better than NFL average in that stat in four of these games, with 14 TD passes.

Prediction time: The Steelers get your QB not with numbers but by confusing your blockers, who can't seem to figure out which guys from the front seven will be charging and which will be dropping.

Remember, though, that Ken Whisenhunt is the former Steelers offensive coordinator and knows this Steelers defense inside-out, because he practiced against it. The Steelers' scheme has not changed since then, as defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has been in the NFL for over a half century.

The Cardinals will look to generate big passing plays outside the numbers to Fitzgerald, who is so physically dominant that he's always open, no matter how many guys are flanking him. Will Fitzgerald win these battles? If the safeties are too conservative in defending that, Anquan Boldin will kill them on slants and in the seams.

Arizona will get about 400 yards of offense, like the Chargers did, and about 25 points. So the Steelers are going to need to attack. But that's not their game given their pass-protection woes. However, Roethlisberger is certainly capable, especially when improvising and sliding out of the pocket. I do not think enough time has passed for Ward to recover from his sprained (i.e., partially torn) MCL, and that's the difference here as Pittsburgh comes up just short, disappointing what will basically be a home crowd (but not home playing conditions). Cardinals 27, Steelers 24.

Football by the Numbers -- It should be an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl

By Michael Salfino

Playing at home has been worthless thus far in the NFL postseason, with higher seeds going just 3-5 thus far.

Before we look at the conference championship games in detail, let's note, gleefully, that my Stat Power Index (or rankings, if you prefer) are 7-0 thus far in identifying winners simply based on where teams ranked in the four NFL stats that most closely correlate to winning this decade - net yards per play (including sacks), net red-zone possessions, net third-down percentage and net interception percentage.

We haven't done so well in picking winners straight up as we have against the spread, but that's mostly because we add three points for the home team (following standard oddsmaking procedure) when home field has meant less than nothing thus far in 2009. Looking back further, home teams in the Divisional Round the past four years are 7-9.

The Steelers have lost four of five AFC championship games at home since 1994. And since 1992, all home teams are 18-20 in conference championship games. Against the spread, favorites (home or road) are 17-15 (not including ties).

Now let's look at the games in condensed form using our key stats and then make some specific unit/player recommendations.

Eagles (-3) at Cardinals: For most of the year, the Eagles have been our No. 1 Stat Power team. The Cardinals were tied (14th overall) with Atlanta and actually slightly ahead of the very overrated Panthers (17th) in our key stats. Since the Cards beat the Falcons at Arizona, neither of their playoff wins qualifies as true upsets. Beating the Eagles would qualify. The Cards are getting the full three points for being at home, but how much of an advantage is that? The conditions are perfect for the Eagles' pass-oriented offense. Yes, they're perfect for Kurt Warner, too, but the Eagles' pass defense is top-shelf and the Cardinals, conversely, yielded 36 regular-season TD passes. Neither the Falcons nor the Panthers were designed to exploit poor pass defense, but the Eagles are. Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast vs. Andy Reid is an interesting chess match (just not in the final two minutes, when Reid tends to zone out). Eagles defensive guru Jim Johnson will make sure the Eagles put bodies on Kurt Warner, who, like all QBs, does not like contact. Anquan Boldin will not recover in time to play effectively, and there's no way the Eagles fall asleep on Larry Fitzgerald like Carolina did last week. Eagles 31, Cardinals 17.

Ravens (+6) at Steelers: The Ravens are the Steelers' match on a neutral field. So this line should be Ravens +3. But Baltimore is banged up after the trench warfare in Tennessee. DE Terrell Suggs (shoulder) isn't talking like he'll play and Suggs is needed to exploit the Steelers' great deficiency in pass protection -- 29th in rate of sacks allowed; Pittsburgh allowed six sacks in 64 attempts against the Ravens this year. The Steelers got their running game going this year, but were last in football in yards per rush in the first half of games this year. They will not run it well against the Ravens. A key will be which QB makes the bigger mistakes. The Steelers had a higher interception rate than the Ravens, and Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco has yet to throw a pick this postseason (first rookie QB to win two postseason games in NFL history). The over/under is 34 points and I'd be surprised if 30 are scored. The Ravens were lucky to win a bruising game last week and Sunday will be time to pay the check. Steelers 17, Ravens 10.

Buy

Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: This is the week where the Cardinals backfield woes haunt them. McNabb will play like a Hall of Famer, which he might be considering this is his fifth NFC championship game and he's never lost an opening postseason game.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: The Ravens are obsessed with Hines Ward all the time for his chippy blocking and will be doubly so after the last game, when he burned them with eight catches for 107 yards. Holmes will thus get more room to roam versus a banged-up Ravens secondary.

Hold

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: He'll be relegated to decoy duty, but that's of huge value to the rest of the offensive unit. Let half the team follow Westbrook around while everyone else is single-covered, if they're covered at all.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: Philip Rivers piled up some garbage-time stats on Sunday. Otherwise, the Steelers' defense was typically top-notch. Flacco has made but a handful of plays in two weeks and is not in any way winning games. He does get credit for not losing them, though.

Sell

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: The Eagles' motto on Sunday will be, "Anyone but Fitzgerald."

Football by the Numbers -- A scientific preview of the 4 divisional playoff games

By Michael Salfino

Last week, all four road teams were favored when the Vegas lines opened. But this Divisional Week, the NFL playoffs have a more traditional bent, with each home team expected by the oddsmakers to prevail.

In this expanded playoff edition of Football by the Numbers, we'll use the computer's analysis of all the data in our Key Stat Power Rankings to once again forecast the games. And then we'll crunch the numbers to project how specific units and/or individual performers will fare in Week 19.

Going back to 1993, the average victory in this divisional round is about 14 points. Home teams are 44-16 since then, but just 6-6 the past three years (3-9 against the spread).

There's only been one home underdog in this round the past 15 years - Carolina vs. Dallas in 1997, when the Panthers prevailed 26-17 as a three-point dog.

For the wild-card round, our Key Stat Power Rankings were fed into the computer and the program identified the winners in each game - it expected the Cardinals and the Chargers to win by three and four points, respectively. But I foolishly discounted the computer in my prediction of a Falcons win, as I couldn't get past the 36 TD passes the Cardinals allowed, nor their inability to run the ball and thus exploit the Falcons' biggest statistical weakness.

The first game of the weekend is the Ravens at the Titans. The computer says it's a pick 'em, with the Ravens three points better on a neutral field. The oddsmakers say the Titans by three. Remember, though, these lines are inflated because of the history of home-team success in this round. It's also very rare for a rookie QB to win two straight road playoff games, though the Ravens are the rare team that doesn't count on its signal caller to be a decisive factor. The Ravens were clearly better over the course of the year in our key stats. Defense travels better than offense in the playoffs because crowd noise is not a factor in how defense performs. When the teams met in early October, Kerry Collins was terrible until bailed out by a questionable roughing call that extended a winning drive in the final minutes in the 13-10 Titans win. Joe Flacco also struggled then, but is better now and a rookie at this point in name only. Collins will make two or three bad plays and one of those will lead to a Ravens TD that wins it. Ravens 16, Titans 10.

Cardinals at Panthers is the game most likely to be a blowout, I agree. But the computer says, "Not so fast." The Panthers finished the season 22nd in net interception percentage and 22nd in net-third-down percentage. The Cards were similarly bad in those categories, but these teams were basically even in our season rankings. The Panthers are more respected due to their running prowess, which is very explosive when DeAngelo Williams is on the field. But the Cardinals were 12th best (better than the Giants, for example) in yards allowed per rush. The Panthers' pass defense was seventh-best per play and the Cardinals may be without Anquan Boldin (hamstring). I agree with the computer that this game will be closer than most think, but can't see a Cardinals win. Boldin is very tough and this picks assumes he will play effectively. Panthers 27, Cardinals 23.

The Eagles made me our Rankings proud by advancing and then thrashing the Vikings Sunday. Philly is the best team in football, says our key stats. The computer pegs the Giants as a one-point favorite, due only to the game being played in East Rutherford. Philly, like the Giants last year, has already walked through the valley of death and I think that's steeled them. I'll be shocked if this game is decided by more than a field goal either way. Brandon Jacobs is healthy, which should allow the Giants to run it just well enough. The Eagles struggle in the red zone, which costs them here. Giants 17, Eagles 16.

The computer says Steelers by 5 in Pittsburgh; Vegas says by 6. Darren Sproles is better than even a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson right now. Fortunately for the Chargers, Tomlinson isn't healthy, so the hard decision to feature Sproles is made easy for Norv Turner. I don't like how Philip Rivers looked last week, shaky in the pocket and unwilling to throw downfield after some early plays blew up in his face. How does this improve against the torture chamber that is the Steelers defense? The Chargers defense has been much better since Ron Rivera became defensive coordinator. The Steelers offense is significantly below average, especially in pass protection. That could be key with Ben Roethlisberger so concussion prone. This game will be low-scoring unless turnovers play a big factor. Steelers 20, Chargers 13.

Buy

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: The Chargers' run defense is mediocre; the Colts, remember, were last in the NFL in yards per rush. Parker is healthy and running now without the shoulder harness, which he says was inhibiting him. Give him 100 yards and a TD in the Steelers win.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: Matt Ryan was very ineffective last week and unable to strike downfield, even when receivers were open. Delhomme is a proven playoff performer who will not miss easy plays against a Cardinals defense that yielded a bushel full of passing TDs. Neither will the electrifying Steve Smith.

Hold

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: He's very explosive and not a guy like LenDale White who is so negatively impacted by a tough matchup, as the Ravens are for any back. If Johnson finds a crease, he will outrun anyone. It will be far more bust than boom, though, as Johnson was stuffed more in '08 than any back.

Sell

DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: He's not stout enough against press coverage, or reliable enough catching or running routes to be featured for the Eagles. He can make a big play for sure (one catch for 34 yards last week) and is a very dangerous punt returner, but Kevin Curtis (four catches last week) and Jason Avant (five catches) are the Eagles receivers that move the chains.

NFL Player Rankings for the playoffs

By Chad Lawton

Below are complete fantasy football rankings, considering scoring potential for the ENTIRE playoffs. They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

* = check status

The first element of a Fantasy Football Playoff cheat sheet is a ranking of the teams by "game potential." That list will have significant weight to how the skill players are ordered, and it's just about all you need to construct your kicker and defense ranks. This playoff cheat sheet was constructed on the assumption of a Steelers-Panthers Super Bowl (albeit New York's chances are right there with Carolina), and it's also making the assumption that the Eagles and the Ravens will probably win this weekend (while the Vikings and the Dolphins probably make early exits). If you expect different results, your personal list should be adjusted to reflect those opinions; handicapping the winners and losers ahead of time is critical to success in any fantasy playoff pool.

Enjoy the second season, and good luck with your teams.

Teams in order of "Games Potential"
1. Steelers
2. Panthers
3. Giants
4. Eagles
5. Titans
6. Colts
7. Chargers
8. Ravens
9. Falcons
10. Cardinals
11. Dolphins
12. Vikings

Quarterback
1. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
2. *Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
3. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
4. Eli Manning, Giants
5. Peyton Manning, Colts
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers
7. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
8. Kerry Collins, Titans
9. Joe Flacco, Ravens
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons
11. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
12. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings

Running Back
1. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
2. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
3. Chris Johnson, Titans
4. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
5. Michael Turner, Falcons
6. Derrick Ward, Giants
7. *Joseph Addai, Colts
8. Willie Parker, Steelers
9. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
10. *LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
11. Le'Ron McClain, Ravens
12. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
13. Darren Sproles, Chargers
14. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
15. LenDale White, Titans
16. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
17. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
18. Willis McGahee, Ravens
19. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
20. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
21. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
22. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
23. Chester Taylor, Vikings
24. Jacob Hester, Chargers
25. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
26. J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
27. Ray Rice, Ravens
28. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
29. Gary Russell, Steelers
30. Ahmand Hall, Titans

Wide Receiver
1. Steve Smith, Panthers
2. Roddy White, Falcons
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts
5. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
6. Hines Ward, Steelers
7. *Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
8. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
9. Derrick Mason, Ravens
10. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
11. Domenik Hixon, Giants
12. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
13. Mark Clayton, Ravens
14. Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers
15. Justin Gage, Titans
16. Amani Toomer, Giants
17. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
18. Steve Breaston, Cardinals
19. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
20. Nate Washington, Steelers
21. Marvin Harrison, Colts
22. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
23. Brandon Jones, Titans
24. Davone Bess, Dolphins
25. Steve Smith, Giants
26. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
27. Justin McCareins, Titans
28. Chris Chambers, Chargers
29. Bobby Wade, Vikings
30. *Malcom Floyd, Chargers
31. Jason Avant, Eagles
32. Sinorice Moss, Giants
33. Sidney Rice, Vikings
34. Harry Douglas, Falcons
35. Jerheme Urban, Cardinals
36. Reggie Brown, Eagles
37. Hank Baskett, Eagles
38. D.J. Hackett, Panthers

Tight End
1. Dallas Clark, Colts
2. Antonio Gates, Chargers
3. Kevin Boss, Giants
4. Heath Miller, Steelers
5. Todd Heap, Ravens
6. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
7. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
8. L.J. Smith, Eagles
9. Jeff King, Panthers
10. Bo Scaife, Titans
11. David Martin, Dolphins
12. Gijon Robinson, Colts
13. Dante Rosario, Panthers
14. Alge Crumpler, Titans
15. Brent Celek, Eagles
16. Brandon Manumaleuna, Chargers
17. Justin Peelle, Falcons
18. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
19. Daniel Wilcox, Ravens
20. Matt Spaeth, Steelers

Kicker
1. Jeff Reed, Steelers
2. John Carney, Giants
3. Rob Bironas, Titans
4. David Akers, Eagles
5. John Kasay, Panthers
6. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
7. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
8. Matt Stover, Ravens
9. Jason Elam, Falcons
10. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
11. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
12. Dan Carpenter, Dolphins

Defense
1. Steelers
2. Giants
3. Titans
4. Ravens
5. Panthers
6. Eagles
7. Colts
8. Chargers
9. Vikings
10. Dolphins
11. Falcons
12. Cardinals

Football by the Numbers -- Teams and players to watch on Wildcard Weekend

By Michael Salfino

Last week, half the teams were going through the motions. This week, eight will play for their lives. Let's predict the four Wildcard Weekend games and also use the key stats to project individual performance.

The book is now closed on our 2008 Key Stat Power Rankings. And there are some teams sitting at home who faired better here than a number of squads with tickets to the postseason dance.

The Saints (sixth overall), the Packers (10th) and the Texans (11th) are all playoff-caliber by my measure. Note the 11-5 Patriots finished 16th in these rankings because of a bad defense that was greatly aided by horrendous playing conditions in Week 17.

I don't think I've ever had a team as high as the Packers with only six wins. They lost seven games by four points or less. The random bounces and mere inches that separate NFL success from failure went against them at key times. They had no wins that narrow. Even splitting those seven narrow losses slightly against them gives them a 9-7.

Worst teams in the playoffs, in order of worseness, are the Vikings (18th), the Panthers (17th), the Cardinals and the Falcons (tied for 14th).

The top-tier teams (separated by less than two points on a neutral field): the Eagles, the Ravens, the Steelers and the Giants. The Eagles needed lots of help on Sunday to avoid being the first No. 1 team to not make the playoffs in the six-year history of my rankings.

This week the Eagles get the worst playoff team. The computer says Eagles by 6 on a neutral field factoring in the key stats, but that becomes just 3 in Minnesota (the actual Vegas line). I believe differences this great are magnified in the postseason and will call it Eagles 24, Vikings 17.

That's the final game of the weekend. The first is the Falcons at the Cardinals; teams the computer says are so dead-even statistically that home field decides it. But the program ignores finer points like the Falcons being 28th in stopping the run (which hurts their net yards per play average) and the Cardinals inability to capitalize (31st in yards per rush). That's why Vegas favors the Falcons by 2. I agree and will call it Falcons 27, Cardinals 24.

The second game on Saturday is the best of the weekend because both clubs are very dangerous. The computer says Chargers by 4, and I agree with it over the Vegas line (Colts by 1). Forget the Chargers' 8-8 record and note they finished seventh in point differential. Chargers 28, Colts 24.

The final game pits a Ravens squad that's finally found a semblance of a passing game (16th in YPA) in Miami against a Dolphins team that's won with mirrors (and turnover differential). Note the Ravens are ahead of the Dolphins in net interception rate. Miami has a slight edge in overall turnover differential; but fumbles are more random than picks. My computer and Vegas both say Ravens by 3. Ravens 16, Dolphins 13.

Buy

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: The Cards can't stop you when they know you'll pass (36 scoring strikes allowed). Even if they choose the slow death (run) versus the fast (pass), as almost all defenses do, the over/under on Ryan is 250 yards and two TDs. If they load up the box to stop Michael Turner, add at least 50 yards and another TD for Ryan. America learns about Roddy White this week, too.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: The Vikings' run defense is stout, but refrigerator-sized Pat Williams (shoulder) might not play. Even if he fortifies the interior of the line, Westbrook can get outside and prove impossible to contain in the passing game.

Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers: He killed the Colts last year in the playoffs and will do the same this year with LaDainian Tomlinson out or severely limited by a strained groin. This is a big break for the Chargers, as Sproles is the far more dangerous weapon even when LT is healthy.

Hold

Cardinals running game: If you can't run on Atlanta, you're hopeless. Suddenly, the Cards are bullish about Edgerrin James again. If the Cardinals don't get 100 rushing yards and at least one rushing TD, they have no chance.

Sell

Dolphins Offense: Baltimore is fifth in yards allowed per rush, second in YPA allowed, has allowed the fewest first downs, is second in interception rate but, surprisingly, just 14th in sack percentage. The Ravens make the red zone look like a stop sign: second in TDs allowed overall and first in lowest TD percentage after the opponent is "and goal."

Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Vikings: Jim Johnson will have about 100 blitzes ready for Jackson, who won't know what hit him. Jackson is a good runner, not a great one, and will likely run his way only into more damaging sacks.

Week 17 NFL Scouting Notebook -- Jauron was overmatched by Belichick

By Michael Salfino

It's hard to dissect an NFL regular season for future reference while the body is still warm. Consider that last year, the Dolphins were 1-15 and salvaged a win only by beating the 5-11 Ravens in Week 15. Next week, those same Dolphins are AFC East champs and will host those Ravens in a playoff game.

So, with that caveat, here's the final Scouting Notebook for the regular season.

The wind in Buffalo was fun, as was the game for at least the first half. Then Dick Jauron got a little loopy with the clock/play calling. You're not going to win a bad-weather coaching battle with Bill Belichick, who earned his bones fighting The Hawk with Bill Parcells at the Meadowlands. But Jauron made it easy by not going no-huddle when trailing and with the wind in the second and third quarters. Not that going with that swirling gale was any bargain, either.

Fred Jackson impressed as a more explosive back than Marshawn Lynch while running just as tough. And he showed he catches well, too.

Just as I was noting how nice it was to see Cadillac Williams back in business for the Bucs, he suffered what appears right now to be another major knee injury. The game is so fast and violent that you wonder sometimes why there aren't more sad stories (very tempted to say "endings") like this.

We saw why Michael Bush was once considered a running back prospect at the Adrian Peterson-level. Why bother with Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas (re-signed as a free agent) last spring when Bush was ready to roll after fully recovering from a terrible leg break at Louisville? Al Davis is like a child who always wants the shiny toy whether he needs it or already has one. Bush looks like the complete package, but how can you make a No. 4 overall pick (McFadden) a change-of-pace back?

Yes, Jerious Norwood is fast and sporty. Electrifying even. But Michael Turner is a playmaker, too, and is in his prime after toiling on the bench behind LaDainian Tomlinson for years. Norwood is going to have to get his chance by bolting in free agency, too. But not until 2010.

I understand that coaches generally don't think about injuries. And they're so obsessed with winning that it's hard to call off the dogs when there's nothing at stake, like there was for the Steelers on Sunday. But Ben Roethlisberger has been banged up at various times, and that could have served as an excuse to get him out of there before another terrible concussion. He's reaching a threshold there, too, so there's no guarantee he's back when the Steelers next play in Week 19.

Cedric Benson once was a No. 5 overall pick and college workhorse at a top program (Texas). Next year, with Carson Palmer, he could have a nice enough setup to sneak into that top 15 range of fantasy running backs.

Nice catch and run by Joseph Addai, but he looked very slow in laboring the 50-plus yards for the score. So that becomes a negative for people filing away impressions for 2009 drafts.

Steven Jackson again managed to post some great games long after he's destroyed the seasons of every owner who drafted him, which, ironically, is the reason why they keep doing exactly that.

The Panthers have to learn how to spot Jonathan Stewart in low-leverage situations (second quarter, late with a big lead). Or how about only when DeAngelo Williams needs a breather? What was Stewart doing out there in the fourth quarter in New Orleans with the game on the line (and the Panthers on the verge of falling into the wild-card scrum)? Stewart is a fine player, but Williams is a gamebreaker - what you need when, like the Panthers, you are trying to win games by running.

What happened to Marques Colston during the meat of the season, after his thumb had reasonably healed? Why the sudden resurgence around Week 15? I have no answers now, but will make sure I do before I think about drafting him.

The Broncos defenders are so bad that they can't cover EITHER guy when two receivers run into the same part of the field (and almost collide) by mistake. Maybe they thought they would cover each other.

I refuse to pile on Brett Favre, who made for so many fun afternoons and Monday nights. But I will note that the Jets had gone 36 straight games without scoring a TD on their opening second-half drive before Leon Washington busted that string. Had Eric Mangini figured out ways to get Washington the ball more the past couple of years, it would have ended long ago and the Jets, this year, would be in the playoffs.

"Tony Romo is very overrated." Pass it along. It's not just the lack of big wins but the fact that the losses are rooted in a multitude of his miscues.

Week 17 Injury Report

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

Cowboys QB Tony Romo (illness) is probable and will start against the Eagles.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is probable and will start against the Browns.

Bengals QB Carson Palmer (right elbow) is out once again; Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start against the Chiefs.

Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (back) is questionable, but Seneca Wallace will start against the Cardinals.

Bucs QB Jeff Garcia (calf) is probable and will start against the Raiders.

Running Backs

Cowboys RB Marion Barber (toe) practiced all week on a limited basis and is listed as questionable. Expect him to suit up and start with the season on the line against the Eagles. But Tashard Choice should still get work.

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (knee, ankle) is probable and will start against the Cowboys.

Rams RB Steven Jackson (hamstring) is probable after practicing fully on Friday. He'll start against the Falcons.

Niners RB Frank Gore (ankle) is probable and will start against the Redskins.

Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) is questionable after being held out of practice Friday. He'll probably be inactive, with Derrick Ward (215 yards last week) starting in his place against the Vikings.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) returned to full practice on Friday and is listed as probable. He'll start against the Ravens.

Bills RB Marshawn Lynch (shoulder) is questionable but should start against the Patriots.

Saints RB Pierre Thomas (wrist, back) is questionable after not practicing all week. There is a good chance he'll be inactive against the Panthers (this explains Mike Bell's goal-line carry last week to all Thomas owners that it cost); Deuce McAllister and Bell will carry the load in his place.

Ravens RB Ray Rice (calf) is questionable for the game against the Jaguars, but should be ignored in all fantasy leagues.

Lions RB Kevin Smith (ankle) is questionable after being limited in practice all week, but is expected to start against the Packers.

Bengals RB Cedric Benson (ankle) got full reps in practice Friday and is listed as probable. He's been a nice find, and should continue his good play against the Chiefs.

Raiders RB Justin Fargas (neck) is listed as probable, while teammate Darren McFadden (ankle) is questionable. Both practiced fully on Friday, with Fargas getting the start against the Bucs.

Titans RB LenDale White (illness) is questionable. With nothing to play for, don't look for him to see much action. Chris Henry could be the guy who seems most of the carries against the Colts.

Colts RB Dominic Rhodes (chest) is out against the Titans.

Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington (knee) is questionable after returning to practice fully on Friday. He'll be ready to go against the Seahawks, but shouldn't be a huge fantasy factor.

Wide Receivers

Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hand) is probable and will start against the Chiefs. Teammate Chad Johnson (hamstring) is questionable after not practicing all week and is expected to be inactive.

Broncos WR Brandon Marshall (hip) and teammate WR Eddie Royal (thumb) practiced fully all week and will start against the Chargers. With the backfield depleted by injury, look for these two to come up huge in the biggest game of their season.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson (knee) is probable and will start against the Packers.

Jets WR Lavernaues Coles (thigh) is questionable after limited reps all week, while teammate Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) practiced fully and is probable; both will start against the Dolphins. The Jets are in a tailspin, so start these two with caution.

Cowboys WR Roy Williams (foot) is probable after practicing fully all week. He'll start against the Eagles, but should be on your fantasy team's bench.

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder) is questionable after being held out of practice all week. He might see limited action against the Seahawks to keep him sharp, but not enough to make a fantasy impact.

Vikings WR Bernard Berrian (ankle) is questionable after limited practice reps on Thursday and Friday. He'll play and start against the Giants.

Ravens WR Derrick Mason (shoulder) is questionable after being held out of practice all week. He'll be inactive against the Jaguars if his team clinches a playoff berth prior to their game, so keep an eye out for a Patriots loss and have a backup plan ready.

Panthers WR Muhsin Muhammad (foot) is probable and will start against the Saints.

Falcons WR Michael Jenkins (shoulder) was limited in practice all week and is questionable. He'll likely play against the Rams, but look for the Falcons to run early and often, limiting his value.

Eagles WR Kevin Curtis (calf) is probable after practicing fully all week; he'll start against the Cowboys.

Other Positions

Browns TE Kellen Winslow (ankle) is doubtful and should be inactive against the Steelers.

Cowboys TE Jason Witten (ankle) is probable after returning to limited practice on Friday. He'll start against the Eagles and should put up big numbers in a game with huge playoff implications.

Saints TE Jeremy Shockey (ankle) is officially out against the Panthers.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (shoulder) is doubtful after being held out of practice all week. There is a very good chance he'll be inactive against the Cowboys.

Giants TE Kevin Boss (ankle, concussion) is listed as doubtful against the Vikings. With nothing to play for, he won't touch the field.

Matchup Meter -- Final Week 17 player rankings

By Chad F. Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/
receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Here's an educated guess on who's playing hard vs. who's hardly playing:

- Full incentive and participation: Cowboys, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Falcons, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Chargers, Broncos, Buccaneers.

- Likely incentive: Ravens (assuming New England beats Buffalo earlier in day).

- Questionable incentive: Eagles (several earlier results in day could eliminate them, including a Bucs win over Oakland, but presence of Dallas should inspire best effort).

- No incentive, questionable participation (seeding is locked): Giants, Titans, Colts, Steelers, Cardinals (though Ken Whisenhunt says game is important).

- Historical incentive: The Lions will go all out to avoid 0-16, while the Packers should go all out to avoid being the team that lost to this pitiful Detroit team.

- Coaching incentive: Mike Singletary is auditioning for the Niners job and probably won't take the foot off the pedal now.

Quarterback
1. Philip Rivers, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: Too late for MVP run?
2. Jay Cutler, DEN at SD
NOTE: Settle in and enjoy the duel.
3. Drew Brees, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: Has an outside shot at Marino's yardage mark.
4. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. CHI
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DET
NOTE: Close losses aren't his fault.
6. Matt Cassel, NE at BUF
7. Tyler Thigpen, KC at CIN
8. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. STL
9. Tony Romo, DAL at PHI
10. Shaun Hill, SF vs. WAS
NOTE: Talked Singletary out of benching last week.
11. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. DAL
12. Chad Pennington, MIA at NYJ
13. Jake Delhomme, CAR at NO
14. *Seneca Wallace, SEA at ARI
15. Kyle Orton, CHI at HOU
NOTE: Hasn't been same since the injury.
16. *Kurt Warner, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: How deep will he go?
17. Brett Favre, NYJ vs. MIA
NOTE: A crash-landing in second half.
18. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN vs. NYG
19. *Dan Orlovsky, DET at GB
NOTE: Held back by flu last week.
20. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. JAC
21. *Trent Edwards, BUF vs. NE
22. Marc Bulger, STL at ATL
23. David Garrard, JAC at BAL
24. *Jeff Garcia, TB vs. OAK
25. *Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs. KC
26. *Jason Campbell, WAS at SF
27. *JaMarcus Russell, OAK at TB
28. *Roethlisberger/Leftwich, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Plenty of incentive to limit Big Ben here.
29. Eli Manning, NYG at MIN
30. *Bruce Gradkowski, CLE at PIT
31. Kerry Collins, TEN at IND
32. *Peyton Manning, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: Tony Dungy historically blows these games off.

Running Back
1. Michael Turner, ATL vs. STL
NOTE: San Diego regrets this one.
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at NO
NOTE: The surprise Fantasy MVP.
3. Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. NYG
4. *Matt Forte, CHI at HOU
5. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. CHI
6. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. MIA
7. Ryan Grant, GB vs. DET
8. Larry Johnson, KC at CIN
9. Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. DAL
10. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: He's just not the same guy.
11. *Kevin Smith, DET at GB
12. Cedric Benson, CIN vs. KC
NOTE: Opportunity makes him a safe play.
13. Le'Ron McClain, BAL vs. JAC
14. *Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at BAL
NOTE: Sore knee, but he's listed as probable.
15. *Sammy Morris, NE at BUF
16. *Steven Jackson, STL at ATL
NOTE: You never know if he'll finish.
17. Ronnie Brown, MIA at NYJ
18. *Maurice Morris, SEA at ARI
19. *Fred Jackson, BUF vs. NE
NOTE: A must-start if Lynch can't go.
20. *Clinton Portis, WAS at SF
NOTE: Every body part hurts at this point.
21. *Tashard Choice, DAL at PHI
22. Justin Fargas, OAK at TB
23. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. OAK
24. *Tatum Bell, DEN at SD
NOTE: Everyone else is hurt.
25. LaMont Jordan, NE at BUF
NOTE: Back in the mix, especially at the goal.
26. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. NYG
27. *Frank Gore, SF vs. WAS
NOTE: Sore ankle, game-time decision.
28. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. CLE
29. Kevin Faulk, NE at BUF
30. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: Hasn't worked all week.
31. *Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. STL
NOTE: Should get more work in this one.
32. *Darren McFadden, OAK at TB
NOTE: Sore ankle, but worked Friday.
33. Ricky Williams, MIA at NYJ
34. *Deuce McAllister, NO vs. CAR
35. *Jonathan Stewart, CAR at NO
36. Darren Sproles, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: He slayed the Broncos last time.
37. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. NE
NOTE: He's a game-time decision.
38. *Dominic Rhodes, IND vs. TEN
39. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. MIA
NOTE: Lack of touches is a head-scratcher.
40. *Derrick Ward, NYG at MIN
41. Jamal Lewis, CLE at PIT
NOTE: Hasn't topped 90 yards all season.
42. *Marion Barber, DAL at PHI
NOTE: Too nicked up to risk here.
43. *Mike Bell, NO vs. CAR
44. *Tim Hightower, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: Got exposed in starting role.
45. Cadillac Williams, TB vs. OAK
46. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. WAS
47. *Brandon Jacobs, NYG at MIN
NOTE: No guarantee he'll play much, or at all.
48. *LenDale White, TEN at IND
49. LaDell Betts, WAS at SF
50. *Chris Johnson, TEN at IND
NOTE: Hard to see him playing a lot.
51. Correll Buckhalter, PHI vs. DAL
52. *Gary Russell, PIT vs. CLE
53. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. JAC
54. *Willie Parker, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Probably not a full day.
55. *Jamaal Charles, KC at CIN
56. DeShawn Wynn, GB vs. DET
57. *Ray Rice, BAL vs. JAC
58. *Joseph Addai, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: It's been a lost year.
59. *J.J. Arrington, ARI vs. SEA
60. *Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at MIN
61. *Brandon Jackson, GB vs. DET
62. *Jerome Harrison, CLE at PIT
63. T.J. Duckett, SEA at ARI
64. Patrick Cobbs, MIA at NYJ
65. *Kenneth Darby, STL at ATL
66. *Ryan Moats, HOU vs. CHI
67. *Rock Cartwright, WAS at SF
68. *Julius Jones, SEA at ARI
69. Adrian Peterson, CHI at HOU
70. Michael Bush, OAK at TB
71. *Cory Boyd, DEN at SD
NOTE: Welcome to Spinal Tap, grab the drums.
72. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. SEA
73. *Rudi Johnson, DET at GB
74. Mike Sellers, WAS at SF

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN at SD
2. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. CHI
NOTE: Don't hold Oakland game against him.
3. Steve Smith, CAR at NO
4. *Greg Jennings, GB vs. DET
5. Roddy White, ATL vs. STL
6. Randy Moss, NE at BUF
7. Marques Colston, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: He's rallied over the last month.
8. *Calvin Johnson, DET at GB
9. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. DEN
10. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. OAK
NOTE: Nnamdi Asomugha (neck) might be limited.
11. Wes Welker, NE at BUF
12. Terrell Owens, DAL at PHI
13. *Eddie Royal, DEN at SD
NOTE: Hard to say no to a possible shootout.
14. Dwayne Bowe, KC at CIN
15. *Donald Driver, GB vs. DET
16. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. CHI
17. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. WAS
18. *Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: He'll do something early.
19. Devin Hester, CHI at HOU
20. *Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. MIA
21. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. KC
NOTE: Gunning for 100 catches, 1,000 yards.
22. Lance Moore, NO vs. CAR
23. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. MIA
24. *Derrick Mason, BAL vs. JAC
25. Santana Moss, WAS at SF
26. Torry Holt, STL at ATL
27. Ted Ginn, MIA at NYJ
28. Davone Bess, MIA at NYJ
29. Dennis Northcutt, JAC at BAL
NOTE: Tough matchup, but he's been super last two weeks.
30. *Steve Breaston, ARI vs. SEA
31. Donnie Avery, STL at ATL
32. *Mark Clayton, BAL vs. JAC
33. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. DAL
NOTE: Catch the ball, son.
34. *Deion Branch, SEA at ARI
35. *Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. NYG
36. Chris Chambers, SD vs. DEN
37. Lee Evans, BUF vs. NE
NOTE: Terrible track record against Pats.
38. Braylon Edwards, CLE at PIT
39. James Jones, GB vs. DET
40. Jerheme Urban, ARI vs. SEA
41. *Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. STL
42. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at NO
43. Reggie Williams, JAC at BAL
44. *Mark Bradley, KC at CIN
45. Jabar Gaffney, NE at BUF
NOTE: A sneaky-valuable No. 3.
46. Amani Toomer, NYG at MIN
47. Bryant Johnson, SF vs. WAS
48. *John Standeford, DET at GB
49. Devery Henderson, NO vs. CAR
50. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK at TB
51. Hines Ward, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Don't expect a full day.
52. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Good semi-sleeper for the playoffs.
53. *Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. TEN
54. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI at HOU
55. *Roy Williams, DAL at PHI
NOTE: Trade has been a bust thus far.
56. *Domenik Hixon, NYG at MIN
57. *Anquan Boldin, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: Didn't practice all week.
58. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at SF
59. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. NYG
60. Bobby Engram, SEA at ARI
61. Patrick Crayton, DAL at PHI
62. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: Colts routinely mail these games in.
63. Justin Gage, TEN at IND
NOTE: Nice rally but limited day awaits.
64. Nate Washington, PIT vs. CLE
65. Harry Douglas, ATL vs. STL
66. Chris Henry, CIN vs. KC
67. *Malcom Floyd, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: Was surging before lung injury.
68. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. NYG
69. Rashied Davis, CHI at HOU
70. *Jason Hill, SF vs. WAS
71. Brandon Jones, TEN at IND
72. Koren Robinson, SEA at ARI
73. Josh Reed, BUF vs. NE
74. Jason Avant, PHI vs. DAL
75. David Anderson, HOU vs. CHI
76. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. DAL
NOTE: Route mistake was costly to Eagles.
77. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. OAK
78. Justin McCareins, TEN at IND
79. Brandon Stokley, DEN at SD
80. Steve Smith, NYG at MIN
81. *Keenan Burton, STL at ATL
82. *Donte' Stallworth, CLE at PIT
83. *Kevin Curtis, PHI vs. DAL
84. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. DAL
85. *Josh Morgan, SF vs. WAS
NOTE: Finally heard from in Week 16.
86. *Ronald Curry, OAK at TB
87. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. MIA
88. *Mike Walker, JAC at BAL
89. *Chad Johnson, CIN vs. KC
NOTE: Balky hamstring, no sure thing to play.

Tight End
1. Antonio Gates, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: Went off in Tampa, used as a wideout.
2. Tony Gonzalez, KC at CIN
3. John Carlson, SEA at ARI
4. *Jason Witten, DAL at PHI
5. Tony Scheffler, DEN at SD
6. Greg Olsen, CHI at HOU
NOTE: Orton has full confidence in him.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. CHI
8. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. NYG
9. Chris Cooley, WAS at SF
10. *Zach Miller, OAK at TB
11. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. MIA
NOTE: Favre's slump has taken a toll.
12. Anthony Fasano, MIA at NYJ
NOTE: Pennington loves throwing to the tight ends.
13. Donald Lee, GB vs. DET
14. Billy Miller, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: Shockey is out this week.
15. Vernon Davis, SF vs. WAS
16. Todd Heap, BAL vs. JAC
17. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at BAL
18. Bo Scaife, TEN at IND
NOTE: Not much in second half.
19. *Desmond Clark, CHI at HOU
NOTE: He's lost main gig to Olsen.
20. David Martin, MIA at NYJ
21. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. OAK
22. Gijon Robinson, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: Might get some second-half scraps.
23. *Kevin Boss, NYG at MIN
24. *Heath Miller, PIT vs. CLE
25. *Dallas Clark, IND vs. TEN
26. Ben Watson, NE at BUF
27. *Kellen Winslow, CLE at PIT
NOTE: Not expected to play.
28. *Martellus Bennett, DAL at PHI
29. *Alex Smith, TB vs. OAK
30. *Darnell Dinkins, CLE at PIT
31. *Brent Celek, PHI vs. DAL
32. *Daniel Graham, DEN at SD

Kicker
1. Jason Elam, ATL vs. STL
NOTE: Indoors, against a patsy.
2. Matt Bryant, TB vs. OAK
3. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. NYG
4. Garrett Hartley, NO vs. CAR
5. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: We'll see plenty of points here.
6. Stephen Gostkowski, NE at BUF
NOTE: His offense is rolling.
7. Mason Crosby, GB vs. DET
8. Kris Brown, HOU vs. CHI
9. Matt Prater, DEN at SD
10. Neil Rackers, ARI vs. SEA
11. Dan Carpenter, MIA at NYJ
12. John Kasay, CAR at NO
13. Joe Nedney, SF vs. WAS
NOTE: Tied to a drive-and-stall offense.
14. David Akers, PHI vs. DAL
15. Robbie Gould, CHI at HOU
16. Nick Folk, DAL at PHI
17. Rian Lindell, BUF vs. NE
18. *John Carney, NYG at MIN
19. Jason Hanson, DET at GB
20. *Josh Brown, STL at ATL
21. Rob Bironas, TEN at IND
22. Connor Barth, KC at CIN
23. Adam Vinatieri, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: His supporting cast won't be playing.
24. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. MIA
25. Shaun Suisham, WAS at SF
26. Matt Stover, BAL vs. JAC
27. Phil Dawson, CLE at PIT
28. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. CLE
29. Olindo Mare, SEA at ARI
30. Josh Scobee, JAC at BAL
31. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK at TB
32. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. KC

Defense
1. Atlanta vs. St. Louis
NOTE: Pick on the spotty offensive line.
2. Tampa Bay vs. Oakland
NOTE: What happened to Kiffin's scheme?
3. Green Bay vs. Detroit
4. Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
5. Baltimore vs. Jacksonville
6. New England at Buffalo
7. Dallas at Philadelphia
NOTE: Sack-happy unit will be heard from.
8. Minnesota vs. New York Giants
NOTE: They'll get some against David Carr, late.
9. Philadelphia vs. Dallas
10. Miami at New York Jets
11. Arizona vs. Seattle
12. Tennessee at Indianapolis
13. New York Giants at Minnesota
14. San Francisco vs. Washington
15. New York Jets vs. Miami
NOTE: Dolphins are careful with the ball.
16. Cleveland at Pittsburgh
NOTE: Their turnover count will surprise you.
17. San Diego vs. Denver
18. Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
19. Carolina at New Orleans
20. Houston vs. Chicago
21. Washington at San Francisco
22. New Orleans vs. Carolina
23. Chicago at Houston
24. Oakland at Tampa Bay
25. Cincinnati vs. Kansas City
26. Denver at San Diego
27. Kansas City at Cincinnati
28. Seattle at Arizona
NOTE: Unit collapsed in 2008.
29. Buffalo vs. New England
30. Jacksonville at Baltimore
31. St. Louis at Atlanta
32. Detroit at Green Bay

Matchup Meter -- Week 17 NFL player rankings

By Chad F. Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Updated: 12/26

* = check status

Part of the Week 17 gig is figuring which teams will take their games seriously, and which teams will mail it in as they get ready for the playoffs.

Here's an educated guess on who's playing hard vs. who's hardly playing:

- Full incentive and participation: Cowboys, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Falcons, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Chargers, Broncos, Buccaneers.

- Likely incentive: Ravens (assuming New England beats Buffalo earlier in day).

- Questionable incentive: Eagles (several earlier results in day could eliminate them, including a Bucs win over Oakland, but presence of Dallas should inspire best effort).

- No incentive, questionable participation (seeding is locked):
Giants, Titans, Colts, Steelers, Cardinals (though Ken Whisenhunt says game is important).

- Historical incentive: The Lions will go all out to avoid 0-16, while the Packers should go all out to avoid being the team that lost to this pitiful Detroit team.

- Coaching incentive: Mike Singletary is auditioning for the Niners job and probably won't take the foot off the pedal now.

Quarterback
1. Philip Rivers, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: Too late for MVP run?
2. Jay Cutler, DEN at SD
NOTE: Settle in and enjoy the duel.
3. Drew Brees, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: Has an outside shot at Marino's yardage mark.
4. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. CHI
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DET
NOTE: Close losses aren't his fault.
6. Matt Cassel, NE at BUF
7. Tyler Thigpen, KC at CIN
8. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. STL
9. Tony Romo, DAL at PHI
10. Shaun Hill, SF vs. WAS
NOTE: Talked Singletary out of benching last week.
11. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. DAL
12. Chad Pennington, MIA at NYJ
13. Jake Delhomme, CAR at NO
14. *Seneca Wallace, SEA at ARI
15. Kyle Orton, CHI at HOU
NOTE: Hasn't been same since the injury.
16. *Kurt Warner, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: How deep will he go?
17. Brett Favre, NYJ vs. MIA
NOTE: A crash-landing in second half.
18. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN vs. NYG
19. *Dan Orlovsky, DET at GB
NOTE: Held back by flu last week.
20. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. JAC
21. *Trent Edwards, BUF vs. NE
22. David Garrard, JAC at BAL
23. *Jeff Garcia, TB vs. OAK
24. *Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs. KC
25. *Jason Campbell, WAS at SF
26. *JaMarcus Russell, OAK at TB
27. Marc Bulger, STL at ATL
28. Roethlisberger/Leftwich, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Plenty of incentive to limit Big Ben here.
29. Eli Manning, NYG at MIN
30. *Bruce Gradkowski, CLE at PIT
31. Kerry Collins, TEN at IND
32. *Peyton Manning, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: Tony Dungy historically blows these games off.

Running Back
1. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at NO
NOTE: The surprise Fantasy MVP.
2. Michael Turner, ATL vs. STL
NOTE: San Diego regrets this one.
3. Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. NYG
4. *Matt Forte, CHI at HOU
5. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. CHI
6. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. MIA
7. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: He's legit, but Payton likes to share.
8. Ryan Grant, GB vs. DET
9. Larry Johnson, KC at CIN
10. Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. DAL
11. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: He's just not the same guy.
12. *Kevin Smith, DET at GB
13. Cedric Benson, CIN vs. KC
NOTE: Opportunity makes him a safe play.
14. Le'Ron McClain, BAL vs. JAC
15. *Sammy Morris, NE at BUF
16. *Steven Jackson, STL at ATL
NOTE: You never know if he'll finish.
17. Ronnie Brown, MIA at NYJ
18. *Maurice Morris, SEA at ARI
19. *Fred Jackson, BUF vs. NE
NOTE: A must-start if Lynch can't go.
20. *Clinton Portis, WAS at SF
NOTE: Every body part hurts at this point.
21. *Tashard Choice, DAL at PHI
22. Justin Fargas, OAK at TB
23. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. OAK
24. *Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at BAL
25. *Tatum Bell, DEN at SD
26. LaMont Jordan, NE at BUF
NOTE: Back in the mix, especially at the goal.
27. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. NYG
28. *Frank Gore, SF vs. WAS
29. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. CLE
30. Kevin Faulk, NE at BUF
31. *Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. STL
NOTE: Should get more work in this one.
32. Darren McFadden, OAK at TB
33. Ricky Williams, MIA at NYJ
34. *Jonathan Stewart, CAR at NO
35. Darren Sproles, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: He slayed the Broncos last time.
36. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. NE
37. *Deuce McAllister, NO vs. CAR
38. *Dominic Rhodes, IND vs. TEN
39. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. MIA
NOTE: Lack of touches is a head-scratcher.
40. *Derrick Ward, NYG at MIN
41. Jamal Lewis, CLE at PIT
NOTE: Hasn't topped 90 yards all season.
42. *Marion Barber, DAL at PHI
NOTE: Too nicked up to risk here.
43. *Tim Hightower, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: Got exposed in starting role.
44. Cadillac Williams, TB vs. OAK
45. *Brandon Jacobs, NYG at MIN
46. *LenDale White, TEN at IND
47. LaDell Betts, WAS at SF
48. *Chris Johnson, TEN at IND
NOTE: Hard to see him playing a lot.
49. *J.J. Arrington, ARI vs. SEA
50. Correll Buckhalter, PHI vs. DAL
51. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. WAS
52. *Mike Bell, NO vs. CAR
53. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. JAC
54. *Willie Parker, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Probably not a full day.
55. *Jamaal Charles, KC at CIN
56. DeShawn Wynn, GB vs. DET
57. *Ray Rice, BAL vs. JAC
58. *Gary Russell, PIT vs. CLE
59. *Joseph Addai, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: It's been a lost year.
60. *Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at MIN
61. *Brandon Jackson, GB vs. DET
62. *Jerome Harrison, CLE at PIT
63. T.J. Duckett, SEA at ARI
64. Patrick Cobbs, MIA at NYJ
65. *Kenneth Darby, STL at ATL
66. *Ryan Moats, HOU vs. CHI
67. *Rock Cartwright, WAS at SF
68. *Julius Jones, SEA at ARI
69. Adrian Peterson, CHI at HOU
70. Michael Bush, OAK at TB
71. *Cory Boyd, DEN at SD
NOTE: Welcome to Spinal Tap, grab the drums.
72. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. SEA
73. *Rudi Johnson, DET at GB
74. Mike Sellers, WAS at SF

Wide Receiver
1. Steve Smith, CAR at NO
2. Brandon Marshall, DEN at SD
3. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. CHI
NOTE: Don't hold Oakland game against him.
4. *Greg Jennings, GB vs. DET
5. Roddy White, ATL vs. STL
6. Randy Moss, NE at BUF
7. *Calvin Johnson, DET at GB
8. Marques Colston, NO vs. CAR
NOTE: He's rallied over the last month.
9. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. DEN
10. Wes Welker, NE at BUF
11. Terrell Owens, DAL at PHI
12. *Eddie Royal, DEN at SD
NOTE: Hard to say no to a possible shootout.
13. Dwayne Bowe, KC at CIN
14. *Donald Driver, GB vs. DET
15. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. CHI
16. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. WAS
17. *Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. SEA
NOTE: He'll do something early.
18. Devin Hester, CHI at HOU
19. *Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. MIA
20. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. KC
NOTE: Gunning for 100 catches, 1,000 yards.
21. *Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. NYG
22. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. MIA
23. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. OAK
NOTE: He's rolling, but this is a nasty matchup.
24. *Derrick Mason, BAL vs. JAC
25. Santana Moss, WAS at SF
26. Lance Moore, NO vs. CAR
27. Torry Holt, STL at ATL
28. Ted Ginn, MIA at NYJ
29. Davone Bess, MIA at NYJ
30. Dennis Northcutt, JAC at BAL
NOTE: Tough matchup, but he's been super last two weeks.
31. *Steve Breaston, ARI vs. SEA
32. Donnie Avery, STL at ATL
33. *Mark Clayton, BAL vs. JAC
34. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. DAL
NOTE: Catch the ball, son.
35. *Anquan Boldin, ARI vs. SEA
36. Lee Evans, BUF vs. NE
NOTE: Terrible track record against Pats.
37. Chris Chambers, SD vs. DEN
38. Braylon Edwards, CLE at PIT
39. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK at TB
40. James Jones, GB vs. DET
41. Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. STL
42. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at NO
43. Reggie Williams, JAC at BAL
44. *Mark Bradley, KC at CIN
45. Jabar Gaffney, NE at BUF
NOTE: A sneaky-valuable No. 3.
46. Amani Toomer, NYG at MIN
47. Bryant Johnson, SF vs. WAS
48. *John Standeford, DET at GB
49. Devery Henderson, NO vs. CAR
50. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI at HOU
51. Jerheme Urban, ARI vs. SEA
52. *Roy Williams, DAL at PHI
NOTE: Trade has been a bust thus far.
53. *Domenik Hixon, NYG at MIN
54. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at SF
55. *Chad Johnson, CIN vs. KC
56. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. NYG
57. Bobby Engram, SEA at ARI
58. Patrick Crayton, DAL at PHI
59. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: Colts routinely mail these games in.
60. Hines Ward, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Don't expect a full day.
61. Justin Gage, TEN at IND
NOTE: Nice rally but limited day awaits.
62. Nate Washington, PIT vs. CLE
63. *Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. TEN
64. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. CLE
NOTE: Good semi-sleeper for the playoffs.
65. Harry Douglas, ATL vs. STL
66. Chris Henry, CIN vs. KC
67. *Deion Branch, SEA at ARI
68. *Malcom Floyd, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: Was surging before lung injury.
69. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. NYG
70. Rashied Davis, CHI at HOU
71. *Jason Hill, SF vs. WAS
72. Brandon Jones, TEN at IND
73. Koren Robinson, SEA at ARI
74. Josh Reed, BUF vs. NE
75. David Anderson, HOU vs. CHI
76. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. DAL
NOTE: Route mistake was costly to Eagles.
77. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. OAK
78. Justin McCareins, TEN at IND
79. Brandon Stokley, DEN at SD
80. Steve Smith, NYG at MIN
81. Jason Avant, PHI vs. DAL
82. *Keenan Burton, STL at ATL
83. *Donte' Stallworth, CLE at PIT
84. *Kevin Curtis, PHI vs. DAL
85. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. DAL
86. *Josh Morgan, SF vs. WAS
NOTE: Finally heard from in Week 16.
87. *Ronald Curry, OAK at TB
88. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. MIA
89. *Mike Walker, JAC at BAL

Tight End
1. Antonio Gates, SD vs. DEN
NOTE: Went off in Tampa, used as a wideout.
2. Tony Gonzalez, KC at CIN
3. John Carlson, SEA at ARI
4. *Jason Witten, DAL at PHI
5. Tony Scheffler, DEN at SD
6. Greg Olsen, CHI at HOU
NOTE: Orton has full confidence in him.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. CHI
8. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. NYG
9. Chris Cooley, WAS at SF
10. *Zach Miller, OAK at TB
11. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. MIA
NOTE: Favre's slump has taken a toll.
12. Anthony Fasano, MIA at NYJ
NOTE: Pennington loves throwing to the tight ends.
13. Donald Lee, GB vs. DET
14. *Jeremy Shockey, NO vs. CAR
15. Vernon Davis, SF vs. WAS
16. Todd Heap, BAL vs. JAC
17. Billy Miller, NO vs. CAR
18. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at BAL
19. Bo Scaife, TEN at IND
NOTE: Not much in second half.
20. *Desmond Clark, CHI at HOU
NOTE: He's lost main gig to Olsen.
21. David Martin, MIA at NYJ
22. *Kellen Winslow, CLE at PIT
23. *L.J. Smith, PHI vs. DAL
24. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. OAK
25. Gijon Robinson, IND vs. TEN
NOTE: Might get some second-half scraps.
26. *Kevin Boss, NYG at MIN
27. *Dallas Clark, IND vs. TEN
28. Ben Watson, NE at BUF
29. *Heath Miller, PIT vs. CLE
30. *Martellus Bennett, DAL at PHI
31. *Alex Smith, TB vs. OAK
32. *Darnell Dinkins, CLE at PIT
33. *Brent Celek, PHI vs. DAL
34. *Daniel Graham, DEN at SD

NFL Stock Watch -- For the fortunate few who are still playing in Week 17

By Mark P. Stopa

There is a reason that most fantasy leagues end on Week 16. Week 17 is often a mess, and this year is no exception. With playoff seeds of several teams already established (Titans, Steelers, Colts, Giants, Cardinals), expect many key players to see little or no action.

If your game this week counts, focus on good players whose teams still have something to play for. For instance, the Chargers and the Broncos should put up a lot of points in San Diego. Play your studs on both teams, and consider guys like Darren Sproles if you need a plug-in. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in a similar situation, fighting for a playoff spot, but playing outdoors in the Northeast, the points should be harder for both teams to come by. Play Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens, but the marginal players from those teams should stay on your bench. The Bucs and the Falcons, still fighting for playoff spots/seeding, should pummel the Raiders and the Rams at home. Play your studs on both teams, and don't be afraid to use Jerious Norwood or Jeff Garcia. Even the Packers, who are out of the race, will give a full effort to ensure they are not the team that loses to the Lions. Your usual Packers are good plays, and so is backup RB Brandon Jackson (health permitting, as backup runners have been very productive versus Detroit).

But tell your league commish to decide next year's champion in Week 16. Speaking of next season, it's never too early to start talking about the values of players, especially for those of you in keeper leagues.

Upgrades

Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs. Thigpen is a good, young QB on a team with good weapons at the skill positions (especially if Tony Gonzalez comes back) and a bad defense in a division full of bad defenses. Next season, I'd be more than happy to draft studs at running back and receiver and use a later pick on Thigpen as my starting QB.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars. The past few weeks, Drew has shown what he can do as a feature back. With Fred Taylor unlikely to return to Jacksonville, Drew is a sure-fire first-round pick next year.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions. Johnson was a really good fantasy receiver this year. He'll be entering his third year next season (often the most productive one for receivers). And Lions QB play can't be any worse than it was this year. I'll be surprised to see Johnson make it out of the first round in next year's drafts.

Your Falcon studs: Matt Ryan has played terrific football in this, his rookie year. In future seasons, he will only improve, ensuring continued success for Michael Turner and Roddy White. Turner can reasonably be considered as the first overall pick and White an elite receiving option. Playing in the Georgia Dome does not hurt, either.

No Change

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. His 2008 was a bust, and the Raiders were terrible, so people will shy away. But he has talent and the defenses in the AFC West, again, are terrible. McFadden is likely to be undervalued next year.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns. A lot will change in the offseason for the Browns, including their coach. I know that Edwards was a bust this year. But they will start next year with a capable QB (either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn). Remember, too, that everyone viewed Edwards as a stud going into this season. Unlike LaDainian Tomlinson, for example, Edwards is still young and has not lost his skill set. Sometimes good players just have "one of those years."

Downgrades

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers. The days of LT being the top fantasy pick are long over. In fact, Tomlinson is not even the best fantasy player on his own team (Philip Rivers gets that honor). Next year, let someone else draft LT early based on his name value and prior production.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts. If I were running the Colts, I'd draft a speedy RB like Chris Johnson - someone to take the pressure off of Peyton Manning. Consider all the success that rookie RBs enjoyed this year if they follow this advice. Either way, don't draft Addai in the first round again next year.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets. Jones was sensational this season, leading many fantasy owners to a championship. He will be 31 next year, though, and has a lot of mileage on his legs. Someone else will undoubtedly draft Jones based his 2008 production, and it's extraordinarily unlikely that Jones approaches those numbers ever again. In fact, with a full offseason to review game tapes, Jets management should realize that Leon Washington (three touches Sunday at Seattle) is the Jets best offensive player (and, yes, that includes Brett Favre).

Football by the Numbers -- Players with upside, and downside, for 2009

By Michael Salfino

Next week, we begin focusing laser-like through the stat prism at the playoff games. So now, after Week 16, is the time for some reflection.

You learn something every year. But has anything that's transpired in '08 shaken the foundation of this particular brand of NFL stat analysis?

I've resolved that net YPP (yards per play) is a better stat than net YPA (yards per pass attempt). I do mourn the loss of the YPA stat because it more clearly emphasized the importance of passing efficiency in the modern game. But YPP gets all that in and also accounts for net rushing yards per attempt, which can be significant in the rare cases in which these net rushing differences are extreme.

But please remember this year's data on how net YPA correlates to winning. Granted, Week 16 was the worst week for the net YPA stat that I can remember. Teams winning that category were 8-8 last week. But even including Week 16, the current year-to-date record of teams that win just this stat (looking at nothing else) is 181-58, a .757 win percentage. That's close enough to the 80 percent we always expect.

I'm disappointed that the Eagles didn't validate my Stat Power Index with better results, especially last week at Washington. They've badly underachieved, as they still lead these rankings even after the devastating Week 16 result. Last week, they lost because DeSean Jackson dropped about 100 yards worth of passes, including one in the end zone, just in the fourth quarter. Andy Reid and staff had a really bad year in leveraging talent and key stat dominance into wins.

I'm surprised how bad a year it's been for net turnovers. The Chiefs, the Packers and the Browns are all tied for sixth-best at plus-6, and have won 11 games combined. Focusing just on interceptions as I do knocks out only the Chiefs. This doesn't mean that turnovers aren't important - they track to winning about as well as net YPA. But turnovers have less predictive value because the sample of plays for all turnovers is so small and so much more reasonably random than all passing plays for and against (the sample of data used for net YPA).

The group of top 10 teams sorted by net YPA has just one losing team - the Chargers, who my broader Stat Power Index says will annihilate the Broncos on Sunday night and thus become the AFC West champion. Unfortunately, while most of the bottom of the net YPA rankings correlates perfectly to NFL rottenness, the ninth- and 10th-worst teams there are the Jets and the Patriots, respectively. And New England is a good team right now (though burdened by a terrible pass defense). Net YPP elevates the Jets and the Pats but drops the Bears into the bottom 10 - not a tragedy because the Bears aren't any good.

Strictly for entertainment purposes, let's use the Power Index to forecast the big Week 17 games. The Saints will beat the Panthers at New Orleans, making the Falcons the NFC South champ and No. 2 seed. The Dolphins trounce the Jets at the Meadowlands. The Eagles will take care of the overrated Cowboys, even if only to exorcise the 2008 demons.

Before looking more specifically at some individual performers, let me praise the rampant parity in the league. The game is more fun to follow when there is no dominant team. The championship race seems more wide-open this year than I've ever witnessed.

Buy

Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Matt Ryan has been good this year and a considerable leap from that is likely next season. The primary beneficiary will be White. So ignore White's second-half scoring slump (one TD since October) and expect him to be a candidate for top WR honors in '09.

Hold

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks: He's a decent player, for sure. But how much of his success has been predicated on the Mike Holmgren offense now leaving town? The skill talent in Seattle is not NFL-caliber. So I don't think it's likely to get qualitatively better for Hasselbeck in '09, even with better health.

Sell

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: He's limping to the finish line of 2008 with a calf strain, a bruised hand, a sprained knee, back spasms, a stinger, and ankle and hip issues. Next year, he's a year older with all those extra carries added to the ledger. There's roughly a two-thirds chance he becomes 2009's LaDainian Tomlinson yardage-wise with half the scores. The market won't let you discount enough for that.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Same deal for him as for Portis, except Jones happens to be healthier now. Of course, he's siphoned touches away from the Jets' most explosive playmaker, the Brian Westbrook-like Leon Washington. The next coaching staff in New York is unlikely to let that happen again to this extreme.

NFL Scouting Notebook -- Next week is likely Favre's curtain call in New York

By Michael Salfino

The football week now lasts longer than the days off with Thursday and Saturday nights on the schedule in Week 16. Let's start our Scouting Notebook this week with these early games.

Peyton Manning made a case for being the MVP on Thursday with a flawless performance against the Jaguars. He's making Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark (nice players, for sure) look great; not vice versa. And the Colts are a dangerous playoff team because their pass defense is sound - just six passing TDs yielded all year. Granted, they almost spit the bit late against David Garrard (who overthrew an open Reggie Williams).

The Cowboys lost because they allowed more clean blitzers than imaginable for a playoff hopeful with a veteran QB and lauded offensive line (remember those September reviews). If you sneak through two or three clean rushers in a game, that's a lot. The Ravens were in double digits.

Tony Romo said it was due to not seeing the Ravens a lot, but Dallas has seen the 3-4. Heck, they just two weeks ago played the Steelers, who do what the Ravens do against the pass (just better).

Zach Thomas used to look like a high school player while making plays. Now, he just looks like a high schooler. His "defense" on the two long Ravens TD runs that sealed their win was downright embarrassing.

Dan Orlovsky tried to play through a flu but obviously should have stayed in bed. His Saints game gums up his stats to the point where it's more likely the new regime in Detroit will draft Georgia QB Matt Stafford with the No. 1 pick. Hopefully for Detroit, which needs a break, he turns into another Jay Cutler. But he's far from a sure thing, and you have to pay No. 1 overall rookie QBs like they are exactly that. QB is a position where you can throw the college resume and scouting report out the window. Look at how seventh-round picks like Matt Cassel (a free agent to be) and Tyler Thigpen are viewed now (as possible franchise QBs) compared to Matt Leinart and Vince Young (both of whom might have been released by now if they were seventh-round picks).

Leinart had the late, meaningless bomb to Larry Fitzgerald, but looked clueless against pressure and especially in orchestrating the line to pick up the blitz pre-snap. He should be demonstrating more mastery by now even by just paying attention in meetings and watching closely on the sideline.

His Cardinals entered the week with 31 TD passes allowed (not the 27 I cited last week; the NFL doesn't update all their stats simultaneously, I've learned). Now that total is up to a breathtakingly bad 34. The Patriots are next worst at 27 TDs allowed. The Cardinals can't possibly beat the Falcons next week (their opponent if the season ended today).

Shaun Hill talked Mike Singletary out of benching him in the third quarter and led the Niners back dramatically against the Rams, a win important to Singletary's coaching future. That's the kind of conversation and outcome that forges a long-term QB/Coach relationship.

JaMarcus Russell looked good again, this time for the entire game in the Raiders' upset win at home against the surging Texans. That make him 35 for 57 for 478 yards (four TDs, 1 pick) his last eight quarters. We were looking for baby steps from Russell, but the second-year pro now appears to be walking.

Brett Favre now has gone 13 weeks without a TD pass over 20 yards. And he's missed open guys deep, too -- mostly Laveranues Coles. The Jets' playoff hopes essentially died in Seattle, so Sunday might be the curtain call for Favre. Here's hoping he has one more rainbow in him.

Jake Delhomme's favorite throw is the back-shoulder seam pass to Steve Smith, which is unstoppable considering defensive backs have their backs to the play because they're getting beat over the top.

Matt Ryan's deft ball fakes create play-action possibilities in the passing game and hesitation among opponents defending the run. Basically, on many Michael Turner running plays, the edge defenders don't know whether Ryan is going to hand off, fake and boot pass or fake and boot run. This indecision creates wide running lanes without requiring blocking.

Reggie Brown showed why he's been a healthy scratch in recent weeks by running his route too shallow and not getting into the end zone on the final play in Washington. That pass by Donovan McNabb should have been a TD. There's no way the QB can know whether the receiver has appropriate depth when making that throw 27 yards away.

The Chargers are a home win (against Denver) away from miraculously winning the AFC West (remember their onside kick/second TD in the last minute last week in Kansas City). San Diego needs to come out passing from the opening whistle and then working in LaDainian Tomlinson instead of vice versa, as Norv Turner always wants to do with his running game.

Matchup Meter -- Final Week 16 player rankings

By Chad F. Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every
10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Updated: 12/24

* = check status

A WORD ABOUT WEATHER: Wind is the biggest enemy for a fantasy player at this time of year, but any winter conditions need to be taken seriously -- especially when considering QBs, WRs and kickers. Make sure you check the forecast of any game played outside this week, and most notably, these matchups need to be watched closely: Arizona at New England, Cleveland at Cincinnati, New York Jets at Seattle, Carolina at New York Giants, Green Bay at Chicago, Miami at Kansas City and Philadelphia at Washington. There's also a chance of rain in the Houston at Oakland game (though the Pats and Raiders scored plenty in the rain last week). A handful of dome players get mild kicks forward this week because you don't have to worry about their conditions.

Quarterback
1. Drew Brees, NO at DET
NOTE: Yardage record might still be within reach.
2. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. BUF
3. Donovan McNabb, PHI at WAS
4. Shaun Hill, SF at STL
NOTE: Ahh, a dome.
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI
6. Matt Schaub, HOU at OAK
7. Dan Orlovsky, DET vs. NO
NOTE: Good chemistry with Calvin Johnson.
8. Matt Cassel, NE vs. ARI
9. Matt Ryan, ATL at MIN
10. Kurt Warner, ARI at NE
11. *Tony Romo, DAL vs. BAL
12. Tyler Thigpen, KC vs. MIA
13. Philip Rivers, SD at TB
NOTE: Should be at the Pro Bowl.
14. *Jeff Garcia, TB vs. SD
NOTE: Game-day decision.
15. Eli Manning, NYG vs. CAR
16. Chad Pennington, MIA at KC
17. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. GB
18. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN vs. ATL
19. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at TEN
20. *Trent Edwards, BUF at DEN
21. Marc Bulger, STL vs. SF
22. Jake Delhomme, CAR at NYG
23. *Jason Campbell, WAS vs. PHI
24. Brett Favre, NYJ at SEA
NOTE: Snow in early forecast.
25. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. HOU
26. *Seneca Wallace, SEA vs. NYJ
27. Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN at CLE
28. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. PIT
29. Ken Dorsey, CLE vs. CIN
30. Joe Flacco, BAL at DAL

Running Back
1. Pierre Thomas, NO at DET
NOTE: The sneaky MVP of the fantasy playoffs.
2. *Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. ATL
3. Steve Slaton, HOU at OAK
NOTE: Deserves Pro Bowl spot over Ronnie Brown.
4. Thomas Jones, NYJ at SEA
5. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at WAS
6. *Matt Forte, CHI vs. GB
7. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at NYG
8. Sammy Morris, NE vs. ARI
9. Steven Jackson, STL vs. SF
10. Michael Turner, ATL at MIN
NOTE: Usable anywhere.
11. Ronnie Brown, MIA at KC
NOTE: Where are the receptions?
12. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at TB
13. Cedric Benson, CIN at CLE
NOTE: Safer than you think.
14. *Kevin Smith, DET vs. NO
15. *Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. CAR
16. *Clinton Portis, WAS vs. PHI
NOTE: Sore back, no work Friday.
17. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. PIT
18. *Marshawn Lynch, BUF at DEN
NOTE: Nicked up, be careful.
19. Kevin Faulk, NE vs. ARI
20. Ryan Grant, GB at CHI
21. Willie Parker, PIT at TEN
22. Larry Johnson, KC vs. MIA
23. Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. CIN
NOTE: Bad weather helps his cause.
24. *DeShaun Foster, SF at STL
25. Maurice Morris, SEA vs. NYJ
26. *Le'Ron McClain, BAL at DAL
27. Justin Fargas, OAK vs. HOU
28. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. SD
29. Darren McFadden, OAK vs. HOU
NOTE: More valuable as a wing player.
30. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at NYG
31. *Frank Gore, SF at STL
32. *Tashard Choice, DAL vs. BAL
33. Fred Jackson, BUF at DEN
NOTE: More powerful than you think.
34. Cadillac Williams, TB vs. SD
35. Leon Washington, NYJ at SEA
NOTE: Why isn't he used more?
36. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. ATL
37. Tim Hightower, ARI at NE
38. Correll Buckhalter, PHI at WAS
39. Ricky Williams, MIA at KC
40. LenDale White, TEN vs. PIT
41. *Marion Barber, DAL vs. BAL
NOTE: Too risky to use.
42. Ladell Betts, WAS vs. PHI
43. *Derrick Ward, NYG vs. CAR
44. *Willis McGahee, BAL at DAL
45. Mewelde Moore, PIT at TEN
46. LaMont Jordan, NE vs. ARI
47. Tatum Bell, DEN vs. BUF
48. Jerious Norwood, ATL at MIN
49. Julius Jones, SEA vs. NYJ
50. Selvin Young, DEN vs. BUF
51. *Brandon Jackson, GB at CHI
52. *Jason Wright, CLE vs. CIN
53. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. CAR
54. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. MIA
55. Adrian Peterson, CHI vs. GB
56. T.J. Duckett, SEA vs. NYJ
NOTE: Always a shot at a cheap touchdown.
57. Darren Sproles, SD at TB
58. Michael Robinson, SF at STL
59. P.J. Pope, DEN vs. BUF
60. Ryan Moats, HOU at OAK
61. Jacob Hester, SD at TB
62. Mike Sellers, WAS vs. PHI
63. *Ray Rice, BAL at DAL
64. Rudi Johnson, DET vs. NO
65. Leonard Weaver, SEA vs. NYJ
66. Kenneth Darby, STL vs. SF
67. Gary Russell, PIT at TEN

Wide Receiver
1. Calvin Johnson, DET vs. NO
NOTE: Baby, you're a big star now.
2. Roddy White, ATL at MIN
3. Andre Johnson, HOU at OAK
4. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. BUF
5. Marques Colston, NO at DET
6. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at NE
7. Steve Smith, CAR at NYG
8. Randy Moss, NE vs. ARI
NOTE: Weather drops him significantly.
9. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. SD
10. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. BAL
11. Greg Jennings, GB at CHI
NOTE: Cold one expected Monday.
12. Wes Welker, NE vs. ARI
13. Lance Moore, NO at DET
14. *Santana Moss, WAS vs. PHI
15. Isaac Bruce, SF at STL
16. *Vincent Jackson, SD at TB
17. Lee Evans, BUF at DEN
18. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. MIA
19. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. BUF
20. Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. ATL
21. Kevin Walter, HOU at OAK
22. DeSean Jackson, PHI at WAS
23. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. CIN
24. Devin Hester, CHI vs. GB
NOTE: A legitimate receiver now.
25. Torry Holt, STL vs. SF
26. Hines Ward, PIT at TEN
27. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at CLE
28. Donald Driver, GB at CHI
29. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at SEA
30. Santonio Holmes, PIT at TEN
31. Steve Breaston, ARI at NE
NOTE: Probably starts in place of Boldin, but beware weather.
32. *Domenik Hixon, NYG vs. CAR
33. Davone Bess, MIA at KC
34. *Derrick Mason, BAL at DAL
35. Mark Clayton, BAL at DAL
36. *Anquan Boldin, ARI at NE
NOTE: Probably inactive, check Sunday.
37. Deion Branch, SEA vs. NYJ
38. *Kevin Curtis, PHI at WAS
39. *Donnie Avery, STL vs. SF
40. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at NYG
41. Laveranues Coles, NYJ at SEA
42. Chad Johnson, CIN at CLE
NOTE: All talk, no action.
43. Michael Jenkins, ATL at MIN
44. Justin Gage, TEN vs. PIT
45. Bryant Johnson, SF at STL
46. *Roy Williams, DAL vs. BAL
47. Steve Smith, NYG vs. CAR
48. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. CAR
49. Ted Ginn, MIA at KC
50. Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. GB
51. Jason Avant, PHI at WAS
NOTE: McNabb seems to trust him.
52. Nate Washington, PIT at TEN
53. Devery Henderson, NO at DET
54. *Josh Reed, BUF at DEN
55. Chris Chambers, SD at TB
56. John Standeford, DET vs. NO
NOTE: More chances with McDonald out.
57. Bobby Engram, SEA vs. NYJ
58. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. ATL
59. Jason Hill, SF at STL
60. Jerheme Urban, ARI at NE
61. Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. PHI
62. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. HOU
63. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. BAL
64. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. ATL
65. James Jones, GB at CHI
66. Chris Henry, CIN at CLE
67. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. PIT
68. Roscoe Parrish, BUF at DEN
69. *Koren Robinson, SEA vs. NYJ
70. Harry Douglas, ATL at MIN
71. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. SD
72. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. PIT
73. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. GB
74. Dane Looker, STL vs. SF
75. Jordy Nelson, GB at CHI
76. David Clowney, NYJ at SEA
NOTE: Heck of a catch last week.
77. *Josh Cribbs, CLE vs. CIN
78. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. BUF
79. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ at SEA
80. Sinorice Moss, NYG vs. CAR
81. Jabar Gaffney, NE vs. ARI
82. David Anderson, HOU at OAK
83. Devin Thomas, WAS vs. PHI
84. Donte' Stallworth, CLE vs. CIN
85. Devard Darling, KC vs. MIA
86. *Hank Baskett, PHI at WAS
NOTE: Not expected to go.
87. Will Franklin, KC vs. MIA

Tight End
1. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. MIA
2. *Jason Witten, DAL vs. BAL
3. Owen Daniels, HOU at OAK
4. Antonio Gates, SD at TB
5. Chris Cooley, WAS vs. PHI
6. Jeremy Shockey, NO at DET
NOTE: At least the matchup is right.
7. John Carlson, SEA vs. NYJ
8. *Zach Miller, OAK vs. HOU
9. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. GB
10. Dustin Keller, NYJ at SEA
11. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. ATL
12. Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. BUF
13. Vernon Davis, SF at STL
14. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. CAR
15. Donald Lee, GB at CHI
NOTE: Quietly getting into the end zone regularly.
16. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. PIT
NOTE: He's disappeared in second half.
17. L.J. Smith, PHI at WAS
18. Billy Miller, NO at DET
19. Todd Heap, BAL at DAL
20. Heath Miller, PIT at TEN
21. Anthony Fasano, MIA at KC
22. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. SD
23. David Martin, MIA at KC
24. Ben Watson, NE vs. ARI
25. Alex Smith, TB vs. SD
26. Daniel Graham, DEN vs. BUF
27. Michael Gaines, DET vs. NO
NOTE: Gets open, needs better hands.
28. Martellus Bennett, DAL vs. BAL
29. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. GB
30. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. PIT
31. Brent Celek, PHI at WAS
32. Darnell Dinkins, CLE vs. CIN

Kicker
1. Garrett Hartley, NO at DET
NOTE: Indoors in a game that should be high scoring.
2. Joe Nedney, SF at STL
3. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. ATL
4. Jason Elam, ATL at MIN
5. Matt Bryant, TB vs. SD
6. David Akers, PHI at WAS
7. Matt Prater, DEN vs. BUF
8. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. GB
9. John Carney, NYG vs. CAR
10. Kris Brown, HOU at OAK
11. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. PIT
12. Dan Carpenter, MIA at KC
13. Jason Hanson, DET vs. NO
NOTE: He's automatic from 40 and up.
14. Nick Folk, DAL vs. BAL
15. Jeff Reed, PIT at TEN
16. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. ARI
NOTE: Done in by the weather?
17. John Kasay, CAR at NYG
18. Nate Kaeding, SD at TB
19. Jay Feely, NYJ at SEA
20. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. CIN
21. Mason Crosby, GB at CHI
22. Rian Lindell, BUF at DEN
23. *Matt Stover, BAL at DAL
24. *Josh Brown, STL vs. SF
25. Neil Rackers, ARI at NE
26. Olindo Mare, SEA vs. NYJ
27. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. HOU
28. Connor Barth, KC vs. MIA
29. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. PHI
30. Shayne Graham, CIN at CLE

Defense
1. Dallas vs. Baltimore
NOTE: Pass rush is on fire.
2. Pittsburgh at Tennessee
3. Baltimore at Dallas
4. Philadelphia at Washington
5. Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh
6. New York Giants vs. Carolina
NOTE: Jake still forces the ball in tight spots.
7. San Francisco at St. Louis
8. New England vs. Arizona
NOTE: Weather could limit the Arizona pass game.
9. New York Jets at Seattle
10. Houston at Oakland
11. Minnesota vs. Atlanta
12. Miami at Kansas City
13. Carolina at New York Giants
14. New Orleans at Detroit
15. Tampa Bay vs. San Diego
16. Chicago vs. Green Bay
17. Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
18. Atlanta at Minnesota
19. Washington vs. Philadelphia
20. Green Bay at Chicago
21. San Diego at Tampa Bay
22. Denver vs. Buffalo
23. Seattle vs. New York Jets
24. Cincinnati at Cleveland
25. Oakland vs. Houston
26. Buffalo at Denver
27. Arizona at New England
28. St. Louis vs. San Francisco
29. Kansas City vs. Miami
30. Detroit vs. New Orleans