10:52 AM Thu, Feb 12, 2009 | Permalink
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By Michael Salfino
Back to the bums, inspired again by Gene McCaffrey's great Wise Guy Baseball Annual. If you missed Part I, here it is. Next week, last year's bum starters and relievers. The analysis of the second basemen and shortstops below can also be found in the profiles I wrote for the "Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball 2009 Draft Guide," which will be available wherever magazines are sold beginning in March.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: He's not going to be cheap in the New York market (too many Yankees fans). And it would have been more helpful if the power numbers were down as appreciably as was the average. Fantasy owners don't price average well considering that it's so much harder to make up ground there even after half the league has packed it in (losing players can actually help weaker teams in average). The 97 RBI of 2007 were a product of a better Yankees lineup than we can reasonably expect in 2009. And he's an extreme ground-ball hitter, so don't project even 20 homers. But the .320 average (or thereabouts) should return and be all the more valuable given his low rate of walks (26 last year in 597 ABs).
Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays: Here are Hill's rates of fly balls that have cleared the wall since 2005 (in order): 2.4 percent, 3.4 percent, 8.0 percent, 2.3 percent. Clearly, that 2007 figure is the outlier. If Hill doesn't hit 15 homers, he's of no use because he doesn't run or control the strike zone (which limits his average). Hill's being sold as a bum to own in many quarters because he's at the right age for a peak year (26). But we've already seen that peak. Even aside from his concussion issues, he's just 50/50 to have a starting job come Memorial Day.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians: At 22, we expect growing pains. But he put it behind him after being promoted back from the minors with a .320/.398/.464 stretch to end the season. Cabrera profiles as a No. 2 hitter, but will need to improve his rate of 3.8 pitches per plate appearances for the stat-savvy Indians to consider moving him back to the top of the lineup. There's a decent chance for double-digits in homers and/or steals. He did grab 25 bags in 105 minor-league games in '07, but hasn't run much in the bigs. Our friends at Baseball Info Solutions confirm what our eyes say: he's a wizard with the glove. Defense at second keeps your guy playing through a normal slump.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: The power came back late in the year, presumably after the torn labrum healed. He slugged .516 in September. He likely hasn't touched his ceiling yet at age 24. Zimmerman doesn't meet the strict "bum" criteria. He's not going to be discounted. But he's a potential star who hasn't peaked yet and who already has been a productive player. Usually, you have to pay a premium to speculate on the promise of greatness that Zimmerman reasonably holds. One more big injury, though, and he's dead to me.
Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels: He only qualifies at third. But if you stick a guy with four homers in his last 1,023 plate appearances at a corner, you'd better get plus power from your middle infielders and/or catcher, and that's expensive. Figgins walks at a high rate for a guy with no power (16 XBH in '08). In fact, he's one of just six guys since 2000 with an isolated slugging (slugging minus average) under .100 and an average of .295 or worse to have at least a .350 on-base percentage (minimum 1,000 plate appearances). The others: Jason Kendall, David Eckstein, Jamey Carroll, Mark McLemore and Ryan Theriot. Even if Figgins gets to .350 again, his OPS will be barely .700 and that's not something any team, let alone a contender, should start at third. Why hold your breath hoping the Angels don't figure that out?
Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies: He's discounted relative to last year, but appropriately. The 30 homers of 2007 were never sustainable. He converts about 6 percent of fly balls into homers most years. Age 30 is about when many base stealers start slowing down. I'll give him .280 with 10 homers and 40 bags, but he's consistently priced higher even in expert drafts/auctions.
Khalil Greene, SS, Cardinals: Finally out of Petco. But Greene hit significantly better at home (.624 OPS) than on the road (.529) last year. The smart guys will look at 2007 and note his road OPS that season was .840 and project him closer to that. Career splits? .802 OPS on the road with 50 homers, versus 34 at home. In 500 at-bats, Greene, an extreme fly-ball hitter, should hit 15 to 20 homers. Project the low end of that range given that Busch Stadium has suppressed homers the past three years almost as much as Petco (minus 16 percent vs. minus 19 percent in San Diego).
Julio Lugo, SS, Red Sox: A true test for the Bum Strategy is stepping up to buy Lugo and walking away from the table happy. Boston couldn't give him away this winter. His on-base percentage wasn't bad (.355), but he can't sniff the top of the Red Sox lineup after his 2007 (.294 OBP). If you start him for the speed upside, you will pay a price in other categories (nine homers in his last 833 at-bats). He's even a minus defensively - 22nd in The Fielding Bible shortstop, plus/minus ranks.
Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks. Another true bum. The smart guys run away because they've been laughing at the Diamondbacks for giving him all that money instead of just keeping Carlos Quentin. No one expects the steals to bounce back. But he's a smart player and maybe the opportunities will be there for the taking again like they were in 2007. McCaffrey notes how Keith Hernandez said last year that any player with brains should be able to steal 15 bases just catching teams when they're sleeping. While the conventional wisdom now is that Arizona doesn't run, they did under manager Bob Melvin in 2007 (fifth in the NL in attempts).
Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Not a bum. When you regress from your career year to basically your career averages, you're just yourself again. Don't expect or pay a penny more for Rowand than what he actually earned last year.
Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees: He slugged .424 last year and is 35, so this could be the beginning of the end. However, he's a Hall of Fame-caliber player when you factor in Japan. Joe Girardi's loyalty to Matsui is unknown and probably not worth banking on. So he'll have to hit early to stay in the lineup. There's risk, but a very reasonable path to .300-20-100, and I'll buy if the discount on those numbers is at least 20 percent.
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