Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

One thing that fantasy owners overlook this time of year is weather - mainly wind. If your players are playing outdoors, especially in the Northeast, make sure you check the weather forecast Sunday morning. Quarterbacks, receivers and kickers tend to struggle in bad weather conditions (e.g., any winds over 20 MPH). If you have two matchups that seem close, don't be afraid to make weather the deciding factor. The same goes if you're evaluating a trade and one guy plays in a dome and the other plays in the Northeast. Weather is a factor for the first time in some of the following Week 12 recommendations.

Upgrades

Derrick Ward, RB, and Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: The Giants proved they have the best offensive line in football by manhandling the front seven of the Ravens, the league's best rushing defense. Even with starter Brandon Jacobs healthy, Ward and Bradshaw both average more than five yards per carry and are worth owning and even starting, depending on the matchup and the size of your league. Now that Jacobs has a knee injury that may sideline him this week, Ward and Bradshaw merit significant upgrades.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: I called Addai a "no change" last week, despite his recent struggles, based on the Colts' improvements on offense and their soft upcoming schedule. That Addai has shown that he can take advantage of that schedule, his stock is way up (ahead of Brian Westbrook's, for example).

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets: Two weeks ago, I participated in a midseason draft and took Keller in the 20th and final round; he was the 24th TE taken. Now if I did a similar draft, I'd unquestionably draft Keller as a top-10 TE, probably top 5. It's not just that Keller had a random TD or two; he's become Brett Favre's favorite target. He didn't score last week against the Pats, but he was targeted in the end zone and was the go-to guy in overtime. If you don't own an elite weapon like Antonio Gates, then Keller is better than who you are playing.

Matt Bryant, K, Bucs: The Bucs have been struggling in the red zone all season, and losing Earnest Graham for the year certainly won't help that. Plus all of Bryant's remaining games are either at home in Florida, where weather won't be a factor, or in a dome. It's time to start treating Bryant as an elite option at kicker.

No Change

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: There were three things working against Rivers last week: bad weather, a sloppy field and a really good Steelers defense. With three straight home games against mediocre defenses, then a roadie against the Chiefs, Rivers won't have any of those problems anytime soon.

Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers: Hill deserves an upgrade in the sense that he's the established starter for the Niners. But if you're expecting him to duplicate last week's stats on a regular basis, there's reason to be skeptical. Last week's opponent, the Rams, have been laying down against everyone. Plus, Frank Gore is clearly the center of this Niners offense.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans: While his stats against the Colts looked really good., notice that Ahman Green got both short-yardage TDs. Prior to the game, Gary Kubiak voiced his concerns that Slaton was "wearing down," and it seems that Kubiak decided to keep him fresh by giving Green the goal-line touches. The Texans' upcoming schedule is OK. Hold, don't buy.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: I'm sticking with this call despite two more TDs last week. On a struggling Jaguars offense, I doubt Jones-Drew keeps getting those opportunities week after week. The schedule is far from favorable, too, including a matchup this week against a Vikings defense far better against the run than the pass.

Downgrades

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: That's three straight matchups where Westbrook has struggled, including two games against inferior opponents (Seahawks and Bengals). Perhaps Westbrook is not 100-percent healthy. Maybe Andy Reid is just a dunce for not calling more rushing plays. But three straight poor games merit a downgrade, and the chances for a bounce-back are far from ideal against the Ravens.

Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: My concern here is not just that Hightower's stats have suffered. Rather, backup J.J. Arrington was used in numerous goal-line packages last week, scoring one TD rushing and another receiving. While those came out of the shotgun, an enormous part of Hightower's value derived from short-yardage touchdowns.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: I expected Evans to struggle against the Patriots two weeks ago, as they always seem to shut him down (which is something to keep in mind if you're still playing in Week 17). But Evans was also invisible last week against a Browns team that had just been lit up by the Broncos' passing game. Worse yet, after three early interceptions, it seemed like Trent Edwards was afraid to throw the ball downfield to Evans. Most of Evans' value comes from downfield throws. And the weather in Buffalo will get worse.

By Michael Salfino

Let's look further into the numbers as we enter the final third of the 2008 season before focusing on individual statistics that we hope will better predict future results.

In this week's Power Ranks we stuck with net YPP (yards per play). Of course, YPP is mostly YPA (yards per pass attempt). Both also include sacks. YPP, though, gives some measure to relative running game dominance - which, when extreme enough, can prove decisive.

This switch to YPP magnifies the Giants' dominance. New York is ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd and 2nd among the 32 teams in our key stats: net YPP, net red-zone possessions, net interceptions and net third-down percentage. That is why the Giants are the overwhelming favorite right now to win the Super Bowl: about 5-to-2 in Vegas. The Titans are 5-to-1. The second favorite in the NFC is Carolina, all the way down to 10-to-1.

My index has the Bucs ahead of the Panthers. But I don't know what to make of Tampa Bay. I'm inclined to defer to the 25-to-1 number Vegas is posting. I look at possessions because it's generally more meaningful than efficiency. But all rules have exceptions. The Bucs convert just a third of their red-zone trips into TDs, tied with the Rams and just ahead of the last-place Raiders (26 percent).

The team I'd least like to face if I'm the Giants is not Tampa Bay or even this week's opponent, the Cardinals, but still Philadelphia. But the Eagles keep horribly underachieving. They seem unlucky: 0-4-1 in games decided by six or less points. But we can't discount the possibility that they fail to execute late due to some tangible shortcoming of talent and/or coaching. The Chargers are the Eagles of the AFC: 1-4 in close games.

Continuing with our tracking of net YPA in games, teams that win just that stat were 11-4 last week and are now 119-40 for the season, holding firm at a .750 win percentage.

Before moving on to more specific recommendations, consider this proposal for changing the overtime system in the NFL: The home team declares the yard line and direction in which the offense will start overtime. The road team gets to pass (let the home team have the ball there) or play (accept the offer). Then you just play it like any other game. The only thing we lose is the overtime kickoff. Oh, and the loser loses the right to gripe if the team that gets the ball first scores.

Buy

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: He's better than Deuce McAllister, whose four-game suspension should begin Sunday after Tuesday's appeal is heard. Reggie Bush is questionable again for Monday night. Thomas had 144 total yards and a score at KC.

Packers running game: You know about Ryan Grant, but Brandon Jackson averaged five yards on 10 carries, too. Chicago was playing a lot of eight-man fronts, including on the second-quarter TD when the Green Bay line moved the Bears' interior four yards into the end zone for an easy Grant score.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Broncos: The Tribal Council has spoken. Hillis is the Survivor in the Denver backfield. He seems like he can run it enough and is, at minimum, the best goal-line fit.

Hold

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: He's taken over as the league's best receiver, catching 75 percent of passes thrown his way. Of these total targets, a league-leading 53 percent of for first downs (or TDs). Larry Fitzgerald is not in the top 20 in either of these stats.

Derrick Ward, RB, Giants: The free agent to be is sixth in rushes of 10 yards or more: 20. But that's 20 percent of his attempts, the league best rate by a mile.

Sell

Trent Edwards, QB, Bills: This supposedly savvy gamer is 30th in TD/INT net (subtracting interception percentage from TD percentage).

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks: Mike Holmgren is going to need to sneak out of town with Hasselbeck last in the league in TD percentage (2.04 percent of attempts; league leader Philip Rivers is 7.09 percent) and 31st in YPA.

Brady Quinn, QB, Browns: His arm strength is borderline, at best. So his upside is Chad Pennington. Not bad, but nothing over which to bench Derek Anderson (29 TD passes his first year as starter). Quinn can't throw a deep out and has to set properly on all throws, not possible given the speed of the NFL pass rush.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns: Tied for first in passes not caught, 51, and Quinn's weak wing has put an end to downfield ambitions.

Titans running game: Kerry Collins had better stay sharp. Chris Johnson has been stuffed (zero or negative yards) a league-high 29 times. LenDale White is also bottom 20 with 13 stuffs.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Raiders TE Zach Miller has more big-play catches (25 or more yards) than Moss.

By Michael Salfino

Just six weeks left in the always too quick NFL season, as what once seemed like a marathon suddenly turns into a sprint. Here's what made it into my Notebook while watching Week 11.

DeAngelo Williams gets back to full speed after contact as well or better than any back in the league. Seeing him perform so wonderfully now, you wonder why the Panthers felt it necessary to invest so much draft resources into the position (via the equally impressive Jonathan Stewart). Carolina needs to sound the 911 for that popgun passing game (155 net passing yards the past two weeks combined).

Broncos vs. Falcons gave us a great chance to directly compare the two young QBs vying to be the league's next biggest star at the position. Jay Cutler won the game and the QB battle. But remember, he's in his third year while Matt Ryan is still but a rookie. If you gave league GMs the chance to pick either player today to start a franchise, I bet the results would be split pretty evenly. I'd still take Cutler because of his better mobility and his superior arm strength. Ryan, though, seems to have an uncanny natural feel for the position, the most challenging in team sports by a country mile.

The Broncos' defense was getting props for rallying without four starters. But if the defense has been so bad all year, maybe more starters should be sidelined with or without injuries. You don't really know if the backups are better until you play them.

We've talked a lot about Marvin Harrison, but another future Hall of Famer who can no longer get separation after knee trouble is the younger Torry Holt, averaging just 10 yards and change per reception.

Kurt Warner has thrown for 300 or more yards in about half (49.5 percent) of his career starts. His team has won about 65 percent of these games. The Cardinals almost blew another Warner yardage outburst due to their inability to run the ball. Exploding early and often for points via the passing game is Step 1 in dominating in the NFL. But the necessary follow-up is then playing beat the clock via the run. The Cardinals are certain to get picked off come January because they can manage to lose to even bad teams and even when their passing game is clicking on all cylinders.

Tim Hightower has to get a downgrade because he's on the sideline now on first and goal watching J.J. Arrington getting TD carries out of the shotgun spread. The Cardinals' running game now is gimmicky -- no real production out of conventional sets.

Some colleagues I respect e-mailed me about how impressive the Packers are despite their record. I don't buy it. Consider they now have nine TDs on returns (seven via their defense). Opponents have one. So, from scrimmage, they've outscored opponents by 16 points over 10 games, which tells me they really are a .500-type of team.

It was impressive and even shocking how the Packers ran it so well against the Bears, who stick eight men in the box and dare everyone to throw. I'm looking forward to seeing the NFL Shortcut on Tuesday so I can better see what happened. For now, upgrade Ryan Grant.

For the first time on Thursday you saw a Jets offense distinct from what they would have been able to run with Chad Pennington. Many of Brett Favre's shorter throws were rifle shots that created necessary space to get completions and some yards after catch. The key example was the game-deciding, overtime, 3rd-and-15 completion to Dustin Keller, who I repeat again (and again) is a future star (and the future is now).

The Steelers fans are happy about the win, but Ben Roethlisberger was dumped four more times by a Chargers defense that recorded one sack the prior three weeks - when Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen ran out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage.

The Ravens kept their precious streak of holding individual opposing backs to less than 100 yards (now 29 games in a row). But you can see how stats can be manipulated when you note the Giants' running game gashed them for 211 yards (minus the kneel downs) on 31 attempts.

Peyton Manning has been sacked twice in his last five games (198 attempts). What's not discussed enough (or at all, as far as I know) is the role the no huddle plays in this. Most teams huddle up and juggle personnel on passing downs, causing them to run the play clock down to just about zero and allowing defenses to perfectly time blitzes and/or race out of defensive looks just before the snap. You can't do that against Indy because they're ready to snap it every down with about 20 seconds still left.