8:45 PM Sun, Oct 19, 2008 | Permalink
Mike McDermott  Email
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By Michael Salfino
Clinton Portis is proving the exception to the rule that backs wear down after 1,750 carries, something only 44 guys in the history of the sport have topped. LaDanian Tomlinson, though, seems to be proving the rule.
Portis' yards per carry last year dipping under 4.0, coupled with his need to adjust to a new offensive system, made him seem the more likely candidate for severe attrition. But calls like this are never black and white. It's just trying to maximize your odds, like when counting cards in blackjack. When the chance for something gets over 60 percent or 65 percent, you bet that way. Of course, you easily still can lose. But over time, you'll be right more often than not, as long as you don't let exceptions like this alter your rule.
Portis has four 100-yard games in a row and is running as well as ever. The key to his success is great blocking all along the Washington line, but especially from fullback Mike Sellers and tight end Chris Cooley. Rest assured, when a back is on a roll like Portis, the fullback and the tight end are winning battles with linebackers and defensive ends.
Tomlinson, though, looks shot. He says his toe is feeling better than it has all year, but he keeps running worse and worse. LT has 2,488 carries now and nearly 500 receptions on top of that. Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and Curtis Martin are the only guys in history with great years as exclusive ball carriers after reaching that touches threshold. Again, maybe Tomlinson rebounds like last year, but I say the odds are 25 percent, based partly on history but mostly on what I'm seeing between the lines.
The most shocking thing for me about Sunday's action was how ineffective the Colts' passing game was in Green Bay. The wind was a factor. But only in one direction, and Peyton Manning could never get on track as the Packers played press coverage and took away a bread-and-butter Colts play - having the outside receiver cut under the slot guy on a shallow cross. The adjustment there is to swing your back out against man coverage vs. a linebacker. But Dominic Rhodes is a poor receiver relative to the injured Joseph Addai (hamstring).
Matt Forte is getting props everywhere because the Bears can suddenly score. But that success is mostly due to Kyle Orton. Forte now has averaged 3.3, 2.3, 2.4, 3.8 and 2.8 yards per carry the past five games. Give the Vikings props for their always-stout run defense. But Forte lacks playmaking skills. The rookie is solid and versatile given his receiving skills, but not an impact talent by any stretch.
Those fourth-quarter 80- and 66-yard runs (by LenDale White and Chris Johnson, respectively) for the Titans aren't a fluke. Tennessee had a 15-week, intensive conditioning program during the offseason that's really paying off in the second half of games, and especially in the running game.
Raiders WR Javon Walker looked indistinguishable from the good player he was in Denver and Green Bay in finally teaming with JaMarcus Russell (five catches, 75 yards and a TD). More importantly, he looked very pumped up and motivated all day, something that observers claimed was lacking since he considered retirement after being attacked in Las Vegas during the offseason.
Charger Philip Rivers didn't have the pass protection he received in recent weeks and thus couldn't generate downfield throws. He averaged a poor 9.45 yards per completion, compared to the league-leading 14.11 yards he brought into the game (average was 10.68).
A big problem now in pass protection is the adjustment defenses have made to the shotgun. The center looks through his legs to get the snap instructions and then snaps the ball within a second or two of peeking. This gives defenses a signal to switch rushers around and screw up blocking assignments already called by the center. And it gives rushers a running start into the snap. The adjustment is to bluff the peak/snap a time or two, but there's often not enough time on the play clock for that.
Reggie Bush's injury will hurt Drew Brees more than even losing Marques Colston. The key to passing is to threaten all strata of the field. Defenses really had to worry about Bush coming out of the backfield on short stuff because of his playmaking moves and great speed. Now, like Carolina did after Bush's injury, they can play deeper and choke the chances for big plays.
Guys on bad teams with some running back value going forward: Kevin Smith (Lions) and Cedric Benson (Bengals, even assuming Carson Palmer, elbow, doesn't return).
Even though he dropped a perfectly thrown long pass in a key moment, Niners rookie Josh Morgan is a very talented guy in a passing system. And Mike Furrey will get plenty of opportunities with the Lions behind and teams loading up to stop the great Calvin Johnson.
Packers RB Ryan Grant earned a reprieve. But Browns QB Derek Anderson is back in the darkness after seeming to come through it fully last Monday night.
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