Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Mark P. Stopa

With the NFL season four weeks over, it's time to put aside your preseason predictions and take a fresh look at things. Now that we know which teams are better than expected (Redskins, Bills, Titans) and which are worse (Browns, Rams, Bengals), it's important to keep remaining schedules in mind as you decide which players to target and which to avoid in waivers and trades. Considering that, here are my recommendations as we head into Week 5.

Upgrades

Matt Forte, RB, Bears: I really like Forte the rest of the season, not just because he's been performing well as the Bears feature back, but because the Bears' remaining schedule has several juicy matchups: Lions twice, Rams, Falcons and Saints. There's no question he's a top-10 running back going forward.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: From an NFL perspective, Warner played terribly last week. From a fantasy perspective, though, he was terrific, especially in leagues that do not penalize turnovers. Lest you think that game was a fluke, i.e., similar to Brian Griese's 67-attempt game against the Bears a couple of weeks ago, rest assured it was not. Warner has been turnover-prone for years now (forcing him to score and throw even more), and the Cardinals' defense is not exactly stellar. Also, as the weather gets bad later in the year in most of the country, Warner gets his home games in the balmy desert. Going forward, Warner has some nice matchups left, including the Rams twice and the Niners. Even in the tougher matchups, though, like the Cowboys and Giants, we could reasonably find Warner throwing all game like he did against the Jets.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints: After Marques Colston got hurt, many people wondered which Saints wideout would step up in his absence. Wonder no longer. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are little more than deep threats, leaving Moore and Reggie Bush as the focus of the passing game. To put this in perspective, among the receivers I'd bench in favor of Moore this week (against a suspect Vikings pass defense) are the following: Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe and Roddy White.

No Change

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: Johnson has posted two terrific games in a row, but I'm not sold on him being a top-10 running back. The Chiefs are not going to win more than five to six games, and when they fall behind, LJ won't get the 24(+) carries that he's gotten the past two weeks. That's a problem for any running back, but especially for Johnson, because he is invisible in the passing game. If I owned Johnson, I'd gladly "sell high" for any of the following RBs: Joseph Addai, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore or Marshawn Lynch.

Brett Favre, QB, Jets: Yes, Favre and the Jets looked terrific against the Cardinals. But let's not go overboard here. It was just one game. I'm still concerned that Favre doesn't have a full grasp of the offense. Plus, I still don't think the Jets are a playoff-caliber team, and I have doubt that Favre will perform at his best later in the year if the Jets are out of contention.

Downgrades

Browns and Bengals: The Browns/Bengals matchup last week was a litmus test for key players on both teams. They all failed. Derek Anderson looks like waiver-wire fodder in many leagues, and he's dragging Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow down with him. Jamal Lewis isn't running terribly, but with the Browns unable to score points like they did last year, he's not getting the goal-line TDs that he needs to be a fantasy starter. Carson Palmer's elbow problems cut against any hope of a turnaround and T.J. Houshmandzadeh's value is tied to Palmer. As for Chad Ocho Cinco, my mom taught me that if you don't have anything nice to say, it's better to say nothing at all.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: You can't waive a first-round running back after four weeks. But the fact that some people have even considered doing so shows just how far Grant has fallen. It's unclear whether his lack of production is due to injuries, but the simple fact is that he's not producing. A look at the Packers' remaining schedule suggests that a turnaround might not be coming, either. Although his matchups the next three weeks are not bad, after that it's a bye, then at Tennessee, at Minnesota and Chicago. That's four consecutive weeks, in the heart of the season, where it's hard to predict Grant doing much of anything. Even if Grant turns things around a bit in the next couple of games, sell high.

All Steelers: The Steelers are 3-1, but this team is not in good shape. You probably know that Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year and that Willie Parker won't play until after the Steelers' Week 6 bye. Unfortunately, the Steelers injury problems run much deeper. Coming into the season, the offensive line was projected to struggle due to the defection of Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca to the Jets. Now the Steelers are also without starting guard Kendall Simmons, who is out for the year. I know the Eagles and the Ravens had something to do with it as well, but this is why Ben Roethlisberger has been taking so many hits in recent weeks. My colleague Michael Salfino noted Tuesday here how Roethlisberger is being sacked on 17 percent of dropbacks, second most frequent behind J.T. O'Sullivan. Until the Steelers can get better line play, he, Santonio Holmes, Ward and whoever starts at running back must be downgraded.

 Tags  Brett Favre Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns football Kurt Warner Lance Moore Larry Johnson Mark Stopa Matt Forte NFL Stock Watch Pittsburgh Steelers Ryan Grant

---