Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Mark P. Stopa

Early in the season, I resist relying too much on statistics, as they can be skewed by small sample size and one or two favorable (or unfavorable) matchups. Now that every NFL team has played at least six games, the statistics have much more meaning. With this in mind, here are my recommended upgrades and downgrades as we head into Week 8 of the NFL season.

Upgrades

Opponents of Broncos and Chiefs: Earlier this year, I saw how badly the Lions and the Rams were playing on defense and recommended starting players whose teams were facing them. I continue to believe that you should take advantage of matchups against these teams, but would now suggest two more teams for you to "pick on": the Broncos and the Chiefs. Nearly halfway through the season, the Broncos and the Chiefs are giving up 5.4 and 5.6 yards per rush, respectively. That's an extraordinary statistic when you consider that the Rams are the only other team that gives up more than five yards per rush. In fact, 25 of the 32 teams are under 4.5. To put these figures in perspective, LaDainian Tomlinson has never averaged more than 5.4 yards per carry in any season in his Hall of Fame career (including his record-setting, 28-TD season in 2006). Emmitt Smith, the NFL's all-time rushing leader, never averaged 5.4 yards per carry, either. Hence, you could say that the Broncos and the Chiefs make every running back who faces them look better than LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith in their prime. Also, lest you think that the Broncos and the Chiefs are only bad against the rush, they are each giving up 7.8 yards per pass, which basically means that every quarterback who faces them plays like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Suffice it to say that you should take advantage of the Broncos' and the Chiefs' pathetic defenses when setting your fantasy lineups each week.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: I upgraded Portis a few weeks ago, but at the time, I still considered him a notch below Marion Barber, Adrian Peterson and Brian Westbrook. Now? Let's just say that things have changed. The Cowboys are imploding, Westbrook is trying to get healthy, and the Vikings don't have a consistent passing game to take the pressure off Peterson. Meanwhile, Portis is playing like a beast, week after week, as the feature back in a run-oriented offense. I am participating in a midseason fantasy draft next week and I would not be surprised to see Portis taken first overall.

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots: Yes, I know that he played the Broncos, but the stats he posted in that game are not the reason for the upgrade. Laurence Maroney just got put on injured reserve and LaMont Jordan hasn't played in weeks, leaving the feature role to Morris. The injury that Morris suffered on Monday night seems minor, and prior to that, he got all of the Patriots' carries. If Morris can stay healthy, he'll be an every-week starter as a second running back.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: You've probably seen the incredible TD catch that Evans made last week, securing the ball with one hand against his helmet before going out of bounds. What was more important about this play, though, is that it came on a fade pattern from the 2-yard line. Evans is well-known for his ability to catch deep balls and pile up yardage between the 20s. If Evans keeps getting looks in the red zone like that, he will be a top-10 receiver. The markedly improved play of Trent Edwards (8.0 YPA) also bodes well for Evans.

No Change

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: I upgraded Brees last week, calling him the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL. So what does Brees do the first game afterward? Has his worst game of the year, of course. I wouldn't worry, though. It was just one game. Marques Colston will round into form soon. Reggie Bush's injury doesn't help Brees, but it will mean that Brees is throwing the ball even more. Brees should get back on track this week against a bad Chargers pass defense.

All players who just played the Broncos or Chiefs: As I discussed above, the Broncos and the Chiefs are so bad on defense that they make the players who played them seem better than they really are. Last week, for instance, LenDale White had an 80-yard touchdown against the Chiefs. White will never do that again. Matt Cassel became the sixth quarterback (in seven games) to register a QB rating higher than 100 against the Broncos. (If you're unfamiliar with that statistic, it basically means that Cassel became the sixth quarterback in seven games versus the Broncos to look like Steve Young in his prime). If you own someone who just had a good game against the Broncos or the Chiefs, it might be a good time to "sell high."

Downgrades

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: I can tell you that Tomlinson lacks explosion and is not getting big plays. I can point to statistics to support it. But the best way to explain Tomlinson's downgrade is this: I'm a Bills fan, and when I watched Bills/Chargers on Sunday, I was actually rooting for LT to get the ball. That might sound crazy, but watching the game, it was apparent to me that the Bills' best chance to win was if LT was running (as opposed to Rivers throwing). From fantasy's best player to having opposing teams' fans rooting for him to get the ball -- THAT is how far Tomlinson has fallen. If you can get Tomlinson's former understudy, Michael Turner, for him in a trade, do so without hesitation.

All Chiefs: Larry Johnson is in the coach's doghouse and may face a suspension from the NFL for violating the personal conduct policy. Brodie Croyle is out for the year, not that he was any better than Damon Huard or Tyler Thigpen to begin with. The Chiefs' defense is terrible and their offensive line is not much better. I suppose Tony Gonzalez is an every-week starter in what has become a bad season for tight ends, and you could do worse than Dwayne Bowe. But I wouldn't want to have to rely on any Chiefs for fantasy points. This is a sinking ship.

 Tags  Clinton Portis Denver Broncos Drew Brees Kansas City Chiefs LaDainian Tomlinson Lee Evans Mark Stopa NFL Stock Watch Sammy Morris football

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