10:51 AM Tue, Oct 21, 2008 | Permalink
Mike McDermott  Email
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By Michael Salfino
It's been quite a few years since the look at key NFL stats after this large a sample of games has not revealed a single dominant team.
The single most important threshold for a dominant team, one defined as being a favorite to at least get into if not win the Super Bowl, is to be plus-2 yards in average yards per pass gained versus allowed (net YPA). Sack yards are included here. As we enter Week 8, the only team that meets this criterion is the Steelers, who jumped from 1.61 to 2.21 courtesy of the pathetic Bengals. Remember, Cincy is without Carson Palmer, probably for the remainder of the year.
Consider, though, that half the Steelers' games have come against the Ravens, the Browns and the Bengals, who are 25th, 29th and 30th in YPA gained. Also, a requirement for any championship contender is the ability to protect the QB. Since our stats factor in sack yards, this usually washes out. But the Steelers' defensive YPA number is so low we're not seeing enough of an impact from Pittsburgh being 28th in offensive sack percentage.
Besting the net-YPA number we'd expect to see from a solid playoff team (about plus-1.50 yards or greater) are just four teams: the Bills, the Chargers, the Panthers and the Saints. New Orleans was just blasted by the Panthers, who were coming off a bludgeoning at the hands of the Bucs. The Chargers, for all their stat glory, are 3-4. And Buffalo was coming off a 41-17 loss to the Cardinals. All teams have bad days, but there's reason to be skeptical of all these teams.
What about the broader Key Stat Power Index, which also ranks teams based on net third-down percentage, net red-zone possessions and net interception rate? The Eagles didn't budge from last week given their week off. They are No. 1 (net YPA for them is exactly plus-1 yard, the "likely playoff team" threshold).
Chris Liss at Rotowire.com writes a great "Beating the Book" column and usually at this time of the season challenges colleagues like me to take two or three teams to win the Super Bowl while leaving him with the rest of the field. That can be extended this year to five to seven teams, and I wouldn't touch the bet. Maybe up to 10, that's how much parity or weakness there is in the league, depending on whether you're a glass-full or glass-empty kind of guy.
Note the Colts are 22nd in the index. Can they come back and win the Super Bowl? If Peyton Manning stays healthy, absolutely. Jacksonville is 20th and can be very tough on any given Sunday. The undefeated Titans are just 11th and thus are likely overrated. The world champion Giants are eighth and I still like them a lot; that's a team being penalized unduly for one bad week.
Rounding out the top five after the Eagles are the Bucs, the Bears, the Steelers and the Redskins and the Bills (tied).
The bottom five has teams as bad as in any year: (worst first) the Lions, the Seahawks, the Chiefs, the Bengals and the Rams. Maybe St. Louis, coming off the thumping of the Tony Romo-less Cowboys, deserves some respect. But the Cowboys, who seemed so mighty just a few weeks ago, are now 16th in the power index.
Now, let's crunch more numbers to make some player recommendations.
Buy
Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: He's available on waivers in many leagues. Rudi Johnson isn't a serious consideration on a rebuilding team. Smith has 123 yards on 15 carries the last two games.
Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins: The Dolphins are fourth-best in YPA and I'll always bet that's a leading indicator for TD tosses. The key is improving his 25th-best third-down rate, which shows Miami has been too reliant on big plays.
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: The season numbers aren't there yet, but in the last three games Schaub has 953 passing yards and six TD passes, with another one as a runner.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Even with the committee in New York, he's been a beast. The Giants have the best line in football. Live with fewer touches and settle for quality over quantity. Jacobs is a top 10 back.
Hold
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: He gets the upgrade. I tried to trade for him last week thinking he's add value as a receiver, and that ultimately Marc Bulger would rebound and the Rams would at least be an average-scoring team. But St. Louis simply ran it down the Cowboys' throat on Sunday, which was shocking. Still, eight red-zone possessions in six weeks is scary bad.
Sell
Patriots offense: Here's your selling window, Randy Moss and Wes Welker owners. The Broncos defense makes studs out of everyone.
Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: He had almost 100 yards on Sunday, but needed 30 carries. Something is still not right here and buyers finally can be found.
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