Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

In addition to our normal stat roundup and weekly power rankings, let's see if 2008 is typical in favoring offensive proficiency over defensive proficiency. Then, we'll make some player recommendations that factor in our team stats.

Typically in recent NFL seasons, passing is more important than running and offense is more important than defense. We know this by isolating the teams that are best in gaining and allowing yards per pass and per rush and looking at their winning percentages. The differences year after year are consistent and significant enough to warrant our claim.

However, in 2008, something strange is happening. Defense is trumping offense in all key areas: yards per pass (YPA, adjusting for sack yards), per rush and per play.

For example, the 10 teams with the most YPA gained have won 64 percent of their games. But the teams that have allowed the fewest YPA have won 67 percent. That's usually flipped.

Yards per rush gained sees the top 10 teams winning a little less than half their games (not unusual). But the 10 teams that have allowed the fewest yards per rush win 63 percent of the time.

Per play averages also favor defensive excellence over offensive excellence: 67 percent win percentage to 63 percent (again, only looking at the top 10 teams on both sides of the ball).

The defensive YPA record would be better if the Bengals weren't somehow in there at eighth best. And that's pure coverage, as Cincy's defensive sack rate of 2.14 percent of attempts is last. It's very unusual for a team to excel in YPA allowed with such a low rate of sacks. Note teams that pressure well also generate sacks. The Redskins are also covering well (11th in YPA allowed) without bagging opposing QBs (30th in sack percentage).

I know it goes against conventional wisdom to assert that running the ball well doesn't matter nearly as much as throwing it well, but that's what the numbers scream every year. Losing teams in the top half of the league in offensive running efficiency include the Raiders, the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Chiefs, the Texans, the Lions, the Vikings, the Packers and the Jaguars.

There are about half as many teams with losing records in the top half of the offensive YPA standings and none have won less than 40 percent of their games: the Saints, the Chargers, the Packers, the Eagles and the 49ers. All but the 49ers seem likely to finish 2008 with winning records.

It was a another poor week for our net YPA stat. Teams that beat their opponent in this stat in Week 5 were just 8-6 and now sit at 55-20 for the year.

There are changes in our Power Rankings, which look only at net YPA, net red zone possessions, net interception percentage and net third-down percentage -- stats that generally correlate best with winning. The top five (in order): Giants, Ravens, Eagles, Panthers, and Bears and Titans (tied). Bottom five (worst first): Lions, Rams, Chiefs, Bengals and Seahawks. The Eagles have no business being blemished with a losing record. Note Philly also has outscored opponents by 30 points -- sixth best in football.

Now some related player recommendations.

Buy

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: The announcers on Sunday spent all game talking about how the Cowboys need to run more, then Owens was ripped postgame and early week for a routine quote about how it's "frustrating" to not get the ball more. Dallas will keep going life and death with the likes of the Bengals if they don't use the time-tested formula for winning in the NFL: pass aggressively early to beat your opponent and then run it late to beat the clock.

Players facing the Texans: Whenever I feel that I've seen it all, something like the Texans yielding 13 TDs in 14 red-zone possessions crosses my desk. Remember, the Texans have played one less game than everyone else, too. This week, Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins feast in the Texans' end zone.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: New York is sixth in YPA gained and Manning was unleashed last week even without Plaxico Burress. He slaughtered the Seahawks, who have a putrid pass defense (30th in YPA allowed). The easy part of the schedule ends after this week (Browns), but he's quickly turning into a QB who makes receivers, rather than vice versa.

Hold

Cardinals Running Game: Unstoppable when not stopping themselves with turnovers. The league-leading 26 red-zone possessions are enough for even Edgerrin James to be productive. Tim Hightower is the goal-line back and really a full-committee member with significant upside going forward.

Sell

Packers Running Game: Aaron Rodgers is too boom or bust with a bunch of big passing plays, but few long drives. Note Green Bay has averaged two red-zone possessions per game, quite bad.

 Tags  Arizona Cardinals Eli Manning football Football by the Numbers Green Bay Packers Houston Texans Michael Salfino Terrell Owens

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