Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Batters

BUY

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: He put things together nicely over the final third of the year (.326, seven homers, 11 steals, .500 slugging), and it came with a nifty screen because the Nationals don't offer a lot of fantasy buzz. Here's the cheapest 20-20 player on the board next year, and you can probably get a decent buy on his running mate, Elijah Dukes, as well.

SELL

Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies: If there's even a 15-percent chance of him being traded this winter, you probably want to beat them to the punch and move him (at full sticker) in a keeper league. Holliday's fantasy value comes from being a dynamic player at home (.357/.423/.645) and an ordinary guy at sea level (.280/.348/.455). His 28 steals from 2008 probably won't repeat; he averaged 12 a year the previous three seasons, and he's approaching the point in his career where running won't be worth the physical toll it takes on his body. This isn't a call to dump Holliday on a whim, but it's a good time to explore just what the market is - before his environment changes significantly.

HOLD

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies: He's ordinary at best against right-handed pitching, but there's otherwise a lot to like here: a patient approach at the plate, legitimate power (23 homers in 408 at-bats) and a keen sense on the bases (19 steals in 20 attempts). The Phillies plugged Werth into a key batting spot for the stretch run in 2008, and it seems that they're ready to finally give him an everyday spot from the jump in 2009.

Felipe Lopez, Utility, Cardinals: Tony La Russa loves have a few rovers on his roster, guys he can slot all over the diamond, and the versatile Lopez fits that bill (you can play him at six positions, essentially). Lopez finished the year on a mad run (.372 over the final month) and should be in the team's plans for 2009.

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: He had a surprising dip in production against left-handed pitching, but otherwise his breakthrough year validated everything we liked in this kid from the moment he hit the bigs in 2006. He's capable of being a five-category player for us into the next decade, so long as the Dodgers give him his everyday spot in March and leave him alone. Given the way Ethier uses the entire park and adjusts to off-speed pitching, a batting title isn't out of the question down the road.

Pitchers

BUY

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates: Roto players are going to run from his 2008 nightmare, but it wasn't as bad as it looked; Snell's ERA came in almost a full run higher than the peripherals suggest, and the league was obscenely lucky against him on balls in play (.364 average). Snell's strikeout numbers took a modest dip, but nothing too crazy; if he can sharpen his delivery and rebuild his confidence quickly in spring training, here's a major profit player to target, for peanuts, at the tail end of your draft.

SELL

Chad Qualls, RP, Diamondbacks: He's already endorsed as the clubhouse leader to close next year in Arizona, which means now is the best time to sell him in a keeper league. The Snakes aren't going to re-sign Brandon Lyon, but other challengers to the throne will be brought in. The smart play is to bet on volatility and hedge against a journeyman like Qualls, who's unlikely to repeat his startling finish to 2008 (the best stretch of his career).

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: Young pitchers draw a lot of buzz and generally make terrible investments after their freshman year. Kershaw will need to be great right out of the box to justify what people will pay for him next March; there's no need to be a heavy scout on this one: Simple, contrarian logic will point you to the proper play.

HOLD

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: The casual player will see the full stat package and blow off Harang, but we like the rally we saw down the stretch, when he was finally healthy again (2.39 ERA over his last seven starts). He's got a good chance to do his 16-win, 200-strikeout thing again next year -- and you'll get it for an affordable price.

 Tags  Andre Ethier baseball Chad Qualls Clayton Kershaw David Ferris Felipe Lopez Ian Snell Jayson Werth Lastings Milledge Matt Holliday NL Stock Watch

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