1:53 PM Tue, Sep 30, 2008 | Permalink
Mike McDermott  Email
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By Michael Salfino
Last week featured one big upset and a couple of near misses. But those reading here would not have been shocked by the Broncos' laying an egg in Kansas City, given their struggles all year on pass defense. Oddly, though, while Denver defied the odds the prior two weeks in winning despite being out-passed, it lost to the Chiefs while holding the edge here.
Let's examine the on-field events that led to that loss, use our key stats to rank the NFL's best and worst teams and make some related player recommendations.
It's not Denver's passing yardage total that makes us look more deeply, but rather their superior passing efficiency in a losing cause. This efficiency is measured by Yards Per Attempt (YPA), including sacks. Denver was one of five teams to fall victim in Week 4 despite having the YPA edge. The others were the Texans, the Raiders, the Rams and the Eagles. You won't find many weeks where the teams winning YPA finish only 8-5. This brings our YPA leaders record this year to 47-14, slightly under the 80 percent win percentage we expect (at 77 percent).
What happened to these teams? To find out, we can affix a point value to various on-field events courtesy of Bud Goode's nearly half-century of NFL statistical research (BudGoodeSports.com).
The Broncos threw two more picks than the Chiefs, which generally cost a team six points each. Their extra lost fumble is about minus-two points on average - remember, fumbles come with runs, and teams tend to run more when they're winning. Sacks are worth about three points each, but the teams were even there. The Broncos had 76 more yards from scrimmage, worth about five points (one for every 15 yards, on average). But the Chiefs get about three of those points back with the return yards on their two picks. Add it all up and the expectation is a Chiefs win by 11. They actually won by 14, close enough.
The Texans had a narrow edge in YPA and lost in overtime to the Jaguars -- tough break, but it makes sense. The Raiders and the Eagles lost because of red-zone efficiency. Net red zone possessions is a better indicator of strength generally. But what's true generally is often not true in a specific instance. The loss by the Rams, especially by 14 points, makes no sense statistically. But the Rams, rife with dissension, may have a loser's mentality now that stats can't measure.
Not all of our teams have played the same number of games. But with the exception of net red-zone possessions, our other key stats are averages - net YPA, net third-down percentage and net interception percentage. Why these stats? Because over many years of data they correlate to winning better than the others.
So our Key Stat Power Index has the Ravens, the Bills,the Eagles, the Giants and the Cardinals as the top five teams right now. The Cardinals are fumbling frequently on pass plays, courtesy of Kurt Warner's butter fingers, and thus are overrated by our index. I stand by the other four. Dallas, by the way, is eighth, but that's screwy because the Cowboys, unbelievably, have yet to pick off a pass and thus are 29th in net interception percentage. These types of oddities correct with more data.
Bottom five, worst first: Lions, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs and Texans. The Jets, at 2-2, are next worst and not in the top half in any of our stat categories, which should trouble their fans.
Buy
Earnest Graham, RB, Bucs: Tampa Bay has 18 red-zone possessions (third-most) and Graham hasn't gotten his fair share of cheapies yet. He's also showed surprising game-breaking speed. Warrick Dunn is stealing too many touches but is too old and will fade.
Ravens Pass Defense: I thought this unit would be human, but 4.13 yards allowed per pass make you stand up and salute. Only stars should be expected to produce even middling stats against them.
Hold
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: Have to downgrade him because he's been sacked 17 percent of dropbacks. This is the dark side of the otherwise wonderful Mike Martz passing offense.
Sell
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: He's also been sacked 17 percent of dropbacks. Until it gets cut in half like his average of past years, expect disappointing statistical returns and even injury.
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: He had 200 yards from scrimmage and scored last week. That's a selling window. The Rams get Marc Bulger back at QB but are a mess and have gotten the ball into the red zone three times all year.
Denver Broncos Defense: We knew they were bad against the pass, and then Larry Johnson turns the clock back to 2005 and puts up a near deuce against them. Their 6.6 yards allowed per play is barely better than the toothless Lions (6.8). Teams need to score a truckload of points, too, because the Broncos offense is so good (second best 6.6. yards per play behind Dallas, 6.8).
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