By Michael Salfino
Every team except the Ravens and the Texans has played three games, which seems trifling but is about 20 percent of the season.
Critical mass is building with key stats. We don't have full confidence until all clubs have at least four games in the books. But we're close enough now to highlight those that are likely significantly better or worse than forecasted in August.
Again, the most important stat in the NFL that you don't hear enough about (except here) is net yards per pass attempt (YPA), which factors in sacks. But this week, let's also examine net red-zone possessions for the first time in 2008.
Teams entered Week Three 27-4 when they had the higher YPA than their opponent. But this was about as bad a week as you'll ever see for YPA, with five teams with an edge here losing -- the Raiders, the Bears, the Cardinals, the Saints and the Jaguars. The Broncos, amazingly, have won two games in a row despite being out-YPA'ed. On a neutral field, there's about a 4-percent chance of that happening. At home, like the Broncos have been, the odds go up a bit, but not that much.
But still, 38-9 for the better passing teams is about exactly the .800 win percentage we'd expect based on historical YPA data.
When you finish a season plus-two yards, subtracting the YPA you gain from what you allow, you're a legitimate championship contender and just about guaranteed a ticket to the postseason dance. Eight teams currently make that cut, but Baltimore has played only two games, so we toss them out, leaving, in order, the Chargers, the 49ers, the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Bills, the Titans and the Cardinals. Early YPA returns say these teams are very likely to make the playoffs.
On the flip side, negative two yards or more means you can start thinking about the NFL Draft come Election Day. YPA laggards, in order, are the Browns, the Rams, the Lions, the Chiefs, the Texans (just two games) and the Jaguars. Jacksonville had to dominate all other facets to squeak out a win at Indy and, YPA says, remains very overrated.
Occam's Razor guides our stat analysis: The simplest solution is generally the best. All you really need is YPA. But net red-zone possessions is another great, simple team stat that gets overlooked. Not red-zone efficiency, which, while important, is overrated -- just how many times you get inside the 20 versus how many times you allow the opposition there. Net red-zone possession leaders are, in order, the Eagles, the Cardinals and the Giants (all plus-six or better). The Broncos are plus-four, which may explain their death-defying net-YPA.
Conversely, the Chargers are minus-five red-zone possessions, a check against their high-flying net-YPA. This red-zone stat also says to be wary of the Saints (minus-seven) and the Titans (minus-four). But in the early going, there's so much more YPA data, which factors in every pass. So defer to that now and, really, always.
Now let's make some related player recommendations.
Buy
Michael Pittman, RB, Broncos: Denver is living in the red zone with 15 possessions, and Pittman (four TDs) is the man near the goal line.
Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: Arizona has 13 red-zone possessions and this is a good time to get Hightower, as he didn't score in Week 3.
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Forget about 2007 and buy, buy, buy. He's No. 1 in YPA. No one could have foreseen LaDainian Tomlinson's turf toe and the loss of Shawne Merriman crippling their pass defense back in August. But this is the new reality.
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: This year's Derek Anderson. Smash through the buying window if you must.
Hold
Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Strictly a numbers play here. The Jets have been in the red zone 12 times. So Jones should get more than his fair share of easy scoring opportunities. I'm skeptical of his ability to convert.
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Give him two more weeks. Schaub's had a very tough schedule (at Pittsburgh, at Tennessee and at Jacksonville this week). He doesn't get his first home game until Week 5 (Colts). Two of his picks last week were late, desperation throws. But you'd better have a Plan B.
Sell
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: Just two red-zone possessions in three weeks for the Rams, whose bad defense and rotten offensive line create a terrible setup for Jackson and owners who bought his talent while ignoring his environment.
Rudi Johnson, RB, Lions: The Lions bailed on Kevin Smith very fast, but big changes are brewing in Detroit if the owner listens to his son. Johnson's solid Week 3 was a garbage-time fluke.
Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Be a trader if he manages to save his job this week against the Bengals. The preseason price seemed fair because of the good setup (stud receivers; lousy defense; old, broken-down runner). But backup QBs like former No. 1 pick Brady Quinn are popular enough to run for mayor in towns with lousy teams.
Email
New comments
New photos
Authors
New posts
Projo blogs
Archives
Leave a comment