11:42 AM Tue, Sep 16, 2008 | Permalink
Mike McDermott  Email
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By Michael Salfino
Extensive analysis of NFL statistics over many seasons reveals that to maximize the chance to win, a team should strive to pass the ball more efficiently. So far this season, teams that average more yards per pass than their opponent, factoring in sack yards, are 27-4.
This week, the only outliers - teams victorious despite losing the passing battle -- were the Panthers and the Broncos. The Panthers lost it by a tenth of a yard in a game that was pretty much dead even: a 20-17 win over the Bears. And the Broncos were bailed out by two horrendous calls that replay couldn't fix - one because of equipment failure.
Of course it's early; so the usual caveats apply. But in the NFL, it's always later than you think. After this week, most teams will have played about 20 percent of their season slates.
So if out-passing your opponent is important enough for it to correlate to winning this year to that degree (87 percent of the time, a little high, as most years it's about 80 percent), than we should be able to use it to rank the best (and worst) teams.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. We don't know if these teams will continue to excel and struggle in the passing game to the degree they have. But if they do, the results as measured by wins and losses will surely follow.
Your net-YPA (yards per pass attempt) leaders are the Cowboys, the Bills, the Niners (who really whipped the Seahawks here on Sunday), the Chargers and the Packers.
Four of those teams have combined for the 7-1 record we'd expect. But San Diego is the unluckiest 0-2 ever. A reckoning is coming, soon. I wouldn't want to be the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Qualcomm Stadium to face a team that's not only good but very likely furiously angry after giving away a game on the final play and having another one stolen by the aforementioned officiating gaffes.
Looking at the bottom of the net-YPA barrel, there are some big surprises, especially if you thought the Vikings were going to be the division winner most predicted. They are 26th in the stat and fully deserve their 0-2 record. I'm surprised that Jacksonville is 28th because I like David Garrard as a player. However, the Jaguars' offensive line has been decimated and their pass protection has suffered (nine sacks). The Browns (30th) were expected by many to build on their 2007 success, but they are yielding an unconscionable 9.49 YPA, even though Sunday night's game was played in 40 mile per hour winds.
Of the 2-0 teams, the worst in net-YPA is the Broncos (20th), though that's mostly the Chargers game. Of course, their other game was against the Raiders, who threw for 55 yards on 17 attempts versus the Chiefs last week -- just one completion to a wideout.
Phil Simms recently noted the feeling around the league is that defensive backs are now so athletic that they are generally able to win matchups against most receivers. But there's no evidence of that, as the league YPA is 6.55, slightly higher than the previous few seasons.
Now let's make some related recommendations.
Buy
Lee Evans, WR, Bills: The touchdowns are coming. Evans just missed one on a textbook post-corner pattern for a long gain at Jacksonville. QB Trent Edwards is very accurate and there's no better deep threat in the game than Evans.
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: Mike Martz developed Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, who were similarly overlooked before hooking up with him in his mad passing laboratory. O'Sullivan showed toughness, improvisational ability and great pocket awareness in the comeback win at Seattle.
Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: Made due against the tough Cowboys without his starting wideouts (soon to return), showing vintage schoolyard escapability when seemingly wrapped up by multiple defenders. Accuracy will always be an issue, especially on easy throws.
Niners pass defense: They're ninth in YPA allowed despite facing Matt Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner. The former was without his top three wideouts, but Warner was fully loaded in Week 1 and reasonably contained.
Hold
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: He's thrived against the Vikings fearsome front four and then had a road comeback win when he had to fire up the idling engines after disaster struck. He's got the entire package.
Chris Chambers, WR, Chargers: Philip Rivers looked like the star he was becoming his first year as a starter, not the disappointing '07 variety. Chambers is very talented but slides under the defensive radar given the other stars beside him (Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson).
Sell
Chad Ocho Cinco, WR, Bengals: Yes, the wind was fierce on Sunday. But the former Johnson is a boom-or-bust type and it looks like the boom days are over with the Bengals, now last in YPA and continuing a steady offensive decline from early 2007.
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