10:41 AM Tue, Sep 09, 2008 | Permalink
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By Michael Salfino
The official departure of Tom Brady from the 2008 season completely changes the NFL landscape and raises questions about the value of a quarterback of Brady's caliber and the challenges faced by a backup stepping into the starting spotlight for the first time since high school.
There are two jobs for which no prior experience can qualify you: President of the United States and starting NFL QB. They are sui generis, meaning the only examples of their kind.
No position in sports is remotely as important as quarterback in football. Consider that the teams that averaged more yards per pass than their opponent were 14-2 in Week 1. Usually, winning that stat gets you the game about 80 percent of the time.
The Patriots are not the first team with Super Bowl aspirations to lose their leader early.
In 1999, Vinny Testaverde's season ended to a torn Achilles when pivoting for a handoff to Curtis Martin in the opener versus the Patriots. The Jets finished 8-8, but were a very dangerous team after abandoning backup Rick Mirer in favor of hybrid wide receiver Ray Lucas.
Back in 1991, Randall Cunningham tore his ACL Week 1 at Green Bay, was replaced by Super Bowl veteran Jim McMahon, and the Eagles finished with the same 10-6 record as the prior year mostly due to a playmaking defense.
More relevant to the New England situation, I think, is Dan Marino's torn Achilles in 1993 in Cleveland. The Dolphins were 4-1 with him but lost six of 11 games with Scott Mitchell and Steve DeBerg under center and at opposite ends of the experience spectrum.
Marino's injury that year reasonably cost the Dolphins three wins over those last 11 weeks. Over the next 15 games, the Patriots very likely will pay at least that high a price and probably closer to five games.
"But the Patriots were 16-0 last year," you say. Yes, but regression to the mean says they were likely to be 13-3 or so this year with Brady, considering their losses on defense and age there. Let's call it a four-game deficit and predict the Patriots will finish 2008 at 9-7, sans Brady.
The Patriots faithful should consider that the Vikings might be the best team in football excluding QB, but will be lucky to finish 9-7 due to deficiencies there.
The 1990 Giants? Phil Simms went out that year in Week 15. The 1999 Rams? Kurt Warner replaced the injured Trent Green in the preseason and led a record-shattering offense to a Super Bowl trophy and league MVP honors. I'd say he started as a senior in college and for two years in the Arena Football League. But no one remotely saw that one coming.
Maybe Pats backup Matt Cassel is Warner or even Brady, who famously replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe, and the Patriots won the Super Bowl anyway. But Bledoe was far from an elite player then.
Heck, maybe the Patriots are so much smarter than everyone else that they can just replace Lou Gehrig with another Lou Gehrig. Cassel has a strong arm; Phil Simms said yesterday that watching him throw you wonder how he never earned a starting gig at USC. But arm strength is far down the list of essential QB qualities.
Now let's continue the New England theme into the recommendations.
Buy
Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets: Like Hines Ward, a possible No. 1 receiver overshadowed by a more sporty teammate (Jerricho Cotchery for him, Santonio Holmes for Ward). Coles is hobbling now and undervalued by most after an injury-plagued 2007 and summer.
Earnest Graham, RB, Bucs: Jon Gruden said yesterday he blew it by not giving the ball more to Graham (10 carries, 91 yards). He promised to correct that going forward. Graham also gets goal-line action.
Bills defense/Special Teams: There are multiple playmakers here in the return game and Roscoe Parrish, the best of them, is poised for a Devin Hester 2007/Dante Hall 2003-type of season.
Hold
Vikings run defense: The Packers had four cracks inside the Vikings' one and had no chance on any of them. Later, they wisely spread the Vikes out via formation and found a crack on a QB sneak. League, take note.
Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots: If it wasn't the Patriots betting on him, I'd say, "No chance." Still, a huge long-shot to produce enough to even keep the job in favor of some currently unrostered veteran.
Sell
Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: He'll have more chances to beat coverage as teams blitz Cassel early and often. But if Cassel doesn't prove to be a quick thinker, the Patriots will keep more guys in to block, meaning less receivers and doubling Moss even on blitzes.
Jaguars offense: Both starting guards are out, possibly for the year. And starting center Brad Meester remains sidelined until October, at least. No wonder David Garrard was sacked seven times in Jacksonville.
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I'm not sure I would sell so quickly on Randy Ross. Cassel may fall in love with him. Check out our NFL Notes at http://simplesportsnow.com. Thanks.
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