3:31 PM Wed, Sep 24, 2008 | Permalink
Mike McDermott  Email
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By Michael Salfino
Last year at this time, we predicted that a number of 2007's most fortunate few would have their organizations scratching their heads in 2008.
Let's first look at how we did on those predictions before stepping back into the batter's box and acting like the apocryphal Babe Ruth as we point our finger to 2009 and try to call our shot with the luckiest hitters due for a fall.
Last week, we noted how a solid majority of players (more than 70 percent) perform worse each year than the prior year. I know it defies our mathematical sense given that statistics are basically static from year to year. But you have to remember that the really good players almost always get worse and the ones who weren't so good often are out of the league or, if they keep their jobs, at least not significantly better. And, of course, there are a fair number of new players each year.
This insight informed my grading on last week's unlucky players, making it more curvy. Five hits and two misses in predicting players to significantly improve is much better than it seems to those who don't know that most players decline.
Now the wind is at our back, not in our face. So the expectations for accuracy should be greater.
We predicted that Magglio Ordonez would hit about .310, not .425, with runners in scoring position (RISP), and that his balls in play (BIP) average would be about average for him (.320). Those numbers are .338 and .311, respectively. Let's call that a single on a batting practice fastball.
Carlos Pena was predicted to hit homers on 20 percent of fly balls, not the 29 percent of 2007. That means we expected 28 homers, not 46. He's hit 31 with a homer rate of about 19 percent. He has hit significantly more fly balls, but that's still a ringing double.
We keep the rally going with B.J. Upton and Mike Lowell. Upton hit about .400 last year on balls in play, which we predicted would be closer to .300 (it is, barely, now at .347). We also said the homer rate would decline from about 20 percent of fly balls, and it did, to an unlucky 6.8 percent. Lowell's .356 with RISP was deemed a joke in '07. This year, predictably, it was .288. Goodbye, RBI.
Our first whiff was Oliver Perez when we went off the stat reservation and looked at unearned runs, which obviously are unearned for a reason. The predicted increase in ERA never materialized.
For Fausto Carmona, we predicted a significantly higher BIP allowed, given his groundball tendencies. While his ERA soared, it was more for a significantly worse K/BB ratio. So we were right for the wrong reason, which is, at best, a long foul ball.
But we plate some runs with Brad Penny and Mark Buehrle. Though Penny was hurt, his homer rate well more than doubled, as we predicted. And Buehrle, who stranded 76 percent of base runners in '07, crashed back right to average, as forecasted (70 percent, which means lots more runs).
I feel like Scrooge laughing over the coal in everyone's Christmas stockings. And all these calls seem so obvious in hindsight. But we at least don't miss the easy stuff. Let's pick some more low-hanging fruit with lucky hitters to avoid in '09.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: He's at .413 with RISP (.252 last year). Maybe he found the Fountain of Clutch. I'm less confident that his BIP average will regress, because Kinsler's line-drive rate of 24 percent is 10th best.
Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals: Even if we stipulate his power as real, he had the lowest percentage of grounders in the game, yet still hit .337 on BIP. If you take out homers, only about 11 percent of fly balls are hits. Of the 12 guys with the fewest grounders, only two are well above average on BIP: Ludwick and Kinsler.
Jason Bay, OF, Red Sox: Fenway is a magic elixir for hitters. But predicted OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), which looks at where balls are hit, says Bay's Red Sox number should be .791, not .919.
Felipe Lopez, 2B, Cardinals: We're reaching for partial-year players because there just weren't that many lucky hitters this year, given scoring is down about 4 percent. Lopez should have registered a .731 OPS for the Cardinals, not .889.
Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox: Pick your reason. The rate of homers on fly balls has about doubled. His.368 with RISP makes him this year's Lowell.
Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: There's not the uptick in line-drive rate we'd expect with such a surge in average on BIP (.346). He seems unlucky in homer rate, but more than makes up for it with average with RISP (.346). His predicted OPS is merely a solid .926, not the sterling .998 actual.
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Jason Bay's lifetime OPS is .899, so why would any idiot predict .701.
You make zero sense. Bay got that .899 playing in cavrenous PNC Park. His numbers at Fenway will be much higher, playing there an entire season and adjusting to AL pitching.
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