Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Luck is a different kind of four-letter word in baseball.

I'm not addressing it here in any way to diminish the almost god-like ability of all major league players. They're in the 99.9th percentile of baseball skill. I understand that if I saw the players who I consider to be baseball's worst at my local sandlot, their talent would make my jaw drop, that's how unreal it would seem to all of us mere baseball mortals.

But, once you get to the show, it's all relative. Sometimes we think that players have extreme years relative to career numbers or scouting projections because of significant changes in their ability or dedication. But I'm convinced it's mostly random.

One of my favorite books this year is "A Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives," by physicist Leonard Mlodinow - a big baseball fan. I noted in June how Mlodinow's worldview developed as a result of Roger Maris' outlying 1961 season, when he hit 61 homers to break Babe Ruth's single-season record. Mlodinow's point is that any random guy with plus-big league power has about a 3-percent chance of hitting 60-plus homers in a Strat-O-Matic sense. So over the course of many years of baseball history, someone was certain to eventually do this randomly. That person just happened to be 1961 Roger Maris.

Can anyone quarrel with the notion that at least a handful of the nearly 700 major league players (plus the many who shuffled on and off rosters) are certain to have been extremely lucky or unlucky in '08? In other words, their performance increases or declines can be attributed almost entirely to random chance.

There weren't any 1961 Marises this year. That's historic when it happens - just not for the reasons most of us think. But let's try to find those pitchers who were most unlucky, according to stats that I believe best isolate luck: average against on balls in play (BIP), percentage of baserunners stranded and rate of home runs on all fly balls allowed.

Next week, lucky pitchers. Then we close out the season with unlucky and lucky hitters, using some different metrics. Let's do away with the recommendations this week, though all of these guys would theoretically (Carlos Silva hedge) be "Buys" for 2009, assuming they have jobs - the major challenge for unlucky guys seeking a comeback. Baseball managers and executives generally refuse to accept the influence of chance because they'd rather believe in the supremacy of talent and their ability to control the fate of their teams (and their careers) by first identifying and then nurturing it.

Also, we're focusing on qualifying starters because sample sizes with relievers are too small. Thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for the data.

Carlos Silva, Mariners: No amount of better luck would make him worth his $48-million contract. But, in fairness, he's been victimized by a very high BIP (average on balls in play) rate (.339, average is about .300). And 39 percent of his baserunners have scored (average is 30 percent). Even with average luck, though, his ERA would still be near 5.00.

Nate Robertson, Tigers: Here's a guy I'd try to get cheap next year. The league's hitting .346 on BIP, two years ago versus him, .277. Of course, that's decreased his Left on Base (LOB) percentage - 34 percent have scored this year; 29 percent in '07.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: He wasn't lucky on BIP last year (.304), but his .319 there hurts more in '08 because 13 percent of his fly balls allowed are homers, versus 9.7 percent in '07. Why do we think this is the pitcher's fault? Don't the hitters determine outcomes, too?

Ian Snell, Pirates: BIP averages since 2006: .314, .308 and .358 this year. I understand the Pirates' defense is bad, but there's a lot of bad luck here, too.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: Our friends at HardballTimes.com say his ERA this year with average luck/defense would be almost a full run lower than actual. Use that as your '09 baseline.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds: His left on base (LOB) percentage is OK. But the BIP (.318) and especially the rate of homers on fly balls (15.5 percent, average this year is 11.5) are extreme. You can blame him and/or the park, but Arroyo's rate was about 11 percent the last two years combined.

Aaron Harang, Reds: Similar to Arroyo: 15.8 percent of fly balls are homers this year. Prior three years: 9.4, 11.7, 10.6 percent.

Roy Oswalt, Astros: Getting killed by a homer rate (15 percent) nearly double what it was in preceding years. If he's easier to hit, why are the strikeouts up (7.3/9 innings)?

Justin Verlander, Tigers: We think intestinal fortitude allows pitchers to excel with runners on base. But I believe Verlander's all-time-low line drive rate proves an unfair number of bleeders and bloops are driving home 35 percent of baserunners (25 percent last year).

 Tags  Aaron Harang baseball Baseball by the Numbers Bronson Arroyo Carlos Silva Ian Snell Jonathan Sanchez Josh Beckett Justin Verlander Michael Salfino Nate Robertson Roy Oswalt

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