Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Tomorrow's championship run begins with the foundation we start laying today. Let's give one last look at 2008 and see what we can apply for next year.

Pitchers

BUY

Frank Francisco, RP, Rangers: He got the closing gig in late August when Eddie Guardado was traded, and it was a perfect fit immediately (10 scoreless innings, four walks, 17 strikeouts, five saves). Short-sighted owners skipped Francisco a month ago because of his series of blown saves in middle relief, but working out of a midgame jam is a trickier assignment than pitching the ninth inning with no one on base. Francisco should be one of the cheaper save-grabbers on the market next spring, and that's always an angle we'll be looking to cash in with.

SELL

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, free agent: The key here is not to be overwhelmed by the save total; it's an impressive feat, but it speaks for the constant opportunities the Angels gave Rodriguez, not how well he pitched. K-Rod's had at least two or three better seasons himself, and if you examine all of the AL's closers for 2008 and skip over the save counts, Rodriguez will not grade out on top (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Joakim Soria stand ahead of him). Bottom line, Rodriguez will be handsomely paid by a major-league club this winter and by fantasy owners next spring, but the sharp play is to find saves on a budget, not to write a fat check and pay retail.

Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: It's been a fun story and we like him to be a productive member of the Oakland bullpen for years to come, but his sinker and ground-ball dominance are better suited for a non-closing gig going forward. The competition for the ninth inning by the bay figures to be fierce: Huston Street wants his job back, and Joey Devine was utterly dominant (despite injuries) in his Oakland debut.

HOLD

Cliff Lee, SP, Indians: Career years should be taken with a skeptical tack, there's no doubt about that, but Lee's breakthrough season probably was more real than conventional wisdom accepts. A tightened delivery and improved control led to the massive walk drop, and he's starting to get "reputation calls" when he paints the corner. Lee's home-run luck probably won't carry over to 2009 - only 5 percent of his fly balls left the park this year, unsustainable - but that's the only rabbit's foot we see on the resume. The league hit .305 against Lee on balls in play, essentially the league average. If the rest of the room refuses to buy in for Lee's encore season, go ahead and pay for 16 wins, 175 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid-3s. It's going to come cheaper than you might expect.

Batters

BUY

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Don't write him off as just another injury-plagued third sacker; you'll miss the snappy way Blalock finished 2008 (.327, seven homers over the last month). Arlington is an ideal hitting environment for a left-handed power hitter, and Blalock also offers first-base eligibility into the new season (he split his time between the two spots this summer).

SELL

Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: At quick glance there appears to be value here: a .270 average, 10 homers and 54 RBIs is respectable at the position. But things get ugly if you look a level deeper: a .238 average against right-handed pitching; a 162-point drop in OPS; a puny .380 slugging percentage; five fewer steals from the previous year. Renteria turns 34 next summer, but his bat speed is aging at a quicker rate. There's major collapse risk with this stock.

HOLD

Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: He hit lefties and righties, he raked at home and on the road, and he produced very consistent numbers every month following his June promotion. Aviles was also sharp in the field, further solidifying his hold on the position. The mediocre fantasy owner will want to discount Aviles strictly because of unfamiliarity, but this surprising breakout holds up when you look under the hood.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: Some injuries and less aggressiveness on the bases masked what was arguably a growth season; don't overlook the significant progress Granderson made against left-handed pitching (where he jumped 104 points). He'll go back to making us very content in all five categories again next spring, and probably at a modest discount. We haven't seen Granderson's best haul yet.

 Tags  AL Stock Watch baseball Brad Ziegler Cliff Lee Curtis Granderson David Ferris Edgar Renteria Francisco Rodriguez Frank Francisco Hank Blalock Mike Aviles

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