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September 28, 2008 - October 4, 2008 Archives
11:38 AM Sat, Oct 04, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Chad Lawton
Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every
10 rushing/receiving yards).
Next Update: 10/8
* = check status
Quarterback
1. Drew Brees, NO vs. MIN
2. Tony Romo, DAL vs. CIN
3. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. TB
4. Peyton Manning, IND at HOU
5. Philip Rivers, SD at MIA
6. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. WAS
7. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. BUF
8. Eli Manning, NYG vs. SEA
9. Brian Griese, TB at DEN
10. Jason Campbell, WAS at PHI
NOTE: Hasn't turned the ball over yet.
11. Jon Kitna, DET vs. CHI
12. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. IND
NOTE: Got back into swing at Jacksonville.
13. Trent Edwards, BUF at ARI
14. Kyle Orton, CHI at DET
NOTE: It's a matchup-driven rank.
15. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. KC
16. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. NE
17. Chad Pennington, MIA vs. SD
18. *Carson Palmer, CIN at DAL
NOTE: Good session Friday but not a safe play.
19. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at NYG
NOTE: Wait a week or two for vets to get healthy.
20. David Garrard, JAC vs. PIT
21. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at JAC
NOTE: Shoulder isn't right at the moment.
22. *Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. ATL
NOTE: Very iffy (shoulder), look elsewhere.
23. Matt Cassel, NE at SF
NOTE: How much did they coach him up during bye?
24. Gus Frerotte, MIN at NO
25. Matt Ryan, ATL at GB
26. Damon Huard, KC at CAR
27. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. TEN
28. Kerry Collins, TEN at BAL
Running Back
1. Marion Barber, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Don't sweat last week's data.
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN at NO
3. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at MIA
4. Matt Forte, CHI at DET
NOTE: Every-down back, every-week back.
5. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at ARI
NOTE: Bills never stray from foundation of offense.
6. Joseph Addai, IND at HOU
7. Frank Gore, SF vs. NE
8. Earnest Graham, TB at DEN
9. Michael Turner, ATL at GB
10. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. IND
NOTE: Used creatively in pass game.
11. Clinton Portis, WAS at PHI
12. *Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. WAS
NOTE: Had a full session Friday.
13. Larry Johnson, KC at CAR
14. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. KC
NOTE: He'll gash this front seven.
15. Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. SEA
16. Ronnie Brown, MIA vs. SD
17. Ryan Grant, GB vs. ATL
NOTE: Might be needed more with Rodgers ailing.
18. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. BUF
19. Chris Johnson, TEN at BAL
20. Reggie Bush, NO vs. MIN
21. Rudi Johnson, DET vs. CHI
22. *Mewelde Moore, PIT at JAC
NOTE: Needed with three others hurt.
23. *LeRon McClain, BAL vs. TEN
24. Julius Jones, SEA at NYG
25. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. PIT
26. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. KC
27. Selvin Young, DEN vs. TB
28. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. TEN
NOTE: McClain is healthier, more useful right now.
29. Deuce McAllister, NO vs. MIN
30. *Correll Buckhalter, PHI vs. WAS
31. Jerious Norwood, ATL at GB
32. Warrick Dunn, TB at DEN
33. Felix Jones, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Look for him in the third and fourth quarter.
34. *Chris Perry, CIN at DAL
35. Michael Pittman, DEN vs. TB
36. Laurence Maroney, NE at SF
NOTE: Impossible to trust at this point.
37. LenDale White, TEN at BAL
NOTE: Does his best work at the 1-yard line.
38. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. ATL
39. Sammy Morris, NE at SF
40. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. PIT
41. Tim Hightower, ARI vs. BUF
42. Derrick Ward, NYG vs. SEA
43. Ricky Williams, MIA vs. SD
NOTE: Brown should take job and run with it.
44. Kevin Smith, DET vs. CHI
45. Darren Sproles, SD at MIA
46. Chester Taylor, MIN at NO
47. Fred Jackson, BUF at ARI
NOTE: Must-have for Lynch owners.
48. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. SEA
49. T.J. Duckett, SEA at NYG
50. Chris Taylor, HOU vs. IND
51. Kevin Jones, CHI at DET
52. Dominic Rhodes, IND at HOU
53. Andre Hall, DEN vs. TB
54. Ladell Betts, WAS at PHI
55. Kevin Faulk, NE at SF
56. Ray Rice, BAL vs. TEN
NOTE: Buried on the depth chart.
Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. TB
2. Reggie Wayne, IND at HOU
3. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: For all his bitching, they're using him.
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. BUF
5. Calvin Johnson, DET vs. CHI
6. Lee Evans, BUF at ARI
NOTE: A secondary you can get deep on.
7. Steve Smith, CAR vs. KC
NOTE: Still electric with the yards after catch.
8. Santana Moss, WAS at PHI
9. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. IND
NOTE: Too early to bail on him.
10. Roddy White, ATL at GB
NOTE: Good play against injured secondary.
11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at DAL
NOTE: Palmer likely to go, big relief.
12. Chris Chambers, SD at MIA
13. Santonio Holmes, PIT at JAC
14. Randy Moss, NE at SF
NOTE: This week will define his season.
15. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. TB
16. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. WAS
17. Roy Williams, DET vs. CHI
18. Dwayne Bowe, KC at CAR
19. Lance Moore, NO vs. MIN
NOTE: Knows the offense, trusted by Brees.
20. Greg Jennings, GB vs. ATL
NOTE: Bump him down with Rodgers news.
21. Vincent Jackson, SD at MIA
22. Hines Ward, PIT at JAC
23. Steve Breaston, ARI vs. BUF
NOTE: Steps in for injured Boldin.
24. Wes Welker, NE at SF
25. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. WAS
26. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. TEN
27. Anthony Gonzalez, IND at HOU
28. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. IND
NOTE: One of the better No. 2s around.
29. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. SEA
30. Robert Meachem, NO vs. MIN
31. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. NE
32. Antonio Bryant, TB at DEN
33. Matt Jones, JAC vs. PIT
34. Greg Camarillo, MIA vs. SD
35. Josh Reed, BUF at ARI
36. Marvin Harrison, IND at HOU
NOTE: Name-brand value is long gone.
37. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. KC
38. *Deion Branch, SEA at NYG
39. Chad Johnson, CIN at DAL
40. Donald Driver, GB vs. ATL
41. Ted Ginn, MIA vs. SD
42. *Bobby Engram, SEA at NYG
NOTE: He'll play, but for how long?
43. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at PHI
44. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Got involved more last week.
45. Domenik Hixon, NYG vs. SEA
46. Steve Smith, NYG vs. SEA
47. Ike Hilliard, TB at DEN
48. Devery Henderson, NO vs. MIN
NOTE: Might get deep for one big play.
49. Michael Clayton, TB at DEN
NOTE: Time to walk out of this movie.
50. Michael Jenkins, ATL at GB
51. Arnaz Battle, SF vs. NE
NOTE: Starting to pick up offense and produce.
52. Miles Austin, DAL vs. CIN
53. Justin McCareins, TEN at BAL
54. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. TB
55. *Sidney Rice, MIN at NO
56. Antonio Chatman, CIN at DAL
57. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. PIT
58. *Bryant Johnson, SF vs. NE
59. Rashied Davis, CHI at DET
60. Jordy Nelson, GB vs. ATL
61. Bobby Wade, MIN at NO
62. Billy McMullen, SEA at NYG
63. Craig Davis, SD at MIA
64. *Marty Booker, CHI at DET
65. James Hardy, BUF at ARI
66. *Bernard Berrian, MIN at NO
NOTE: Balky knee, questionable.
67. Nate Washington, PIT at JAC
68. Jabar Gaffney, NE at SF
NOTE: He'll see 5-7 targets a week.
69. James Thrash, WAS at PHI
70. Jerheme Urban, ARI vs. BUF
71. Brandon Jones, TEN at BAL
72. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. KC
73. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. WAS
74. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. TEN
NOTE: He's regressed since rookie year.
75. *Justin Gage, TEN at BAL
NOTE: Not expected to go.
76. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI at DET
NOTE: He's out for another week.
77. *David Patten, NO vs. MIN
NOTE: Still out with groin problem; get Moore or Meachem.
Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. CIN
2. *Antonio Gates, SD at MIA
3. Tony Gonzalez, KC at CAR
4. Anthony Fasano, MIA vs. SD
5. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. IND
6. Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. TB
7. Chris Cooley, WAS at PHI
NOTE: At least we know he studies the playbook.
8. Dallas Clark, IND at HOU
9. John Carlson, SEA at NYG
NOTE: Should get 4-5 grabs here.
10. Heath Miller, PIT at JAC
11. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at NO
12. Donald Lee, GB vs. ATL
13. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. SEA
14. Billy Miller, NO vs. MIN
15. Greg Olsen, CHI at DET
NOTE: Physical gifts starting to show.
16. David Martin, MIA vs. SD
17. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. KC
18. Vernon Davis, SF vs. NE
19. Delanie Walker, SF vs. NE
20. Bo Scaife, TEN at BAL
21. Ben Watson, NE at SF
22. Todd Heap, BAL vs. TEN
23. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. PIT
24. Alex Smith, TB at DEN
25. *L.J. Smith, PHI vs. WAS
26. Robert Royal, BUF at ARI
27. Reggie Kelly, CIN at DAL
28. Desmond Clark, CHI at DET
29. Jerramy Stevens, TB at DEN
Kicker
1. Nick Folk, DAL vs. CIN
2. Nate Kaeding, SD at MIA
3. Mason Crosby, GB vs. ATL
4. Matt Prater, DEN vs. TB
NOTE: This year's charmed-life kicker.
5. Adam Vinatieri, IND at HOU
6. *Carney/Tynes, NYG vs. SEA
NOTE: Check for confirmed starter on Sunday.
7. John Kasay, CAR vs. KC
8. Robbie Gould, CHI at DET
9. David Akers, PHI vs. WAS
NOTE: Long leg, but somewhat erratic.
10. Rian Lindell, BUF at ARI
11. Neil Rackers, ARI vs. BUF
12. Rob Bironas, TEN at BAL
13. Matt Bryant, TB at DEN
NOTE: The hero of Week 4.
14. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. MIN
15. Ryan Longwell, MIN at NO
16. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. PIT
17. Stephen Gostkowski, NE at SF
18. Shaun Suisham, WAS at PHI
19. Jeff Reed, PIT at JAC
20. Matt Stover, BAL vs. TEN
21. Joe Nedney, SF vs. NE
22. Kris Brown, HOU vs. IND
23. Jason Hanson, DET vs. CHI
24. Olindo Mare, SEA at NYG
25. Jason Elam, ATL at GB
26. Dan Carpenter, MIA vs. SD
27. Nick Novak, KC at CAR
28. Shayne Graham, CIN at DAL
Defense
1. Dallas vs. Cincinnati
NOTE: Gang up on struggling O-line.
2. New York Giants vs. Seattle
3. Tennessee at Baltimore
4. Chicago at Detroit
5. Carolina vs. Kansas City
6. Baltimore vs. Tennessee
7. Green Bay vs. Atlanta
8. Philadelphia vs. Washington
NOTE: Jim Johnson will beat your blocking scheme.
9. Buffalo at Arizona
10. New England at San Francisco
11. San Diego at Miami
12. Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
13. Jacksonville vs. Pittsburgh
NOTE: What happened to the pass rush?
14. Arizona vs. Buffalo
15. Indianapolis at Houston
16. Washington at Philadelphia
17. Minnesota at New Orleans
NOTE: Another example of a buzz defense gone bad.
18. Seattle at New York Giants
19. Atlanta at Green Bay
20. Detroit vs. Chicago
21. New Orleans vs. Minnesota
22. Denver vs. Tampa Bay
23. Tampa Bay at Denver
24. Houston vs. Indianapolis
25. Miami vs. San Diego
26. San Francisco at New Orleans
27. Kansas City at Carolina
28. Cincinnati at Dallas
11:30 AM Sat, Oct 04, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Rob Steingall
Quarterbacks
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (right shoulder) was held out of practice until Friday, where he returned only on a limited basis. He is questionable for the game against the Jaguars on Sunday night. Coach Mike Tomlin expects him to play, but he's a risky start considering the Sunday night kickoff.
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (chest) was limited in practice Wednesday, but practiced fully Thursday and Friday. He's listed as probable and will start against the Redskins.
Bengals QB Carson Palmer (right elbow) is listed as questionable after steadily increasing his practice reps all week to a full day on Friday. Coach Marvin Lewis stated Friday that "all systems are go" with Palmer this weekend against the Cowboys.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (right shoulder) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice Wednesday and Friday, and was held out completely on Thursday. Rodgers' teammates expect him to play, but the final decision won't be made until Sunday morning. Matt Flynn should get the start against the Falcons if Rodgers is unable to go.
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme (thigh) practiced fully all week and is listed as probable for his team's game with the Chiefs.
Titans QB Vince Young (knee) is probable after returning to practice this week, although Kerry Collins will once again start in Week 5 and as long as the Titans are winning.
Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle (right shoulder) is listed as out for Sunday, allowing veteran Damon Huard to start against the Panthers, good news for Larry Johnson owners.
Running Backs
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday, while taking all the reps in practice on Friday. He'll be in uniform in Week 5, but should see a decrease in his workload. Correll Buckhalter will once again be a vital part of the Eagles' ground attack against the Redskins.
Ravens RB Willis McGahee (chest) was limited in practice all week and is questionable. ESPN's John Clayton stated that McGahee didn't practice well at all, while the Ravens have hinted that he'll be active. Le'Ron McClain keeps plowing defenders at 260 pounds and could see even more work if this injury lingers for McGahee.
Steelers RB Willie Parker (knee) is out once again in Week 5, as is rookie Rashard Mendenhall, who was placed on injured reserve after fracturing his shoulder last weekend. Mewelde Moore looks to be the featured back against the Jaguars.
Bengals RB Chris Perry (hamstring) is listed as probable, while teammate Kenny Watson (hamstring) is questionable. Perry practiced fully toward the end of the week, and will make the start against the Cowboys. Things are not as good for Watson, who was held out of practice through Thursday, and was limited on Friday. The Bengals also signed former Bear Cedric Benson this week.
Seahawks RB Maurice Morris (knee) is questionable after being limited in practice all week. Morris won't be anything more than the third back if he plays against the Giants, as Julius Jones and TJ Duckett will continue to see the carries.
Titans RB LenDale White (shoulder) is listed as probable after not practicing Wednesday and Thursday, but putting in a full workout Friday. Chris Johnson will continue to be the primary ball carrier, while White spells him and gets the goal line touches.
Wide Receivers
Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (head) is out after suffering a gruesome hit at the end of last weekend's contest with the Jets. He recently underwent surgery to repair the sinus fracture he suffered, and hopes to play next weekend. Look for Steve Breaston to pick up his targets against the Bills.
Lions WR Roy Williams (knee, probable) was held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, but practiced fully on Friday.
Seahawks WR Deion Branch (knee) and teammate Bobby Engram (shoulder) both practiced fully all week and will make their season debuts against the Giants on Sunday.
Steelers WR Santonio Holmes (neck) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and is listed as probable.
Bears WR Brandon Lloyd (knee) is out while teammate Marty Booker (knee) is listed as questionable. Look for Rashied Davis and Devin Hester to get more looks if Booker is limited or held out.
Vikings WR Bernard Berrian (knee) and teammate Sidney Rice (knee) are listed as questionable, with Berrian being a late add after being injured in practice on Thursday. Berrian was "clearly hobbled" during Friday's practice, while Rice continued to prepare for the start on Monday night. Bobby Wade will see increased work if Berrian is held out against the Saints.
Titans WR Justin Gage (knee) didn't practice and won't play until after the Titans' Week 6 bye.
Broncos WR Eddie Royal (ankle) is listed as probable after practicing fully this week.
Saints WR Marques Colston (thumb) is once again out this weekend.
Eagles WR Kevin Curtis (hernia) was limited in practice this week, and is listed as doubtful.
Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway (foot) is once again out this week after not practicing.
Other Positions
Chargers TE Antonio Gates (hip, probable) was held out of practice Wednesday before practicing fully Thursday and Friday.
Cowboys TE Jason Witten (shoulder, probable) practiced fully all week.
Saints TE Jeremy Shockey (hernia) is out for another month as he continues to recovery from surgery.
Eagles TE L.J. Smith (back) is listed as questionable after practicing fully all week.
Giants K Lawrence Tynes (left knee) is probable, but coach Tom Coughlin hasn't stated if he or John Carney will handle the kicking duties. Why? Maybe he's just screwing with us fantasy folks.
2:23 PM Thu, Oct 02, 2008 | Permalink |
By Mike McDermott Email
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By Mark P. Stopa
With the NFL season four weeks over, it's time to put aside your preseason predictions and take a fresh look at things. Now that we know which teams are better than expected (Redskins, Bills, Titans) and which are worse (Browns, Rams, Bengals), it's important to keep remaining schedules in mind as you decide which players to target and which to avoid in waivers and trades. Considering that, here are my recommendations as we head into Week 5.
Upgrades
Matt Forte, RB, Bears: I really like Forte the rest of the season, not just because he's been performing well as the Bears feature back, but because the Bears' remaining schedule has several juicy matchups: Lions twice, Rams, Falcons and Saints. There's no question he's a top-10 running back going forward.
Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: From an NFL perspective, Warner played terribly last week. From a fantasy perspective, though, he was terrific, especially in leagues that do not penalize turnovers. Lest you think that game was a fluke, i.e., similar to Brian Griese's 67-attempt game against the Bears a couple of weeks ago, rest assured it was not. Warner has been turnover-prone for years now (forcing him to score and throw even more), and the Cardinals' defense is not exactly stellar. Also, as the weather gets bad later in the year in most of the country, Warner gets his home games in the balmy desert. Going forward, Warner has some nice matchups left, including the Rams twice and the Niners. Even in the tougher matchups, though, like the Cowboys and Giants, we could reasonably find Warner throwing all game like he did against the Jets.
Lance Moore, WR, Saints: After Marques Colston got hurt, many people wondered which Saints wideout would step up in his absence. Wonder no longer. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are little more than deep threats, leaving Moore and Reggie Bush as the focus of the passing game. To put this in perspective, among the receivers I'd bench in favor of Moore this week (against a suspect Vikings pass defense) are the following: Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe and Roddy White.
No Change
Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: Johnson has posted two terrific games in a row, but I'm not sold on him being a top-10 running back. The Chiefs are not going to win more than five to six games, and when they fall behind, LJ won't get the 24(+) carries that he's gotten the past two weeks. That's a problem for any running back, but especially for Johnson, because he is invisible in the passing game. If I owned Johnson, I'd gladly "sell high" for any of the following RBs: Joseph Addai, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore or Marshawn Lynch.
Brett Favre, QB, Jets: Yes, Favre and the Jets looked terrific against the Cardinals. But let's not go overboard here. It was just one game. I'm still concerned that Favre doesn't have a full grasp of the offense. Plus, I still don't think the Jets are a playoff-caliber team, and I have doubt that Favre will perform at his best later in the year if the Jets are out of contention.
Downgrades
Browns and Bengals: The Browns/Bengals matchup last week was a litmus test for key players on both teams. They all failed. Derek Anderson looks like waiver-wire fodder in many leagues, and he's dragging Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow down with him. Jamal Lewis isn't running terribly, but with the Browns unable to score points like they did last year, he's not getting the goal-line TDs that he needs to be a fantasy starter. Carson Palmer's elbow problems cut against any hope of a turnaround and T.J. Houshmandzadeh's value is tied to Palmer. As for Chad Ocho Cinco, my mom taught me that if you don't have anything nice to say, it's better to say nothing at all.
Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: You can't waive a first-round running back after four weeks. But the fact that some people have even considered doing so shows just how far Grant has fallen. It's unclear whether his lack of production is due to injuries, but the simple fact is that he's not producing. A look at the Packers' remaining schedule suggests that a turnaround might not be coming, either. Although his matchups the next three weeks are not bad, after that it's a bye, then at Tennessee, at Minnesota and Chicago. That's four consecutive weeks, in the heart of the season, where it's hard to predict Grant doing much of anything. Even if Grant turns things around a bit in the next couple of games, sell high.
All Steelers: The Steelers are 3-1, but this team is not in good shape. You probably know that Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year and that Willie Parker won't play until after the Steelers' Week 6 bye. Unfortunately, the Steelers injury problems run much deeper. Coming into the season, the offensive line was projected to struggle due to the defection of Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca to the Jets. Now the Steelers are also without starting guard Kendall Simmons, who is out for the year. I know the Eagles and the Ravens had something to do with it as well, but this is why Ben Roethlisberger has been taking so many hits in recent weeks. My colleague Michael Salfino noted Tuesday here how Roethlisberger is being sacked on 17 percent of dropbacks, second most frequent behind J.T. O'Sullivan. Until the Steelers can get better line play, he, Santonio Holmes, Ward and whoever starts at running back must be downgraded.
10:56 PM Wed, Oct 01, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Chad Lawton
Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
Next Updated: 10/4
* = check status
Quarterback
1. Drew Brees, NO vs. MIN
2. Tony Romo, DAL vs. CIN
3. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. TB
4. Philip Rivers, SD at MIA
5. *Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. WAS
6. Peyton Manning, IND at HOU
7. *Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. ATL
NOTE: Keep an eye on Friday's practice.
8. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. BUF
9. Eli Manning, NYG vs. SEA
10. Brian Griese, TB at DEN
11. Jason Campbell, WAS at PHI
NOTE: Hasn't turned the ball over yet.
12. Jon Kitna, DET vs. CHI
13. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. IND
NOTE: Got back into swing at Jacksonville.
14. Kyle Orton, CHI at DET
NOTE: It's a matchup-driven rank.
15. Chad Pennington, MIA vs. SD
16. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. KC
17. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. NE
18. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at NYG
NOTE: Wait a week or two for vets to get healthy.
19. Trent Edwards, BUF at ARI
20. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at JAC
21. David Garrard, JAC vs. PIT
22. Matt Cassel, NE at SF
NOTE: How much did they coach him up during bye?
23. Gus Frerotte, MIN at NO
24. *Carson Palmer, CIN at DAL
NOTE: Sore elbow might keep him out.
25. Matt Ryan, ATL at GB
26. Damon Huard, KC at CAR
27. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. TEN
28. Kerry Collins, TEN at BAL
Running Back
1. Marion Barber, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Don't sweat last week's data.
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN at NO
3. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at MIA
4. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at ARI
5. Joseph Addai, IND at HOU
6. Frank Gore, SF vs. NE
7. Matt Forte, CHI at DET
NOTE: Every-down back, every-week back.
8. Earnest Graham, TB at DEN
9. Michael Turner, ATL at GB
10. Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. SEA
11. Clinton Portis, WAS at PHI
12. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. IND
13. Larry Johnson, KC at CAR
14. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. KC
NOTE: He'll gash this front seven.
15. *Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. WAS
NOTE: Limited in Wednesday's practice.
16. Ronnie Brown, MIA vs. SD
17. Ryan Grant, GB vs. ATL
NOTE: Last call before drop-down comes.
18. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. BUF
19. Chris Johnson, TEN at BAL
20. Reggie Bush, NO vs. MIN
21. Rudi Johnson, DET vs. CHI
22. *Mewelde Moore, PIT at JAC
NOTE: Needed with three others hurt.
23. *LeRon McClain, BAL vs. TEN
24. Julius Jones, SEA at NYG
25. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. PIT
26. *Chris Perry, CIN at DAL
27. Selvin Young, DEN vs. TB
28. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. KC
29. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. TEN
NOTE: McClain is healthier, more useful right now.
30. Deuce McAllister, NO vs. MIN
31. *Correll Buckhalter, PHI vs. WAS
32. Jerious Norwood, ATL at GB
33. Warrick Dunn, TB at DEN
34. Michael Pittman, DEN vs. TB
35. *Laurence Maroney, NE at SF
NOTE: Impossible to trust at this point.
36. LenDale White, TEN at BAL
NOTE: Does his best work at the 1-yard line.
37. Sammy Morris, NE at SF
38. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. PIT
39. Felix Jones, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Look for him in the third and fourth quarter.
40. Tim Hightower, ARI vs. BUF
41. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. ATL
42. Ricky Williams, MIA vs. SD
NOTE: Brown should take job and run with it.
43. Derrick Ward, NYG vs. SEA
44. Darren Sproles, SD at MIA
45. Chester Taylor, MIN at NO
46. Fred Jackson, BUF at ARI
NOTE: Must-have for Lynch owners.
47. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. SEA
48. T.J. Duckett, SEA at NYG
49. Chris Taylor, HOU vs. IND
50. *Carey Davis, PIT at JAC
51. Kevin Jones, CHI at DET
52. Dominic Rhodes, IND at HOU
53. Andre Hall, DEN vs. TB
54. Ladell Betts, WAS at PHI
55. Kevin Smith, DET vs. CHI
56. Kevin Faulk, NE at SF
57. Ray Rice, BAL vs. TEN
NOTE: Buried on the depth chart.
Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. TB
2. Reggie Wayne, IND at HOU
3. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. BUF
4. Calvin Johnson, DET vs. CHI
5. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: For all his bitching, they're using him.
6. Lee Evans, BUF at ARI
7. Steve Smith, CAR vs. KC
NOTE: Still electric with the yards after catch.
8. Greg Jennings, GB vs. ATL
9. Santana Moss, WAS at PHI
10. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. IND
11. Dwayne Bowe, KC at CAR
12. Roddy White, ATL at GB
NOTE: He can produce with anyone.
13. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at DAL
NOTE: Drop him 12-15 slots if Palmer can't go.
14. Chris Chambers, SD at MIA
15. Santonio Holmes, PIT at JAC
16. Roy Williams, DET vs. CHI
17. Randy Moss, NE at SF
NOTE: This week will define his season.
18. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. TB
19. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. WAS
20. Vincent Jackson, SD at MIA
21. Hines Ward, PIT at JAC
22. Steve Breaston, ARI vs. BUF
23. Lance Moore, NO vs. MIN
NOTE: Knows the offense, trusted by Brees.
24. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. NE
25. Antonio Bryant, TB at DEN
26. Wes Welker, NE at SF
27. Robert Meachem, NO vs. MIN
28. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. WAS
29. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. TEN
30. Matt Jones, JAC vs. PIT
31. Donald Driver, GB vs. ATL
32. Anthony Gonzalez, IND at HOU
33. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. IND
NOTE: One of the better No. 2s around.
34. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. SEA
35. Greg Camarillo, MIA vs. SD
36. Josh Reed, BUF at ARI
37. Marvin Harrison, IND at HOU
NOTE: Name-brand value is long gone.
38. Bernard Berrian, MIN at NO
39. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. KC
40. *Deion Branch, SEA at NYG
41. Chad Johnson, CIN at DAL
42. *Justin Gage, TEN at BAL
43. Ted Ginn, MIA vs. SD
44. *Bobby Engram, SEA at NYG
45. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at PHI
46. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Got involved more last week.
47. Steve Smith, NYG vs. SEA
48. Domenik Hixon, NYG vs. SEA
49. Ike Hilliard, TB at DEN
50. Devery Henderson, NO vs. MIN
51. Michael Clayton, TB at DEN
52. Michael Jenkins, ATL at GB
53. Arnaz Battle, SF vs. NE
NOTE: Starting to pick up offense and produce.
54. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. TB
55. *Sidney Rice, MIN at NO
56. Miles Austin, DAL vs. CIN
57. Antonio Chatman, CIN at DAL
58. Justin McCareins, TEN at BAL
59. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. PIT
60. *Bryant Johnson, SF vs. NE
61. Rashied Davis, CHI at DET
62. *David Patten, NO vs. MIN
NOTE: Doesn't have the upside others do here.
63. Jordy Nelson, GB vs. ATL
64. Bobby Wade, MIN at NO
65. Billy McMullen, SEA at NYG
66. Craig Davis, SD at MIA
67. *Marty Booker, CHI at DET
68. James Hardy, BUF at ARI
69. Nate Washington, PIT at JAC
70. Jabar Gaffney, NE at SF
NOTE: He'll see 5-7 targets a week.
71. James Thrash, WAS at PHI
72. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI at DET
73. Jerheme Urban, ARI vs. BUF
74. Brandon Jones, TEN at BAL
75. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. KC
76. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. WAS
77. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. TEN
NOTE: He's regressed since rookie year.
Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. CIN
2. *Antonio Gates, SD at MIA
3. Tony Gonzalez, KC at CAR
4. Anthony Fasano, MIA vs. SD
5. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. IND
6. Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. TB
7. Chris Cooley, WAS at PHI
NOTE: At least we know he studies the playbook.
8. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. SEA
9. Dallas Clark, IND at HOU
10. Donald Lee, GB vs. ATL
11. John Carlson, SEA at NYG
NOTE: Should get 4-5 grabs here.
12. Heath Miller, PIT at JAC
13. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at NO
14. Billy Miller, NO vs. MIN
15. Greg Olsen, CHI at DET
NOTE: Physical gifts starting to show.
16. David Martin, MIA vs. SD
17. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. KC
18. Vernon Davis, SF vs. NE
19. Delanie Walker, SF vs. NE
20. Bo Scaife, TEN at BAL
21. Ben Watson, NE at SF
22. Todd Heap, BAL vs. TEN
23. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. PIT
24. Alex Smith, TB at DEN
25. *L.J. Smith, PHI vs. WAS
26. Robert Royal, BUF at ARI
27. Reggie Kelly, CIN at DAL
28. Desmond Clark, CHI at DET
29. Jerramy Stevens, TB at DEN
Kicker
1. Nick Folk, DAL vs. CIN
2. Nate Kaeding, SD at MIA
3. Mason Crosby, GB vs. ATL
NOTE: Drop 7-8 slots if Rodgers doesn't play.
4. Matt Prater, DEN vs. TB
5. Adam Vinatieri, IND at HOU
6. *John Carney, NYG vs. SEA
7. John Kasay, CAR vs. KC
8. Robbie Gould, CHI at DET
9. David Akers, PHI vs. WAS
NOTE: Long leg, but somewhat erratic.
10. Rian Lindell, BUF at ARI
11. Neil Rackers, ARI vs. BUF
12. Rob Bironas, TEN at BAL
13. Matt Bryant, TB at DEN
NOTE: The hero of Week 4.
14. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. MIN
15. Ryan Longwell, MIN at NO
16. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. PIT
17. Stephen Gostkowski, NE at SF
18. Shaun Suisham, WAS at PHI
19. Jeff Reed, PIT at JAC
20. Matt Stover, BAL vs. TEN
21. Joe Nedney, SF vs. NE
22. Kris Brown, HOU vs. IND
23. Jason Hanson, DET vs. CHI
24. Olindo Mare, SEA at NYG
25. Jason Elam, ATL at GB
26. Dan Carpenter, MIA vs. SD
27. Nick Novak, KC at CAR
28. Shayne Graham, CIN at DAL
Defense
1. Dallas vs. Cincinnati
NOTE: Gang up on struggling O-line.
2. New York Giants vs. Seattle
3. Tennessee at Baltimore
4. Chicago at Detroit
5. Jacksonville vs. Pittsburgh
6. Carolina vs. Kansas City
7. Baltimore vs. Tennessee
8. Green Bay vs. Atlanta
9. Philadelphia vs. Washington
NOTE: Jim Johnson will beat your blocking scheme.
10. Buffalo at Arizona
11. New England at San Francisco
12. San Diego at Miami
13. Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
14. Arizona vs. Buffalo
15. Indianapolis at Houston
16. Washington at Philadelphia
17. Minnesota at New Orleans
NOTE: Another example of a buzz defense gone bad.
18. Seattle at New York Giants
19. Atlanta at Green Bay
20. Detroit vs. Chicago
21. New Orleans vs. Minnesota
22. Denver vs. Tampa Bay
23. Tampa Bay at Denver
24. Houston vs. Indianapolis
25. Miami vs. San Diego
26. San Francisco at New Orleans
27. Kansas City at Carolina
28. Cincinnati at Dallas
1:53 PM Tue, Sep 30, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
Last week featured one big upset and a couple of near misses. But those reading here would not have been shocked by the Broncos' laying an egg in Kansas City, given their struggles all year on pass defense. Oddly, though, while Denver defied the odds the prior two weeks in winning despite being out-passed, it lost to the Chiefs while holding the edge here.
Let's examine the on-field events that led to that loss, use our key stats to rank the NFL's best and worst teams and make some related player recommendations.
It's not Denver's passing yardage total that makes us look more deeply, but rather their superior passing efficiency in a losing cause. This efficiency is measured by Yards Per Attempt (YPA), including sacks. Denver was one of five teams to fall victim in Week 4 despite having the YPA edge. The others were the Texans, the Raiders, the Rams and the Eagles. You won't find many weeks where the teams winning YPA finish only 8-5. This brings our YPA leaders record this year to 47-14, slightly under the 80 percent win percentage we expect (at 77 percent).
What happened to these teams? To find out, we can affix a point value to various on-field events courtesy of Bud Goode's nearly half-century of NFL statistical research (BudGoodeSports.com).
The Broncos threw two more picks than the Chiefs, which generally cost a team six points each. Their extra lost fumble is about minus-two points on average - remember, fumbles come with runs, and teams tend to run more when they're winning. Sacks are worth about three points each, but the teams were even there. The Broncos had 76 more yards from scrimmage, worth about five points (one for every 15 yards, on average). But the Chiefs get about three of those points back with the return yards on their two picks. Add it all up and the expectation is a Chiefs win by 11. They actually won by 14, close enough.
The Texans had a narrow edge in YPA and lost in overtime to the Jaguars -- tough break, but it makes sense. The Raiders and the Eagles lost because of red-zone efficiency. Net red zone possessions is a better indicator of strength generally. But what's true generally is often not true in a specific instance. The loss by the Rams, especially by 14 points, makes no sense statistically. But the Rams, rife with dissension, may have a loser's mentality now that stats can't measure.
Not all of our teams have played the same number of games. But with the exception of net red-zone possessions, our other key stats are averages - net YPA, net third-down percentage and net interception percentage. Why these stats? Because over many years of data they correlate to winning better than the others.
So our Key Stat Power Index has the Ravens, the Bills,the Eagles, the Giants and the Cardinals as the top five teams right now. The Cardinals are fumbling frequently on pass plays, courtesy of Kurt Warner's butter fingers, and thus are overrated by our index. I stand by the other four. Dallas, by the way, is eighth, but that's screwy because the Cowboys, unbelievably, have yet to pick off a pass and thus are 29th in net interception percentage. These types of oddities correct with more data.
Bottom five, worst first: Lions, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs and Texans. The Jets, at 2-2, are next worst and not in the top half in any of our stat categories, which should trouble their fans.
Buy
Earnest Graham, RB, Bucs: Tampa Bay has 18 red-zone possessions (third-most) and Graham hasn't gotten his fair share of cheapies yet. He's also showed surprising game-breaking speed. Warrick Dunn is stealing too many touches but is too old and will fade.
Ravens Pass Defense: I thought this unit would be human, but 4.13 yards allowed per pass make you stand up and salute. Only stars should be expected to produce even middling stats against them.
Hold
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: Have to downgrade him because he's been sacked 17 percent of dropbacks. This is the dark side of the otherwise wonderful Mike Martz passing offense.
Sell
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: He's also been sacked 17 percent of dropbacks. Until it gets cut in half like his average of past years, expect disappointing statistical returns and even injury.
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: He had 200 yards from scrimmage and scored last week. That's a selling window. The Rams get Marc Bulger back at QB but are a mess and have gotten the ball into the red zone three times all year.
Denver Broncos Defense: We knew they were bad against the pass, and then Larry Johnson turns the clock back to 2005 and puts up a near deuce against them. Their 6.6 yards allowed per play is barely better than the toothless Lions (6.8). Teams need to score a truckload of points, too, because the Broncos offense is so good (second best 6.6. yards per play behind Dallas, 6.8).
10:36 PM Sun, Sep 28, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
Kurt Warner (457 passing yards) was sacked five times and fumbled on four, losing three. He also threw three picks. Fantasy players who own Warner have to be very happy they weren't playing in Reality Leagues on Sunday.
The Jets bedeviled Warner during the 34-0 first half with a "mush rush" where they sent only two defenders after Warner. That left nine to cover. With most defenders standing at the snap, they later mixed some blitzing off the same look, and Warner and his linemen never knew who or what was coming.
Glad to note that Anquan Boldin was alert and had movement in all his extremities after a helmet-to-helmet hit in the final seconds. It's often not the case that defenders are trying to hit receivers like Boldin that way. They launch themselves into a moving target and sometimes these bad collisions just happen. Fines imply all these hits are intentional, which defies reason.
Verdict on Derek Anderson is a push, as in push him to your bench. He easily could have been replaced by Brady Quinn in the third quarter. Anderson rallied after an argument with Braylon Edwards, who gave up on a would-be TD pass last week against the Ravens because he wanted to avoid one of those aforementioned collisions with Ed Reed. Sell all Browns and especially Jamal Lewis, who had a decent day (94 total yards and a TD).
Larry Johnson still has greatness in him and has low enough mileage for a back his age when you look at career carries (1,136). But I'm not buying him unless Damon Huard is the long-term QB, which he will not be with the Chiefs in rebuilding mode.
We saw another direct snap to a running back that resulted in a TD, this time sans QB. Teams like this play because defenses must account for every player. On traditional running plays, they just ignore the QB. But making the QB such a running threat puts the backside defender in no-man's land and makes it impossible for him to crash the line of scrimmage. Teams will get the film out on how Tampa Bay used to shut down Michael Vick and the Falcons in this formation and will start shutting these plays down.
The NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe thought Steve Slaton was the best running back in the draft? That's what he said this week. I still think he's a situational player who can excel as a receiver periodically, like he did Sunday. But trade him if anyone else is buying at close to Sharpe's price.
Coaches cover up their mouths with that Kinko's, laminated playcall sheet when radioing the call to the QB. But the longer calls are all passes, so when they pull the sheet down from their lips quick, you know it's likely to be a run. How about having the QB make the calls like they all did before the coaches made themselves the center of the game.
I'm always impressed by Tennessee's two tackles: Dave Stewart (right) and Michael Roos (left). This week against the best defensive line in the sport (the Vikings'), they kept Kerry Collins clean (no sacks) and cleared the way for three rushing TDs.
Biggest news of the week is going to be the MRI that determines if Aaron Rodgers' throwing shoulder is separated. But an additional concern in Green Bay must be Ryan Grant. He's been limited by a hamstring injury. But we have to judge him by his performance. Grant had 17 yards on his first four carries, and just three more on his final 11.
I guess Brett Favre has settled in with the Jets, who have cut out most motion plays in the passing game at Favre's request. Like Peyton Manning, Favre likes to see the defense set before he reads it pre-snap.
The fastballs from Favre were humming better than from any Mets reliever all September. Laveranues Coles had a putative fourth second-quarter TD reception sail threw his mitts on a spiral that broke the New Jersey speed limit for sure.
Among the lost opportunities on Sunday were a LaDainian Tomlinson drop of flat pass for a walk-in TD and two penalties from Redskins center Casey Rabach that erased a Clinton Portis TD and a Jason Campbell-to-Antwaan Randle El scoring hookup.
Oh, and Sebastian Janikowski failed on a 76-yard field goal attempt. Who do the Atoms, er, the Raiders think he is, Gus the Wonder Mule?
Donovan McNabb looked outstanding again the first half in Chicago despite playing with skill position table scraps and a rookie against a top-shelf defense.
That rookie, my colleague Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! notes, is reminiscent of Steve Smith. But Smith only started coming on late in his second year. DeSean Jackson is acting like he's double parked and really needs to make a statement quickly.
Kyle Orton's three TD passes against an Eagles defense that embarrassed the Steelers last week deserve note, too, as two of them were highlight-film-quality beauties.
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