Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

September 2008 Archives

By Michael Salfino

Last week featured one big upset and a couple of near misses. But those reading here would not have been shocked by the Broncos' laying an egg in Kansas City, given their struggles all year on pass defense. Oddly, though, while Denver defied the odds the prior two weeks in winning despite being out-passed, it lost to the Chiefs while holding the edge here.

Let's examine the on-field events that led to that loss, use our key stats to rank the NFL's best and worst teams and make some related player recommendations.

It's not Denver's passing yardage total that makes us look more deeply, but rather their superior passing efficiency in a losing cause. This efficiency is measured by Yards Per Attempt (YPA), including sacks. Denver was one of five teams to fall victim in Week 4 despite having the YPA edge. The others were the Texans, the Raiders, the Rams and the Eagles. You won't find many weeks where the teams winning YPA finish only 8-5. This brings our YPA leaders record this year to 47-14, slightly under the 80 percent win percentage we expect (at 77 percent).

What happened to these teams? To find out, we can affix a point value to various on-field events courtesy of Bud Goode's nearly half-century of NFL statistical research (BudGoodeSports.com).

The Broncos threw two more picks than the Chiefs, which generally cost a team six points each. Their extra lost fumble is about minus-two points on average - remember, fumbles come with runs, and teams tend to run more when they're winning. Sacks are worth about three points each, but the teams were even there. The Broncos had 76 more yards from scrimmage, worth about five points (one for every 15 yards, on average). But the Chiefs get about three of those points back with the return yards on their two picks. Add it all up and the expectation is a Chiefs win by 11. They actually won by 14, close enough.

The Texans had a narrow edge in YPA and lost in overtime to the Jaguars -- tough break, but it makes sense. The Raiders and the Eagles lost because of red-zone efficiency. Net red zone possessions is a better indicator of strength generally. But what's true generally is often not true in a specific instance. The loss by the Rams, especially by 14 points, makes no sense statistically. But the Rams, rife with dissension, may have a loser's mentality now that stats can't measure.

Not all of our teams have played the same number of games. But with the exception of net red-zone possessions, our other key stats are averages - net YPA, net third-down percentage and net interception percentage. Why these stats? Because over many years of data they correlate to winning better than the others.

So our Key Stat Power Index has the Ravens, the Bills,the Eagles, the Giants and the Cardinals as the top five teams right now. The Cardinals are fumbling frequently on pass plays, courtesy of Kurt Warner's butter fingers, and thus are overrated by our index. I stand by the other four. Dallas, by the way, is eighth, but that's screwy because the Cowboys, unbelievably, have yet to pick off a pass and thus are 29th in net interception percentage. These types of oddities correct with more data.

Bottom five, worst first: Lions, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs and Texans. The Jets, at 2-2, are next worst and not in the top half in any of our stat categories, which should trouble their fans.

Buy

Earnest Graham, RB, Bucs: Tampa Bay has 18 red-zone possessions (third-most) and Graham hasn't gotten his fair share of cheapies yet. He's also showed surprising game-breaking speed. Warrick Dunn is stealing too many touches but is too old and will fade.

Ravens Pass Defense: I thought this unit would be human, but 4.13 yards allowed per pass make you stand up and salute. Only stars should be expected to produce even middling stats against them.

Hold

J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: Have to downgrade him because he's been sacked 17 percent of dropbacks. This is the dark side of the otherwise wonderful Mike Martz passing offense.

Sell

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: He's also been sacked 17 percent of dropbacks. Until it gets cut in half like his average of past years, expect disappointing statistical returns and even injury.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: He had 200 yards from scrimmage and scored last week. That's a selling window. The Rams get Marc Bulger back at QB but are a mess and have gotten the ball into the red zone three times all year.

Denver Broncos Defense: We knew they were bad against the pass, and then Larry Johnson turns the clock back to 2005 and puts up a near deuce against them. Their 6.6 yards allowed per play is barely better than the toothless Lions (6.8). Teams need to score a truckload of points, too, because the Broncos offense is so good (second best 6.6. yards per play behind Dallas, 6.8).

By Michael Salfino

Kurt Warner (457 passing yards) was sacked five times and fumbled on four, losing three. He also threw three picks. Fantasy players who own Warner have to be very happy they weren't playing in Reality Leagues on Sunday.

The Jets bedeviled Warner during the 34-0 first half with a "mush rush" where they sent only two defenders after Warner. That left nine to cover. With most defenders standing at the snap, they later mixed some blitzing off the same look, and Warner and his linemen never knew who or what was coming.

Glad to note that Anquan Boldin was alert and had movement in all his extremities after a helmet-to-helmet hit in the final seconds. It's often not the case that defenders are trying to hit receivers like Boldin that way. They launch themselves into a moving target and sometimes these bad collisions just happen. Fines imply all these hits are intentional, which defies reason.

Verdict on Derek Anderson is a push, as in push him to your bench. He easily could have been replaced by Brady Quinn in the third quarter. Anderson rallied after an argument with Braylon Edwards, who gave up on a would-be TD pass last week against the Ravens because he wanted to avoid one of those aforementioned collisions with Ed Reed. Sell all Browns and especially Jamal Lewis, who had a decent day (94 total yards and a TD).

Larry Johnson still has greatness in him and has low enough mileage for a back his age when you look at career carries (1,136). But I'm not buying him unless Damon Huard is the long-term QB, which he will not be with the Chiefs in rebuilding mode.

We saw another direct snap to a running back that resulted in a TD, this time sans QB. Teams like this play because defenses must account for every player. On traditional running plays, they just ignore the QB. But making the QB such a running threat puts the backside defender in no-man's land and makes it impossible for him to crash the line of scrimmage. Teams will get the film out on how Tampa Bay used to shut down Michael Vick and the Falcons in this formation and will start shutting these plays down.

The NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe thought Steve Slaton was the best running back in the draft? That's what he said this week. I still think he's a situational player who can excel as a receiver periodically, like he did Sunday. But trade him if anyone else is buying at close to Sharpe's price.

Coaches cover up their mouths with that Kinko's, laminated playcall sheet when radioing the call to the QB. But the longer calls are all passes, so when they pull the sheet down from their lips quick, you know it's likely to be a run. How about having the QB make the calls like they all did before the coaches made themselves the center of the game.

I'm always impressed by Tennessee's two tackles: Dave Stewart (right) and Michael Roos (left). This week against the best defensive line in the sport (the Vikings'), they kept Kerry Collins clean (no sacks) and cleared the way for three rushing TDs.

Biggest news of the week is going to be the MRI that determines if Aaron Rodgers' throwing shoulder is separated. But an additional concern in Green Bay must be Ryan Grant. He's been limited by a hamstring injury. But we have to judge him by his performance. Grant had 17 yards on his first four carries, and just three more on his final 11.

I guess Brett Favre has settled in with the Jets, who have cut out most motion plays in the passing game at Favre's request. Like Peyton Manning, Favre likes to see the defense set before he reads it pre-snap.

The fastballs from Favre were humming better than from any Mets reliever all September. Laveranues Coles had a putative fourth second-quarter TD reception sail threw his mitts on a spiral that broke the New Jersey speed limit for sure.

Among the lost opportunities on Sunday were a LaDainian Tomlinson drop of flat pass for a walk-in TD and two penalties from Redskins center Casey Rabach that erased a Clinton Portis TD and a Jason Campbell-to-Antwaan Randle El scoring hookup.

Oh, and Sebastian Janikowski failed on a 76-yard field goal attempt. Who do the Atoms, er, the Raiders think he is, Gus the Wonder Mule?

Donovan McNabb looked outstanding again the first half in Chicago despite playing with skill position table scraps and a rookie against a top-shelf defense.

That rookie, my colleague Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! notes, is reminiscent of Steve Smith. But Smith only started coming on late in his second year. DeSean Jackson is acting like he's double parked and really needs to make a statement quickly.

Kyle Orton's three TD passes against an Eagles defense that embarrassed the Steelers last week deserve note, too, as two of them were highlight-film-quality beauties.

By David Ferris

Tomorrow's championship run begins with the foundation we start laying today. Let's give one last look at 2008 and see what we can apply for next year.

Pitchers

BUY

Frank Francisco, RP, Rangers: He got the closing gig in late August when Eddie Guardado was traded, and it was a perfect fit immediately (10 scoreless innings, four walks, 17 strikeouts, five saves). Short-sighted owners skipped Francisco a month ago because of his series of blown saves in middle relief, but working out of a midgame jam is a trickier assignment than pitching the ninth inning with no one on base. Francisco should be one of the cheaper save-grabbers on the market next spring, and that's always an angle we'll be looking to cash in with.

SELL

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, free agent: The key here is not to be overwhelmed by the save total; it's an impressive feat, but it speaks for the constant opportunities the Angels gave Rodriguez, not how well he pitched. K-Rod's had at least two or three better seasons himself, and if you examine all of the AL's closers for 2008 and skip over the save counts, Rodriguez will not grade out on top (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Joakim Soria stand ahead of him). Bottom line, Rodriguez will be handsomely paid by a major-league club this winter and by fantasy owners next spring, but the sharp play is to find saves on a budget, not to write a fat check and pay retail.

Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: It's been a fun story and we like him to be a productive member of the Oakland bullpen for years to come, but his sinker and ground-ball dominance are better suited for a non-closing gig going forward. The competition for the ninth inning by the bay figures to be fierce: Huston Street wants his job back, and Joey Devine was utterly dominant (despite injuries) in his Oakland debut.

HOLD

Cliff Lee, SP, Indians: Career years should be taken with a skeptical tack, there's no doubt about that, but Lee's breakthrough season probably was more real than conventional wisdom accepts. A tightened delivery and improved control led to the massive walk drop, and he's starting to get "reputation calls" when he paints the corner. Lee's home-run luck probably won't carry over to 2009 - only 5 percent of his fly balls left the park this year, unsustainable - but that's the only rabbit's foot we see on the resume. The league hit .305 against Lee on balls in play, essentially the league average. If the rest of the room refuses to buy in for Lee's encore season, go ahead and pay for 16 wins, 175 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid-3s. It's going to come cheaper than you might expect.

Batters

BUY

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Don't write him off as just another injury-plagued third sacker; you'll miss the snappy way Blalock finished 2008 (.327, seven homers over the last month). Arlington is an ideal hitting environment for a left-handed power hitter, and Blalock also offers first-base eligibility into the new season (he split his time between the two spots this summer).

SELL

Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: At quick glance there appears to be value here: a .270 average, 10 homers and 54 RBIs is respectable at the position. But things get ugly if you look a level deeper: a .238 average against right-handed pitching; a 162-point drop in OPS; a puny .380 slugging percentage; five fewer steals from the previous year. Renteria turns 34 next summer, but his bat speed is aging at a quicker rate. There's major collapse risk with this stock.

HOLD

Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: He hit lefties and righties, he raked at home and on the road, and he produced very consistent numbers every month following his June promotion. Aviles was also sharp in the field, further solidifying his hold on the position. The mediocre fantasy owner will want to discount Aviles strictly because of unfamiliarity, but this surprising breakout holds up when you look under the hood.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: Some injuries and less aggressiveness on the bases masked what was arguably a growth season; don't overlook the significant progress Granderson made against left-handed pitching (where he jumped 104 points). He'll go back to making us very content in all five categories again next spring, and probably at a modest discount. We haven't seen Granderson's best haul yet.

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every
10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Update: 10/1

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tony Romo, DAL vs. WAS
2. Jay Cutler, DEN at KC
3. Philip Rivers, SD at OAK
NOTE: He's driving the offense now.
4. Drew Brees, NO vs. SF
NOTE: He's done it with scraps before.
5. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF at NO
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB at TB
7. *Carson Palmer, CIN vs. CLE
8. Trent Edwards, BUF at STL
NOTE: Good chance for multiples against putrid defense.
9. *Donovan McNabb, PHI at CHI
10. Kurt Warner, ARI at NYJ
11. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. ATL
12. *Brett Favre, NYJ vs. ARI
13. Jason Campbell, WAS at DAL
14. Brian Griese, TB vs. GB
15. David Garrard, JAC vs. HOU
16. *Derek Anderson, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Last call for his job.
17. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. BAL
18. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. MIN
19. Matt Schaub, HOU at JAC
NOTE: Needs his mojo back, and quickly.
20. Damon Huard, KC vs. DEN
NOTE: Gives them a shot; Thigpen doesn't.
21. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. SD
NOTE: Still a work in progress.
22. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. PHI
23. Trent Green, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: He'll face the same problems Bulger did.
24. Matt Ryan, ATL at CAR
25. Gus Frerotte, MIN at TEN
26. Joe Flacco, BAL at PIT
27. Brady Quinn, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Figure on him starting, sooner or later.
28. Sage Rosenfels, HOU at JAC

Running Back
1. Marion Barber, DAL vs. WAS
2. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at STL
3. Frank Gore, SF at NO
4. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at OAK
5. *Adrian Peterson, MIN at TEN
6. Reggie Bush, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Receiving skills needed with others out.
7. Clinton Portis, WAS at DAL
8. Matt Forte, CHI vs. PHI
9. Larry Johnson, KC vs. DEN
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. HOU
NOTE: Got off the skids last week.
11. Jamal Lewis, CLE at CIN
12. *Michael Turner, ATL at CAR
13. Steve Slaton, HOU at JAC
NOTE: Undersized, but might be thick enough.
14. *Steven Jackson, STL vs. BUF
15. Earnest Graham, TB vs. GB
NOTE: Give him a pass for crazy Week 3.
16. Chris Perry, CIN vs. CLE
17. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. HOU
18. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. ARI
19. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. ATL
NOTE: Still a No. 2, but will get scoring carries.
20. Selvin Young, DEN at KC
21. *Ryan Grant, GB at TB
22. Edgerrin James, ARI at NYJ
23. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. MIN
24. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. BAL
NOTE: Steps in for injured Parker, tricky matchup.
25. *Darren McFadden, OAK vs. SD
NOTE: Toe injury a legitimate concern.
26. Michael Bush, OAK vs. SD
27. Willis McGahee, BAL at PIT
28. *Correll Buckhalter, PHI at CHI
29. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. ATL
30. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Trusted around the goal line.
31. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at CHI
NOTE: Very iffy, play it safe here.
32. LenDale White, TEN vs. MIN
33. Jerious Norwood, ATL at CAR
34. Tim Hightower, ARI at NYJ
35. *Le'Ron McClain, BAL at PIT
NOTE: Fullback gets goal-line looks.
36. Felix Jones, DAL vs. WAS
37. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. GB
38. Michael Pittman, DEN at KC
NOTE: Their designated scorer.
39. Darren Sproles, SD at OAK
40. Fred Jackson, BUF at STL
NOTE: Not a bad spot-play for garbage time.
41. Brandon Jackson, GB at TB
42. Andre Hall, DEN at KC
43. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. BAL
44. Lorenzo Booker, PHI at CHI
45. *Chester Taylor, MIN at TEN
46. Kenny Watson, CIN vs. CLE
47. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. ARI
48. Jerome Harrison, CLE at CIN
49. Ladell Betts, WAS at DAL
50. Chris Taylor, HOU at JAC
51. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. DEN
52. Ray Rice, BAL at PIT
NOTE: McClain emergence kills his value.
53. Jason Wright, CLE at CIN
54. Garrett Wolfe, CHI vs. PHI
55. Jason McKie, CHI vs. PHI

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN at KC
2. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. WAS
3. Steve Smith, CAR vs. ATL
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at NYJ
5. Greg Jennings, GB at TB
6. *Anquan Boldin, ARI at NYJ
NOTE: The Sundance to Fitzgerald's Cassidy.
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. CLE
NOTE: Welcome to the 2008 season.
8. Andre Johnson, HOU at JAC
9. Lee Evans, BUF at STL
10. Santana Moss, WAS at DAL
11. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Doing it 20-to-20, needs goal-line work.
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. DEN
13. Chris Chambers, SD at OAK
14. Donald Driver, GB at TB
15. Roddy White, ATL at CAR
16. *Braylon Edwards, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Limited in Wednesday's workout.
17. Vincent Jackson, SD at OAK
18. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. BAL
19. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. ARI
20. DeSean Jackson, PHI at CHI
21. Torry Holt, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: It's hard to trust this offense.
22. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. GB
23. Hines Ward, PIT vs. BAL
24. *Eddie Royal, DEN at KC
25. Isaac Bruce, SF at NO
26. Justin Gage, TEN vs. MIN
NOTE: Not in the injury report this week.
27. Chad Johnson, CIN vs. CLE
NOTE: Team says he's healthy, tape says otherwise.
28. Derrick Mason, BAL at PIT
29. *Lance Moore, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Might step up with others hurt.
30. Josh Reed, BUF at STL
31. *Robert Meachem, NO vs. SF
32. *Kevin Walter, HOU at JAC
33. *Bernard Berrian, MIN at TEN
34. Matt Jones, JAC vs. HOU
NOTE: By default, their best option.
35. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at DAL
36. *Justin McCareins, TEN vs. MIN
37. Craig Davis, SD at OAK
38. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. WAS
39. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Hey, he keeps scoring.
40. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. GB
41. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. HOU
42. Miles Austin, DAL vs. WAS
43. Hank Baskett, PHI at CHI
44. Michael Jenkins, ATL at CAR
45. Mark Clayton, BAL at PIT
46. Javon Walker, OAK vs. SD
47. Devery Henderson, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Just a one-trick pony.
48. Antonio Chatman, CIN vs. CLE
49. *Jordy Nelson, GB at TB
50. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. ATL
51. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. SD
52. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. ATL
53. Devard Darling, KC vs. DEN
54. Bobby Wade, MIN at TEN
55. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. SD
56. *Reggie Brown, PHI at CHI
57. Greg Lewis, PHI at CHI
58. *Bryant Johnson, SF at NO
NOTE: Nicked up and hard to use here.
59. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. PHI
60. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. PHI
NOTE: Hip injury kills the buzz.
61. James Hardy, BUF at STL
NOTE: More reps with Parrish hurt.
62. *Sidney Rice, MIN at TEN
63. *Jerry Porter, JAC vs. HOU
64. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. MIN
65. Steve Breaston, ARI at NYJ
66. Devin Thomas, WAS at DAL
67. Donnie Avery, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: Steps into the starting lineup.
68. Josh Cribbs, CLE at CIN
69. Ashley Lelie, OAK vs. SD
70. *David Patten, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Might play, but will be limited.
71. *Donte Stallworth, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Late setback, out for another week.
72. *Joey Galloway, TB vs. GB
NOTE: Already ruled out.

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. WAS
2. *Antonio Gates, SD at OAK
3. Chris Cooley, WAS at DAL
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. DEN
5. Kellen Winslow, CLE at CIN
6. Tony Scheffler, DEN at KC
NOTE: Tied to the right offense.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU at JAC
8. Donald Lee, GB at TB
9. Vernon Davis, SF at NO
NOTE: Leaves yards on the table every week.
10. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. GB
11. Heath Miller, PIT vs. BAL
12. Robert Royal, BUF at STL
13. Zach Miller, OAK vs. SD
14. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. MIN
15. Billy Miller, NO vs. SF
16. Todd Heap, BAL at PIT
17. Randy McMichael, STL vs. BUF
18. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. MIN
NOTE: Just about unusable at this point.
19. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. ATL
20. Reggie Kelly, CIN vs. CLE
21. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at TEN
22. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. HOU
23. Ben Patrick, ARI at NYJ
24. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Four catches in the SD loss.
25. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. PHI
26. Jeff King, CAR vs. ATL
27. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. PHI
28. Delanie Walker, SF at NO
29. Chris Baker, NYJ vs. ARI
30. Brent Celek, PHI at CHI
NOTE: L.J. Smith not expected to go.

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD at OAK
NOTE: They trust him on long kicks, too.
2. Nick Folk, DAL vs. WAS
3. Rian Lindell, BUF at STL
4. Matt Prater, DEN at KC
5. John Kasay, CAR vs. ATL
6. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. HOU
7. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. SF
8. David Akers, PHI at CHI
9. Mason Crosby, GB at TB
10. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. CLE
11. Ryan Longwell, MIN at TEN
12. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. MIN
13. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. BAL
14. Neil Rackers, ARI at NYJ
NOTE: Might be on thin ice.
15. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. ARI
16. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. PHI
17. *Matt Bryant, TB vs. GB
18. Joe Nedney, SF at NO
19. Phil Dawson, CLE at CIN
20. Kris Brown, HOU at JAC
21. Matt Stover, BAL at PIT
22. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. SD
23. Jason Elam, ATL at CAR
24. Shaun Suisham, WAS at DAL
25. Josh Brown, STL vs. BUF
26. Nick Novak, KC vs. DEN

Defense
1. Dallas vs. Washington
NOTE: They'll find a way to confuse Campbell.
2. Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
NOTE: Strong play against rookie QB.
3. Philadelphia at Chicago
4. Buffalo at St. Louis
5. Tennessee vs. Minnesota
NOTE: Who are those guys?
6. Carolina vs. Atlanta
7. Baltimore at Pittsburgh
8. San Diego at Oakland
9. Denver at Kansas City
NOTE: Gang up on the weak club.
10. Chicago vs. Philadelphia
11. Jacksonville vs. Houston
12. Minnesota at Tennessee
13. Green Bay at Tampa Bay
14. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
15. New Orleans vs. San Francisco
16. Cleveland at Cincinnati
17. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
18. Houston at Jacksonville
19. Atlanta at Carolina
20. Arizona at New York Jets
NOTE: They've faded the last two weeks.
21. New York Jets vs. Arizona
22. Oakland vs. San Diego
23. San Francisco at New Orleans
24. Washington at Dallas
25. Kansas City vs. Denver
26. St. Louis vs. Buffalo

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

Jets QB Brett Favre (ankle) is listed as questionable and was limited in practice all week but is expected to start against Arizona. Favre, of course, has never missed a start.

Bengals QB Carson Palmer (right elbow) was a late add to the injury report after experiencing soreness in his arm on Friday. He is listed as questionable, but will play in a very favorable match-up against the Browns.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (chest) was held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, but practiced fully on Friday and will start against the Bears.

Titans QB Vince Young (knee, hamstring) is out, allowing Kerry Collins to start again in Week 4.

Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle (right shoulder) is listed as out, allowing Damon Huard to get the start against the Broncos.

Ravens QB Troy Smith (illness) is out. Joe Flacco will start on Monday night against the Steelers.

Running Backs

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson (toe) was held out of practice Wednesday before fully working out Thursday and Friday.

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (hamstring) and Chester Taylor (foot) are both questionable after only participating on a limited basis at practice all week. Anticipate a regular workload for each against the Titans.

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) is listed as questionable, although he did not practice at all this week. Expect him to be out and for Correll Buckhalter to start in his place, but follow the news Sunday morning.

Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin) was limited in practice earlier in the week, but participated fully on Friday and will start.

Ravens RB Willis McGahee (eye) is listed as probable after practicing fully on Friday. He is being eased back into regular duty, but expect a tough road against a stingy Steelers run defense.

Falcons RB Michael Turner (shoulder) practiced fully all week.

Steelers RB Willie Parker (knee) is out for the Monday night game against the Ravens. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall, a first-round pick, gets his first NFL start.

Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) put in a full practice on Friday and will once again split carries with DeAngelo Williams on Sunday against the Falcons.

Titans RB LenDale White (shoulder) is listed as probable after being limited in practice Thursday, but putting in a full practice Friday. He'll split carries with Chris Johnson, and continue to get the goal line action (four TDs already).

Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice all week. Rookie RB Steve Slaton looks to be a solid start once again after putting up great numbers last weekend (18 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD).

Jaguars RB Fred Taylor (hand) and Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) both practiced fully on Friday and are listed as probable against the Colts.

Raiders RB Justin Fargas (groin) is once again out. Teammate Darren McFadden (toe) is listed as questionable this weekend after being limited in practice Thursday and Friday. McFadden and Michael Bush will once again split the carries versus the Chargers.

Wide Receivers

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring) is listed as probable after tweaking his hamstring at practice on Friday.

Browns WR Braylon Edwards (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable after limited participation in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and a full workout on Friday. Teammate WR Donte' Stallworth (quadriceps) was downgraded to doubtful and won't play on Sunday. He was once again limited in practice before being held out on Friday.

Jets WR Laveranues Coles (thigh) is once again listed as questionable after another week of limited practice. He looked more comfortable on Monday night (six catches and a touchdown) despite the injury, and should be a good play against the Cardinals.

Saints WR Marques Colston (thumb) is once again out and David Patten (groin) is questionable. Lance Moore got the bread-and-butter throws in their place last week.

Niners WR Bryant Johnson (hamstring) did not participate in practice Thursday, and was limited on Friday. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision.

Jaguars WR Troy Williamson (thigh) and Jerry Porter (hamstring) both fully participated in practice on Friday and are listed as probable against the Texans. Williamson will definitely play, while Coach Jack Del Rio has stated that Porter will still be a game-time decision.

Bears WR Brandon Lloyd (hip) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice on Friday. He is expected to play on Sunday, and should once again be a top target in the Bears passing game.

Eagles WR Kevin Curtis (hernia) was limited in practice this week and is listed as doubtful.

Rams WR Drew Bennett (foot) is once again out.

Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway (foot) is once again out this week after not practicing.

Other Positions

Chargers TE Antonio Gates (hip) is listed as probable after being held out of practice Wednesday before practicing fully Thursday and Friday. Expect a strong performance against the Raiders.

Cowboys TE Jason Witten (shoulder) practiced fully all week and is listed as probable against the Redskins.

Saints TE Jeremy Shockey (hernia) is out and will miss the next three to six weeks recovering from the surgery.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (back) is listed as doubtful after being held out of practice all week.

Bears KR Devin Hester (ribs) is questionable after being limited in practice Thursday and Friday, and will be a game-time decision.

Jets K Mike Nugent (right thigh) is once again out, keeping Jay Feely off the unemployment line for at least one more week.

By David Ferris

Batters

BUY

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: He put things together nicely over the final third of the year (.326, seven homers, 11 steals, .500 slugging), and it came with a nifty screen because the Nationals don't offer a lot of fantasy buzz. Here's the cheapest 20-20 player on the board next year, and you can probably get a decent buy on his running mate, Elijah Dukes, as well.

SELL

Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies: If there's even a 15-percent chance of him being traded this winter, you probably want to beat them to the punch and move him (at full sticker) in a keeper league. Holliday's fantasy value comes from being a dynamic player at home (.357/.423/.645) and an ordinary guy at sea level (.280/.348/.455). His 28 steals from 2008 probably won't repeat; he averaged 12 a year the previous three seasons, and he's approaching the point in his career where running won't be worth the physical toll it takes on his body. This isn't a call to dump Holliday on a whim, but it's a good time to explore just what the market is - before his environment changes significantly.

HOLD

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies: He's ordinary at best against right-handed pitching, but there's otherwise a lot to like here: a patient approach at the plate, legitimate power (23 homers in 408 at-bats) and a keen sense on the bases (19 steals in 20 attempts). The Phillies plugged Werth into a key batting spot for the stretch run in 2008, and it seems that they're ready to finally give him an everyday spot from the jump in 2009.

Felipe Lopez, Utility, Cardinals: Tony La Russa loves have a few rovers on his roster, guys he can slot all over the diamond, and the versatile Lopez fits that bill (you can play him at six positions, essentially). Lopez finished the year on a mad run (.372 over the final month) and should be in the team's plans for 2009.

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: He had a surprising dip in production against left-handed pitching, but otherwise his breakthrough year validated everything we liked in this kid from the moment he hit the bigs in 2006. He's capable of being a five-category player for us into the next decade, so long as the Dodgers give him his everyday spot in March and leave him alone. Given the way Ethier uses the entire park and adjusts to off-speed pitching, a batting title isn't out of the question down the road.

Pitchers

BUY

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates: Roto players are going to run from his 2008 nightmare, but it wasn't as bad as it looked; Snell's ERA came in almost a full run higher than the peripherals suggest, and the league was obscenely lucky against him on balls in play (.364 average). Snell's strikeout numbers took a modest dip, but nothing too crazy; if he can sharpen his delivery and rebuild his confidence quickly in spring training, here's a major profit player to target, for peanuts, at the tail end of your draft.

SELL

Chad Qualls, RP, Diamondbacks: He's already endorsed as the clubhouse leader to close next year in Arizona, which means now is the best time to sell him in a keeper league. The Snakes aren't going to re-sign Brandon Lyon, but other challengers to the throne will be brought in. The smart play is to bet on volatility and hedge against a journeyman like Qualls, who's unlikely to repeat his startling finish to 2008 (the best stretch of his career).

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: Young pitchers draw a lot of buzz and generally make terrible investments after their freshman year. Kershaw will need to be great right out of the box to justify what people will pay for him next March; there's no need to be a heavy scout on this one: Simple, contrarian logic will point you to the proper play.

HOLD

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: The casual player will see the full stat package and blow off Harang, but we like the rally we saw down the stretch, when he was finally healthy again (2.39 ERA over his last seven starts). He's got a good chance to do his 16-win, 200-strikeout thing again next year -- and you'll get it for an affordable price.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases), and these ranks are aimed at the 2009 season.

* = check status

Next Update: March 2009

First Base/DH
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Ryan Howard, Phillies
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. *Mark Teixeira, Free Agent
NOTE: A sure bet, wherever he lands.
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. David Ortiz, Red Sox
9. Derrek Lee, Cubs
10. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
11. Carlos Pena, Rays
12. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
13. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
14. Joey Votto, Reds
NOTE: Second-half surge flies under radar.
15. James Loney, Dodgers
16. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Don't pay for a career year.
17. Paul Konerko, White Sox
18. Billy Butler, Royals
NOTE: He's legit but there's gridlock here.
19. Carlos Delgado, Mets
20. Chris Davis, Rangers
21. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
22. Casey Kotchman, Braves
23. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
24. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
25. Jason Giambi, Yankees
26. Daric Barton, Athletics
27. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
28. Ryan Garko, Indians
29. *Todd Helton, Rockies
NOTE: Back surgery on the way.
30. Kevin Millar, Orioles
31. Dan Johnson, Rays
32. Kendry Morales, Angels
33. Dmitri Young, Nationals
34. Ryan Shealy, Royals

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NOTE: Could be overpriced in east-coast leagues.
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
7. Dan Uggla, Marlins
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
10. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
11. Kelly Johnson, Braves
12. Jose Lopez, Mariners
NOTE: A Seattle bat that panned out.
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
14. Placido Polanco, Tigers
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. *Mark Ellis, Free Agent
NOTE: Injuries masked his true value in 2008.
18. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
19. Kazuo Matsui, Astros
20. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
21. Alexi Casilla, Twins
22. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
23. Felipe Lopez, Cardinals
24. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
25. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
26. Clint Barmes, Rockies
27. Jerry Hairston, Reds
28. Jeff Baker, Rockies
29. Eugenio Velez, Giants
30. Alberto Collaspo, Royals
31. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
32. Ray Durham, Brewers
33. Matt Antonelli, Padres
34. Luis Castillo, Mets
NOTE: Looks like the end of the line, despite the three years left on his deal.

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Michael Young, Rangers
7. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Came on like gangbusters down the stretch.
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
12. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Yunel Escobar, Braves
15. Mike Aviles, Royals
NOTE: Late bloomer looks legit to us.
16. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
19. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
20. Jason Bartlett, Rays
21. *Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
NOTE: Looks ready to push Lugo aside.
22. Khalil Greene, Padres
23. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
24. Erick Aybar, Angels
25. Brendan Harris, Twins
26. Maicer Izturis, Angels
27. Emmanuel Burriss, Giants
28. *Julio Lugo, Pirates
29. Alex Gonzalez, Reds
30. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers

Third base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
4. Evan Longoria, Rays
5. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Skills remain, but pounding adds up.
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. Alex Gordon, Royals
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
NOTE: Breakthrough year on the way.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
13. Hank Blalock, Rangers
14. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
15. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
16. Ian Stewart, Rockies
NOTE: Limped to finish, but still a lot to like here.
17. *Adrian Beltre, Mariners
NOTE: Decent production despite nagging injuries.
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
20. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
21. Joe Crede, White Sox
22. Casey Blake, Dodgers
23. Omar Infante, Braves
24. Mat Gamel, Brewers
25. Josh Fields, White Sox
26. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
27. Andy Marte, Indians
28. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Really needs a change of scenery.
29. Brandon Wood, Angels
30. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
31. Eric Chavez, Athletics
32. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
33. Pedro Feliz, Phillies

Outfield
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers
2. Grady Sizemore, Indians
3. *Matt Holliday, Rockies
NOTE: How aggressively will they shop him?
4. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
5. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
8. Carlos Lee, Astros
9. Carl Crawford, Rays
NOTE: One of 2008's biggest flops.
10. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
11. *Carlos Quentin, White Sox
12. B.J. Upton, Rays
13. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
14. Jason Bay, Red Sox
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Manny Ramirez, Free Agent
17. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: More consistency would be appreciated.
19. Corey Hart, Brewers
NOTE: Stat-stuffer still under the radar.
20. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
21. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
22. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
23. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
24. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: His breakout was more legit than most realize.
25. Hunter Pence, Astros
26. Torii Hunter, Angels
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
29. Jay Bruce, Reds
30. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: A 30-30 year waiting to happen.
31. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Took off when Manny arrived.
32. Shane Victorino, Phillies
33. Milton Bradley, Rangers
34. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
35. Johnny Damon, Yankees
36. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
37. Delmon Young, Twins
38. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
39. Xavier Nady, Yankees
40. Nick Swisher, White Sox
NOTE: Drop-off had a fluky element to it.
41. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
42. Jayson Werth, Phillies
43. *Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
44. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
45. Pat Burrell, Phillies
46. Randy Winn, Giants
47. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
48. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
49. Denard Span, Twins
NOTE: Deserves to keep leadoff gig.
50. Adam Jones, Orioles
51. Mike Cameron, Brewers
52. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
53. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
54. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
55. Aaron Rowand, Giants
56. Jack Cust, Athletics
57. Chase Headley, Padres
58. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
59. David DeJesus, Royals
60. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: One-trick pony, but he does it well.
61. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
62. Carlos Gomez, Twins
63. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
64. Fred Lewis, Giants
55. *Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Probably on the move.
66. Ken Griffey, White Sox
67. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
68. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
69. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
70. Mark Teahen, Royals
71. Travis Buck, Athletics
72. Jason Kubel, Twins
73. Jose Guillen, Royals
74. Ryan Church, Mets
75. Rocco Baldelli, Rays
76. Marcus Thames, Tigers
77. Nate Schierholtz, Giants
78. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
NOTE: Will get shot at CF job.
79. Josh Willingham, Marlins
80. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
81. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
82. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
83. Luke Scott, Orioles
NOTE: Legit power, but has platoon look.
84. Juan Rivera, Angels
85. David Murphy, Rangers
86. Garret Anderson, Angels
87. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
88. Wladimir Balentien, Mariners
89. Brian Giles, Padres
90. Matt LaPorta, Indians
91. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
92. Matt Joyce, Tigers
93. Reed Johnson, Cubs
94. David Murphy, Mets
95. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
96. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
NOTE: Bat speed looks all but gone.
97. Ben Francisco, Indians
98. Joey Gathright, Royals
99. Jody Gerut, Padres
100. Austin Kearns, Nationals
101. Steve Pearce, Pirates
102. Jim Edmonds, Padres
103. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
104. John Bowker, Giants
105. Gary Matthews, Angels

Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Joe Mauer, Twins
4. Victor Martinez, Indians
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
7. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
8. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
9. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
10. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
NOTE: He's forced his way into their plans.
11. Bengie Molina, Giants
12. Dioner Navarro, Rays
13. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
14. Jeff Clement, Mariners
15. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
16. Gerald Laird, Rangers
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: No longer matches the name brand.
19. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
20. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
21. Mike Napoli, Angels
NOTE: Plenty of power, but average risk, too.
22. Ivan Rodriguez, Free Agent
23. Brandon Inge, Tigers
24. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
25. Matt Wieters, Orioles
26. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers
27. J.R. Towles, Astros
28. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
29. Josh Bard, Padres
30. Miguel Olivo, Royals
31. Brian Schneider, Mets
32. John Buck, Royals
33. Jeff Mathis, Angels
34. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
35. Chris Coste, Phillies
36. Jason Kendall, Brewers

By Mark P. Stopa

Which NFL game(s) will you be watching as we head into Week 4 of the NFL season? We're all fans first; and for me that means that the 3-0 Bills game is must-see TV. But for fantasy purposes, I'm most intrigued by the Bengals/Browns matchup. The values of many fantasy players hinge on the results. Can Derek Anderson play well and keep his job? Or is it Brady Quinn time in Cleveland? Can Braylon Edwards finally start living up to his draft status, now that he has a good matchup? Or is he becoming a fantasy bust? Is Jamal Lewis done? How about Carson Palmer and Chad Ocho Cinco? Can they get untracked against a bad defense, or will they remain busts?

I suspect that I will have a lot to talk about next week regarding these players. But here are my recommendations based on what I've seen through Week 3.

Upgrades

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys: As the feature back on the NFL's best offense, Barber will continue posting some amazing stats this year. Thirty touchdowns might sound crazy, but it is possible. There is nobody I would not give up for Barber (including the likes of Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson). Quite simply, this is fantasy football's MVP.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: He struggled Sunday, failing to toss a touchdown. However, Rodgers rushed for another touchdown on a goal-line sneak, matching the one he got in Week 1 (along with one that he posted in the preseason). The Packers clearly like calling sneaks on the goal line, so I expect Rodgers to finish with six to eight rushing TDs. Compare that to QBs who don't get any (e.g. Kurt Warner) and you are talking about an extra 36 to 48 fantasy points over the course of a season. If you drafted Rodgers as a backup and have someone like Tony Romo as your starter, move Romo for a top-5 RB or WR.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: I was skeptical of Bush coming into the season, but things have fallen into place for him. Injuries to Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey have left Bush as the focal point of the passing offense, and Bush has responded. He will never post great rushing stats, but with the Saints defense continuing to struggle, I see no reason (barring injury) that Bush won't continue to play like a top-12 fantasy RB or better (in point-per-catch formats).

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: Willie Parker has a knee "sprain" and won't play this week. While the Ravens defense presents an imposing challenge for Mendenhall this week, the fact that Parker was declared "out" so early in the week suggests that his injury is significant. Mendenhall's stock is on the rise -- at least for the next few weeks - given that his team traditionally likes to run the ball and lacks any other serious options in Parker's absence.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans: In what looked like a terrible matchup against a good Titans defense, Slaton posted 116 yards and a TD, prompting Gary Kubiak to name Slaton the Texans' starting running back. Forget about Ahman Green - this is Slaton's job going forward. Slaton is small, so there is injury risk here; but you can say that about any NFL running back.

No Change

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Turner already has two monster fantasy games this year, but both were at home against league doormats (Lions and Chiefs). Turner is still a good running back, but he's not in the "elite" category yet, especially with rookie Matt Ryan starting at QB for the Falcons. If you can get Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis or Frank Gore for Turner, do so.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: His 112 yards receiving and a TD last week were a fluke. Austin is the Cowboys third or fourth receiver and is well behind Marion Barber, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten in the pecking order. In fact, Patrick Crayton, despite his slow start, is also a more desirable fantasy option.

Downgrades

Jaguars passing game: In the first half of last week's game against the Colts, David Garrard had four completions - all to running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The second half was not much different. The Jags could have salted the game away late with a third-and-goal pass, but ran instead, failed to convert and set the stage for Peyton Manning's go-ahead TD. As long as the Jaguars play this conservatively on offense, Garrard and all Jaguars receivers must be downgraded.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: I called Holmes a "no change" a few weeks ago, but it's time to reevaluate. The Steelers' offensive line looked awful last week, Ben Roethlisberger is nicked up, Willie Parker is hurt and Holmes is not getting any red-zone looks. Add it all up and I doubt that Holmes fulfills his preseason expectations.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: The Patriots had a juicy matchup last week, getting to face a Dolphins defense that had just been torched by the Cardinals. Nevertheless, even though Ronnie Brown ran all over the Patriots, forcing them to throw more than they had planned, Moss was missing in action. I suspect that Bill Belichick will spend the Patriots' bye week trying to find ways to get Moss more involved. But given Matt Cassel's lack of a track record, I'm concerned. If I could get a top-20 receiver in a trade for Moss, I'd jump.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio), and these ranks are aimed at the 2009 season.

* = check status

Next Update: March 2009

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: Nasty second half flew under radar.
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
NOTE: Don't sweat unlucky win total.
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. *C.C. Sabathia, Free Agent
NOTE: A lot depends on where he winds up.
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
NOTE: The bext big thing in the NL.
11. Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Stuff isn't as dominant but results still sing.
12. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
13. John Lackey, Angels
14. Scott Kazmir, Rays
15. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
16. Cliff Lee, Indians
17. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
18. Rich Harden, Cubs
19. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
20. Justin Verlander, Tigers
21. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
NOTE: He'll be full price, but worth it.
22. Edinson Volquez, Reds
23. Jon Lester, Red Sox
24. James Shields, Rays
25. Chris Young, Padres
26. Roy Oswalt, Astros
27. *A.J. Burnett, Free Agent
28. Aaron Harang, Reds
29. Josh Johnson, Marlins
30. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Needs more consistency and focus.
31. Matt Garza, Rays
32. Ervin Santana, Angels
33. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
34. Ted Lilly, Cubs
35. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
36. *Ben Sheets, Free Agent
37. John Danks, White Sox
38. *Derek Lowe, Free Agent
39. Kevin Slowey, Twins
40. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
41. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
42. Manny Parra, Brewers
43. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
NOTE: Let's see it again.
44. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
45. Oliver Perez, Mets
46. Zack Greinke, Royals
47. David Price, Rays
48. Johnny Cueto, Reds
49. Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Unreal strikeout potential.
50. Brett Myers, Phillies
51. Brandon Morrow, Mariners
52. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
53. Phil Hughes, Yankees
54. Joe Saunders, Angels
55. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
56. Jered Weaver, Angels
57. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
58. John Maine, Mets
59. Fausto Carmona, Indians
60. Mike Mussina, Yankees
61. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
62. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
63. Pedro Martinez, Mets
64. Chris Volstad, Marlins
65. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
66. Gil Meche, Royals
NOTE: One of most underrated in AL.
67. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
68. Paul Maholm, Pirates
NOTE: Non-buzz market creates discount.
69. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
70. Scott Baker, Twins
71. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
72. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
73. Ian Snell, Pirates
74. Scott Olsen, Marlins
75. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
76. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
77. Brad Penny, Dodgers
78. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
79. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
80. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
81. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
82. Aaron Cook, Rockies
83. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
84. Joe Blanton, Phillies
85. Jon Garland, Angels
86. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
NOTE: Held up better than expected.
87. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
88. *Kenshin Kawakami, Free Agent
89. Kelvim Escobar, Angels
90. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
91. Alfredo Aceves, Yankees
NOTE: Impressive audition down the stretch.
92. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
93. John Lannan, Nationals
94. Jeff Francis, Rockies
95. Edwin Jackson, Rays
96. *John Smoltz, Braves
97. Glen Perkins, Twins
98. *Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
99. Jorge Campillo, Braves
100. Nick Blackburn, Twins
101. Eric Hurley, Rangers
102. Anthony Reyes, Indians
103. Sean Gallagher, Athletics
104. Randy Wolf, Astros

Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Francisco Rodriguez, Free Agent
NOTE: Timing makes him obscenely wealthy.
5. Brad Lidge, Phillies
6. *Joakim Soria, Royals
7. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
8. J.J. Putz, Mariners
9. Jose Valverde, Astros
10. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Matt Capps, Pirates
13. Kerry Wood, Cubs
14. Brian Wilson, Giants
15. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
NOTE: It's his job to lose.
16. Frank Francisco, Rangers
17. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
18. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
19. *Trevor Hoffman, Padres
20. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
NOTE: Winter-book favorite to take job.
21. *Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
22. George Sherrill, Orioles
23. *Huston Street, Athletics
NOTE: A deep group pushing him.
24. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
25. Troy Percival, Rays
26. *Billy Wagner, Mets
27. Heath Bell, Padres
NOTE: It's his job when Hoffman retires.
28. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
NOTE: Beware the age, and elbow problems.
29. Joey Devine, Athletics
30. Chris Perez, Cardinals
31. Jose Arredondo, Angels
NOTE: Is he ready when K-Rod leaves?
32. Jensen Lewis, Indians
33. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
34. Manny Corpas, Rockies
35. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
36. Salomon Torres, Brewers
NOTE: They know they need someone better.
37. Scot Shields, Angels
38. Dan Wheeler, Rays
39. Grant Balfour, Rays
40. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
41. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
42. *Brandon Lyon, Free Agent
NOTE: Maybe he'll get a Gagne parachute.
43. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
44. Luis Ayala, Mets
45. Rafael Perez, Indians
46. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
47. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
48. *Jason Isringhausen, Free Agent
49. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
50. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
51. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
52. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
53. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
54. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
55. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
56. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
57. Eric Gagne, Brewers

By Chad Lawton

Next Updated: 9/27

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tony Romo, DAL vs. WAS
2. Jay Cutler, DEN at KC
3. Philip Rivers, SD at OAK
NOTE: He's driving the offense now.
4. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF at NO
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB at TB
6. Donovan McNabb, PHI at CHI
7. Drew Brees, NO vs. SF
NOTE: He's done it with scraps before.
8. Kurt Warner, ARI at NYJ
9. Carson Palmer, CIN vs. CLE
10. Trent Edwards, BUF at STL
11. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. ATL
12. *Brett Favre, NYJ vs. ARI
13. Jason Campbell, WAS at DAL
14. Brian Griese, TB vs. GB
15. David Garrard, JAC vs. HOU
16. *Derek Anderson, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Last call for his job.
17. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. BAL
18. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. MIN
19. Matt Schaub, HOU at JAC
20. Damon Huard, KC vs. DEN
NOTE: Gives them a shot; Thigpen doesn't.
21. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. SD
22. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. PHI
23. Trent Green, STL vs. BUF
24. Matt Ryan, ATL at CAR
25. Gus Frerotte, MIN at TEN
26. Joe Flacco, BAL at PIT
27. Brady Quinn, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Figure on him starting, sooner or later.
28. Sage Rosenfels, HOU at JAC

Running Back
1. Marion Barber, DAL vs. WAS
2. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at STL
3. Frank Gore, SF at NO
4. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at OAK
5. Reggie Bush, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Receiving skills needed with others out.
6. Clinton Portis, WAS at DAL
7. Matt Forte, CHI vs. PHI
8. Larry Johnson, KC vs. DEN
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. HOU
NOTE: Got off the skids last week.
10. Michael Turner, ATL at CAR
11. Jamal Lewis, CLE at CIN
12. *Adrian Peterson, MIN at TEN
13. Steve Slaton, HOU at JAC
NOTE: Undersized, but might be thick enough.
14. Chris Perry, CIN vs. CLE
15. *Steven Jackson, STL vs. BUF
16. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. HOU
17. *Darren McFadden, OAK vs. SD
18. Earnest Graham, TB vs. GB
19. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. ARI
20. *Correll Buckhalter, PHI at CHI
21. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. ATL
NOTE: Still a No. 2, but will get scoring carries.
22. Selvin Young, DEN at KC
23. *Ryan Grant, GB at TB
24. Edgerrin James, ARI at NYJ
25. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. MIN
26. Michael Bush, OAK vs. SD
27. Willis McGahee, BAL at PIT
28. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. BAL
NOTE: Steps in for injured Parker, tricky matchup.
29. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. ATL
30. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Trusted around the goal line.
31. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at CHI
32. LenDale White, TEN vs. MIN
33. Jerious Norwood, ATL at CAR
34. Tim Hightower, ARI at NYJ
35. Le'Ron McClain, BAL at PIT
36. Felix Jones, DAL vs. WAS
37. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. GB
38. Andre Hall, DEN at KC
39. Darren Sproles, SD at OAK
40. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. DEN
41. Chester Taylor, MIN at TEN
42. Brandon Jackson, GB at TB
43. Michael Pittman, DEN at KC
NOTE: Their designated scorer.
44. Lorenzo Booker, PHI at CHI
45. Fred Jackson, BUF at STL
46. Kenny Watson, CIN vs. CLE
47. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. ARI
48. Jerome Harrison, CLE at CIN
49. Ladell Betts, WAS at DAL
50. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. BAL
51. Chris Taylor, HOU at JAC
52. Ray Rice, BAL at PIT
NOTE: McClain emergence kills his value.
53. Jason Wright, CLE at CIN
54. Garrett Wolfe, CHI vs. PHI
55. Jason McKie, CHI vs. PHI

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN at KC
2. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. WAS
3. Steve Smith, CAR vs. ATL
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at NYJ
5. Greg Jennings, GB at TB
6. Anquan Boldin, ARI at NYJ
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. CLE
NOTE: Welcome to the 2009 season.
8. Andre Johnson, HOU at JAC
9. Santana Moss, WAS at DAL
10. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Doing it 20-to-20, needs goal-line work.
11. Lee Evans, BUF at STL
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. DEN
13. Chris Chambers, SD at OAK
14. Donald Driver, GB at TB
15. DeSean Jackson, PHI at CHI
16. Roddy White, ATL at CAR
17. *Braylon Edwards, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Limited in Wednesday's workout.
18. Vincent Jackson, SD at OAK
19. Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. PHI
NOTE: Abused Tampa secondary last week.
20. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. BAL
21. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. ARI
22. Torry Holt, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: It's hard to trust this offense.
23. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. GB
24. Hines Ward, PIT vs. BAL
25. Bryant Johnson, SF at NO
26. *Bernard Berrian, MIN at TEN
27. Eddie Royal, DEN at KC
28. Chad Johnson, CIN vs. CLE
29. Isaac Bruce, SF at NO
30. *Justin Gage, TEN vs. MIN
31. Derrick Mason, BAL at PIT
32. Josh Reed, BUF at STL
33. *Lance Moore, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Might step up with others hurt.
34. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. GB
35. Matt Jones, JAC vs. HOU
36. *Robert Meachem, NO vs. SF
37. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at DAL
38. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. MIN
39. Craig Davis, SD at OAK
40. Kevin Walter, HOU at JAC
41. Javon Walker, OAK vs. SD
42. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. WAS
43. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Hey, he keeps scoring.
44. Miles Austin, DAL vs. WAS
45. Hank Baskett, PHI at CHI
46. Michael Jenkins, ATL at CAR
47. Mark Clayton, BAL at PIT
48. Devery Henderson, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Just a one-trick pony.
49. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. HOU
50. Antonio Chatman, CIN vs. CLE
51. Bobby Wade, MIN at TEN
52. *Jordy Nelson, GB at TB
53. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. ATL
54. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. SD
55. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. ATL
56. Devard Darling, KC vs. DEN
57. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. SD
58. *Reggie Brown, PHI at CHI
59. Greg Lewis, PHI at CHI
60. James Hardy, BUF at STL
NOTE: More reps with Parrish hurt.
61. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. PHI
62. *Sidney Rice, MIN at TEN
63. *David Patten, NO vs. SF
64. *Jerry Porter, JAC vs. HOU
65. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. MIN
66. Steve Breaston, ARI at NYJ
67. *Donte Stallworth, CLE at CIN
68. Devin Thomas, WAS at DAL
69. Donnie Avery, STL vs. BUF
70. Josh Cribbs, CLE at CIN
71. Ashley Lelie, OAK vs. SD
72. *Joey Galloway, TB vs. GB
NOTE: Very iffy again this week.

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. WAS
2. Antonio Gates, SD at OAK
3. Chris Cooley, WAS at DAL
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. DEN
5. Kellen Winslow, CLE at CIN
6. Tony Scheffler, DEN at KC
NOTE: Tied to the right offense.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU at JAC
8. Donald Lee, GB at TB
9. Vernon Davis, SF at NO
NOTE: Leaves yards on the table every week.
10. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. GB
11. Heath Miller, PIT vs. BAL
12. Robert Royal, BUF at STL
13. Zach Miller, OAK vs. SD
14. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. MIN
15. Todd Heap, BAL at PIT
16. Randy McMichael, STL vs. BUF
17. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. MIN
NOTE: Just about unusable at this point.
18. Billy Miller, NO vs. SF
19. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. ATL
20. Reggie Kelly, CIN vs. CLE
21. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at TEN
22. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. HOU
23. Ben Patrick, ARI at NYJ
24. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Four catches in the SD loss.
25. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. PHI
26. Jeff King, CAR vs. ATL
27. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. PHI
28. Delanie Walker, SF at NO
29. Chris Baker, NYJ vs. ARI
29. *L.J. Smith, PHI at CHI

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD at OAK
NOTE: They trust him on long kicks, too.
2. Nick Folk, DAL vs. WAS
3. Rian Lindell, BUF at STL
4. Matt Prater, DEN at KC
5. John Kasay, CAR vs. ATL
6. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. HOU
7. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. SF
8. David Akers, PHI at CHI
9. Mason Crosby, GB at TB
10. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. CLE
11. Ryan Longwell, MIN at TEN
12. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. MIN
13. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. BAL
14. Neil Rackers, ARI at NYJ
NOTE: Might be on thin ice.
15. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. ARI
16. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. PHI
17. *Matt Bryant, TB vs. GB
18. Joe Nedney, SF at NO
19. Phil Dawson, CLE at CIN
20. Kris Brown, HOU at JAC
21. Matt Stover, BAL at PIT
22. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. SD
23. Jason Elam, ATL at CAR
24. Shaun Suisham, WAS at DAL
25. Josh Brown, STL vs. BUF
26. Nick Novak, KC vs. DEN

Defense
1. Dallas vs. Washington
NOTE: They'll find a way to confuse Campbell.
2. Philadelphia at Chicago
3. Buffalo at St. Louis
4. Tennessee vs. Minnesota
5. Carolina vs. Atlanta
6. Baltimore at Pittsburgh
7. Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
8. Denver at Kansas City
NOTE: Gang up on the weak club.
9. Chicago vs. Philadelphia
10. San Diego at Oakland
11. Jacksonville vs. Houston
12. Minnesota at Tennessee
13. Green Bay at Tampa Bay
14. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
15. New Orleans vs. San Francisco
16. Cleveland at Cincinnati
17. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
18. Houston at Jacksonville
19. Atlanta at Carolina
20. Arizona at New York Jets
NOTE: They've faded the last two weeks.
21. New York Jets vs. Arizona
22. Oakland vs. San Diego
23. San Francisco at New Orleans
24. Washington at Dallas
25. Kansas City vs. Denver
26. St. Louis vs. Buffalo

By Michael Salfino

Last year at this time, we predicted that a number of 2007's most fortunate few would have their organizations scratching their heads in 2008.

Let's first look at how we did on those predictions before stepping back into the batter's box and acting like the apocryphal Babe Ruth as we point our finger to 2009 and try to call our shot with the luckiest hitters due for a fall.

Last week, we noted how a solid majority of players (more than 70 percent) perform worse each year than the prior year. I know it defies our mathematical sense given that statistics are basically static from year to year. But you have to remember that the really good players almost always get worse and the ones who weren't so good often are out of the league or, if they keep their jobs, at least not significantly better. And, of course, there are a fair number of new players each year.

This insight informed my grading on last week's unlucky players, making it more curvy. Five hits and two misses in predicting players to significantly improve is much better than it seems to those who don't know that most players decline.

Now the wind is at our back, not in our face. So the expectations for accuracy should be greater.

We predicted that Magglio Ordonez would hit about .310, not .425, with runners in scoring position (RISP), and that his balls in play (BIP) average would be about average for him (.320). Those numbers are .338 and .311, respectively. Let's call that a single on a batting practice fastball.

Carlos Pena was predicted to hit homers on 20 percent of fly balls, not the 29 percent of 2007. That means we expected 28 homers, not 46. He's hit 31 with a homer rate of about 19 percent. He has hit significantly more fly balls, but that's still a ringing double.

We keep the rally going with B.J. Upton and Mike Lowell. Upton hit about .400 last year on balls in play, which we predicted would be closer to .300 (it is, barely, now at .347). We also said the homer rate would decline from about 20 percent of fly balls, and it did, to an unlucky 6.8 percent. Lowell's .356 with RISP was deemed a joke in '07. This year, predictably, it was .288. Goodbye, RBI.

Our first whiff was Oliver Perez when we went off the stat reservation and looked at unearned runs, which obviously are unearned for a reason. The predicted increase in ERA never materialized.

For Fausto Carmona, we predicted a significantly higher BIP allowed, given his groundball tendencies. While his ERA soared, it was more for a significantly worse K/BB ratio. So we were right for the wrong reason, which is, at best, a long foul ball.

But we plate some runs with Brad Penny and Mark Buehrle. Though Penny was hurt, his homer rate well more than doubled, as we predicted. And Buehrle, who stranded 76 percent of base runners in '07, crashed back right to average, as forecasted (70 percent, which means lots more runs).

I feel like Scrooge laughing over the coal in everyone's Christmas stockings. And all these calls seem so obvious in hindsight. But we at least don't miss the easy stuff. Let's pick some more low-hanging fruit with lucky hitters to avoid in '09.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: He's at .413 with RISP (.252 last year). Maybe he found the Fountain of Clutch. I'm less confident that his BIP average will regress, because Kinsler's line-drive rate of 24 percent is 10th best.

Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals: Even if we stipulate his power as real, he had the lowest percentage of grounders in the game, yet still hit .337 on BIP. If you take out homers, only about 11 percent of fly balls are hits. Of the 12 guys with the fewest grounders, only two are well above average on BIP: Ludwick and Kinsler.

Jason Bay, OF, Red Sox: Fenway is a magic elixir for hitters. But predicted OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), which looks at where balls are hit, says Bay's Red Sox number should be .791, not .919.

Felipe Lopez, 2B, Cardinals: We're reaching for partial-year players because there just weren't that many lucky hitters this year, given scoring is down about 4 percent. Lopez should have registered a .731 OPS for the Cardinals, not .889.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox: Pick your reason. The rate of homers on fly balls has about doubled. His.368 with RISP makes him this year's Lowell.

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: There's not the uptick in line-drive rate we'd expect with such a surge in average on BIP (.346). He seems unlucky in homer rate, but more than makes up for it with average with RISP (.346). His predicted OPS is merely a solid .926, not the sterling .998 actual.

By Michael Salfino

Every team except the Ravens and the Texans has played three games, which seems trifling but is about 20 percent of the season.

Critical mass is building with key stats. We don't have full confidence until all clubs have at least four games in the books. But we're close enough now to highlight those that are likely significantly better or worse than forecasted in August.

Again, the most important stat in the NFL that you don't hear enough about (except here) is net yards per pass attempt (YPA), which factors in sacks. But this week, let's also examine net red-zone possessions for the first time in 2008.

Teams entered Week Three 27-4 when they had the higher YPA than their opponent. But this was about as bad a week as you'll ever see for YPA, with five teams with an edge here losing -- the Raiders, the Bears, the Cardinals, the Saints and the Jaguars. The Broncos, amazingly, have won two games in a row despite being out-YPA'ed. On a neutral field, there's about a 4-percent chance of that happening. At home, like the Broncos have been, the odds go up a bit, but not that much.

But still, 38-9 for the better passing teams is about exactly the .800 win percentage we'd expect based on historical YPA data.

When you finish a season plus-two yards, subtracting the YPA you gain from what you allow, you're a legitimate championship contender and just about guaranteed a ticket to the postseason dance. Eight teams currently make that cut, but Baltimore has played only two games, so we toss them out, leaving, in order, the Chargers, the 49ers, the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Bills, the Titans and the Cardinals. Early YPA returns say these teams are very likely to make the playoffs.

On the flip side, negative two yards or more means you can start thinking about the NFL Draft come Election Day. YPA laggards, in order, are the Browns, the Rams, the Lions, the Chiefs, the Texans (just two games) and the Jaguars. Jacksonville had to dominate all other facets to squeak out a win at Indy and, YPA says, remains very overrated.

Occam's Razor guides our stat analysis: The simplest solution is generally the best. All you really need is YPA. But net red-zone possessions is another great, simple team stat that gets overlooked. Not red-zone efficiency, which, while important, is overrated -- just how many times you get inside the 20 versus how many times you allow the opposition there. Net red-zone possession leaders are, in order, the Eagles, the Cardinals and the Giants (all plus-six or better). The Broncos are plus-four, which may explain their death-defying net-YPA.

Conversely, the Chargers are minus-five red-zone possessions, a check against their high-flying net-YPA. This red-zone stat also says to be wary of the Saints (minus-seven) and the Titans (minus-four). But in the early going, there's so much more YPA data, which factors in every pass. So defer to that now and, really, always.

Now let's make some related player recommendations.

Buy

Michael Pittman, RB, Broncos: Denver is living in the red zone with 15 possessions, and Pittman (four TDs) is the man near the goal line.

Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: Arizona has 13 red-zone possessions and this is a good time to get Hightower, as he didn't score in Week 3.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Forget about 2007 and buy, buy, buy. He's No. 1 in YPA. No one could have foreseen LaDainian Tomlinson's turf toe and the loss of Shawne Merriman crippling their pass defense back in August. But this is the new reality.

J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: This year's Derek Anderson. Smash through the buying window if you must.

Hold

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Strictly a numbers play here. The Jets have been in the red zone 12 times. So Jones should get more than his fair share of easy scoring opportunities. I'm skeptical of his ability to convert.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Give him two more weeks. Schaub's had a very tough schedule (at Pittsburgh, at Tennessee and at Jacksonville this week). He doesn't get his first home game until Week 5 (Colts). Two of his picks last week were late, desperation throws. But you'd better have a Plan B.

Sell

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: Just two red-zone possessions in three weeks for the Rams, whose bad defense and rotten offensive line create a terrible setup for Jackson and owners who bought his talent while ignoring his environment.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Lions: The Lions bailed on Kevin Smith very fast, but big changes are brewing in Detroit if the owner listens to his son. Johnson's solid Week 3 was a garbage-time fluke.

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Be a trader if he manages to save his job this week against the Bengals. The preseason price seemed fair because of the good setup (stud receivers; lousy defense; old, broken-down runner). But backup QBs like former No. 1 pick Brady Quinn are popular enough to run for mayor in towns with lousy teams.

By Michael Salfino

NFL Week 3 featured more high scores and fantastic finishes, along with probably the best gadget package of plays in NFL history. Let's review some highlights in our latest Scouting Notebook.

The Pittsburgh-Philly game should have carried a parental advisory, that's how savagely Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was beaten by Eagles blitzes. In the first half, he was creamed five times in six straight dropbacks, and it didn't get any better from there.

But the bigger surprise attack was unleashed by the Dolphins against Bill Belichick and the Patriots in their own backyard. Five TDs by Ronnie Brown later, including one TD pass - all with QB Chad Pennington flanked wide as a receiver - and the Dolphins had not only an upset but a total undressing of a Patriots team that had won 21 consecutive regular-season games.

Miami kept going back to the well and the Patriots actually looked more confused the more they saw that look. You rarely see a team try a trick play like that more than a couple of times. And when they do, it usually yields diminishing returns.

The Patriots knew what was coming (except for the one time Brown threw), but looked like they were stuck in drying cement. And who could possibly have known that Brown was a lefty thrower when running left on the play? Not me. And obviously not the Patriots.

Interestingly, a more traditional outcome occurred when the Falcons tried a similar look, sans the QB being flanked wide, with RB Jerious Norwood taking the shotgun snaps. A short gain the first time was quickly followed by an eight-yard loss.

While you can chalk the Patriots' defensive ineptitude to chicanery, the Pats suddenly pop-gun offense averaged less than seven yards per completion with Matt Cassel at QB. The training wheels are rightfully affixed, considering how Cassel overlooked a wide open TE David Thomas for an easy long TD on a Dolphin blitz and instead showed skittishness in the pocket by scrambling before fumbling.

Cassel has to learn to just throw it up to No. 84 at times like Tom Brady did.

Game ball to Matt Hassselbeck, who played with efficiency and poise despite losing his top six receivers to injury. Hasselbeck still has some upside once he begins getting starters back after the Week 4 bye.

Giants TE Kevin Boss had been a monster in the running game, mauling various linebackers and even defensive ends. Nice to see him rewarded with a game-saving TD catch against a surprisingly feisty Bengals defense that took Plaxico Burress out of the contest prior to overtime.

Burress seemed to have a TD via a miraculous piece of contortion in the back of the end zone, but the Giants refused to throw the challenge flag with more than three minutes left in the first half. Last year, 37 percent of plays were overturned, a record high. The Giants were 4 for 11; so you think they'd be more aggressive.

Michael Turner has impressed the Falcons with his ability to break and slip tackles and showed he can bowl over defenders, too, on his three-TD runs. But it's still baby steps for Matt Ryan, who did show an NFL arm on a bomb to Roddy White that traveled about 60 air yards.

Always keep an eye on rookies like the Cardinals' Tim Hightower, who are entrusted as third-down backs, proving his coaches think he's smart and tough enough to pick up blitzers.

Earnest Graham was running efficiently until the 12-carry, 16-yard nightmare versus Chicago, which accounts for every gap with eight men in the box. The Bears dared Brian Griese to throw and he did, 67 times for 407 yards in the comeback win.

JaMarcus Russell showed unbelievable arm strength on the skinny post to Johnnie Lee Higgins that should have won the game in Buffalo. Any other QB but Jay Cutler and that ball is knocked down before it touched the receiver's hands.

There's a great setup in Denver for Cutler. He's got an uncoverable receiver in Brandon Marshall, no reliable running back, a master offensive architect (Mike Shanahan) and a defense atrocious versus the pass in two straight home games - a harbinger of more shootouts.

The Saints showed teams can complete a long pass and get everyone set for the clock-killing spike in nine seconds. I remember a few years ago, the expectation was about 14 to 18 seconds. It's like watching a pit stop in auto racing.

Lance Moore (7 catches, 78 yards) found the holes in the zone repeatedly for Drew Brees and the Saints, looking as crafty on third downs as former Jet Wayne Chrebet, who was similarly short and athletically challenged.

That Fox shot behind the kicker from field level makes every 40-yard-plus field goal seem like a million miles away. You expect a miss from that perspective.

Terrell Owens showed unbelievable hustle as a defender on a pick and as a blocker on Felix Jones' long TD run Sunday night. Note how he not only caught but appeared ready to pass Jones, reported to be the NFL's fastest back.

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

Struggling Bengals QB Carson Palmer (ankle) participated fully in practice all week and is listed as probable for a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champion Giants on Sunday. He's searching for his first touchdown toss of the young season.

Ravens QB Troy Smith (illness) is once again out this week, meaning rookie Joe Flacco gets the start against the Browns.

Titans QB Vince Young (knee, hamstring) is out this weekend, making Kerry Collins the starter once again in Week 3. Coach Jeff Fisher said Collins would remain the starter as long as the Titans are winning games, so Young could remain on the sidelines even after he returns from injury.

Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle (right shoulder) is listed as out for Sunday, clearing the way for Tyler Thigpen to get his first NFL start - the third QB the Chiefs have started in three games.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (right shoulder) practiced fully all week and is listed as probable versus an Eagles secondary coming off a Monday night torching at the hands of the Cowboys.

Running Backs

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (hamstring) is questionable this Sunday after only participating on a limited basis at practice on Friday. He'll likely play this week, but could have his touches scaled back in favor of Chester Taylor.

Browns RB Jamal Lewis (ankle) is listed as probable after practicing all week on a limited basis. The Browns, already banged up at WR, will rely heavily on Lewis this week despite his slow start to the year.

Often injured Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) is once again listed as doubtful after being held out of practice all week. Rookie RB Steve Slaton should get a bulk of the touches versus the tough Titans, not a good matchup for any running back.

The Jaguars tandem of RB Fred Taylor (toe) and Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) both practiced fully Friday and are listed as probable for Sunday against the Colts, yielding 180 yards per game on the ground.

The Patriots look to be without RB LaMont Jordan (foot); he's listed as doubtful after not practicing all week. Even worse, RB Laurence Maroney (shoulder) was held out of practice most of the week and only practiced on a limited basis Friday, making him questionable for Sunday. There is a very good chance he won't even touch the ball, making Sammy Morris a very attractive play against a terrible Miami defense.

The Raiders will most likely be without RB Justin Fargas (groin) this weekend after his absence from practice all week. Teammate Darren McFadden (toe) would have picked up the bulk of the carries, but he's only about 70 percent despite being listed as probable for this weekend. Look for RB Michael Bush to be the main beneficiary this weekend in the Raiders' run-heavy offense.

Seahawks RB Maurice Morris (knee) is out this week, meaning Julius Jones will once again carry the load this weekend against the struggling Rams.

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson (toe) was held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday before practicing on a limited basis Friday, and is listed as questionable for Monday night against the Jets. Expect RB Darren Sproles to split carries with LT, and possibly even get the bulk of the load depending upon how Tomlinson practices Saturday.

Wide Receivers

Vikings WR Sidney Rice (knee) is listed as questionable, but is closer to doubtful after only participating on a limited basis Friday in hopes of establishing some chemistry with new Vikings QB Gus Frerotte.

A pair of Browns wideouts, Braylon Edwards (shoulder) and Donte' Stallworth (quadriceps), are both listed as questionable. Edwards was limited in practice this week, and should be starting on Sunday. Stallworth was held out of practice all week and is a good bet to be inactive against the Ravens.

Titans WR Justin Gage (groin) did some light running prior to practice this week, but will be a game-time decision. Brandon Jones would get the start in his place.

The Jaguars duo of Troy Williamson (thigh) and Jerry Porter (hamstring) are once again on the injury report this week. Williamson has already been ruled out, and Porter is closer to "doubtful" after limited participation in practice on Thursday and Friday.

Saints WR Marques Colston (thumb) is again out.

Raiders WR Javon Walker (hamstring) is listed as probable after participating fully in practice on Thursday and Friday. Raiders receivers caught one pass last week.

Eagles WR Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) remains out. Teammate Reggie Brown (hamstring) is probable after putting in a week of full practice.

Rams WR Drew Bennett (foot) remains out this week. The Rams need all the help they can get at this point, and are looking forward to his return in about a month.

The Seahawks receiving unit has been hit hard by injuries to start the year, as WR Bobby Engram (shoulder) is out, and Deion Branch (knee) was limited in practice all week and "doubtful." Even newly signed WR Koren Robinson (knee) is questionable after being limited in practice on Thursday and Friday.

Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway (foot) is once again out this week after not practicing.

Jets WR Laveranues Coles (thigh) again is questionable after being limited in practice. He'll start Monday night, but will need to start putting in more reps on the practice field if he wants to get on the same page as new starting QB Brett Favre.

Other Positions

Giants K Lawrence Tynes (left knee) practiced on a limited basis this week and is questionable, but on schedule to return to the Giants after their Week 4 bye, replacing John Carney.

Ravens TE Todd Heap (wrist) got an extra week to heal courtesy of Hurricane Ike and is listed as probable after fully participating in practice this week.

Cowboys TE Jason Witten (shoulder) practiced without restrictions on Friday and is listed as probable for Sunday night against the Packers.

Bears KR Devin Hester (ribs) is listed as questionable for this weekend after being held out of practice all week

Jets K Mike Nugent (right thigh) is out, giving Jay Feely a job for another week despite badly missing a 31-yarder in the Jets' loss last week versus New England.

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every
10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Update: 9/24

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Sit back, enjoy the ride.
2. Drew Brees, NO at DEN
3. Tony Romo, DAL at GB
4. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DAL
NOTE: Poise of a ten-year veteran.
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. PIT
NOTE: He's a blast if injury doesn't strike.
6. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Showed plenty of moxie in Seattle win.
7. Philip Rivers, SD vs. NYJ
8. Kurt Warner, ARI at WAS
9. Peyton Manning, IND vs. JAC
10. Eli Manning, NYG vs. CIN
11. Jon Kitna, DET at SF
12. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at PHI
NOTE: How bad is the shoulder?
13. Brett Favre, NYJ at SD
NOTE: Time to let him air it out.
14. Jake Delhomme, CAR at MIN
15. Matt Cassel, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: Faces a secondary you can exploit.
16. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. OAK
17. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. ARI
18. Derek Anderson, CLE at BAL
19. Matt Schaub, HOU at TEN
20. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA vs. STL
NOTE: If only he had some targets.
21. Gus Frerotte, MIN vs. CAR
NOTE: Steps in for benched Jackson.
22. Marc Bulger, STL at SEA
NOTE: Pass blocking has been horrible.
23. David Garrard, JAC at IND
24. *Carson Palmer, CIN at NYG
25. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. TB
26. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. HOU
27. Brian Griese, TB at CHI
28. Chad Pennington, MIA at NE
NOTE: Has the brains, not the arm.
29. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. KC
30. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. CLE
31. *Tyler Thigpen, KC at ATL
NOTE: A long year in Kansas City.
32. JaMarcus Russell, OAK at BUF

Running Back
1. Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. PIT
2. Frank Gore, SF vs. DET
3. *Marion Barber, DAL at GB
4. Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. CIN
5. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. OAK
NOTE: Set-up is ideal here.
6. Willie Parker, PIT at PHI
7. Michael Turner, ATL vs. KC
8. Matt Forte, CHI vs. TB
9. Clinton Portis, WAS vs. ARI
10. *Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. CAR
NOTE: Hamstring makes him game-day call.
11. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. HOU
NOTE: Fastest back in the league.
12. Steven Jackson, STL at SEA
13. Julius Jones, SEA vs. STL
NOTE: It's the matchup, not the player.
14. Reggie Bush, NO at DEN
15. Sammy Morris, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: Needed with others hurt.
16. Joseph Addai, IND vs. JAC
17. *Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at IND
18. Earnest Graham, TB at CHI
NOTE: Like the talent, but Dunn steals touches.
19. *Jamal Lewis, CLE at BAL
20. Thomas Jones, NYJ at SD
21. LenDale White, TEN vs. HOU
22. Larry Johnson, KC at ATL
23. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. CLE
24. Darren Sproles, SD vs. NYJ
25. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. NYJ
NOTE: Sit him if you have viable alternatives.
26. *Darren McFadden, OAK at BUF
27. *Ryan Grant, GB vs. DAL
NOTE: Hamstring is hanging around.
28. Kevin Smith, DET at SF
29. Edgerrin James, ARI at WAS
30. *Chester Taylor, MIN vs. CAR
31. Selvin Young, DEN vs. NO
32. Steve Slaton, HOU at TEN
NOTE: Gets start with Green out.
33. Ronnie Brown, MIA at NE
34. Ray Rice, BAL vs. CLE
35. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at MIN
NOTE: Ready to explode, but not this week.
36. *Michael Bush, OAK at BUF
37. Chris Perry, CIN at NYG
38. Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. KC
39. Fred Jackson, BUF vs. OAK
40. Michael Pittman, DEN vs. NO
41. Pierre Thomas, NO at DEN
42. Tim Hightower, ARI at WAS
NOTE: Has a little Marion Barber in him.
43. Felix Jones, DAL at GB
44. Andre Hall, DEN vs. NO
45. *Fred Taylor, JAC at IND
46. Kevin Faulk, NE vs. MIA
47. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. CIN
48. Ricky Williams, MIA at NE
49. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at MIN
50. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. DAL
51. Warrick Dunn, TB at CHI
52. Derrick Ward, NYG vs. CIN
53. Le'Ron McClain, BAL vs. CLE
NOTE: The third mouth to feed.
54. Leon Washington, NYJ at SD
55. *Laurence Maroney, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: How can you trust him?
56. Leonard Weaver, SEA vs. STL
57. Kenny Watson, CIN at NYG
58. Kevin Jones, CHI vs. TB
59. T.J. Duckett, SEA vs. STL
60. Ladell Betts, WAS vs. ARI
61. Rudi Johnson, DET at SF
62. Chris Taylor, HOU at TEN
63. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. DET
64. Jamaal Charles, KC at ATL
65. Kregg Lumpkin, GB vs. DAL
66. Dominic Rhodes, IND vs. JAC
67. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT at PHI
68. *LaMont Jordan, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: Injury makes him too risky.

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL at GB
NOTE: Doesn't look 30-something, does he?
2. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Blanket coverage sometimes isn't enough.
3. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. JAC
4. Plaxico Burress, NYG vs. CIN
NOTE: Meet me in Hawaii.
5. Randy Moss, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: Owned this secondary last year.
6. Calvin Johnson, DET at SF
7. Andre Johnson, HOU at TEN
8. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at WAS
NOTE: Velcro-hands make any ball catchable.
9. Anquan Boldin, ARI at WAS
10. Greg Jennings, GB vs. DAL
11. Steve Smith, CAR at MIN
12. Roy Williams, DET at SF
13. Santonio Holmes, PIT at PHI
14. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at SD
15. Lee Evans, BUF vs. OAK
16. *Braylon Edwards, CLE at BAL
17. Hines Ward, PIT at PHI
18. Santana Moss, WAS vs. ARI
19. Torry Holt, STL at SEA
20. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. PIT
NOTE: Forget the gaffe, appreciate the talent.
21. Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Slot machine paying off.
22. Dwayne Bowe, KC at ATL
23. Chris Chambers, SD vs. NYJ
24. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at NYG
NOTE: Passing game a horror show right now.
25. Wes Welker, NE vs. MIA
26. Donald Driver, GB vs. DAL
27. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. NO
28. Bryant Johnson, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Starting to get comfortable in scheme.
29. Chad Johnson, CIN at NYG
30. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. NYJ
31. Roddy White, ATL vs. KC
32. David Patten, NO at DEN
NOTE: Much-needed with Colston out.
33. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ at SD
34. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Tank isn't empty yet.
35. Antonio Bryant, TB at CHI
36. Matt Jones, JAC at IND
37. Kevin Walter, HOU at TEN
38. Marvin Harrison, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Can't run by anyone anymore.
39. Patrick Crayton, DAL at GB
40. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. CLE
41. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. CLE
42. *Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. ARI
43. Robert Meachem, NO at DEN
NOTE: Scored in first NFL game.
44. Ike Hilliard, TB at CHI
45. Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. TB
46. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at MIN
47. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. CIN
48. Keary Colbert, SEA vs. STL
49. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. PIT
50. James Jones, GB vs. DAL
51. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. HOU
52. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ at SD
53. *Justin Gage, TEN vs. HOU
NOTE: He's legit, but too hurt to use here.
54. Reggie Williams, JAC at IND
55. Josh Reed, BUF vs. OAK
56. Greg Lewis, PHI vs. PIT
57. *Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. CAR
NOTE: Frerotte switch helps, but wait a week.
58. Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. KC
59. Michael Clayton, TB at CHI
60. Ronald Curry, OAK at BUF
61. Devery Henderson, NO at DEN
62. *Steve Breaston, ARI at WAS
NOTE: Special-teams ace and impact No. 3.
63. Shaun McDonald, DET at SF
64. *Javon Walker, OAK at BUF
65. Courtney Taylor, SEA vs. STL
66. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. TB
67. Dennis Northcutt, JAC at IND
68. Ashley Lelie, OAK at BUF
69. James Hardy, BUF vs. OAK
NOTE: Even with the TD, limited snaps.
70. D.J. Hackett, CAR at MIN
71. Arnaz Battle, SF vs. DET
72. Lance Moore, NO at DEN
73. Greg Camarillo, MIA at NE
74. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. HOU
75. Ted Ginn, MIA at NE
NOTE: Second-year spike hasn't happened.
76. *Roscoe Parrish, BUF vs. OAK
77. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. NO
78. *Koren Robinson, SEA vs. STL
NOTE: Shows how desperate they are at the position.
79. Billy McMullen, SEA vs. STL
80. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. CAR
81. Steve Smith, NYG vs. CIN
82. Aundrae Allison, MIN vs. CAR
83. *Jerry Porter, JAC at IND

Tight End
1. *Jason Witten, DAL at GB
NOTE: Monday guts add to the legend.
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE at BAL
3. *Antonio Gates, SD vs. NYJ
4. Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Timing is perfect for a breakout.
5. Jeremy Shockey, NO at DEN
6. Chris Cooley, WAS vs. ARI
7. Dallas Clark, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Good history in this matchup.
8. Tony Gonzalez, KC at ATL
9. John Carlson, SEA vs. STL
10. Heath Miller, PIT at PHI
11. L.J. Smith, PHI vs. PIT
12. Donald Lee, GB vs. DAL
13. Owen Daniels, HOU at TEN
14. Vernon Davis, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Amazing athlete, still figuring out football.
15. Todd Heap, BAL vs. CLE
16. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. TB
17. Randy McMichael, STL at SEA
18. Zach Miller, OAK at BUF
19. Anthony Fasano, MIA at NE
20. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. HOU
21. Dante Rosario, CAR at MIN
22. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. TB
23. David Martin, MIA at NE
24. Robert Royal, BUF vs. OAK
25. Alex Smith, TB at CHI
26. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. HOU
27. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at IND
28. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. CAR
29. Leonard Pope, ARI at WAS
30. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. CIN
31. *David Thomas, NE vs. MIA
32. Chris Baker, NYJ at SD

Kicker
1. *John Carney, NYG vs. CIN
NOTE: Go where the points are.
2. Nick Folk, DAL at GB
3. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. NYJ
4. Matt Prater, DEN vs. NO
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: One Patriot helped by Brady absence.
6. Olindo Mare, SEA vs. STL
7. Rian Lindell, BUF vs. OAK
8. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. CAR
9. Mason Crosby, GB vs. DAL
10. Adam Vinatieri, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Not the guy he was in New England.
11. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. HOU
12. Joe Nedney, SF vs. DET
13. David Akers, PHI vs. PIT
14. Jeff Reed, PIT at PHI
15. Martin Gramatica, NO at DEN
16. John Kasay, CAR at MIN
NOTE: Leg is still there, but tricky assignment.
17. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. TB
18. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. ARI
19. Josh Scobee, JAC at IND
20. Kris Brown, HOU at TEN
21. Matt Stover, BAL vs. CLE
22. Phil Dawson, CLE at BAL
23. Neil Rackers, ARI at WAS
24. Jason Elam, ATL vs. KC
25. Jay Feely, NYJ at SD
26. Jason Hanson, DET at SF
27. Matt Bryant, TB at CHI
28. Josh Brown, STL at SEA
29. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK at BUF
30. Shayne Graham, CIN at NYG
31. Nick Novak, KC at ATL
32. Dan Carpenter, MIA at NE

Defense
1. New York Giants vs. Cincinnati
NOTE: Justin Tuck, you are ridiculous.
2. New England vs. Miami
3. Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
4. Seattle vs. St Louis
NOTE: Still a good play at home.
5. Baltimore vs. Cleveland
6. Buffalo vs. Oakland
7. Tennessee vs. Houston
8. Arizona at Washington
NOTE: Not sold on Campbell yet.
9. Minnesota vs. Carolina
10. Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
11. San Diego vs. New York Jets
12. Carolina at Minnesota
13. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
14. Atlanta vs. Kansas City
NOTE: Mediocre unit but matchup is right.
15. Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
NOTE: Major difference with Sanders out.
16. Dallas at Green Bay
17. Houston at Tennessee
18. Tampa Bay at Chicago
19. San Francisco vs. Detroit
20. Cleveland at Baltimore
21. Green Bay vs. Dallas
22. Jacksonville at Indianapolis
23. Washington vs. Arizona
24. Detroit at San Francisco
25. Denver vs. New Orleans
26. New York Jets at San Diego
27. Oakland at Buffalo
28. Kansas City at Atlanta
29. New Orleans at Denver
30. Miami at New England
31. St Louis at Seattle
32. Cincinnati at New York Giants

By David Ferris

Your work isn't done yet - you still need to get through 10 games before you hoist that trophy and take in the spoils. Keep your eyes on the prize.

Pitchers

BUY

Alfredo Aceves, SP, Yankees: He's had three tidy starts so far (1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, three walks, 12 strikeouts), showing a good fastball and cutter and a couple of other pitches. I'm not afraid of the Orioles this weekend. Aceves also carries relief pitcher eligibility in a lot of leagues, which might help you slide him onto the active roster.

Scott Lewis, SP, Indians: His success is tied more to location than raw stuff - his fastball stops short of the 90s - but after seeing 14 scoreless innings go up on the board, after a superb minor-league campaign at two stops, what's not to like here? Lewis will probably get two more turns with Anthony Reyes down for the season, and I'll recommend both of them.

David Price, SP, Rays: The touted one is finally up, and he'll probably get a start on Tuesday when Tampa Bay has a doubleheader against Baltimore. If nothing else, sidle up to the telly and get a look at why everyone's so excited about the tall lefty. I'm expecting a quality start at minimum, and a dominant splash wouldn't surprise me one bit. The Rays figure to have the AL's best rotation into the next decade if they can keep everyone healthy.

SELL

Armando Galarraga, SP, Tigers: His control has been spotty of late, homers are up, and the Tigers might decide to rest him for the final week, content in Galarraga's progress and seeing no need to expose him to more innings. We're on board with the move; sometimes the long-term plan is the play, especially when you're in a losing season and not playing games of influence (the Royals won't make the playoffs, while the Rays are basically in, one way or another).

Hitters

BUY

Alberto Callaspo, Utility, Royals: He's got no power or speed, so why should you bother? Because he's playing every day, he qualifies at four positions, and he's hitting .333 over the last month (along with a 12-game hitting streak). The perfect swiss army knife for the top of your roster.

SELL

Taylor Teagarden, C, Rangers: It's easy to get carried away over the six homers in just 37 at-bats, but his minor-league profile doesn't support the debut at all, and Ron Washington is still using a backstop platoon (Teagarden has just one at-bat this week since his Monday grand slam). If you're desperate for a homer or two I can justify Teagarden as a flyer in the final week, but don't throw out a summer of modest results in Double-A just because he got off to a hot start in The Show.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: Thumb surgery finally ended his season; he pulled the plug a few days ago and had the procedure Thursday. Most fantasy owners look at Beltre's 2008 haul and come away disappointed (.266, 74 runs, 25 homers, 77 RBIs, 8 steals), but considering the bum shoulder he played through most of the year and other nicks, we should salute the guy for getting through 143 games and posting credible stats.

HOLD

Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: He's swung the bat pretty well since he came off the DL, and his mess of a 2008 season is going to set Gordon up to be a post-hype sleeper all over the map next year. He needs to figure out lefties (they've dominated him all year, .289 OPS) but Gordon is too young and talented to write off so soon. Be a contrarian in March and you'll likely be rewarded.

By Rob Steingall

We conclude the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Season with our final Weekly Planner with advice for the final week and a glance toward 2009.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Ryan Shealy, 1B, Royals: He's been on fire over the past week, blasting five home runs and driving in 10. He is on the road this week against the Tigers and the Twins, which bodes well for his owners, as he's done most of his damage away from Kauffman Stadium (.438 road batting average).

Kevin Millwood, SP, Rangers: Pitching two complete games during the past month qualifies him for workhorse status, and his three wins over that timeframe are quite useful as well. He gets two starts this week against the Athletics and the Angels, clubs he has had good success against in '08. He owns wins over both, a complete game against the Angels, and an ERA of 1.35 against Oakland. He's a fine play during this crucial playoff period.

Bench 'em

Alex Gordon, 1B/3B, Royals: He certainly hasn't lived up to his "post-hype sleeper" status in '08, posting a .254 batting average with only 14 home runs before going down with a torn right hip flexor. It is highly unlikely the time off changed anything, and he is bound to disappoint you further this week away from home, where he is batting a putrid .249.

John Lackey, SP, Angels: In full "recharge" mode heading into the playoffs, you shouldn't expect much more than five or six innings out of him going forward. Manager Mike Scioscia is being very careful with his ace and, unfortunately for you, he doesn't care about your fantasy team's playoff push. His lone start this week, against the Rangers, is bound to be a short one.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies: A big part of the Phillies' latest resurgence, the outfielder has flashed power (seven home runs and 20 RBI) and a high average (.337) during the past month. He is home all week against the Braves and the Nationals, so you can certainly expect a few more long balls off his bat to leave the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: He's come back from the dead during the past month, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, along with a complete game. He gets two turns this week, against the Marlins and the Cardinals. His consistently high strikeout rate (7.7 K/9) is always a plus when he starts, so consider him a top option going forward.

Bench 'em

Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Nothing short of a bum during the past month (.224 average and one home run), he belongs on all waiver wires from here on out, unless you need his meager stats in an NL-only league. He's at home all week, where he is batting only .264 on the season. Lucky for him, he doesn't need to perform to earn his truckload of money.

Anibal Sanchez, SP, Marlins: Pros: He is striking out nearly a batter per inning during the past month. Cons: He has an ERA of 8.22 over the same time span. If you need further motivation not to start him, he's on the road during his lone start this week, where he has an ERA of 8.00. He could be a huge bargain next spring if he bounces back to his pre-injury form.

By David Ferris

You've got championship needs and we've got information to share. No preamble needed. To the notebook:

Batters

BUY

Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies: He's passed the audition in his first go-round, maintaining a .516 slugging percentage and .911 OPS even with full-time duty. Don't write off Iannetta as a Coors Field mirage; he's actually got much better numbers on the road in 2008. He'll be one of the NL's top five fantasy catchers next year, and for seasons to come.

SELL

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: Milwaukee is fighting for its playoff life and doing so with Ray Durham in place of Weeks. That's all you need to know - get a different second baseman in there. Maybe Weeks needs a change of scenery before he develops into the 25-25 threat we've been waiting on for so long.

HOLD

Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: You'd never teach his approach to anyone else, but "see the ball, hit the ball" has worked for Guzman over the last two years; forget your preconceived notions and just sit back, enjoy the numbers. He's hit the ground running since his brief DL stint, on a 39-for-94 burst with four homers and three steals.

Hunter Pence, OF, Astros: He's shown more power in the second half, and a better sense on the bases. A 30-homer, 15-steal season is probably just a year away, and while Pence may never win a batting title, he's capable of hitting .280-.300 most of the time.

Pitchers

BUY

Max Scherzer, SP, Diamondbacks: He's back in the rotation and dominating batters (20 strikeouts over 11 innings) so I'll dial him in any spot, even in Colorado this weekend. Scherzer will always have to deal with violent mechanics, but nonetheless he's an interesting upside play to consider when we reconvene next spring.

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: He's been super for about a month now (1.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), but the season stats shield it nicely. Harang might be a sneaky bargain in common leagues next year, as the first-half nightmare will scare a lot of bidders away.

SELL

Brandon Lyon, RP, Diamondbacks: The move probably came a month too late, but he's finally out as the Arizona closer, with Chad Qualls and Tony Pena stepping over him on the depth chart. If Bob Melvin is smart, he'll keep Lyon away from all high-leverage situations for the final week and change; the righty simply can't be trusted right now.

Ben Sheets, SP, Brewers: He's got a sore arm to go with his tight groin, and it's not clear when he'll be able to pitch again. You can't risk your championship run on Sheets; use a healthier, safer option even if you're compromising upside.

HOLD

Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins: Here's the NL ace you almost hear nothing about, a three-pitch dominator who's been embarrassing hitters for a few months now. Nolasco's first half was fine by us, but he's taken it up a notch in the second half, improving his control, spiking his strikeout rate, and keeping the ball in the park more often. Believe what the pictures and the numbers tell us, and make Nolasco a staff cornerstone in a keeper league.

By Mark P. Stopa

There's a lot to discuss as we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, so let's get right to it. "Upgrades" means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: Monday night, in Dallas, McNabb reminded everyone what he can do when healthy. Not only did he look good on the road against a top defense, but did so with starting wideouts Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis sidelined. DeSean Jackson's emergence has certainly helped (his boneheaded play at the goal line notwithstanding), as does getting to throw to Brian Westbrook. Brown is back this week. Once Curtis joins him, McNabb becomes a guy you leave in your starting lineup each week without even thinking about matchups.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: As long as LaDainian Tomlinson is nicked up, the Chargers are not going to run as much as usual. Hence, Tomlinson's loss is Rivers' (and Darren Sproles') gain. Rivers looks fine coming off ACL surgery, and with three nice weapons in the passing game (Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson) he's worthy of starting in 12-team leagues.

Bills offensive players: The Bills have suddenly emerged as one of the better teams in the AFC, and it's not all because of their defense and special teams. They are not as wide open as the Broncos, but offensive coordinator Turk Schonert (last year's QB coach) has loosened the reigns with good results. Trent Edwards, while unspectacular, is better than you think. He does not throw INTs and thus will likely wind up a top-15 QB in leagues that penalize for picks. Fred Jackson is a top-10 RB waiting to happen if Marshawn Lynch gets injured. In fact, Jackson is playing so well even with Lynch healthy that he's become a flex option in deeper leagues. Consider him Felix Jones-lite. Lynch looks terrific, too - he's a stud running behind a really good offensive line. Lee Evans is developing a rapport with Edwards and is going to catch some long TDs. He's a nice buy-low right now. Don't go crazy here, though: Robert Royal, Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish and James Hardy are still waiver-wire fodder.

Tony Scheffler, TE, Broncos: I listed Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal as upgrades last week, but didn't mention Scheffler. This week, let's eliminate any ambiguity: If you can get in on any part of the Broncos' passing offense, do so. While you are at it, add kicker Matt Prater, too. This is the AFC's version of the Cowboys, but without a stud RB like Marion Barber to steal the touchdowns. As for Scheffler, he's an every-week starter.

John Carlson, TE, Seahawks: The carnage at wide receiver in Seattle has left Carlson as Matt Hasselbeck's best (and only) reliable option in the passing game. Until Deion Branch and Bobby Engram return, Carlson is a top-10 tight end.

No Change

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns. Week 1, Edwards was coming off of an injury and dropped a long pass that would have been a TD. Week 2, he was playing in 40-mph winds, hindering the Browns' ability to throw downfield. But Edwards is healthy now and, even in Cleveland, the Browns may not face weather that bad again this year. Edwards is still an athletic freak and the Browns defense is still so bad that it will force the offense to throw for four quarters. Don't worry about Edwards.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: His poor performance is largely the product of facing two good run defenses, including Minnesota's -- the best in the league. I am a little concerned about the Colts offensive line, but Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday seems to be coming back soon. Plus, the Colts' schedule is more favorable later in the year (Browns, Bengals and Lions in Weeks 13 to 15). Don't panic: Addai should be fine. A key here is the health of Manning's knee and whether it will soon allow him to get in position to hand the ball off to Addai on those patented Colts stretch plays instead of the pitch plays they've been forced to resort to in weeks 1 and 2.

Downgrades

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: Remember when Marshall Faulk was the consensus Number 1 fantasy pick and was viewed as head and shoulders above every other player, but then one year later the injuries started piling up and he was never the same? There are definitely parallels here. If you own LT, you can't cut him and you can't trade him (with his trade value so low) - all you can really do is try to pick up Darren Sproles and hope that Tomlinson either gets healthy (enabling you to start LT) or is made inactive (so you can bench LT and start Sproles).

Raiders passing game: JaMarcus Russell might be a good player one day, but right now he's absolutely atrocious. He's also killing any value that Javon Walker and Ronald Curry may have had. Since the Raiders love to run the ball when the score is close, the only chance that Russell, Walker and Curry have to help a fantasy team is late in games, when the Raiders are on the wrong end of a blowout. Don't stake your fantasy fortunes on that.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Grant had a juicy matchup last week against the same Lions defense that Michael Turner torched in Week 1, yet did nothing. I don't know if the problem was his hamstring or something else, but I'm concerned. Although I am optimistic that Grant will turn it around on a good Packers offense, he's never performed over a full season. And Brandon Jackson looked good enough last week to at least siphon off some carries long term.

All Rams: St. Louis has played two games and has yet to run an offensive play in the opponent's red zone. I don't care who the Rams were playing - that is unacceptable. Until the Rams show some life on offense, Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt all merit downgrades.

Michael Salfino contributed to this report.

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Update: 9/20

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Sit back, enjoy the ride.
2. Drew Brees, NO at DEN
3. Tony Romo, DAL at GB
4. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DAL
NOTE: Poise of a ten-year veteran.
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. PIT
NOTE: He's a blast if injury doesn't strike.
6. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Showed plenty of moxie in Seattle win.
7. Philip Rivers, SD vs. NYJ
8. Kurt Warner, ARI at WAS
9. Peyton Manning, IND vs. JAC
10. Eli Manning, NYG vs. CIN
11. Jon Kitna, DET at SF
12. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at PHI
NOTE: How bad is the shoulder?
13. Matt Cassel, NE vs. MIA
14. Brett Favre, NYJ at SD
15. Jake Delhomme, CAR at MIN
16. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. OAK
17. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA vs. STL
NOTE: If only he has some targets.
18. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. ARI
19. Derek Anderson, CLE at BAL
20. Matt Schaub, HOU at TEN
21. Gus Frerotte, MIN vs. CAR
NOTE: Steps in for benched Jackson.
22. Marc Bulger, STL at SEA
23. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. TB
24. Carson Palmer, CIN at NYG
25. David Garrard, JAC at IND
26. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. HOU
27. Brian Griese, TB at CHI
28. Chad Pennington, MIA at NE
NOTE: Has the brains, not the arm.
29. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. KC
30. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. CLE
31. *Tyler Thigpen, KC at ATL
32. JaMarcus Russell, OAK at BUF

Running Back
1. *Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. CAR
2. Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. PIT
3. Frank Gore, SF vs. DET
4. *Marion Barber, DAL at GB
5. Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. CIN
6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. OAK
NOTE: Set-up is ideal here.
7. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. NYJ
NOTE: Doubtful toe will keep him from must-win game.
8. Willie Parker, PIT at PHI
9. Matt Forte, CHI vs. TB
10. Clinton Portis, WAS vs. ARI
11. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. HOU
NOTE: Fastest back in the league.
12. Michael Turner, ATL vs. KC
13. Steven Jackson, STL at SEA
NOTE: Doesn't see a lot of blocking.
14. Reggie Bush, NO at DEN
15. Julius Jones, SEA vs. STL
NOTE: It's the matchup, not the player.
16. Joseph Addai, IND vs. JAC
17. Larry Johnson, KC at ATL
18. Earnest Graham, TB at CHI
NOTE: Like the talent, but Dunn steals touches.
19. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at IND
20. Jamal Lewis, CLE at BAL
21. Thomas Jones, NYJ at SD
22. Sammy Morris, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: Best of the three-headed lot.
23. LenDale White, TEN vs. HOU
NOTE: Gets the goal-line work, anyway.
24. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. CLE
25. Ryan Grant, GB vs. DAL
NOTE: Hamstring looms, not to mention Jackson.
26. Kevin Smith, DET at SF
27. Darren McFadden, OAK at BUF
28. Edgerrin James, ARI at WAS
NOTE: Losing the stripe touches to Hightower.
29. Ronnie Brown, MIA at NE
30. LaMont Jordan, NE vs. MIA
31. Steve Slaton, HOU at TEN
32. Selvin Young, DEN vs. NO
33. Darren Sproles, SD vs. NYJ
NOTE: Exciting scatback, but don't chase Week 2.
34. Ray Rice, BAL vs. CLE
35. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at MIN
36. Chris Perry, CIN at NYG
37. Fred Jackson, BUF vs. OAK
38. Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. KC
39. Michael Pittman, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Has a shot at 9-10 TDs.
40. Michael Bush, OAK at BUF
41. Andre Hall, DEN vs. NO
42. Pierre Thomas, NO at DEN
NOTE: Mandatory insurance for Bush owners.
43. Fred Taylor, JAC at IND
44. Tim Hightower, ARI at WAS
45. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. CIN
46. Ricky Williams, MIA at NE
47. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at MIN
49. Felix Jones, DAL at GB
49. Warrick Dunn, TB at CHI
50. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. DAL
NOTE: A No. 2 with juice.
51. Kevin Faulk, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: He's around to muck things up.
52. Derrick Ward, NYG vs. CIN
52. LeRon McClain, BAL vs. CLE
54. Leon Washington, NYJ at SD
55. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. CAR
56. Kevin Jones, CHI vs. TB
57. T.J. Duckett, SEA vs. STL
58. Leonard Weaver, SEA vs. STL
59. Ladell Betts, WAS vs. ARI
60. Kenny Watson, CIN at NYG
61. Rudi Johnson, DET at SF
62. Chris Taylor, HOU at TEN
63. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. DET
64. Jamaal Charles, KC at ATL
65. Kregg Lumpkin, GB vs. DAL
66. Dominic Rhodes, IND vs. JAC
67. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT at PHI
NOTE: August fumbles really set him back.

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL at GB
NOTE: Doesn't look 30-something, now does he?
2. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Blanket coverage sometimes isn't enough.
3. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. JAC
4. Plaxico Burress, NYG vs. CIN
NOTE: Meet me in Hawaii.
5. Randy Moss, NE vs. MIA
6. Calvin Johnson, DET at SF
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
7. Andre Johnson, HOU at TEN
8. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at WAS
9. Anquan Boldin, ARI at WAS
10. Greg Jennings, GB vs. DAL
NOTE: Doesn't miss that other QB.
11. Steve Smith, CAR at MIN
NOTE: Welcome back, all is forgiven.
12. Roy Williams, DET at SF
13. Santonio Holmes, PIT at PHI
14. Braylon Edwards, CLE at BAL
NOTE: A good buy-low target.
15. Lee Evans, BUF vs. OAK
16. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at SD
17. Santana Moss, WAS vs. ARI
18. Hines Ward, PIT at PHI
19. Dwayne Bowe, KC at ATL
20. Torry Holt, STL at SEA
21. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. PIT
NOTE: Remember the jets, forget the gaffe.
22. Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Slot machine paying off.
23. Chris Chambers, SD vs. NYJ
24. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at NYG
25. Wes Welker, NE vs. MIA
26. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. NO
27. Donald Driver, GB vs. DAL
28. Chad Johnson, CIN at NYG
29. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. NYJ
30. Bryant Johnson, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Starting to get comfortable in scheme.
31. Roddy White, ATL vs. KC
NOTE: Better days are ahead.
32. Laveranues Coles, NYJ at SD
33. David Patten, NO at DEN
34. Justin Gage, TEN vs. HOU
35. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Tank isn't empty yet.
36. Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. CAR
37. Antonio Bryant, TB at CHI
NOTE: Could step up with Galloway out.
38. Matt Jones, JAC at IND
39. Kevin Walter, HOU at TEN
40. Marvin Harrison, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Just the third option now.
41. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. CLE
42. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. CLE
43. Patrick Crayton, DAL at GB
44. *Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. ARI
45. Keary Colbert, SEA vs. STL
46. Ike Hilliard, TB at CHI
47. Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. TB
48. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at MIN
49. Robert Meachem, NO at DEN
NOTE: Scored in first pro game.
50. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. PIT
51. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. CIN
52. James Jones, GB vs. DAL
53. Josh Reed, BUF vs. OAK
54. Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. KC
55. Greg Lewis, PHI vs. PIT
NOTE: No great shakes, but needed for now.
56. Shaun McDonald, DET at SF
57. Michael Clayton, TB at CHI
58. *Javon Walker, OAK at BUF
59. Reggie Williams, JAC at IND
60. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ at SD
NOTE: Two weeks, two touchdowns.
61. Steve Breaston, ARI at WAS
NOTE: Watch this special-teams ace.
62. Ronald Curry, OAK at BUF
63. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. TB
64. Ashley Lelie, OAK at BUF
65. Devery Henderson, NO at DEN
66. Courtney Taylor, SEA vs. STL
67. Dennis Northcutt, JAC at IND
68. Arnaz Battle, SF vs. DET
69. Ted Ginn, MIA at NE
70. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. HOU
71. Lance Moore, NO at DEN
72. Greg Camarillo, MIA at NE
73. *Roscoe Parrish, BUF vs. OAK
74. Koren Robinson, SEA vs. STL
NOTE: Shows how desperate they are.
75. James Hardy, BUF vs. OAK
76. Billy McMullen, SEA vs. STL
77. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. NO
78. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. HOU
79. D.J. Hackett, CAR at MIN
80. Steve Smith, NYG vs. CIN
81. *Jerry Porter, JAC at IND
82. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. CAR

Tight End
1. *Jason Witten, DAL at GB
NOTE: Monday guts add to the legend.
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE at BAL
3. *Antonio Gates, SD vs. NYJ
4. Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. NO
NOTE: Timing is perfect for a breakout.
5. Jeremy Shockey, NO at DEN
6. Chris Cooley, WAS vs. ARI
7. Tony Gonzalez, KC at ATL
8. John Carlson, SEA vs. STL
9. L.J. Smith, PHI vs. PIT
10. Donald Lee, GB vs. DAL
11. Heath Miller, PIT at PHI
12. Owen Daniels, HOU at TEN
13. Vernon Davis, SF vs. DET
NOTE: Amazing athlete, still figuring out football.
14. Todd Heap, BAL vs. CLE
15. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. TB
16. Randy McMichael, STL at SEA
17. Zach Miller, OAK at BUF
18. Anthony Fasano, MIA at NE
19. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. HOU
20. *Dallas Clark, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Touch-and-go for another week.
21. Dante Rosario, CAR at MIN
22. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. TB
23. David Martin, MIA at NE
24. Robert Royal, BUF vs. OAK
25. Alex Smith, TB at CHI
26. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. HOU
27. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at IND
28. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. CAR
29. Leonard Pope, ARI at WAS
30. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. CIN
31. *David Thomas, NE vs. MIA
32. Chris Baker, NYJ at SD

Kicker
1. *John Carney, NYG vs. CIN
NOTE: Go where the points are.
2. Nick Folk, DAL at GB
3. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. NYJ
4. Matt Prater, DEN vs. NO
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. MIA
NOTE: One Patriot helped by Brady absence.
6. Olindo Mare, SEA vs. STL
7. Rian Lindell, BUF vs. OAK
8. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. CAR
9. Mason Crosby, GB vs. DAL
10. Adam Vinatieri, IND vs. JAC
NOTE: Not the guy he was in New England.
11. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. HOU
12. Joe Nedney, SF vs. DET
13. David Akers, PHI vs. PIT
14. Jeff Reed, PIT at PHI
15. Martin Gramatica, NO at DEN
16. John Kasay, CAR at MIN
NOTE: Leg is still there, but tricky assignment.
17. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. TB
18. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. ARI
19. Josh Scobee, JAC at IND
20. Kris Brown, HOU at TEN
21. Matt Stover, BAL vs. CLE
22. Phil Dawson, CLE at BAL
23. Neil Rackers, ARI at WAS
24. Jason Elam, ATL vs. KC
25. Jay Feely, NYJ at SD
26. Jason Hanson, DET at SF
27. Matt Bryant, TB at CHI
28. Josh Brown, STL at SEA
29. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK at BUF
30. Shayne Graham, CIN at NYG
31. Nick Novak, KC at ATL
32. Dan Carpenter, MIA at NE

Defense
1. New York Giants vs. Cincinnati
NOTE: Justin Tuck, you are ridiculous.
2. New England vs. Miami
3. Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
4. Baltimore vs. Cleveland
5. Seattle vs. St Louis
NOTE: Still a good play at home.
6. Buffalo vs. Oakland
7. Tennessee vs. Houston
8. Arizona at Washington
NOTE: Not sold on Campbell yet.
9. Minnesota vs. Carolina
10. Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
11. San Diego vs. New York Jets
12. Carolina at Minnesota
13. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
14. Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
NOTE: Major difference with Sanders out.
15. Dallas at Green Bay
16. Houston at Tennessee
17. Atlanta vs. Kansas City
NOTE: Mediocre unit but matchup is right.
18. Tampa Bay at Chicago
19. San Francisco vs. Detroit
20. Cleveland at Baltimore
21. Green Bay vs. Dallas
22. Jacksonville at Indianapolis
23. Washington vs. Arizona
24. Detroit at San Francisco
25. Denver vs. New Orleans
26. New York Jets at San Diego
27. Oakland at Buffalo
28. Kansas City at Atlanta
29. New Orleans at Denver
30. Miami at New England
31. St Louis at Seattle
32. Cincinnati at New York Giants

By Michael Salfino

Let's continue our season-ending series on who our stats consider to be lucky and unlucky players by focusing today on jinxed hitters.

To isolate luck, we look at average with runners in scoring position (RISP) because, generally, hitters' success or failure here does not repeat year to year to the same degree as broader stats like batting average. We also isolate the percentage of homers on fly balls for hitters who should still be in their power prime. And we assess a hitter's batting average on balls in play, which generally is about .300. Note, though, that balls in play (BIP) do not include homers (by definition, out of play) and that line-drive rate is a good check for outlying numbers as about 75 percent of line drives are hits.

First though, as a test of our underlying assumptions, let's look at the players we labeled as unlucky at this time last year.

Assuming they received a similar degree of opportunity - and they all did - more of them should have performed better than worse. For context, consider that a significant majority of players should be expected to perform worse than last year - not the 50 percent of players we'd expect. The reasons for this are regression to the mean (average performance for each player as well as average performance for all players), the fact that many poor performers lose their jobs and thus don't get a chance to improve and the number of first-year players with no stat history replacing them.

Here are the unlucky hitters and pitchers we highlighted last year and expected to perform significantly better in 2008: Akinori Iwamura (Rays), J.D. Drew (Red Sox), Paul Konerko (White Sox), Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks), Wandy Rodriguez (Astros), Andy Sonnanstine (Rays), Dan Wheeler (Rays) and Jason Frasor (Blue Jays).

Iwamura was cited for his poor average with RISP (.184). This year, he improved, but only to .243. So his runs batted in increased 30 percent, but not as much as expected. His other stats held remarkably steady. Let's be tough self-graders and call Iwamura a push.

J.D. Drew was expected to increase his rate of homers on fly balls - just 8 percent last year. That rate more than doubled in '08 to over 17 percent. Alas, Drew missed significant time again due to injury. But his OPS improved from .796 to .930, so Drew is a hit.

Konerko is a big swing and a miss. Enough said.

But Stephen Drew is another big hit: average jumping from .238 to .282 for the exact reason cited here last year: a huge increase in his BIP average (.267 to .312).

On the pitching side, Rodriguez, Wheeler and Sonnanstine each repeated their solid K/BB ratios and translated them much better into ERA. They're all big hits. But Frasor is a whiff, though he interestingly has a better ERA than last year despite a far worse K/BB ratio.

Five hits and two misses is a nice result and shows we're on the right path with our analysis. Let's try to do even better now in looking only at unlucky hitters, focusing mainly on a stat courtesy of our friends at HardballTimes.com and Baseball Info Solutions: predicted OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).

Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox: His predicted OPS, which looks at BIP and where they're hit, is .882. His actual is a relatively puny .749, making him the unluckiest predicted OPS hitter in the sport. Use that .882 as the baseline for 2009 projections.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: He's been so hot since June that people are talking about him as an MVP. But it's just his luck that turned. For the full season, his predicted OPS is .965, so this potential free agent seems far from done at age 36.

Mark Ellis, 2B, A's: His defense will keep him in the lineup next year, somewhere. The A's or any potential suitors must look at the .798 OPS he should have, not his .694 actual.

Jack Cust, DH, A's: He has tremendous power: homers on about 30 percent of fly balls two years in a row (average is 10 percent). His .828 actual OPS isn't bad, but look at his predicted one, a sweet .957.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: Very confident in this play as his average with RISP was .194. If he's got some kind of "gut" defect, why was it .284 and .337 the prior two years?

B.J. Upton, OF, Rays: He's a wonderful defensive center fielder. So he doesn't even need to flash the power he showed in 2007. But the rate of homers on fly balls went from 19.8 percent to 6.8 percent. Those seem like end points on his spectrum. Expect him to settle somewhere in the middle at about 13 percent, which would have translated into 16 homers this year given the number of fly balls he hit.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

Next Update: 9/23

First Base/DH
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NOTE: A monster in second half.
2. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Mark Teixeira, Angels
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
NOTE: More contact would be nice.
6. Lance Berkman, Astros
7. Prince Fielder, Brewers
8. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
9. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
10. Carlos Pena, Rays
11. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
12. Carlos Delgado, Mets
NOTE: Arguably the team MVP.
13. Derrek Lee, Cubs
14. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
15. Jason Giambi, Yankees
16. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Joey Votto, Reds
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
20. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
21. *Paul Konerko, White Sox
22. Casey Kotchman, Braves
23. Jim Thome, White Sox
24. Kevin Millar, Orioles
25. Travis Hafner, Indians
NOTE: He's back, but power isn't.

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Dan Uggla, Marlins
5. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
6. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Jose Lopez, Mariners
9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
NOTE: Lineup jockeying doesn't help confidence.
10. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
11. Placido Polanco, Tigers
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Omar Infante, Braves
14. Willie Harris, Nationals
15. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
16. Luis Rodriguez, Padres
17. Nick Punto, Twins
18. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
19. Alberto Callaspo, Royals
20. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
21. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
22. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
NOTE: Back on the radar for 2009.
23. Alexi Casilla, Twins
24. Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: Time opens up with Phillips out.
25. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
26. Eugenio Velez, Giants
27. Ray Durham, Brewers
28. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
29. Luis Castillo, Mets

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
7. Mike Aviles, Royals
NOTE: Late-blooming prospect makes good.
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
10. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
12. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
NOTE: Free-swinging approach somehow works for him.
13. Miguel Tejada, Astros
14. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
15. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
16. Yunel Escobar, Braves
17. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
19. Erick Aybar, Angels
20. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
21. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
22. Clint Barmes, Rockies
23. Jason Bartlett, Rays
24. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Juan Uribe, White Sox

Third Base
1. David Wright, Mets
2. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: Back for the final two weeks.
7. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. *Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: One opponent who will miss Shea Stadium.
10. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
11. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
12. *Melvin Mora, Orioles
13. Ian Stewart, Rockies
14. Chris Davis, Rangers
15. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
16. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
17. Ryan Garko, Indians
18. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
19. *Casey Blake, Dodgers
NOTE: Keep an eye on sore back.
20. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
21. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
22. *Troy Glaus, Cardinals
23. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
NOTE: Hip problem not going away.
24. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
25. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
26. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
27. Willy Aybar, Rays
28. Geoff Blum, Astros
29. Rich Aurilia, Giants
30. Jack Hannahan, Athletics
31. Andy Marte, Indians

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
NOTE: SoCal agrees with him.
3. Matt Holliday, Rockies
4. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
5. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles
7. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
8. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
9. *Jason Bay, Red Sox
10. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
13. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
14. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
15. Hunter Pence, Astros
16. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
17. Xavier Nady, Yankees
18. Johnny Damon, Yankees
19. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
20. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
21. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
22. Nate McLouth, Pirates
23. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
24. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
25. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Loving live just in front of Manny.
26. Shane Victorino, Phillies
27. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
28. Corey Hart, Brewers
NOTE: Major slump came at worst time.
29. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
30. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
31. Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Aggressive running, and we appreciate it.
32. *Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
33. *Torii Hunter, Angels
NOTE: All Anaheim guys are risky plays down the stretch.
34. Denard Span, Twins
35. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
36. Jayson Werth, Phillies
NOTE: Owns lefties, capable against righties.
37. Randy Winn, Giants
38. Aaron Rowand, Giants
39. Pat Burrell, Phillies
40. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
41. Rajai Davis, Athletics
42. Adam Jones, Orioles
43. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
44. *B.J. Upton, Rays
NOTE: Won't be healthy the rest of the way.
45. Jason Kubel, Twins
46. *Jose Guillen, Royals
47. Jack Cust, Athletics
48. Delmon Young, Twins
49. Chase Headley, Padres
50. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
51. *Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
52. Ben Francisco, Indians
53. David DeJesus, Royals
54. Luke Scott, Orioles
55. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
56. Brian Giles, Padres
NOTE: Still an OBP machine.
57. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
58. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
59. *Michael Bourn, Astros
60. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
61. Josh Anderson, Braves
NOTE: Cheap speed for the finish.
62. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
63. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
64. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
65. Mark Teahen, Royals
66. Ken Griffey, White Sox
67. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
68. *Garret Anderson, Angels
69. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
70. Jay Bruce, Reds
71. Eric Hinske, Rays
72. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
73. Cody Ross, Marlins
74. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
75. *Marcus Thames, Tigers
76. *Juan Rivera, Angels
77. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
78. Nick Swisher, White Sox
NOTE: Looks lost at the plate these days.
79. Matt Joyce, Tigers
80. Josh Willingham, Marlins
81. Bill Hall, Brewers
82. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
83. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
84. Reed Johnson, Cubs
85. Gregor Blanco, Braves
86. Ross Gload, Royals
87. *Jody Gerut, Padres
88. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
NOTE: Shutting it down after this week.

Catchers
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Geovany Soto, Cubs
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
6. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
NOTE: The breakout year no one saw coming.
7. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
8. Victor Martinez, Indians
9. Bengie Molina, Giants
10. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
11. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
12. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
NOTE: Will be trendy, if not costly, in 2009.
13. *Yadier Molina, Cardinals
14. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
15. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
16. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers
NOTE: A snappy two-week debut.
17. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
18. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
19. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
20. Jeff Clement, Mariners
21. Mike Napoli, Angels
22. Gerald Laird, Rangers
23. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
24. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
25. *Jesus Flores, Nationals
26. John Baker, Marlins
27. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
28. Miguel Olivo, Royals
29. Brian Schneider, Mets
30. John Buck, Royals
31. Jeff Mathis, Angels

By Michael Salfino

Extensive analysis of NFL statistics over many seasons reveals that to maximize the chance to win, a team should strive to pass the ball more efficiently. So far this season, teams that average more yards per pass than their opponent, factoring in sack yards, are 27-4.

This week, the only outliers - teams victorious despite losing the passing battle -- were the Panthers and the Broncos. The Panthers lost it by a tenth of a yard in a game that was pretty much dead even: a 20-17 win over the Bears. And the Broncos were bailed out by two horrendous calls that replay couldn't fix - one because of equipment failure.

Of course it's early; so the usual caveats apply. But in the NFL, it's always later than you think. After this week, most teams will have played about 20 percent of their season slates.

So if out-passing your opponent is important enough for it to correlate to winning this year to that degree (87 percent of the time, a little high, as most years it's about 80 percent), than we should be able to use it to rank the best (and worst) teams.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. We don't know if these teams will continue to excel and struggle in the passing game to the degree they have. But if they do, the results as measured by wins and losses will surely follow.

Your net-YPA (yards per pass attempt) leaders are the Cowboys, the Bills, the Niners (who really whipped the Seahawks here on Sunday), the Chargers and the Packers.

Four of those teams have combined for the 7-1 record we'd expect. But San Diego is the unluckiest 0-2 ever. A reckoning is coming, soon. I wouldn't want to be the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Qualcomm Stadium to face a team that's not only good but very likely furiously angry after giving away a game on the final play and having another one stolen by the aforementioned officiating gaffes.

Looking at the bottom of the net-YPA barrel, there are some big surprises, especially if you thought the Vikings were going to be the division winner most predicted. They are 26th in the stat and fully deserve their 0-2 record. I'm surprised that Jacksonville is 28th because I like David Garrard as a player. However, the Jaguars' offensive line has been decimated and their pass protection has suffered (nine sacks). The Browns (30th) were expected by many to build on their 2007 success, but they are yielding an unconscionable 9.49 YPA, even though Sunday night's game was played in 40 mile per hour winds.

Of the 2-0 teams, the worst in net-YPA is the Broncos (20th), though that's mostly the Chargers game. Of course, their other game was against the Raiders, who threw for 55 yards on 17 attempts versus the Chiefs last week -- just one completion to a wideout.

Phil Simms recently noted the feeling around the league is that defensive backs are now so athletic that they are generally able to win matchups against most receivers. But there's no evidence of that, as the league YPA is 6.55, slightly higher than the previous few seasons.

Now let's make some related recommendations.

Buy

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: The touchdowns are coming. Evans just missed one on a textbook post-corner pattern for a long gain at Jacksonville. QB Trent Edwards is very accurate and there's no better deep threat in the game than Evans.

J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: Mike Martz developed Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, who were similarly overlooked before hooking up with him in his mad passing laboratory. O'Sullivan showed toughness, improvisational ability and great pocket awareness in the comeback win at Seattle.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: Made due against the tough Cowboys without his starting wideouts (soon to return), showing vintage schoolyard escapability when seemingly wrapped up by multiple defenders. Accuracy will always be an issue, especially on easy throws.

Niners pass defense: They're ninth in YPA allowed despite facing Matt Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner. The former was without his top three wideouts, but Warner was fully loaded in Week 1 and reasonably contained.

Hold

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: He's thrived against the Vikings fearsome front four and then had a road comeback win when he had to fire up the idling engines after disaster struck. He's got the entire package.

Chris Chambers, WR, Chargers: Philip Rivers looked like the star he was becoming his first year as a starter, not the disappointing '07 variety. Chambers is very talented but slides under the defensive radar given the other stars beside him (Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson).

Sell

Chad Ocho Cinco, WR, Bengals: Yes, the wind was fierce on Sunday. But the former Johnson is a boom-or-bust type and it looks like the boom days are over with the Bengals, now last in YPA and continuing a steady offensive decline from early 2007.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Next Update: 9/23

Starting Pitchers
1. CC Sabathia, Brewers
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Johan Santana, Mets
4. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: Trophy should be locked up.
5. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
6. Jake Peavy, Padres
7. Cole Hamels, Phillies
8. Francisco Liriano, Twins
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Keeps winning despite spotty command.
10. James Shields, Rays
11. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
12. Ervin Santana, Angels
13. Scott Kazmir, Rays
14. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
15. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
16. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
17. Roy Oswalt, Astros
18. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
19. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
20. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
NOTE: So much for the sore shoulder.
21. Josh Johnson, Marlins
22. John Lackey, Angels
23. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
24. Edinson Volquez, Reds
25. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
26. Brett Myers, Phillies
27. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
28. John Danks, White Sox
29. *Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NOTE: Dealing with sore groin.
30. Kevin Slowey, Twins
31. Ted Lilly, Cubs
32. Brandon Morrow, Mariners
NOTE: Good matchups down the stretch.
33. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
34. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
35. Jon Lester, Red Sox
36. Mike Mussina, Yankees
37. Ben Sheets, Brewers
38. Justin Verlander, Tigers
NOTE: The enigma of the season.
39. Matt Garza, Rays
40. *Rich Harden, Cubs
41. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
42. Matt Cain, Giants
43. Paul Maholm, Pirates
NOTE: Most underrated lefty in the NL.
44. Manny Parra, Brewers
45. Aaron Cook, Rockies
46. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
47. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
48. Joe Saunders, Angels
49. *Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Strikeout ace has trouble going more than six.
50. Oliver Perez, Mets
51. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
52. Scott Baker, Twins
53. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
54. Pedro Martinez, Mets
55. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
NOTE: He's rallied nicely in second half.
56. *Jered Weaver, Angels
57. Zack Greinke, Royals
58. David Bush, Brewers
59. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
60. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
61. Gil Meche, Royals
62. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
NOTE: Gets the ball in the stadium closer.
63. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
64. *David Price, Rays
65. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
66. Scott Olsen, Marlins
67. Randy Wolf, Astros
68. David Purcey, Blue Jays
69. Johnny Cueto, Reds
NOTE: Quietly making progress of late.
70. Scott Lewis, Indians
71. Braden Looper, Cardinals
72. Joe Blanton, Phillies
NOTE: More useful than most expected.
73. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
74. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
75. Greg Maddux, Dodgers
76. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
77. *Armando Galarraga, Tigers
NOTE: Time to shut him down?
78. Nick Blackburn, Twins
79. Chris Volstad, Marlins
80. Jon Garland, Angels
81. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
82. Jeff Francis, Rockies
83. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
84. Aaron Harang, Reds
85. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
86. Glen Perkins, Twins
87. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
88. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
89. *Anthony Reyes, Indians
90. Jorge Campillo, Braves
NOTE: He's hit a wall of late.
91. Jason Marquis, Cubs
92. Brian Moehler, Astros
93. Edwin Jackson, Rays
94. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
95. Kevin Correia, Giants
96. Odalis Perez, Nationals
97. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
98. Ian Snell, Pirates
99. Tim Redding, Nationals
100. Zach Miner, Tigers
101. Fausto Carmona, Indians

Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Brad Lidge, Phillies
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
5. Jose Valverde, Astros
NOTE: A big part of their surprising run.
6. Joe Nathan, Twins
7. Joakim Soria, Royals
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
10. Kerry Wood, Cubs
11. Brian Wilson, Giants
12. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
15. Salomon Torres, Brewers
16. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
17. Frank Francisco, Rangers
NOTE: It's his job into 2009.
18. Matt Capps, Pirates
19. Chris Perez, Cardinals
20. Jensen Lewis, Indians
21. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
22. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
23. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
24. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
25. *Troy Percival, Rays
26. Luis Ayala, Mets
27. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
28. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
NOTE: He's in, and Lyon is out.
29. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
30. Dan Wheeler, Rays
31. *George Sherrill, Orioles
32. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
33. Grant Balfour, Rays
34. Huston Street, Athletics
35. Joey Devine, Athletics
36. Joe Nelson, Marlins
37. *Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
38. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
NOTE: Back in the mix, but Broxton keeps ninth.

39. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
40. Jerry Blevins, Athletics
41. Heath Bell, Padres
42. Rafael Perez, Indians
43. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
44. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
45. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
46. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
47. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
48. Aaron Heilman, Mets
49. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
50. Scot Shields, Angels
51. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
52. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
53. Chad Durbin, Phillies
54. Damaso Marte, Yankees
55. J.P. Howell, Rays

By Michael Salfino

We lead off the week of analysis here by focusing our scouting eye on Sunday's action.

Rookie Matt Forte's Tulane run blocking scheme was zone just like the Bears, which is why, he says, he's picked up the NFL pace so quickly.

The Rams are again the worst team in football at blitz pickup. It's taking a toll on Marc Bulger, who on his first 10 drop-backs Sunday against the Giants was sacked four times and knocked down four more.

Saints second-year man Robert Meachem scored but had just that one catch, which came as a fourth WR courtesy of a terrible read by the safety. The Saints don't seem to trust him even with Marques Colston out. The trouble with guys like Meachem having an impact in preseason games is that coaches don't treat these games seriously. The important stuff happens on the practice fields and in classrooms.

Aaron Rodgers is not just a scrambler but showed Favre-like escapability while maintaining his downfield focus. His owners have to especially love Mike McCarthy spreading out the Lions and calling for a pass that resulted in a TD on third and short near the goal line.

Wednesday, Clinton Portis said he wished he "could go to a team for one week with the best offensive line, or the team with the best scheme, and switch places with their back and see how others would do in this system." Maybe Jim Zorn is a bigger man than me, but you can't accept that kind of insubordination as a head coach, especially a first-year one. Portis, despite his two TDs Sunday, is no longer good enough to warrant looking the other way.

Analyst Rich Gannon doing the Chiefs-Raiders game said Larry Johnson "needs to get his confidence level back to where it was in 2005." No, Rich, he needs his offensive line from 2005, and something like Trent Green (sparkling 7.9 YPA that year) at QB instead of Tyler Thigpen.

Just when I thought that maybe practice is what made Peyton Manning perfect and that his receivers, especially Marvin Harrison, can't get separation, he flips a switch and coldly assassinates the Vikings. Harrison looked shot the whole game, though.

David Garrard is undermanned on offense now but made a terrible decision robbing his Jaguars of a certain three points by throwing it up into double coverage and getting picked in the final seconds of the first half.

The NFL is making a classic economics mistake with this new rule that all facemasks are 15-yard penalties. In the past, you had an incentive to let go when you accidentally grabbed so as to limit the foul to five yards. Now, why not just hold on and rip the guy's head off, like the Bills nearly did to Maurice Jones-Drew? It's 15 yards either way.

Tarvaris Jackson can't come close to moving the chains and costs Adrian Peterson 30 percent of his potential value, at least, with his putrid third-down passing.

Darren McFadden (21 rushes for 164 yards and a score) is similarly cursed, at least for 2008, at QB. His day didn't really begin until Justin Fargas (groin) limped off, and it ended on the sidelines watching Michael Bush (16 attempts for 90 yards and a long TD).

McFadden's QB, JaMarcus Russell, needs to learn that, in the NFL, "when you wait, you're late." And his end-over-end dying quail into the end zone while rolling out of the pocket is more proof that he can't throw on the move.

Miami's Ted Ginn (1 catch, 9 yards) has play-making speed but is being knocked five yards off his routes on jams, which completely takes him out of passing plays called for him. If he can't play more physically, he has no chance to have an impact from scrimmage.

Take a running back's longest gain and subtract that from their totals and see how many yards they averaged then. If it's under 3.0, there's hidden trouble. The trouble's not even hidden with Edgerrin James, too old with too much mileage and not getting goal-line carries. But this week, subtracting his longest carry, James gained 42 yards on 17 rushes (2.47 per attempt).

Kurt Warner's explosive passing (361 yards on only 24 attempts) didn't help James. But note that there's no statistical evidence that passing well helps you run better, and vice versa. For example, in the vast majority of years, the best running teams (yards per carry) throw it about average (yards per attempt). Defenses seem to react to the play, not think about what's transpired before it.

Brandon Marshall (18 catches for 166 yards and a TD) is officially a Freak WR. That means he's got size, speed, wingspan, leaping ability - too much athleticism to ever truly be covered. The club has few members: Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams, Plaxico Burress, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards and Larry Fitzgerald. Buffalo rookie James Hardy has the makings of a Future Freak.

Monday night in Dallas, notice how Jason Witten is Tony Romo's default read whenever he feels pressure.

By Chad Lawton

BREAKING NEWS: The NFL on Saturday afternoon announced that Hurricane Ike has caused too much damage to Reliant Stadium for the game between
the Ravens and the Texans to be played this week. The game has not yet been rescheduled. Treat all Texans and Ravens as if they are on a bye week this week, regardless of what's indicated below, written before the game was cancelled.

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Update: 9/17

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tony Romo, DAL vs. PHI
2. *Jay Cutler, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: This year's breakout QB.
3. Peyton Manning, IND at MIN
4. Drew Brees, NO at WAS
5. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at CLE
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB at DET
NOTE: Three special quarters Monday.
7. Donovan McNabb, PHI at DAL
8. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. MIA
9. Eli Manning, NYG at STL
10. Jon Kitna, DET vs. GB
11. Brett Favre, NYJ vs. NE
12. Derek Anderson, CLE vs. PIT
NOTE: He's better than Dallas opener suggests.
13. Carson Palmer, CIN vs. TEN
NOTE: Not a defense you get well against.
14. Philip Rivers, SD at DEN
15. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. BAL
16. Matt Cassel, NE at NYJ
17. David Garrard, JAC vs. BUF
NOTE: Mechanics break down in a messy pocket.
18. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN vs. IND
19. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. CHI
20. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA vs. SF
21. Brian Griese, TB vs. ATL
NOTE: Job is there to be won.
22. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. NO
NOTE: Looked dreadful in the opener.
23. Marc Bulger, STL vs. NYG
24. Chad Pennington, MIA at ARI
25. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF at SEA
NOTE: Perhaps his hardest game on schedule.
26. Trent Edwards, BUF at JAC
NOTE: Quick study, vastly improved.
27. Kerry Collins, TEN at CIN
28. JaMarcus Russell, OAK at KC
29. Matt Ryan, ATL at TB
30. Damon Huard, KC vs. OAK
31. *Joe Flacco, BAL at HOU
32. Kyle Orton, CHI at CAR
33. Seneca Wallace, SEA vs. SF
NOTE: Might see some snaps at receiver.

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. IND
NOTE: Why is he ignored as a receiver?
2. Brandon Jacobs, NYG at STL
NOTE: Blasts off with cushy matchup.
3. Willie Parker, PIT at CLE
4. Brian Westbrook, PHI at DAL
5. *Marion Barber, DAL vs. PHI
6. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at DEN
NOTE: Should play despite nagging toe injury.
7. Frank Gore, SF at SEA
8. Larry Johnson, KC vs. OAK
9. Clinton Portis, WAS vs. NO
10. Steven Jackson, STL vs. NYG
11. Earnest Graham, TB vs. ATL
NOTE: Gruden will increase the workload.
12. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at JAC
13. Reggie Bush, NO at WAS
14. *Matt Forte, CHI at CAR
15. *Ryan Grant, GB at DET
NOTE: Ideal matchup, but sore hammy.
16. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. MIA
17. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. NE
18. Michael Turner, ATL at TB
19. Chris Johnson, TEN at CIN
NOTE: Perhaps the fastest player in league.
20. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. CHI
NOTE: Fits the zone scheme well.
21. Joseph Addai, IND at MIN
22. Julius Jones, SEA vs. SF
23. Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. PIT
24. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. BUF
NOTE: Team is down three linemen.
25. Justin Fargas, OAK at KC
26. Kevin Smith, DET vs. GB
27. Ronnie Brown, MIA at ARI
28. LenDale White, TEN at CIN
NOTE: It's his ball at the goal line.
29. Laurence Maroney, NE at NYJ
NOTE: They don't trust him with full workload.
30. *Darren McFadden, OAK at KC
31. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. BAL
32. *Willis McGahee, BAL at HOU
33. Sammy Morris, NE at NYJ
34. Chris Perry, CIN vs. TEN
35. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. CHI
36. Andre Hall, DEN vs. SD
37. Pierre Thomas, NO at WAS
NOTE: The best inside runner here.
38. *Brandon Jackson, GB at DET
39. Selvin Young, DEN vs. SD
40. Ray Rice, BAL at HOU
41. Tim Hightower, ARI vs. MIA
NOTE: Goal line specialist could score 8-10 times.
42. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. BUF
43. Jerious Norwood, ATL at TB
44. Felix Jones, DAL vs. PHI
45. Ricky Williams, MIA at ARI
NOTE: Running with backups this week.
46. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. IND
47. Derrick Ward, NYG at STL
48. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. NE
49. *Darren Sproles, SD at DEN
50. *Le'Ron McClain, BAL at HOU
NOTE: Got important carries down stretch last week.
51. Kenny Watson, CIN vs. TEN
52. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. ATL
53. Dominic Rhodes, IND at MIN
54. T.J. Duckett, SEA vs. SF
NOTE: Decent shot for cheap TD.
55. Leonard Weaver, SEA vs. SF
56. Chris Taylor, HOU vs. BAL
57. Kevin Faulk, NE at NYJ
58. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT at CLE
NOTE: Baton switch could take a while.
59. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. OAK
60. Michael Pittman, DEN vs. SD
61. Ladell Betts, WAS vs. NO
62. Fred Jackson, BUF at JAC
63. Kevin Jones, CHI at CAR
64. Rudi Johnson, DET vs. GB
65. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at STL
66. Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. PIT
67. Jacob Hester, SD at DEN
68. Greg Jones, JAC vs. BUF
69. Lorenzo Booker, PHI at DAL
70. DeShaun Foster, SF at SEA
71. Mike Sellers, WAS vs. NO
72. Tashard Choice, DAL vs. PHI
73. Jason McKie, CHI at CAR
74. Michael Robinson, SF at SEA
75. *Deuce McAllister, NO at WAS
NOTE: Not worth rostering right now.

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. PHI
2. Reggie Wayne, IND at MIN
3. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. BAL
4. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. PIT
5. Plaxico Burress, NYG at STL
6. Randy Moss, NE at NYJ
7. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: Monster summer leads to monster debut.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET vs. GB
NOTE: In this instance, believe the hype.
9. Greg Jennings, GB at DET
10. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. MIA
11. Anquan Boldin, ARI vs. MIA
12. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: Deep pass is back in Jersey.
13. Roy Williams, DET vs. GB
14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. TEN
15. Santonio Holmes, PIT at CLE
16. Hines Ward, PIT at CLE
17. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. OAK
NOTE: Despite the TD, not a good opener.
18. Lee Evans, BUF at JAC
NOTE: Edwards maturation jumps him a level.
19. Torry Holt, STL vs. NYG
20. Chad Ocho Cinco, CIN vs. TEN
NOTE: Enough talk, do something on the field.
21. Roddy White, ATL at TB
22. Santana Moss, WAS vs. NO
23. Marvin Harrison, IND at MIN
24. Donald Driver, GB at DET
25. Joey Galloway, TB vs. ATL
26. Chris Chambers, SD at DEN
27. *Eddie Royal, DEN vs. SD
28. Anthony Gonzalez, IND at MIN
29. David Patten, NO at WAS
30. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. CHI
31. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. CHI
32. DeSean Jackson, PHI at DAL
33. Wes Welker, NE at NYJ
NOTE: Likely to miss Brady the most.
34. *Matt Jones, JAC vs. BUF
35. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. PHI
36. Vincent Jackson, SD at DEN
37. Justin Gage, TEN at CIN
38. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. BAL
39. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. NE
40. Derrick Mason, BAL at HOU
41. Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. IND
42. Bryant Johnson, SF at SEA
NOTE: For now, best of a mediocre lot.
43. Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. NO
44. Ronald Curry, OAK at KC
NOTE: Left yards on the field last week.
45. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. BUF
46. Devery Henderson, NO at WAS
47. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. IND
48. Mark Clayton, BAL at HOU
49. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. ATL
50. Michael Jenkins, ATL at TB
NOTE: Don't chase last week's TD.
51. Isaac Bruce, SF at SEA
52. Ted Ginn, MIA at ARI
53. Hank Baskett, PHI at DAL
54. Courtney Taylor, SEA vs. SF
55. Logan Payne, SEA vs. SF
56. Greg Camarillo, MIA at ARI
57. Steve Breaston, ARI vs. MIA
NOTE: Dynamic return guy and explosive No. 3.
58. Amani Toomer, NYG at STL
59. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. ATL
60. *Javon Walker, OAK at KC
61. Devard Darling, KC vs. OAK
62. Josh Reed, BUF at JAC
63. Lance Moore, NO at WAS
NOTE: Gets a shot with Colston out.
64. *Jerry Porter, JAC vs. BUF
65. Brandon Lloyd, CHI at CAR
66. Steve Smith, NYG at STL
67. *James Jones, GB at DET
68. *Roscoe Parrish, BUF at JAC
69. Josh Morgan, SF at SEA
70. *Josh Cribbs, CLE vs. PIT
71. Greg Lewis, PHI at DAL
72. Justin McCareins, TEN at CIN
73. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: Has more upside than Brad Smith.
74. *Darrell Jackson, DEN vs. SD
75. Rashied Davis, CHI at CAR
76. Sinorice Moss, NYG at STL
77. Robert Meachem, NO at WAS
NOTE: Is this the week he finally dresses?
78. Nate Washington, PIT at CLE
79. Antonio Chatman, CIN vs. TEN
80. Marty Booker, CHI at CAR
81. Shaun McDonald, DET vs. GB
82. Brandon Jones, TEN at CIN
83. Ashley Lelie, OAK at KC
84. *Dennis Northcutt, JAC vs. BUF
85. Syndric Steptoe, CLE vs. PIT
86. Derek Hagan, MIA at ARI
87. *Devin Hester, CHI at CAR
NOTE: Wasn't deployed much in opener.
88. Laurent Robinson, ATL at TB
89. Dane Looker, STL vs. NYG
90. Jason Avant, PHI at DAL
91. Brandon Stokley, DEN vs. SD
92. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. IND
93. Devin Thomas, WAS vs. NO
NOTE: Learning curve steep for Washington rookies.
94. Mike Furrey, DET vs. GB
95. Kelley Washington, NE at NYJ
96. Jordy Nelson, GB at DET
97. David Anderson, HOU vs. BAL
98. Dwayne Jarrett, CAR vs. CHI
99. James Hardy, BUF at JAC
100. *Jabar Gaffney, NE at NYJ
101. Reggie Brown, PHI at DAL
102. *Deion Branch, SEA vs. SF
NOTE: Shoots for Week 5 or 6 return.
103. Marques Colston, NO at WAS
NOTE: Six-week absence more likely than four.

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. PHI
NOTE: Was constantly open at Cleveland.
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. PIT
3. Jeremy Shockey, NO at WAS
NOTE: Targets will spike with Colston out.
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. OAK
5. *Antonio Gates, SD at DEN
6. *Chris Cooley, WAS vs. NO
7. Randy McMichael, STL vs. NYG
8. Heath Miller, PIT at CLE
9. L.J. Smith, PHI at DAL
10. John Carlson, SEA vs. SF
NOTE: Who else does Hasselbeck have?
11. Anthony Fasano, MIA at ARI
NOTE: Will play small-ball with Pennington.
12. Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. SD
13. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. BAL
14. Zach Miller, OAK at KC
15. Vernon Davis, SF at SEA
NOTE: High-end skills, needs more consistency.
16. *Todd Heap, BAL at HOU
17. Donald Lee, GB at DET
18. *Dante Rosario, CAR vs. CHI
NOTE: Skilled enough to use outside the formation.
19. Desmond Clark, CHI at CAR
20. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. BUF
21. Greg Olsen, CHI at CAR
22. Robert Royal, BUF at JAC
23. Alex Smith, TB vs. ATL
24. Bo Scaife, TEN at CIN
NOTE: More utility than Crumpler.
25. Chris Baker, NYJ vs. NE
26. Ben Utecht, CIN vs. TEN
27. David Thomas, NE at NYJ
28. Kevin Boss, NYG at STL
29. David Martin, MIA at ARI
30. Alge Crumpler, TEN at CIN
NOTE: Check, please.
31. Jeb Putzier, SEA vs. SF
32. Leonard Pope, ARI vs. MIA
33. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. IND
34. Bubba Franks, NYJ vs. NE
35. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. NE
36. Steve Heiden, CLE vs. PIT
37. *Benjamin Watson, NE at NYJ

Kicker
1. Nick Folk, DAL vs. PHI
2. John Carney, NYG at STL
3. Mason Crosby, GB at DET
NOTE: Indoors and against a patsy.
4. John Kasay, CAR vs. CHI
5. Jeff Reed, PIT at CLE
6. Adam Vinatieri, IND at MIN
7. Neil Rackers, ARI vs. MIA
8. Nate Kaeding, SD at DEN
9. Matt Bryant, TB vs. ATL
NOTE: Could be cut after next short miss.
10. Kris Brown, HOU vs. BAL
11. Olindo Mare, SEA vs. SF
12. Jay Feely, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: They should get him plenty of chances.
13. David Akers, PHI at DAL
14. Matt Prater, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: Can he erase bad memories of Atlanta?
15. Martin Gramatica, NO at WAS
16. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. BUF
17. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. IND
18. Nick Novak, KC vs. OAK
NOTE: At least this is a game they should win.
19. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. TEN
20. Rob Bironas, TEN at CIN
21. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. PIT
22. Stephen Gostkowski, NE at NYJ
23. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. NO
24. Jason Hanson, DET vs. GB
25. Rian Lindell, BUF at JAC
26. Robbie Gould, CHI at CAR
27. Matt Stover, BAL at HOU
28. Josh Brown, STL vs. NYG
29. Joe Nedney, SF at SEA
30. Dan Carpenter, MIA at ARI
31. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK at KC
32. *Jason Elam, ATL at TB

Defense
1. Seattle vs. San Francisco
NOTE: Downright nasty at home.
2. New York Giants at St. Louis
3. Buffalo at Jacksonville
4. Carolina vs. Chicago
NOTE: Peppers playing for free-agent bucks.
5. Houston vs. Baltimore
NOTE: Gang up on rookie QB.
6. Baltimore at Houston
7. Minnesota vs. Indianapolis
NOTE: Getting Manning at right time.
8. Tennessee at Cincinnati
9. Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
10. Chicago at Carolina
NOTE: Fast, dynamic unit when everyone is healthy.
11. Arizona vs. Miami
NOTE: Aggressive unit, and better indoors.
12. Green Bay at Detroit
13. Pittsburgh at Cleveland
14. Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
15. Dallas vs. Philadelphia
16. New York Jets vs. New England
17. New England at New York Jets
18. Indianapolis at Minnesota
19. Philadelphia at Dallas
20. San Diego at Denver
21. New Orleans at Washington
22. Denver vs. San Diego
23. Oakland at Kansas City
24. San Francisco at Seattle
25. Kansas City vs. Oakland
26. Cincinnati vs. Tennessee
27. Washington vs. New Orleans
28. Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
29. Miami at Arizona
30. Detroit vs. Green Bay
31. Atlanta at Tampa Bay
32. St. Louis vs. New York Giants

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

After fully practicing all week, Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson (knee) is listed as probable for Sunday against the Colts. He produced for fantasy owners last week, and should continue to gain consistency going forward.

Buccaneers QB Jeff Garcia has been replaced as starter by Brian Griese, with Jon Gruden and Garcia disagreeing over whether it's due to an injury or, as Garcia claims, a benching.

Titans QB Vince Young (knee, hamstring) is out on Sunday, replaced by Kerry Collins. I'd be more worried about his mental make-up going forward, after reports of an intervention on the part of the Titans being related to their fears that he was suicidal.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (right shoulder) increased his practice reps all week, practicing fully Friday, making him probable for Sunday. He's a must start given the weapons at his disposal - top 20 receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.

Running Backs

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson (toe) was held out of practice until Friday, making him questionable for Sunday. He has stated he'll "definitely" play on Sunday.

Bears RB Matt Forte (ankle) was limited in practice on Friday, but is listed as probable for Sunday. He'll face a tough Panthers defense, and could possibly lose some carries to Kevin Jones.

Packers RB Ryan Grant (hamstring) was limited in practice both Wednesday and Thursday, but put in a full practice on Friday, making him less questionable heading into a matchup with the Lions. He expects to play, and you should expect him to, too.

Saints RB Deuce McAllister (knee) is once again listed as probable this week, but full participation in practice is a good sign heading into this weekend's game against the Redskins. He was a healthy scratch in week one, though, so he's a risky play this week as Pierre Thomas seems to be the co-chair of the running back committee with Reggie Bush.

A slight rib injury has slowed Cowboys RB Marion Barber this week, but hasn't kept him out of practice. He's probable for the Monday night game against the Eagles and should see his regular workload.

Wide Receivers

Jaguars WR Jerry Porter (hamstring) is listed as questionable, but put in three straight full days of practice. He would provide a huge lift for a team sorely lacking a big-time receiver.

Javon Walker (hamstring) still isn't 100 percent but is expected to play this week, though coach Lane Kiffen says, "(Walker) won't start until he's 100 percent."

Limited all week in practice, Jets WR Laveranues Coles (thigh) is once again questionable this week. He caught only one pass for five yards last week, though he just missed a TD connection from Brett Favre and also drew an interference penalty on a long pass. Expect Coles to play against New England.

Surgery has Saints WR Marques Colston (thumb) out for this weekend, and possibly for the next four to six weeks. Look for the other Saints weapons to pick up the slack in his absence.

Seahawks WR Deion Branch (knee) continues to be slowed by injury, as he was limited in practice all week and again is listed as doubtful for Sunday.

Eagles WR Reggie Brown (hamstring) was once again limited in practice all week, and is listed as questionable on Monday night. Donovan McNabb should really be able to sling the ball around once Brown and Kevin Curtis (still out after hernia surgery) finally gets back into the fold.

Other Positions

The Colts could be in for another tough week offensively, especially with TE Dallas Clark (knee) being listed as questionable after being held out of practice for most of the week. The Vikings defense and running game could limit the Colts chances on offense - and the value of their skill players.

Patriots TE Benjamin Watson (knee) was held out of action on Wednesday and Thursday, before retuning to limited duty on Friday. He's listed as questionable this week, and is a questionable fantasy option now with QB Tom Brady going down for the season with a torn ACL and MCL.

After being held out of practice Wednesday, Redskins TE Chris Cooley (quadriceps) steadily improved and practiced fully by Friday, making him probable this weekend. This guy always comes to play, and should be solid as long as he can stay on the field against the still-soft Saints defense.

K Jason Elam (hip) is listed as questionable, but the Falcons haven't brought in another kicker. You don't want to start him until you see Atlanta produce points against a real defense (i.e., not the Lions).

By David Ferris

Playing hard or hardly playing? Teams and players have different motivations as we hit the final two weeks of the year, something we'll touch upon in this week's edition of the Market Watch.

Batters

BUY

Marco Scutaro, Utility, Blue Jays: The schedule helps here (Toronto has a juicy doubleheader Saturday), and Scutaro can cover four different positions if injuries have you scrambling for bodies. He's quietly been a major part of Toronto's late rally, hitting .313 with 19 runs and three homers over the last month, and he spends most of his time in the fantasy-friendly No. 2 position.

Denard Span, OF, Twins: Plenty of speed, a little power, a discerning eye, a line-drive bat. What took the Twins so long to realize that Span, not Carlos Gomez, was the ideal man to jump start the offense? I'll get on board with Span in 2009, expecting 100 runs, 15 homers and 35 steals. The small-market screen of the Twins will keep the price affordable.

SELL

Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers: There's been nothing wrong with his bat all season, but the injury bug has gone haywire with Bradley in the second half (back, wrist, knee, even a brief stomach virus). When storm clouds bunch overhead, get your umbrella - it's time to find an outfield replacement before the Rangers tell Bradley to pack it in for the year.

HOLD

Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians: He worried fantasy owners when his stolen bases came to a grinding halt at the end of 2007, but that hasn't been the case in this year's stretch run (10 bags over the last month). There's a 40-40 season waiting to happen with Sizemore before he hits the 30-something part of his career; he's probably never going to win a batting title, but he can dominate three categories (runs, homers, steals) and score well in the other two.

Pitchers

BUY

Jesse Litsch, SP, Blue Jays: All of Toronto's top guns are going on three days of rest this weekend in Boston, as the Jays still feel they're in the playoff hunt. Win-chasing fantasy streamers don't mind, though it's hard to predict how a pitcher will react when he's out of his normal comfort zone. Back to Litsch, he's been super in five starts since his brief Triple-A tune-up, allowing just five runs and two homers, and bumping his strikeout rate a tiny bit.

Brandon Morrow, SP, Mariners: He's had two starts in the majors, an electric one and a passable one, and he definitely looked pleasing to the eye, showing a mid-90s heater and two other usable pitches (the Yankees looked dizzy trying to hit his curveball). This could be the next breakout starter in the AL.

SELL

Anthony Reyes, SP, Indians: His sore elbow is going to cost him a second turn, and there's no reason for the Indians to take a chance here on a promising part of their future. He'll probably get shut down for the balance of the season. Make sure Reyes is scribbled high atop your 2009 sleeper list; getting away from the La Russa and Duncan Show in St. Louis has done wonders for his confidence.

HOLD

George Sherrill, RP, Orioles: He came off the disabled list Thursday and the club will press him back into the closer spot starting this weekend. Given that the Orioles have nothing really to play for at this juncture, we'll take the quick return from Sherrill as a sign that his shoulder is 100 percent. Plug and play.

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Sept. 15 to 21, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Rajai Davis, OF, Athletics: This guy usually only shows up in August and September, and this year is no different. He's been a solid source this month for runs (8), steals (3), runs batted in (8) and batting average (.310). He'll face an Angels' staff looking to rest their arms for the playoffs, and the Mariners, who have been pretty terrible all season long.

Kevin Slowey, SP, Twins: He's won five of his past six decisions, and posted an ERA of 2.37 during the past month. Four of those wins have also come during the past month, so he's pretty hot right now. He has a respectable 7.04 K/9 ratio, which should be on display when he faces the free-swinging Indians and Rays this week.

Bench 'em

Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees: He was thought to be the spark to a struggling offense trying to making yet another postseason run, but it just wasn't to be, evident by his .215 average since returning from the DL. What's worse is the fact that he's only scored five runs since his return, an obvious sign of the Yanks' general offensive woes. He could be a very nice buy low guy in '09, and may even have eligibility as a corner infielder if he makes the rumored switch to first base.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners: Queen Felix has been nearly useless the past month, posting a 5.30 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with only two wins. He's given up 34 hits in his last 28 2/3 innings, numbers that aren't acceptable for a pitcher considered by many to be an ace. He gets a lone start against the A's this week, with his recent results putting a cloud of doubt over many fantasy owners' heads, as well as their playoff hopes.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: I thought his career year was done back in July, but Guzman has bounced back nicely since recovering from some nagging injuries, posting a .407 batting average over the past month. He's at home all week during this scoring period, where he's batting .349 on the season.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers: He's played a huge role in his team climbing back atop the NL West standings, posting a 3.57 ERA during the past month. That number is solid, not spectacular, but his upcoming matchups against the Pirates and the Giants make him a much more attractive two-start option this upcoming period.

Bench 'em

Josh Willingham, OF, Marlins: Another guy who's seen a power outage this season. This Marlins outfielder has hit only two home runs during the past month to go along with a .216 batting average. He'll spend the upcoming week at home (.255 average). It's time to cut ties with him and try and make a pickup that may be able to help you salvage your playoff run.

Max Scherzer, SP, Diamondbacks: You may be enticed by his 3.00 ERA this season and 45 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched, but that was primarily in relief duty. His lone start, this week if he gets one, is against the Rockies at Coors Field. The reality is, he's only lasted six innings once in his major league career and is a good bet to get a quick hook again this week.

By David Ferris

Persistence is rewarded in fantasy baseball, as it's usually the 26-week marathon men who get the spoils in the end. Your waiver-wire maneuvering generally becomes a lot easier as 75 percent of your league is focused on the gridiron these days. We're not throwing in the towel anywhere, and you shouldn't be either.

Batters

BUY

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: Dusty Baker isn't known for his ability to handle younger players, but Votto has consistently improved, for whatever reason, as the season has gone along. He's on a .338 binge over the last month, with five homers and a couple of stolen bases, and down the road he projects to be a Derrek Lee-type of contributor (30 homers, 15 steals).

SELL

Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds: The finger injury ends his season prematurely and gives a nice screen to what's truly been a disappointing year: Phillips dropped in every significant roto category this year, losing about 15 percent to 20 percent of what he gave us in 2007. Phillips doesn't have enough discipline at the plate to help fantasy owners in batting average, and he's almost to the age where a stolen-base dip is to be expected.

HOLD

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: His power has started to fade away in the second half, but don't miss the full story. He's hitting .300 over the last month with seven steals, and his walk rate got a healthy spike in 2008. He's the genuine article and a nice building piece for anyone in a keeper group.

Pitchers

BUY

Randy Wolf, SP, Astros: A lot of pundits ripped the Astros when they moved for Wolf, and I was in that camp as well, but credit where it's due: He's quickly adjusted to his new surroundings. I'm not ready to endorse Wolf on the road, but he's got four tidy starts in the book at Minute Maid Park (3-0, 2.16 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), so let's get behind that trend for the balance of the year.

SELL

Brian Wilson, RP, Giants: He's gotten a little tired down the stretch and isn't locating his fastball early in the count, and that's a problem. As live as Wilson's arm is, most of the league can sit on a 2-0 cookie and rake it when it comes in over the plate. If you've already accumulated enough saves over the balance of the first 24 weeks, Wilson's potential for rocky innings should be enough to scare you into a change.

Barry Zito, SP, Giants: He's shown signs of life with two decent turns (14 innings, four runs, 14 strikeouts), but the crooked numbers can strike at any time on Planet Zito. If you want to scout him and reopen the case for Zito in 2009, that's fine, but don't let a title run have anything to do with him over the next two weeks.

HOLD

Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers: He's been throwing pellets for the last few weeks, and I can't imagine how Joe Torre will go to Takashi Saito as a full-time closer in a pennant race off elbow problems. Broxton still has shelf life for this year, even to redraft owners.

Dan Haren, SP, Diamondbacks: More of his mistakes are leaving the park these days, but his strikeout rate hasn't dropped - there's still dominant stuff coming from this power arm. Don't get cute and use a flavor-of-the-week over Haren down the stretch; there's no reason to think he can't turn things around quickly and give us two to three more helpful turns.

By Mark P. Stopa

"One week." If you own Steven Jackson, Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes, that's what you need to tell yourself. And you're smart to remind yourself of this if you own Willie Parker, Michael Turner or Donovan McNabb, too. In other words, don't overreact to what happened in Week 1 -- whether it was good or bad.

That said, as Patriots' fans will attest, things change quickly in the NFL. So it's important to evaluate whether events from Week 1 were a one-week fluke or the start of a trend. How do you know the difference? Concentrate on role changes and significant injuries rather than merely who had a good (or bad) game. With that in mind, here are my evaluations heading into Week 2.

Upgrade

Broncos passing offense: The Raiders were supposed to have a good pass defense. Apparently somebody forgot to tell that to Jay Cutler and Eddie Royal. The Broncos lack a dominant RB, and their passing game will be even better in the coming weeks with Brandon Marshall returning from suspension. Cutler, Marshall and Royal all look like every-week starters.

Saints receivers not named Marques Colston: Although Colston is out four to six weeks with a hand injury, the Saints will remain a pass-first offense. David Patten, Robert Meacham and Devery Henderson (in that order) all stand to benefit.

Packers offensive players: Aaron Rodgers is going to make the Pro Bowl this year in the NFC. Everyone who downgraded Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver out of fear that Rodgers would not perform at Brett Favre's level needs to move them all back up. Even Rodgers may be an every-week starter, especially if he keeps getting those QB sneaks at the goal line.

No Change

Patriots running backs: Tom Brady's injury should force the Patriots to run more. But without Brady, the Patriots won't score as often. The result for Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris should be a wash.

Colts stars: With Peyton Manning coming off of an injury, struggling in Week 1 was not unexpected. Don't overreact here - Manning, Addai, Wayne and Harrison should all be fine in the long-run. Keep an eye on Dallas Clark's knee injury, though.

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons. I know Turner looked awesome in Week 1. But he's not going to get to face the Lions at home every week. It's a long season, and with rookie Matt Ryan starting at QB, there will be plenty of games where Turner struggles. That's why, if I owned Turner, I'd be looking to trade him for somebody who was drafted before him, perhaps somebody who struggled in Week 1 (such as Braylon Edwards or Steven Jackson).

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers. If Parker has three TDs again in a game this year, I will eat the keyboard onto which I am typing this sentence. Remember, Parker had only 2 TDs all of last year, and Rashard Mendenhall is still in the picture.

Downgrades

Patriots passing offense: Check out the stats that Randy Moss and Wes Welker put up when they played with subpar quarterbacks on the Raiders and the Dolphins, respectively. It's not pretty. Even if Cassel plays better than expected, Moss will be fortunate to be a top-10 WR and Welker might not be worth starting on a weekly basis.

Broncos running backs: It seems like Mike Shanahan is content with Selvin Young, Andre Hall and Michael Pittman all splitting carries. Until that changes, or one of them gets hurt, none of them are worth starting.

Seahawks offensive players: Matt Hasselbeck is a Pro-Bowl quarterback. But he can't do it all by himself. With Nate Burleson now out for the year, the Seahawks' top four receivers are all hurt. Until Bobby Engram and/or Deion Branch come back (probably around Week 6 or 7), Hasselbeck is going to struggle. While some analysts thought that a sleeper would emerge at WR, Courtney Taylor was terrible against the Bills and Jordan Kent was apparently even worse, as he just got cut. There may be some hope for Julius Jones, who is starting at RB now that Maurice Morris sprained his MCL, but the Seahawks' offense is looking like a wasteland, at least in the short term.

Jaguars offensive players: David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are good players. But they can't perform without blocking. The Jaguars' two starting guards and their starting center are all out for several weeks, and backup offensive tackle Richard Collier was critically wounded in a drive-by shooting. Until the Jaguars get some stability on their offensive line, their skill players are not going to perform at the level we expected.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: After a strong conclusion to 2007, speculation abounded that Bradshaw would split carries with Brandon Jacobs. Unfortunately, Bradshaw barely saw the field in Week 1 and did not get a single carry. Worse yet, this came in a game that the Giants led for 60 minutes, with backup Derrick Ward getting nine carries (to Jacobs' 21). I know Bradshaw had a calf injury. Coach Tom Coughlin blamed himself after the game for Bradshaw's lack of involvement. But it seems that Bradshaw will need Jacobs or Ward to get injured before he has much value for your fantasy team.

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Updated: 9/13

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tony Romo, DAL vs. PHI
2. Jay Cutler, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: This year's breakout QB.
3. Donovan McNabb, PHI at DAL
4. Drew Brees, NO at WAS
NOTE: A star, but Colston loss hurts.
5. Brett Favre, NYJ vs. NE
6. Peyton Manning, IND at MIN
7. Aaron Rodgers, GB at DET
NOTE: Three special quarters Monday.
8. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. MIA
9. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at CLE
10. Jon Kitna, DET vs. GB
11. Derek Anderson, CLE vs. PIT
NOTE: He's better than Dallas opener suggests.
12. Eli Manning, NYG at STL
13. Matt Schaub, HOU vs. BAL
14. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA vs. SF
15. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. CHI
16. Carson Palmer, CIN vs. TEN
NOTE: Not a defense you get well against.
17. Matt Cassel, NE at NYJ
NOTE: No experience, no one knows.
18. Philip Rivers, SD at DEN
19. David Garrard, JAX vs. BUF
NOTE: Struggles when the pocket is messy.
20. Marc Bulger, STL vs. NYG
21. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN vs. IND
22. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. NO
NOTE: Looked dreadful in the opener.
23. Brian Griese, TB vs. ATL
24. Chad Pennington, MIA at ARI
25. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF at SEA
NOTE: Perhaps his hardest game on schedule.
26. Kerry Collins, TEN at CIN
27. Trent Edwards, BUF at JAC
28. JaMarcus Russell, OAK at KC
29. Damon Huard, KC vs. OAK
30. Matt Ryan, ATL at TB
31. Joe Flacco, BAL at HOU
32. Kyle Orton, CHI at CAR
33. Seneca Wallace, SEA vs. SF
NOTE: Go out for a pass, son.

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. IND
NOTE: Why is he ignored as a receiver?
2. Brian Westbrook, PHI at DAL
3. Brandon Jacobs, NYG at STL
NOTE: Blasts off with cushy matchup.
4. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at DEN
5. Ryan Grant, GB at DET
NOTE: Losing touches to Jackson, but matchup divine.
6. Willie Parker, PIT at CLE
7. *Marion Barber, DAL vs. PHI
8. Frank Gore, SF at SEA
9. Larry Johnson, KC vs. OAK
10. Clinton Portis, WAS vs. NO
11. Steven Jackson, STL vs. NYG
NOTE: Good luck with that blocking.
12. Reggie Bush, NO at WAS
13. Earnest Graham, TB vs. ATL
14. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at JAC
15. Matt Forte, CHI at CAR
NOTE: Looked legit from opening gun.
16. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. NE
17. Michael Turner, ATL at TB
18. Edgerrin James, ARI vs. MIA
19. *Chris Johnson, TEN at CIN
NOTE: How much pounding can special back take?
20. *Joseph Addai, IND at MIN
21. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. CHI
22. Julius Jones, SEA vs. SF
23. Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. PIT
24. Justin Fargas, OAK at KC
25. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX vs. BUF
NOTE: Line's a mess, and touch-count tricky.
26. LenDale White, TEN at CIN
27. Kevin Smith, DET vs. GB
28. Laurence Maroney, NE at NYJ
29. *Ronnie Brown, MIA at ARI
NOTE: Running with first team in practice.
30. Pierre Thomas, NO at WAS
31. *Ray Rice, BAL at HOU
32. Sammy Morris, NE at NYJ
33. *Willis McGahee, BAL at HOU
34. Andre Hall, DEN vs. SD
35. Brandon Jackson, GB at DET
36. *Darren McFadden, OAK at KC
37. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. CHI
NOTE: Snappy opener but Williams looks good, too.
38. Felix Jones, DAL vs. PHI
NOTE: A high-upside backup to monitor.
39. Steve Slaton, HOU vs. BAL
40. Jerious Norwood, ATL at TB
NOTE: Home-run hitter, but Turner is legit too.
41. Selvin Young, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: Too much gridlock here.
42. Fred Taylor, JAX vs. BUF
43. *Chris Perry, CIN vs. TEN
44. Tim Hightower, ARI vs. MIA
NOTE: Getting goal-line looks.
45. Ricky Williams, MIA at ARI
46. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. ATL
47. Chester Taylor, MIN vs. IND
48. Derrick Ward, NYG at STL
49. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: Went nowhere at Miami.
50. T.J. Duckett, SEA vs. SF
51. Kenny Watson, CIN vs. TEN
52. Fred Jackson, BUF at JAC
53. Le'Ron McClain, BAL at HOU
NOTE: Where did he come from?
54. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT at CLE
NOTE: Transition could take a while.
55. Leonard Weaver, SEA vs. SF
56. Ladell Betts, WAS vs. NO
57. Kevin Faulk, NE at NYJ
58. Rudi Johnson, DET vs. GB
59. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. OAK
60. Michael Pittman, DEN vs. SD
61. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG at STL
62. *Ahman Green, HOU vs. BAL
NOTE: Put a fork in him.
63. Dominic Rhodes, IND at MIN
64. Kevin Jones, CHI at CAR
65. Darren Sproles, SD at DEN
66. Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. PIT
67. Jason McKie, CHI at CAR
68. DeShaun Foster, SF at SEA
69. Justin Griffith, OAK at KC
70. Michael Bush, OAK at KC
71. Lorenzo Booker, PHI at DAL
72. LaMont Jordan, NE at NYJ
73. Jason Wright, CLE vs. PIT
74. Michael Robinson, SF at SEA

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. PHI
2. Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: Monster summer leads to monster debut.
3. Reggie Wayne, IND at MIN
4. Calvin Johnson, DET vs. GB
5. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. PIT
6. *Randy Moss, NE at NYJ
7. Plaxico Burress, NYG at STL
8. Andre Johnson, HOU vs. BAL
9. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. MIA
10. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: Deep pass comes back with Favre.
11. Anquan Boldin, ARI vs. MIA
NOTE: Has always clicked with Warner.
12. Greg Jennings, GB at DET
13. Roy Williams, DET vs. GB
14. Santonio Holmes, PIT at CLE
15. Lee Evans, BUF at JAC
16. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. TEN
17. Hines Ward, PIT at CLE
18. Roddy White, ATL at TB
NOTE: It's a ground-heavy offense now.
19. Chad Johnson, CIN vs. TEN
20. Eddie Royal, DEN vs. SD
21. Torry Holt, STL vs. NYG
NOTE: So much is wrong with this offense.
22. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. OAK
NOTE: Despite the TD, not a good opener.
23. Santana Moss, WAS vs. NO
24. DeSean Jackson, PHI at DAL
NOTE: Keep using him until we say stop.
25. Donald Driver, GB at DET
26. Chris Chambers, SD at DEN
27. Marvin Harrison, IND at MIN
28. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. PHI
NOTE: Any piece of Dallas is worth it.
29. Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: Price will never be cheaper.
30. David Patten, NO at WAS
NOTE: Role expands with Colston out.
31. Vincent Jackson, SD at DEN
32. Joey Galloway, TB vs. ATL
33. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. CHI
34. Kevin Walter, HOU vs. BAL
NOTE: Hurt most by Brady injury.
35. Wes Welker, NE at NYJ
36. Derrick Mason, BAL at HOU
37. Matt Jones, JAX vs. BUF
38. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. ATL
39. Bernard Berrian, MIN vs. IND
NOTE: Jackson is looking for him, anyway.
40. Justin Gage, TEN at CIN
NOTE: Mild bump with Collins in there.
41. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. CHI
42. Anthony Gonzalez, IND at MIN
43. Mark Clayton, BAL at HOU
44. Antwaan Randle El, WAS vs. NO
45. Bryant Johnson, SF at SEA
46. Devery Henderson, NO at WAS
NOTE: Always a chance at one big play.
47. Ronald Curry, OAK at KC
48. Michael Jenkins, ATL at TB
49. Reggie Williams, JAX vs. BUF
NOTE: Jones is a better pickup.
50. Courtney Taylor, SEA vs. SF
51. Sidney Rice, MIN vs. IND
52. Logan Payne, SEA vs. SF
53. Devard Darling, KC vs. OAK
54. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. ATL
55. Ted Ginn, MIA at ARI
NOTE: We expected more Week 1.
56. Isaac Bruce, SF at SEA
57. Greg Camarillo, MIA at ARI
58. Steve Smith, NYG at STL
59. Hank Baskett, PHI at DAL
60. Steve Breaston, ARI vs. MIA
61. Amani Toomer, NYG at STL
62. Roscoe Parrish, BUF at JAC
NOTE: Jump 12-15 spots if you get return TDs.
63. Josh Reed, BUF at JAC
64. Rashied Davis, CHI at CAR
65. Devin Hester, CHI at CAR
66. *Javon Walker, OAK at KC
NOTE: Another Raider miscalculation.
67. Shaun McDonald, DET vs. GB
68. Greg Lewis, PHI at DAL
69. Josh Morgan, SF at SEA
NOTE: Be patient here.
70. Dwayne Jarrett, CAR vs. CHI
71. Dennis Northcutt, JAX vs. BUF
72. Brandon Lloyd, CHI at CAR
73. Justin McCareins, TEN at CIN
74. Josh Cribbs, CLE vs. PIT
75. Lance Moore, NO at WAS
NOTE: If you're open, Brees finds you.
76. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. NE
77. Antonio Chatman, CIN vs. TEN
78. Jason Avant, PHI at DAL
79. Donnie Avery, STL vs. NYG
80. Ashley Lelie, OAK at KC
81. *Donte Stallworth, CLE vs. PIT
82. Nate Washington, PIT at CLE
83. Darrell Jackson, DEN vs. SD
84. Brandon Jones, TEN at CIN
85. Bobby Wade, MIN vs. IND
86. Demetrius Williams, BAL at HOU
87. Devin Thomas, WAS vs. NO
88. Robert Meachem, NO at WAS
89. Mike Furrey, DET vs. GB
90. James Hardy, BUF at JAC
91. Derek Hagan, MIA at ARI

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. PHI
NOTE: Was constantly open at Cleveland.
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. PIT
3. *Antonio Gates, SD at DEN
4. Jeremy Shockey, NO at WAS
5. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. OAK
6. L.J. Smith, PHI at DAL
7. John Carlson, SEA vs. SF
NOTE: Who else does Hasselbeck have?
8. Randy McMichael, STL vs. NYG
9. Vernon Davis, SF at SEA
10. Chris Cooley, WAS vs. NO
11. Anthony Fasano, MIA at ARI
NOTE: His skills match up with Pennington.
12. Owen Daniels, HOU vs. BAL
13. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. CHI
14. Zach Miller, OAK at KC
15. *Tony Scheffler, DEN vs. SD
16. Heath Miller, PIT at CLE
17. Marcedes Lewis, JAX vs. BUF
18. Chris Baker, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: Got paid, but there's gridlock here.
19. Alge Crumpler, TEN at CIN
20. Donald Lee, GB at DET
21. Greg Olsen, CHI at CAR
22. Todd Heap, BAL at HOU
23. Bo Scaife, TEN at CIN
24. Robert Royal, BUF at JAC
25. Kevin Boss, NYG at STL
26. Desmond Clark, CHI at CAR
27. Ben Utecht, CIN vs. TEN
28. Alex Smith, TB vs. ATL
29. David Thomas, NE at NYJ
30. David Martin, MIA at ARI
31. Leonard Pope, ARI vs. MIA
32. Bubba Franks, NYJ vs. NE
33. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN vs. IND
34. Jacob Tamme, IND at MIN
35. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. NE

Kicker
1. Nick Folk, DAL vs. PHI
2. Mason Crosby, GB at DET
NOTE: Indoors and against a patsy.
3. John Carney, NYG at STL
4. Nate Kaeding, SD at DEN
5. John Kasay, CAR vs. CHI
6. Jeff Reed, PIT at CLE
7. Matt Prater, DEN vs. SD
NOTE: Can he erase bad memories of Atlanta?
8. Neil Rackers, ARI vs. MIA
9. David Akers, PHI at DAL
10. Rob Bironas, TEN at CIN
11. Kris Brown, HOU vs. BAL
12. Adam Vinatieri, IND at MIN
13. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. NE
NOTE: They should get him plenty of chances. 14. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. PIT 15. Olindo Mare, SEA vs. SF 16. Martin Gramatica, NO at WAS 17. Ryan Longwell, MIN vs. IND 18. Rian Lindell, BUF at JAX 19. Robbie Gould, CHI at CAR 20. Matt Bryant, TB vs. ATL
NOTE: Could be cut after next short miss.
21. Matt Stover, BAL at HOU
22. Jason Hanson, DET vs. GB
23. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. TEN
24. Josh Scobee, JAX vs. BUF
25. Shaun Suisham, WAS vs. NO
26. Stephen Gostkowski, NE at NYJ
27. Josh Brown, STL vs. NYG
28. Jason Elam, ATL at TB
29. Nick Novak, KC vs. OAK
30. Joe Nedney, SF at SEA
31. Dan Carpenter, MIA at ARI
32. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK at KC

Defense
1. Seattle vs. San Francisco
NOTE: Downright nasty at home.
2. New York Giants at St. Louis
3. Buffalo at Jacksonville
4. Carolina vs. Chicago
NOTE: Peppers playing for free-agent bucks.
5. Houston vs. Baltimore
NOTE: Gang up on rookie QB.
6. Baltimore at Houston
7. Minnesota vs. Indianapolis
NOTE: Getting Manning at right time.
8. Tennessee at Cincinnati
9. Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
10. Arizona vs. Miami
11. Green Bay at Detroit
12. Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
13. Pittsburgh at Cleveland
14. Dallas vs. Philadelphia
15. Chicago at Carolina
16. New York Jets vs. New England
17. New England at New York Jets
18. Indianapolis at Minnesota
19. Philadelphia at Dallas
20. San Diego at Denver
21. New Orleans at Washington
22. Denver vs. San Diego
23. Oakland at Kansas City
24. San Francisco at Seattle
25. Kansas City vs. Oakland
26. Cincinnati vs. Tennessee
27. Washington vs. New Orleans
28. Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
29. Miami at Arizona
30. Detroit vs. Green Bay
31. Atlanta at Tampa Bay
32. St. Louis vs. New York Giants

By Michael Salfino

Let's continue with our series on baseball's lucky and unlucky players by focusing this week on Fortunate Son pitchers.

Again, I'm not meaning to use "luck" as a slur. I understand that all major league players are in the 99.9th percentile of baseball skill. Relative to each other, some seem to be lacking in ability. But relative to us, they all are gods. Pick some big leaguer you think is a scrub, and I guarantee you that if you saw him hitting fungoes or tossing the rock at the local field with mere mortals like yourself, you'd shake your head in awe.

Once you get to the show, though, it's all relative. Sometimes we think that players have extreme years relative to career numbers or scouting projections because of significant changes in their ability or dedication. But I'm convinced it's mostly random.

Baseball managers and executives generally refuse to accept the influence of chance because they'd rather believe in the supremacy of talent and their ability to control the fate of their teams (and their careers) by first identifying and then nurturing it.

Can anyone quarrel with the notion that at least a handful of the nearly 700 major league players (plus the many who shuffled on and off rosters) are certain to have been extremely lucky or unlucky in '08? In other words, their performance increases or declines can be attributed almost entirely to random chance?

Let's try to find those pitchers who were most lucky, according to stats that I believe best isolate luck: average against on balls in play (BIP), percentage of baserunners stranded, and rate of home runs on all fly balls allowed.

Next week, using some different metrics, we'll highlight unlucky hitters. Then we close out the season with lucky hitters. Let's do away with the recommendations, though all of these guys should be viewed as "Sells" for 2009. Unlike the unlucky guys, you know all of them will have jobs to begin the season and likely long leashes.

We're focusing on qualifying starters because sample sizes with relievers are too small. Thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for the data and HardballTimes.com for the ease with which it can be analyzed.

John Lackey, Angels: The average pitcher allows about a .300 average on balls in play (BIP). Lackey this year is at .269, knocking about three-quarters of a run off his ERA. Note the Angels defense is allowing a .300 average on BIP. Interestingly, Lackey seems to have been very unlucky in homers (16.9 percent of fly balls clear the wall, 8.8 percent last year).

Armando Galarraga, Tigers: The league's BIP average versus him is .239. You can credit the pitcher, if you want, but history shows most pitchers' BIP averages widely fluctuate in a seemingly random way.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox: BIP average against is .242. The K-rate is OK now (6.5/9). But increases there in '08 have been more than offset by an elevated walk rate.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox: BIP this year is .265; last year it was the .299 we'd expect. If he's harder to hit, why are the Ks down? His command is better, you say? But the walks are up. Also note that 80 percent of his baserunners have been stranded (average is 70 percent). Normalize these things and his ERA this year is, gulp, 4.89.

Joe Saunders, Angels: What can be more random than allowing a .330 BIP last year versus .264 in '08?

Jake Peavy, Padres: His home park seems to suppress BIP, similar to the Oakland Coliseum. His strand rate has ranged from 73 to 84 percent and this year sits at the high end of his spectrum - 83.3 percent.

Johan Santana, Mets: The Ks are down 20 percent, despite going to the league where the pitcher hits. But his strand rate is an all-time-high 82 percent. Note his BIP allowed is always consistently well above average, so assume that there's mostly skill involved here.

Cliff Lee, Indians: When you win 21 of 28 starts, you're lucky, since wins are a team stat. In another era, Lee would be threatening 30 wins for a team that isn't even .500. Consider that Denny McLain won 31 games in 41 starts in '68.

Dana Eveland, A's: Yes, he's a ground-ball pitcher, but that's why we look at homers allowed as a percentage of fly balls hit. Eveland's rate is 6.6 percent - about one-third lower than average.

Mike Pelfrey, Mets: Another ground-ball specialist with much better stuff than Eveland. But red flag any pitcher with a rate of homers on fly balls under 7 percent. Pelfrey's is 6.9. Last year, it was 10.5 percent, about average. If that was his '08 rate, he'd have allowed five more homers. Since 1.85 runs score on an average homer, that's about nine more runs allowed and, assuming they're all earned, a readjusted ERA of 4.07 (actual is now 3.62).

By David Ferris

Next Update: 9/16

First Base/DH
1. Mark Teixeira, Angels
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
3. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Might get elbow fixed after season.
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Justin Morneau, Twins
6. Ryan Howard, Phillies
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
NOTE: Admits he's not 100 percent healthy.
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
10. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Career year could make him 2009 pricy.
11. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
12. Carlos Delgado, Mets
13. Derrek Lee, Cubs
14. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
15. Jason Giambi, Yankees
16. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
18. Joey Votto, Reds
19. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
20. Paul Konerko, White Sox
NOTE: Nifty rally over last month.
21. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
22. Casey Kotchman, Braves
23. Jim Thome, White Sox
24. Kevin Millar, Orioles
25. *Travis Hafner, Indians
26. Martin Prado, Braves
27. Brian LaHair, Mariners

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NOTE: Belongs in MVP discussion.
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
7. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
8. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
9. Jose Lopez, Mariners
NOTE: One of few Seattle highlights.
10. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
11. Placido Polanco, Tigers
12. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
13. Omar Infante, Braves
14. Kelly Johnson, Braves
15. Willie Harris, Nationals
16. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
17. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
NOTE: More relaxed at bottom of order.
18. Nick Punto, Twins
19. *Mark Ellis, Athletics
20. Luis Rodriguez, Padres
21. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
22. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
23. Alexi Casilla, Twins
24. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
25. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
26. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
27. Ray Durham, Brewers
28. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
29. Luis Castillo, Mets
30. Eugenio Velez, Giants

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
NOTE: He's answered boo-birds and then some.
4. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
7. *Mike Aviles, Royals
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
10. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
12. Miguel Tejada, Astros
13. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
14. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
15. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
16. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
17. Yunel Escobar, Braves
18. Emmanuel Burriss, Giants
NOTE: Has the spot for 2009.
19. Erick Aybar, Angels
20. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
21. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
22. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
NOTE: A sad "what could have been" story.
23. Jason Bartlett, Rays
24. Clint Barmes, Rockies
25. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. Juan Uribe, White Sox
28. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers

Third Base
1. David Wright, Mets
NOTE: Pennant pressure doesn't faze him.
2. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
NOTE: Gets himself out too much.
7. Chone Figgins, Angels
8. Ian Stewart, Rockies
9. *Evan Longoria, Rays
10. *Chipper Jones, Braves
11. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Shoulder feeling better of late.
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
14. Chris Davis, Rangers
15. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. Casey Blake, Dodgers
18. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
19. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
20. Ryan Garko, Indians
21. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Injury nicks ruin a mad run.
22. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
23. *Melvin Mora, Orioles
24. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
25. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
26. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
28. Willy Aybar, Rays
29. Geoff Blum, Astros
30. Rich Aurilia, Giants
31. Jack Hannahan, Athletics
32. Andy Marte, Indians

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: And we still haven't seen his best yet.
2. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
NOTE: I Love LA.
3. Matt Holliday, Rockies
4. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
5. Jason Bay, Red Sox
6. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
9. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
10. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
NOTE: Do-it-all igniter, still on escalator.
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Corey Hart, Brewers
13. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
14. Xavier Nady, Yankees
15. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
16. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
17. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
18. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
19. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
20. Johnny Damon, Yankees
21. Hunter Pence, Astros
22. *B.J. Upton, Rays
23. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
24. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
25. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
26. Nate McLouth, Pirates
27. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
28. Shane Victorino, Phillies
29. Torii Hunter, Angels
30. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
NOTE: A 25-25 season waiting to happen.
31. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
32. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
33. Pat Burrell, Phillies
34. Aaron Rowand, Giants
35. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: Another toolsy guy in Washington outfield.
36. Randy Winn, Giants
37. Willy Taveras, Rockies
38. Denard Span, Twins
39. Jayson Werth, Phillies
40. *Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
41. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
42. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
43. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
44. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
45. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
46. Jay Bruce, Reds
47. Jason Kubel, Twins
48. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
NOTE: Like Frampton, he's coming alive.
49. Rajai Davis, Athletics
NOTE: Sneaky speed for the stretch run.
50. Fred Lewis, Giants
51. *Jose Guillen, Royals
52. Adam Jones, Orioles
53. Delmon Young, Twins
54. Ben Francisco, Indians
55. Jack Cust, Athletics
NOTE: The ultimate "three true outcomes" guy.
56. Luke Scott, Orioles
57. Chase Headley, Padres
58. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
59. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
60. *Michael Bourn, Astros
61. David DeJesus, Royals
62. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
63. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
64. Nick Swisher, White Sox
NOTE: Needed more with Quentin injury.
65. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
66. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
67. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
68. *Garret Anderson, Angels
69. *Jody Gerut, Padres
70. Eric Hinske, Rays
71. Ken Griffey, White Sox
72. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
73. Matt Joyce, Tigers
74. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Should have stayed in minors longer.
75. *Marcus Thames, Tigers
76. Mark Teahen, Royals
77. Josh Anderson, Braves
78. Cody Ross, Marlins
79. Juan Rivera, Angels
80. Josh Willingham, Marlins
81. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Change of scenery would make sense.
82. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
83. Brian Giles, Padres
84. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
85. Gregor Blanco, Braves
86. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
NOTE: Stock collapsed in second half.
87. Ryan Church, Mets
88. Reed Johnson, Cubs
89. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
90. Fernando Tatis, Mets
91. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
92. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
93. Darin Erstad, Astros
94. Daniel Murphy, Mets
95. Ross Gload, Royals
96. *David Murphy, Rangers
97. Gary Matthews, Angels
98. Dexter Fowler, Rockies

Catchers
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Geovany Soto, Cubs
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
6. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
NOTE: They'll ride him during pennant race.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. Victor Martinez, Indians
NOTE: Finally hit one out.
11. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
14. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
15. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
16. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
NOTE: Demands of season are taking a toll.
17. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
18. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
19. Jeff Clement, Mariners
20. Mike Napoli, Angels
21. Gerald Laird, Rangers
22. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
23. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
24. Jesus Flores, Nationals
25. John Baker, Marlins
26. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
27. Miguel Olivo, Royals
28. Brian Schneider, Mets
29. John Buck, Royals
30. Jeff Mathis, Angels

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Next Update: 9/16

Starting Pitchers
1. CC Sabathia, Brewers
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
NOTE: It's his trophy to win.
3. Johan Santana, Mets
4. Cliff Lee, Indians
5. Jake Peavy, Padres
6. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
7. Cole Hamels, Phillies
8. Francisco Liriano, Twins
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
10. James Shields, Rays
11. Scott Kazmir, Rays
12. Ervin Santana, Angels
13. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Hasn't looked right for a month.
14. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
15. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
16. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
17. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
NOTE: On a roll and they're still in it.
18. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
19. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
20. Roy Oswalt, Astros
21. John Lackey, Angels
22. Edinson Volquez, Reds
23. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
24. Josh Johnson, Marlins
25. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: The finger is fine, thanks.
26. John Danks, White Sox
27. Matt Cain, Giants
28. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
29. Kevin Slowey, Twins
30. Brett Myers, Phillies
NOTE: Different pitcher since recall.
31. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
32. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
33. Mike Mussina, Yankees
34. Ben Sheets, Brewers
35. Jon Lester, Red Sox
36. *Rich Harden, Cubs
NOTE: How much will be pitch down the stretch?
37. Ted Lilly, Cubs
38. Matt Garza, Rays
39. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
40. Manny Parra, Brewers
41. Brandon Morrow, Mariners
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
42. Justin Verlander, Tigers
43. Paul Maholm, Pirates
44. Aaron Cook, Rockies
45. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
46. Joe Saunders, Angels
47. Oliver Perez, Mets
48. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
49. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
50. *Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Violent mechanics but max strikeout potential.
51. Scott Baker, Twins
52. *Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
53. Pedro Martinez, Mets
54. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
55. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
56. *Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
57. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
58. *Jered Weaver, Angels
59. Zack Greinke, Royals
60. David Bush, Brewers
61. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
62. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
63. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
64. Gil Meche, Royals
65. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
66. *David Price, Rays
NOTE: Desperate club needs to make a move.
67. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
68. Scott Olsen, Marlins
69. *Anthony Reyes, Indians
70. David Purcey, Blue Jays
71. Braden Looper, Cardinals
72. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
73. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
74. Joe Blanton, Phillies
75. Greg Maddux, Dodgers
76. Randy Wolf, Astros
NOTE: Useful at home.
77. Nick Blackburn, Twins
78. Jon Garland, Angels
79. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
80. Jeff Francis, Rockies
81. Jorge Campillo, Braves
82. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
83. Aaron Harang, Reds
84. Ian Snell, Pirates
NOTE: Impossible to predict at this point.
85. Glen Perkins, Twins
86. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
87. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
88. Jason Marquis, Cubs
89. Chris Volstad, Marlins
NOTE: Not dominant, but a bright future.
90. *Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
91. *Johnny Cueto, Reds
92. Edwin Jackson, Rays
93. Tim Redding, Nationals
94. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
95. Kevin Correia, Giants
96. Odalis Perez, Nationals
97. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
98. Brian Moehler, Astros
99. Zach Miner, Tigers
100. *Vicente Padilla, Rangers
101. Fausto Carmona, Indians
NOTE: Command of sinker hasn't returned.

Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Brad Lidge, Phillies
5. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
6. Jose Valverde, Astros
NOTE: Untouchable for six weeks.
7. Joakim Soria, Royals
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. Brian Wilson, Giants
10. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
11. Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: Panic on the North Side.
12. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Salomon Torres, Brewers
15. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
16. Chris Perez, Cardinals
17. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
18. Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: No bumps upon return.
19. Frank Francisco, Rangers
NOTE: Settling into new role nicely.
20. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
NOTE: What happens when Saito returns?
21. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
22. Jensen Lewis, Indians
23. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
24. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
25. *Troy Percival, Rays
26. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
27. Luis Ayala, Mets
NOTE: With Wagner setback, he's the guy.
28. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
29. Dan Wheeler, Rays
30. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
31. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
32. Grant Balfour, Rays
33. Joe Nelson, Marlins
NOTE: He's in the mix while Gregg is out.
34. Huston Street, Athletics
35. *George Sherrill, Orioles
36. Joey Devine, Athletics
37. *Jim Johnson, Orioles
38. *Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
39. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
40. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
NOTE: Expected to work in relief.
41. *Kevin Gregg, Marlins
42. Heath Bell, Padres
43. Rafael Perez, Indians
44. Aaron Heilman, Mets
45. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
46. John Grabow, Pirates
47. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
48. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
NOTE: Might return this weekend.
49. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
50. Jerry Blevins, Athletics
51. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
52. Scot Shields, Angels
53. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
54. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
55. Chad Durbin, Phillies
56. Damaso Marte, Yankees
57. J.P. Howell, Rays
58. Kyle Farnsworth, Tigers
59. Eddie Guardado, Twins

By Michael Salfino

The official departure of Tom Brady from the 2008 season completely changes the NFL landscape and raises questions about the value of a quarterback of Brady's caliber and the challenges faced by a backup stepping into the starting spotlight for the first time since high school.

There are two jobs for which no prior experience can qualify you: President of the United States and starting NFL QB. They are sui generis, meaning the only examples of their kind.

No position in sports is remotely as important as quarterback in football. Consider that the teams that averaged more yards per pass than their opponent were 14-2 in Week 1. Usually, winning that stat gets you the game about 80 percent of the time.

The Patriots are not the first team with Super Bowl aspirations to lose their leader early.

In 1999, Vinny Testaverde's season ended to a torn Achilles when pivoting for a handoff to Curtis Martin in the opener versus the Patriots. The Jets finished 8-8, but were a very dangerous team after abandoning backup Rick Mirer in favor of hybrid wide receiver Ray Lucas.

Back in 1991, Randall Cunningham tore his ACL Week 1 at Green Bay, was replaced by Super Bowl veteran Jim McMahon, and the Eagles finished with the same 10-6 record as the prior year mostly due to a playmaking defense.

More relevant to the New England situation, I think, is Dan Marino's torn Achilles in 1993 in Cleveland. The Dolphins were 4-1 with him but lost six of 11 games with Scott Mitchell and Steve DeBerg under center and at opposite ends of the experience spectrum.

Marino's injury that year reasonably cost the Dolphins three wins over those last 11 weeks. Over the next 15 games, the Patriots very likely will pay at least that high a price and probably closer to five games.

"But the Patriots were 16-0 last year," you say. Yes, but regression to the mean says they were likely to be 13-3 or so this year with Brady, considering their losses on defense and age there. Let's call it a four-game deficit and predict the Patriots will finish 2008 at 9-7, sans Brady.

The Patriots faithful should consider that the Vikings might be the best team in football excluding QB, but will be lucky to finish 9-7 due to deficiencies there.

The 1990 Giants? Phil Simms went out that year in Week 15. The 1999 Rams? Kurt Warner replaced the injured Trent Green in the preseason and led a record-shattering offense to a Super Bowl trophy and league MVP honors. I'd say he started as a senior in college and for two years in the Arena Football League. But no one remotely saw that one coming.

Maybe Pats backup Matt Cassel is Warner or even Brady, who famously replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe, and the Patriots won the Super Bowl anyway. But Bledoe was far from an elite player then.

Heck, maybe the Patriots are so much smarter than everyone else that they can just replace Lou Gehrig with another Lou Gehrig. Cassel has a strong arm; Phil Simms said yesterday that watching him throw you wonder how he never earned a starting gig at USC. But arm strength is far down the list of essential QB qualities.

Now let's continue the New England theme into the recommendations.

Buy

Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets: Like Hines Ward, a possible No. 1 receiver overshadowed by a more sporty teammate (Jerricho Cotchery for him, Santonio Holmes for Ward). Coles is hobbling now and undervalued by most after an injury-plagued 2007 and summer.

Earnest Graham, RB, Bucs: Jon Gruden said yesterday he blew it by not giving the ball more to Graham (10 carries, 91 yards). He promised to correct that going forward. Graham also gets goal-line action.

Bills defense/Special Teams: There are multiple playmakers here in the return game and Roscoe Parrish, the best of them, is poised for a Devin Hester 2007/Dante Hall 2003-type of season.

Hold

Vikings run defense: The Packers had four cracks inside the Vikings' one and had no chance on any of them. Later, they wisely spread the Vikes out via formation and found a crack on a QB sneak. League, take note.

Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots: If it wasn't the Patriots betting on him, I'd say, "No chance." Still, a huge long-shot to produce enough to even keep the job in favor of some currently unrostered veteran.

Sell

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: He'll have more chances to beat coverage as teams blitz Cassel early and often. But if Cassel doesn't prove to be a quick thinker, the Patriots will keep more guys in to block, meaning less receivers and doubling Moss even on blitzes.

Jaguars offense: Both starting guards are out, possibly for the year. And starting center Brad Meester remains sidelined until October, at least. No wonder David Garrard was sacked seven times in Jacksonville.

By Michael Salfino

Tom Brady's season-ending torn ACL (first reported by Michael Silver of Yahoo!) is sending shockwaves throughout the NFL.

With the Patriots, who knows when (if) the news will become official. But proceed accordingly. Matt Cassell is not an insurance play. The only insurance you need if you own Brady, Randy Moss or even Wes Welker in a fantasy league is life insurance, because your season, while not yet post-mortem, is at least on the crash cart.

The second week is always the acid test for backups like Cassell. Then they have to think and play rather than just winging it. NFL QBs have to be comfortable enough with everything to do their thinking before the snap. After the snap, there's only time for informed reaction.

As for the rest of Sunday's action:

The Receiver Formerly Known as Chad Johnson (1 catch, 22 yards) couldn't change his jersey name to Ocho Cinco because the league was going to force him to buy back all the Chad Johnson jerseys that were printed after the deadline for changing your name. (Can't believe there's a deadline for that.) Before they go to press, may I suggest instead "Ocho Stinko." Note to Chad: You have to do nutty stuff like this when you're on the way up professionally, not on the way down. Now you just seem like a professional wrestler. Recommendation to avoid all Bengals remains unchanged.

"Chad Pennington in the Shotgun" is an oxymoron. When he's taking the long snap from center on third downs, it's more aptly called "the popgun." As always, the spirit was willing with Chad. But the arm is just too weak.

After Week One, fantasy owners all across America are saying, "I hope my guys are playing the Lions and the Rams next week."

Detroit: 300-plus yards rushing allowed? You're not Kansas State and the Falcons aren't Nebraska. Tighten it up a little, boys. Make the holes small enough for a Hummer to drive through, at least, instead of a Mack truck.

As for the Rams, who allowed 25 TD passes last year, Donovan McNabb could have thrown for 600 yards if he felt like it with a cast of rookie, journeymen and second-team receivers. Drooling in the on-deck circle: Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress.

Willie Parker was trashed here all summer and then busts out. Good for him. But anyone who paid the preseason price stepped in it because a guy coming off a bad year and a major injury with a No. 1 pick as a backfield mate is never an educated pick.

Hines Ward was strictly a system pick. When there is no clear No. 1 receiver and the world likes one guy (Santonio Holmes) way better, take the other guy always at a steep discount (about three rounds, in my home league). If you missed that ship now sailing, target Laveranues Coles, who was banged up this week and will start returning a tidy profit by the end of the month.

Pierre Thomas is the two in the Saints one-two punch running attack. But the one - Reggie Bush -- is a weak runner who likely will rotate off the field in goal-line situations. Bush piles up rushing yardage East-West, which, of course, doesn't count. He can be an impactful receiver, though (8-112-1 Sunday).

The Titans' Chris Johnson will be Bush at half the price. Of course, that means that LenDale White is Thomas at more than twice the price.

Warrick Dunn has switched teams, but continues to take carries away from more worthy runners. Earnest Graham averaged nine yards per carry but got only 10 tries (to Dunn's 9) in game that was close all the way.

Offensively, alarm bells are ringing for the Seahawks and the Browns. Seattle has multiple receivers out with injuries and lost another, Nate Burleson (knee), indefinitely. Cleveland looked out of synch all day. Perhaps the Cowboys have a dominant defense, but it's too early to assume that. Watch Cleveland and especially QB Derek Anderson closely next week (home versus Pittsburgh).

David Garrard was certain to regress to the mean with the interceptions (just three last year). But I thought he had turned a corner in '07 when it came to pocket awareness. Sunday, he was dumped seven times by the Titans. This is most troubling for the Jaguars.

Cowboys rookie RB Felix Jones (9-62-1) is clearly the backup who is an injury away from exploding like Larry Johnson did in 2005 for the then similarly high-powered Chiefs. Get him and hold him just in case.

The teams that averaged more yards per pass attempt (YPA, including sack yards) than their opponents were 11-2 heading into Sunday night. Typically, about 80 percent of teams that win this stat win the game, but you never hear about it on the TV broadcasts.

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every
10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Updated: 9/10

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE vs. KC
2. Tony Romo, DAL at CLE
NOTE: Entire offense is licking its chops.
3. Drew Brees, NO vs. TB
4. Kurt Warner, ARI at SF
5. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. HOU
6. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. STL
7. Jon Kitna, DET at ATL
NOTE: How bad can he be with those wideouts?
8. *Peyton Manning, IND vs. CHI
NOTE: Yes in a common league, no in a challenge contest.
9. *Carson Palmer, CIN at BAL
NOTE: Messy summer doesn't inspire confidence.
10. Derek Anderson, CLE vs. DAL
11. Matt Schaub, HOU at PIT
12. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN
13. Brett Favre, NYJ at MIA
14. Jay Cutler, DEN at OAK
NOTE: He's without Marshall this week.
15. *Jeff Garcia, TB at NO
16. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. ARI
NOTE: Mike Martz's most ambitious challenge yet.
17. David Garrard, JAC at TEN
18. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at BUF
19. Marc Bulger, STL at PHI
20. Philip Rivers, SD vs. CAR
21. *Vince Young, TEN vs. JAC
22. Chad Pennington, MIA vs. NYJ
23. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN at GB
24. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. DET
NOTE: They won't ask for miracles right away.
25. Jake Delhomme, CAR at SD
26. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. SEA
27. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. DEN
28. Kyle Orton, CHI at IND
NOTE: Looked good in August, but let's see it again.
29. Brodie Croyle, KC at NE
30. Joe Flacco, BAL vs. CIN

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. CAR
2. Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. STL
3. Marion Barber, DAL at CLE
4. Adrian Peterson, MIN at GB
5. Joseph Addai, IND vs. CHI
6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. SEA
NOTE: They'll pound the rock in all situations.
7. Frank Gore, SF vs. ARI
8. Michael Turner, ATL vs. DET
9. Steven Jackson, STL at PHI
10. Earnest Graham, TB at NO
11. Willie Parker, PIT vs. HOU
12. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at TEN
13. *Ricky Williams, MIA vs. NYJ
14. Thomas Jones, NYJ at MIA
NOTE: Line improved, but a sluggish summer.
15. Laurence Maroney, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Is he truly a lead back?
16. Larry Johnson, KC at NE
NOTE: Target on his back this week.
17. Edgerrin James, ARI at SF
18. *Ryan Grant, GB vs. MIN
NOTE: Yes, Minnesota's run-stopping is that good.
19. Reggie Bush, NO vs. TB
20. Darren McFadden, OAK vs. DEN
21. *Ray Rice, BAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Bump 5-7 spots if McGahee is scratched.
22. Selvin Young, DEN at OAK
23. Kevin Smith, DET at ATL
24. *Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. DAL
NOTE: Did some work Friday, remains iffy.
25. LenDale White, TEN vs. JAC
26. Matt Forte, CHI at IND
27. Chris Perry, CIN at BAL
28. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at SD
29. Fred Taylor, JAC at TEN
30. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at SD
31. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Too risky to count on.
32. Justin Fargas, OAK vs. DEN
33. Maurice Morris, SEA at BUF
34. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. JAC
35. *Ronnie Brown, MIA vs. NYJ
36. *Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. DAL
37. Felix Jones, DAL at CLE
NOTE: He should get a sizeable role right away.
38. Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. DET
39. Leon Washington, NYJ at MIA
40. Chester Taylor, MIN at GB
41. Andre Hall, DEN at OAK
42. *Kenny Watson, CIN at BAL
43. Warrick Dunn, TB at NO
44. Steve Slaton, HOU at PIT
45. Julius Jones, SEA at BUF
46. *Ahman Green, HOU at PIT
47. LaMont Jordan, NE vs. KC
48. Tim Hightower, ARI at SF
NOTE: Mandatory handcuff for James owners.
49. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. HOU
50. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. TB
51. Sammy Morris, NE vs. KC
52. Fred Jackson, BUF vs. SEA
53. Dominic Rhodes, IND vs. CHI
54. Michael Bush, OAK vs. DEN
55. *Deuce McAllister, NO vs. TB
NOTE: Body has been through too much.
56. Brandon Jackson, GB vs. MIN
57. Darren Sproles, SD vs. CAR
58. Jason Wright, CLE vs. DAL
59. *Lorenzo Booker, PHI vs. STL
60. Michael Pittman, DEN at OAK
61. Leonard Weaver, SEA at BUF
62. Kevin Jones, CHI at IND
63. Mike Hart, IND vs. CHI
64. *Rudi Johnson, DET at ATL
65. Chris Taylor, HOU at PIT
66. Correll Buckhalter, PHI vs. STL
67. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. HOU
68. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. ARI
69. Adrian Peterson, CHI at IND
70. Jacob Hester, SD vs. CAR
71. DeDe Dorsey, CIN at BAL

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL at CLE
NOTE: I'll be shocked if he doesn't score.
2. Randy Moss, NE vs. KC
3. Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. DAL
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at SF
5. Andre Johnson, HOU at PIT
6. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. CHI
7. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at BAL
8. Marques Colston, NO vs. TB
9. Anquan Boldin, ARI at SF
10. Wes Welker, NE vs. KC
11. Calvin Johnson, DET at ATL
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
12. *Chad Johnson, CIN at BAL
13. Torry Holt, STL at PHI
14. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. HOU
15. Roy Williams, DET at ATL
16. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at MIA
17. Nate Burleson, SEA at BUF
18. Greg Jennings, GB vs. MIN
19. Roddy White, ATL vs. DET
NOTE: Offense won't attack with rookie QB.
20. Dwayne Bowe, KC at NE
21. Hines Ward, PIT vs. HOU
22. Lee Evans, BUF vs. SEA
23. *Joey Galloway, TB at NO
NOTE: Nothing this summer but he does own the matchup.
24. Donald Driver, GB vs. MIN
25. Patrick Crayton, DAL at CLE
NOTE: Role expands with so many WRs hurt.
26. Chris Chambers, SD vs. CAR
27. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ at MIA
28. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at SD
29. *Reggie Williams, JAC at TEN
30. Bernard Berrian, MIN at GB
31. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. STL
NOTE: Could be an exception to rookie rules.
32. Marvin Harrison, IND vs. CHI
33. Kevin Walter, HOU at PIT
34. Ted Ginn, MIA vs. NYJ
NOTE: Pennington makes him viable now.
35. *D.J. Hackett, CAR at SD
NOTE: Likely to play.
36. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. CAR
37. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. DEN
38. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Hard to trust with rookie QB.
39. Justin Gage, TEN vs. JAC
40. *Antonio Bryant, TB at NO
NOTE: Get him on your sleeper list.
41. *Darrell Jackson, DEN at OAK
42. Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. CHI
43. Sidney Rice, MIN at GB
44. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. CIN
45. Courtney Taylor, SEA at BUF
NOTE: Hasselbeck has to throw to someone.
46. Drew Bennett, STL at PHI
47. Bryant Johnson, SF vs. ARI
48. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. ARI
49. Eddie Royal, DEN at OAK
50. Jabar Gaffney, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Strong rapport with Brady.
51. David Patten, NO vs. TB
52. Devin Hester, CHI at IND
53. Rashied Davis, CHI at IND
54. Donte Stallworth, CLE vs. DAL
55. Robert Meachem, NO vs. TB
56. Matt Jones, JAC at TEN
NOTE: By default, he's still around.
57. *Javon Walker, OAK vs. DEN
58. Greg Camarillo, MIA vs. NYJ
NOTE: Now considered their No. 2.
59. Josh Morgan, SF vs. ARI
60. Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. DET
61. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. STL
62. Brandon Stokley, DEN at OAK
63. Derek Hagan, MIA vs. NYJ
64. Brandon Lloyd, CHI at IND
65. Dwayne Jarrett, CAR at SD
66. Nate Washington, PIT vs. HOU
67. Dennis Northcutt, JAC at TEN
68. Jason Hill, SF vs. ARI
NOTE: The deepest of the viable SF sleepers.
69. Mike Furrey, DET at ATL
70. Roscoe Parrish, BUF vs. SEA
71. Devard Darling, KC at NE
72. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. JAC
73. Laurent Robinson, ATL vs. DET
74. Ernest Wilford, MIA vs. NYJ
75. *Josh Cribbs, CLE vs. DAL
76. Steve Breaston, ARI at SF
77. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. JAC
78. Demetrius Williams, BAL vs. CIN
79. *Michael Clayton, TB at NO
80. Logan Payne, SEA at BUF
81. Marty Booker, CHI at IND
82. Brian Finneran, ATL vs. DET
83. Josh Reed, BUF vs. SEA
84. Ike Hilliard, TB at NO
NOTE: Knows the scheme, but diminished skills.
85. Mark Bradley, CHI at IND
86. Andre Davis, HOU at PIT
87. Shaun McDonald, DET at ATL
88. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. DEN
89. James Hardy, BUF vs. SEA
90. Devery Henderson, NO vs. TB
91. Arnaz Battle, SF vs. ARI
92. Antonio Chatman, CIN at BAL
93. Mike Walker, JAC at TEN
94. Jason Avant, PHI vs. STL
95. *Donnie Avery, STL at PHI
NOTE: Fair chance he won't go.
96. Reggie Brown, PHI vs. STL
NOTE: He's scratched, along with Curtis.

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL at CLE
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. DAL
3. Dallas Clark, IND vs. CHI
NOTE: Underrated puzzle piece and matchup weapon.
4. Owen Daniels, HOU at PIT
5. Tony Gonzalez, KC at NE
6. *Antonio Gates, SD vs. CAR
NOTE: The key to the entire offense; should go.
7. Tony Scheffler, DEN at OAK
NOTE: Cutler's roommate on the road.
8. Jeremy Shockey, NO vs. TB
9. *Todd Heap, BAL vs. CIN
10. Zach Miller, OAK vs. DEN
NOTE: Quickly becoming a go-to guy.
11. Donald Lee, GB vs. MIN
12. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. JAC
13. Heath Miller, PIT vs. HOU
14. Vernon Davis, SF vs. ARI
15. L.J. Smith, PHI vs. STL
NOTE: Could see more work with WRs hurt.
16. Randy McMichael, STL at PHI
NOTE: Can Al Saunders make him viable?
17. Greg Olsen, CHI at IND
18. Ben Utecht, CIN at BAL
19. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at TEN
20. Dustin Keller, NYJ at MIA
NOTE: Put him on your monitor list.
21. *Desmond Clark, CHI at IND
22. *David Thomas, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Needed with Watson dinged up.
23. Anthony Fasano, MIA vs. NYJ
24. John Carlson, SEA at BUF
25. Dante Rosario, CAR at SD
26. Leonard Pope, ARI at SF
27. Jeff King, CAR at SD
28. Michael Gaines, DET at ATL
29. *Ben Watson, NE vs. KC
30. Alex Smith, TB at NO
31. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. JAC
32. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at GB
33. Robert Royal, BUF vs. SEA

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. CAR
NOTE: Set-up couldn't be better.
2. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Go where the points are.
3. Nick Folk, DAL at CLE
4. Adam Vinatieri, IND vs. CHI
5. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. HOU
6. David Akers, PHI vs. STL
NOTE: Tied to a favorite, that's a plus.
7. Josh Scobee, JAC at TEN
8. Mason Crosby, GB vs. MIN
9. Shayne Graham, CIN at BAL
10. *Phil Dawson, CLE vs. DAL
11. Mike Nugent, NYJ at MIA
12. Matt Prater, DEN at OAK
13. Jason Hanson, DET at ATL
14. Ryan Longwell, MIN at GB
15. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. JAC
NOTE: Perfect storm kicker seasons seldom repeat.
16. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. TB
17. Matt Stover, BAL vs. CIN
18. Jason Elam, ATL vs. DET
19. Joe Nedney, SF vs. ARI
20. Rian Lindell, BUF vs. SEA
21. Neil Rackers, ARI at SF
22. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. DEN
23. Matt Bryant, TB at NO
24. Dan Carpenter, MIA vs. NYJ
25. Olindo Mare, SEA at BUF
26. Kris Brown, HOU at PIT
27. Robbie Gould, CHI at IND
NOTE: How can you trust his offense right now?
28. Josh Brown, STL at PHI
NOTE: In time, he'll miss the Seattle backdrop.
29. John Kasay, CAR at SD
30. Nick Novak, KC at NE

Defense
1. New England vs. Kansas City
NOTE: Say cheese, Brodie.
2. San Diego vs. Carolina
3. Green Bay vs. Minnesota
4. Minnesota at Green Bay
5. Philadelphia vs. St. Louis
NOTE: Blitz packages will tee off on Bulger.
6. Buffalo vs. Seattle
7. Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
8. Dallas at Cleveland
9. Arizona at San Francisco
NOTE: Martz will expose his QB most weeks.
10. Jacksonville at Tennessee
11. Pittsburgh vs. Houston
12. Indianapolis vs. Chicago
NOTE: Stadium opener, and Orton matchup helps.
13. Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
14. Seattle at Buffalo
15. New York Jets at Miami
16. Denver at Oakland
17. Carolina at San Diego
18. New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
19. San Francisco vs. Arizona
20. Oakland vs. Denver
21. Chicago at Indianapolis
22. Cincinnati at Baltimore
23. Houston at Pittsburgh
24. Detroit at Atlanta
25. Atlanta vs. Detroit
26. Miami vs. New York Jets
27. Tampa Bay at New Orleans
28. St. Louis at Philadelphia
29. Cleveland vs. Dallas
30. Kansas City at New England

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

Bengals QB Carson Palmer (broken nose) has been practicing all week with a plastic shield, possibly something that could affect his vision, but remains probable for this Sunday.

Not listed on the injury report, Browns QB Derek Anderson (concussion) could be in for a rough opener as he faces a stern test from a tenacious Cowboys defense this week.

Titans QB Vince Young (hamstring) fully participated in practice Friday, and looks to be a go against an always-tough Jaguars defense. Limited mobility could be an issue here.

Colts QB Peyton Manning (knee) had a full week of practice and will start on Sunday. The bigger issue here may be that C Jeff Saturday (knee) is out, potentially weakening a strong line.

Running Backs

Bengals RB Kenny Watson (hamstring) steadily improved during the week, practicing fully on Friday, and is listed as probable for Sunday. He could be a major contributor this season now that Rudi Johnson has moved on to Detroit.

Ravens RB Willis McGahee (knee) was limited in practice for the past three days, but remains probable heading into a meeting with the Bengals. Expect him to lose touches to rookie Ray Rice while he continues to mend.

Browns RB Jamal Lewis (hamstring) remains optimistic about playing Sunday, but has been limited in practice for three days in a row. The fact that he hasn't guaranteed he'll play is a bit concerning. Monitor this situation Sunday morning.

The Saints will be happy to have RB Deuce McAllister (knee) back into the fold Sunday, despite being listed as questionable. He fully participated in practice for three straight days, and looks to be in line for regular work this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Panthers WR D.J. Hackett (toe) has resumed full participation in practice and is listed as probable for Sunday against the Chargers. He could be targeted often in his Panthers debut.

A pair of teammates are listed as probable this week, Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hamstring) and WR Chad Ocho Cinco (shoulder and, yes, that's the former Johnson's legal name now), but both have fully participated in practice since Wednesday. This may be the most entertaining duo in the league to watch, and should cause fits for the Ravens secondary.

Jaguars WR Jerry Porter (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday after seeing his practice reps cut down to zero by Friday. Teammate WR Reggie Williams (hamstring) is listed as probable for their meeting against the Titans after putting in two full days of practice.

Jets WR Laveranues Coles (thigh) was limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable. This could affect the performance of QB Brett Favre in his Jets debut against division rival Miami.

Both Seattle WR Deion Branch (knee) and WR Bobby Engram (shoulder) have been ruled out for Sunday. Branch was limited in practice all week, while Engram is out at least four more weeks with a cracked shoulder.

Eagles WR Reggie Brown (hamstring) is listed as doubtful, which means rookie WR DeSean Jackson starts on Sunday against the Rams. Brown was limited in practice on Wednesday, and shut down both Thursday and Friday.

Buccaneers WR Antonio Bryant (knee), WR Michael Clayton (chest), and WR Joey Galloway (groin) were all limited in practice this week and are listed as questionable. QB Jeff Garcia could be affected by the health of his three top targets.

Raiders WR Javon Walker (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday night, as he was limited in practice on Wednesday and held out for the rest of the week. His ability to practice this weekend will determine his status. But expect him to play, even if it's as a decoy.

Other Positions

Chargers TE Antonio Gates (toe) is listed as probable this weekend, but should be fine after fully practicing all week. He is still the top TE in fantasy, and remains capable of putting up monster numbers.

Ravens TE Todd Heap (knee) progressed well this week, practicing fully on Friday, and is listed as probable for Sunday. He could provide a safety net for rookie QB Joe Flacco in his NFL debut.

Patriots TE Benjamin Watson (knee) was held out of practice all week and is listed as doubtful. I wouldn't look at him as an option until Week Two.

Bills Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters ends his holdout today but is unlikely to play Sunday. This is very positive news for Bills skill players going forward, but not helpful in Week 1.

By David Ferris

Before you launch head-first into the first week of the NFL season, let's tackle some AL stocks and keep you on course in the marathon of fantasy games.

Batters

BUY

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: He was raking before the foot injury and the rehab went quickly and smoothly, so by all means let's run him out there for the final month. Seattle fans are going to rue the Jones trade the way Mets fans view the Scott Kazmir debacle.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays: His power came back in a big way in the second half (13 homers), and the .265 average is artificially low (the walk-strikeout rate suggests a much better number). Pena didn't match his dynamic 2007 season, but in a lot of ways he validated it; I'll gladly bid the extra buck on this guy next spring.

SELL

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: He's headed toward wrist surgery and probably done for the season. In a keeper league, accept 50 to 60 cents on the dollar if you can win in 2008; worry about next year next year.

HOLD

Dustin Pedroia, OF, Red Sox: He'll probably be overpriced next year, but for the balance of 2008, enjoy the ride. The average is real, the power is probably a fluke, and the steals won't stay forever. But this is a $20 player into the new decade.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: He's been the AL's best table setters in the second half (.324 average, 35 walks, 49 runs, 1.002 OPS), often being driven in by the surging Miguel Cabrera. Detroit has a lot to fix on the mound in 2009, but this is still going to be a dynamic lineup. Granderson is starting to hang in better against lefties, his last hurdle before he hits superstardom.

Pitchers

BUY

Ervin Santana, SP, Angels: We always knew about the electric fastball and the nasty slider; it was just a matter of confidence here, and getting over the mental block of winning on the road. Santana hasn't dropped a game since late July, and he's piled up 56 strikeouts against seven walks over his last seven turns; the emergence is complete. You can make the argument that Santana has been the best pitcher in the OC this year, not the overrated guy closing all the wins out.

SELL

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians: He's never going to be a big punchout guy, but when he walks more than he strikes out, it's a red flag - he doesn't have command of his power sinker. Give Carmona a long look in March to see if the Indians are able to rebuild his mechanics, and flush out the memories of the nightmare 2008.

HOLD

Scott Baker, SP, Twins: His strikeout rate has dipped of late, but we can accept that given the mild uptick in his control, and more balls staying in the park. I like Minnesota's schedule down the stretch, especially now that the two-weeks-of-hell road trip is over. Baker should be priced for a nifty 2009 discount, given all the attention paid to teammates Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano.

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Sept. 8 to 14, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Shin-Shoo Choo, OF, Indians: After battling back from injury last season, he's really found his stride, batting .376 over the past month with five homers and 21 runs scored. He'll be facing the Royals and the Orioles this week, two pitching staffs not known for their dominance in '08. He's an under-the-radar guy who could have an effect come playoff time in your fantasy league.

Carl Pavano, SP, Yankees: This man should get tire marks tattooed all over his body, since he's been tossed under the bus by the New York fans and media for the better part of the past four years. Miraculously though, he's won two of his first three starts, and gets another two turns this week against the Angels and the Rays. He's pitching for a contract now, and has limited time to establish his value, so expect spirited performances against two of the AL's best squads.

Bench 'em

Victor Martinez, C/1B, Indians: Still trying to work his way back from elbow surgery, the Indians backstop has collected only three hits in his first 15 at bats since returning from the DL, and has gotten frequent days off. Down the stretch, you just can't rely on him, name value or not. With his team out of it, there is no need to rush him back into full-time duty.

James Shields, SP: With the Rays coming down the home stretch and preparing for the playoffs, there is a good chance they'll begin to rest their ace to keep his arm fresh for October. He'll get a lone start on the road against the Yankees this week, where his ERA is a lofty 5.84 this season. Monitor his workload going forward, especially if the Rays have things all sewn up by the end of this week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Chris Dickerson, OF, Reds: He's been great since his promotion on Aug. 12, batting .320 with six homers and 12 RBIs, along with five steals. Guys who put up numbers across the board in fantasy are like striking gold, and this shiny new name could still be had if you act fast.

Greg Maddux, SP, Dodgers: This cagey veteran gets two turns this week, against the Padres and the Rockies, both on the road. His ERA at Petco Park this season is 2.62, so you can bank on him giving you quality ratios this scoring period. These offenses have been wildly inconsistent this season, making the play here much more attractive.

Bench 'em

Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: With the Mets surging as of late, this Phillies slugger has done nothing but spin his tires trying to put it in gear, hitting .183 over the past month with only three long balls. That is just unacceptable from a power guy, especially one who plays half his game in the launching pad that is Citizens Bank Park. He faces the Marlins and the Brewers at home this week, two of the better pitching teams in the NL. Dump him now while you still have a season to play for.

Todd Wellemeyer, SP, Cardinals: A lone matchup this week against the Pirates looks favorable for him. But if you dig a bit deeper, you'll find an ugly 5.84 ERA as PNC Park this season. His K/9 rate of 6.2 isn't terrible, but he's likely to fall well short in that category with only one turn this week. Grab a two-start guy in his place if you can.

By David Ferris

Also-rans checked out awhile ago, but Fantasy Champions stay locked in for six months. You'll get better gas mileage on your plays this month, because half of the room is looking at football right now. Stay the course; let's get you where you want to be.

Batters

BUY

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: He's carrying a .321/.385/.670 line with eight homers over the last five weeks, hitting in front of Manny Ramirez. The debate on lineup protection might never be truly be settled, but Ethier's 25 runs over his last 26 games certainly is tied to the lineup position.

Pablo Sandoval, C, Giants: His bat (.353 average in August, .529 slugging) gets him regular time at first and third, and his catcher eligibility makes him a fantasy boon for fantasy players struggling at the spot.

SELL

Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: The swing has gotten a little leaky over the last month (.183 average, just three homers), and his defense costs him a few at-bats every week as Charlie Manuel is quick to grab a different glove in left field.

Josh Willingham, OF, Marlins: You have to wonder if he's over the wrist injury or because he looked lost in August (.210 average, .395 slugging, 22 strikeouts). He's in the "prove it" file until further notice.

HOLD

Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals: He's only been back for eight games but they've been packed with plenty of goodies (eight runs, six walks, two homers, three steals). He'll be a 20-20 player next year, easily, and the Washington address keeps the buzz down.

Pitchers

BUY

Joe Nelson, RP, Marlins: He's been the strongest option in the Florida bullpen all summer (1.69 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 42.2 IP), and that gets him into the closing committee while Kevin Gregg rehabs his leg injury. Matt Lindstrom has the future tag and greater expectation from HQ, but Fredi Gonzalez has to try to win every night, and Nelson currently is the best option when there's a late lead in the balance.

SELL

Dave Bush, SP, Brewers: For years he's been the poster child for the guy who underproduces his peripherals, but recently it's been the opposite (five quality turns in August, despite a flattening strikeout rate and a mild walk increase). Bush also serves up plenty of homers (two Wednesday to the Mets, 78 over three seasons); he's someone who can pitch well for a couple of weeks, and then undo all the progress in one afternoon. Remain skeptical.

HOLD

Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals: He's had three strong turns off the finger injury, so all systems go for the final four weeks. It would be nice if the ERA eventually creeps over three; it will help our price next week.

Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros: His strikeout rate is holding on and he's getting plenty of ground balls, which fueled a surprising revival in August (five wins, 1.59 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). Stay on board for the final scene.

By Mark P. Stopa

Time for the last preseason Stock Watch. Next week, we begin making the in-season adjustments so necessary to fantasy football success.

This week, we again note each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, based on the results of hundreds of fantasy drafts conducted at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" means I like the player more than the market."Downgrades" are players overvalued. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals (ADP: 39): He's not as talented as teammate Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 20). But starting QB Kurt Warner has always seemed to favor Boldin. As long as Warner is the QB, I'm not sure that Boldin's stats will be much different than Fitzgerald's.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos (ADP: 35): What should we like more: he fact that Marshall is really good, that his QB, Jay Cutler, has a rocket arm and is expected to break out this year, or that Marshall's suspension just got reduced from three games to one? Pick one of those reasons and grab Marshall ahead of T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP: 23) and Steve Smith (ADP: 29), among others.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (ADP: 180): Brett Favre has always liked throwing to tight ends in the red zone. I'm sure you remember what Donald Lee did last year, or Bubba Franks before that, but don't forget Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura. The point is that there are not 18 better fantasy TEs than Keller, whom the Jets liked enough to take in the first round even before Favre came into the fold.

Kenny Watson, RB, Bengals (ADP: 143) Rudi Johnson's departure means that Chris Perry is all that stands between Watson and a starting gig. Perry has been injury-prone throughout his brief NFL career, making Watson a very attractive late-round selection. Of course, if you can get Perry and Watson, even better.

Martin Gramatica, K, Saints (ADP: ND): Can Gramatica ever again be a Pro Bowl-caliber kicker? Kicking for the high-scoring Saints, he won't need to be that in order to be a top 10 fantasy guy. He only needs to keep his job all season. Grab him on your waiver wire if you're in need.

No Change

Sleepers: With the abundance of information in the media about fantasy football, it's sometimes easy to read so many good things about certain players that you start to like them too much. Don't fall into this trap. A sleeper is only a "sleeper" if you get him for the right price. Ray Rice is a nice sleeper given the chance that Willis McGahee does not round into form after his injury, but if you have to draft Rice in the sixth round, then it defeats the purpose.

Downgrades

Bills skill players: Jason Peters is still holding out, with no end in sight. This means fewer running lanes for Marshawn Lynch, less time for Trent Edwards to throw and less time for Lee Evans to run under deep balls. At this point, even if Peters were to report today, it will take him awhile to get up to speed and to learn the new system. Unless and until Peters rounds into form, everyone on the Bills offense merits a downgrade.

Ravens skill players: The Ravens really seem to like Joe Flacco. But as a rookie QB, chances are that Flacco will struggle mightily, especially early in the season. Willis McGahee is still worth starting, but otherwise it's a wasteland in Baltimore.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: (ADP: 29): Some people think this is the year he breaks out. I think it's the year he cements his status as a draft bust. For me, he's like former Giants RB Dave Meggett, a third-down, scat-back type player. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that, and Meggett was a fine player; but that's not what the Saints thought they were getting with the second overall draft selection just a few years ago.

By Chad Lawton

Next Update: 9/6

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

* = check status

Quarterback
1. *Tom Brady, NE vs. KC
2. Tony Romo, DAL at CLE
NOTE: Entire offense is licking its chops.
3. *Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. STL
4. Drew Brees, NO vs. TB
5. *Peyton Manning, IND vs. CHI
6. *Derek Anderson, CLE vs. DAL
7. Kurt Warner, ARI at SF
8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. HOU
9. Eli Manning, NYG vs. WAS
10. *Carson Palmer, CIN at BAL
NOTE: Messy summer doesn't inspire confidence.
11. Jon Kitna, DET at ATL
NOTE: How bad can he be with those wideouts?
12. Matt Schaub, HOU at PIT
13. Brett Favre, NYJ at MIA
14. Philip Rivers, SD vs. CAR
15. Jay Cutler, DEN at OAK
16. *J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. ARI
NOTE: Mike Martz's most ambitious challenge yet.
17. David Garrard, JAC at TEN
18. *Marc Bulger, STL at PHI
19. *Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at BUF
20. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN
21. *Jake Delhomme, CAR at SD
22. *Jeff Garcia, TB at NO
23. *Vince Young, TEN vs. JAC
24. Chad Pennington, MIA vs. NYJ
25. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. DEN
26. Jason Campbell, WAS at NYG
NOTE: A mess the last two weeks.
27. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. SEA
28. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. DET
29. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN at GB
30. Kyle Orton, CHI at IND
31. *Joe Flacco, BAL vs. CIN
32. Brodie Croyle, KC at NE

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. CAR
2. *Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. STL
3. Marion Barber, DAL at CLE
4. Joseph Addai, IND vs. CHI
5. Adrian Peterson, MIN at GB
6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. SEA
NOTE: They'll pound the rock in all situations.
7. Frank Gore, SF vs. ARI
8. Michael Turner, ATL vs. DET
9. *Steven Jackson, STL at PHI
10. Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. WAS
11. Clinton Portis, WAS at NYG
12. Willie Parker, PIT vs. HOU
13. Laurence Maroney, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Is he truly a lead back?
14. Thomas Jones, NYJ at MIA
NOTE: Line improved, but a sluggish summer.
15. *Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at TEN
16. Earnest Graham, TB at NO
17. *Selvin Young, DEN at OAK
18. Larry Johnson, KC at NE
NOTE: Target on his back this week.
19. Ricky Williams, MIA vs. NYJ
20. *Ryan Grant, GB vs. MIN
NOTE: Yes, Minnesota's run-stopping is that good.
21. Matt Forte, CHI at IND
22. *Reggie Bush, NO vs. TB
23. Edgerrin James, ARI at SF
24. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at SD
NOTE: Too good not to take over sooner or later.
25. *Kevin Smith, DET at ATL
26. *Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. DAL
27. Fred Taylor, JAC at TEN
28. Darren McFadden, OAK vs. DEN
29. Chris Perry, CIN at BAL
30. Justin Fargas, OAK vs. DEN
31. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at SD
32. LenDale White, TEN vs. JAC
NOTE: A plodder all the way.
33. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. CIN
34. *Ray Rice, BAL vs. CIN
35. Maurice Morris, SEA at BUF
NOTE: Bump 5-10 slots if he starts.
36. Julius Jones, SEA at BUF
37. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. JAC
NOTE: Worth the price of admission.
38. *Steve Slaton HOT at PIT
39. *Ronnie Brown, MIA vs. NYJ
40. Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. DET
41. *Ahman Green, HOU at PIT
42. Felix Jones, DAL at CLE
NOTE: He should get a sizeable role right away.
43. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. WAS
44. Andre Hall, DEN at OAK
45. Chester Taylor, MIN at GB
46. *Jason Wright, CLE vs. DAL
NOTE: Keep an eye on Lewis's status.
47. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. HOU
48. *Chris Taylor, HOU at PIT
49. *Rudi Johnson, DET at ATL
50. Leon Washington, NYJ at MIA
NOTE: Will he get role he deserves?
51. Derrick Ward, NYG vs. WAS
52. Kenny Watson, CIN at BAL
53. Tim Hightower, ARI at SF
54. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. ARI
55. Lorenzo Booker, PHI vs. STL
56. Ladell Betts, WAS at NYG
57. LaMont Jordan, NE vs. KC
58. Sammy Morris, NE vs. KC
59. *Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. DAL
60. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. TB
61. Fred Jackson, BUF vs. SEA
62. Warrick Dunn, TB at NO
63. *Deuce McAllister, NO vs. TB
64. *Brandon Jackson, GB vs. MIN
65. Michael Pittman, DEN at OAK
66. *Kevin Jones, CHI at IND
67. Jacob Hester, SD vs. CAR
68. Darren Sproles, SD vs. CAR
69. Kolby Smith, KC at NE
70. Michael Bush, OAK vs. DEN
71. Jamaal Charles, KC at NE

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL at CLE
NOTE: I'll be shocked if he doesn't score.
2. Randy Moss, NE vs. KC
3. *Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. DAL
4. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. CHI
5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at SF
6. Marques Colston, NO vs. TB
7. Andre Johnson, HOU at PIT
8. *Plaxico Burress, NYG vs. WAS
9. Wes Welker, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Not on initial injury report.
10. *Torry Holt, STL at PHI
11. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at BAL
12. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. HOU
13. Calvin Johnson, DET at ATL
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
14. Roy Williams, DET at ATL
15. Anquan Boldin, ARI at SF
16. Greg Jennings, GB vs. MIN
17. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at MIA
18. Roddy White, ATL vs. DET
NOTE: Offense won't attack with rookie QB.
19. *Chad Johnson, CIN at BAL
20. Donald Driver, GB vs. MIN
21. *Joey Galloway, TB at NO
NOTE: Nothing this summer but he does own the matchup.
22. Hines Ward, PIT vs. HOU
23. Chris Chambers, SD vs. CAR
24. Dwayne Bowe, KC at NE
25. *Nate Burleson, SEA at BUF
26. *Marvin Harrison, IND vs. CHI
27. Lee Evans, BUF vs. SEA
28. Laveranues Coles, NYJ at MIA
29. Santana Moss, WAS at NYG
30. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. CAR
31. Sidney Rice, MIN at GB
NOTE: A shame he's not in a different offense.
32. Patrick Crayton, DAL at CLE
33. Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. CHI
NOTE: A month for rust, and then watch out.
34. Justin Gage, TEN vs. JAC
35. Bernard Berrian, MIN at GB
36. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. DEN
37. Kevin Walter, HOU at PIT
NOTE: Very playable as your No. 3 most weeks.
38. *Reggie Williams, JAC at TEN
39. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. STL
40. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. STL
41. Ted Ginn, MIA vs. NYJ
NOTE: Has a shot with QB upgrade.
42. Jabar Gaffney, NE vs. KC
43. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. ARI
44. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at SD
45. *Bryant Johnson, SF vs. ARI
46. Antonio Bryant, TB at NO
47. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Might have one sneaky year left.
48. *Javon Walker, OAK vs. DEN
49. Josh Morgan, SF vs. ARI
50. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. CIN
51. Ike Hilliard, TB at NO
52. Donte Stallworth, CLE vs. DAL
NOTE: Been overrated for years.
53. Devin Hester, CHI at IND
NOTE: I admit, I'm curious too.
54. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. STL
55. Eddie Royal, DEN at OAK
56. *James Jones, GB vs. MIN
57. *Drew Bennett, STL at PHI
58. Brandon Stokley, DEN at OAK
59. Robert Meachem, NO vs. TB
NOTE: Let him prove it once, first.
60. *Darrell Jackson, DEN at OAK
61. David Patten, NO vs. TB
62. *D.J. Hackett, CAR at SD
63. *Jerry Porter, JAC at TEN
64. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. WAS
65. Courtney Taylor, SEA at BUF
66. Marty Booker, CHI at IND
67. *Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. DET
68. James Hardy, BUF vs. SEA
69. Jordan Kent, SEA at BUF

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL at CLE
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. DAL
3. *Antonio Gates, SD vs. CAR
NOTE: The key to the entire offense.
4. Dallas Clark, IND vs. CHI
NOTE: He's used as an outside threat.
5. *Jeremy Shockey, NO vs. TB
6. Chris Cooley, WAS at NYG
7. Tony Gonzalez, KC at NE
8. Owen Daniels, HOU at PIT
9. *Todd Heap, BAL vs. CIN
10. Heath Miller, PIT vs. HOU
NOTE: Looks like a matchup he can score with.
11. Vernon Davis, SF vs. ARI
12. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. JAC
13. Tony Scheffler, DEN at OAK
NOTE: Took a step back late in camp.
14. Ben Utecht, CIN at BAL
15. Zach Miller, OAK vs. DEN
NOTE: Best value TE play on board.
16. Donald Lee, GB vs. MIN
17. *L.J. Smith, PHI vs. STL
18. *John Carlson, SEA at BUF
19. *Ben Watson, NE vs. KC
20. *Greg Olsen, CHI at IND
21. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at TEN
22. Randy McMichael, STL at PHI
23. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. WAS
24. Dustin Keller, NYJ at MIA
25. Alex Smith, TB at NO
26. Leonard Pope, ARI at SF
27. Robert Royal, BUF vs. SEA

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. CAR
2. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Go where the points are.
3. Nick Folk, DAL at CLE
4. Josh Scobee, JAC at TEN
5. Adam Vinatieri, IND vs. CHI
6. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. HOU
7. David Akers, PHI vs. STL
8. Lawrence Tynes, NYG vs. WAS
9. Shayne Graham, CIN at BAL
10. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. TB
11. Mason Crosby, GB vs. MIN
12. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. DAL
13. Jason Hanson, DET at ATL
14. Neil Rackers, ARI at SF
15. Ryan Longwell, MIN at GB
16. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. JAC
17. Matt Stover, BAL vs. CIN
18. Kris Brown, HOU at PIT
19. Joe Nedney, SF vs. ARI
20. Jason Elam, ATL vs. DET
21. Robbie Gould, CHI at IND
NOTE: How can you trust his offense right now?
22. Josh Brown, STL at PHI
23. John Kasay, CAR at SD

Defense
1. New England vs. Kansas City
NOTE: Say cheese, Brodie.
2. San Diego vs. Carolina
3. New York Giants vs. Washington
4. Green Bay vs. Minnesota
5. Minnesota at Green Bay
6. Philadelphia vs. St. Louis
NOTE: Blitz packages will tee off on Bulger.
7. Buffalo vs. Seattle
8. Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
9. Dallas at Cleveland
10. Arizona at San Francisco
NOTE: Martz will expose his QB most weeks.
11. Jacksonville at Tennessee
12. Pittsburgh vs. Houston
13. Indianapolis vs. Chicago
NOTE: Stadium opener, and Orton matchup helps.
14. Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
15. Seattle at Buffalo
16. New York Jets at Miami
17. Denver at Oakland
18. Carolina at San Diego
19. New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
20. San Francisco vs. Arizona
21. Oakland vs. Denver
22. Chicago at Indianapolis
23. Cincinnati at Baltimore
24. Houston at Pittsburgh
25. Detroit at Atlanta
26. Atlanta vs. Detroit
27. Washington at New York Giants
28. Miami vs. New York Jets
29. Tampa Bay at New Orleans
30. St. Louis at Philadelphia
31. Cleveland vs. Dallas
32. Kansas City at New England

By Michael Salfino

Luck is a different kind of four-letter word in baseball.

I'm not addressing it here in any way to diminish the almost god-like ability of all major league players. They're in the 99.9th percentile of baseball skill. I understand that if I saw the players who I consider to be baseball's worst at my local sandlot, their talent would make my jaw drop, that's how unreal it would seem to all of us mere baseball mortals.

But, once you get to the show, it's all relative. Sometimes we think that players have extreme years relative to career numbers or scouting projections because of significant changes in their ability or dedication. But I'm convinced it's mostly random.

One of my favorite books this year is "A Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives," by physicist Leonard Mlodinow - a big baseball fan. I noted in June how Mlodinow's worldview developed as a result of Roger Maris' outlying 1961 season, when he hit 61 homers to break Babe Ruth's single-season record. Mlodinow's point is that any random guy with plus-big league power has about a 3-percent chance of hitting 60-plus homers in a Strat-O-Matic sense. So over the course of many years of baseball history, someone was certain to eventually do this randomly. That person just happened to be 1961 Roger Maris.

Can anyone quarrel with the notion that at least a handful of the nearly 700 major league players (plus the many who shuffled on and off rosters) are certain to have been extremely lucky or unlucky in '08? In other words, their performance increases or declines can be attributed almost entirely to random chance.

There weren't any 1961 Marises this year. That's historic when it happens - just not for the reasons most of us think. But let's try to find those pitchers who were most unlucky, according to stats that I believe best isolate luck: average against on balls in play (BIP), percentage of baserunners stranded and rate of home runs on all fly balls allowed.

Next week, lucky pitchers. Then we close out the season with unlucky and lucky hitters, using some different metrics. Let's do away with the recommendations this week, though all of these guys would theoretically (Carlos Silva hedge) be "Buys" for 2009, assuming they have jobs - the major challenge for unlucky guys seeking a comeback. Baseball managers and executives generally refuse to accept the influence of chance because they'd rather believe in the supremacy of talent and their ability to control the fate of their teams (and their careers) by first identifying and then nurturing it.

Also, we're focusing on qualifying starters because sample sizes with relievers are too small. Thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for the data.

Carlos Silva, Mariners: No amount of better luck would make him worth his $48-million contract. But, in fairness, he's been victimized by a very high BIP (average on balls in play) rate (.339, average is about .300). And 39 percent of his baserunners have scored (average is 30 percent). Even with average luck, though, his ERA would still be near 5.00.

Nate Robertson, Tigers: Here's a guy I'd try to get cheap next year. The league's hitting .346 on BIP, two years ago versus him, .277. Of course, that's decreased his Left on Base (LOB) percentage - 34 percent have scored this year; 29 percent in '07.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: He wasn't lucky on BIP last year (.304), but his .319 there hurts more in '08 because 13 percent of his fly balls allowed are homers, versus 9.7 percent in '07. Why do we think this is the pitcher's fault? Don't the hitters determine outcomes, too?

Ian Snell, Pirates: BIP averages since 2006: .314, .308 and .358 this year. I understand the Pirates' defense is bad, but there's a lot of bad luck here, too.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: Our friends at HardballTimes.com say his ERA this year with average luck/defense would be almost a full run lower than actual. Use that as your '09 baseline.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds: His left on base (LOB) percentage is OK. But the BIP (.318) and especially the rate of homers on fly balls (15.5 percent, average this year is 11.5) are extreme. You can blame him and/or the park, but Arroyo's rate was about 11 percent the last two years combined.

Aaron Harang, Reds: Similar to Arroyo: 15.8 percent of fly balls are homers this year. Prior three years: 9.4, 11.7, 10.6 percent.

Roy Oswalt, Astros: Getting killed by a homer rate (15 percent) nearly double what it was in preceding years. If he's easier to hit, why are the strikeouts up (7.3/9 innings)?

Justin Verlander, Tigers: We think intestinal fortitude allows pitchers to excel with runners on base. But I believe Verlander's all-time-low line drive rate proves an unfair number of bleeders and bloops are driving home 35 percent of baserunners (25 percent last year).

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 9/2
Next Update: 9/9

First Base/DH
1. Mark Teixeira, Angels
NOTE: Season will be defined by October.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
3. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Lance Berkman, Astros
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. David Ortiz, Red Sox
8. Ryan Howard, Phillies
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
NOTE: Slugging star in second half.
10. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Don't pay for career year in March.
11. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
12. Derrek Lee, Cubs
13. Carlos Delgado, Mets
14. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
15. Jason Giambi, Yankees
16. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
18. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Casey Kotchman, Braves
21. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
22. Jim Thome, White Sox
23. Kevin Millar, Orioles
24. *Travis Hafner, Indians
25. Brian LaHair, Mariners
26. Paul Konerko, White Sox
27. Martin Prado, Braves

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NOTE: Can't deny his second half.
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
7. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
8. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Jose Lopez, Mariners
11. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
12. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
NOTE: Underrated table setter in Tampa.
13. Omar Infante, Braves
14. Willie Harris, Nationals
NOTE: Swiss Army Knife has surprising utility.
15. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
16. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
17. *Mark Ellis, Athletics
18. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
19. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
20. Alexi Casilla, Twins
21. Kelly Johnson, Braves
22. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
23. Nick Punto, Twins
24. Luis Rodriguez, Padres
25. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
NOTE: Steps in for injured Kent.
26. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
27. Luis Castillo, Mets
28. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
29. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
30. Ramon Vazquez, Rangers
31. Eugenio Velez, Giants
32. Mark Loretta, Astros
33. Ray Durham, Brewers
34. Augie Ojeda, Diamondbacks
35. Brendan Harris, Twins
36. *Jeff Kent, Dodgers
NOTE: Knee surgery just about sinks season.

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
7. *Mike Aviles, Royals
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. Miguel Tejada, Astros
NOTE: Power has disappeared.
13. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
NOTE: Pretty average, but empty elsewhere.
14. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
15. Yunel Escobar, Braves
16. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
17. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
18. Erick Aybar, Angels
19. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
20. Clint Barmes, Rockies
21. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
22. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
23. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
NOTE: If only his glove had roto value.
24. Jason Bartlett, Rays
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
27. Juan Uribe, White Sox
28. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
29. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
30. David Eckstein, Diamondbacks

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
7. Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Hello, Crawford Boxes.
8. *Melvin Mora, Orioles
NOTE: Mad run but he's nicked up.
9. Ian Stewart, Rockies
10. *Chipper Jones, Braves
11. Chone Figgins, Angels
12. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Better swings in last week.
15. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
18. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
19. Ryan Garko, Indians
20. *Evan Longoria, Rays
21. Chris Davis, Rangers
22. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
23. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
24. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
25. Casey Blake, Dodgers
26. Willy Aybar, Rays
27. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
28. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
29. *Joe Crede, White Sox
30. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
31. Geoff Blum, Astros
32. *Alex Gordon, Royals
33. Andy Marte, Indians
34. Rich Aurilia, Giants
35. Jack Hannahan, Athletics

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Matt Holliday, Rockies
NOTE: Headed for 30-30, then trade rumors.
3. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
4. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
5. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
6. Jason Bay, Red Sox
NOTE: All in all, Boston will take the exchange.
7. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
8. Nick Markakis, Orioles
9. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
10. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
NOTE: A dynamic guy in No. 1 slot.
12. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
13. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
14. Corey Hart, Brewers
15. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
16. Carlos Beltran, Mets
17. Xavier Nady, Yankees
18. B.J. Upton, Rays
19. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
20. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
21. Pat Burrell, Phillies
22. Shane Victorino, Phillies
23. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
24. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
NOTE: Healthy and production shows.
25. Johnny Damon, Yankees
26. Hunter Pence, Astros
27. Mike Cameron, Brewers
NOTE: Underrated part of their playoff push.
28. Nate McLouth, Pirates
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
30. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
31. Torii Hunter, Angels
32. *Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
33. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
34. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
35. Aaron Rowand, Giants
36. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
37. Randy Winn, Giants
38. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
39. Denard Span, Twins
40. Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Running to save his job.
41. Jay Bruce, Reds
42. Jayson Werth, Phillies
NOTE: Owns lefties, and has gig now.
43. Jason Kubel, Twins
44. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
45. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
46. Fred Lewis, Giants
47. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
48. *Jose Guillen, Royals
49. Ben Francisco, Indians
50. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
51. *Adam Jones, Orioles
NOTE: Back from foot injury.
52. Luke Scott, Orioles
53. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
54. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Keeps spot even with Andruw's return.
55. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
56. Delmon Young, Twins
57. Chase Headley, Padres
58. Jack Cust, Athletics
59. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
60. *Michael Bourn, Astros
61. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
62. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
63. Nick Swisher, White Sox
64. Matt Joyce, Tigers
65. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
66. Cody Ross, Marlins
67. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
68. *Garret Anderson, Angels
69. Eric Hinske, Rays
70. David DeJesus, Royals
71. Josh Anderson, Braves
NOTE: Sneaky September add in deep mixers.
72. *Jody Gerut, Padres
73. Juan Rivera, Angels
74. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
75. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
76. Ken Griffey, White Sox
77. Josh Willingham, Marlins
78. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
79. Ryan Church, Mets
80. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
NOTE: He's fallen apart in second half.
81. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
82. Reed Johnson, Cubs
83. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
84. Ross Gload, Royals
85. *Marcus Thames, Tigers
86. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
87. Brian Giles, Padres
88. Bill Hall, Brewers
89. Gregor Blanco, Braves
90. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
91. Darin Erstad, Astros
92. *David Murphy, Rangers
93. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
94. Daniel Murphy, Mets
95. Gary Matthews, Angels
96. Fernando Tatis, Mets
97. Rajai Davis, Athletics
98. Mark Teahen, Royals
99. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
NOTE: Hurt again, act surprised.

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Geovany Soto, Cubs
NOTE: The ROY in a walk.
3. Russell Martin, Dodgers
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
6. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
9. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
NOTE: Keep using him, even with V-Mart back.
10. *Victor Martinez, Indians
11. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
14. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
15. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
16. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
NOTE: Getting run at the corner spots.
17. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
18. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
19. Jeff Clement, Mariners
20. Gerald Laird, Rangers
21. Mike Napoli, Angels
22. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
23. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
24. Jesus Flores, Nationals
25. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
26. John Baker, Marlins
27. Brian Schneider, Mets
28. Miguel Olivo, Royals
29. *Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
30. John Buck, Royals
31. Jeff Mathis, Angels