Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

We spend most of our time in this crazy pursuit studying a player's talent and stat profile, but sometimes it's a change in opportunity that makes all the difference on the stock chart. Keep that in mind as you monitor the NL movers and shakers along with us.

Batters

BUY

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies: He's collected a quiet 18 homers and 13 steals as part of the right-field platoon, and now the job is completely his with the stumbling Geoff Jenkins off to the DL. Werth's best skill is hammering left-handers and he's an ordinary stick against the northpaws, but he's also got a keen eye. The Philadelphia lineup has started to show its teeth a bit. Get in for the final four weeks.

Jody Gerut, OF, Padres: He's got a .326 average and eight homers since the break, and Bud Black has turned to Gerut as an every-day outfielder, using him near the top of the lineup. Gerut is capable of hitting lefties just fine, thank you (.313), and Scott Hairston's sore thumb clears the runway nicely; looks like we've got another post-hype hitter on the docket.

SELL

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: His modest power wasn't that big a deal in the first half because Fukudome was on base constantly and caught up in the undertow of the NL's best offense. Things have bottomed out in the second half (.229/.314/.347), to the point that Lou Piniella essentially considers Fukudome a part-time player right now. It's certainly cut-bait time in mixed leagues, where you need full participation from your primary guys.

HOLD

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: It's easy to dismiss the Washington lineup with a token glance, but don't look past Milledge, who's elevated his game over the last month (.321, six homers, five steals, 1.017 OPS). His string of $20 seasons could begin in 2009, and the growth he's shown this summer is still a bit under the radar, given the lack of buzz the Nationals are creating. Last winter's Milledge swap is going to haunt the Mets for a while, but in keeper leagues, you hold onto this blue-chipper with both hands; he's an ideal cornerstone to take you into the new decade -- Mike Cameron with a higher upside.

Pitchers

BUY

Luis Ayala, RP, Mets: You won't get any comfort from his stat profile, but Jerry Manuel trusts his new right-hander and opportunity is a giant part of the saves equation, for our purposes anyway. Sometimes it's more important to ask "why not?" as opposed to "why?" when a journeyman gets plugged into this important stat-grabbing spot, and that's the tack we'll take with Ayala. Hopefully the Mets can get him a lot of two- to three-run leads to work with, because he'll need the wiggle room. Upside if everything clicks: a 3.50 ERA and eight to 10 saves out the door, assuming Billy Wagner isn't a factor in September.

Matt Capps, RP, Pirates: He's back from the shoulder problem and hitting the mid-90s on the gun again, which means we can say goodbye to John Grabow (set-up) and Craig Hansen (minors) as fantasy prospects.

SELL

Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals: He's back on the DL as the shoulder is barking again, and the club probably won't take any unnecessary chances with its investment here. It's very likely Carpenter is done for the season. Fortunately for the Redbirds, a handful of other things have fallen right this month on the mound: Braden Looper is on a surprising run, Adam Wainwright has rejoined the rotation and Chris Perez is evolving into a dominant closer, steadying a position that was an absolute mess for six weeks.

HOLD

Trevor Hoffman, RP, Padres: His sloppy opening to the year had the Heath Bell vultures excited, but Hoffman has circled the wagons nicely since then (3.30 ERA, 35 strikeouts, three walks), getting the feel of his change-up back. The Padres have been a train wreck in the second half, but even losing teams can support a viable fantasy closer -- Hoffman has a win and 10 saves since the break.

 Tags  baseball Chris Carpenter David Ferris Jayson Werth Jody Gerut Kosuke Fukudome Lastings Milledge Luis Ayala Matt Capps NL Stock Watch Trevor Hoffman

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