Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Mark P. Stopa

With the first preseason game now behind us, it's time to get pumped about the upcoming NFL season. Here, I don't state the obvious (e.g. Panthers WR Steve Smith is a downgrade because of his two-game suspension or Brett Favre is an upgrade if he wins the starting job in Green Bay), but instead provide insights a bit more "under the radar."

To help put things in context, I provide each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, which is based on the results of hundreds of recent fantasy drafts, courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" during the preseason means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars (ADP: 101): Jacksonville is a run-first team, and their lack of a go-to WR is far from ideal for a QB. But Garrard's 7.7 YPA last year was truly elite, and he did that in the same run-first offense they'll be using this year. Combine that with his incredible game-management skills (only 3 INTs last year), rushing ability, and the fact that this is his first training camp as the starter, and Garrard is clearly undervalued. His 16-game pace last year was 27 combined passing/rushing TDs. He should not be the 14th QB taken, nor should he be going two rounds after Eli Manning (ADP: 81) or Marc Bulger (ADP: 84).

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (ADP: 191): This just in: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are really good. This also just in: Matt Leinart, the Cardinals' rushing game, and the Cardinals' defense are not. Add that up and it's clear that Warner should not be the 24th QB off the board. Yes, he's not currently starting for the Cardinals. But go check out Warner's last eight games last year, where he threw for 21 TDs. For those of you who aren't math gurus, that projects to 42 TDs over a full season. How long do you think it will take the Cardinals to realize Warner is better than Leinart? I say three games, tops. Draft a reliable QB, then target Warner as a high-upside backup -- so you have little to lose and lots to gain.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (ADP: 180): Deuce McAllister is coming off of a torn ACL and Reggie Bush can't run between the tackles. Who does that leave in New Orleans for tough yards and TDs? Thomas. In his one start last year, Thomas racked up more than 100 yards rushing/receiving along with a score. When you are making those late-round speculative picks, I'd much rather choose Thomas than Maurice Morris (ADP: 146), among others. I'd even take Thomas ahead of McAllister (ADP: 103).

No Change

All Kickers: Raise your hand if you knew, at this time last year, that Nick Folk and Mason Crosby would be two of the top kickers in fantasy in 2007. Nobody -- that's what I thought. The fact that these guys came out of nowhere last year is yet more proof that waiting until the last round to take your fantasy kicker is not only the best strategy, it's the only strategy.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (ADP: 18): I'm not sure I'd spend a second-round pick on Manning, but my point in writing is to caution you not to overreact about his recent surgery or anything that he does, or does not do, in preseason. Since the Colts' offense is a rhythm offense, it might take him a game or two to get up to speed. Add in the fact that the Colts have an early bye and Manning might start slowly this year. But he should be fine over the course of the season. Either he or Romo (ADP: 20) should be the second QB off of the board.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers (ADP: 41): Obviously his value is greater with Favre at QB. But if you watched the Packers-Cowboys game last year, you may remember that Aaron Rodgers hooked up with Jennings a few times, including for a TD. Plus, Jennings is entering his third season, often the magical year for receivers. The uncertainty at QB in Green Bay has me concerned a bit, but I'd be just fine with Jennings as a second WR, which is right where he's going.

Downgrades

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts (ADP: 54): There is no way that Harrison should be the 18th WR taken in any draft. That means that somebody is counting on him to be their 2WR, a recipe for disaster. Not only is Harrison 35 and coming off an injury-plagued season, he is STILL not full speed because of that injury. Add in the fact that Tony Dungy is quick to rest his nicked-up stars, and I'd be shocked to see Harrison provide 2WR value this year. Among receivers I prefer over Harrison is his own teammate, Anthony Gonzalez (ADP: 88).

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (ADP: 10): Injury-prone? Check. Subpar offensive line? Check. Bad QB play? Check. Bad offense, limiting his goal-line touches? Check. Recently got a fat contract? Check. Playing on a rebuilding team? Check. Let's cut to the chase here -- there is no way that I would want LJ as my first-round pick. I much prefer Marshawn Lynch (ADP: 13) or Ryan Grant (ADP: 14), among others.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals (ADP: 40): Right now Edge is being taken as the 21st RB. I cannot possibly overstate how wrong I think it is for anyone to be relying on James as a 2RB. He is on the wrong side of 30, lacks burst, plays on a pass-first team and does not get goal-line carries. If you draft him as a starting running back, and wind up playing in your league's Toilet Bowl, consider yourself warned.

Michael Salfino contributed to this report.

 Tags  David Garrard Edgerrin James football Greg Jennings kickers Kurt Warner Larry Johnson Mark Stopa Marvin Harrison NFL Stock Watch Peyton Manning Pierre Thomas

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