Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Mark P. Stopa

Don't you hate how NFL coaches won't be honest with injury information? I mean, come on! We want to know if Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are really hurt or if they will be fine for Week 1.

Unfortunately, especially in the preseason (when NFL rules do not require teams to provide injury reports), such information is never forthcoming. Tony Dungy and Bill Belichick don't care if you are trying to decide on your starting QB for your fantasy team. Fortunately, though, I do care, and I'm more than happy to be forthright with my analysis. I'll avoid the "no duh" upgrades (e.g. Kurt Warner) and instead provide insights more under the radar.

To help place recommendations in a context most useful to fantasy leaguers, noting each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, based on results from hundreds of live drafts and courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. An "upgrade" during the preseason means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers (ADP: 48): Holmes is getting drafted as the 18th-best fantasy receiver, but I see him finishing in the top 10, easy. He led the NFL last year in yards per target, and his 2007 season statistics (942 yards, 8 TDs) undervalue him in light of the three games he missed. Entering his third year, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him and Hines Ward slowing down, I would draft Ward before Torry Holt (ADP: 33), Greg Jennings (ADP: 43) and Brandon Marshall (ADP: 43), among others.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos (ADP: 85): Of the QBs being drafted outside the top 10, Cutler and David Garrard (ADP: 107) are by far the most likely to finish as top 10 scorers. Take a chance on Cutler's upside instead of reaching for Donovan McNabb (ADP: 65).

Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars (ADP: 104): Unless you owned Williams last year, you probably didn't know that he scored 10 TDs. Williams is big, fast and has an underrated David Garrard throwing to him. So why is he getting drafted as the 39th WR? Probably because he had knee surgery this preseason. But it was a minor procedure and he's back. Draft accordingly.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears (ADP: 147): Check your league's rules to see if Hester's return TDs count if you start him at WR. If so, there are not 47 better fantasy wideouts than Hester.

Bills D/ST (ADP:203): This young, improving unit added Marcus Stroud on the D-line and can't possibly be as unlucky with injuries as last year. Factor in that Roscoe Parrish, Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin are going to get more special teams TDs than nearly every other squad, and this shapes up as a top-10 fantasy unit. Grabbing the Bills this late is yet another reason to wait until the end of your draft to fill this spot.

No Change

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (ADP: 6): I'm worried about Manning, see below, but not Brady. What's the difference? Well, Brady has been practicing. And he didn't undergo surgery. Keep drafting him as you normally would.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals (ADP: 37): Who does Boldin think he is, Chad Johnson? Just shut up and play ball. And he will. Well, maybe not the shut up part, but the play ball part for sure. And especially if Warner starts, he'll do that well enough to be the 14th-best WR.

Bills skill players: Discussing offensive tackles is boring. That's why nobody in the media is talking about how Bills Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters is holding out for a new contract and has yet to report to camp. Heck, unless you are a Buffalo fan, you probably haven't even heard of Peters. So let me put this in terms any football fan can understand - Peters is rated 97 (out of 100) in Madden '09 (the same rating as Brian Westbrook, Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald). While I suspect that Peters reports to camp soon (hence the "no change"), his holdout is at least worth mentioning, because Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans and the whole Buffalo offense would not be as valuable without Peters in the lineup.

Downgrades

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (ADP: 19): Early in the preseason, I called Manning a "no change." I was not worried about his knee injury. Now? Well, "worried" might be too strong, but I am concerned. Manning finally made it to practice yesterday. He refused to deny rumors he had a second knee surgery. The Colts have been tight-lipped about his status, and remember - they repeatedly misled the public about the extent of Marvin Harrison's injury last season. I look at the Colts' schedule and see a Week 4 bye. At this point, I would not be shocked if Manning is out until then. Even if Manning does start Week 1, it will likely take him a game or two to round into form. While Manning should be back to 100 percent at some point soon, he has September baggage.

Colts skill players: This just in: Jim Sorgi is not as good as Peyton Manning. And since I'm worried about Manning, I have to downgrade Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez. I'm not talking a big downgrade, but if choosing between Wayne (ADP: 14) and Braylon Edwards (ADP: 18), for instance, I'd choose Edwards. And until Manning shows he's healthy, I'd definitely avoid having more than one of the Colts studs on my team. The fact that Jeff Saturday, the Colts' Pro Bowl center, might be out for an extended period further cements my view here.

Bengals offensive players: Chad Johnson's injury is more serious than the Bengals are letting on. Rudi Johnson looks washed up. Chris Perry has not looked good this preseason. Carson Palmer is getting battered. All in all, I would not be disappointed if I had no Bengals on my team. I'm OK with getting Kenny Watson late; but other than that, it might be a wasteland in Cincy this year.

 Tags  Anquan Boldin Buffalo Bills Cincinnati Bengals Devin Hester football Indianapolis Colts Jay Cutler Mark Stopa NFL Stock Watch Peyton Manning Reggie Williams Santonio Holmes Tom Brady

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