Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Mark P. Stopa

As much as I love the NFL, I really hate preseason football. It's kind of like being in high school and being friends with a really attractive cheerleader who won't date you. You want more - you just can't have it. Fortunately, now that the third preseason game is upon us, more is coming -- and soon.

To help place recommendations in a context most useful to fantasy leaguers, I'm noting each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, based on results from hundreds of live drafts and courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" during the preseason mean I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals (ADP: 150): I upgraded Kurt Warner (ADP: 194) just two weeks ago. And I still think Warner is being drafted too low. But as the 21st QB off of the board, so is Leinart. Playing in a bad division, with their home games in the desert (weather thus never a factor) and with Fitz and Boldin at WR, one of the Cardinals' QBs is going to be starter-worthy. Which one? Leinart is playing well enough that you cannot automatically assume he will spit the bit and get benched. At this point, considering both can be had so cheaply, I'm fine with drafting both Leinart and Warner and playing whoever is starting.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens (ADP: 110): I know that Jim Harbaugh told reporters that Willis McGahee (ADP: 21) is still the starter. But the fact that he even had to answer that question speaks volumes about Rice. While the rookie from Rutgers is still second on the depth chart, I'd much prefer getting Rice around pick 100 than McGahee at pick 21, his current ADP. (My colleague, Mike Salfino, agreed in this week's Scouting Notebook.)

Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos (ADP: 198): At this time last year, Brandon Marshall impressed Broncos coaches during camp, but as a young, no-name WR opposite an established star (Javon Walker), Marshall was little more than a late-round flier in fantasy drafts. Marshall soon became fantasy gold. This year, Walker is gone, Marshall has been suspended three games and Royal is the young WR impressing Broncos coaches. I'm not saying that Royal will post the stats that Marshall put up last year, but he's definitely worth drafting at least a round or two before his ADP.

Brandon Coutu, K, Seahawks (ADP: undrafted): I really hate discussing kickers, because they, along with team defense, should always be drafted with your last two picks. My purpose in mentioning Couto is not to suggest that you stray from that strategy. Rather, it's to remind you that no-name kickers come out of nowhere every year and become top-5 fantasy kickers. Hence, even though I think that Couto is this year's Nick Folk/Mason Crosby, do not reach for him. Most of your league-mates have not heard of him anyway.

No Change

95% of NFL players: Do not overemphasize preseason stats. Injuries that may linger into the regular season, role changes or changes in the depth chart are far more important than who scored a TD in the fourth quarter against a third-string defense.

Kyle Orton, QB, Bears (ADP: undrafted): I know Orton was just announced as the Bears' starting QB. But if he is not the worst QB in the NFL, he's certainly in the running. Do not pin any fantasy hopes on this retread, no matter how cheaply you get him.

Downgrades

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (ADP: 20): Maroney does not like being called "injury-prone," but that's what he is. Bill Belichick realizes it, which is why the Patriots signed LaMont Jordan. With Sammy Morris also in the fold, Maroney is not certain enough to get the carries week-to-week to justify being taken 20th overall.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets (ADP: 44): At 30 years old, and coming off a season with 3.6 yards per carry and just two TDs, the end is near. Plus, the Jets really like Leon Washington, who has far more burst than Jones. You can do better with your fourth-round pick.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals (ADP: 58): Speaking of "the end is near," Johnson's preseason hamstring injury troubles me, as he struggled mightily with hamstring injuries last year. At this point, I think it's 50/50 that Kenny Watson (ADP: 115) and/or Chris Perry (ADP: 174) outperform Johnson this year.

 Tags  Brandon Cuoto Eddie Royal football Kyle Orton Laurence Maroney Mark Stopa Matt Leinart NFL Stock Watch Ray Rice Rudi Johnson Thomas Jones

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