Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Mark P. Stopa

Are you tired of hearing about Brett Favre? I know I am. Despite all the coverage about him, though, nobody seems to be giving any insightful fantasy analysis. I will try to change that, along with some other insights to help as you prepare for your fantasy draft.

To help put things in context, I provide each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, which is based on the results of hundreds of fantasy drafts, courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" during the preseason means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Matt Forte, RB, Bears (ADP: 62): Every year, a rookie RB has more than 1,000 yards and 8 to 10 TDs. Last year it was Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. This year it will be Forte. Let's face it: The Bears know they aren't going to win with Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman throwing the ball all game. I'd take Forte earlier than the sixth round, ahead of RBs such as Julius Jones (ADP: 53) and Fred Taylor (ADP: 57).

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions (ADP: 73): See Matt Forte. Also note that Smith just started getting regular reps with the first team after Tatum Bell spit the bit this weekend (7 carries, 8 yards). His 450 carries last year at Central Florida are a concern, but he can obviously handle a feature-back workload.

Selvin Young and Andre Hall, RB, Broncos (ADP: 64, 184, respectively): Last year, the Broncos' RB situation was a mess. But that was an anomaly. Nearly every year under Mike Shanahan, a Broncos RB has emerged, often out of nowhere, and put up good numbers. (Remember Olandis Gary?) So while your league-mates remember last year and avoid Denver RBs, I suggest you take Young in the fifth or sixth round, handcuff him with Hall later in the draft, and get 1RB value when one of them locks down the starting role. It's a little risky, but with Ryan Torain out of the picture (broken elbow), chances are that either Young or Hall will emerge.

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints (ADP: 176): Somebody is going to start at WR opposite Marques Colston. My money is on Meachem, the Saints' 2007 first-round pick. The Saints can score and are the most pass-happy team in the league; so there is upside here.

No Change

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (ADP: 48): I've seen McFadden going in the third round in lots of mock drafts. I think fourth/fifth round for McFadden is about right. Sure, the explosiveness and upside are there. But Justin Fargas and Michael Bush (the favorite for goal-line carries) are very much in the picture, and the Raiders' offense isn't good enough for all of these guys to get enough touches every week. I like McFadden as a fourth-rounder, not before.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (ADP: 5): His holdout is starting to concern me. But I'd be shocked if Jackson actually sits out any regular-season games. Give it another two to three weeks; if Jackson hasn't reported to camp by then, that's when I'll downgrade him.

Downgrades

Brett Favre, QB, Jets (no ADP yet): The hype surrounding Favre right now is insane. Can he live up to it? I'm skeptical. He was good last year, sure, but his supporting cast in Green Bay was NFC-Championship caliber. In 2006 and 2005, with supporting casts more closely resembling the one he will have this year with the Jets, Favre had 38 TDs (in two seasons), 47 INTs and a putrid 6.35 YPA. Around Week 10, when the Jets are 3-4 games behind the Patriots and it becomes apparent they aren't going to the playoffs, Favre is going to wish he stayed retired. Then, you'll be glad that you let somebody else buy into the preseason hype.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks (ADP: 59): Quick, name a wide receiver on the Seahawks. Nate Burleson, OK. Name another. Bobby Engram? No, he just cracked his shoulder and is out six to eight weeks. Deion Branch? He's injured, too. DJ Hackett? He's a Panther now. Hasselbeck is still a good QB, but his lack of weapons at WR and TE is troubling. I'd put Hasselbeck in the same group with Donovan McNabb (also being over-drafted at his ADP of 65). That means he's a notch below the top seven QBs (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Anderson -- in that order on my cheat sheet).

All Tight Ends: It wasn't long ago that Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez were head and shoulders above the other tight ends in the league, justifying their selection in the second or third round. This year, there are numerous starter-quality tight ends, including, count with me, Gates (1), Gonzalez (2), Jason Witten (3), Kellen Winslow (4), Dallas Clark (5), Chris Cooley (6), Jeremy Shockey (7), Vernon Davis (8), Todd Heap (9), Heath Miller (10), Ben Watson (11), Alge Crumpler (12). Why did I count them out? Well, if there are 12 teams in your league, that means you can wait until the 12th or 13th round (Crumpler's ADP is 131) and still fill the need, allowing you to spend your earlier picks on RBs and WRs.

Michael Salfino contributed to this report.

 Tags  Andre Hall Brett Favre Darren McFadden football Kevin Smith Mark Stopa Matt Forte Matt Hasselbeck NFL Stock Watch Robert Meachem Selvin Young Steven Jackson

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