11:52 AM Wed, Aug 20, 2008 | Permalink
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By Michael Salfino
Every winter, I mine the Bill James Handbook for columns and wish the great information it contains was available during the regular season. Now, it is, via his web site, BillJamesOnline.com. The data there is provided by Baseball Info Solutions, which assists us here throughout the season.
So let's use James' site, which costs just $3 per month for full access, to help quantify baserunning and defense - always a source of statistical controversy. We'll also look at one of the interesting team stats James tracks - the number of starts by the five starters who broke camp back in March - and see for ourselves how that correlates to winning.
The best baserunners by James' definition aren't the ones who are necessarily the fastest or who steal the most bases. Instead, they are the ones who avoid double plays and take the extra base without being thrown out, whether by stealing or just being smartly aggressive advancing on hits.
In 2007, the Mets' Jose Reyes led the majors with 63 bases gained. This year, the league leader is Colorado's Wily Taveras, plus-56. Following him are Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners, plus-52), Ian Kinsler (Rangers, plus-41, but possibly out for the year with a hernia), Grady Sizemore (Indians, plus-41), Randy Winn (Giants, plus-37) and Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox, plus-36). Reyes is now at plus-25 for the year, mostly because he's on pace for about 20 fewer steals.
Let's focus on the two defensive positions that get the most action - shortstop and centerfield. James looks at a player's plus/minus number, which is how many plays they have netted relative to those an average fielder at his position would make. There's no formula involved here; instead, each play is reviewed by the Baseball Information Solutions video scouts.
The Braves' Yunel Escobar leads the shortstops at plus-27, followed by J.J. Hardy (Brewers, plus-16), Jack Wilson (Pirates, plus-13), Mike Aviles (Royals, plus-11), Omar Vizquel (Giants, plus-10) and Jimmy Rollins (Phillies, plus-9).
Gold Glover Derek Jeter is minus-7, a big improvement over last year (minus-34). But he still struggles moving to his right (minus-15 on balls that direction this year).
In center, we have an ex-Met and present Met at the top of the leader board. Carlos Gomez, traded to the Twins as part of the Johan Santana booty, is plus-26. Carlos Beltran is plus-20. After him are Diamondback Chris Young (plus-15), Marlin Cody Ross and Padre Jody Gerut (plus-11, obviously recovered from his near catastrophic knee injury).
The AL teams with the most starts from the five pitchers who broke camp are the White Sox (120), the Blue Jays (112), the Red Sox (108), the Mariners (107), the Angels (104), the Rays (103) and the Twins (100). The five teams either leading their division or most seriously contending for the wild card are all represented here. The Yankees? They're second worst (to the Rangers) with 82.
In the NL, the teams with the most staff continuity are the Phillies (117), the Mets (113), the Reds (109), the Brewers (104) and the Cubs (103). Four of those five are in the heat of the pennant race. But the contending (sort of) Dodgers are at just 73, second-worst to the Braves (a devastatingly low 68).
Let's use these stats as a starting point for our player recommendations this week.
Buy
Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays: He's the best starter in the AL because of his own supreme ability, combined with the very underrated Toronto defense, which leads all of baseball with plus-57 plays that an average defensive team wouldn't have made. Halladay has pitched an old-school 17 percent of his team's innings, meaning the expectation is that about 10 of these plays have been to his benefit.
Joel Pineiro, P, Cardinals: St. Louis is the Toronto of the NL, at plus-55 in team defense. Pineiro is still being vexed by the long ball (17 for the year and four in his last three starts), but has strung a nice month together and should be expected to perform as well going forward as the more sought-after Kyle Lohse, as they have similar stuff.
Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: More proof that there are numerous players toiling in obscurity in the minors who can be quality big leaguers. Aviles was viewed as a decent hitter who couldn't defend well enough. But look at those 2008 results in a partial season (plus-11 already).
Hold
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets: Still a plus-baserunner and a much better hitter than last year. For example, he leads the majors in two-hit games with 40.
Sell
Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox: "Numbing and tingling in [Beckett's] right arm" does not bode well for the Sox' pennant push. They say he slept on it wrong. But after giving up eight runs in two-plus innings on Saturday, his next start is being pushed back at least until Tuesday. The alarm bells should be ringing in Boston.
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