Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The Olympics have stirred up quite a baseball debate. Actually, it's more like a diatribe against change. The medalists in baseball could be determined by a new rule that looks to short circuit extra-inning games by having each team start the 11th inning and all innings thereafter with runners on first and second and no one out.

Oh, and you get to pick where you want to start your lineup -- the two runners on base must be the two batters who preceeded your hitter (and lineup starter) of choice. After the 11th inning, though, the lineup starts where it left off, except that the first two hitters due up don't hit but are placed on first and second base.

Bob Costas must have reacted like Jack Woltz when he found that severed horse's head in his bed in "The Godfather." The purist ideal of baseball lies in bloody ruins.

But I find the strategic implications so intoxicating that I wouldn't mind having this done in the major leagues, similar to how hockey ends regular-season ties differently. We can keep the old-school way of settling tie games intact for the postseason.

But how much bang is the Olympics getting in doing this to end tied contests sooner? Isn't it almost as likely to end up tied after an inning where teams start this same way instead of starting the regular way -- no one on and no outs?

After one inning, you have a 23-percent chance to still be tied the Olympic way, versus 53 percent the traditional way. After two innings, that changes to 5 percent (still tied) the Olympic way and 28 percent the traditional way. This data comes from Tom Tango, co-author of "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball."

The strategy conundrum is best explained by Davey Johnson, the U.S. Olympic manager and opponent of the new idea:

"We'll probably try different scenarios," Johnson said. "[Do you] play for one run or for a bunch of runs?" That depends, he said, on what scouts tell him about the run-producing ability of the opponent.

Think of how much fun this could be in the majors. Of course, managers would hate it, because the possibilities for second-guessing are endless. Ironically, the thing purists love most about baseball is second-guessing, yet they hate this rule.

The people making this decision could have done far worse things to more quickly end tied games. A home-run-hitting contest or other skills competition is too far removed from the essence of the game, which this new rule still embraces. You have to use a pitcher with a defense behind him. You have to set your lineup. You have to decide whether to play for the big inning or whether a mere run will be enough considering who pitches your bottom half of the inning. The manager of the home team has it easy because he knows in his half-inning exactly what he needs to do. Of course, so does the opponent, who can bring the infield in or load up the bases to create a force situation at home.

All this talk about late-inning close games logically flows into a discussion of relievers. Let's assess some noteworthy big-league names.

Buy

Joakim Soria, Royals: The best reliever in baseball: 11 walks and 29 hits in 54 innings with 58 Ks closes the case.

Grant Balfour, Rays: He's been as lights-out as Soria without the saves. His 50 Ks and 12 hits in 35 innings says he's turning the AL into a Little League playground.

Hold

Francisco Rodriguez, Angels: His K-rate is at four-year low, and his walk rate at four-year high. His ERA should be about 3.84 with average luck on balls in play (76 percent are outs this year, 70 percent last year).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: With average defense behind him and average luck in stranding baserunners, his ERA would be 2.29, not 3.65. The line-drive rate is high, though: 23 percent.

Trevor Hoffman, Padres: His fastball speed, on average, is at a four-year high (86 mph), according to my friends at Baseball Info Solutions. It's batting practice when hitters guess right (7 homers in 36 innings). But he doesn't hurt himself (five unintentional walks).

Sell

George Sherrill, Orioles: This year's Joe Borowksi: 1.51 ratio and 4.66 ERA. "Guts and savvy" are euphemisms for "dumb luck." Borowski's guts this year are presumably intact, along with his savvy, but he's out on the pavement because the luck ran out.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: With 22 Ks in 42 innings, he's turned into the new Todd Jones -- in other words, too finesse.

Kevin Gregg, Marlins: Terrible control (28 walks in 54 frames). He's survived by allowing one homer in 54 innings. Is giving up homers beyond a pitcher's control to a large extent? I think so, because hitters dictate outcomes, too.

 Tags  baseball Baseball by the Numbers Bobby Jenks Francisco Rodriguez George Sherrill Grant Balfour Joakim Soria Jonathan Broxton Kevin Gregg Michael Salfino Trevor Hoffman

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