Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Pitchers are the teasing sirens of fantasy baseball, so we'll start off our American League notebook with a stroll around the mound, looking to separate the contenders from the pretenders, the value plays from the temporary mirages.

BUY

Grant Balfour, RP, Rays: While it's possible Joe Maddon will go to a closer-by-committee while Troy Percival sits on the DL, the hard-chucking Balfour deserves a shot in the big chair. The Australian right-hander has posted video-game stats in 2008 (1.21 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 55 strikeouts in 37.1 innings), and he's converted four of the five save chances that have fallen to him.

SELL

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox: He's carrying some pretty surface stats (14-2 record, 2.74 ERA), but there are some dark clouds looming (a mediocre 103-72 strikeout to walk ratio, for one thing). If you hash out all the peripheral numbers, Matsuzaka's true ERA should be just over four; that's a geeky way of saying "trade him before the crash hits."

Jesse Litsch, SP, Blue Jays: He ducked and dodged his way through seven scoreless innings in Detroit on Thursday, but pitching to contact is always a dangerous way to make your living in the majors, especially when most of your starts come in the AL East. Package Litsch's sharp return and reasonable ERA to one of the less-sophisticated owners in your league, you can probably get something. That 4.57 K/9 ratio sticks out like a sore (BlackBerry) thumb, and the Yankees aren't an easy draw next week.

HOLD

Paul Byrd, SP, Red Sox: A lot of the Litsch argument will apply here, but Byrd has two advantages: he's been sharp as a tack the last month, and the Boston offense will put him in a good position for victories. If you stand fairly well with ERA and WHIP, Byrd isn't a bad rental as you chase a few wins.

Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: His scoreless-inning streak was a fluke, sure, but his insane ground-ball rate backs up his success, and it's near-impossible to get an extra-base hit off this guy. Ziegler will have to battle for save chances in Oakland - the A's have quietly assembled a very deep bullpen - but even in mixed leagues, he's worth holding onto (and rooting on) for the balance of 2008.

Hitters

BUY

Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: He's been ballistic on the road trip (14-for-27), and the offensive numbers flow even easier in Arlington. The Rangers had a lineup spot there for the taking when David Murphy went down, and Byrd has stepped up and claimed the position, emphatically. Location, location, location.

SELL

Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles: It's been pretty close to a career year for the sweet-swinging lefty (.300, 25 homers, 80 RBIs), but heads-up if you're in an AL-only league that doesn't include carryover stats: the Orioles have passed Huff through waivers, and they'll be trying to trade him for the rest of the month. It might be wise to explore a trade yourself, just in case.

Gerald Laird, C, Rangers: He's dealing with a sore back and hasn't been playing the last few days, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia is trying to stay on the field despite a broken bone in the bottom of his foot. It's tempting to latch onto any part of the Arlington offensive frenzy as possible, but here's one time where it might be wise to stay away.

HOLD

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: Sore wrist, eh? Ask the Rangers about it - they watched Ortiz pile up three homers, seven runs and nine RBIs over the last three days. This is also another strike against lineup protection - Ortiz and the Sox haven't missed Manny Ramirez one bit.

 Tags  AL Stock Watch Aubrey Huff baseball Brad Ziegler Daisuke Matsuzaka David Ferris David Ortiz Gerald Laird Grant Balfour Jesse Litsch Paul Byrd

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