Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

August 2008 Archives

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Sept. 1 to 7, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Lyle Overbay, 1B, Blue Jays: After a largely disappointing season, he's finally showing signs of life, posting a .385 average, two homers, and eight runs batted in during the past week. During his last healthy September ('06), his .326 average made him a nice corner infield option for those looking to solidify the position during the season's final month.

Paul Byrd, SP, Red Sox: What a run this guy has been on, winning six of his past seven decisions, with more on the horizon following his trade to Boston. He's got a tidy 3.31 ERA over the past month, and gets two starts this week against the Orioles and the Rangers -- teams seeing him for the first time this season. Double the starts means double the Ks this week.

Bench 'em

Hank Blalock, 1B/3B, Rangers: Those hoping for a late-season boost from the often injured Ranger can forget about it, as he's struggled mightily since returning from the DL (just four singles his first 24 ABs). He's no sure thing to stay healthy; so those in leagues setting weekly lineups need to find another option because the next injury could be just one wrong step away.

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: Let's start with his 5.52 ERA and one win during the past month and combine that with his 4.50 ERA in September '07. That's a fantasy pitcher who doesn't look like a great play as the season winds down. His one start this week is against the White Sox, whom he's beaten twice already this season. Major league hitters make adjustments though, and with his recent performance, he looks like a sketchy play this week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B/OF, Astros: He holds quality value due to his multi-position eligibility, but now has seriously improved his stock due to his hot hitting ways. Over the past month, he's belted nine home runs, driven in 23 runs, and is hitting for a .371 average. He takes a trip to Coors Field to face the Rockies this week, always a plus for fantasy hitters.

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates: He's been pretty bad this season, but has yielded some good results recently (three out of his previous four starts have been quality). And he has a two-start week against the Reds and the Giants. He's been horribly unlucky this season, with an average on balls in play at .370 (way above the league average of .300). He has strikeout potential (7.29 K/9) that could really shine against two of the weaker NL lineups.

Bench 'em

Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates: Fantasy owners in deeper leagues were salivating at the possibility of him getting full-time at-bats following a trade to the Pirates, but he's been nothing short of a bust since, gathering a pathetic eight hits during the month of August. Keep him on your radar in the late rounds of '09 drafts, but cut ties with him now before he does more damage to your team. That .159 batting average is sure to hurt his value heading into next year.

Jamie Moyer, SP, Phillies: The old guy just keeps getting the job done, posting another double-digit win season, his fourth in a row. What I don't like about him is his lone start against the Mets, a team facing him for the sixth time this season. He was pounded by the Amazins just last week. The risk here is not worth the reward.

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By David Ferris

The Indians have let us down for most of the summer - yours truly had them winning the pennant back in March - but that doesn't mean they have to be off the fantasy radar. Four notable Indians get mentions as we track the current movers and shakers in the Junior Circuit; Cleveland can rock down the stretch, and let's get a piece of it.

Hitters

BUY

Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers: Is he the quintessential Four-A player, or is Cruz finally ready to make good in Arlington this time around? Hard to say, but after his monstrous season in Triple-A (.342, 39 homers, 24 steals), how can you not give him a shot? He's 3 for 11 with a homer since the recall, and the Rangers seem committed to playing him at least most of the time.

SELL

Travis Hafner, 1B/DH, Indians: He's had another setback with the shoulder rehab, and you have to wonder if the Indians are close to pulling the plug on his 2008 season. With rosters expanding and player auditions going on all over the map, I can't justify holding a fantasy slot for a maybe like Hafner, especially given the train wreck he's shown us over the last two seasons. It's going to take awhile to rebuild this guy again.

HOLD

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: All goes well with the foot rehab
(he's already running), and the club thinks Jones might return early next week. Baltimore's had the AL's loudest offense in the second half, and Mr. Jones will fit right in.

Kelly Shoppach, C, Indians: He'll lose a little time to Victor Martinez the next four weeks, but Eric Wedge isn't stupid - he'll make sure Shoppach's heavy bat gets plenty of use. Shoppach has 10 homers and a .621 slugging percentage in the second half, and Martinez figures to see work at 1B and DH in addition to behind the plate.

Pitchers

BUY

Jensen Lewis, RP, Indians: Just about any big-league caliber arm can close, case No. 7,892. The Indians are playing much better this month and Lewis is getting the cushy ninth-inning role, which is how you pick up seven saves in less than three weeks. Talent and moxie are great for the ninth inning, but opportunity remains the most important element, at least from a fantasy perspective. Don't look too deep into Lewis' stat profile, it might get you off the scent. Just take heart in the fact that he's quickly built confidence and trust in this new role, and Eric Wedge is thrilled to have a solidified closer spot after watching four months of hell back there.

SELL

Jesse Litsch, SP, Blue Jays: He's a pitch-to-contact guy, a tough game to play when you toil in the AL East (where everyone else can pile up the runs). The artificial surface in Toronto doesn't make the task easier. Let someone else chase the wins and the risky innings.

Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox: Elbow soreness, visiting Dr. James Andrews, DL trip. The Red Sox have to look at October here (and 2009 and beyond), while fantasy owners have to worry about September. Take your expectations way, way down on this one.

HOLD

Anthony Reyes, SP, Indians: Getting out of St. Louis was a necessary move for him (he didn't see eye to eye with the coaching staff), and the early returns in the AL have been super (four strong turns, 2.22 ERA). The story isn't as fun when you look at the peripherals (10 walks against 11 strikeouts, 1.36 ratio). But a roomy park and a meaty ground-ball rate should keep Reyes in our good graces down the stretch.

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By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/ receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

* = check player status

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. *Peyton Manning, Colts
NOTE: Too much uncertainty; let someone else have him.
5. Carson Palmer, Bengals
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Derek Anderson, Browns
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
9. Jay Cutler, Broncos
NOTE: Great values to be had with this passing game.
10. Eli Manning, Giants
11. Brett Favre, Jets
12. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
NOTE: Who's he going to throw to in September?
13. David Garrard, Jaguars
14. Matt Schaub, Texans
15. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
NOTE: Buy him for second half.
16. Marc Bulger, Rams
17. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
18. Jon Kitna, Lions
19. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
NOTE: Do the right thing, Ken Whisenhunt.
20. Philip Rivers, Chargers
21. Vince Young, Titans
22. *Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
23. Jason Campbell, Redskins
NOTE: Looked lost at Carolina.
24. J.T. O'Sullivan, 49ers
25. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
26. Trent Edwards, Bills
27. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
28. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
29. Matt Ryan, Falcons
30. Kyle Orton, Bears
31. Troy Smith, Ravens
32. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
33. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
34. Sage Rosenfels, Texans
NOTE: Snap him up if Schaub gets hurt.
35. Joe Flacco, Ravens
36. Brady Quinn, Browns
37. Alex Smith, 49ers
38. Damon Huard, Chiefs
39. Chris Redman, Falcons
40. Josh McCown, Dolphins
41. Rex Grossman, Bears
42. Kellen Clemens, Jets

Running back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Steven Jackson, Rams
4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
5. Joseph Addai, Colts
6. Clinton Portis, Redskins
7. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
NOTE: Buffalo never junks the running game.
8. Marion Barber, Cowboys
NOTE: High-contact style a concern as touches increase.
9. Frank Gore, 49ers
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
NOTE: Offensive line is a mess.
13. Jamal Lewis, Browns
NOTE: Safer than you think.
14. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
15. Michael Turner, Falcons
16. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
17. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
NOTE: What we saw in 2007 is real.
18. Reggie Bush, Saints
19. Thomas Jones, Jets
NOTE: Sluggish summer, but more holes will be there.
20. *Willis McGahee, Ravens
21. Willie Parker, Steelers
22. Darren McFadden, Raiders
23. LenDale White, Titans
NOTE: Will lose 8-10 touches to Chris Johnson.
24. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
25. Selvin Young, Broncos
26. Matt Forte, Bears
NOTE: Every-down back, but supporting cast a concern.
27. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
28. Kevin Smith, Lions
NOTE: One for the Mallrats.
29. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
30. *Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
NOTE: Messy summer, let someone else have him.
31. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
32. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
NOTE: Buzz rookie, but Parker is still here.
33. Ray Rice, Ravens
34. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
35. Chris Johnson, Titans
36. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
37. Chester Taylor, Vikings
38. Felix Jones, Cowboys
39. Julius Jones, Seahawks
40. Justin Fargas, Raiders
41. Chris Perry, Bengals
42. *Rudi Johnson, Bengals
NOTE: Might be gone before opener.
43. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
44. Steve Slaton, Texans
NOTE: The highest upside of the stable.
44. Leon Washington, Jets
45. Pierre Thomas, Saints
47. *Ahman Green, Texans
NOTE: Hard to be optimistic here.
48. Kenny Watson, Bengals
49. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
50. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
NOTE: Dynamic at the goal line.
51. Sammy Morris, Patriots
52. Fred Jackson, Bills
53. Derrick Ward, Giants
54. Lorenzo Booker, Eagles
55. Ladell Betts, Redskins
56. Chris Taylor, Texans
NOTE: They sure have a lot of options, don't they?
57. Chris Brown, Texans
58. Andre Hall, Broncos
NOTE: Will mess things up for Young, a bit.
59. Brandon Jackson, Packers
60. Kevin Jones, Bears
61. Tatum Bell, Lions
62. Michael Pittman, Broncos
63. Darren Sproles, Chargers
64. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
65. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
66. Jesse Chatman, Jets
67. Deuce McAllister, Saints
NOTE: Don't even bother at this point.
68. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
69. Jason Wright, Browns
70. Michael Bush, Raiders
71. Jerome Harrison, Browns
72. Adrian Peterson, Bears
73. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
74. Mike Hart, Colts
75. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
76. LaMont Jordan, Patriots
77. Jacob Hester, Chargers
78. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
79. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
80. Brian Leonard, Rams
81. Aaron Stecker, Saints
82. Chris Henry, Titans
83. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
84. *Ryan Torain, Broncos

Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
3. Reggie Wayne, Colts
4. Braylon Edwards, Browns
5. Andre Johnson, Texans
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
NOTE: Upside unlimited if Warner starts.
7. Marques Colston, Saints
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
9. Torry Holt, Rams
10. *Plaxico Burress, Giants
11. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
12. *Steve Smith, Panthers
13. Wes Welker, Patriots
14. *Brandon Marshall, Broncos
NOTE: Could outscore them all in second half.
15. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
NOTE: Can beat you short, medium and deep.
16. Roy Williams, Lions
17. *Chad Johnson, Bengals
18. Calvin Johnson, Lions
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
19. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
NOTE: Switch to Favre helps him most.
20. Greg Jennings, Packers
21. Roddy White, Falcons
22. Hines Ward, Steelers
23. Lee Evans, Bills
NOTE: Would be a star in a different city.
24. Marvin Harrison, Colts
25. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
26. Donald Driver, Packers
27. Laveranues Coles, Jets
NOTE: How quickly can he mesh with Favre?
28. Chris Chambers, Chargers
29. Nate Burleson, Seahawks
NOTE: Only show in town, for now.
30. Santana Moss, Redskins
31. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
32. Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
NOTE: Could be the cliff season.
33. *Reggie Brown, Eagles
34. Kevin Walter, Texans
NOTEL: Please get him as your third or fourth receiver.
35. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
36. Ronald Curry, Raiders
37. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
38. Reggie Williams, Jaguars
39. Sidney Rice, Vikings
NOTE: Star waiting to happen, but Jackson holds things back.
40. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
41. Derrick Mason, Ravens
42. Justin Gage, Titans
NOTE: Better than you think.
43. Isaac Bruce, 49ers
44. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
45. *D.J. Hackett, Panthers
46. Robert Meachem, Saints
47. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
NOTE: Curtis injury gives him a chance.
48. Jerry Porter, Jaguars
49. *Javon Walker, Raiders
50. Drew Bennett, Rams
51. Donte' Stallworth, Browns
52. Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
53. Josh Morgan, 49ers
NOTE: Take him in second-to-last round.
54. Devin Hester, Bears
55. *Bryant Johnson, 49ers
56. *Chris Henry, Bengals
NOTE: His signing shows how desperate Cincinnati is.
57. Eddie Royal, Broncos
58. Marty Booker, Bears
59. Derek Hagan, Dolphins
60. *Bobby Engram, Seahawks
NOTE: Out the first few games.
61. Brandon Lloyd, Bears
62. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
63. Mark Clayton, Ravens
64. Amani Toomer, Giants
65. Maurice Stovall, Buccaneers
NOTE: Deeper sleeper in larger leagues.
66. Darrell Jackson, Broncos
67. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
68. Ernest Wilford, Dolphins
69. Matt Jones, Jaguars
70. Courtney Taylor, Seahawks
71. *Deion Branch, Seahawks
72. James Hardy, Bills
73. Ike Hilliard, Buccaneers
74. Demetrius Williams, Ravens
75. Brandon Stokley, Broncos
76. *Laurent Robinson, Falcons
NOTE: Took a step back this summer.
77. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
78. David Patten, Saints
79. Greg Lewis, Eagles
80. Hank Baskett, Eagles
81. Limas Sweed, Steelers
82. Mark Bradley, Bears
83. *Kevin Curtis, Eagles
NOTE: Might be out two months (hernia surgery).
84. Bobby Wade, Vikings
85. Roydell Williams, Titans
86. Early Doucet, Cardinals
87. Chad Jackson, Patriots

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, Cowboys
2. Kellen Winslow, Browns
3. *Antonio Gates, Chargers
4. Dallas Clark, Colts
5. Chris Cooley, Redskins
6. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
7. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
8. Heath Miller, Steelers
9. Owen Daniels, Texans
NOTE: One of several values at the position.
10. Vernon Davis, 49ers
11. Tony Scheffler, Broncos
NOTE: Could score 7-9 times.
12. Todd Heap, Ravens
13. Alge Crumpler, Titans
14. Zach Miller, Raiders
NOTE: Might lead team in receiving.
15. Donald Lee, Packers
16. L.J. Smith, Eagles
17. Greg Olsen, Bears
18. Ben Watson, Patriots
19. Dustin Keller, Jets
NOTE: Dallas Clark 2.0.
20. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
21. Kevin Boss, Giants
22. Ben Utecht, Bengals
23. Randy McMichael, Rams
24. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
25. Desmond Clark, Bears
26. Alex Smith, Buccaneers
27. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
28. Jeff King, Panthers
29. David Martin, Dolphins
30. John Carlson, Seahawks
31. Chris Baker, Jets
32. Daniel Graham, Broncos
33. Robert Royal, Bills
34. Bo Scaife, Titans

Kicker
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys
NOTE: Legit, but let someone else reach.
2. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
5. Mason Crosby, Packers
6. *Rob Bironas, Titans
NOTE: Been nicked up all month.
7. Shayne Graham, Bengals
8. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
NOTE: No longer money from long range.
9. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
10. Josh Brown, Rams
11. David Akers, Eagles
12. Kris Brown, Texans
13. Phil Dawson, Browns
14. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
15. Mike Nugent, Jets
16. Jeff Reed, Steelers
17. Shaun Suisham, Redskins
18. Jason Hanson, Lions
19. Rian Lindell, Bills
NOTE: Super talent, but stadium doesn't help.
20. Robbie Gould, Bears
21. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
22. Matt Stover, Ravens
23. John Kasay, Panthers
24. Matt Prater, Broncos
25. Jason Elam, Falcons
26. Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
27. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
28. Joe Nedney, 49ers
29. *Brandon Coutu, Seahawks
30. Martin Gramatica, Saints
31. Billy Cundiff, Chiefs
32. Dan Carpenter, Dolphins

Defense
1. Vikings
NOTE: This year's consensus monster.
2. Cowboys
3. Chargers
NOTE: Merriman status a major concern.
4. Patriots
5. Jaguars
6. Giants
7. Bears
8. Seahawks
NOTE: They really dominate at home.
9. Packers
10. Steelers
11. Buccaneers
12. Ravens
13. Eagles
14. Panthers
NOTE: Peppers playing for next contract.
15. Redskins
NOTE: Keep an eye on Taylor.
16. Titans
17. Bills
18. Texans
19. Colts
20. Raiders
21. Broncos
22. Cardinals
23. Jets
24. Falcons
25. 49ers
26. Browns
27. Bengals
28. Rams
29. Chiefs
30. Lions
31. Saints
32. Dolphins

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By David Ferris

We spend most of our time in this crazy pursuit studying a player's talent and stat profile, but sometimes it's a change in opportunity that makes all the difference on the stock chart. Keep that in mind as you monitor the NL movers and shakers along with us.

Batters

BUY

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies: He's collected a quiet 18 homers and 13 steals as part of the right-field platoon, and now the job is completely his with the stumbling Geoff Jenkins off to the DL. Werth's best skill is hammering left-handers and he's an ordinary stick against the northpaws, but he's also got a keen eye. The Philadelphia lineup has started to show its teeth a bit. Get in for the final four weeks.

Jody Gerut, OF, Padres: He's got a .326 average and eight homers since the break, and Bud Black has turned to Gerut as an every-day outfielder, using him near the top of the lineup. Gerut is capable of hitting lefties just fine, thank you (.313), and Scott Hairston's sore thumb clears the runway nicely; looks like we've got another post-hype hitter on the docket.

SELL

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: His modest power wasn't that big a deal in the first half because Fukudome was on base constantly and caught up in the undertow of the NL's best offense. Things have bottomed out in the second half (.229/.314/.347), to the point that Lou Piniella essentially considers Fukudome a part-time player right now. It's certainly cut-bait time in mixed leagues, where you need full participation from your primary guys.

HOLD

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: It's easy to dismiss the Washington lineup with a token glance, but don't look past Milledge, who's elevated his game over the last month (.321, six homers, five steals, 1.017 OPS). His string of $20 seasons could begin in 2009, and the growth he's shown this summer is still a bit under the radar, given the lack of buzz the Nationals are creating. Last winter's Milledge swap is going to haunt the Mets for a while, but in keeper leagues, you hold onto this blue-chipper with both hands; he's an ideal cornerstone to take you into the new decade -- Mike Cameron with a higher upside.

Pitchers

BUY

Luis Ayala, RP, Mets: You won't get any comfort from his stat profile, but Jerry Manuel trusts his new right-hander and opportunity is a giant part of the saves equation, for our purposes anyway. Sometimes it's more important to ask "why not?" as opposed to "why?" when a journeyman gets plugged into this important stat-grabbing spot, and that's the tack we'll take with Ayala. Hopefully the Mets can get him a lot of two- to three-run leads to work with, because he'll need the wiggle room. Upside if everything clicks: a 3.50 ERA and eight to 10 saves out the door, assuming Billy Wagner isn't a factor in September.

Matt Capps, RP, Pirates: He's back from the shoulder problem and hitting the mid-90s on the gun again, which means we can say goodbye to John Grabow (set-up) and Craig Hansen (minors) as fantasy prospects.

SELL

Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals: He's back on the DL as the shoulder is barking again, and the club probably won't take any unnecessary chances with its investment here. It's very likely Carpenter is done for the season. Fortunately for the Redbirds, a handful of other things have fallen right this month on the mound: Braden Looper is on a surprising run, Adam Wainwright has rejoined the rotation and Chris Perez is evolving into a dominant closer, steadying a position that was an absolute mess for six weeks.

HOLD

Trevor Hoffman, RP, Padres: His sloppy opening to the year had the Heath Bell vultures excited, but Hoffman has circled the wagons nicely since then (3.30 ERA, 35 strikeouts, three walks), getting the feel of his change-up back. The Padres have been a train wreck in the second half, but even losing teams can support a viable fantasy closer -- Hoffman has a win and 10 saves since the break.

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By Mark P. Stopa

Don't you hate how NFL coaches won't be honest with injury information? I mean, come on! We want to know if Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are really hurt or if they will be fine for Week 1.

Unfortunately, especially in the preseason (when NFL rules do not require teams to provide injury reports), such information is never forthcoming. Tony Dungy and Bill Belichick don't care if you are trying to decide on your starting QB for your fantasy team. Fortunately, though, I do care, and I'm more than happy to be forthright with my analysis. I'll avoid the "no duh" upgrades (e.g. Kurt Warner) and instead provide insights more under the radar.

To help place recommendations in a context most useful to fantasy leaguers, noting each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, based on results from hundreds of live drafts and courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. An "upgrade" during the preseason means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers (ADP: 48): Holmes is getting drafted as the 18th-best fantasy receiver, but I see him finishing in the top 10, easy. He led the NFL last year in yards per target, and his 2007 season statistics (942 yards, 8 TDs) undervalue him in light of the three games he missed. Entering his third year, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him and Hines Ward slowing down, I would draft Ward before Torry Holt (ADP: 33), Greg Jennings (ADP: 43) and Brandon Marshall (ADP: 43), among others.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos (ADP: 85): Of the QBs being drafted outside the top 10, Cutler and David Garrard (ADP: 107) are by far the most likely to finish as top 10 scorers. Take a chance on Cutler's upside instead of reaching for Donovan McNabb (ADP: 65).

Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars (ADP: 104): Unless you owned Williams last year, you probably didn't know that he scored 10 TDs. Williams is big, fast and has an underrated David Garrard throwing to him. So why is he getting drafted as the 39th WR? Probably because he had knee surgery this preseason. But it was a minor procedure and he's back. Draft accordingly.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears (ADP: 147): Check your league's rules to see if Hester's return TDs count if you start him at WR. If so, there are not 47 better fantasy wideouts than Hester.

Bills D/ST (ADP:203): This young, improving unit added Marcus Stroud on the D-line and can't possibly be as unlucky with injuries as last year. Factor in that Roscoe Parrish, Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin are going to get more special teams TDs than nearly every other squad, and this shapes up as a top-10 fantasy unit. Grabbing the Bills this late is yet another reason to wait until the end of your draft to fill this spot.

No Change

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (ADP: 6): I'm worried about Manning, see below, but not Brady. What's the difference? Well, Brady has been practicing. And he didn't undergo surgery. Keep drafting him as you normally would.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals (ADP: 37): Who does Boldin think he is, Chad Johnson? Just shut up and play ball. And he will. Well, maybe not the shut up part, but the play ball part for sure. And especially if Warner starts, he'll do that well enough to be the 14th-best WR.

Bills skill players: Discussing offensive tackles is boring. That's why nobody in the media is talking about how Bills Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters is holding out for a new contract and has yet to report to camp. Heck, unless you are a Buffalo fan, you probably haven't even heard of Peters. So let me put this in terms any football fan can understand - Peters is rated 97 (out of 100) in Madden '09 (the same rating as Brian Westbrook, Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald). While I suspect that Peters reports to camp soon (hence the "no change"), his holdout is at least worth mentioning, because Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans and the whole Buffalo offense would not be as valuable without Peters in the lineup.

Downgrades

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (ADP: 19): Early in the preseason, I called Manning a "no change." I was not worried about his knee injury. Now? Well, "worried" might be too strong, but I am concerned. Manning finally made it to practice yesterday. He refused to deny rumors he had a second knee surgery. The Colts have been tight-lipped about his status, and remember - they repeatedly misled the public about the extent of Marvin Harrison's injury last season. I look at the Colts' schedule and see a Week 4 bye. At this point, I would not be shocked if Manning is out until then. Even if Manning does start Week 1, it will likely take him a game or two to round into form. While Manning should be back to 100 percent at some point soon, he has September baggage.

Colts skill players: This just in: Jim Sorgi is not as good as Peyton Manning. And since I'm worried about Manning, I have to downgrade Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez. I'm not talking a big downgrade, but if choosing between Wayne (ADP: 14) and Braylon Edwards (ADP: 18), for instance, I'd choose Edwards. And until Manning shows he's healthy, I'd definitely avoid having more than one of the Colts studs on my team. The fact that Jeff Saturday, the Colts' Pro Bowl center, might be out for an extended period further cements my view here.

Bengals offensive players: Chad Johnson's injury is more serious than the Bengals are letting on. Rudi Johnson looks washed up. Chris Perry has not looked good this preseason. Carson Palmer is getting battered. All in all, I would not be disappointed if I had no Bengals on my team. I'm OK with getting Kenny Watson late; but other than that, it might be a wasteland in Cincy this year.

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By Michael Salfino

Ryan Howard has turned from league MVP to Dave Kingman - the epitome of a one-dimensional player. But he's not alone among players who do one thing really well and not much else.

Put Kingman in the run-scoring environment that Howard currently enjoys for Kingman's whole career and "Sky King" hits 509 homers with a .257 career average. Put Howard in, say, Shea Stadium in the NL, circa the late 1970s, and his power numbers mirror Kingman's, though Howard adds value with his healthy walk total (except he's more sloth-like on the bases).

Howard barely is slugging .500 with his 17 doubles this year and is on pace to strike out more than 200 times; Kingman never topped 156. They're both hacks in the field, as Howard has already committed 15 errors at first base. Kingman at least could play (okay, "man") third and a corner OF.

The Phillies should make the Kingman comparison when Howard again takes them to arbitration (he won $10 million last year when the Phillies offered $7 million). Times have changed, though, as Kingman was regarded as a circus act back then and Howard is viewed today as a perennial MVP candidate.

Here are the other players this year who do one thing well and not much else.

Cristian Guzman is hitting about .300 but has only 19 walks. He's also punch-and-judy with the .100 isolated slugging (minus batting average). To be fair, according to Baseball Info Solutions video scouts, Guzman is plus-eight (plays made versus the average shortstop), eighth-best at the position.

Willy Taveras has 61 steals and only 7 caughts, but he's slugging .311 despite getting half his games at Coors. And you can't be a table setter with a .315 on-base percentage.

One-trick pony pitchers include Carlos Silva, who has great control when it comes to putting the ball exactly where hitters want it. Yes, the 26 walks in 140 innings are nice, but 191 hits? His 6.36 ERA shows he's earned every bit of that 4-14 record (but not the four-year, $48 million contract).

The numbers say Ubaldo Jimenez is one-dimensional with that fastest fastball (94.8 mph on average, tops for starters) and lagging results. And you can't blame Coors, as his ERA there (3.31) is much better than on the road (4.77). Maybe the glass is half full with him. But given that he's second (to Barry Zito, a no-trick pony) in walks, I'd say it's more likely half empty.

Matt Lindstrom gets noticed for averaging a blistering 97 mph with his heater while striking out less than a batter and allowing more than a hit per inning. Remember, these benchmarks are about 30 percent easier for relievers to attain.

It's much harder in this offensive era for players to make a living with their glove. That's never the plan today.

But Jack Wilson (plus-12 at short) is a void (.315 on-base, .350 slugging) with the stick.

Carlos Gomez is a sick plus-26 defending center for the Twins, but "worthless" is too kind a word to describe his offensive game.

Second baseman Adam Kennedy (plus-18) and catcher Jose Molina (30 caughts in 67 stolen-base attempts versus him) would play every day if they could even hit a little bit - but they can't.

Now let's make some related recommendations.

Buy

Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers: Maybe he's an AAAA player, but .342/.429/.695 has to adjust somewhat (37 homers in 388 Triple-A at bats). Last chance for major-league romance for Cruz.

Hold

David Bush, P, Brewers: He's allowed fewer base runners per inning than Brandon Webb. But he always seems to be unlucky - this year it's homers (22). He's frustrating enough to have gotten shipped out of the rotation on the heels of a 13-K start. He's back there now, but would be an awesome closer if anyone would think outside the box.

Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: He's back in the minors indefinitely. But still consider him a top prospect. The fastball was 95 mph again Tuesday night in Double-A. But he somehow managed to allow four runs in six innings even there (0 walks, 8 Ks).

Luis Ayala, P, Mets: AKA, "the devil you don't know" in the Mets' pen right now. Except he bedeviled the Nationals before transferring to Shea. The cynic says he's gotten worse three years in a row and has middling (at best) stuff. The optimist notes opportunity is the biggest key to getting saves.

Sell

Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: Boston went fishing for some waiver-wire help after J.D. Drew went down with his herniated disc. Crisp is a great fielder, but the stick is too weak for a corner spot and the Red Sox have center covered with Jacoby Ellsbury.

Daniel Cabrera, P, Orioles: He's "no trick" now, too, as the fastball has gone from first-rate to just decent (92.8 mph on average). He's scheduled for an MRI on his elbow and has refused to discuss his health with reporters. Even when his stuff was dominating, Cabrera consistently disappointed.

---

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Next Update: 9/2

Starting Pitchers
1. CC Sabathia, Brewers
2. Johan Santana, Mets
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Rich Harden, Cubs
NOTE: Embarrassing the NL with his slider.
7. Cole Hamels, Phillies
8. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
9. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: Clear off some mantle space.
10. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
11. Jon Garland, Angels
12. Francisco Liriano, Twins
13. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
14. James Shields, Rays
15. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
16. Scott Kazmir, Rays
17. Ervin Santana, Angels
18. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
19. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
20. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
21. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
22. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. John Lackey, Angels
25. John Danks, White Sox
26. Edinson Volquez, Reds
27. Matt Cain, Giants
28. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
29. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
NOTE: At top of loaded rotation.
30. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Chase for 300 has him inspired.
31. Joe Saunders, Angels
32. Justin Verlander, Tigers
33. Jon Lester, Red Sox
34. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
35. Roy Oswalt, Astros
36. Ted Lilly, Cubs
37. Kevin Slowey, Twins
38. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
39. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
40. Matt Garza, Rays
41. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
42. Paul Maholm, Pirates
43. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
44. Oliver Perez, Mets
45. Josh Johnson, Marlins
46. Manny Parra, Brewers
47. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
48. Scott Baker, Twins
49. Mike Mussina, Yankees
50. Aaron Cook, Rockies
51. Brett Myers, Phillies
NOTE: Very sharp since brief demotion.
52. Jered Weaver, Angels
53. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
54. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
55. Zack Greinke, Royals
56. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
57. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
58. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
59. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
60. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
61. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
62. *David Price, Rays
NOTE: Should be a factor in September.
63. David Bush, Brewers
64. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
65. Gil Meche, Royals
66. Nick Blackburn, Twins
67. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
68. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
69. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
70. Pedro Martinez, Mets
71. Jorge Campillo, Braves
72. Scott Olsen, Marlins
73. Chris Volstad, Marlins
74. Phil Hughes, Yankees
75. Fausto Carmona, Indians
76. Braden Looper, Cardinals
NOTE: Mad run out of nowhere.
77. Jeff Francis, Rockies
78. *Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
79. Glen Perkins, Twins
80. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
81. Greg Maddux, Dodgers
NOTE: Deserves one more playoff stage.
82. Joe Blanton, Phillies
83. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners, Rays
84. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
85. Aaron Harang, Reds
86. Tim Redding, Nationals
87. Odalis Perez, Nationals
88. Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
89. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
90. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
91. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
92. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
93. Randy Wolf, Astros
94. *Johnny Cueto, Reds
95. Edwin Jackson, Rays
95. Brian Moehler, Astros
96. Ian Snell, Pirates
97. *Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
98. Kenny Rogers, Tigers

Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
5. Brad Lidge, Phillies
6. Joakim Soria, Royals
7. Jose Valverde, Astros
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. Brian Wilson, Giants
10. Kerry Wood, Cubs
11. *Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
14. Salomon Torres, Brewers
15. J.J. Putz, Mariners
NOTE: Stuff is on the way back.
16. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
17. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
18. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
19. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
20. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
21. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
22. Chris Perez, Cardinals
NOTE: Has the job, Wainwright to the rotation.
23. Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Back and velocity looks good.
24. Frank Francisco, Rangers
NOTE: Meet the new guy in Texas.
25. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
26. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
27. Luis Ayala, Mets
NOTE: Spotty resume but new club trusts him.
28. Dan Wheeler, Rays
29. Jim Johnson, Orioles
30. Aaron Heilman, Mets
31. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
32. *Troy Percival, Rays
33. *George Sherrill, Orioles
34. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
35. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
36. Grant Balfour, Rays
NOTE: Sliding back into set-up role.
37. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Sleeper with others struggling.
38. Joey Devine, Athletics
39. Heath Bell, Padres
40. *Billy Wagner, Mets
41. John Grabow, Pirates
42. Huston Street, Athletics
NOTE: Better of late but Ziegler has job.
43. Rafael Perez, Indians
44. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
45. Jerry Blevins, Athletics
46. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
47. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
48. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
49. Scot Shields, Angels
50. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
51. Eddie Guardado, Twins
NOTE: Value expires back in middle innings.
52. Damaso Marte, Yankees
53. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
54. Tyler Yates, Pirates
55. Chad Durbin, Phillies
56. Saul Rivera, Nationals
57. J.P. Howell, Rays
58. Joe Nelson, Marlins
59. Craig Hansen, Pirates
60. *Scott Linebrink, White Sox
61. Bob Howry, Cubs
62. Eric Gagne, Brewers
63. Kyle Farnsworth, Tigers
64. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
65. Mike Lincoln, Reds
66. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
67. Blaine Boyer, Braves
68. David Weathers, Reds
69. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
70. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
71. Jose Arredondo, Angels
72. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
73. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
74. Doug Brocail, Astros
75. Matt Thornton, White Sox

---

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

*= check status

Next Update: 9/2

First Base/DH
1. Mark Teixeira, Angels
NOTE: AL splash, but success defined in October.
2. Lance Berkman, Astros
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: A major profit guy this year.
5. Justin Morneau, Twins
6. David Ortiz, Red Sox
7. Prince Fielder, Brewers
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
10. Ryan Howard, Phillies
11. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
12. Derrek Lee, Cubs
13. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
14. Carlos Delgado, Mets
NOTE: Everyone was wrong in April.
15. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
16. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Jason Giambi, Yankees
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
21. Jim Thome, White Sox
22. Kevin Millar, Orioles
23. Casey Kotchman, Braves
24. *Travis Hafner, Indians
25. Paul Konerko, White Sox

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Brandon Phillips, Reds
4. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
7. Howie Kendrick, Angels
8. Placido Polanco, Tigers
9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
NOTE: Holding off Durham, for now.
10. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
11. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
12. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
13. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
14. Jose Lopez, Mariners
NOTE: One thing that went right in Seattle.
15. Kelly Johnson, Braves
16. Willie Harris, Nationals
17. *Mark Ellis, Athletics
18. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
21. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
22. Nick Punto, Twins
23. Alexi Casilla, Twins
NOTE: Back from thumb injury.
24. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
25. Luis Castillo, Mets
26. Ray Durham, Brewers
27. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
28. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
29. Clint Barmes, Rockies
30. Ramon Vazquez, Rangers
31. Augie Ojeda, Diamondbacks
32. Jeff Baker, Rockies
33. Brendan Harris, Twins
34. Eugenio Velez, Giants
35. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
7. Michael Young, Rangers
8. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
NOTE: Power has dropped through the floor.
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Yunel Escobar, Braves
15. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
16. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
NOTE: Useful, even at bottom of order.
17. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
19. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
20. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
21. Erick Aybar, Angels
22. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
23. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
24. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
25. Jack Wilson, Pirates

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. *Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Melvin Mora, Orioles
NOTE: Don't explain it, just enjoy it.
7. *Garrett Atkins, Rockies
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. Ty Wigginton, Astros
10. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
11. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
12. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
13. Ian Stewart, Rockies
NOTE: Cornerstone of the 2009 plan.
14. Chris Davis, Rangers
15. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
16. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
17. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
18. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
19. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
20. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
21. Ryan Garko, Indians
22. *Evan Longoria, Rays
23. Willy Aybar, Rays
24. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
25. *Joe Crede, White Sox
26. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
27. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
28. *Alex Gordon, Royals
29. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays

Outfield
1. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
2. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: A 30-30 year and he hasn't peaked yet.
4. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
5. Matt Holliday, Rockies
NOTE: Will be shopped in offseason.
6. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
7. Jason Bay, Red Sox
8. Nick Markakis, Orioles
9. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
10. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
11. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
12. Nate McLouth, Pirates
13. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
14. Corey Hart, Brewers
15. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
16. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
17. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
18. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
19. Carlos Beltran, Mets
20. Xavier Nady, Yankees
21. B.J. Upton, Rays
22. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
23. Pat Burrell, Phillies
24. Shane Victorino, Phillies
NOTE: Might be best baserunner in majors.
25. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
26. Hunter Pence, Astros
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Willy Taveras, Rockies
29. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
30. Torii Hunter, Angels
31. Jay Bruce, Reds
32. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
33. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
34. Johnny Damon, Yankees
NOTE: Still a dynamic offensive player.
35. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
36. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
37. Mike Cameron, Brewers
38. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
NOTE: Physical nicks are adding up.
39. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
40. Randy Winn, Giants
41. Denard Span, Twins
42. *Jose Guillen, Royals
43. Aaron Rowand, Giants
44. Jason Kubel, Twins
45. Nick Swisher, White Sox
46. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
47. Fred Lewis, Giants
48. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
49. Luke Scott, Orioles
50. Delmon Young, Twins
51. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
52. Jayson Werth, Phillies
NOTE: Gets a shot with Jenkins out.
53. David DeJesus, Royals
54. Chase Headley, Padres
55. Jack Cust, Athletics
56. Jody Gerut, Padres
57. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
58. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
NOTE: Gets a shot after 37 Triple-A homers.
59. *Garret Anderson, Angels
60. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
61. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
62. Juan Rivera, Angels
63. Matt Joyce, Tigers
64. Josh Willingham, Marlins
65. Ken Griffey, White Sox
66. Ben Francisco, Indians
67. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
68. Cody Ross, Marlins
69. *Michael Bourn, Astros
70. Carlos Gomez, Twins
NOTE: Rallied some, but parked in No. 9 spot.
71. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
72. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
73. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
74. Reed Johnson, Cubs
75. Brian Giles, Padres
76. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
77. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
78. Ross Gload, Royals
79. *Marcus Thames, Tigers
80. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
81. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Gets himself out too much.
82. Daniel Murphy, Mets
83. Mark Teahen, Royals
84. Fernando Tatis, Mets
85. *Adam Jones, Orioles
86. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
87. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
88. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
89. Gregor Blanco, Braves
90. Scott Hairston, Padres
91. *David Murphy, Rangers
92. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
93. *Austin Kearns, Nationals
94. *Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
95. Steve Pearce, Pirates
96. Endy Chavez, Mets
97. *Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
98. Gary Matthews, Angels

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Bengie Molina, Giants
7. Dioner Navarro, Rays
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
NOTE: Billy Idol on the baseball diamond.
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
11. *Victor Martinez, Indians
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
14. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
NOTE: Hold on tight in keeper leagues.
15. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
16. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jeff Clement, Mariners
19. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
20. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
21. John Buck, Royals
22. Brandon Inge, Tigers
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Mike Napoli, Angels
25. Chris Coste, Phillies
26. Paul Bako, Reds
27. *Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
28. Jason Kendall, Brewers
29. Jeff Mathis, Angels
30. Miguel Olivo, Royals

---

By Michael Salfino

Given that a full-time runner's NFL career is likely to be nearly over by the time his rookie four- or five-year contract expires, does it make sense for more teams to employ the ball-carrying committees that fantasy football owners dread?

Consider that no team gives all the carries to one running back, anyway. The median last year for team rushing attempts was 430. Only three running backs (Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson) had 320-plus carries. So as much as a third of the carries go to other players, even when a team has a "workhorse back." Let's then define a running back committee as the most-used back getting less than two-thirds of your team's rushing attempts by design, not injury.

Here are the teams expected to have committees that meet this standard: Dallas (Marion Barber and Felix Jones), Jacksonville (Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor), the Jets (Thomas Jones and 2007 team MVP Leon Washington), the Giants (Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw), New Orleans (Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister), Pittsburgh (Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall), Oakland (Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and, on the goal line, Michael Bush), Tennessee (LenDale White and Chris Johnson), Denver (Selvin Young, Andre Hall and, eventually, Ryan Torain), Carolina (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) and Miami (Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown).

In addition, I expect the Cardinals, the Texans and the Bengals to have committees out of necessity. While I'm bullish on the running ability and goal-line prospects of Cardinals rookie Tim Hightower, we haven't yet seen him pick up complicated blitzes, which teams don't even show in the preseason.

This would be a lot of committees by recent NFL standards. There's a very high probability that one running back will emerge for a handful of the teams listed above.

Teams have two choices with a stallion running back. Ride him hard, knowing you control him for his first four or five years, or extend his career by finding a complementary runner. If you do the latter, though, you have to re-up him in free agency or see another team benefit from your sacrifice and care. It's arguably more cost-effective to churn through young, usually cheaper runners.

And churn you will. Give a rookie 300 carries for each of his first five years and you're at threshold number.

Only 66 guys who've lined up in the backfield throughout NFL history have 1,500 or more rushes. And if you chart the carries after 1,500 for all but a handful of those backs, you'll see severe performance declines.

Last year, Shaun Alexander (2,176 carries) was red flagged here early and often. He's out of the league now. Be very concerned a similar fate awaits Jamal Lewis (2,120) and Fred Taylor (2,285). But it's reasonable to believe that LaDainian Tomlinson (2,365 carries) is an all-time talent who will age gracefully like Emmitt Smith (4,409) and Curtis Martin (3,518).

Lewis, though, is, who -- Jerome Bettis (3,479 carries)? Bettis had 300 carries just one season after age 26 and averaged more than 3.8 yards just one year after that, too, (225 attempts).

Other high-mileage backs to avoid: Clinton Portis (1,710 carries), Ricky Williams (1,763), Thomas Jones (1,659) and Ahman Green (1,941).

These running back recommendations are for the full season.

Buy

Ryan Grant, Packers: I don't trust the Bills' or the Niners' attack, forcing downgrades of Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore. Both of these guys are now more highly valued than Grant, who parlayed a great second half into a $30-million contract that says he's the clear No. 1 back on a team with very good offensive line and a solid defense. The talented Packers will win games (and thus pile up rushing attempts) even if new QB Aaron Rodgers struggles.

Earnest Graham, Bucs: Like Grant, Graham seemed too good to be true last year. Jon Gruden famously likes to "pound that rock." Graham had touchdown rushes in six straight games last year, with more than 20 carries in four of those games and 23 catches during that stretch. Cadillac Williams is out until at least midseason, and Michael Bennett and Warrick Dunn are not serious options.

Hold

Larry Johnson, Chiefs: For all the talk about 400 carries in 2006, he's not a particularly high-mileage guy (just 1,050 career carries) despite his age (28, generally old for a running back). Alas, the Chiefs' offense is in total disarray, with major questions at offensive line and quarterback. Runners need their QB to keep the chains moving on third down so they can pile up attempts, yards and cheap scores.

Sell

Clinton Portis, Redskins: Underline it and put it in boldface. Portis looked like he lost a step last year and has chronic shoulder problems. The Skins are not taking well to the new West Coast offense head coach Jim Zorn imported from Seattle.

---

By Michael Salfino

The first half of the third preseason game is the closest thing we'll get to a 2008 dress rehearsal. So let's review what we saw this weekend from the NFL balcony, focusing on players auditioning for more prominent offensive roles.

Peyton Manning's status is a big meatball hanging out there for those drafting this week. The Colts only say that there's a "good chance" Manning (knee) will be ready for the opener, though they are more concerned about "the big picture" (i.e., Manning's long-term health). Since Manning hasn't practiced yet all summer, err on the side of caution and assume he's going to miss two games.

Carson Palmer was literally bloodied and the Bengals offense looked anemic again versus the Saints, not exactly the Steel Curtain. Downgrade all Bengals. Things haven't been right with this offense since early in 2007. Note that RB Chris Perry again looked like a stiff in his bid to seize the RB reigns.

Matt Leinart, three picks, looked like he never took an NFL snap on Saturday night versus the Raiders. This is very troubling when you're in your third season. Significantly upgrade Kurt Warner (21 TDs the last eight games of '07), who the Cardinals announced as the Week 1 starter. Warner at QB means more red-zone trips for the Cardinals. So Tim Hightower is a guy I'd like as my No. 4 back, given he'll get the cheapies. Edgerrin James is ready for the glue factory and Hightower definitely looks like a feature back with the ball in his hands. But consider Warner's fragility and James' proven ability to pick up the blitz; then James keeping his starting job makes some sense.

J.T. O'Sullivan was predictably named the Week 1 starter for the Niners. But we still wouldn't take him as anything more than our third QB. Frank Gore is slightly more attractive now. But Randy Moss remains the better option in the middle of the first round. You need a guaranteed playmaker and championship cog with that premium of a pick.

Kevin Jones (Bears) is a talented guy who looked healthy this weekend and thus is likely to push rookie Matt Forte for carries. The only way to return value in the Bears offense given their uncertainty at QB is to get the vast majority of attempts. Forte thus gets a downgrade to No. 3 fantasy back, Jones becomes a reasonable No. 4.

Patrick Crayton scored again, but be careful here because he's the Cowboys' clear third receiving option (behind Terrell Owens and Jason Witten) in the red zone, where the Cowboys prefer to run with Marion Barber.

Aaron Rodgers bounced back, shining with the Packers' starting unit at Denver. He showed good mobility on a bootleg pass on the first snap and then coolly found Donald Driver out of the shotgun for a red zone TD. The QB sneak for a score could be a harbinger, as the Packers lack a strong goal-line runner.

Ryan Grant (hamstring) didn't suit up again for the Packers and is sliding down draft boards, now going about 14th on average. Owners must be worried he's a half-year wonder like Gary Brown years ago with the then Houston Oilers. The Packers have a very good line and defense, thus providing a nice environment for a back. I can't see taking Larry Johnson ahead of Grant, given the Chiefs offensive struggles and Johnson's questionable health.

Don't draft Denver's Selvin Young thinking he's going to be your starter. This situation is very fluid. Goal-line carries are in question. Andre Hall looked spry on a few runs with the first unit. And the Broncos noted Ryan Torain's first-round ability when they drafted him. Torrain (elbow) should be back by midseason at the latest and remains the keeper-league play.

Detroit rookie Kevin Smith impressed again with a scintillating sideline-to-sideline run -- breaking tackles, cutting against the grain and then outrunning the defense before going airborne to find paydirt. Tatum Bell again did nothing: 4 carries, 9 yards.

Remember, the Panthers clearly don't think DeAngelo Williams can be "the guy," given how they drafted Jonathan Stewart 13th overall. We don't yet know how they feel about Stewart, who showed an extra gear on his long TD run versus the Redskins.

Fred Taylor (Jaguars) just keeps on charging -- breaking tackles and making guys miss in the hole. He's not worth starting, but he prevents Maurice Jones-Drew from getting the week-to-week touches you need from even a No. 2 fantasy RB.

Robert Meachem used his size to grab a badly underthrown Drew Brees bomb. More importantly, that came in the first quarter with the Saints' first unit.

Rashard Mendenhall had a bad first-quarter fumble, meaning it was not especially forced. He did most of his damage against the Vikings backups with the Steelers second unit. But he did continue to show good feet, balance and a running compass stuck on north-south -- the way they've always liked it in Pittsburgh.

---

By David Ferris

Keep barking during those dog days of August; while your fantasy rivals are distracted with football and school and who knows what else, you'll find less competition as you move players back and forth. For a smart owner it's the easiest time of the year to make up ground; just be sure to stay the course.

Batters

BUY

Alexei Ramirez, 2B, White Sox: He'll swing at anything, we know that, but his average has stayed afloat during his second and third cycles through the league, and exciting things happen when he makes contact (14 homers, .490 slugging). It's a bit puzzling why the White Sox haven't reeled him in on the bases (9 steals in 17 attempts), but so long as you're not taxed on the failed attempts, don't sweat it. Somehow Ramirez has kept the league adjustment at bay here, and while that doesn't make him the next Alfonso Soriano, it at least buys fantasy cred from this space for the balance of 2008. Ramirez also offers shortstop and outfield eligibility in many leagues.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians: Don't laugh, he's actually been pretty solid since he returned to the club last month (.239, three homers, 10 RBIs). He's not as dynamic as last fall suggested, and not the stiff we saw earlier in the year. In an AL-only group, you could do a lot worse.

SELL

Jose Guillen, OF, Royals: He's been in a fog for pretty much the entire second half, and this isn't a finishing-kick type of player; Guillen's worst month, historically, has always been September. I'm not confident we'll going to see him turn it around.

HOLD

Alexi Casilla, 2B, Twins: The thumb healed up quickly and the Twins will give him his second-base post back immediately as they battle for a playoff spot. A .300 average, 20 runs and five to seven steals out the door are fair targets for Casilla.

Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles: There's no logical explanation for the mad second-half run he's on (.411 average, 10 homers, 47 RBIs); just sit back and enjoy the ride. His playmates in the Baltimore order are better than you think; only the Rangers, the White Sox and the Red Sox have scored more runs in the American League.

Pitchers

BUY

Dana Eveland, SP, Athletics: He's been forced back into the rotation with the injuries to Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, but let's not dismiss the guy out of hand. Eveland was a fantasy find in the first half (seven wins, 3.49 ERA), and his demotion to the minors was time well spent (21 strikeouts, four walks over three starts). A tightened delivery and a boost of confidence can go a long way for Eveland the next five weeks; make the plunge in AL-only groups, and consider him as a mixed-league play.

Jim Johnson, RP, Orioles: He's the temporary closer with George Sherrill hitting the DL, and while Johnson doesn't have the ideal peripherals for the job (36 strikeouts, 27 walks), he does keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and he's been successful in the eighth inning all year (2.33 ERA). Like any closer, he should be owned in all mixed leagues.

SELL

Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners: He had another setback with the shoulder this week, and the Mariner ship has been headed toward an iceberg all season. There's little incentive for him to rush a comeback and pitch again in 2008, it's cut-bait time.

HOLD

Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: His unreal success over the last two months (0.41 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) is unsustainable, sure, that's the easy stance. Here's the better question: To what level will Ziegler fall? Given his monstrous ground-ball rate and roomy home park, I'll keep riding with Ziggy the remainder of the way, especially now that he's heading the closing committee in a very deep Oakland bullpen.

---

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Aug. 25 to 31, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays: He's been a pleasant surprise for the Jays since his recall from Syracuse on June 20, posting team-leading numbers in batting (.329), home runs (9) and RBIs (35) over that span. He's on the road this week against the Yankees and the Rays, teams against which he's hit .300 to date.

Gil Meche, SP, Royals: A fantasy ace flying under the radar, he's posted a 2.29 ERA and a 3-0 record over the past month. This August, opponents are batting .189 against him, proof that he has been nearly unhittable recently. His two starts this week come against the Rangers and the Tigers, offenses that have shown inconsistencies this month.

Bench 'em

Frank Thomas, OF, Athletics: The "Big Hurt" has been doing nothing but hurting his owners' batting average and power numbers since returning from the DL, evident by his post-injury .176 batting average and single home run. It took him about a month and a half to get going to start the season, so a power surge looks to still be a few weeks off. He may be a name to target come September, but leave him on your bench or the wire for now.

Jon Garland, SP, Angels: He's been his vintage self this season, eating innings and doing just enough to pick up victories for the best team in baseball. He is an absolute must-bench this week facing in his lone start the A's, a team that has made him look like a charity case this season (1-3 record, 7.48 ERA).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Mike Cameron, OF, Brewers: The Brewers are getting a lift from their center fielder during their current hot streak, as he's filled up the stat sheet during the past month (.278 average, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 4 SB), much to fantasy owners' delight. He's on the road all week, where he's hit .284 this season with 16 long balls, making him a good spot start for the upcoming scoring period.

Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets: Coming off his first career complete game, he's been solid over the past month, with a 4-2 record and a 3.99 ERA. If you dig a little deeper, you'll see he's 10-2 since June, and has been dominant at times. He gets two starts this week, against the Astros and the Marlins, teams either missing or with banged-up offensive stars.

Bench 'em

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: The .287 average since a return from the DL isn't bad, but zero homers and only seven runs batted are pathetic. The lineup he plays in doesn't help matters, but it's obvious the power hasn't returned yet, making him a huge question mark going forward. He's still a nice long-term option, but will need to find his power before being counted on again this season in mixed formats.

Chris Volstad, SP, Marlins: I really like this kid going forward, but I don't like his matchup this week against the Braves, who have beaten him once already this season. The biggest issue for him will be getting his walks under control; the 4.23 BB/9 is pretty ugly. And teams are now seeing him for a second time. Be cautious deploying Volstad the rest of the way.

---

By David Ferris

Do not go gentle into that good fantasy night -- there's still five weeks of play to influence your standing. Your opponents may not have the stamina for the full season, but we don't let up until the finish line hits.

Pitchers

BUY

Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins: He's far ahead of the curve just 12 months off Tommy John surgery, in part due to the way he rehabbed - Johnson dropped 30 pounds during his time off. The Marlins have the makings of a dynamic staff if they can keep everyone healthy and happy; Johnson, Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez all have top-line stuff (Nolasco was dynamic at San Francisco this week), and Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller project as middle-of-the-rotation guys at minimum. The roomy park in South Florida doesn't hurt the cause, either.

SELL

Jason Isringhausen, RP, Cardinals: He's done for the year with a torn tendon in his elbow, and it's not clear if Isringhausen is willing, in his late 30s, to go through rehab and return next year. The Cardinals have moved on, with Chris Perry grabbing the closer job and Adam Wainwright returning to the rotation this weekend. Isringhausen never seemed to completely cash in on the potential we saw a decade and a half ago, but 293 career saves isn't too shabby.

HOLD

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: The team isn't babying his pitch counts and the home cooking has been good to him (five super turns in a row), so let's stop worrying here and just let the kid do his thing. Keep Kershaw away from road starts in Arizona and Colorado, but you'll want to use him everywhere else.

Jon Rauch, RP, Diamondbacks: Possession is nine-tenths of the law in fantasy bullpens, but Rauch is closing fast on Brandon Lyon in Arizona, and the Snakes can't wait forever if Lyon continues to struggle in the ninth inning. Bob Melvin isn't ready to make a change today, but Lyon's next blown opportunity could be his last. If we were redrafting today, we'd snag Rauch over Lyon without hesitation; even if he's not the full closer, he's a saver play in every other category.

Batters

BUY

Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies: His bat has perked up the last couple of weeks, and he's basically stealing at every opportunity (20 bags the second half). Taveras is a far better fantasy play than he is a real-life option, but in our stat grab, why worry about it? Go get the numbers.

SELL

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: He's been productive when he's played of late, but a sore thumb and the presence of Ray Durham certainly limit the upside. Weeks put up three runs and a steal in Wednesday's game, stats you can peddle before the next issue comes up here.

Casey Kotchman, 1B, Braves: His swing has been all over the place since the trade; perhaps he's trying too hard to win over the Atlanta fans, still stung by the Mark Teixeira exit. Kotchman won't play this weekend because of a sick relative, and you might want to rest him next week as he rebuilds his swing and confidence.

Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers: The rib injury isn't going away, and it's likely to affect his power and willingness to run down the stretch. A healthy Braun is one of the Top 5 players in the National League, but he probably won't be back at full throttle until 2009.

HOLD

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: He's in the middle of a washout August, but there were six months of strong production prior to that (including 2006); so let's trust the depth of the data, not the short run. He's still a $20 guy, given his power and legs.

---

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/ receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

* = check player status

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. *Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Carson Palmer, Bengals
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. *Derek Anderson, Browns
NOTE: Concussion, sits this week.
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
9. Jay Cutler, Broncos
NOTE: Everything there for a breakout.
10. David Garrard, Jaguars
11. Brett Favre, Jets
12. Eli Manning, Giants
13. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
14. Matt Schaub, Texans
NOTE: Andre Johnson needs to stay healthy.
15. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
16. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
17. Marc Bulger, Rams
NOTE: Good luck with that line.
18. Jon Kitna, Lions
19. Philip Rivers, Chargers
20. Vince Young, Titans
21. Jason Campbell, Redskins
22. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
23. *Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
24. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
25. Trent Edwards, Bills
26. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
27. J.T. O'Sullivan, 49ers
NOTE: Knows the offense, anyway.
28. Matt Ryan, Falcons
29. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
30. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
31. Kyle Orton, Bears
32. Troy Smith, Ravens
33. Alex Smith, 49ers
34. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
35. Sage Rosenfels, Texans
36. Brady Quinn, Browns
37. Chris Redman, Falcons
38. Kyle Boller, Ravens
39. Damon Huard, Chiefs
40. Josh McCown, Dolphins
41. Rex Grossman, Bears
42. Joe Flacco, Ravens
43. Kellen Clemens, Jets

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Steven Jackson, Rams
NOTE: Signed, sealed, delivered.
4. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
5. Joseph Addai, Colts
6. Clinton Portis, Redskins
7. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
NOTE: Buffalo runs in all situations.
8. Marion Barber, Cowboys
9. Frank Gore, 49ers
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
13. Jamal Lewis, Browns
NOTE: Set-up carries him.
14. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
15. Michael Turner, Falcons
16. Thomas Jones, Jets
17. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
18. Reggie Bush, Saints
19. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
20. Willie Parker, Steelers
21. *Willis McGahee, Ravens
NOTE: Injury, plus Rice looming.
22. Darren McFadden, Raiders
23. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
24. LenDale White, Titans
25. Selvin Young, Broncos
26. Matt Forte, Bears
NOTE: All-down back, but will he see holes?
27. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
28. Kevin Smith, Lions
29. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
NOTE: Super camp.
30. *Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
NOTE: Reds flags everywhere.
31. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
32. Ray Rice, Ravens
33. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
NOTE: A star eventually, just a matter of when.
34. Julius Jones, Seahawks
35. Chris Johnson, Titans
NOTE: Super-fast, but Jerious Norwood principle applies.
36. Chester Taylor, Vikings
37. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
38. Justin Fargas, Raiders
39. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
NOTE: Taking on water.
40. Felix Jones, Cowboys
41. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
42. Ahman Green, Texans
43. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
44. Chris Perry, Bengals
NOTE: Might open year as starter
45. Pierre Thomas, Saints
46. Leon Washington, Jets
47. Sammy Morris, Patriots
48. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
49. Lorenzo Booker, Eagles
50. Steve Slaton, Texans
51. Fred Jackson, Bills
52. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
NOTE: Red-zone specialist.
53. Ladell Betts, Redskins
54. Brandon Jackson, Packers
55. Andre Hall, Broncos
56. Tatum Bell, Lions
57. Kenny Watson, Bengals
58. Derrick Ward, Giants
59. Michael Pittman, Broncos
60. Kevin Jones, Bears
61. Michael Bush, Raiders
62. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
63. Deuce McAllister, Saints
64. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
65. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
66. Brian Leonard, Rams
67. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
68. Adrian Peterson, Bears
69. Mike Hart, Colts
70. Jason Wright, Browns
71. Jacob Hester, Chargers
72. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
73. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
74. Chris Brown, Texans
75. Chris Henry, Titans
76. Ron Dayne, Texans
77. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
78. Jerome Harrison, Browns
79. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
80. Jesse Chatman, Jets
81. *Ryan Torain, Broncos

Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
3. Reggie Wayne, Colts
4. *Braylon Edwards, Browns
NOTE: Keep your shoes on, son.
5. Andre Johnson, Texans
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
7. Marques Colston, Saints
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
9. *Plaxico Burress, Giants
10. Torry Holt, Rams
11. *Chad Johnson, Bengals
NOTE: Shoulder a legitimate concern.
12. *Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
NOTE: Not happy in the desert.
13. *Steve Smith, Panthers
14. Wes Welker, Patriots
15. *Brandon Marshall, Broncos
NOTE: Even with 2-game holiday, go get him.
16. Roy Williams, Lions
17. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
18. Calvin Johnson, Lions
NOTE: Visible blowup camp, now trendy.
19. Greg Jennings, Packers
20. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
21. Roddy White, Falcons
22. Lee Evans, Bills
NOTE: Can Edwards make the deep throws?
23. Hines Ward, Steelers
24. Marvin Harrison, Colts
25. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
26. Donald Driver, Packers
27. Laveranues Coles, Jets
28. Chris Chambers, Chargers
29. Santana Moss, Redskins
30. Nate Burleson, Seahawks
NOTE: Needed with Engram out.
31. Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
NOTE: Major downside here.
32. *Reggie Brown, Eagles
33. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
34. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
35. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
36. Ronald Curry, Raiders
NOTE: You can get him much later.
37. Reggie Williams, Jaguars
38. D.J. Hackett, Panthers
39. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
40. Sidney Rice, Vikings
41. Justin Gage, Titans
42. Isaac Bruce, 49ers
43. Kevin Walter, Texans
NOTE: Wes Welker 2.0.
44. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
NOTE: Chance to step up with Curtis out.
45. Jerry Porter, Jaguars
46. Drew Bennett, Rams
47. Derrick Mason, Ravens
48. Robert Meachem, Saints
49. Donte' Stallworth, Browns
50. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
51. *Javon Walker, Raiders
52. *Bryant Johnson, 49ers
53. Devin Hester, Bears
54. Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
55. Eddie Royal, Broncos
56. Marty Booker, Bears
57. *Chris Henry, Bengals
NOTE: Not eligible until Week 5.
58. Josh Morgan, 49ers
NOTE: Deep sleeper, outstanding camp.
59. Derek Hagan, Dolphins
60. Darrell Jackson, Broncos
61. Mark Clayton, Ravens
62. Demetrius Williams, Ravens
63. Amani Toomer, Giants
64. Brandon Stokley, Broncos
65. *Laurent Robinson, Falcons
NOTE: He's taken a step back.
66. *Bobby Engram, Seahawks
67. Ernest Wilford, Dolphins
68. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
69. Matt Jones, Jaguars
NOTE: Might get another chance.
70. Brandon Lloyd, Bears
71. David Patten, Saints
72. Drew Carter, Raiders
73. James Hardy, Bills
74. *Deion Branch, Seahawks
75. Ike Hilliard, Buccaneers
76. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
77. Greg Lewis, Eagles
78. Chad Jackson, Patriots
79. Mark Bradley, Bears
80. *Kevin Curtis, Eagles
NOTE: Hernia surgery, could miss 4-8 weeks.
81. Courtney Taylor, Seahawks
82. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
83. Bobby Wade, Vikings
84. Roydell Williams, Titans
85. Early Doucet, Cardinals
86. Hank Baskett, Eagles

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, Cowboys
2. Kellen Winslow, Browns
3. *Antonio Gates, Chargers
4. Dallas Clark, Colts
NOTE: He's really a WR in their scheme.
5. Chris Cooley, Redskins
6. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
7. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
8. Heath Miller, Steelers
9. Owen Daniels, Texans
10. Vernon Davis, 49ers
11. Tony Scheffler, Broncos
12. Todd Heap, Ravens
NOTE: Injury tag stuck on him for good.
13. Alge Crumpler, Titans
14. Donald Lee, Packers
15. Zach Miller, Raiders
NOTE: Great late-round sleeper.
16. L.J. Smith, Eagles
17. Greg Olsen, Bears
18. Ben Watson, Patriots
19. Dustin Keller, Jets
20. Kevin Boss, Giants
21. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
22. Ben Utecht, Bengals
NOTE: Could see early catches while others rehab.
23. Randy McMichael, Rams
24. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
25. Desmond Clark, Bears
26. Alex Smith, Buccaneers
27. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
28. Jeff King, Panthers
29. David Martin, Dolphins
30. John Carlson, Seahawks
31. Chris Baker, Jets
32. Daniel Graham, Broncos
33. Robert Royal, Bills
34. Bo Scaife, Titans

Kicker
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys
NOTE: Let someone else go here first.
2. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
5. Mason Crosby, Packers
6. Rob Bironas, Titans
7. Shayne Graham, Bengals
8. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
9. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
NOTE: All the peripheral kickbacks in place.
10. Josh Brown, Rams
11. David Akers, Eagles
12. Kris Brown, Texans
13. Phil Dawson, Browns
14. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
15. Mike Nugent, Jets
16. Jeff Reed, Steelers
17. Brandon Coutu, Seahawks
18. Shaun Suisham, Redskins
19. Jason Hanson, Lions
20. Rian Lindell, Bills
21. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
22. Matt Stover, Ravens
23. John Kasay, Panthers
24. Matt Prater, Broncos
25. Robbie Gould, Bears
NOTE: Don't like the offense he's tied to.
26. Jason Elam, Falcons
27. Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
28. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
29. Joe Nedney, 49ers
30. Martin Gramatica, Saints
31. Billy Cundiff, Chiefs
32. Dan Carpenter, Dolphins

Defense
1. Vikings
2. Chargers
3. Cowboys
4. Patriots
5. Giants
6. Jaguars
NOTE: Lethal for the home dates.
7. Bears
8. Seahawks
NOTE: They really tee off at Qwest.
9. Packers
10. Steelers
11. Buccaneers
12. Ravens
13. Eagles
14. Redskins
NOTE: Taylor gives them some juice.
15. Titans
16. Bills
NOTE: Slot them higher if you get the returns.
17. Texans
18. Colts
19. Raiders
20. Broncos
21. Panthers
22. Cardinals
23. Jets
24. Falcons
25. 49ers
26. Browns
27. Bengals
28. Rams
29. Chiefs
30. Lions
31. Saints
32. Dolphins

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By Mark P. Stopa

As much as I love the NFL, I really hate preseason football. It's kind of like being in high school and being friends with a really attractive cheerleader who won't date you. You want more - you just can't have it. Fortunately, now that the third preseason game is upon us, more is coming -- and soon.

To help place recommendations in a context most useful to fantasy leaguers, I'm noting each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, based on results from hundreds of live drafts and courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" during the preseason mean I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals (ADP: 150): I upgraded Kurt Warner (ADP: 194) just two weeks ago. And I still think Warner is being drafted too low. But as the 21st QB off of the board, so is Leinart. Playing in a bad division, with their home games in the desert (weather thus never a factor) and with Fitz and Boldin at WR, one of the Cardinals' QBs is going to be starter-worthy. Which one? Leinart is playing well enough that you cannot automatically assume he will spit the bit and get benched. At this point, considering both can be had so cheaply, I'm fine with drafting both Leinart and Warner and playing whoever is starting.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens (ADP: 110): I know that Jim Harbaugh told reporters that Willis McGahee (ADP: 21) is still the starter. But the fact that he even had to answer that question speaks volumes about Rice. While the rookie from Rutgers is still second on the depth chart, I'd much prefer getting Rice around pick 100 than McGahee at pick 21, his current ADP. (My colleague, Mike Salfino, agreed in this week's Scouting Notebook.)

Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos (ADP: 198): At this time last year, Brandon Marshall impressed Broncos coaches during camp, but as a young, no-name WR opposite an established star (Javon Walker), Marshall was little more than a late-round flier in fantasy drafts. Marshall soon became fantasy gold. This year, Walker is gone, Marshall has been suspended three games and Royal is the young WR impressing Broncos coaches. I'm not saying that Royal will post the stats that Marshall put up last year, but he's definitely worth drafting at least a round or two before his ADP.

Brandon Coutu, K, Seahawks (ADP: undrafted): I really hate discussing kickers, because they, along with team defense, should always be drafted with your last two picks. My purpose in mentioning Couto is not to suggest that you stray from that strategy. Rather, it's to remind you that no-name kickers come out of nowhere every year and become top-5 fantasy kickers. Hence, even though I think that Couto is this year's Nick Folk/Mason Crosby, do not reach for him. Most of your league-mates have not heard of him anyway.

No Change

95% of NFL players: Do not overemphasize preseason stats. Injuries that may linger into the regular season, role changes or changes in the depth chart are far more important than who scored a TD in the fourth quarter against a third-string defense.

Kyle Orton, QB, Bears (ADP: undrafted): I know Orton was just announced as the Bears' starting QB. But if he is not the worst QB in the NFL, he's certainly in the running. Do not pin any fantasy hopes on this retread, no matter how cheaply you get him.

Downgrades

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (ADP: 20): Maroney does not like being called "injury-prone," but that's what he is. Bill Belichick realizes it, which is why the Patriots signed LaMont Jordan. With Sammy Morris also in the fold, Maroney is not certain enough to get the carries week-to-week to justify being taken 20th overall.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets (ADP: 44): At 30 years old, and coming off a season with 3.6 yards per carry and just two TDs, the end is near. Plus, the Jets really like Leon Washington, who has far more burst than Jones. You can do better with your fourth-round pick.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals (ADP: 58): Speaking of "the end is near," Johnson's preseason hamstring injury troubles me, as he struggled mightily with hamstring injuries last year. At this point, I think it's 50/50 that Kenny Watson (ADP: 115) and/or Chris Perry (ADP: 174) outperform Johnson this year.

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By Michael Salfino

Every winter, I mine the Bill James Handbook for columns and wish the great information it contains was available during the regular season. Now, it is, via his web site, BillJamesOnline.com. The data there is provided by Baseball Info Solutions, which assists us here throughout the season.

So let's use James' site, which costs just $3 per month for full access, to help quantify baserunning and defense - always a source of statistical controversy. We'll also look at one of the interesting team stats James tracks - the number of starts by the five starters who broke camp back in March - and see for ourselves how that correlates to winning.

The best baserunners by James' definition aren't the ones who are necessarily the fastest or who steal the most bases. Instead, they are the ones who avoid double plays and take the extra base without being thrown out, whether by stealing or just being smartly aggressive advancing on hits.

In 2007, the Mets' Jose Reyes led the majors with 63 bases gained. This year, the league leader is Colorado's Wily Taveras, plus-56. Following him are Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners, plus-52), Ian Kinsler (Rangers, plus-41, but possibly out for the year with a hernia), Grady Sizemore (Indians, plus-41), Randy Winn (Giants, plus-37) and Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox, plus-36). Reyes is now at plus-25 for the year, mostly because he's on pace for about 20 fewer steals.

Let's focus on the two defensive positions that get the most action - shortstop and centerfield. James looks at a player's plus/minus number, which is how many plays they have netted relative to those an average fielder at his position would make. There's no formula involved here; instead, each play is reviewed by the Baseball Information Solutions video scouts.

The Braves' Yunel Escobar leads the shortstops at plus-27, followed by J.J. Hardy (Brewers, plus-16), Jack Wilson (Pirates, plus-13), Mike Aviles (Royals, plus-11), Omar Vizquel (Giants, plus-10) and Jimmy Rollins (Phillies, plus-9).

Gold Glover Derek Jeter is minus-7, a big improvement over last year (minus-34). But he still struggles moving to his right (minus-15 on balls that direction this year).

In center, we have an ex-Met and present Met at the top of the leader board. Carlos Gomez, traded to the Twins as part of the Johan Santana booty, is plus-26. Carlos Beltran is plus-20. After him are Diamondback Chris Young (plus-15), Marlin Cody Ross and Padre Jody Gerut (plus-11, obviously recovered from his near catastrophic knee injury).

The AL teams with the most starts from the five pitchers who broke camp are the White Sox (120), the Blue Jays (112), the Red Sox (108), the Mariners (107), the Angels (104), the Rays (103) and the Twins (100). The five teams either leading their division or most seriously contending for the wild card are all represented here. The Yankees? They're second worst (to the Rangers) with 82.

In the NL, the teams with the most staff continuity are the Phillies (117), the Mets (113), the Reds (109), the Brewers (104) and the Cubs (103). Four of those five are in the heat of the pennant race. But the contending (sort of) Dodgers are at just 73, second-worst to the Braves (a devastatingly low 68).

Let's use these stats as a starting point for our player recommendations this week.

Buy

Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays: He's the best starter in the AL because of his own supreme ability, combined with the very underrated Toronto defense, which leads all of baseball with plus-57 plays that an average defensive team wouldn't have made. Halladay has pitched an old-school 17 percent of his team's innings, meaning the expectation is that about 10 of these plays have been to his benefit.

Joel Pineiro, P, Cardinals: St. Louis is the Toronto of the NL, at plus-55 in team defense. Pineiro is still being vexed by the long ball (17 for the year and four in his last three starts), but has strung a nice month together and should be expected to perform as well going forward as the more sought-after Kyle Lohse, as they have similar stuff.

Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: More proof that there are numerous players toiling in obscurity in the minors who can be quality big leaguers. Aviles was viewed as a decent hitter who couldn't defend well enough. But look at those 2008 results in a partial season (plus-11 already).

Hold

Jose Reyes, SS, Mets: Still a plus-baserunner and a much better hitter than last year. For example, he leads the majors in two-hit games with 40.

Sell

Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox: "Numbing and tingling in [Beckett's] right arm" does not bode well for the Sox' pennant push. They say he slept on it wrong. But after giving up eight runs in two-plus innings on Saturday, his next start is being pushed back at least until Tuesday. The alarm bells should be ringing in Boston.

---

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 8/19
Next Update: 8/26

First Base
1. Mark Teixeira, Angels
2. Lance Berkman, Astros
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NOTE: Adjusting to the AL.
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
7. Justin Morneau, Twins
8. David Ortiz, Red Sox
9. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
10. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
11. Carlos Pena, Rays
NOTE: Crippling mistakes all month.
12. Derrek Lee, Cubs
13. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
14. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
15. Carlos Delgado, Mets
16. James Loney, Dodgers
NOTE: A very bright future ahead of him.
17. Jason Giambi, Yankees
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
21. Jim Thome, White Sox
22. Casey Kotchman, Braves
23. Kevin Millar, Orioles
24. *Travis Hafner, Indians
25. Paul Konerko, White Sox

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Brandon Phillips, Reds
4. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
5. Howie Kendrick, Angels
6. Dan Uggla, Marlins
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Placido Polanco, Tigers
9. *Rickie Weeks, Brewers
10. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
11. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
NOTE: Handy, underrated part of their success.
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
14. Jose Lopez, Mariners
15. Mark Ellis, Athletics
16. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
NOTE: Lack of plate discipline will catch up.
17. Willie Harris, Nationals
18. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
19. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
20. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
21. Nick Punto, Twins
22. Ray Durham, Brewers
23. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
24. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
25. *Luis Castillo, Mets
26. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
27. Clint Barmes, Rockies
28. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
29. Jeff Baker, Rockies
30. Augie Ojeda, Diamondbacks
31. Brendan Harris, Twins
32. Eugenio Velez, Giants
33. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Derek Jeter, Yankees
5. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
NOTE: Unheralded part of their lineup flow.
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Michael Young, Rangers
8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
9. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. *Cristian Guzman, Nationals
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Yunel Escobar, Braves
15. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
16. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
19. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
20. Erick Aybar, Angels
21. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
22. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
23. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
24. Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: Injuries ruined a fun season.
25. Jack Wilson, Pirates
26. David Eckstein, Blue Jays

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. *Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. *Garrett Atkins, Rockies
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Chipper Jones, Braves
7. Melvin Mora, Orioles
NOTE: A monster since the break.
8. Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Qualifies all over the yard.
9. Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
11. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
12. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
13. Chris Davis, Rangers
14. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
NOTE: Still gets himself out too much.
16. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
17. Ian Stewart, Rockies
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
19. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
20. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
21. *Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: Check back in two weeks.
22. Ryan Garko, Indians
23. Willy Aybar, Rays
24. Alex Gordon, Royals
25. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
26. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
27. Josh Fields, White Sox
28. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
29. *Joe Crede, White Sox
30. *Hank Blalock, Rangers

Outfield
1. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
NOTE: Will have a say in MVP race.
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
4. Matt Holliday, Rockies
5. Grady Sizemore, Indians
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
7. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
8. Nick Markakis, Orioles
9. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
10. Jason Bay, Red Sox
NOTE: Vanilla, but the numbers aren't.
11. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
12. Nate McLouth, Pirates
13. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
14. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
15. Corey Hart, Brewers
16. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
17. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
18. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
19. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
20. Carlos Beltran, Mets
21. B.J. Upton, Rays
NOTE: Grow up, son.
22. Xavier Nady, Yankees
NOTE: Career year keeps rolling along.
23. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
24. Pat Burrell, Phillies
25. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
26. Shane Victorino, Phillies
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Hunter Pence, Astros
29. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
30. Jay Bruce, Reds
31. Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Runs whenever he's on base, period.
32. Torii Hunter, Angels
33. Johnny Damon, Yankees
34. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
35. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
36. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
37. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
38. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
39. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
40. *Jose Guillen, Royals
41. Nick Swisher, White Sox
42. Luke Scott, Orioles
NOTE: Seems to be over heel problem.
43. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
44. Randy Winn, Giants
45. Mike Cameron, Brewers
46. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
47. Aaron Rowand, Giants
48. Denard Span, Twins
49. Jason Kubel, Twins
50. Fred Lewis, Giants
51. David DeJesus, Royals
52. Garret Anderson, Angels
53. Josh Willingham, Marlins
54. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
55. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
56. Delmon Young, Twins
57. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
58. Chase Headley, Padres
NOTE: Plate discipline improved of late.
59. Ken Griffey, White Sox
60. Jack Cust, Athletics
61. Juan Rivera, Angels
62. Austin Kearns, Nationals
63. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
64. Ben Francisco, Indians
65. Reed Johnson, Cubs
NOTE: Pushing for more playing time.
66. Marcus Thames, Tigers
67. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
68. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
69. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
70. Matt Joyce, Tigers
71. Cody Ross, Marlins
72. Jody Gerut, Padres
73. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
74. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
75. *Michael Bourn, Astros
76. Brian Giles, Padres
77. Jayson Werth, Phillies
78. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
79. Gregor Blanco, Braves
80. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
81. Bill Hall, Brewers
82. Fernando Tatis, Mets
83. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
84. *Adam Jones, Orioles
85. Scott Hairston, Padres
86. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
87. *Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
88. Mark Teahen, Royals
NOTE: Second flat year in a row.
89. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
90. Endy Chavez, Mets
91. Ross Gload, Royals
92. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
93. Daniel Murphy, Mets
94. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
95. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
96. *David Murphy, Rangers
97. Steve Pearce, Pirates
98. Gary Matthews, Angels

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
4. Geovany Soto, Cubs
5. Joe Mauer, Twins
NOTE: Quietly, he's a stud again.
6. Bengie Molina, Giants
7. Dioner Navarro, Rays
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
11. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
12. *Victor Martinez, Indians
13. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
14. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
NOTE: Will be a Top-10 guy in 2009.
15. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
16. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jeff Clement, Mariners
NOTE: Sneaky sleeper for final six weeks.
19. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
20. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
21. John Buck, Royals
22. Brandon Inge, Tigers
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Mike Napoli, Angels
26. Chris Coste, Phillies
27. *Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
28. Jason Kendall, Brewers
29. Jeff Mathis, Angels
30. Miguel Olivo, Royals

---

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 8/19
Next Update: 8/26

Starting Pitchers
1. CC Sabathia, Brewers
NOTE: A nine-inning dominator in NL.
2. Johan Santana, Mets
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
8. Cliff Lee, Indians
9. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Keeps cheating the peripherals.
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
13. Rich Harden, Cubs
14. James Shields, Rays
15. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
16. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
17. Scott Kazmir, Rays
18. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
NOTE: Contenders missed the boat here.
19. John Lackey, Angels
20. Matt Cain, Giants
21. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
22. Francisco Liriano, Twins
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. Ervin Santana, Angels
25. John Danks, White Sox
NOTE: Breakout season is legit.
26. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
27. Edinson Volquez, Reds
28. Jon Lester, Red Sox
29. Joe Saunders, Angels
30. Ted Lilly, Cubs
31. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
32. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
33. Justin Verlander, Tigers
34. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
35. Roy Oswalt, Astros
36. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
37. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
NOTE: Durability questions crop up again.
38. Oliver Perez, Mets
39. Manny Parra, Brewers
40. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
41. Matt Garza, Rays
42. Paul Maholm, Pirates
43. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NOTE: Learning to crawl.
44. Jered Weaver, Angels
45. Scott Baker, Twins
46. Josh Johnson, Marlins
47. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
48. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
49. Gil Meche, Royals
50. Mike Mussina, Yankees
51. Kevin Slowey, Twins
52. Aaron Cook, Rockies
53. *Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
NOTE: Why risk him at this point?
54. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
55. Zack Greinke, Royals
56. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
57. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
58. John Maine, Mets
59. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
60. David Bush, Brewers
61. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
NOTE: Ground balls pave way to success.
62. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
63. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
64. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
65. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
66. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
67. Nick Blackburn, Twins
68. Jorge Campillo, Braves
69. *David Price, Rays
70. Pedro Martinez, Mets
71. Scott Olsen, Marlins
72. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
73. Glen Perkins, Twins
74. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
75. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
NOTE: He'll be on our spring sleeper list.
76. Chris Volstad, Marlins
77. Greg Maddux, Dodgers
NOTE: Better team, smaller park.
78. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
79. Fausto Carmona, Indians
80. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
81. Odalis Perez, Nationals
82. Edwin Jackson, Rays
83. Joe Blanton, Phillies
84. Jon Garland, Angels
85. Braden Looper, Cardinals
86. Jeff Francis, Rockies
87. Aaron Harang, Reds
NOTE: At this point write him off.
88. Tim Redding, Nationals
83. *Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
90. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
91. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
92. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
93. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
94. Johnny Cueto, Reds
95. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
96. Brian Moehler, Astros
97. Randy Wolf, Astros
98. Ian Snell, Pirates
99. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
100. David Purcey, Blue Jays
101. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
102. Luke Hochevar, Royals
103. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
NOTE: Sorry Seattle, he's still here.
104. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
105. *Tom Glavine, Braves
NOTE: Start working on that speech.

Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
NOTE: Much better year than K-Rod, honestly.
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
5. Brad Lidge, Phillies
6. Joakim Soria, Royals
7. Jose Valverde, Astros
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. Brian Wilson, Giants
10. Kerry Wood, Cubs
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
14. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
15. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
16. *Salomon Torres, Brewers
17. J.J. Putz, Mariners
18. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
19. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
20. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
21. *Billy Wagner, Mets
22. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
NOTE: A late-inning lead now and then would be nice.
23. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
NOTE: Ground balls pay the bills.
24. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
25. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
26 *Chris Perez, Cardinals
NOTE: Might keep gig even after Wainwright returns.
27. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
28. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
29. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
NOTE: By default, the last man standing.
30. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
31. Jim Johnson, Orioles
NOTE: Stand-in for Sherrill.
32. *Troy Percival, Rays
NOTE: Check back in two weeks.
33. Dan Wheeler, Rays
NOTE: Fill-in closer with Percival out.
34. *Matt Capps, Pirates
35. Aaron Heilman, Mets
36. John Grabow, Pirates
37. Grant Balfour, Rays
38. Joey Devine, Athletics
39. Heath Bell, Padres
40. Huston Street, Athletics
NOTE: Slowly rebounding, but team has gaggle of options.
41. Rafael Perez, Indians
42. Frank Francisco, Rangers
43. George Sherrill, Orioles
NOTE: Might return in final two weeks.
44. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
45. Jerry Blevins, Athletics
46. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
47. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
48. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
49. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
50. Luis Ayala, Mets
51. Tyler Yates, Pirates
52. Craig Hansen, Pirates
53. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
54. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
55. Chad Durbin, Phillies
56. Bob Howry, Cubs
57. Jose Arredondo, Angels
58. Doug Brocail, Astros
59. Eric Gagne, Brewers
60. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
61. Scot Shields, Angels
62. Saul Rivera, Nationals
63. Kyle Farnsworth, Tigers
NOTE: Gasoline act keeps him out of ninth.
64. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
65. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
66. Matt Thornton, White Sox
67. Mike Lincoln, Reds
68. J.P. Howell, Rays
69. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
70. Blaine Boyer, Braves
71. David Weathers, Reds
72. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
73. *Scott Downs, Blue Jays
74. Joe Nelson, Marlins
75. Damaso Marte, Yankees
76. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
77. *Scott Linebrink, White Sox
78. Alex Hinshaw, Giants

---

By Michael Salfino

Football is the ultimate team game, but no position is more dependant on external factors than wide receiver. It's not merely a matter of being able to beat his man and get open. He first needs the coach to call pass plays, for those plays to have his number and for the quarterback to find him.

Our challenge is to keep track of the coaching carousel and understand that changes there significantly alter ball distribution. Players also change teams, and wide receivers with new NFL addresses have chronically underachieved, Randy Moss and Wes Welker last year notwithstanding. And even if a receiver stays on the same team with the same coaches, the QB can retire or change cities (or both, in the case of Brett Favre).

Let's see how many receivers had at least 100 balls thrown to them last year (that's targets, not actual receptions), got at least one great chance per game to score (a target in the red zone) and are playing in the same environment as in 2007 (i.e., no coaching or QB changes).

The list is so small, we have to round up the red-zone targets. But the Patriots' Batman and Robin (Moss and Welker) stand out.

Moss was targeted (thrown to) nearly 10 times per game, on average, and had 33 targets in the red zone, which led the league. Welker is sliding through the cracks a little, as most figure he's more a complementary player. But only Saint Marques Colston had more chances in the red zone (27, to Welker's 26). Colston had 143 targets, 11th best in the league. Welker's 136 were 15th.

The huge caveat with Moss and Welker is that Tom Brady is going to throw closer to 30 TDs this year than last year's 50, considering how other record-breakers have regressed to the mean.

What about Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne, generally regarded as being in the same class as Moss?

Owens has trouble playing a full season and had only 16 red-zone targets in 15 games. That's a shame, because he might be the best red-zone receiver ever and certainly is in Moss's class there. But the Cowboys' desire to run increases the closer they get to the end zone.

Wayne, too, plays for a QB who prefers to spread the wealth near paydirt. His 23 red-zone targets were good, but not spectacular, especially when you consider that Marvin Harrison was out most of the season. This year, Indy's plan is for Harrison to be back, which would could cut further into Wayne's looks in those highly leveraged situations.

We'll make some more recommendations below. But here are the others on the list of receivers with at least 100 targets, at least one red-zone look (rounding up) per game and in the same system with the same guy throwing him the ball:

Charger Chris Chambers (129 targets, 13 red-zone targets, though many came with the Dolphins), Eagle Kevin Curtis (135, 16), Brown Braylon Edwards (152, 25), Seahawk Bobby Engram (broken shoulder, 134, 12), Cardinal Larry Fitzgerald (166, 16), Bengal T.J. Houshmandzadeh (170, 24), Bengal Chad Johnson (161, 20), Bronco Brandon Marshall (suspended three weeks, 170, 24), Panther Steve Smith (149, 15), Giant Amani Toomer (104, 21), Texan Kevin Walter (106, 12) and Steeler Hines Ward (113, 22). Stats courtesy of our friends at Rotowire.com

Buy

Kevin Curtis, Eagles: My reports from Philly say the Eagles are going to be a 60-percent pass team again under Andy Reid. So Curtis is certain to continue to again see a high target load.

Kevin Walter, Texans: If the freakishly gifted Andre Johnson is healthy, Walter will operate under the radar of opposing secondaries and get more quality looks. If Johnson gets hurt again, there will be lots of quantity.

Hines Ward, Steelers: He posted those numbers in just 13 games while battling a knee problem. Santonio Holmes had just 85 targets all year, eight in the red zone.

Hold

Torry Holt, Rams: Maybe Al Saunders doesn't count as a new coordinator, since he coached Holt under Dick Vermeil. But that shows how old Holt is getting. And Marc Bulger's shoulder is barking already. On the other hand, Holt's a Hall of Fame talent.

Anthony Gonzalez, Colts: Marvin Harrison is going to be 36, and his knee injury seems chronic in nature. You know Manning will spread the wealth to whomever lines up opposite Wayne.

Sell

Anquan Boldin, Cardinals: His feud with his head coach has turned nasty, and he wants a one-way ticket out of town. Larry Fitzgerald is significantly better and bigger, but Boldin keeps getting more red-zone looks. That seems certain to change now.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos: If his suspension gets reduced, move him up. But three weeks is a lot. Fantasy players only have 12- or 13-week regular seasons. So be sure to discount him.

---

By Michael Salfino

Next week, we get a real regular-season dress rehearsal. Preseason Week 2 was marked by cameos from the skill players we'll rely on come September. Let's mine the weekend for all its worth, focusing also on second-tier players on path for elevated roles once the games count.

Successful fantasy owners typically have core principles when it comes to drafting. Two of mine are to always draft the second WR on a team with no clear-cut No. 1 guy and to avoid QBs whose only selling point is their talent out on the flanks. But Detroit's Calvin Johnson is so good that I can't knock anyone for reaching for him well before Roy Williams, or for counting on Jon Kitna as a cheap starter with upside with the caveat of quickly grabbing a second QB in case the Lions soon sink and Kitna gets benched. This weekend, Johnson used his great size to snatch a ball over a helpless Bengals defensive back along the sideline, and then blew by two others on a simple post-corner where he got wide open for a easy TD.

Carson Palmer was sloppy again this weekend and, coming off a 2007 when he did not play well, the idea that he's a great player and a great scorer needs to be revised. He's a good player on a team that suddenly has some question marks and lack of depth at wide receiver, even if Chad Johnson (shoulder) comes back as expected by Week 1.

Also in Cincy, Chris Perry did nothing to persuade me he could be a feature back if he manages to stay healthy. Rudi Johnson (hamstring) is about finished. The value play here is current third-stringer Kenny Watson, who ran twice as well as Johnson in 2007.

Thomas Jones saw only limited action with the first-team for the Jets, who did name Leon Washington the team MVP last year. Washington has a chance to be the poor man's Brian Westbrook, given his explosiveness and receiving skills. The way Jesse Chatman looked, don't be shocked if Jones is cut before the end of camp. Chatman is a better change-of-pace back; similar to former Charger Natrone Means, he has light feet and the power to finish runs. Also like Means, Chatman has struggled with his weight, but appears now to be in good shape.

Matt Leinart had the better of the play this weekend and will start preseason Week 3, a very good indicator he'll be the opening day starter, considering the mantra for Week 4 is "let's not get anyone hurt." Let others overpay for Leinart in your drafts. Instead, pocket Kurt Warner as a third QB late. Then hope Leinart again spits the bit and that the Cardinals, who can contend, turn to Warner (21 TD passes the last eight games).

Willis McGahee is being pushed by Rutgers rookie Ray Rice, but remains the starter. McGahee already had his troublesome knee scoped. I'd much rather have Rice as my fourth RB than McGahee as my second. Some sad sacks are even reaching for McGahee as their RB1.

Don't waste draft bait fishing for the Texans running back. This seems like a good investment every August. But in most leagues you'll have to cut whomever you bet on early, i.e., before he's had a chance to take the reins. Realize you will jettison, say, Chris Taylor, when he has 10 carries the first three weeks. Instead, save your free-agent money and consult with us here to get the early read on who the eventual Texans RB workhorse will be. Remember, too, there's a decent chance their guy is not yet on their roster. Last year, the Packers picked up Ryan Grant on waivers right before the season kicked off.

Robert Meachem quieted down after last week, good news for those who want to grab a cheap piece of the Saints' high-flying passing offense. Meachem will see scant attention with secondaries focusing on Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush, in that order. Expect Meachem to start the year as the third WR behind David Patten, but for the NO depth chart to correct in Meachem's favor well before Halloween.

J.T. O'Sullivan looks like the starter in San Francisco, good news for those wishing to draft Frank Gore. O'Sullivan will ease the transition to Mike Martz's offense, given he played in it when both were with Detroit last year. JTO threw a sloppy interception, but averaged 20 yards per completion. That's the kind of proficiency Martz wants from his passing game.

Broncos rookie Eddie Royal (second round) impressed Pac Man Jones this weekend and has cemented a starter job opposite Brandon Marshall (appealing his three-game suspension). He should be the first rookie receiver off the fantasy draft board given the quality of his QB (Jay Cutler) and the friendly Mike Shanahan system in which he'll operate.

Also, Andre Hall looks like the short-yardage (i.e., TD) back for the Broncos, as he replaced Selvin Young in the red zone on Denver's first two drives.

We'll have an injury report every week here during the regular season. But I must note here now that, according to the San Diego Tribune, Antonio Gates reported that he felt "close to normal" after running 20 routes before Saturday's game and added he thinks "more than ever that he'll be ready" for the season opener.

The Falcons' Michael Turner was untouched until the end of his two long runs. But Matt Ryan didn't seem to progress from Week 1, and that means a lot more for those investing in Turner and the Falcons offense.

---

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Aug. 18 to 24, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: Fewer hitters have been hotter than this Ranger over the past month, with a .402 average, four homers and 19 runs batted in. Playing in one of the more potent offenses and hitter's parks in all of baseball helps make a continuation of this surge more likely. He'll spend this scoring period at home, where he's batting .328 on the season. Pick him up if recent injuries have left a hole in your outfield.

Mark Buehrle, SP, White Sox: Lots to like here. Over the past month, four wins with a 4.07 ERA. He gets two starts at home this week, against the Mariners and the injury-plagued Rays, where he's posted a 7-3 record and a 2.72 ERA this season. He's a low-risk play with tons of upside this week.

Bench 'em

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: One of the more streaky corner-infield options in baseball, he's running cold again as of late, posting a .196 average in August with zero long balls. Nothing seems to be going right in Seattle this season, including its third baseman's batting average at home (.219). And that's where Beltre is playing four games against the A's this week. Injuries have thinned out the position recently, but this is a name to avoid while scouring your league waiver wire for a replacement.

Glen Perkins, SP, Twins: His 4.07 ERA and nine wins have been a pleasant surprise, but his 4.6 K/9 rate is pretty ugly, as is his 1.43 WHIP. He'll only be getting one start this week, against the tough Angels on the road, where he has posted a 4.60 ERA this season. Find a safer mixed-league play this week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jody Gerut, OF, Padres: After playing the role of reserve for the past few seasons, he's making the most of regular playing time in San Diego, belting five homers and driving in nine runs in August thus far. He'll be on the road this upcoming week, where he's hit nine of his 11 homers this season, along with a .302 batting average. He hit 22 home runs in his rookie season of 2003, so the power is legit.

John Maine, SP, Mets: He looked strong in his return from shoulder fatigue, pitching five innings and giving up zero earned runs en route to a victory over the Nats. He'll face an equally weak Pirates lineup on the road this week before returning home to face the Astros; he is 5-1 at Shea this season. If an owner got impatient and dropped him while he spent a few weeks on the DL, snatch him up and reap the benefits.

Bench 'em

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: He's been looking like the most recent Japanese bust as of late, as his batting average has dropped each month since the start of the season, and now sits at .135 thus far in August. Manager Lou Pinella has decided that its finally time to start looking at other options while his right fielder is in a funk, so expect a drop in his at-bats going forward. When right, he's a quality fantasy performer in multiple categories, but a rebound is necessary in order to trust him again.

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: His first start back from the DL was a disaster (18.00 ERA), possibly a sign he still isn't healthy. His lone start this week comes on the road against the Rockies, not the place or the team he wanted to face as he works his way back from injury. Cut ties with him now and hope for a rebound next season, when he'll be able to be grabbed cheaply.

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By David Ferris

Pitchers are the teasing sirens of fantasy baseball, so we'll start off our American League notebook with a stroll around the mound, looking to separate the contenders from the pretenders, the value plays from the temporary mirages.

BUY

Grant Balfour, RP, Rays: While it's possible Joe Maddon will go to a closer-by-committee while Troy Percival sits on the DL, the hard-chucking Balfour deserves a shot in the big chair. The Australian right-hander has posted video-game stats in 2008 (1.21 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 55 strikeouts in 37.1 innings), and he's converted four of the five save chances that have fallen to him.

SELL

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox: He's carrying some pretty surface stats (14-2 record, 2.74 ERA), but there are some dark clouds looming (a mediocre 103-72 strikeout to walk ratio, for one thing). If you hash out all the peripheral numbers, Matsuzaka's true ERA should be just over four; that's a geeky way of saying "trade him before the crash hits."

Jesse Litsch, SP, Blue Jays: He ducked and dodged his way through seven scoreless innings in Detroit on Thursday, but pitching to contact is always a dangerous way to make your living in the majors, especially when most of your starts come in the AL East. Package Litsch's sharp return and reasonable ERA to one of the less-sophisticated owners in your league, you can probably get something. That 4.57 K/9 ratio sticks out like a sore (BlackBerry) thumb, and the Yankees aren't an easy draw next week.

HOLD

Paul Byrd, SP, Red Sox: A lot of the Litsch argument will apply here, but Byrd has two advantages: he's been sharp as a tack the last month, and the Boston offense will put him in a good position for victories. If you stand fairly well with ERA and WHIP, Byrd isn't a bad rental as you chase a few wins.

Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: His scoreless-inning streak was a fluke, sure, but his insane ground-ball rate backs up his success, and it's near-impossible to get an extra-base hit off this guy. Ziegler will have to battle for save chances in Oakland - the A's have quietly assembled a very deep bullpen - but even in mixed leagues, he's worth holding onto (and rooting on) for the balance of 2008.

Hitters

BUY

Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: He's been ballistic on the road trip (14-for-27), and the offensive numbers flow even easier in Arlington. The Rangers had a lineup spot there for the taking when David Murphy went down, and Byrd has stepped up and claimed the position, emphatically. Location, location, location.

SELL

Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles: It's been pretty close to a career year for the sweet-swinging lefty (.300, 25 homers, 80 RBIs), but heads-up if you're in an AL-only league that doesn't include carryover stats: the Orioles have passed Huff through waivers, and they'll be trying to trade him for the rest of the month. It might be wise to explore a trade yourself, just in case.

Gerald Laird, C, Rangers: He's dealing with a sore back and hasn't been playing the last few days, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia is trying to stay on the field despite a broken bone in the bottom of his foot. It's tempting to latch onto any part of the Arlington offensive frenzy as possible, but here's one time where it might be wise to stay away.

HOLD

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: Sore wrist, eh? Ask the Rangers about it - they watched Ortiz pile up three homers, seven runs and nine RBIs over the last three days. This is also another strike against lineup protection - Ortiz and the Sox haven't missed Manny Ramirez one bit.

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By David Ferris

A lot of your leaguemates are starting to turn the calendar over to football, so a keen eye on the diamond for the final quarter of the season will be rewarded. Cheat sheets are allowed, so have a look inside our notebook and apply this info toward your pennant chase.

Batters

BUY

Ty Wigginton, Utility, Astros: His lineup spot is secure now that Carlos Lee is out for the season, and Cecil Cooper is also giving Wigginton a much better batting slot of late (and that's everything in the NL, given the dead spot at the bottom). Wigginton has been manning left field this week, which means he'll have three to four positions of eligibility in most leagues for the stretch run.

SELL

Russell Martin, C, Dodgers: It's not unusual to see catchers wilt a bit on offense during the brutal days of August, and that's what's happened with Martin over the last two months, as Joe Torre has basically stuck with the crazy usage pattern subscribed to by the old regime. Martin might have snapped out of it with three hits Wednesday night (out of the No. 8 slot, no less), but if there's any player in the league who deserves a week off, here's the guy.

HOLD

Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies: Don't write him off as a Colorado story, because his road OPS is just 24 points lower. The Rockies should able to audition the rookie the remainder of the year, as it looks doubtful that Todd Helton will play again this season.

Pitchers

BUY

Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers: He's answered the bell emphatically in all but one of his chances since Takashi Saito went on the DL, and while the club hasn't officially ruled out Saito for the season, the elbow injury he's dealing with normally leads to a date under the surgeon's knife. Your opponents might be too nervous to count on Broxton for the rest of the year, but we see him as the NL's next big thing at closer: power, movement, and the makeup needed to handle the ups-and-downs of high-leverage situations.

SELL

Chris Young, SP, Padres: A strained forearm has him back on the disabled list, and with the Padres already out of the running, there's little incentive for the team to rush him back. Young's thin 2008 stats and roomy home park will probably make him surprisingly affordable next spring.

Braden Looper, SP, Cardinals: He's kept his rotation spot with five decent turns in a row, but let's not lose track of who Looper really is. He's got the profile of a soft-tosser (73 strikeouts over 148 innings), and too many of those tosses wind up over the fence (21 homers). Forget the short-term data here; the long-term profile takes a more accurate picture.

HOLD

Chris Perez, RP, Cardinals: He's arrived ahead of schedule as the team's closer of the future (three saves the last two weeks), which has the club rethinking its plans to close with Adam Wainwright later this year. Perez's shelf life in redraft leagues might be longer than you thought, especially if he keeps locating his improved slider.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros: He's made some adjustments on the road this year, but nonetheless the splits still mandate how we can trust Rodriguez - use him at Minute Maid (3.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), and steer away at all other times (4.53, 1.47). Rodriguez probably needs one more reliable pitch if he's going to fully jump into our circle of trust.

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By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. *Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Carson Palmer, Bengals
NOTE: At least he kept Johnson.
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Derek Anderson, Browns
NOTE: Don't sweat the late 2007 fade.
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
9. David Garrard, Jaguars
10. Brett Favre, Jets
11. Jay Cutler, Broncos
12. Eli Manning, Giants
NOTE: A second major weapon would be nice.
13. Marc Bulger, Rams
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
15. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
16. Matt Schaub, Texans
NOTE: Placed to succeed, but watch out for Rosenfels.
17. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
18. Vince Young, Titans
19. Philip Rivers, Chargers
20. Jason Campbell, Redskins
21. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
NOTE: They want him to win the job.
22. Jon Kitna, Lions
23. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
24. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
25. Trent Edwards, Bills
26. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
27. Matt Ryan, Falcons
NOTE: Inside track to starting gig.
28. J.T. O'Sullivan, 49ers
NOTE: Knows the Martz offense, a major edge.
29. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
NOTE: What division has more juicy sideplots?
30. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
31. Alex Smith, 49ers
32. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
33. Rex Grossman, Bears
34. Kyle Orton, Bears
35. Sage Rosenfels, Texans
36. Chris Redman, Falcons
37. Kyle Boller, Ravens
38. Brady Quinn, Browns
39. Kellen Clemens, Jets
40. Troy Smith, Ravens
41. Joe Flacco, Ravens
42. Damon Huard, Chiefs
43. Josh McCown, Dolphins

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
4. *Steven Jackson, Rams
NOTE: It's time to get a little worried.
5. Joseph Addai, Colts
6. Clinton Portis, Redskins
7. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
NOTE: Bills stay grounded, no matter game situation.
8. Marion Barber, Cowboys
9. Frank Gore, 49ers
NOTE: The only puzzle piece Martz has.
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Jamal Lewis, Browns
13. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
14. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
15. Michael Turner, Falcons
16. Thomas Jones, Jets
17. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
NOTE: Sporadic work will drive you crazy.
18. Reggie Bush, Saints
19. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
20. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
21. *Willis McGahee, Ravens
NOTE: Knee surgery, and watch out for Rice.
22. Willie Parker, Steelers
23. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
24. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
25. Matt Forte, Bears
26. LenDale White, Titans
27. Darren McFadden, Raiders
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
NOTE: Williams has been splashy in camp.
29. Selvin Young, Broncos
30. Kevin Smith, Lions
31. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
32. Julius Jones, Seahawks
33. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
34. Ray Rice, Ravens
35. Chris Johnson, Titans
NOTE: Speed kills, but he's undersized.
36. Chester Taylor, Vikings
37. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
38. Ahman Green, Texans
39. Justin Fargas, Raiders
40. Felix Jones, Cowboys
41. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
42. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
43. Pierre Thomas, Saints
NOTE: Should be drafted before McAllister.
44. Sammy Morris, Patriots
45. Fred Jackson, Bills
46. Chris Brown, Texans
47. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
48. Leon Washington, Jets
49. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
50. Lorenzo Booker, Eagles
NOTE: Mandatory Westbrook handcuff.
51. Ladell Betts, Redskins
52. Brandon Jackson, Packers
53. Kenny Watson, Bengals
54. Tatum Bell, Lions
55. Derrick Ward, Giants
NOTE: Not a bad last-round play.
56. Brian Leonard, Rams
57. Michael Pittman, Broncos
58. Michael Bush, Raiders
59. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
60. Andre Hall, Broncos
61. Deuce McAllister, Saints
62. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
63. Kevin Jones, Bears
64. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
65. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
66. Adrian Peterson, Bears
67. Mike Hart, Colts
68. Jacob Hester, Chargers
69. Chris Perry, Bengals
70. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
71. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
72. Steve Slaton, Texans
NOTE: Is he big enough for NFL?
73. Jason Wright, Browns
74. Chris Henry, Titans
75. Ron Dayne, Texans
76. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
77. Jerome Harrison, Browns
78. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
79. Aaron Stecker, Saints
80. Jesse Chatman, Jets
81. *Ryan Torain, Broncos

Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts
3. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
4. Braylon Edwards, Browns
5. Andre Johnson, Texans
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
7. Marques Colston, Saints
NOTE: Patron Saint of Day 2 picks.
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
9. Chad Johnson, Bengals
10. *Plaxico Burress, Giants
11. Torry Holt, Rams
12. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
NOTE: Angry about deal, but will play it out.
13. *Steve Smith, Panthers
14. Wes Welker, Patriots
15. Roy Williams, Lions
16. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
17. Greg Jennings, Packers
18. Calvin Johnson, Lions
NOTE: Has been dynamic in camp.
19. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
20. *Brandon Marshall, Broncos
21. Roddy White, Falcons
22. Lee Evans, Bills
23. Hines Ward, Steelers
24. Marvin Harrison, Colts
25. Laveranues Coles, Jets
26. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
27. Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
NOTE: Can he cheat Father Time one more season?
28. Donald Driver, Packers
29. Chris Chambers, Chargers
30. Santana Moss, Redskins
31. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
32. Nate Burleson, Seahawks
NOTE: Steps up with Engram injury.
33. Reggie Brown, Eagles
34. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
35. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
36. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
NOTE: So trendy, he's a bit overpriced.
37. D.J. Hackett, Panthers
38. Ronald Curry, Raiders
NOTE: He's always their smartest receiver.
39. Reggie Williams, Jaguars
40. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
41. Isaac Bruce, 49ers
42. Sidney Rice, Vikings
43. Justin Gage, Titans
44. Darrell Jackson, Broncos
45. Jerry Porter, Jaguars
46. Drew Bennett, Rams
47. Javon Walker, Raiders
NOTE: Has the desire left for good?
48. Derrick Mason, Ravens
49. Robert Meachem, Saints
NOTE: Went off in preseason opener.
50. *Bryant Johnson, 49ers
51. Devin Hester, Bears
52. Donte' Stallworth, Browns
53. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
54. Marty Booker, Bears
55. Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
NOTE: Brady trusts him in all spots.
56. Derek Hagan, Dolphins
NOTE: By default, could be their No. 1.
57. *Laurent Robinson, Falcons
58. Demetrius Williams, Ravens
59. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
60. Kevin Walter, Texans
61. Mark Clayton, Ravens
62. Amani Toomer, Giants
63. Brandon Stokley, Broncos
64. Eddie Royal, Broncos
NOTE: Running with starters right now.
65. Drew Carter, Raiders
66. Ernest Wilford, Dolphins
67. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
68. David Patten, Saints
69. *Deion Branch, Seahawks
NOTE: Won't be ready for opener.
70. Chad Jackson, Patriots
71. Bobby Wade, Vikings
72. James Hardy, Bills
73. Ike Hilliard, Buccaneers
74. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
75. Josh Morgan, 49ers
76. Matt Jones, Jaguars
77. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
78. Mark Bradley, Bears
79. Courtney Taylor, Seahawks
80. Roydell Williams, Titans
81. Early Doucet, Cardinals
82. Chris Henry, FA

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, Cowboys
2. Kellen Winslow, Browns
3. *Antonio Gates, Chargers
NOTE: How quickly will he be 100 percent?
4. Dallas Clark, Colts
5. Chris Cooley, Redskins
6. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
7. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
8. Todd Heap, Ravens
9. Heath Miller, Steelers
10. Owen Daniels, Texans
NOTE: Trustable hands, knows offense well.
11. Vernon Davis, 49ers
12. Tony Scheffler, Broncos
NOTE: Will get red zone looks.
13. Alge Crumpler, Titans
14. Donald Lee, Packers
15. Greg Olsen, Bears
16. L.J. Smith, Eagles
17. Zach Miller, Raiders
18. Ben Watson, Patriots
19. Dustin Keller, Jets
20. Kevin Boss, Giants
NOTE: Worth a gamble with Shockey gone.
21. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
22. Randy McMichael, Rams
23. Ben Utecht, Bengals
24. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
25. Desmond Clark, Bears
26. Alex Smith, Buccaneers
27. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
28. Jeff King, Panthers
29. David Martin, Dolphins
30. John Carlson, Seahawks
31. Chris Baker, Jets
32. Daniel Graham, Broncos
33. Robert Royal, Bills
34. Bo Scaife, Titans

Kicker
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys
2. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
5. Mason Crosby, Packers
6. Rob Bironas, Titans
NOTE: Don't chase last year's run.
7. Shayne Graham, Bengals
8. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
9. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
10. Josh Brown, Rams
11. David Akers, Eagles
NOTE: Has the ability, but tricky kicker schedule.
12. Kris Brown, Texans
13. Phil Dawson, Browns
14. Robbie Gould, Bears
15. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
NOTE: Monster leg, but runs hot and cold.
16. Mike Nugent, Jets
17. Jeff Reed, Steelers
18. Shaun Suisham, Redskins
19. Jason Hanson, Lions
20. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
21. Matt Stover, Ravens
22. John Kasay, Panthers
23. Rian Lindell, Bills
24. Matt Prater, Broncos
25. Jason Elam, Falcons
26. Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
27. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
28. Joe Nedney, 49ers
29. Olindo Mare, Seahawks
30. Jay Feely, Dolphins
31. Martin Gramatica, Saints
32. Billy Cundiff, Chiefs

Defense
1. Vikings
2. Chargers
NOTE: They're No. 1 on some boards.
3. Cowboys
4. Patriots
5. Giants
6. Jaguars
NOTE: A good shot to topple Colts.
7. Bears
NOTE: Downgrade them if you don't get Hester push.
8. Ravens
9. Packers
10. Seahawks
11. Steelers
12. Buccaneers
13. Eagles
14. Titans
15. Redskins
16. Bills
17. Texans
18. Panthers
NOTE: Peppers has that nasty look again.
19. Colts
20. Raiders
21. Broncos
22. Cardinals
23. Jets
24. Falcons
25. 49ers
26. Browns
27. Bengals
28. Rams
29. Chiefs
30. Lions
31. Saints
32. Dolphins

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By Mark P. Stopa

Are you tired of hearing about Brett Favre? I know I am. Despite all the coverage about him, though, nobody seems to be giving any insightful fantasy analysis. I will try to change that, along with some other insights to help as you prepare for your fantasy draft.

To help put things in context, I provide each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, which is based on the results of hundreds of fantasy drafts, courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" during the preseason means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Matt Forte, RB, Bears (ADP: 62): Every year, a rookie RB has more than 1,000 yards and 8 to 10 TDs. Last year it was Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. This year it will be Forte. Let's face it: The Bears know they aren't going to win with Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman throwing the ball all game. I'd take Forte earlier than the sixth round, ahead of RBs such as Julius Jones (ADP: 53) and Fred Taylor (ADP: 57).

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions (ADP: 73): See Matt Forte. Also note that Smith just started getting regular reps with the first team after Tatum Bell spit the bit this weekend (7 carries, 8 yards). His 450 carries last year at Central Florida are a concern, but he can obviously handle a feature-back workload.

Selvin Young and Andre Hall, RB, Broncos (ADP: 64, 184, respectively): Last year, the Broncos' RB situation was a mess. But that was an anomaly. Nearly every year under Mike Shanahan, a Broncos RB has emerged, often out of nowhere, and put up good numbers. (Remember Olandis Gary?) So while your league-mates remember last year and avoid Denver RBs, I suggest you take Young in the fifth or sixth round, handcuff him with Hall later in the draft, and get 1RB value when one of them locks down the starting role. It's a little risky, but with Ryan Torain out of the picture (broken elbow), chances are that either Young or Hall will emerge.

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints (ADP: 176): Somebody is going to start at WR opposite Marques Colston. My money is on Meachem, the Saints' 2007 first-round pick. The Saints can score and are the most pass-happy team in the league; so there is upside here.

No Change

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (ADP: 48): I've seen McFadden going in the third round in lots of mock drafts. I think fourth/fifth round for McFadden is about right. Sure, the explosiveness and upside are there. But Justin Fargas and Michael Bush (the favorite for goal-line carries) are very much in the picture, and the Raiders' offense isn't good enough for all of these guys to get enough touches every week. I like McFadden as a fourth-rounder, not before.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (ADP: 5): His holdout is starting to concern me. But I'd be shocked if Jackson actually sits out any regular-season games. Give it another two to three weeks; if Jackson hasn't reported to camp by then, that's when I'll downgrade him.

Downgrades

Brett Favre, QB, Jets (no ADP yet): The hype surrounding Favre right now is insane. Can he live up to it? I'm skeptical. He was good last year, sure, but his supporting cast in Green Bay was NFC-Championship caliber. In 2006 and 2005, with supporting casts more closely resembling the one he will have this year with the Jets, Favre had 38 TDs (in two seasons), 47 INTs and a putrid 6.35 YPA. Around Week 10, when the Jets are 3-4 games behind the Patriots and it becomes apparent they aren't going to the playoffs, Favre is going to wish he stayed retired. Then, you'll be glad that you let somebody else buy into the preseason hype.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks (ADP: 59): Quick, name a wide receiver on the Seahawks. Nate Burleson, OK. Name another. Bobby Engram? No, he just cracked his shoulder and is out six to eight weeks. Deion Branch? He's injured, too. DJ Hackett? He's a Panther now. Hasselbeck is still a good QB, but his lack of weapons at WR and TE is troubling. I'd put Hasselbeck in the same group with Donovan McNabb (also being over-drafted at his ADP of 65). That means he's a notch below the top seven QBs (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Anderson -- in that order on my cheat sheet).

All Tight Ends: It wasn't long ago that Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez were head and shoulders above the other tight ends in the league, justifying their selection in the second or third round. This year, there are numerous starter-quality tight ends, including, count with me, Gates (1), Gonzalez (2), Jason Witten (3), Kellen Winslow (4), Dallas Clark (5), Chris Cooley (6), Jeremy Shockey (7), Vernon Davis (8), Todd Heap (9), Heath Miller (10), Ben Watson (11), Alge Crumpler (12). Why did I count them out? Well, if there are 12 teams in your league, that means you can wait until the 12th or 13th round (Crumpler's ADP is 131) and still fill the need, allowing you to spend your earlier picks on RBs and WRs.

Michael Salfino contributed to this report.

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By Michael Salfino

The Olympics have stirred up quite a baseball debate. Actually, it's more like a diatribe against change. The medalists in baseball could be determined by a new rule that looks to short circuit extra-inning games by having each team start the 11th inning and all innings thereafter with runners on first and second and no one out.

Oh, and you get to pick where you want to start your lineup -- the two runners on base must be the two batters who preceeded your hitter (and lineup starter) of choice. After the 11th inning, though, the lineup starts where it left off, except that the first two hitters due up don't hit but are placed on first and second base.

Bob Costas must have reacted like Jack Woltz when he found that severed horse's head in his bed in "The Godfather." The purist ideal of baseball lies in bloody ruins.

But I find the strategic implications so intoxicating that I wouldn't mind having this done in the major leagues, similar to how hockey ends regular-season ties differently. We can keep the old-school way of settling tie games intact for the postseason.

But how much bang is the Olympics getting in doing this to end tied contests sooner? Isn't it almost as likely to end up tied after an inning where teams start this same way instead of starting the regular way -- no one on and no outs?

After one inning, you have a 23-percent chance to still be tied the Olympic way, versus 53 percent the traditional way. After two innings, that changes to 5 percent (still tied) the Olympic way and 28 percent the traditional way. This data comes from Tom Tango, co-author of "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball."

The strategy conundrum is best explained by Davey Johnson, the U.S. Olympic manager and opponent of the new idea:

"We'll probably try different scenarios," Johnson said. "[Do you] play for one run or for a bunch of runs?" That depends, he said, on what scouts tell him about the run-producing ability of the opponent.

Think of how much fun this could be in the majors. Of course, managers would hate it, because the possibilities for second-guessing are endless. Ironically, the thing purists love most about baseball is second-guessing, yet they hate this rule.

The people making this decision could have done far worse things to more quickly end tied games. A home-run-hitting contest or other skills competition is too far removed from the essence of the game, which this new rule still embraces. You have to use a pitcher with a defense behind him. You have to set your lineup. You have to decide whether to play for the big inning or whether a mere run will be enough considering who pitches your bottom half of the inning. The manager of the home team has it easy because he knows in his half-inning exactly what he needs to do. Of course, so does the opponent, who can bring the infield in or load up the bases to create a force situation at home.

All this talk about late-inning close games logically flows into a discussion of relievers. Let's assess some noteworthy big-league names.

Buy

Joakim Soria, Royals: The best reliever in baseball: 11 walks and 29 hits in 54 innings with 58 Ks closes the case.

Grant Balfour, Rays: He's been as lights-out as Soria without the saves. His 50 Ks and 12 hits in 35 innings says he's turning the AL into a Little League playground.

Hold

Francisco Rodriguez, Angels: His K-rate is at four-year low, and his walk rate at four-year high. His ERA should be about 3.84 with average luck on balls in play (76 percent are outs this year, 70 percent last year).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: With average defense behind him and average luck in stranding baserunners, his ERA would be 2.29, not 3.65. The line-drive rate is high, though: 23 percent.

Trevor Hoffman, Padres: His fastball speed, on average, is at a four-year high (86 mph), according to my friends at Baseball Info Solutions. It's batting practice when hitters guess right (7 homers in 36 innings). But he doesn't hurt himself (five unintentional walks).

Sell

George Sherrill, Orioles: This year's Joe Borowksi: 1.51 ratio and 4.66 ERA. "Guts and savvy" are euphemisms for "dumb luck." Borowski's guts this year are presumably intact, along with his savvy, but he's out on the pavement because the luck ran out.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: With 22 Ks in 42 innings, he's turned into the new Todd Jones -- in other words, too finesse.

Kevin Gregg, Marlins: Terrible control (28 walks in 54 frames). He's survived by allowing one homer in 54 innings. Is giving up homers beyond a pitcher's control to a large extent? I think so, because hitters dictate outcomes, too.

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By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 8/12
Next Update: 8/19

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: Bullpen not doing him any favors.
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. CC Sabathia, Brewers
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. Cliff Lee, Indians
10. Scott Kazmir, Rays
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
13. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
NOTE: The best is yet to come.
14. Rich Harden, Cubs
15. John Lackey, Angels
16. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
17. James Shields, Rays
18. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
19. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
20. *Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
21. Matt Cain, Giants
22. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. Ervin Santana, Angels
25. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
26. John Danks, White Sox
27. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
28. Francisco Liriano, Twins
29. Ted Lilly, Cubs
30. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
31. Joe Saunders, Angels
32. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
33. Justin Verlander, Tigers
NOTE: Just like Felix, a maddening tease.
34. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: It was fun while it lasted.
35. Jered Weaver, Angels
36. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
37. Jon Lester, Red Sox
38. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
39. Chris Young, Padres
40. Manny Parra, Brewers
41. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
NOTE: Ground-ball master can miss bats, too.
42. Roy Oswalt, Astros
43. Matt Garza, Rays
44. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
45. Scott Baker, Twins
46. Gil Meche, Royals
47. Kevin Slowey, Twins
48. Aaron Cook, Rockies
49. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NOTE: Learning to crawl.
50. Josh Johnson, Marlins
51. Mike Mussina, Yankees
52. Zack Greinke, Royals
53. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
54. Paul Maholm, Pirates
55. Oliver Perez, Mets
56. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
57. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
58. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
59. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
60. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
61. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
62. Jorge Campillo, Braves
63. David Bush, Brewers
NOTE: Off the restricted list.
64. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
65. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
66. Fausto Carmona, Indians
67. Chris Volstad, Marlins
68. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
69. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
70. Nick Blackburn, Twins
71. *David Price, Rays
72. *John Maine, Mets
73. Pedro Martinez, Mets
NOTE: Just a six-inning guy now.
74. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
75. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
76. *Scott Olsen, Marlins
77. *Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
78. Aaron Harang, Reds
79. Glen Perkins, Twins
80. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
81. Odalis Perez, Nationals
82. Greg Maddux, Padres
83. *Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
84. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
85. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
86. Joe Blanton, Phillies
87. Tim Redding, Nationals
88. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
89. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
90. Edwin Jackson, Rays
91. Jon Garland, Angels
NOTE: Needs a lot of help to win ballgames.
92. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
93. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
94. Johnny Cueto, Reds
95. Randy Wolf, Astros
96. Ian Snell, Pirates
NOTE: K's are there, but too inconsistent.
97. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
98. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
99. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
100. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
101. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
102. *Sean Gallagher, Athletics
103. David Purcey, Blue Jays
104. Luke Hochevar, Royals
105. Brian Bannister, Royals

Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
5. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
6. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: Best closer never talked about.
7. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Brian Wilson, Giants
10. *Kerry Wood, Cubs
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. Troy Percival, Rays
14. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
15. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
16. Salomon Torres, Brewers
17. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
18. George Sherrill, Orioles
NOTE: Mediocre profile but saves are saves.
19. *Billy Wagner, Mets
20. J.J. Putz, Mariners
21. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Rauch is closing ground.
22. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
23. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
24. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
25. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
26. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: Being groomed to close again.
27. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
28. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
29. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
30. Rafael Perez, Indians
31. Kyle Farnsworth, Tigers
32. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
NOTE: One of the stories of the year.
33. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
34. John Grabow, Pirates
35. *Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Might be back this month.
36. Grant Balfour, Rays
37. Joey Devine, Athletics
38. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
39. Frank Francisco, Rangers
NOTE: Guardado is no sure thing.
40. *Chris Perez, Cardinals
41. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
42. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
43. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
44. Eddie Kunz, Mets
45. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
46. Heath Bell, Padres
47. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
48. Tyler Yates, Pirates
49. Jerry Blevins, Athletics
50. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
51. Aaron Heilman, Mets
52. Huston Street, Athletics
53. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
54. Chad Durbin, Phillies
55. Dan Wheeler, Rays
56. Craig Hansen, Pirates
57. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
58. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
59. Bob Howry, Cubs
60. Eric Gagne, Brewers
61. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
62. Jose Arredondo, Angels
63. Matt Thornton, White Sox
64. Scot Shields, Angels
65. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
66. Saul Rivera, Nationals
67. Doug Brocail, Astros
68. Blaine Boyer, Braves
69. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
70. J.P. Howell, Rays
71. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
72. Mike Lincoln, Reds
73. David Weathers, Reds
74. Joe Nelson, Marlins
75. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
76. *Todd Jones, Tigers
77. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
78. Damaso Marte, Yankees
79. Luis Ayala, Nationals
80. *Scott Linebrink, White Sox
81. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
82. *Ron Mahay, Royals

---

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 8/12
Next Update: 8/19

First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Angels
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers
NOTE: So much for the diet concerns.
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
7. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. Carlos Pena, Rays
11. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
12. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
NOTE: Not swinging well, plus the wrist issue.
12. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
14. *Adam LaRoche, Pirates
15. Carlos Delgado, Mets
16. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Jason Giambi, Yankees
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Casey Kotchman, Braves
21. Jim Thome, White Sox
22. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
23. Kevin Millar, Orioles
24. *Travis Hafner, Indians
25. Paul Konerko, White Sox
26. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
NOTE: A sad endgame.

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Howie Kendrick, Angels
NOTE: Speed is here now, power will come.
8. Robinson Cano, Yankees
9. Kaz Matsui, Astros
10. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
11. Kelly Johnson, Braves
12. Placido Polanco, Tigers
13. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
14. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
15. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
16. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
17. Jose Lopez, Mariners
NOTE: A tougher out than you think.
18. Mark Ellis, Athletics
19. Willie Harris, Nationals
20. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
21. *Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
22. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
23. Nick Punto, Twins
NOTE: No star, but Gardenhire likes him.
24. Jeff Baker, Rockies
25. Clint Barmes, Rockies
26. *Jerry Hairston, Reds
27. *Luis Castillo, Mets
28. *Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
29. Eugenio Velez, Giants
30. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
31. Augie Ojeda, Diamondbacks
32. Brendan Harris, Twins
33. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Derek Jeter, Yankees
5. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. *Michael Young, Rangers
8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
NOTE: Quietly, a growth year.
9. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
15. Yunel Escobar, Braves
16. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Erick Aybar, Angels
19. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
20. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
21. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
22. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
23. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
NOTE: How much bad speed is left?
24. Jack Wilson, Pirates
25. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
26. David Eckstein, Blue Jays

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. *Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Chipper Jones, Braves
7. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
8. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
9. Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
11. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
12. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Lots of empty swings, but production is there.
13. Chris Davis, Rangers
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. *Evan Longoria, Rays
16. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
17. Ian Stewart, Rockies
NOTE: Spot safe with Helton injury.
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
19. Melvin Mora, Orioles
20. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
21. Ty Wigginton, Astros
22. Ryan Garko, Indians
23. Willy Aybar, Rays
NOTE: Gets time with Longoria out.
24. Alex Gordon, Royals
25. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
26. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
27. Josh Fields, White Sox
28. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
29. *Joe Crede, White Sox
30. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
31. Jose Castillo, Giants

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Matt Holliday, Rockies
3. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
4. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
NOTE: Still an overlord when he's focused.
5. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
9. Nate McLouth, Pirates
10. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. B.J. Upton, Rays
12. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
13. Jason Bay, Red Sox
14. Carlos Beltran, Mets
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
19. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
20. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
21. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
NOTE: A divorce both sides needed.
22. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
23. Pat Burrell, Phillies
24. Hunter Pence, Astros
25. Shane Victorino, Phillies
26. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
27. Torii Hunter, Angels
28. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
29. Xavier Nady, Yankees
30. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
31. Jay Bruce, Reds
32. Johnny Damon, Yankees
33. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
34. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
35. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
36. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Back in form last two weeks.
37. Willy Taveras, Rockies
38. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
39. *Jose Guillen, Royals
40. David DeJesus, Royals
41. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
NOTE: Starting to put it all together.
42. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
43. Nick Swisher, White Sox
44. Randy Winn, Giants
45. *Luke Scott, Orioles
46. Aaron Rowand, Giants
47. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
48. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
49. Josh Willingham, Marlins
50. Fred Lewis, Giants
51. Denard Span, Twins
NOTE: Underrated part of the offense.
52. Jason Kubel, Twins
53. Mike Cameron, Brewers
54. Delmon Young, Twins
55. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
56. *Michael Bourn, Astros
57. Austin Kearns, Nationals
58. *Ken Griffey, White Sox
59. Juan Rivera, Angels
60. Jack Cust, Athletics
61. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
62. *Adam Jones, Orioles
63. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
64. Garret Anderson, Angels
65. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
66. Chase Headley, Padres
67. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
68. Ben Francisco, Indians
69. Matt Joyce, Tigers
70. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
71. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
72. Scott Hairston, Padres
73. Reed Johnson, Cubs
74. Jody Gerut, Padres
NOTE: Making most of part-time gig.
75. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
76. Cody Ross, Marlins
77. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
78. Brian Giles, Padres
79. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
80. Gregor Blanco, Braves
81. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
82. Jayson Werth, Phillies
83. Fernando Tatis, Mets
84. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
85. Bill Hall, Brewers
86. *Marcus Thames, Tigers
87. Mark Teahen, Royals
88. Brian Giles, Padres
89. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
90. *David Murphy, Rangers
91. Endy Chavez, Mets
92. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
93. John Bowker, Giants
94. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
95. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
96. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
97. Steve Pearce, Pirates
98. *Carl Crawford, Rays
NOTE: A huge minus player for 2008.
99. Gary Matthews, Angels
100. Ross Gload, Royals

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
4. Geovany Soto, Cubs
5. Bengie Molina, Giants
6. Joe Mauer, Twins
7. Dioner Navarro, Rays
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
11. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
12. Gerald Laird, Rangers
13. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
NOTE: He'll play even when Victor returns.
14. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
15. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
16. *Victor Martinez, Indians
17. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
18. Jesus Flores, Nationals
19. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
20. Jeff Clement, Mariners
NOTE: A fast finish is possible here.
21. John Buck, Royals
22. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
23. Brandon Inge, Tigers
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Mike Napoli, Angels
26. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
27. Chris Coste, Phillies
28. Jason Kendall, Brewers
29. Jeff Mathis, Angels
30. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
31. Miguel Olivo, Royals

---

By Michael Salfino

Tight end is a position that can have a ripple effect on offensive firepower. Get a hybrid wide receiver there and you force defenses to pick their poison. Jets head coach Eric Mangini, who traded up to grab rookie hotshot Dustin Keller in the first round in April, explains:

"You have to make a decision: How much coverage do you want to push out to the receiver and how wide open do you want to leave that middle corridor? If you can threaten all three of those areas -- outside and up the middle -- it's a stretch on the opposing defenses."

Mangini was speaking after a recent scrimmage highlighted by a 55-yard Keller catch and run for a TD.

"The play is a really good look at how a tight end can affect the defense," Mangini said. "Deep down the middle of the field he gets over the top, catches it, they miss one tackle and you go the distance."

The economics say that a stud receiving tight end -- someone too fast for linebackers to cover and too big for defensive backs -- is the most valuable guy in the league right now. Teams don't have to pay a lot for them, mostly because there are so few who fit this bill.

Given the NFL's free-agent rules, salaries of all premium players are tied to the average of what the top five players make at each position. This year, that average for tight ends is $4.52 million. Conversely, the average annual salary of the five highest-paid wide receivers is $7.85 million. A healthy Antonio Gates is as valuable to the Chargers as the top wide receivers are to their respective teams. But San Diego only has to pay Gates 60 cents on the dollar compared to what top wideouts cost their teams.

This is why so few big-time tight ends leave their team via free agency compared to players at other positions. So if Keller turns out to be the stud Mangini and the Jets envision, the Jets will more easily be able to slide him under their salary cap for as long as they desire.

Teams demonstrate their belief that their tight end is the type who creates mismatches by targeting him (times thrown to).

Last year's tight-end target leader was the Chiefs' Tony Gonzalez (154). Close behind were Kellen Winslow (Browns, 148) and Jason Witten (Cowboys, 141). Also greatly emphasizing tight ends was Chicago, 132 targets split between Greg Olsen (a rookie last year) and Desmond Clark. The Bears reportedly want Olsen to be the focus of their passing game this year.

If we use these target numbers the right way, we get a sense of the efficiency of each player by noting the average gain per target. Last year, the leader (minimum 40 targets) was the Jets' Chris Baker (9.3 yards per target), followed by Heath Miller (Steelers, 9.28), Ben Watson (Patriots, 9.26), Donald Lee (Packers, 9.1), Gates (8.4), Owen Daniels (Texans, 8.2) and Witten (8.1).

Now for some tight end recommendations.

Buy

Jeremy Shockey, Saints: He had his best year when Saints coach Sean Payton was his offensive coordinator (with the Giants). Payton knows how to deploy him, unlike Kevin Gilbride, who often wasted him as a blocker on third downs. Shockey landed in the league's most pass-happy offense.

Vernon Davis, Niners: He might be a "great tools, no toolbox" guy. Mike Martz hasn't used tight ends in the past, but he's committed to Davis not just in-line, but in four-WR formations. The gamble is whether Davis can master Martz's thick playbook.

Dustin Keller, Jets: Brett Favre always gets production out of the position, and Keller is an elite athlete. Get him as your backup, as he'll start the season sharing snaps with Baker (whom the staff views as a malcontent) and former Packer Bubba Franks (over the hill).

Hold

Kellen Winslow, Browns: He's the Joe Namath of tight ends in that he started his career on borrowed time due to bad knees. We can only imagine how great he would have been if not for that motorcycle mishap. Winslow must endure constant pain to play.

Sell

Chris Cooley, Redskins: The Seahawks-style offense that new head coach Jim Zorn has imported mostly ignores the tight end outside the red zone. Cooley lacks size and playing speed. Expect the catches and yards to underwhelm, even if he manages eight TDs.

Dallas Clark, Colts: A healthy Marvin Harrison pushes him to the backburner in the Colts offense, and the targets (101) weren't heavy even in '07. His efficiency (6.10 yards per target) says he's very overrated.

Alge Crumpler, Titans: Played fat, old and slow for Atlanta last year (6.3 yards per target). Yes, the Falcons QBs were terrible. But Vince Young also has a lot to prove as a passer, and Bo Scaife will share TE looks.

---

By Michael Salfino

Starters make cameos if they appear at all in the first full week of preseason games. We have to wait until the next to last week of August football for all teams to give their engines even a little regular-season gas.

Until then, almost all of the important stuff happens on sweat-soaked NFL practice fields. To some extent, though, we can use the games to gauge offseason recoveries from injuries, how players look in new uniforms/systems and how quickly rookies are adapting to the speed of the NFL game.

And most years there's at least one team bucking convention and taking things more seriously. An offense is guaranteed to be productive if it summons some real September fury against the vanilla defenses teams employ to prevent regular-season Week 1 opponents from getting any usable film. The Vikings were that offense this weekend.

Minnesota called 13 passes in their first 14 plays and Tarvaris Jackson threw for 118 yards and a score in little more than a quarter of action. View this as a regular-season indicator at your peril. The Vikings apparently want to cement Jackson as their starter and imbue him with some confidence, but they will be a defense-oriented, run-first team when the bullets start flying for real.

Here are other things that made it into my notebook this weekend.

In Detroit, Tatum Bell's seven-carry, 8-yard day got him a demotion to the second team at Sunday's practice. That's actually bad news for those of us wanting to sneak Kevin Smith on to our rosters as a No. 3 back with serious upside. The 6-1, 211-pound rookie was no "Silent Bob" last year at Central Florida, making lots of noise with 450 carries, 2,809 yards and 30 TDs (yes, all in one college season).

The Bears' Matt Forte caught a Kyle Orton bullet near the sidelines with his hands, which allows a back to keep his feet moving and pile up some yards after catch (YAC). Forte seems ready to be a poor man's Joseph Addai given his broad-range of skills that make the whole greater than the sum of its parts. But Addai has Peyton Manning keeping defenses at bay, not Orton or, gasp, Rex Grossman.

The Jets' David Clowney (two long-distance TD grabs) is a former Packers fifth-round pick timed at a 4.37 at the combine in 2007. He not only showed home-run speed Thursday night, but the ability to beat the jam. Clowney is the type of receiver who can suddenly emerge as a threat running under Brett Favre's rainbows. Keep him on your "watch" list for now.

Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers' No. 1 pick, is having predictable problems learning the playbook and has struggled in goal-line drills. Still, expect him to fully supplant the one-dimensional and aging Willie Parker (also recovering from last year's broken leg) by Halloween. Mendenhall impressed enough on Friday night (7 carries, 34 yards), getting multiple snaps with the first unit.

Lamont Jordan (19 carries, 76 yards and a score) seems sufficiently suitable to siphon major production from Laurence Maroney, whom the Patriots always look to minimize - presumably for good reason. Expect Jordan to play the Corey Dillon role in New England for as long as his body holds up, taking away lots of TDs and those easy fourth-quarter yards against tired defenses resigned to defeat.

No team has put a bigger effort into landing impact wide receivers than the Jaguars in recent years, nor has less to show for it. With Jerry Porter (hamstring surgery), Reggie Williams (knee) and Troy Williamson (undisclosed) all out indefinitely, Matt Jones is the No. 1 guy for now. Though Jones is having a great offseason on the practice field, off of hit he's facing felony drug charges after police say they found him cutting cocaine with a credit card.

Maurice Morris took the lead over Julius Jones in the Week 1 game stats for the Seahawks, but remember our warning about the relative unimportance of preseason games for veterans and keep Jones well above Morris on your cheat sheets.

Michael Bush's smashing goal-line run versus the Niners gives him the inside tack to getting the easy scores in the Raiders' Ghidrah-like running game. Bush seems fully recovered from his broken leg and has significant upside if Darren McFadden gets hurt (you know Justin Fargas will).

Rookie Tim Hightower found the end zone for the Cardinals. Edgerrin James has proven to be a pathetically inept short-yardage and goal-line runner and is pretty far down the wrong side of the mountain in other areas, too. Hightower (6-1, 217) had 1,900 yards and 20 TDs as a college senior last year, albeit at Richmond.

Brian Leonard (5 carries, 12 yards) did nothing to hurt Steven Jackson's bargaining power in his Rams holdout, to which there remains no end in sight. Jackson's camp has stated that he's better off sitting out the whole year than risking injury for the meager amount his contract dictates. Jackson is poised to be a free agent in February. Of course, this is the kind of thing holdouts always say, but I have a bad feeling about this extending well beyond opening day and thus would only draft Jackson now at a very steep discount.

---

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Aug. 11 to 17, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Denard Span, OF, Twins: After an extended stint in the minors, this forgotten Twins speedster has claimed the top spot in the batting order, and has responded with a .326 average and 17 runs scored over the past month. His ability to fill up the stat sheet with runs, doubles, triples, steals and the occasional homer make him a valuable asset.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians: He'll be making his fourth and fifth starts after coming off the DL in July, so the arm strength should be just about back to normal. His two starts this week come at home against the Orioles and the Angels, where he won 10 games last season. He dominated the Angels back on April 7, going six strong innings while only giving up one unearned run.

Bench 'em

Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: A horrid last month featuring a .171 average with one home run and 10 runs batted in has eliminated any value he may have in mixed leagues. His .241 average last August shows he can only go up from here, but certainly not enough to warrant a roster spot on your fantasy team.

Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox: His breakout campaign abruptly slammed into a brick wall during the past month, evident by his 5.47 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. He gets a single road start this week against the A's, which is not good news; his ERA away from U.S. Cellular field this season is 4.72.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: Finally healthy, he's really come on during the past week, smashing four home runs while hitting well over .300. He makes for an interesting power and speed threat from here on out (11 homers and 14 steals in '08), especially if this roll he is on is proof that he has turned the corner from intriguing prospect into player.

Jeff Karstens, SP, Pirates: He's coming off a two-hit shutout of the Diamondbacks, and has pitched 15 scoreless innings since coming over to the Pirates in the Nady/Marte deal with the Yankees. This is an impressive feat for a player considered to be organizational depth. Always grab two-start guys on a roll and his this week come at home against the Reds and the Mets.

Bench 'em

Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: Things were looking great for the Nats' shortstop this season: he signed a two-year extension and made the All-Star team. But things have begun to unravel over the past month. He is batting only .226 during that span with seven runs scored. His value takes an additional hit with the news of a nagging thumb injury. Actually, this is the real Guzman most expected to step up. Find another option.

Manny Parra, SP, Brewers: His team is in a tailspin right now that was propelled by a sweep at the hands of the Cubs. Parra recently was assaulted in the dugout by teammate Prince Fielder after a brutal outing. Pair these two negatives with only one start this week on the road against the Dodgers (road ERA of 5.00) and the Parra play becomes too risky.

---

By David Ferris

It can be difficult to keep focus during the dog days of August (especially with the siren of football singing), but true rotisserie champions know the importance of staying the course for six months. Here's a look at our current playbook - OK, make that scouting notebook - as we look to finish strong over the final quarter of the season.

Batters

BUY

Denard Span, OF, Twins: He's been a nifty fit in the leadoff spot (.297 average, .375 OBP), and he can also run and play defense - ask the Mariners, they'll tell you. Ron Gardenhire took far too long to take Carlos Gomez out of the leadoff spot, but Span has a hammerlock on that role now. Enjoy the ride.

SELL

Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: He's been slogging through a mediocre year, but the name-brand and the feel-good vibe of Tampa hides some of that. Here's what he's given you the last five weeks: .242 average, .344 slugging, no homers, six measly stolen bases. See if someone out there wants to pay superstar prices for ordinary production. Last week's sore hamstring also looms here; I don't expect Crawford to go on a patented SB-run the remainder of the season.

HOLD

Kelly Shoppach, C, Indians: He's been hammering everything in the second half (.377, five homers, 1.250 OPS), and the Tribe plans on keeping Shoppach as the regular catcher even when Victor Martinez comes back. And given the floating timetables attached to Martinez, and Cleveland's place in the standings, we can't be positive that the injured backstop even makes a return of note in 2008. Bottom line: Shoppach is a Top 10 catcher in today value, and that's not going to change for a while.

­Pitchers

BUY

Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles: There's been fantasy value to 21 of his 24 turns this year, but still Guthrie toils in relative anonymity. Anyone who can compile a 3.35 ERA working in the rough-and-tumble AL East, I take my hat off too. Guthrie has nudged his ground-ball rate forward this year and he's keeping the ball in the park more, two signs that his growth in 2008 is real.

Rafael Perez, RP, Indians: He's been Cleveland's best reliever by far this season, against both sides of the plate at that. Eric Wedge realizes Perez's skill set and likes to use the left-hander in the tightest spots, but recent blowups in the ninth inning (we're looking at you, Masa Kobayashi) could be the impetus for a change. Bet on Perez's skills, and have faith that Wedge won't take those gut-wrenching ninth-inning losses forever. Something's likely to give here.

SELL

Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners: I suppose he'll probably make some sort of mound appearance down the stretch, as he's angling for free-agent dollars. But I've seen too many physical breakdowns from him in 2008 to think about investing. If there's still a cash-out price on this stock, take it.

Justin Duchscherer, SP, Athletics: His ERA has crept up to 2.51 over the last couple of starts, and there could be a downright collapse in the offing. Consider that Duchscherer had just five career starts entering this year (against 192 relief appearances), and he never threw more than 96 innings in the majors before 2008. Oakland's supporting cast doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, either; wins could be hard to come by.

Eddie Guardado, RP, Rangers: He's got the ball in the ninth inning for now and possession is the law when it comes to saves. But Guardado's 3.02 ERA is a brilliant disguise: he's not striking anyone out, he's been insanely lucky on balls in play and his velocity doesn't go past the high-80s these days. The AL batters will catch up to Guardado soon enough, but fantasy owners might want to cash out now. Frank Francisco has a shot to be the guy who really comes in and saves the day here, down the stretch.

HOLD

Grant Balfour, RP, Rays: He's third in the pecking order for saves, but the rest of the numbers scream at you: 1.39 ERA, .113 average against, 49 strikeouts in 32.1 innings. Consider the fragility of Troy Percival and it's not hard to envision Balfour as a save-grabber in 2009, or perhaps next month, if the dominoes fall right.

---

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. *Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Tony Romo, Cowboys
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Carson Palmer, Bengals
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Derek Anderson, Browns
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
9. David Garrard, Jaguars
10. Brett Favre, Jets
NOTE: Upgrades all elements of NY passing game.
11. Jay Cutler, Broncos
NOTE: Can breakout if Marshall shapes up.
12. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
NOTE: Missing a No. 1 target.
13. Marc Bulger, Rams
14. Eli Manning, Giants
NOTE: He's growing, but don't overrate playoff success.
15. Matt Schaub, Texans
16. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
17. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
18. Vince Young, Titans
19. Philip Rivers, Chargers
20. Jason Campbell, Redskins
21. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
NOTE: They want him to win the job.
22. Jon Kitna, Lions
23. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
24. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
25. Trent Edwards, Bills
26. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
27. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
28. Alex Smith, 49ers
NOTE: Not the smoothest summer.
29. Josh McCown, Dolphins
30. Chris Redman, Falcons
31. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
32. Rex Grossman, Bears
33. Chad Pennington, FA
34. Kyle Orton, Bears
35. Matt Ryan, Falcons
36. Shaun Hill, 49ers
37. Joe Flacco, Ravens
38. Sage Rosenfels, Texans
39. Kyle Boller, Ravens
40. Brady Quinn, Browns
41. Kellen Clemens, Jets
42. Troy Smith, Ravens
43. Damon Huard, Chiefs

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
NOTE: Upside play, but LT is safer.
3. *Steven Jackson, Rams
4. Joseph Addai, Colts
5. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
6. Clinton Portis, Redskins
NOTE: Quietly led league in carries last year.
7. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
NOTE: Sophomore spike is coming.
8. Marion Barber, Cowboys
9. Frank Gore, 49ers
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
NOTE: He's legit; a wise investment by Pack.
12. Willis McGahee, Ravens
NOTE: Rice will push him.
13. Jamal Lewis, Browns
14. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
16. Reggie Bush, Saints
17. Michael Turner, Falcons
18. Thomas Jones, Jets
19. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
20. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
21. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
NOTE: Great vision, moves pile.
22. Willie Parker, Steelers
23. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
24. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
25. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
NOTE: Good shot at being this year's big thing.
26. Kevin Smith, Lions
27. LenDale White, Titans
28. Darren McFadden, Raiders
29. Selvin Young, Broncos
30. Matt Forte, Bears
31. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
NOTE: Nice story, but upside is limited.
32. Julius Jones, Seahawks
33. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
34. Ahman Green, Texans
35. Chester Taylor, Vikings
36. Chris Johnson, Titans
37. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
38. Justin Fargas, Raiders
39. Ray Rice, Ravens
40. Felix Jones, Cowboys
41. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
NOTE: Criminally underused by old staff.
42. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
43. Sammy Morris, Patriots
44. Pierre Thomas, Saints
NOTE: A backup with juice.
45. Fred Jackson, Bills
46. Chris Brown, Texans
47. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
48. Leon Washington, Jets
NOTE: Needs to be more involved.
49. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
50. Lorenzo Booker, Eagles
51. Kenny Watson, Bengals
52. Ladell Betts, Redskins
53. Brandon Jackson, Packers
NOTE: He's stepped up, but won't beat out Grant.
54. Tatum Bell, Lions
55. Deuce McAllister, Saints
56. Michael Pittman, Broncos
57. Michael Bush, Raiders
58. Derrick Ward, Giants
59. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
60. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
61. Kevin Jones, Bears
62. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
63. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
64. Adrian Peterson, Bears
65. Mike Hart, Colts
NOTE: Has an NFL mind, but is he fast and big enough?
66. Andre Hall, Broncos
67. Brian Leonard, Rams
68. Chris Perry, Bengals
69. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
70. Steve Slaton, Texans
71. Jason Wright, Browns
72. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
73. Chris Henry, Titans
74. Ron Dayne, Texans
75. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
76. Jerome Harrison, Browns
77. *Ryan Torain, Broncos
78. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
79. Aaron Stecker, Saints
80. Jesse Chatman, Jets

Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts
3. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
NOTE: Hedge your bets in Year Three.
4. Braylon Edwards, Browns
NOTE: Can beat you on every route.
5. Andre Johnson, Texans
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
7. Marques Colston, Saints
8. Chad Johnson, Bengals
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
10. Plaxico Burress, Giants
NOTE: He's jumped two levels since move to NY.
11. Torry Holt, Rams
12. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
13. *Steve Smith, Panthers
NOTE: Out the first two games (suspension).
14. Wes Welker, Patriots
15. Roy Williams, Lions
16. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
17. Greg Jennings, Packers
NOTE: Catch-and-run firecracker.
18. Roddy White, Falcons
NOTE: Produced with driftwood last year.
19. Calvin Johnson, Lions
20. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
NOTE: Favre should make him a star.
21. *Brandon Marshall, Broncos
NOTE: Million-dollar talent, but will he grow up?
22. Lee Evans, Bills
23. Hines Ward, Steelers
24. Laveranues Coles, Jets
25. Marvin Harrison, Colts
26. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
27. Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
28. Donald Driver, Packers
29. Chris Chambers, Chargers
NOTE: Miscast as a No. 1; fits better here.
30. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
31. Santana Moss, Redskins
32. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
33. Reggie Brown, Eagles
34. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
35. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
36. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
37. Nate Burleson, Seahawks
38. D.J. Hackett, Panthers
NOTE: Key audition early while Smith sits.
39. Isaac Bruce, 49ers
40. Reggie Williams, Jaguars
41. Ronald Curry, Raiders
42. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
43. Sidney Rice, Vikings
NOTE: Unreal talent, but can Jackson find him?
44. Justin Gage, Titans
45. Darrell Jackson, Broncos
46. Jerry Porter, Jaguars
47. Javon Walker, Raiders
NOTE: Is desire to play fading?
48. Bryant Johnson, 49ers
49. Drew Bennett, Rams
50. Devin Hester, Bears
51. Derrick Mason, Ravens
52. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
53. Donte Stallworth, Browns
NOTE: Role with 2007 Pats was vastly overrated.
54. Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
55. Marty Booker, Bears
56. Laurent Robinson, Falcons
57. Robert Meachem, Saints
NOTE: Making amends for lost season.
58. Mark Clayton, Ravens
59. Demetrius Williams, Ravens
60. Kevin Walter, Texans
61. Derek Hagan, Dolphins
NOTE: Someone has to catch their passes.
62. Amani Toomer, Giants
63. David Patten, Saints
64. Drew Carter, Raiders
65. Brandon Stokley, Broncos
66. Chad Jackson, Patriots
67. Ernest Wilford, Dolphins
68. *Deion Branch, Seahawks
69. Bobby Wade, Vikings
70. James Hardy, Bills
71. Ike Hilliard, Buccaneers

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, Cowboys
2. Kellen Winslow, Browns
3. *Antonio Gates, Chargers
NOTE: Might not be healthy until October.
4. Dallas Clark, Colts
5. Chris Cooley, Redskins
6. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
7. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
NOTE: It was time for a divorce.
8. Todd Heap, Ravens
9. Heath Miller, Steelers
NOTE: Roethlisberger likes big targets.
10. Owen Daniels, Texans
11. Vernon Davis, 49ers
12. Tony Scheffler, Broncos
13. Alge Crumpler, Titans
14. Donald Lee, Packers
15. Greg Olsen, Bears
16. L.J. Smith, Eagles
17. Zach Miller, Raiders
18. Ben Watson, Patriots
19. Dustin Keller, Jets
NOTE: Handy H-back will be factor right away.
20. Kevin Boss, Giants
21. Randy McMichael, Rams
22. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
NOTE: Has some third-year buzz.
23. Ben Utecht, Bengals
24. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
25. Alex Smith, Buccaneers
26. Desmond Clark, Bears
27. Leonard Pope, Cardinals
28. Jeff King, Panthers
29. David Martin, Dolphins
30. John Carlson, Seahawks
31. Chris Baker, Jets
32. Daniel Graham, Broncos
33. Robert Royal, Bills
34. Bo Scaife, Titans

Kicker
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys
2. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
NOTE: This year's sneaky breakout.
5. Mason Crosby, Packers
6. Rob Bironas, Titans
7. Shayne Graham, Bengals
8. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
9. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
NOTE: Was useless outside the 40 last season.
10. Josh Brown, Rams
11. David Akers, Eagles
12. Kris Brown, Texans
13. Phil Dawson, Browns
14. Robbie Gould, Bears
15. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
16. Mike Nugent, Jets
17. Jeff Reed, Steelers
NOTE: Hard to consistently beat the stadium.
18. Shaun Suisham, Redskins
19. Jason Hanson, Lions
20. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
21. Matt Stover, Ravens
22. John Kasay, Panthers
23. Rian Lindell, Bills
24. Matt Prater, Broncos
25. Jason Elam, Falcons
26. Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
27. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
28. Joe Nedney, 49ers
29. Olindo Mare, Seahawks
30. Jay Feely, Dolphins
31. Martin Gramatica, Saints
32. Billy Cundiff, Chiefs

Defense
1. Vikings
NOTE: Addition of Allen is almost unfair.
2. Chargers
3. Cowboys
4. Patriots
5. Giants
6. Jaguars
NOTE: Got the DLine help they needed.
7. Bears
NOTE: Bump them up if you get Hester's returns.
8. Ravens
9. Packers
10. Seahawks
11. Steelers
NOTE: Value doesn't match name brand.
12. Buccaneers
13. Eagles
14. Titans
15. Redskins
NOTE: Generally overrated, but Taylor makes them viable.
16. Bills
17. Texans
18. Colts
19. Raiders
20. Broncos
21. Panthers
22. Cardinals
NOTE: Some playmakers in the secondary.
23. Jets
24. Falcons
25. 49ers
26. Browns
27. Bengals
28. Rams
29. Chiefs
30. Lions
31. Saints
32. Dolphins

---

By David Ferris

We take a break from the 24-hour coverage of Brett Favre to discuss a few National League baseball players. Your Favre Update will resume in five minutes. Please stand by.

Pitchers

BUY

Mike Gonzalez, RP, Braves: Given that Atlanta has 52 wins, it's downright comical that the entire staff has just 15 saves, lowest in the majors. Let me use another word: fluke. Gonzalez is the last man standing at the end of the bullpen (Rafael Soriano just hit the DL for the third time), and he's capable of dominating if his teammates can get him a lead now and then (2.65 ERA, .215 average against, three walks, 20 strikeouts over 17 innings). Even if Atlanta continues to win about 45 percent of its games down the stretch, Gonzalez has a decent shot at 8 to 10 saves.

Chris Perez, RP, Cardinals: He's back in the mix after a productive month in the minors, and he'll be needed for high-leverage situations because the Redbirds can't trust Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Franklin right now. Perez recorded a five-out save Wednesday, but don't be surprised if he's working the ninth inning fairly soon -- he's long been considered this team's closer-in-waiting, and his upside is far greater than anyone else's in this bullpen. You'll hear Adam Wainwright's name mentioned as a possible ninth-inning option, but if Perez works out the next few weeks, Wainwright will slot where the Cardinals really want him -- in the rotation.

SELL

Scott Olsen, SP, Marlins: He's striking out less than five batters per nine innings, and his 3.87 ERA is as real as the Easter Bunny -- his component numbers suggest an ERA over 5. Olsen had his best turn of the season last week against Colorado (six scoreless, one hit allowed), so now is the best time to sell. You've got two days to work with before the Mets knock him around Saturday (Olsen's beaten them just once in 10 starts, allowing a .280 batting average and a 1.45 WHIP).

Jeff Karstens, SP, Pirates: Two snappy starts in Pittsburgh, but it's not going to last -- he's a fly-baller with a fastball that stops short of 90. Eventually the league will get a good look at his off-speed stuff and the results won't be pretty -- Karstens can't consistently miss bats.

HOLD

Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins: You'd like to see more ground balls, but his strikeout rate (7.4/9) pays the bills, and he's improving his control all the time. Just what the Marlins need, another right-handed ace who projects, when healthy, to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

Jorge Campillo, SP, Braves: He turns 30 on the weekend and he was unheralded before this season, so it's natural to be skeptical here. But opponents rave about his change-up and pitch sequencing, and heck, the guy's had just three bad starts out of 15. We'll keep running with the story; a 2.58 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this late in the season has to have some authenticity to it.

Batters

BUY

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: He needed to step up his game when Ray Durham hit town, and so far he's done just that (16 for 49, .510 slugging). Weeks remains a wild ride in the field, but the Brewers will live with that if his offensive game is clicking.

Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, Nationals: It's hard to say how much he'll hit right away, but the intriguing rookie is one of the fastest players in the majors, and the Nats will let him audition the leadoff spot the rest of the year. If you're set at power but could use a dash of speed, here's your guy -- he could easily swipe 10 to 15 bases the rest of the way.

SELL

Yunel Escobar, SS, Braves: He's batting .203 with no homers over the last month, a pretty good sign that the rotator cuff isn't all the way back. And forget him on the bases; he's just 2 of 7 on steal attempts this year. You need power or speed from every roster slot, unless we're talking about a batter well over .300. Escobar misses on all counts.

HOLD

Mike Cameron, OF, Brewers: It's easy to run away after you catch that puny .237 average, but Cameron has quietly been a plus-player in every other fantasy category of significance (17 homers, 10 steals, 42 runs, 47 RBIs over 77 games). And over the last month, he's tightened up his swing (.275/.373/.529). Whatever you paid in March, it looks like you made a profit on this perennially underrated vet.

---

By Michael Salfino

The trade deadline has passed and, for the second year in a row, activity was greater than most expected.

Last year, 17 teams were either leading their division or within seven games of the wild card. This year, 16 teams fit that description. While that means more potential buyers, it severely constricts the pool of sellers.

Of the 14 teams reasonably out of it, only the Pirates, the A's, the Reds, the Braves and the Indians seemed inclined to rebuild. Of course, many bad teams (like the Nationals) are bad because they don't have players that contending teams desire. Or their good players are young and inexpensive enough to be part of any future turnaround, and thus are not on the block.

The major buyers were the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Angels and the White Sox. The Marlins were rumored to be in the Manny Ramirez mix, but that was all smoke and no fire. Florida's young starters are all about to hit an innings wall and Ramirez would have done nothing to assuage that.

Interestingly, 1B Mark Teixeira (Angels) was traded near the deadline for the second year in a row -- something I can't recall happening to any other player of his stature. In the past two seasons, he's been shipped for disappointing catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (who can't adequately defend), rapidly ascending pitching prospect Neftali Perez, Futures Game shortstop and speed-meister Elvis Andrus, punch-and-judy 1B Casey Kotchman and low-grade closer prospect Stephen Marek, who is about to turn 25 in Double A.

Another trade broke the deadline mode as it involved two teams trying to stay in the wild-card race: the Yankees and the Tigers. In a straight-up challenge deal, the Yankees imported Ivan Rodriguez to replace the injured Jorge Posada at catcher while shipping out Kyle Farnsworth to be part of a closer committee or at least a highly leveraged reliever for Detroit. That trade is working out badly thus far for the Tigers, as Farnsworth has already spit the late-inning bit twice. This should not surprise anyone. Farnsworth has pitched up to the level of his radar-gun readings only for intermittent periods throughout his career, though one of those was for Detroit.

Let's try to project other players now toiling in new playing environments.

Buy

Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers: He's been on the warpath since LA acquired him, which should not surprise anyone given that he's arguably the best right-handed hitter of his generation. The power was intact in Boston and won't be hurt as much as many suspect by the move, given how Fenway tends to hurt power -- even from righties, given the height of the Green Monster.

Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates: Stat guys love him because of his plate discipline (37 walks, 14 Ks in 123 Triple-A at bats this year) and power potential. He'll get the chance to play every day in Pittsburgh, where he joins brother Adam. Expect the power to translate better then it did for the Dodgers, who yanked him in and out of the lineup.

John Meloan, P, Indians: Came over from the Dodgers in the trade for mediocre Casey Blake. Meloan's numbers this year are deceiving, as the Dodgers chose to have him start so he could work on his pitches. In 2007, he was a dominating closer-in-waiting (66 innings, 36 hits, 91 Ks). He's back in relief at Triple-A Buffalo and could be closing by the end of the month in Cleveland.

Hold

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Yankees: He'd declining offensively and defensively, but had been at such heights in both areas that he's still useful. Given that Jorge Posada was unable to throw even before returning and reinjuring his shoulder, the Yankees are stronger now at catcher than they have been all year.

Craig Hansen, P, Pirates: As we noted last week, he has a big-time heater. The results have badly lagged, though. His closing prospects appear dim given that Matt Capps is scheduled to return to the Pirates and handle the ninth inning within two weeks. But Capps not only had bursitis, but "internal rotation deficit," which sounds terrible even if it happened to your car, never mind your shoulder. If Capps lands back on the lift in the shop, don't be shocked.

Sell

Ken Griffey Jr., OF, White Sox: Chicago is crazy to live with his declining defense in center, as he wasn't even an average corner outfielder anymore. He's coming from a great park, so we can't boost his expected power, which has declined three straight years (measured by the percentage of fly balls that become homers).

Xavier Nady, OF, Yankees: Continues to live a charmed existence (.365 average on balls in play, average is .300 -- a figure he's bested in his career only once). In situations like this, I always look for a correction, at least to historic levels factoring in his new park, unkind to righty power hitters.

---

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 8/5
Next Update: 8/12

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. CC Sabathia, Brewers
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
NOTE: Most underrated stud in the AL.
8. Scott Kazmir, Rays
9. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
10. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: He's the Cy favorite, not K-Rod.
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
13. Justin Verlander, Tigers
14. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
15. Rich Harden, Cubs
16. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
17. John Lackey, Angels
18. James Shields, Rays
19. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
20. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Sell-high window closed now.
21. *Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
22. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
23. Matt Cain, Giants
24. Ben Sheets, Brewers
25. Ervin Santana, Angels
26. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
27. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
28. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
29. Ted Lilly, Cubs
30. John Danks, White Sox
31. Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Finally up; expect good, not great, numbers.
32. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
33. Jered Weaver, Angels
34. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
NOTE: A quality-start machine.
35. Jon Lester, Red Sox
36. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
37. Joe Saunders, Angels
38. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
39. Chris Young, Padres
40. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
41. Matt Garza, Rays
42. Manny Parra, Brewers
43. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
44. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
45. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
NOTE: He's dominated for two months.
46. Scott Baker, Twins
47. Gil Meche, Royals
48. Fausto Carmona, Indians
49. Kevin Slowey, Twins
50. Mike Mussina, Yankees
51. Zack Greinke, Royals
52. Aaron Cook, Rockies
NOTE: Coors doesn't throw him at all.
53. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
54. Oliver Perez, Mets
55. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
56. Paul Maholm, Pirates
57. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
58. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
59. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
60. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
61. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NOTE: Here to stay, but what's the IP cap?
62. Jorge Campillo, Braves
NOTE: A Cinderella story that's under-reported.
63. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
64. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
65. *Aaron Harang, Reds
66. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
67. *John Maine, Mets
68. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
69. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
70. Nick Blackburn, Twins
71. Chris Volstad, Marlins
72. Josh Johnson, Marlins
73. David Bush, Brewers
74. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
75. Scott Olsen, Marlins
76. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
77. Pedro Martinez, Mets
78. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
79. *David Price, Rays
80. Odalis Perez, Nationals
81. Glen Perkins, Twins
82. *Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
NOTE: Strikeout ace should arrive this week.
83. Dana Eveland, Athletics
84. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
85. Tim Redding, Nationals
86. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
87. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
88. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
89. Greg Maddux, Padres
90. Joe Blanton, Phillies
91. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
92. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
93. Edwin Jackson, Rays
94. Jon Garland, Angels
95. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
96. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
97. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
NOTE: No guarantee to help again in 2008.
98. David Purcey, Blue Jays
99. Johnny Cueto, Reds
100. Randy Wolf, Astros
NOTE: Why, Houston, why?
101. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
102. Brian Bannister, Royals
103. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
104. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
105. Sean Gallagher, Athletics
106. *Jose Contreras, White Sox
107. Ian Snell, Pirates
108. Luke Hochevar, Royals

Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
NOTE: Better peripherals than K-Rod.
3. *Mariano Rivera, Yankees
NOTE: See Joe Nathan.
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
5. Brad Lidge, Phillies
6. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: See Mariano Rivera; okay, we're piling on.
7. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Brian Wilson, Giants
10. *Kerry Wood, Cubs
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
14. Troy Percival, Rays
15. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
16. Salomon Torres, Brewers
17. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
18. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
19. George Sherrill, Orioles
20. J.J. Putz, Mariners
21. *Billy Wagner, Mets
22. Huston Street, Athletics
23. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
24. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
25. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
26. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
NOTE: Messed-up mechanics, tired arm.
27. Rafael Perez, Indians
NOTE: Has shot to beat out Kobayashi.
28. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
29. Kyle Farnsworth, Tigers
30. Aaron Heilman, Mets
31. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
33. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
NOTE: Back in form, but Wood returns this week.
33. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
NOTE: Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.
34. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
35. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
36. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
37. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
38. Tyler Yates, Pirates
39. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
NOTE: One of many needed with Wagner out.
40. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
41. Jerry Blevins, Athletics
NOTE: Might get some matchup saves.
42. John Grabow, Pirates
43. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
44. Heath Bell, Padres
45. Grant Balfour, Rays
46. *Joel Zumaya, Tigers
NOTE: Hurry up and heal, there's saves out there.
47. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
48. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
49. *Matt Capps, Pirates
50. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
51. Eddie Kunz, Mets
52. Frank Francisco, Rangers
NOTE: The second hedge, after Guardado.
53. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
54. *Todd Jones, Tigers
55. Dan Wheeler, Rays
56. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
57. Bob Howry, Cubs
58. Eric Gagne, Brewers
59. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
60. Jose Arredondo, Angels
61. Matt Thornton, White Sox
62. Scot Shields, Angels
63. Saul Rivera, Nationals
64. Blaine Boyer, Braves
65. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
66. J.P. Howell, Rays
67. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
68. Doug Brocail, Astros
69. Chad Durbin, Phillies
70. Ron Mahay, Royals
71. Mike Lincoln, Reds
72. David Weathers, Reds
73. Joe Nelson, Marlins
74. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
75. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
76. Damaso Marte, Yankees
77. Luis Ayala, Nationals
78. *Scott Linebrink, White Sox
79. *Chris Perez, Cardinals
80. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
81. Craig Hansen, Pirates

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By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 8/5
Next Update: 8/12

First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Angels
NOTE: He's even running in the O.C.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Howard, Phillies
5. Prince Fielder, Brewers
6. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
7. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
NOTE: Quietly raking in second half.
10. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
11. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
12. Carlos Pena, Rays
13. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
14. *Adam LaRoche, Pirates
15. James Loney, Dodgers
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Jason Giambi, Yankees
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Casey Kotchman, Braves
21. Jim Thome, White Sox
22. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
23. Kevin Millar, Orioles
24. *Travis Hafner, Indians
25. Paul Konerko, White Sox
26. *Todd Helton, Rockies

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3. Brandon Phillips, Reds
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NOTE: Might be toughest out in league right now.
7. *Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Kaz Matsui, Astros
10. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
11. Kelly Johnson, Braves
12. Placido Polanco, Tigers
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
14. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
15. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
NOTE: New leadoff man has jets.
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. Mark Ellis, Athletics
18. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
19. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
20. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
21. Jose Lopez, Mariners
22. Jeff Baker, Rockies
23. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
24. *Jerry Hairston, Reds
25. Nick Punto, Twins
26. *Edgar Renteria, Tigers
27. *Luis Castillo, Mets
28. *Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
29. Eugenio Velez, Giants
30. Clint Barmes, Rockies
31. Brendan Harris, Twins
32. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
33. Jamie Carroll, Indians
34. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. *Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
7. Miguel Tejada, Astros
8. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
NOTE: Bumped up in order, and hello, Coors.
9. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. *Cristian Guzman, Nationals
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
15. *Yunel Escobar, Braves
16. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
19. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
20. Erick Aybar, Angels
21. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
22. Jack Wilson, Pirates
23. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
24. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
25. David Eckstein, Blue Jays

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Evan Longoria, Rays
7. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
10. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
11. Chone Figgins, Angels
12. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
13. Chris Davis, Rangers
NOTE: With Blalock hurt, his ABs are fine.
14. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
16. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
20. Ty Wigginton, Astros
21. Ian Stewart, Rockies
NOTE: More time with Helton setback.
22. Alex Gordon, Royals
23. Willie Harris, Nationals
24. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
25. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
26. Josh Fields, White Sox
27. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
28. Ryan Garko, Indians
29. *Joe Crede, White Sox
30. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
31. *Pedro Feliz, Phillies
32. Jose Castillo, Giants

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Matt Holliday, Rockies
3. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
4. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Nate McLouth, Pirates
9. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
NOTE: He's been immense for two months.
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
12. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
13. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
14. Carlos Beltran, Mets
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Jason Bay, Red Sox
17. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
18. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
19. *Carl Crawford, Rays
20. Corey Hart, Brewers
21. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
22. Pat Burrell, Phillies
23. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
NOTE: Stolen bases have fallen way off.
24. Adam Dunn, Reds
25. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
26. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
27. Hunter Pence, Astros
28. Jay Bruce, Reds
29. Torii Hunter, Angels
30. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
31. Shane Victorino, Phillies
32. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
33. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
34. Johnny Damon, Yankees
35. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
36. Xavier Nady, Yankees
37. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
38. *Jose Guillen, Royals
39. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
40. Willy Taveras, Rockies
41. Nick Swisher, White Sox
42. David DeJesus, Royals
43. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
44. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Hasn't looked right for weeks.
45. *Adam Jones, Orioles
46. Randy Winn, Giants
47. *Luke Scott, Orioles
48. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
49. Aaron Rowand, Giants
50. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
51. David Murphy, Rangers
NOTE: Is league catching up to him?
52. Ken Griffey, White Sox
53. Marcus Thames, Tigers
54. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
55. Josh Willingham, Marlins
56. Juan Rivera, Angels
57. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
58. *Michael Bourn, Astros
59. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
60. Fred Lewis, Giants
61. Denard Span, Twins
NOTE: He's secured in leadoff spot.
62. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
63. Delmon Young, Twins
64. Mike Cameron, Brewers
65. Jack Cust, Athletics
66. Jason Kubel, Twins
67. Garret Anderson, Angels
68. Austin Kearns, Nationals
69. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
70. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
71. Scott Hairston, Padres
72. Chase Headley, Padres
73. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
74. Ben Francisco, Indians
75. Matt Joyce, Tigers
76. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
77. *Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
78. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
79. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
80. Brian Giles, Padres
81. Gregor Blanco, Braves
82. Jayson Werth, Phillies
NOTE: Deserves to play every day.
83. Fernando Tatis, Mets
84. Reed Johnson, Cubs
85. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
86. Bill Hall, Brewers
87. Jody Gerut, Padres
88. Mark Teahen, Royals
89. Brian Giles, Padres
90. Cody Ross, Marlins
91. Gary Matthews, Angels
92. Endy Chavez, Mets
93. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
94. John Bowker, Giants
95. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
96. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
97. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
98. Steve Pearce, Pirates
99. Ross Gload, Royals
100. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
101. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
102. Brandon Moss, Pirates
103. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers

Catchers
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
4. Geovany Soto, Cubs
5. Bengie Molina, Giants
6. Joe Mauer, Twins
7. Dioner Navarro, Rays
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. *Victor Martinez, Indians
NOTE: Might be back mid-month.
10. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
11. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Gerald Laird, Rangers
14. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
15. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
16. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
NOTE: Growth year, and it's not Coors inflated.
17. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
18. Jesus Flores, Nationals
19. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
20. John Buck, Royals
21. Jeff Clement, Mariners
22. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
23. Brandon Inge, Tigers
24. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
25. Jeff Mathis, Angels
26. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
27. Paul Bako, Reds
28. Chris Coste, Phillies
29. Jason Kendall, Brewers
30. *Mike Napoli, Angels
31. Miguel Olivo, Royals
32. Kenji Johjima, Mariners

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By Mark P. Stopa

With the first preseason game now behind us, it's time to get pumped about the upcoming NFL season. Here, I don't state the obvious (e.g. Panthers WR Steve Smith is a downgrade because of his two-game suspension or Brett Favre is an upgrade if he wins the starting job in Green Bay), but instead provide insights a bit more "under the radar."

To help put things in context, I provide each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, which is based on the results of hundreds of recent fantasy drafts, courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" during the preseason means I like the player more than the market. "Downgrades" are players the market likes more than it should. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars (ADP: 101): Jacksonville is a run-first team, and their lack of a go-to WR is far from ideal for a QB. But Garrard's 7.7 YPA last year was truly elite, and he did that in the same run-first offense they'll be using this year. Combine that with his incredible game-management skills (only 3 INTs last year), rushing ability, and the fact that this is his first training camp as the starter, and Garrard is clearly undervalued. His 16-game pace last year was 27 combined passing/rushing TDs. He should not be the 14th QB taken, nor should he be going two rounds after Eli Manning (ADP: 81) or Marc Bulger (ADP: 84).

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (ADP: 191): This just in: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are really good. This also just in: Matt Leinart, the Cardinals' rushing game, and the Cardinals' defense are not. Add that up and it's clear that Warner should not be the 24th QB off the board. Yes, he's not currently starting for the Cardinals. But go check out Warner's last eight games last year, where he threw for 21 TDs. For those of you who aren't math gurus, that projects to 42 TDs over a full season. How long do you think it will take the Cardinals to realize Warner is better than Leinart? I say three games, tops. Draft a reliable QB, then target Warner as a high-upside backup -- so you have little to lose and lots to gain.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (ADP: 180): Deuce McAllister is coming off of a torn ACL and Reggie Bush can't run between the tackles. Who does that leave in New Orleans for tough yards and TDs? Thomas. In his one start last year, Thomas racked up more than 100 yards rushing/receiving along with a score. When you are making those late-round speculative picks, I'd much rather choose Thomas than Maurice Morris (ADP: 146), among others. I'd even take Thomas ahead of McAllister (ADP: 103).

No Change

All Kickers: Raise your hand if you knew, at this time last year, that Nick Folk and Mason Crosby would be two of the top kickers in fantasy in 2007. Nobody -- that's what I thought. The fact that these guys came out of nowhere last year is yet more proof that waiting until the last round to take your fantasy kicker is not only the best strategy, it's the only strategy.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (ADP: 18): I'm not sure I'd spend a second-round pick on Manning, but my point in writing is to caution you not to overreact about his recent surgery or anything that he does, or does not do, in preseason. Since the Colts' offense is a rhythm offense, it might take him a game or two to get up to speed. Add in the fact that the Colts have an early bye and Manning might start slowly this year. But he should be fine over the course of the season. Either he or Romo (ADP: 20) should be the second QB off of the board.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers (ADP: 41): Obviously his value is greater with Favre at QB. But if you watched the Packers-Cowboys game last year, you may remember that Aaron Rodgers hooked up with Jennings a few times, including for a TD. Plus, Jennings is entering his third season, often the magical year for receivers. The uncertainty at QB in Green Bay has me concerned a bit, but I'd be just fine with Jennings as a second WR, which is right where he's going.

Downgrades

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts (ADP: 54): There is no way that Harrison should be the 18th WR taken in any draft. That means that somebody is counting on him to be their 2WR, a recipe for disaster. Not only is Harrison 35 and coming off an injury-plagued season, he is STILL not full speed because of that injury. Add in the fact that Tony Dungy is quick to rest his nicked-up stars, and I'd be shocked to see Harrison provide 2WR value this year. Among receivers I prefer over Harrison is his own teammate, Anthony Gonzalez (ADP: 88).

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (ADP: 10): Injury-prone? Check. Subpar offensive line? Check. Bad QB play? Check. Bad offense, limiting his goal-line touches? Check. Recently got a fat contract? Check. Playing on a rebuilding team? Check. Let's cut to the chase here -- there is no way that I would want LJ as my first-round pick. I much prefer Marshawn Lynch (ADP: 13) or Ryan Grant (ADP: 14), among others.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals (ADP: 40): Right now Edge is being taken as the 21st RB. I cannot possibly overstate how wrong I think it is for anyone to be relying on James as a 2RB. He is on the wrong side of 30, lacks burst, plays on a pass-first team and does not get goal-line carries. If you draft him as a starting running back, and wind up playing in your league's Toilet Bowl, consider yourself warned.

Michael Salfino contributed to this report.

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By Michael Salfino

When trying to assess which NFL quarterbacks are going to have the most productive scoring seasons in 2008, you need to look beyond the points they generated in 2008 and at the foundation for this performance - pass attempts and the yards averaged on each of them.

Another key component to how well a QB performs is a stat that I've devised called "Functional Arm Strenth" (FAS), which assesses performance only looking at passes that travel 11 to 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Of course, NFL QBs make longer throws, just not enough of them. While about 7 percent of all attempts are longer than 20 yards from scrimmage (again, air yards only; not run after catch), about 20 percent of attempts are this intermediate 11- to-20 yard passes. These are really the bread-and-butter distance throws in the modern passing game.

Last year, 13 of the top 16 QBs in TD pass percentage (of attempts), were better than the league average of 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA).

The outliers, those good at generating TD passes despite being handicapped by a less than average YPA were Drew Brees (Saints), Eli Manning (Giants) and Philip Rivers (Chargers). So, we immediately need to ask whether these guys are overrated when it comes to projecting 2008 performance.

Conversely, there are four QBs who weren't nearly as productive (at throwing TDs) as their YPA indicates they should have been: Matt Schaub (Texans), Jay Cutler (Broncos), David Garrard (Jaguars) and Jeff Garcia (Buccaneers). All averaged 7.46 YPA or better (anything about 7.5 or over is stellar).

What some QBs lack in quality (YPA), they make up for in quantity (attempts). But attempts often are a function more of playing time (mainly avoiding injury) and the score (bad teams throw more than good because they must play catch-up). We isolate these factors by considering attempts on a per-game basis and how often teams throw in the first and second quarters of games -- when the score is less likely to influence playcalling.

For example, Drew Brees posted a league-lapping 1,200 attempts (about
38 per game) since the Saints acquired him in 2006. He's only been sacked about once per game as a Saint, which gives him minimal injury risk. Eli Manning also is a big-time guy with attempts - 33 per game - while being dumped less than twice per contest, on average. The Giants, too, are more pass-happy than average on all first downs and during the first half of games.

Garcia and Garrard are both injury-prone and play on teams with offensive systems that severely limit attempts, so we're skeptical of their YPA translating as it normally does - especially for the aging Garcia.

Garrard, though, had the league's best arm strength measured by QB rating on our FAS (11- to 20-yard) throws. The other FAS leaders were Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Tony Romo (Cowboys), Donovan McNabb (Eagles) and Schaub. The worst (100 FAS attempts or more) were Kurt Warner (Cardinals), Peyton Manning (Colts), Jon Kitna (Lions), Brees and Eli Manning. Remember, Peyton Manning lost Marvin Harrison for most of last year, which reasonably caused Peyton's normally stellar performance here to decline.

Now let's use these stats to make some recommendations.

Buy

Jay Cutler, Broncos: The complete package - still young and developing, but already doing well above average in all of our key stats. His low first-down QB rating of 73.4 should get a big boost in '08 given his added starting experience.

David Garrard, Jaguars: Start with 18 TDs versus just three picks. He was seventh-best in TD percentage. If he stays healthy, he'll generate 25 to 30 TDs with his arm and legs, no matter how much the Jags prefer to run.

Matt Schaub, Texans: He's helped by having a super freak at WR in Andre Johnson, too big and fast for all defensive backs. Don't worry about Sage Rosenfels, who is too limited and mistake-prone (one pick every 20 attempts; one every 32 for Schaub).

Hold

Derek Anderson, Browns: He regressed in the second half of '07, as expected. But you don't fluke your way to 29 TD passes your first year as a starter. WR Braylon Edwards cannot be covered.

Sell

Matt Leinart, Cardinals: The weapons are top-shelf, but Leinart seems to move and think in slow motion. This leaves the door open for Warner (21 TD passes the last eight games) as the Cardinals fashion themselves as contenders in a weak division.

Jon Kitna, Lions: This mistake-prone mediocrity was productive thanks to passing guru Mike Martz, now in charge of the Niners offense. Kitna is 35 and the Lions' future is likely behind him on the depth chart.

Philip Rivers, Chargers: He's made a rapid recovery from a torn ACL, but 52 QBs had better YPAs on first down. Rivers also threw just four TDs on 25 attempts inside the opponent's five-yard line (half the league-average rate).

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By David Ferris

Players change teams, managers move around roles, injuries hit, some players stop hitting. There's a lot of movement in each and every fantasy week, and we're here to help you make sense of it.

Pitchers

BUY

Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Tigers: He's got a spotty track record in the ninth inning, though he did have a dynamic run closing for Detroit the last time he was in town. Jim Leyland doesn't have any other strong options for the final frame - Todd Jones is hurt, Fernando Rodney has no idea where the ball is going, Joel Zumaya is erratic and injury-prone - so by default it seems like Farnsworth will get his shot here, sooner or later.

Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins: If you've had him stashed on your bench all this time, come on, get happy. The Twins have finally accepted what everyone else has known for eons: Liriano belongs in the rotation, and Livan Hernandez isn't the answer. Liriano's gone 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA in his extended Triple-A tryout, and he's been electric of late, piling up 51 strikeouts in his last 41 innings. He's capable of being a Top 10 pitcher in the AL from here on out.

SELL

Brandon Morrow, RP, Mariners: He did an excellent job as a stand-in closer, but J.J. Putz is back in the swing of things now, and the M's want to transition Morrow into a starting role for 2009. Maybe that's a good thing down the road, but it collapses the fantasy stock for now.

HOLD

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians: His first staff off the DL was a complete and utter mess, but Carmona got the feel of his sinker back Thursday and had the Tigers pounding the ball into the ground. It's unrealistic to expect Carmona to get back to the 2007 level of production, but based on what we saw from him yesterday, take him off the restricted list and start him next week.

Batters

BUY

Jason Bay, OF, Red Sox: The switch to The Hub isn't going to send his numbers into the stratosphere - Pittsburgh's lineup has been nearly as productive as Boston's this year, and playing under the New England microscope brings pressures of its own. But Fenway Park is certainly a better fit for Bay than PNC Park, and he's capable of filling all five stat categories when his game is right. AL-only owners, it's time to empty that FAAB piggy bank (on Bay or Mark Teixeira, take your pick).

SELL

Michael Young, SS, Rangers: He wants to play through his broken ring finger, but consider he's 0 for 9 (with a handful of strikeouts) since the injury occurred. With Texas essentially out of the race, does it make sense to run Young out there if he's not 100 percent?

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: He's been in a terrible funk for the entire season, and that's not going to change from the bench - where you'll find Konerko more often than not going forward. The only way for the White Sox to get Ken Griffey into their lineup involves Nick Swisher moving to first and Konerko to the bench, and given the stats Konerko has put up through four months (.214 average, .349 slugging), maybe that's the right way to play it. Defense? Let the Chicago pitchers worry about that.

HOLD

Gerald Laird, C, Rangers: He was involved in a slew of trade rumors at the deadline, and a waiver move is always possible, but for the time being Laird is in Texas, catching most of the time, and getting a hit from one of the most offensive-friendly parks in the league. He's never going to be confused with Mike Piazza, but location makes up for a lot in this stat-chasing game we play.

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By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week August 4 ? 10 unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Kelly Shoppach, C, Indians: Despite the fact that his team has been downright atrocious this season, their backup catcher has shined over the past month, producing a .318 average with six homers and 14 RBI. He may stick behind the plate when Victor Martinez returns in August, with Martinez shifting to first to protect his surgically repaired elbow while pushing struggling Ryan Garko to the pine.

Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: He's struggled some since his recall from Triple A, but there are reasons to believe a turnaround is on the horizon. He's striking out a batter per inning in the majors, and has been the victim of bad luck with .373 average on balls in play (average is .300). He'll get a road start against the lowly Royals this week, and will look to gain some momentum heading into a weekend start against the White Sox. If you're looking for an upgrade to your pitching staff going forward, he could still be available on waivers, and is well worth even a mixed-league flyer.

Bench 'em

Mike Lowell, 3B, Red Sox: The last week has been rough on the Red Sox third baseman, with a batting average of .174 and only two runs batted in. He's had only five extra-base hits during the past month, and only one home run -- his most prolonged funk of the season. Some nice corner infield options can still be had on the waiver wire, so kick this guy to the curb.

Zach Greinke, SP, Royals: He's been a bit too hittable over the past month (1.57 WHIP) and that has led to an inflated ERA of 5.22. He's given up at least six hits in each of his last seven starts, and only gets one turn against the Twins this week, making him a risky play in mixed league formats.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Fernando Tatis, OF, Mets: Once nothing but a bum on the scrap heap, this former 30-homer bat is now the starting left fielder in New York, with the Mets failing to upgrade their outfield at the trade deadline. His .397 average over the past month, with six homers and 18 RBI, is something to get excited about, especially if you're looking to roster a hot bat for this upcoming scoring period.

Jair Jurrjens, SP, Braves: He brings a tidy 3.06 ERA and 6.61 K/9 into a two-start week against the Giants and the Diamondbacks, both on the road. He's been even more difficult to face on the road this season, evident by his 2.77 ERA away from home. Facing two offenses struggling to produce runs on a consistent basis makes this play even more enticing.

Bench 'em

Juan Pierre/Andre Ethier/Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: With Manny Ramirez coming over to the Dodgers at the trade deadline and Matt Kemp establishing himself as a budding superstar, it now means there is one spot left for these three outfielders to split. Ethier and Pierre have each had their moments this season, and Jones has been one of the worst offseason investments in recent memory. What they have in common is being part of a most dubious platoon situation, one sure to end badly for both the players and your fantasy team.

Joe Blanton, SP, Phillies: So far in his Phillies career, he's logged eight innings and given up seven earned runs, not quite what the organization had in mind after giving up a handful of top prospects for him. He'll get only one turn this week at home against the Pirates, whom he's never faced. The move to the National League is not as helpful as it seems when you factor in his old (pitcher-friendly) and new (hitter haven) parks.

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