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July 2008 Archives
5:00 PM Thu, Jul 31, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott  Email
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By David Ferris
Every day is deadline day in the fantasy world, as player values are constantly fluctuating, and it's important to be one step ahead of your rivals. Here's a peek at our clipboard as we bone up for the final third of the season.
Pitchers
BUY
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies: He's pounding the strike zone and keeping the ball in the park of late, two big keys with the young righty. Throw in improved command and smoother mechanics and you understand why Jimenez has been so effective over his last 10 starts (six wins, 2.07 ERA, .595 OPS against). Don't let the home park throw you here; Jimenez is a viable option even in mixed leagues for the final third of the season.
Chris Volstad, SP, Marlins: He's had one outstanding turn and two good ones since he joined the Florida rotation two weeks ago, and the Fish don't have any intention of putting the highly regarded 21-year-old on the sidelines now. Volstad should strike out just enough batters to be relevant for 5x5 owners, and the roomy-park environment of the NL East (save for Philadelphia) is another feather in his cap. Florida made a direct hit when they tabbed the big righty with the 16th overall pick in the 2005 draft.
SELL
Tim Hudson, SP, Braves: He's done for the year and probably headed for elbow surgery, which kills his keeper value for 2009. Anytime you see a pitcher consulting with noted Dr. James Andrews in Alabama, you know bad news is on the doorstep. It's been a lost summer in Atlanta, too, given how things played out with John Smoltz, Jeff Francoeur, and now, with Chipper Jones.
Tyler Yates, RP, Pirates: His control problems are a terrible fit for the ninth inning, but he got a save this week and stands atop the closer committee in Pittsburgh, so maybe you can flip Yates to a team desperate for one category. Keep in mind Matt Capps might be back in the mix before the end of August.
HOLD
Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers: He's always had the stuff to close, and the moxie; he just needed an opportunity. Broxton has run with the job since Takashi Saito went down, converting five straight save chances and making radar guns pop all over the West Coast. The Dodgers were wise to not chase a ninth-inning option at the deadline; Broxton is more than capable of being the game-over stopper every contending club wants for the final three outs.
Batters
BUY
Jeff Baker, 2B, Rockies: His sizzling bat (.325 with nine homers since June 1) has kept him in the game even with Troy Tulowitzki back -- Clint Hurdle pushed Clint Barmes to the bench. Baker carries three positions of eligibility in many leagues, and batting No. 2 in a lineup that gets half of its games in Colorado, that's a fantasy bonanza.
SELL
Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: He was relegated to the fourth-outfield slot earlier in the week, and that was before LA added Manny Ramirez at the end of the trading window. Say this for the Dodgers, they apparently understand the concept of a "sunk cost." Declining bat speed and a chunky physique have officially torpedoed Jones for 2008.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: The club has accepted his .223 average for most of the year, but Weeks' shaky glove might be the thing that forces him into a time-share with the newly-acquired Ray Durham. If nothing else, Durham will be playing at least once or twice a week, and that essentially kills Weeks as a mixed-league play, no matter how much he's running or contributing in other areas.
HOLD
Casey Blake, 3B, Dodgers: He's going to play every day, so his counting numbers will be fine, but there's nothing terribly exciting about a corner infielder with a career line of .266/.336/.447. The Dodgers knew Blake DeWitt wasn't a long-term fix at third, and Andy LaRoche is finally out of the picture, getting the change-of-organization he so desperately needed.
9:43 AM Wed, Jul 30, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
Due to very sophisticated technology now available at major-league ballparks, we're able to get accurate readings on pitch velocity to help us better answer the question, "How strongly does speed correlate to pitching success?"
The first thing that jumps out at you is that the hardest throwers are relievers. There are 13 pitchers who average 95 mph or more with their heaters and 11 of them are solely relievers while another, the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain, spent a good chunk of his season in the 'pen.
Teams aren't necessarily putting their most explosive arms in the 'pen, as it's obviously easier to throw harder for a 10-to-20-pitch sprint than for the approximately 100-pitch marathon.
The fastest average fastball is thrown by the Marlins' Matt Lindstrom (97.1 mph). Compare that to the fastest average fastball for a big league starter, 95 mph by the Mariners' Felix Hernandez.
Relievers who average faster than 95 mph after Lindstrom, in order of velocity, are: Brandon Morrow (Mariners), Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers), Brian Wilson (Giants), Manny Delcarmen (Red Sox), Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox), Craig Hansen (Red Sox), Jesus Colome (Nationals), Chamberlain, Matt Thorton (White Sox), Chris Perez (Cardinals, now back in the minors) and Joel Hanrahan (new Nationals closer).
Lindstrom has been ineffective this year, with a 1.51 ratio (baserunners per inning) and just 7.57 Ks/9 innings (nothing special for a reliever) versus 4.29 BB/9.
Morrow, Broxton, Wilson, Papelbon, Chamberlain, Thorton and Hanrahan have been able to translate this velocity into a K-rate of more than one batter per inning. This is most impressive from Chamberlain, who has maintained this rate as a starter. Again, striking out a batter per inning is not nearly as big a deal for a reliever as it is for a starter, because of the reliever's ability to throw maximum effort and to utilize his best pitches without fear that the batter will see them again that night.
After Hernandez, the hardest-throwing starters (all with average fastballs of at least 93 mph) are: Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays, injured), Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies), Josh Beckett (Red Sox), Ervin Santana (Angels), Tim Lincecum (Giants), A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays), CC Sabathia (Brewers), Edwin Jackson (Rays), Justin Verlander (Tigers), Johnny Cueto (Reds), Edinson Volquez (Reds), Matt Garza (Rays), Jeremy Guthrie (Orioles), Zack Greinke (Royals), Daniel Cabrera (Orioles), Mike Pelfrey (Mets) and Seth McClung (Brewers).
Of that list, those who translate velocity best into missing bats are Lincecum, Volquez and Burnett -- all better than one strikeout per inning. Just behind them, at more than 8 Ks/9 are Sabathia, Santana, Beckett, Hernandez, Cueto and Greinke.
But getting back to the key question, note that Chad Billingsley (Dodgers) is third in the majors with 9.51 Ks/9 and his fastball is about average (91.7 mph). Movement and effectiveness of secondary pitches is a separate matter. And those seem to be more important than pure heat when it comes to generating whiffs.
Just for fun, the slowest thrower with the best strikeout efficiency is Ted Lilly (Cubs). His fastball averages just 87 mph (14th slowest in the majors). Lilly, though, generates 8.31 Ks/9, 13th best in the bigs. Perhaps this is related to his lefty advantage.
This data is provided by my friends at Baseball Info Solutions and is readily available to the general public through the great FanGraphs.com site.
Now let's make some recommendations.
Buy
Justin Verlander, Tigers: The bad start over the weekend masks a really impressive stretch where results again were up to the level of his stuff. He has 60 Ks since the start of June against 24 BBs (six wins).
Brandon Morrow, Mariners: J.J. Putz blew another save last night and is not right. Morrow has been lights-out and the Mariners should either turn him into Jonathan Papelbon or begin his conversion back into a starter, the role he was drafted to fill. Seattle grabbed a premier college closer (Josh Fields) last month, but never seems to have a plan.
Hold
Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: He'll be a closer now for 10 years. Remember, Takashi Saito (elbow) is nearing age 40. Broxton allowed three earned runs since June 1 in 22 innings with just six non-intentional walks.
Mike Pelfrey, Mets: Never saw this coming, as Pelfrey seemed a one-note Charlie with the fastball that was too hittable. He's remained a ground-ball machine while cutting his walk rate by a third. Recent trends are even better: five starts in a row of seven or more innings, with 25 Ks, three BBs and just seven runs allowed.
Sell
Edinson Volquez, Reds: Downgrading him as he's been cuffed around a little his last two starts and there are two things to worry about here: The walk rate is too high (4.33/9) and the innings are piling up. Just 34 of his 177 innings in 2007 came in the high-stress, big-league environment. Why not lock in that big profit now?
9:28 AM Wed, Jul 30, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Angels
NOTE: Bump up, but he was already elite.
3. Ryan Howard, Phillies
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Routinely outstanding, but position is deep.
6. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
7. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
11. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
12. Carlos Pena, Rays
13. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
14. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Teams call, Arizona probably won't budge.
15. James Loney, Dodgers
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Jason Giambi, Yankees
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Casey Kotchman, Braves
21. Billy Butler. Royals
22. Chris Davis, Rangers
23. Jim Thome, White Sox
24. Paul Konerko, White Sox
25. *Adam LaRoche, Pirates
26. Kevin Millar, Orioles
27. Ryan Garko, Indians
28. *Travis Hafner, Indians
29. *Todd Helton, Rockies
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3. Brandon Phillips, Reds
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Robinson Cano, Yankees
NOTE: Second-half surges to be expected now.
6. Dan Uggla, Marlins
7. Howie Kendrick, Angels
8. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
9. Kaz Matsui, Astros
10. Alexei Casilla, Twins
NOTE: Unsung hero of the offense.
11. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Jeff Baker, Rockies
14. Placido Polanco, Tigers
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. *Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
NOTE: Was surging before injury fell.
19. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
20. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
21. Jose Lopez, Mariners
22. *Mark Ellis, Athletics
23. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
24. *Luis Castillo, Mets
25. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
26. Eugenio Velez, Giants
27. Clint Barmes, Rockies
28. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
29. *Jamie Carroll, Indians
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Derek Jeter, Yankees
5. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
6. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
8. *Michael Young, Rangers
NOTE: Wants to play through finger injury.
9. Miguel Tejada, Astros
10. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
13. *Cristian Guzman, Nationals
14. Mike Aviles, Royals
15. *Yunel Escobar, Braves
16. Jason Bartlett, Rays
17. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
18. *Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: Might be a week away.
19. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
20. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
21. Erick Aybar, Angels
22. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
23. Khalil Greene, Padres
24. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
25. *Edgar Renteria, Tigers
26. Jack Wilson, Pirates
27. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
28. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
29. Omar Vizquel, Giants
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers
NOTE: The upside here is unlimited.
3. David Wright, Mets
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Evan Longoria, Rays
7. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
10. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
11. Chone Figgins, Angels
12. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
13. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
14. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
15. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. Melvin Mora, Orioles
18. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Doesn't look fully healthy yet.
19. *Joe Crede, White Sox
20. Casey Blake, Dodgers
21. Ian Stewart, Rockies
NOTE: Deserves to play, but Helton complicates things.
22. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
23. Ty Wigginton, Astros
24. Brian Buscher, Twins
25. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
26. Alex Gordon, Royals
27. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
28. Josh Fields, White Sox
29. Jose Castillo, Giants
30. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
31. Andy Marte, Indians
32. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
33. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
3. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
5. Matt Holliday, Rockies
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Nate McLouth, Pirates
8. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
NOTE: He's been ridiculous for two months.
9. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
10. Nick Markakis, Orioles
11. Milton Bradley, Rangers
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
14. B.J. Upton, Rays
15. Corey Hart, Brewers
16. Jason Bay, Pirates
17. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
18. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
19. Adam Dunn, Reds
20. Carl Crawford, Rays
NOTE: Slumping with bat and on bases.
21. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
22. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
23. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
24. Pat Burrell, Phillies
25. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
26. Hunter Pence, Astros
27. Jay Bruce, Reds
28. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
29. Torii Hunter, Angels
30. Shane Victorino, Phillies
31. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
32. *Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
33. Johnny Damon, Yankees
NOTE: A wonderful producer when he's on field.
34. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
35. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
36. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
37. Adam Jones, Orioles
38. Randy Winn, Giants
39. *Jose Guillen, Royals
40. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
41. Nick Swisher, White Sox
42. Luke Scott, Orioles
43. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
44. Willy Taveras, Rockies
45. Xavier Nady, Yankees
46. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
47. David DeJesus, Royals
48. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
NOTE: One of many Mariners on the market.
49. Aaron Rowand, Giants
50. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
51. Marcus Thames, Tigers
52. Ken Griffey, Reds
53. Fred Lewis, Giants
54. David Murphy, Rangers
55. Josh Willingham, Marlins
56. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
57. Delmon Young, Twins
58. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Jig is just about up.
59. Juan Rivera, Angels
60. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
61. Denard Span, Twins
62. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
63. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
64. Scott Hairston, Padres
65. Chase Headley, Padres
66. Ben Francisco, Indians
67. Austin Kearns, Nationals
68. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
69. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
70. Bill Hall, Brewers
71. Mike Cameron, Brewers
72. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
73. Jack Cust, Athletics
NOTE: Welcome to the three true outcomes.
74. Jason Kubel, Twins
75. Garret Anderson, Angels
76. Matt Joyce, Tigers
77. *Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
78. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
79. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
80. Gregor Blanco, Braves
81. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
82. Reed Johnson, Cubs
83. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
84. Brian Giles, Padres
85. Jody Gerut, Padres
86. Jayson Werth, Phillies
NOTE: Key sleeper if Jenkins gets hurt.
87. Brian Giles, Padres
88. Cody Ross, Marlins
89. Fernando Tatis, Mets
90. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
91. Gary Matthews, Angels
92. Endy Chavez, Mets
93. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
94. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
95. Ross Gload, Royals
96. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
97. *Mark Teahen, Royals
98. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
99. Jonny Gomes, Rays
100. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
101. John Bowker, Giants
102. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
103. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
104. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
105. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
106. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
NOTE: Torre has made him the fourth outfielder.
Catcher
1. *Brian McCann, Braves
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: See what staying healthy can do?
4. Bengie Molina, Giants
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Joe Mauer, Twins
7. Dioner Navarro, Rays
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
10. *Victor Martinez, Indians
NOTE: Looks like 2-3 more weeks.
11. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
12. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
13. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
14. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
NOTE: A desert sleeper off the DL.
15. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
16. Jesus Flores, Nationals
17. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
18. Gerald Laird, Rangers
19. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
20. John Buck, Royals
21. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
22. Chris Coste, Phillies
23. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
24. Jeff Clement, Mariners
25. Jeff Mathis, Angels
26. Paul Bako, Reds
27. Jason Kendall, Brewers
28. Miguel Olivo, Royals
29. *Mike Napoli, Angels
30. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
31. Jose Molina, Yankees
9:24 AM Wed, Jul 30, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. CC Sabathia, Brewers
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
8. Scott Kazmir, Rays
9. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: It's his Cy Young at this point.
10. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Likes the desert and they like him.
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Justin Verlander, Tigers
13. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
14. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
15. Rich Harden, Cubs
16. John Lackey, Angels
17. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
18. James Shields, Rays
19. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
20. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Speed bumps for a few weeks now.
21. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
22. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
NOTE: Power sinker is clicking.
25. Matt Cain, Giants
26. Ervin Santana, Angels
27. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
28. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
29. Ted Lilly, Cubs
30. John Danks, White Sox
31. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
32. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
NOTE: Gives you something every time out.
33. Jered Weaver, Angels
34. Jon Lester, Red Sox
35. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
36. Manny Parra, Brewers
37. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
38. Matt Garza, Rays
39. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Minnesota, what are you waiting for?
40. Roy Oswalt, Astros
41. Joe Saunders, Angels
42. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
43. Scott Baker, Twins
NOTE: Strikeout arm, will get better.
44. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
45. Gil Meche, Royals
46. *Chris Young, Padres
47. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
48. Kevin Slowey, Twins
49. Mike Mussina, Yankees
50. Fausto Carmona, Indians
51. Zack Greinke, Royals
52. Aaron Cook, Rockies
53. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
54. Oliver Perez, Mets
55. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
56. *John Maine, Mets
57. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
58. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
59. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
60. Paul Maholm, Pirates
61. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
62. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
63. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
64. *Aaron Harang, Reds
65. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
66. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
NOTE: Better control has spurred resurgence.
67. Dana Eveland, Athletics
68. Tim Redding, Nationals
69. Chris Volstad, Marlins
70. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
71. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
72. Brett Myers, Phillies
73. Josh Johnson, Marlins
74. David Bush, Brewers
75. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
76. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
77. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
78. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
79. *David Price, Rays
80. Jorge Campillo, Braves
81. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
82. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
83. Scott Olsen, Marlins
84. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
85. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
86. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
87. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
88. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
89. Greg Maddux, Padres
NOTE: Went 14 winless before Monday night.
90. Edwin Jackson, Rays
91. Jon Garland, Angels
92. Brian Bannister, Royals
93. Sean Gallagher, Athletics
94. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
95. David Purcey, Blue Jays
NOTE: Post-hype guy has strikeout upside.
96. Johnny Cueto, Reds
97. Joe Blanton, Phillies
98. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
99. Odalis Perez, Nationals
100. Nick Blackburn, Twins
101. Glen Perkins, Twins
102. Aaron Laffey, Indians
103. *Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
104. *Andrew Miller, Marlins
105. John Lannan, Nationals
106. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
107. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
108. Chris Sampson, Astros
109. Ian Snell, Pirates
110. Kevin Correia, Giants
111. Paul Byrd, Indians
112. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
113. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
114. Randy Wolf, Astros
115. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
116. Greg Smith, Athletics
117. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
118. Garrett Olson, Orioles
119. Eric Stultz, Dodgers
120. Cha Seung Baek, Padres
NOTE: Park hides a lot of warts.
121. *Jose Contreras, White Sox
122. Luke Hochevar, Royals
123. Shawn Hill, Nationals
124. Jason Bergmann, Nationals
125. Jason Marquis, Cubs
126. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
127. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
128. Carlos Silva, Mariners
129. Barry Zito, Giants
130. Homer Bailey, Reds
131. *Tim Hudson, Braves
NOTE: Might be headed for TJ surgery.
Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
NOTE: Timing is a wonderful thing.
2. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
NOTE: Give it up, it's a career year.
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
5. Joakim Soria, Royals
6. Brad Lidge, Phillies
7. Billy Wagner, Mets
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. Brian Wilson, Giants
10. Jose Valverde, Astros
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. *Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: Blister not going away easily.
13. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
14. Troy Percival, Rays
15. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
16. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
17. Salomon Torres, Brewers
18. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
NOTE: He's got the stuff, but will LA make deal?
19. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
20. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
21. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
22. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
23. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
24. George Sherrill, Orioles
25. Huston Street, Athletics
26. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
27. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
28. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
NOTE: Don't expect a long shelf life.
29. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
30. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
31. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
32. John Grabow, Pirates
NOTE: One of three likely options.
33. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
34. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
35. Jim Johnson, Orioles
36. Todd Jones, Tigers
37. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
38. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
39. Tyler Yates, Pirates
40. Heath Bell, Padres
41. Grant Balfour, Rays
42. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
43. Eric Gagne, Brewers
44. Rafael Perez, Indians
45. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
46. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
47. Dan Wheeler, Rays
48. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
49. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
50. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
51. *Joey Devine, Athletics
52. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
53. Bob Howry, Cubs
54. Denny Bautista, Pirates
NOTE: Might be part of committee.
55. Jose Arredondo, Angels
56. Joe Nelson, Marlins
57. Frank Francisco, Rangers
NOTE: A sleeper if Wilson loses his way.
58. *Chris Perez, Cardinals
59. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
60. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
61. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
62. Matt Thornton, White Sox
NOTE: Nasty, but doesn't see the ninth.
63. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
64. Scot Shields, Angels
65. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
66. Saul Rivera, Nationals
67. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
68. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
69. J.P. Howell, Rays
70. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
71. Chad Durbin, Phillies
72. David Weathers, Reds
73. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
74. Damaso Marte, Yankees
75. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
76. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
77. David Robinson, Yankees
78. Will Ohman, Braves
79. Rafael Soriano, Braves
80. Blaine Boyer, Braves
81. Aaron Heilman, Mets
82. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
83. Doug Brocail, Astros
84. Ron Mahay, Royals
85. Mike Lincoln, Reds
86. Luis Ayala, Nationals
87. *Scott Linebrink, White Sox
88. Keith Foulke, Athletics
89. Manny Acosta, Braves
90. Alan Embree, Athletics
91. Matt Guerrier, Twins
92. Sean Green, Mariners
93. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
11:11 AM Sun, Jul 27, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week July 28 - Aug. 3, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles: He is finally swinging a hot bat after a season-long slump, batting .294 with 5 jacks and 25 runs batted in over the past month. Look for things to continue this week against the Yankees and the Mariners, against whom he already has a combined four homers in 15 games this season.
Armando Galarraga, SP, Tigers: This talented rookie faces the Indians and the Rays this week, both on the road, where he has posted an ERA of 2.69 in '08. He owns a very solid 3.75 ERA over the past month, but has only one win to show for it. With the Tigers surging, there is a great chance for some wins along with the generally solid ERA and WHIP.
Bench 'em
Chone Figgins, 2B, 3B, OF, Angels: Injuries have really derailed him his year, and his .188 average and three steals over the past month don't look like signs of a rebound. He'll face the Red Sox and the Yankees on the road this week, where he is hitting .250 so far this season. His value is in his speed and ability to create runs, and with that missing, he holds little more than name value.
Justin Duchscherer, SP, Athletics: He's been far too lucky this season, with a .210 average on balls in play (.300 is average), and is due for a serious regression in the second half. His major league-leading 1.87 ERA has been great, but he's already exceeded the most innings he's ever pitched in the majors (115 2/3 this season, previous high was 96 1/3) which should be cause for concern. He faces the Red Sox this week, with David Ortiz returning to an already imposing lineup. Sell him high.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies: Since returning to the majors on July 19, he's done nothing but hit, batting .550 with a homer and 11 RBI. He'll face the Pirates' weak staff, which he beat up on earlier in the year. This could be the last week he gets regular playing time, with Todd Helton returning from the DL shortly, so ride the hot streak while you can.
Doug Davis, SP, Diamondbacks: One of the season's more remarkable stories, this D-Backs hurler has come back strong from his bout with thyroid cancer, sporting a useful 7.42 K/9 ratio so far this season. He is a great match-up play this week, with a road start at pitcher friendly Petco Park to face the Padres, and then off to Dodger Stadium where he sports a career 1.40 ERA.
Bench 'em
Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros: His .213 batting average with zero home runs and two runs batted in over the past month is pitiful, numbers usually common for declining players around his "actual" age of 34. His average has gone down every month since March, and sits at .197 so far in July. He faces the Mets this week, who have been pitching lights out.
Randy Wolf, SP, Astros: The newly acquired Astros hurler has one start this week, against the scorching-hot Mets. That has "disaster" written all over it. He's the proud owner of a 6.63 ERA away from his former home of Petco Park, making his move to the launching pad that is Minute Maid Park a dubious sign of things to come. This is one name I would look to avoid for the rest of the season.
11:05 AM Sun, Jul 27, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
It's trading season for major-league clubs as we hit the end of July, but for the fantasy veterans out there, trading season really never ends. We know you're constantly recalibrating the worth of every player in our game, and the notes below will help you with that exercise.
Hitters
BUY
Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles: He's finally healthy again and a bunch of line drives have followed as a result (.359/.427/.640 line in July, along with 15 runs, five homers and 24 RBIs). The Baltimore lineup is deeper and more dangerous than many realize, and Mora is enjoying life in the middle of that mix.
Ryan Sweeney, OF, Athletics: You're not going to get much power here, but Sweeney can hit around .300, take a walk, and pick up a few steals here and there. The A's like him near the top of the lineup, and that makes Sweeney a viable play in most mixed leagues.
Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays: Toronto is finally letting him play and leaving him alone, and what do you know, there's a useful player here. Lind's July numbers signal that he's here to stay (.423 average, 14 runs, three homers, 17 RBIs), even when the Blue Jays have all hands on deck later in the season.
SELL
Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: He's been ordinary against righties, useless against lefties (.488 OPS), and there are still too many empty swings here (93 strikeouts). We're still excited about where Gordon might be next decade, but his second season doesn't look like an improvement over his debut year.
HOLD
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels: We've always seen him as a yearly .300 stick, but he's also adding power and speed to his game this month (.731 slugging, four steals). Don't let Kendrick's aggressive nature at the plate throw you off the scent; he's one of the few hitters in the league who can and will keep a nifty average without seeing a lot of pitches.
Pitchers
BUY
Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: He's re-invented himself as a submarine pitcher, and for the last two summers it's been a heck of a story for the 29-year-old. Ziegler isn't going to overpower hitters, but he keeps the ball in the park (no homers allowed at any level this year) and hasn't allowed a run since his call-up (covering 23.2 innings). The Athletics don't have a clear closer-in-waiting if Huston Street gets moved, so it's entirely possible Ziegler could be part of a committee later in the summer.
SELL
George Sherrill, RP, Orioles: He's been a nice fit as Baltimore's new stopper (29 saves), but the Orioles have to take a long-term approach here: Sherrill is 31, headed for a big raise, and never as marketable as he is right this second, on the eve of trading season. There's an excellent chance Sherrill will be moved to a contending club (as a set-up man), and if that happens, look for right-hander Jim Johnson to get the next shot at closing for Baltimore.
Armando Galarraga, SP, Tigers: It's been a fun ride for the Detroit surprise package, but his 3.27 ERA isn't supported by the component numbers at all. No one stays lucky forever, so let's sell while the market is still ripe - and while Galarraga's brilliant turn at Kansas City this week is still fresh in everyone's mind.
HOLD
A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays: He's been lights-out over his last three turns (21 strikeouts, just four runs allowed), and he might be cycling through the NL at this point next week; Toronto is definitely accepting offers. Have you seen the way C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden are toying with NL hitters right now? Any power pitcher who jumps over in midseason is looking at an immediate value spike.
8:34 AM Fri, Jul 25, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
You trade with your opponents, you trade with the waiver wire. For fantasy baseball owners it's basically a seven-month hitch of never-ending rankings and re-rankings, and our scouting notes below can help you keep the spreadsheet in order.
Batters
BUY
Mark DeRosa, Utility, Cubs: He's got a fly-under-the-radar offensive game, but there's no shame in 61 runs and 51 RBIs at this juncture of the year. DeRosa covers four positions in most leagues and he's tied to the top-scoring team in the NL, making him a perfect fit as your infield rover. Given the league-wide injury epidemic we've seen in 2008, the value of versatile types like DeRosa can't be understated.
Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals: No one is going to confuse him with Mike Piazza, but Molina makes consistent contact (just 17 strikeouts), plays two-thirds of the time, and actually helps your batting average -- a sneaky little thing to have in 2008, the year of the catching wasteland. Molina's excellent defense doesn't help you directly, but it keeps him on the field, and in Tony La Russa's good graces.
SELL
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: His free-swinging ways have caught up to him in July (.179, 23 strikeouts in 56 at-bats), and the Snakes can't be thrilled with his spotty glove at third base (20 errors). Someone in your group probably overrates the power categories, which means you can probably find a good package in exchange for the surface stats here.
HOLD
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets: This club has rediscovered its joie de vivre in recent weeks, and Reyes is a major reason why. Some knee-jerk fantasy pundits hammered Reyes after a slow start to 2008, but he's raised his game back to an elite level over the last 10 weeks (.321, 53 runs, nine homers, 24 steals). If you were to redraft from the entire NL pool today, Reyes would belong in the Top 5. A happy Reyes is a productive Reyes, and as he goes, so goes this offense.
Brad Hawpe, OF, Rockies: He battled a bad hamstring earlier in the year and fell into some bad habits at the plate, but that's all been ironed out now. With a .624 slugging percentage over the last six weeks and the backdrop of Colorado to cover him, it's a fun time to be invested in this Misty Mountain Hawpe.
Pitchers
BUY
Joel Hanrahan, RP, Nationals: He's got the stuff to close (9.8 K/9) and the Nats have endorsed him, it's just a matter of the team holding a ninth-inning lead now and again. Hanrahan's control has been spotty at times this year, but it's just a matter of trusting his stuff a little more -- even when he pours his fastball right over the heart of the plate, a lot of NL batters won't be able to catch up to it. Get your FAAB wallet ready.
SELL
Damaso Marte, RP, Pirates: He's been steady as the Matt Capps stand-in, but the rebuilding Pirates are getting plenty of offers for the veteran lefty, and surely one of them will be too good to pass up. If you can scare up a trade offer that treats Marte like a bona-fide closer, move now before the stock collapses. If and when Marte heads to a contending city, he'll be working in the seventh and eighth innings again. There's no clear closer-in-waiting behind Marte on the Pittsburgh depth chart, but by process of elimination John Grabow looks like the best spec play.
HOLD
Jon Rauch, RP, Diamondbacks: His fantasy value takes a hit today with the move to Arizona, but keep in mind Brandon Lyon is no sure thing -- and he's also on a one-year contract. Rauch has an excellent chance to be closing in the desert next year, and it wouldn't surprise us at all if he overtakes Lyon at some point in the dog days of August. Don't overreact to this week's trade and drop one of the best power arms in the NL; Things have a way of working themselves out.
11:12 AM Wed, Jul 23, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
Last week, some readers responded to my Justin Duchscherer "sell" and projection for a regression to average luck in having opposing balls in play (BIP) converted into outs by noting that his park, McAfee Stadium, seems to generally favor pitchers in this regard.
How can a ballpark have a bias in favor of converting BIP into outs? Yes, McAfee does have generous foul territory. And since any fielded batted ball, whether fair or foul, counts, this extra room in which to catch foul pops helps. But we're talking about a small number of plays here.
In 2007, more foul pops were caught in Oakland than anywhere else: 4.2 percent of BIP. The league average was 2.9 percent. So the impact of the extra foul territory on BIP average there seems small, about three points in '07.
This year, the A's pitchers allow a .259 average on balls in play at home, .293 on the road (average is usually about .300). Last year, home and away, it was .283 and .314. In '06, .299 and .307. And in '05, .269 and .277. I went back 10 years and the pattern holds every time.
Maybe what we're seeing is a classic home/road bias. In other words, players in all sports tend to perform better at home than on the road. If McAfee truly suppresses BIP, A's hitters should also do worse at home than on the road.
This year A's hitters are .288 on balls in play at home, .307 on the road. Prior years also favor A's hitters on the road, but more mildly. But in 2005, A's hitters actually had a higher BABIP at home (.286) than on the road (.277).
Some have speculated the reasons for this park factor are a crummy batter's eye in center, a slower-than-average infield (higher grass) and the generally colder air off the bay (colder air is more dense than warmer air and thus harder for a batted ball to travel through).
Of course, we don't have to explain it for it to be true. It is safe to assume that A's pitchers benefit from this park factor when at home. Keep in mind, Justin Duchscherer owners, that he's on the trading block, so that home cooking going forward might not be as nourishing to his stats.
Let's quickly look at some other park factors.
Scoring is up more than 20 percent this year at fields Wrigley (Cubs), Turner (Braves), Chase (Diamondbacks) and Coors (Rockies). It's down 24 percent at Dodger Stadium and more than 15 percent at Tropicana Field (Rays), PNC Park (Pirates) and Petco Park (Padres). Petco, by the way, has a similar effect as McAfee on BIP.
Homers are up 54 percent at Camden Yards (Orioles), 47 percent at U.S. Cellular (White Sox), 36 percent at Coors and 29 percent at Rangers Ballpark. They're also up 10 percent at McAfee, so Duchscherer's success at limiting homers (as a percentage of fly balls hit) remains unexplained and is likely to correct regardless of whether he's traded.
Homers are down more than 30 percent at Tropicana and Progressive Field (Indians); more than 20 percent at Dodger Stadium and PNC Park.
Some of these tendencies need to be tracked against prior years. For example, Rangers Ballpark was neutral for homers last year but favorable most others. All the other parks cited consistently favor hitters or pitchers as suggested by this year's stats, though obviously not to that precise degree.
So, generally, you want to buy hitters and sell pitchers in the hitter's parks above and vice versa with the pitcher's parks. Here's where you should start.
Buy
Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs: Hand injuries are always tricky for power hitters, but Soriano reported no lingering pain during his rehab stint, which ends this week. He had 15 homers in about 200 at-bats before getting hurt and will find the warm Wrigley air very inviting through August.
Paul Maholm, P, Pirates: Pitching in a park that suppresses runs and homers is a reason to double down on a pitcher. But they're tough to find in Pittsburgh. Maholm is the only one I can recommend, given his OK stuff (5.9 Ks/9) and excellent control (2.2 BBs/9).
Hold
B.J. Upton, OF, Rays: Striking out a ton, still, but now walking a ton, too. The homers are going to come; I'm convinced there's lightning in those wrists. And the bags (30) are a huge bonus.
Sell
Randy Wolf, P, Astros: Goes from a park that cuts scoring nearly 20 percent to one that boosts it more than 10 percent. Note the 6.63 road E.R.A. for Wolf (he had a 3.17 rate at Petco).
Rich Harden, P, Cubs: You can get top dollar now after his auspicious NL debut. But the change in park environment could hardly be worse and he throws so hard that he defies the physics of his rather slight anatomy. This makes yet another injury more likely.
Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: What a bust this year. Isn't running enough (23 bags) and the average has hit the skids, which makes sense when you look at his always poor plate discipline. His park, of course, doesn't help.
9:20 AM Wed, Jul 23, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/22
Next Update: 7/29
First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
NOTE: Bags push him over the cliff.
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. Prince Fielder, Brewers
7. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
NOTE: Might return on Friday.
11. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
12. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
13. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
14. Carlos Pena, Rays
15. Jason Giambi, Yankees
16. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
17. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
18. James Loney, Dodgers
19. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
20. Carlos Delgado, Mets
21. Joey Votto, Reds
22. Casey Kotchman, Angels
23. Paul Konerko, White Sox
24. Jim Thome, White Sox
25. Ryan Garko, Indians
26. *Travis Hafner, Indians
27. Kevin Millar, Orioles
28. Richie Sexson, Yankees
NOTE: Looks like a platoon player.
29. *Todd Helton, Rockies
Second Base
1. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
NOTE: Here comes the monster second half.
7. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
8. Alexei Casilla, Twins
9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
10. Howie Kendrick, Angels
11. Placido Polanco, Tigers
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. Kaz Matsui, Astros
NOTE: Handy in the leadoff spot.
15. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
16. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
NOTE: No plate discipline yet.
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
21. Jose Lopez, Mariners
22. *Luis Castillo, Mets
23. Clint Barmes, Rockies
24. Jeff Baker, Rockies
25. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
26. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
27. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
28. Jamie Carroll, Indians
29. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
32. Eugenio Velez, Giants
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
8. *Yunel Escobar, Braves
9. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
NOTE: Got a vote of confidence from Wedge.
10. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
12. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
13. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
14. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
15. *Edgar Renteria, Tigers
16. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
17. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
18. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
19. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
20. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
21. Khalil Greene, Padres
NOTE: Wonky back, lost season.
22. *Jerry Hairston, Reds
23. Erick Aybar, Angels
24. Jack Wilson, Pirates
25. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
28. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
29. Omar Vizquel, Giants
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Evan Longoria, Rays
7. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
11. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
NOTE: Redbirds got better of Rolen swap.
12. Joe Crede, White Sox
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
17. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: Hasn't progressed in second year.
18. Ty Wigginton, Astros
19. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
20. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
21. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
22. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
23. Melvin Mora, Orioles
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. Jose Castillo, Giants
26. Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
3. Matt Holliday, Rockies
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
5. Carlos Lee, Astros
6. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Carl Crawford, Rays
9. B.J. Upton, Rays
10. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
13. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
14. Milton Bradley, Rangers
15. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
NOTE: Starting to look bored.
16. *Jermaine Dye, White Sox
17. Adam Dunn, Reds
18. Corey Hart, Brewers
19. Jason Bay, Pirates
20. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
21. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
22. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
23. Torii Hunter, Angels
24. Nate McLouth, Pirates
25. Hunter Pence, Astros
26. Pat Burrell, Phillies
27. Jay Bruce, Reds
28. Jose Guillen, Royals
29. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
30. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
31. Shane Victorino, Phillies
32. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
33. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Will they ever drop him in order?
34. Johnny Damon, Yankees
35. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
36. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
37. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
38. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
39. Nick Swisher, White Sox
40. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
41. Aaron Rowand, Giants
42. Xavier Nady, Pirates
43. Adam Jones, Orioles
44. Randy Winn, Giants
45. David DeJesus, Royals
46. Luke Scott, Orioles
NOTE: Has a shot at 30-35 homers.
47. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
48. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
49. Willy Taveras, Rockies
50. David Murphy, Rangers
51. Ken Griffey, Reds
52. *Josh Willingham, Marlins
53. Scott Hairston, Padres
NOTE: More pop than you think.
54. Mike Cameron, Brewers
55. *Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
56. Juan Rivera, Angels
57. Chase Headley, Padres
58. Carlos Gomez, Twins
59. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
60. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
61. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
62. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
63. Ben Francisco, Indians
64. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
65. Michael Bourn, Astros
66. Jack Cust, Athletics
67. Mark Teahen, Royals
68. *Lastings Milledge, Nationals
69. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
70. Jason Kubel, Twins
71. Delmon Young, Twins
NOTE: Been sizzling since June 1.
72. Brian Giles, Padres
73. Cody Ross, Marlins
74. Garret Anderson, Angels
75. Fred Lewis, Giants
76. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
77. Bill Hall, Brewers
78. Brian Giles, Padres
79. Gregor Blanco, Braves
80. Fernando Tatis, Mets
81. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
82. Jonny Gomes, Rays
83. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
84. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
85. Joey Gathright, Royals
86. Eric Hinske, Rays
87. Jody Gerut, Padres
88. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
NOTE: Surgery ruled out, but very risky.
89. Gary Matthews, Angels
90. Jayson Werth, Phillies
91. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
92. Endy Chavez, Mets
93. Reed Johnson, Cubs
94. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
95. John Bowker, Giants
96. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
97. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
98. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
99. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
100. Austin Kearns, Nationals
101. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
2. Brian McCann, Braves
NOTE: Offseason eye-fix did the trick.
3. Joe Mauer, Twins
4. Geovany Soto, Cubs
5. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
6. Bengie Molina, Giants
7. Dioner Navarro, Rays
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
11. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
12. *Victor Martinez, Indians
NOTE: He's about 2-3 weeks away.
13. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
14. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
15. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
16. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Welcome to the drop-off season.
19. Jeff Clement, Mariners
20. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
21. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
22. Jeff Mathis, Angels
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Miguel Olivo, Royals
26. Chris Coste, Phillies
27. John Buck, Royals
28. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
29. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
30. *Mike Napoli, Angels
31. *Brandon Inge, Tigers
32. Jason Kendall, Brewers
33. Jose Molina, Yankees
9:17 AM Wed, Jul 23, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/22
Next Update: 7/29
Starters
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. CC Sabathia, Brewers
NOTE: Looks dominant in Brewer blue.
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Scott Kazmir, Rays
8. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
9. Edinson Volquez, Reds
10. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
11. Justin Verlander, Tigers
12. John Lackey, Angels
13. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
14. James Shields, Rays
15. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: Accept it, he's here to stay.
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
17. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
18. Rich Harden, Cubs
19. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
20. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
21. Tim Hudson, Braves
22. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
23. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
24. Ben Sheets, Brewers
25. Ted Lilly, Cubs
26. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
27. Matt Cain, Giants
28. Ervin Santana, Angels
29. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
30. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
31. John Danks, White Sox
NOTE: More legit than Floyd.
32. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
NOTE: Could be on the move.
33. Jered Weaver, Angels
34. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
35. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
NOTE: Reliable but ignored.
36. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
37. Jon Lester, Red Sox
38. Matt Garza, Rays
39. Manny Parra, Brewers
40. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
41. Joe Saunders, Angels
42. Kevin Slowey, Twins
43. Scott Baker, Twins
NOTE: Quietly becoming a stud.
44. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
45. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
46. Gil Meche, Royals
47. *Chris Young, Padres
48. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
49. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
NOTE: Might be back on weekend.
50. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
51. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
52. Zack Greinke, Royals
NOTE: At times control works against him.
53. John Maine, Mets
54. Aaron Cook, Rockies
55. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
56. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
57. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
NOTE: Breakout isn't far away.
58. Mike Mussina, Yankees
59. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
60. Dana Eveland, Athletics
61. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
62. Paul Maholm, Pirates
63. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
64. *Aaron Harang, Reds
65. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
66. Scott Olsen, Marlins
67. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
68. Josh Johnson, Marlins
69. David Bush, Brewers
70. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
71. Jorge Campillo, Braves
72. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
NOTE: Can't trust him for balance of 2008.
73. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
74. Randy Wolf, Astros
NOTE: Strange move from the Astros.
75. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
76. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
77. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
78. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
79. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
80. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
NOTE: Ground-ball specialist is a keeper.
81. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
82. *Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
83. Jose Contreras, White Sox
84. Nick Blackburn, Twins
85. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
86. Jon Garland, Angels
87. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
88. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
89. Aaron Laffey, Indians
90. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
91. Gio Gonzalez, Athletics
NOTE: Strikeout ace should get chance soon.
92. Greg Maddux, Padres
93. Johnny Cueto, Reds
94. Joe Blanton, Phillies
95. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
96. Tim Redding, Nationals
97. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
98. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
99. Brian Bannister, Royals
100. *David Price, Rays
101. Andrew Miller, Marlins
102. Greg Smith, Athletics
103. John Lannan, Nationals
104. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
105. Odalis Perez, Nationals
NOTE: More useful than you think.
106. Edwin Jackson, Rays
107. Ian Snell, Pirates
108. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
109. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
110. Garrett Olson, Orioles
111. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
112. Luke Hochevar, Royals
113. Shawn Hill, Nationals
114. Kevin Correia, Giants
115. Jason Bergmann, Nationals
116. Homer Bailey, Reds
117. Jason Marquis, Cubs
118. Eric Stultz, Dodgers
119. *Rich Hill, Cubs
120. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
121. Oliver Perez, Mets
122. Livan Hernandez, Twins
123. Braden Looper, Cardinals
124. Nate Robertson, Tigers
125. Paul Byrd, Indians
126. *Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
127. *Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
128. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
129. Barry Zito, Giants
130. *Jeff Suppan, Brewers
Relievers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
NOTE: Welcome to the lottery season.
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
5. *Billy Wagner, Mets
6. Brad Lidge, Phillies
7. Joakim Soria, Royals
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. *Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: Blister might mean DL trip.
10. Francisco Cordero, Reds
NOTE: Not really earning the contract.
11. Jose Valverde, Astros
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. Brian Wilson, Giants
14. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
15. George Sherrill, Orioles
NOTE: In trade rumors every day.
16. Huston Street, Athletics
17. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
18. Troy Percival, Rays
19. Todd Jones, Tigers
20. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
21. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
22. Salomon Torres, Brewers
23. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
24. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
25. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
26. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
27. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
28. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
29. Damaso Marte, Pirates
NOTE: Likely to get moved.
30. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
NOTE: Another trade candidate.
31. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
32. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
33. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
34. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
NOTE: Could get saves with Rauch out.
35. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Probably sets up in Arizona.
36. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
37. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
38. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
39. Luis Ayala, Nationals
40. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
41. Heath Bell, Padres
42. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
43. Grant Balfour, Rays
44. Scot Shields, Angels
45. *Duaner Sanchez, Mets
NOTE: Keep an eye on Wagner's health.
46. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
47. Saul Rivera, Nationals
48. Eric Gagne, Brewers
49. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
50. Dan Wheeler, Rays
51. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
52. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
53. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
NOTE: No guarantee Street hangs around.
54. Chris Perez, Cardinals
55. Blaine Boyer, Braves
56. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
57. *Aaron Heilman, Mets
58. J.P. Howell, Rays
59. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
60. John Grabow, Pirates
61. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
62. Tyler Yates, Pirates
63. Doug Brocail, Astros
64. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
65. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
66. Keith Foulke, Athletics
67. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
68. Manny Acosta, Braves
69. Chad Durbin, Phillies
70. Bob Howry, Cubs
71. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
72. Arthur Rhodes, Mariners
73. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
74. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
12:49 PM Fri, Jul 18, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
The American League keeps shipping talent over to the NL, which means player evaluation is more critical than ever in the Junior Circuit, especially on the mound.
Hitters
BUY
Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: We've seen better swings over the last month (.323 average, 18 RBIs), and Cano's notorious for picking up his game after the break (his OPS jumps 176 points in the second half). You probably can't buy him low in the Tri-State area, but in other areas of the country give it a shot.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians: He was dreadful with the Tribe earlier in the year, but a 34-game tune-up in the minors hit the spot (.326 average, four homers, two steals) and earned him a recall to Cleveland. Cabrera isn't going to make anyone forget Robby Alomar, but he was a useful player over the final quarter of 2007 and perhaps he'll be able to recapture that here. A decent longshot play for AL-only leagues.
SELL
Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: His free-swinging approach (96 strikeouts, 14 walks) brings a lot of batting-average risk to the equation, and Gomez has hit the skids on the bases (four steals over his last 39 games). Sell his season numbers to an owner who needs bags, lock in those profits now.
HOLD
Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers: Sure, he strikes out a lot, but the power is real (.655 slugging, six homers), and he's selective enough at the plate (6 walks in 58 at-bats). The Rangers want Davis in the everyday lineup, which is why Hank Blalock is sliding back to third base with Ramon Vazquez moving to the bench.
Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: He's still learning the strike zone, but the O's are happy with his progress; Jones is hitting .322 since the middle of May and Dave Tremblay is giving him a shot in the No. 2 position. No mater what happens to the three minor leaguers involved, Baltimore appears to have fleeced the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade (keep in mind the Orioles also got George Sherrill).
Pitchers
BUY
Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics: It hasn't been the smoothest ride in Triple-A (4.34 E.R.A., 1.36 WHIP), but his 117 strikeouts in 110 innings get your attention, and the roomy park by the bay is a pitcher's best friend. The Athletics hadn't reset their rotation as we went to press, but there's a good chance we'll see this intriguing left-hander recalled.
SELL
Jose Contreras, SP, White Sox: It's very difficult to make your living on the mound at U.S. Cellular Field, and Contreras has been even worse on the road this year (5.85 E.R.A., 1.60 WHIP). Memories of that great 2005 run keep getting hazier and hazier.
HOLD
Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers: Anyone who puts him on a "buy low" list is trying to sneak one by you -- Verlander turned around his season in the middle of May. Run the numbers on his last 12 starts and here's what you get: six wins, 2.73 E.R.A., 67 strikeouts, .209 batting-average against. He might wind up being the AL's best starter in the second half.
John Danks, SP, White Sox: The Rangers have made a number of mistakes trading young players in recent years, and Danks looks like another name for the list. He was good right out of the chute in 2008 and he's showing the ability to make adjustments; July is shaping up to be his best month yet (2.86 E.R.A., 0.82 WHIP, 25 strikeouts against just three walks). Danks has more than enough life on his fastball, but it's his change and curve that give him a chance to be a star in this league.
9:53 AM Fri, Jul 18, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week July 21 to 27, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Alexei Ramirez, 2B/OF, White Sox: Finally getting regular playing time, he's shined since taking over at second, posting a .341 batting average with three home runs and 11 runs batted in over the past month. He's also stolen seven bases this season, making him a nice speed threat for a middle infielder. Facing the Rangers and the Tigers this week, he is a good bet to continue swinging a hot bat.
Edwin Jackson, SP, Rays: He's been brilliant during the past month, posting an E.R.A. of 2.30, going six innings or more in five of his last six turns. He'll face the A's and the Royals this week, two teams that are among the least imposing offensive forces in the majors.
Bench 'em
Jorge Posada, C, Yankees: He just hasn't been the same since returning from shoulder problems, which is obvious considering his .221 batting average and zero home runs over the past month. He's also not happy with playing first base on occasion, feeling he is healthy enough to resume his full-time duties behind the plate. He'll face the Red Sox, who he is batting only .233 against this season, later this week.
Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles: The control issues are back, and the strikeout rate remains low. He's posted a 3.94 E.R.A. and 1.59 WHIP with 19 strikeouts over the past month, just enough to damage your ratios while not really helping you in Ks. He'll get his lone start this week against the Angels, who have already beaten him once this season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: Finally showing a bit of power, he has emerged as a steady outfield option in July, producing a .346 average along with four home runs. He'll be taking a trip to Coors Field this week, and already has two home runs against Rockies pitchers in '08, making him a strong play in mixed formats.
Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins: After watching his return from Tommy John surgery, I'm a believer in him having a strong second half for the Marlins. He pounded the zone with mid-90s fastballs, a few ticks higher than pre-surgery. He brings his power arsenal into matchups with the Braves and the Cubs this week. His strikeout potential and availability on the waiver wire make him an attractive option going forward.
Bench 'em
Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks: He's been a huge disappointment to owners this year hoping for a step forward, and his .226 average during the past month proves things haven't improved. To go along with the low average, he's only hit one home run and stolen one base since June 1. If he corrects his poor contact rate (74 percent) he could be special, but those in single-season leagues should find another option that can help now.
Aaron Cook, SP, Rockies: The All-Star sinkerballer has posted a 4.41 E.R.A. over the past month and only has one win to show for it. He'll be taking only one turn this week, on the road against the Reds. Proceed with caution here; in his only matchup against the Reds last season, he got hit around hard over 5 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs and 10 hits. He's a solid innings eater, but not this week.
8:07 AM Fri, Jul 18, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
I don't know about you, but I really wanted to see J.D. Drew and David Wright pitch Tuesday night. I'm also jonesing for some real baseball to watch and talk about, so let's rip open the notebook and take note of some movement in the stock market.
Pitchers
BUY
Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers: He's got the power package you look for in a closer (mid-90s heat, hard sinker, good slider, better than one strikeout per inning), and the Dodgers will cede him the ninth inning now that Takashi Saito (elbow) is on the shelf for at least six weeks. Does Broxton have the guile to get by when the stakes are highest? We're about to find out, but I wouldn't bet against him.
Chris Volstad, SP, Marlins: His electric first start in LA caught everyone's eye (8.2 innings, five hits, one run, one walk, six strikeouts), and while young pitching is far from the most reliable stock, Volstad does have a pedigree to take note of (he was the 16th overall pick three years ago). Let's see what the 6-7 righty can do working in Florida's spacious home park.
SELL
Jon Rauch, RP, Nationals: He's been super as Washington's ninth-inning man, a fact that hasn't been lost on the rest of the league; the Nats are getting daily calls about the 6-7 reliever. There's probably a better than 50-50 shot that Rauch will be pitching in middle relief for a contender by the beginning of next month.
HOLD
Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets: The light bulb has gone on over the last two months (6-0, 2.26 E.R.A.), as the young righty is keeping the ball on the ground and in the park (no homers), and even kicking in a few more strikeouts. Working in a big park with a surging club behind you.... Sounds like a good setup to us.
Hitters
BUY
Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies: He's offering a little bit of everything this month (.315, three homers, two steals), and keep in mind he's most often sandwiched between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in the dangerous Philadelphia lineup. Yahtzee. Victorino is one of the most underrated outfielders in the fantasy game right now, a five-category contributor who's for some reason under the radar.
SELL
Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins: Obviously his New York experience was a train wreck (three errors, three strikeouts, six LOB), and his last 32 games that count haven't been all that special either (.237/.336/.466, 43 strikeouts). Does Uggla have the short memory required to get back on track here? You might want to think about selling after his next homer or two.
Skip Schumaker, OF, Cardinals: He's in a .226 rut this month and lineup-jockeying Tony LaRussa hasn't been using him every day. That equals a sell ticket in mixed leagues; you need someone in the mix each and every night.
HOLD
Lance Berkman, OF, Astros: It's hard to expect him to keep that ridiculous .347/.443/.653 line cooking all season, but even if some of the hits stop falling in, Berkman should be a treat to fantasy owners. He's decided to become aggressive on the bases at age 32, picking up 15 bags in 17 attempts, and with 56 walks against 61 strikeouts, the batting average doesn't look like a fluke at all. Don't write off Berkman as a Minute Maid Myth, either -- he's carrying a 1.019 OPS and 11 homers on the road.
10:20 AM Wed, Jul 16, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Michael Salfino
Let's conclude our 2008 Fantasy Football Early Bird Special in advance of regular weekly coverage, beginning in August, by examining players who I think are overvalued based on their Average Draft Placement (ADP) in hundreds of summer drafts run by our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.
Don't forget to also reference our 2008 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, analysis of the impact players of 2008 and coaching/system changes of fantasy note so that you can hit the ground running in preparation for your upcoming drafts.
Starting at the top, at running back, let me be clear that I would gladly own Brian Westbrook (Eagles) and Steven Jackson (Rams). There's nothing wrong with either player. But they're both going ahead of Joseph Addai (Colts), and that's a mistake. This trend developed before world leaked of Peyton Manning's knee surgery that could possibly, but probably not, sideline him Week 1. Addai should be the No. 3 pick in every draft.
I'd pass on Clinton Portis (Redskins), ADP 11th overall. Always be wary of veteran players who rise dramatically from one season to the next. Portis was a fourth-round pick in most leagues last year. Has anything fundamentally changed about him or his situation to warrant a three-round bump? I don't think so. Ledell Betts isn't as much of a threat, presumably, and new head coach (and former Seahawks QB coach) Jim Zorn helped turn Shaun Alexander into a goal-line monster; but Alexander is a better inside runner than Portis, who is game but undersized and a year older with chronic shoulder woes.
You can't come out of the first three rounds with a QB given the greater need for running backs and wide receivers. So pass on Manning and Tony Romo at 17th and 20th, respectively. Again, I beat this into your heads every year, but every owner in a one-QB, 12-team league should go into the draft with the plan of taking two QBs ranked 10-15 on their cheat sheet during the middle rounds of their draft. And it usually pays to add one more for safety in the late rounds when hardly anyone else left has a pulse. This way, you are virtually guaranteed 25 TD passes from your QB starter (who you can mix and match), coming close enough to, say, Manning's value while having another quality running back or wide receiver that the owner opting for an early QB likely lacks.
I'm tired of waiting for (Saints RB) Reggie Bush to perform up to his college press clippings. The price hasn't slid close enough to performance, so I am going to pass anywhere near 30h overall (his ADP). I might reconsider if I'm in a points-per-catch league that also rewards distance scoring, but that's about 5 percent to 10 percent of leagues, tops.
Ronnie Brown is going 31st overall on average and I can't pay this price for a RB coming off a torn ACL on a bad team. Instead, grab Michael Turner (37th), who is at least definitely healthy and not playing for a couple of coaches (Tony Sparano and Dan Henning) who have relied on RB committees.
There's no denying (Rams WR) Torry Holt's Hall of Fame ability. But he's going in the same draft slot (32) as his age, struggled with knee and groin injuries last year, has a new offensive coordinator (Al Saunders, his former WR coach) who likes to emphasize the running game and his QB's health is always a question mark. You need more certainty when drafting a WR in the third round.
Edgerrin James generated very modest returns after I trashed him last year. But some people are taking him, out of desperation I'm sure, as high as the middle of the second round. On average, he's going 39th, which is still too high considering his age and declining skills. James had just seven TDs last year and again averaged less than four yards per carry. Better alternatives at the position who are being drafted later are Julius Jones (Seahawks, 47th), Matt Forte (Bears, 62nd), Kevin Smith (Lions, 74th) and Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers, 78th, by far the best value of this bunch).
Who knows what tomorrow, never mind September, will bring at the QB situation in Green Bay. But we know that the starter for now is Aaron Rodgers, who has no track record of which to speak. So how, then, can you take WR Greg Jennings in the fourth round? I assume that QBs make the receiver. There are exceptions (Terrell Owens, Randy Moss), but those are all-time guys. Greg Jennings is very likely not one of these rare breeds.
Jason Witten (Cowboys) seems like a reasonable play at his ADP of 43rd. But he's not a guy who can beat teams when they make an effort to stop him. His success depends on Terrell Owens' dominance, and Owens is nearing his mid 30s. If you take a TE early, he must be both a guy who is on the field on third downs and one who is physically dominant -- too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers. Witten doesn't fit this bill, though he's a solid pro and roommate of his QB, which always helps.
RB Rudi Johnson (Bengals) has one of the biggest ranges on the board, being drafted anywhere from 36th to 73rd. I'll take him in Round 5 or later, but only at gunpoint in Round 3. Kenny Watson was much better than Johnson last year and now Kenny Irons (ACL) is back and Chris Perry, a former first-round picks, still lurks (on crutches, presumably).
Similar to Johnson is RB Thomas Jones (Jets), being drafted 33rd to 70th. The late range is acceptable. But Leon Washington is more versatile and explosive, and should thus get an increased workload given his Westbrook-like potential.
10:09 AM Wed, Jul 16, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Michael Salfino
As baseball catches its collective breath during the All-Star break, let's try to spot the teams and players due for significant surges or dramatic declines.
There are two team stats we use to confirm the validity of current won-loss records. Net on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) merely takes the sum of the bases gained on offense and subtracts it from those allowed by the pitching/defense. I prefer it to net runs, the basis of Bill James' groundbreaking "Pythagorian" theorem, because net-OPS should be the foundation for run differential and is a bigger sample of data.
Typically, the range in net OPS is plus-.100 to minus-.100 (best net OPS team to worst). And this season is thus far playing close to that form. The Red Sox exit the break atop the net OPS leaderboard at plus-.109, the Nationals last at minus-.093.
Last year here, we used net OPS to identify the Cubs and the Yankees as the two teams most likely to surge. We also seriously doubted the Diamondbacks. While Chicago and New York did indeed dramatically surge and punch postseason tickets, Arizona continued to play well enough to finish with the best record in the National League. Still, those results seem encouraging enough to give this stat another look.
This year, the Braves are the biggest net OPS outlier: sixth-best in baseball at plus-.040. If net OPS perfectly correlated with record, they'd be on pace now for about 88 wins, not 77.
Even more lucky than the Braves are unlucky, says net OPS, are the Angels, 19th overall at minus-.010. That should put them on pace to win 79 games. Instead, their intangible/lucky ability to win close contests (36-18) has them on pace for 97 wins.
Net OPS says the division leaders in the AL right now should be the Red Sox, the White Sox and the A's, with the Rays as the wild card. The A's are six games back and arguably packing it in; witness the Rich Harden trade. And even if the Angels play about .500 the balance of the year (as net OPS predicts), they still win 92 games.
In the NL now, net OPS says the division leaders should be the Braves, the Cubs and the Diamondbacks, with the Phillies edging out the Mets as the wild card -- plus-.034 to plus-.032, about a half-game equivalent in the standings. The Phillies really do lead the Mets by exactly that margin -- but the Braves are 6.5 games back and rumored to be in dumping mode like the A's.
Keep one thing in mind if you're persuaded that net OPS has more predictive value than, say, current won-loss records. It only works if the teams in question continue to compile net baserunners and bases at about their current rates, which, while arguably likely, is not remotely guaranteed.
The same is true for players. The data we examine gives us more predictive power by providing larger sample sizes (bigger numbers) than do more conventional baseball statistics. But individual results can widely vary.
Buy
Freddie Sanchez, 2B, Pirates: Hitting .243 on balls in play (BIP) despite a robust 24-percent line-drive rate. When he hit .344 overall in 2006, his BIP average was .364 and his line-drive rate just slightly higher at 27.5 percent. Last year, his BIP was .328.
A.J. Burnett, P, Blue Jays: Typically disappoints due to injury, but the stats say he should have an appreciably better E.R.A. (3.69 instead of his 4.96 actual). The big reason is that 34 percent of his baserunners are scoring; last year, just 24 percent did.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: He's hit more than .320 with runners in scoring position each of the last three years. This year, .198. His BIP average is .261, it was .337 in '07. Note, though, that the power (rate of fly balls that become homers) has declined four straight years and is now below average.
Hold
Cliff Lee: I depart from many analysts in my belief that homers allowed are largely lucky, too. Give Lee an average rate of homers allowed on fly balls and his E.R.A. spikes more than a run to 3.16, which we'll still gladly take.
Sell
Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: Has a .370 BIP despite a modest 17.2 line-drive percentage (Ryan Ludwick leads the majors at 27.5 percent line drives). About 75 percent of line drives are hits. Also note that home runs don't count as balls in play.
Casey Blake, 3B, Indians: He's hitting .390 with runners in scoring position. Last year, .190. He's a career .262 hitter. Blake's near 100-RBI pace will decline to about 80 once this "clutchiness" corrects.
Justin Duchscherer, P, A's: His BIP average allowed is .210. Normalize that rate and his E.R.A. grows to 3.35. Then give him an average rate of homers on fly balls and it jumps all the way to 4.16 (my second-half projection).
9:33 AM Wed, Jul 16, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/15
Next Update: 7/22
First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. Prince Fielder, Brewers
7. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
11. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
12. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
13. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Quietly, one of his better years.
14. Jason Giambi, Yankees
15. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
16. Carlos Pena, Rays
17. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Joey Votto, Reds
21. Carlos Delgado, Mets
NOTE: He's turned it on of late.
22. Casey Kotchman, Angels
23. Ryan Garko, Indians
24. Paul Konerko, White Sox
25. *Travis Hafner, Indians
26. Jim Thome, White Sox
27. Kevin Millar, Orioles
28. *Todd Helton, Rockies
Second Base
1. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
9. Alexei Casilla, Twins
NOTE: Small-market surprise.
10. Placido Polanco, Tigers
11. Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Kaz Matsui, Astros
NOTE: Useful when he can stay healthy.
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Jeff Kent, Dodgers
22. *Luis Castillo, Mets
23. Clint Barmes, Rockies
24. Jeff Baker, Rockies
25. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
26. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
27. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
28. Jamie Carroll, Indians
29. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Yunel Escobar, Braves
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
NOTE: More selective of late.
10. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
14. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
15. *Edgar Renteria, Tigers
16. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
18. Khalil Greene, Padres
19. *Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: If only he could stay healthy.
20. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
21. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
22. Erick Aybar, Angels
23. *Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
24. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
25. Jack Wilson, Pirates
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
28. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
29. Omar Vizquel, Giants
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
7. Evan Longoria, Rays
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
11. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: Something's not right here.
12. Joe Crede, White Sox
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
20. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Melvin Mora, Orioles
23. Jose Castillo, Giants
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Might be able to go in second half.
26. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
NOTE: Maybe he'll return to New York someday.
3. Matt Holliday, Rockies
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
5. Carlos Lee, Astros
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles
7. Carl Crawford, Rays
8. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
9. B.J. Upton, Rays
10. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
13. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
14. Adam Dunn, Reds
15. Milton Bradley, Rangers
16. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
17. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
NOTE: He's been a summer stud for Pale Hose.
18. Corey Hart, Brewers
19. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
20. Torii Hunter, Angels
21. Hunter Pence, Astros
22. Jason Bay, Pirates
23. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
24. Nate McLouth, Pirates
25. Jay Bruce, Reds
26. Jose Guillen, Royals
27. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
28. *Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
29. Pat Burrell, Phillies
NOTE: No glove, but legit power.
30. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
31. Shane Victorino, Phillies
32. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
33. *Johnny Damon, Yankees
34. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
35. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
36. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
37. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
38. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
39. Carlos Gomez, Twins
40. Nick Swisher, White Sox
41. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
42. Aaron Rowand, Giants
43. Xavier Nady, Pirates
NOTE: How much longer is he in Pittsburgh?
44. Josh Willingham, Marlins
45. Randy Winn, Giants
46. David DeJesus, Royals
47. Adam Jones, Orioles
48. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
49. Luke Scott, Orioles
50. David Murphy, Rangers
51. Willy Taveras, Rockies
52. Ken Griffey, Reds
53. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
54. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Part-time these days, and lower in lineup.
55. Mike Cameron, Brewers
56. *Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
57. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
58. Chase Headley, Padres
59. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
60. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Welcome back, hacker.
61. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
62. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
63. Juan Rivera, Angels
64. Ben Francisco, Indians
65. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
66. Jack Cust, Athletics
67. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
68. Mark Teahen, Royals
69. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
70. *Lastings Milledge, Nationals
71. Jason Kubel, Twins
72. Brian Giles, Padres
73. Garret Anderson, Angels
74. Fred Lewis, Giants
75. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
76. Bill Hall, Brewers
77. Brian Giles, Padres
78. Cody Ross, Marlins
79. Delmon Young, Twins
80. Gregor Blanco, Braves
81. Fernando Tatis, Mets
NOTE: Is this a story with legs?
82. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
83. Jonny Gomes, Rays
84. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
85. Joey Gathright, Royals
86. Eric Hinske, Rays
87. Jody Gerut, Padres
88. Gary Matthews, Angels
NOTE: Benched in favor of Rivera.
89. Jayson Werth, Phillies
90. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
NOTE: Well, they keep playing him.
91. Endy Chavez, Mets
92. Reed Johnson, Cubs
93. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
94. John Bowker, Giants
95. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
96. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
97. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
98. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
99. Austin Kearns, Nationals
100. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
101. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
102. *Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
103. *Ryan Church, Mets
Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
NOTE: Give him a break, Joe.
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Dioner Navarro, Rays
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
11. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
12. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
13. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
14. *Victor Martinez, Indians
15. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Tricky offseason coming for him and club.
16. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jeff Clement, Mariners
19. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
20. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
21. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
22. Jeff Mathis, Angels
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Miguel Olivo, Royals
26. John Buck, Royals
27. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
28. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
29. *Mike Napoli, Angels
30. *Brandon Inge, Tigers
31. Jason Kendall, Brewers
9:23 AM Wed, Jul 16, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/15
Next Update: 7/22
Starting pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
NOTE: Skater-boy mechanics work for him.
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies
6. CC Sabathia, Brewers
7. Scott Kazmir, Rays
8. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: One of the toughest calls on board.
9. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
10. John Lackey, Angels
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
13. Justin Verlander, Tigers
14. James Shields, Rays
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Trust your stuff, big guy.
16. Cliff Lee, Indians
17. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
18. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
19. Tim Hudson, Braves
20. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
21. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
22. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. Ted Lilly, Cubs
25. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Learning to crawl.
26. *Felix Hernandez, Mariners
27. Rich Harden, Cubs
28. Ervin Santana, Angels
29. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
30. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
31. John Danks, White Sox
32. Jered Weaver, Angels
33. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Dominating in Triple-A, callup looks imminent.
34. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
35. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
36. Joe Saunders, Angels
37. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
38. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
39. Matt Garza, Rays
40. Jon Lester, Red Sox
41. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
42. John Maine, Mets
43. Manny Parra, Brewers
NOTE: He's putting it together.
44. Kevin Slowey, Twins
45. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
46. Gil Meche, Royals
47. *Chris Young, Padres
48. Zack Greinke, Royals
49. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
50. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
NOTE: Underrated fastball, plus two other pitches.
51. Scott Baker, Twins
52. *Aaron Harang, Reds
53. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
54. Mike Mussina, Yankees
55. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
56. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
57. Aaron Cook, Rockies
58. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
59. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
60. Dana Eveland, Athletics
61. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
62. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
63. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
64. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
65. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
66. Randy Wolf, Padres
67. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
68. Paul Maholm, Pirates
69. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
70. Scott Olsen, Marlins
NOTE: A strikeout spike would be nice.
71. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
72. Josh Johnson, Marlins
73. David Bush, Brewers
74. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
75. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
76. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
77. *Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
78. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
79. Jose Contreras, White Sox
80. Nick Blackburn, Twins
81. Jorge Campillo, Braves
82. Jon Garland, Angels
83. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
NOTE: Can't find a way around contact.
84. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
85. Aaron Laffey, Indians
86. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
87. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
88. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
89. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
90. Greg Maddux, Padres
91. Johnny Cueto, Reds
92. Brian Bannister, Royals
93. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
94. *David Price, Rays
NOTE: Highly-touted kid looks ready for audition.
95. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
96. Tim Redding, Senators
97. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
98. Andrew Miller, Marlins
99. Greg Smith, Athletics
100. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
101. Edwin Jackson, Rays
102. Ian Snell, Pirates
NOTE: Just write him off at this point.
103. Joe Blanton, Athletics
104. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
105. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Not consistent enough to trust.
106. Luke Hochevar, Royals
107. Kevin Correia, Giants
108. Garrett Olson, Orioles
109. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
110. John Lannan, Nationals
111. Shawn Hill, Senators
112. Jason Bergmann, Senators
113. Homer Bailey, Reds
114. Jason Marquis, Cubs
115. *Rich Hill, Cubs
116. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
117. Eric Stultz, Dodgers
118. Odalis Perez, Senators
119. Oliver Perez, Mets
120. Livan Hernandez, Twins
121. Braden Looper, Cardinals
122. Nate Robertson, Tigers
123. Paul Byrd, Indians
124. *Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
125. *Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
126. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
127. Miguel Batista, Mariners
128. Barry Zito, Giants
129. *Jeff Suppan, Brewers
Relief pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
NOTE: It's more the team than him, this time.
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
6. Kerry Wood, Cubs
7. Brad Lidge, Phillies
8. Joakim Soria, Royals
9. Francisco Cordero, Reds
10. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
11. *Bobby Jenks, White Sox
NOTE: Expected to return shortly.
12. Jose Valverde, Astros
13. Brian Wilson, Giants
14. George Sherrill, Orioles
15. Huston Street, Athletics
16. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
17. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
NOTE: Check the elbow, and this week's MRI.
18. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
19. Todd Jones, Tigers
20. *Troy Percival, Rays
21. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
22. Jon Rauch, Senators
23. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
24. Salomon Torres, Brewers
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
27. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
28. Damaso Marte, Pirates
29. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
30. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
NOTE: By default, he's the guy here.
31. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
NOTE: See Takashi Saito.
32. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
33. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
34. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
35. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
36. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
NOTE: Might get another shot if Fuentes is moved.
37. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
38. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
39. Heath Bell, Padres
40. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
41. Grant Balfour, Rays
42. Scot Shields, Angels
43. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
44. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
45. Dan Wheeler, Rays
46. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
47. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
48. Chris Perez, Cardinals
49. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
50. Blaine Boyer, Braves
51. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
52. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
NOTE: A Street deal is always possible.
53. J.P. Howell, Rays
54. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
55. John Grabow, Pirates
56. Doug Brocail, Astros
57. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
58. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
59. Keith Foulke, Athletics
60. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
61. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
62. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
63. Manny Acosta, Braves
64. Tom Gordon, Phillies
65. Arthur Rhodes, Mariners
66. Bob Howry, Cubs
67. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
68. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
3:03 PM Mon, Jul 14, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Michael Salfino
After unveiling our 2008 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet and profiling the impact players of 2008, let's continue surveying the fantasy landscape for you early birds by looking at coaching changes of fantasy note.
Coaching has a greater influence on performance in football than in any other sport, by a mile. It's not just who plays and in what situations, but the systems employed by offensive coordinators and the skill positions those systems emphasize via play-calling strategies.
In Washington, the coaching staff left town, replaced by Jim Zorn, a proponent of the West Coast offense as the former QB coach under Mike Holmgren. Sherman Smith, a former Titans RB coach, will call the plays. But Holmgren's variation of the attack is less dink-and-dunk and more downfield in nature -- Matt Hasselbeck is always among the league leaders in attempts traveling more than 10 yards from scrimmage in the air. Downfield passing is a strength of QB Jesse Campbell. The team put a lot of effort into upgrading a wide receiver corps that wasn't bad. They made a major play for Chad Johnson before drafting Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly with the 34th and 51st picks, respectively. That's a tell regarding their desire to implement a more explosive, downfield attack. Zorn/Holmgren called lots of running plays in close, generating easy TDs for Shaun Alexander. But this is not a strength for either Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts.
Baltimore's new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will look to emphasize the run, as he did successfully in San Diego and with futility in Miami. This bodes well for Willis McGahee. Joe Flacco projections are pure guesswork. While he has size and a big arm, he isn't athletic and played in a weak conference that didn't even have NCAA-caliber speed on defense. If he doesn't work out quickly, it's back to Kyle Boller.
New Niners offensive coordinator Mike Martz offers hope. But Alex Smith, coming off major surgery on his throwing shoulder, seems like an empty vessel. Shaun Hill raised some eyebrows, but his sample size is miniscule. Martz brought J.T. O'Sullivan over with him from Detroit, indicating his feelings for his backup QB of last year. Remember that Martz has made a career of turning other people's castoffs into fantasy value and sometimes even fantasy gold. More certain returns will come from RB Frank Gore, whom Martz wants to turn into a poor-man's Marshall Faulk. Martz likes to run the ball in close, especially out of multi-WR formations so that there is less of a scrum.
The party's over in Detroit. No more Martz means less downfield passing and less passing overall. Note that new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto is the team's former offensive line coach and that the team drafted a run blocking right tackle (Gosder Cherilus) and then traded up to take a running back (Kevin Smith) in the third round. Old-school football is back in Detroit, so take those 2007 passing stats and toss them into the circular file.
Al Saunders returns to St. Louis, minus Martz, with whom he served as receivers' coach during the glory days of the Greatest Show on Turf under Dick Vermeil. Saunders is from the Joe Gibbs/Don Coryell coaching tree that emphasizes pass protection above all things. Thus the Rams are likely to be much different than in recent years, keeping in as many men to block as are necessary. Marc Bulger thus has a better chance to stay healthy. Saunders, though, has been a run-oriented play caller since leaving the Rams -- first with the Chiefs and then with the Redskins. And he has a premium talent to work with in St. Louis in Steven Jackson. So expect the Rams to be more conservative than average on first downs, where they've historically had a significant pass bias.
I didn't like Norm Chow as Vince Young's offensive coordinator in Tennessee even when things were going well, because Chow didn't believe in having Young work out of that Texas shotgun on first and second down. Mike Heimerdinger is back with the Titans after stops in New York (Jets) and Denver. He'll try to recapture the dynamic passing game he had under a similarly mobile QB in Steve McNair. If you see shotgun looks on first and second downs this preseason, try to beat the market in landing Young. But until then, he's strictly a backup with upside. Heimerdinger eschewed RB committees in his Titans past, but that was when he was running with Eddie George. He favored them in Denver.
In Atlanta, new offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey did emphasize downfield, explosive passing in his heyday as Steelers offensive coordinator in the early part of the decade. And WR Roddy White is an emerging playmaker. So things aren't as hopeless there as they seem. The key is whether rookie QB Matt Ryan has the instinctiveness and moxie that can only be measured once we see it (or don't). Either way, look for Michael Turner, a prototypical Steelers-style power back, to be the focal point of whatever attack the team can muster.
Kansas City has hired Chan Gailey, out of the NFL since 2001. Gailey's Dolphins offenses then were very run-heavy even though they had the non-descript Lamar Smith at tailback. Larry Johnson should benefit from him the most, assuming he can stay healthy.
Miami's new offensive coordinator Dan Henning orchestrated some big-time passing attacks for both the Jets and Panthers. And head coach Tony Sparano had a big hand in the Cowboys' offensive success, which was predicated on an explosive passing game. But Miami's options at the position appear nondescript. Rookie Chad Henne is going to be given a chance to start in order to speed up his development in what's likely to be a wasted year. He's the proverbial "Box of Chocolates" long term; but should be expected to be a drag on the attack in 2008. Hanning and Sparano both have favored RB committees; so don't expect a true feature role from Ronnie Brown, coming off ACL surgery.
10:15 PM Fri, Jul 11, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week July 14 - 20, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Jason Kubel, OF, Twins: He's been on a tear the past month, posting a .324 batting average and clubbing six home runs. He'll be facing the mediocre Rangers staff in Arlington following the All-Star break, increasing the chances of fly balls leaving the yard.
Grant Balfour, RP, Rays: The Rays have used him in save situations since Troy Percival went down, and he responded with two saves last week. He's been great since joining the club, posting 31 strikeouts in just 19 2/3 innings this season. He'll be facing the Jays this week and their two top hurlers, meaning tight games and save opportunities are on the horizon in this short scoring period.
Bench 'em
Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: He's back in the AL, and back to being just an average middle-infield option. Posting an average of .222 during the past month with only three runs batted in has increased his availability on the waiver wire in mixed leagues, and news of a sore hamstring isn't helping his productivity. Facing the Orioles this week at Camden Yards could be troublesome for the Tigers shortstop; he's a career .227 hitter there.
Joe Blanton, SP, Athletics: This portly hurler has watched his E.R.A. balloon recently (7.22 during the past month), and in the process drive down his trade value. After the break, he'll face the Yankees, who have already beaten him once during the year. Last July, he pitched his way to an E.R.A. of 5.49 - about par for his '08 course. Don't be surprised if that trend continues this year.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates: Like clockwork, he's awakened from his spring slumber, posting a .329 batting average with four home runs during the past month. Note his .321 average with four home runs last July, another indicator his hot-hitting ways will continue. A trip to Colorado already booked following the break makes him a must-play this week.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies: This young gun is riding a recent surge, winning three of his last four starts, while posting an E.R.A. of 1.93 over the past month. He'll look to continue his winning ways at home against the Pirates, where he has posted an E.R.A. of 2.67 this season.
Bench 'em
Bengie Molina, C, Giants: Bengie has really been a dog during the past month, posting a .178 batting average and scoring only three runs over that span. He'll be facing the Brewers after the break, meaning a matchup with Ben Sheets and new hired gun CC Sabathia. Find a better option behind the dish.
Pedro Martinez, SP, Mets: He's been brutal on fantasy owners ratios during the past month, posting a 6.84 E.R.A. and 1.67 WHIP. Things aren't going well for you when the media is asking you if you plan on retiring after the season, something that this former great has had to deal with more frequently recently. He'll take his 7.45 road E.R.A. with him on a trip to hitter-friendly Cincinnati this week.
9:57 PM Fri, Jul 11, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
We've seen some big deals go down in the majors the last week or so (so long, CC; drop a line sometime, Rich), but in the fantasy world, franchise players come and go on a daily basis. Here's a look inside our current scouting notebook, focusing on the Junior Circuit.
Pitchers
BUY
Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins: His return can't be too far away - he's working on 20 straight scoreless innings in Triple-A, with 24 strikeouts. There's no reason why he can't be one of the AL's 10 best starters in the second half of the year, especially with CC Sabathia and Rich Harden out of the picture. If someone flaked on Liriano in your league, run to the waiver wire right now.
Sean Gallagher, SP, Athletics: The 22-year-old righty had some good days and some bad days with the Cubs, but don't look past his legit stuff (49 strikeouts in 58.2 innings). A bigger park, less pressure and a league that hasn't seen him yet, sounds like a good deal to us. Get that FAAB wallet ready for a bid.
SELL
R.A. Dickey, SP, Mariners: He's on a good run over his last four starts (26.1 innings, four runs), and knuckleballers are always fun to have around in theory, but can Dickey continue to get this lucky on balls in play? He's carrying 15 strikeouts against 12 walks over this span, which has to make you a little nervous. And when the knuckleball occasionally doesn't knuckle, balls fly over distant fences. Get out while the getting's good.
HOLD
A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays: Toronto figures to shift into a seller mode soon - the Jays lost Vernon Wells and Dustin McGowan this week - and Burnett is a power righty who could ring up ridiculous strikeout totals if he's shipped back to the NL. Mind you there's plenty of assumed risk that comes with Burnett and his physical history, but if you're not afraid to swing for the fences, there's a major upside here - especially if Burnett is moved far away from the rough-and-tumble AL East.
Batters
BUY
Juan Rivera, OF, Angels: He's back and swinging a mean bat (four hits and a homer in Arlington), while Gary Matthews and his bloated contract are relegated to the bench. Give Mike Scioscia credit for tinkering with a first-place lineup, and give Rivera a look if you're looking for some pop from the back of your outfield. He was a $15-20 stick just a couple of years back.
SELL
Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: He's no longer a factor on the bases (three steals), he's slugging under .300 since May 1, and he's hitting all of .254. Can you say "declining bat speed?" Better yet, can you say "do you need a shortstop?" to one of your unwitting opponents. Being in the AL doesn't automatically help everyone - keep in mind Renteria struggled for most of his one season in Boston. Now, he's clearly in the decline years, coming up on his 33rd birthday.
HOLD
Jeff Mathis, C, Angels: He's not going to help your average much and no one behind the backstop in Anaheim seems capable of throwing anyone out, but Mathis can offer a couple of things to you: power (he's gone deep six times in 147 at-bats) and playing time (he's needed on a nightly basis now that Mike Napoli has hit the DL).
7:52 AM Fri, Jul 11, 2008 | Permalink |
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David Ferris
Change is constant in the fantasy game, and we don't deal in brand names here, we deal with numbers. Here's a peek at a few portfolios you should be familiar with.
Hitters
BUY
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates: He's the poster child for hitting when the weather heats up; his spring numbers are so ugly for his career, we don't want to print them on a family-friendly website. The worm has turned over the last 25 games, however (.359/.430/.616), and LaRoche has a career .893 OPS for the second half. Get in on this now.
SELL
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks: He was great in April, mediocre in May and a total washout in June (.123 average, 25 strikeouts) as the book quickly circulated on the 20-year-old. He's not the first rookie to hit the wall quickly, but perhaps more minor-league seasoning is in order. Upton is also dealing with a sore rib cage at the moment, and the club can't rule out a DL trip.
Michael Bourn, OF, Astros: Cecil Cooper has turned him into a part-timer these days, and you can't blame the skipper -- Bourn has a skimpy .221/.276/.295 line tied to him right now. Bourn's 32 steals certainly have fantasy utility, but he's a dead spot in three categories, and even when he made it into Wednesday's lineup, he was buried in the No. 7 position. Wait until Bourn steals another base or two, then see if you can slide him to a bag-hungry opponent.
HOLD
Jeff Francouer, OF, Braves: He's back up with the big club after a short but productive time in the bush leagues. He's still a stellar fielder in right field and he's looked OK in his first two games at the plate (2 for 8, one homer). I wish we had a clearer sign that it's going to be better, but based on his career path, how can you not take a swing at the upside present?
Pitchers
BUY
Damaso Marte, RP, Pirates: A repeat stock from last week, but the saves chance is one of the most important things we do in this game. The Bucs haven't given Marte the full-on endorsement yet, but don't be tripped up -- he's got two saves this week and there's not much else behind him in John Russell's bullpen. If you've been taking a wait-see on the Matt Capps replacement, it's time to make a move -- go get Marte, even in mixed groups. The left-handed bias shouldn't work against him one bit, because he's been getting right-handers out all year (.202 batting-average against).
SELL
Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: His ailing forearm has him on the shelf for the moment, and the enigmatic Homer Bailey will get his spot Saturday. It's been a tricky run of starts for the Cincinnati rotation: Johnny Cueto has been hit or miss; Bronson Arroyo is a crafty righty at best who can't miss enough bats when he falls behind in the count; Edinson Volquez has shown plenty of dominant turns, but he's hit some speed bumps of late and still walks too many guys. Throw in a hitter-friendly park and a mercurial manager and this is one staff I'm fine to steer clear on, now that the price is bloated on Volquez's breakout.
HOLD
Jason Isringhausen, RP, Cardinals: How desperate did you say you were for saves? Ryan Franklin has found a way to eke out 12 saves in 14 opportunities, but he's clearly not a long-term solution here, and the Cards like the way Izzy has thrown the ball the last couple of weeks.
Chan Ho Park, SP/RP, Dodgers: He's got 23 strikeouts over his last three starts, and his relief work hasn't been that shabby either. Give the Dodgers credit for some thrifty work at the yard sale. Park won't get used enough to have mixed-league utility right now, but he should be deployed in any NL-only format at the moment.
9:52 AM Wed, Jul 09, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Michael Salfino
We've already seen two big interleague trades, with one team -- the Indians -- receiving one of the game's better prospects plus, and the other -- the A's -- getting a bunch of B-level guys.
That's the difference between trading the defending Cy Young Award winner pitching at the top of his game of late and dealing a precocious but always disabled hurler (Rich Harden) who half the league suspects has a shoulder hanging together by a thread.
The Indians' primary CC Sabathia haul, OF/1B/DH Matt LaPorta, rose up the preseason prospect rankings into the top 10 overall in many places, courtesy of his hot professional debut at Double-A Huntsville (20 homers, .987 OPS).
Let's look at other top prospects not yet in the majors to better understand whom teams long for as the major-league trading deadline approaches (July 31).
There's some debate whether Orioles C Matt Wieters or Rays lefty David Price is No. 1. The Pirates are reportedly asking for Price in return for OF Jason Bay, which the Rays rightfully refuse to consider.
Price, the 2007 overall No. 1 pick, wowed Alex Rodriguez this spring when both were rehabbing, then equally impressed no less a pitching authority than Pedro Martinez while the Mets hurler was rounding into shape in Single A. Price was recently promoted to Double-A Montgomery and should be in the Rays rotation come August, and maybe even sooner, if Scott Kazmir's recent slide is injury related.
The 6-6, 225-pound Price has a 1.68 E.R.A. in the minors and hasn't allowed a homer in 53.7 innings. He's a ground-ball specialist who throws 97 mph with three other major-league-caliber pitches. Good luck with that, hitters.
Wieters is a super-sized Johnny Bench, throwing out 40 percent of baserunners and mashing the ball consistently from both sides of the plate. He received the most money ever for an amateur talent after the Orioles took him No. 5 overall last year. The 6-5, 230-pounder is now in Double-A Bowie, where he's hitting .342 with a 1.023 OPS after hitting .345 with a 1.024 OPS in Single A. He's mashed 17 homers and struck out 53 times with 51 walks in 267 at-bats. He's ready for the majors right now, but the Orioles probably will wait until March.
There's a considerable drop after these two, at least in the eyes of most scouts.
Cardinals CF Colby Rasmus has been unable to sustain any success in Triple A, hitting .249 with a .752 OPS. Blue Jays DH Travis Snider, just 20, is striking out 30 percent of the time in Double A but is showing power considering his age. Scouts I've sampled believe Pirates CF Lawrence McCutcheon is overrated, as he swings from his heels too much without the power to show for it. Marlins CF Cameron Maybin is another young hitter struggling to make contact -- 28 percent K-rate in Double-A with an .818 OPS, impressive enough for a 21 year old.
While most think the second-best pitching prospect in baseball that we haven't yet seen in the majors is Tigers righty Rick Porcello, I think it's actually Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner -- 8-2 with a 1.77 E.R.A. and 91 Ks with 15 BBs in 81 innings for Low-A Augusta. Bumgarner is still 18.
Let's make some recommendations, for 2008 only, on rookies and other prospects who have already sampled the big leagues.
Buy
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Arizona Fall League scouts were split on his holier-than-thou attitude. But if you were this good, you'd be cocky, too. He's Ryan Braun with a Gold Glove.
Hold
Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: His dominance was way down in Triple A (8.9 K/9 vs. 12.8 there last year). And his walks were up. We can no longer say he's a sure-fire ace. But he's back in the BoSox rotation.
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: He's been exactly a league-average hitter so far (.782 OPS), impressive for a 21-year-old. The 22.6-percent line-drive rate and homers on 17.6 percent of flyballs are well above average. The K-rate (29 percent) is troubling.
Sell
Clayton Kershaw, P, Dodgers: He was spunky about getting sent down, which is good. But the Dodgers want the 20-year-old lefty to work on his control (5.6 walks per nine innings).
Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: His walk and K rates are progressing, but Gordon flashes below-average power (8.7 percent of fly balls clear the wall), not good when you are extreme at hitting the ball in the air.
Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: Maddenly inconsistent, this lefty has strung together two quality starts in a row only twice and never made it to three. Miller continues to seem unlucky in stranding baserunners (63 percent, average is 70 percent). His velocity decline is raising red flags: 91.2 mph fastball on average now, 94.3 mph in 2006.
8:38 AM Wed, Jul 09, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/8
Next Update: 7/15
First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. *Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NOTE: Hasn't looked right all season.
7. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
11. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
12. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
13. Jason Giambi, Yankees
NOTE: Can't deny the moustache man.
14. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
15. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
16. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
NOTE: Here comes the mid-season rally.
17. Carlos Pena, Rays
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Joey Votto, Reds
21. Carlos Delgado, Mets
22. Casey Kotchman, Angels
23. Ryan Garko, Indians
24. *Paul Konerko, White Sox
25. *Travis Hafner, Indians
26. Jim Thome, White Sox
27. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
28. Kevin Millar, Orioles
29. *Todd Helton, Rockies
Second Base
1. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
NOTE: Don't scoff, the numbers back it up.
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Alexei Casilla, Twins
11. Kelly Johnson, Braves
12. Howie Kendrick, Angels
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
NOTE: Sneaky contributor across the board.
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
18. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
21. Jose Lopez, Mariners
22. *Luis Castillo, Mets
23. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
24. Clint Barmes, Rockies
25. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
26. Jeff Baker, Rockies
NOTE: Needed regularly with Barmes sliding over.
27. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
28. Jamie Carroll, Indians
29. Brendan Harris, Twins
30. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Yunel Escobar, Braves
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
NOTE: Thriving in the No. slot.
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: Healthy again and batting leadoff.
14. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
15. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
18. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
19. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
20. Khalil Greene, Padres
21. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
22. *Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
23. Erick Aybar, Angels
24. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
25. Jack Wilson, Pirates
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
29. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. *Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
7. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: This year's Ryan Braun.
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Alex Gordon, Royals
11. Joe Crede, White Sox
12. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Lots of whiffs, but power is legit.
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
20. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Melvin Mora, Orioles
23. Jose Castillo, Giants
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
26. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: Forget the average; a four-category dominator.
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
3. Carl Crawford, Rays
4. Matt Holliday, Rockies
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: Sweet swing came back in June.
8. B.J. Upton, Rays
9. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
10. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
14. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
NOTE: Picking it up against lefties.
15. Adam Dunn, Reds
16. Milton Bradley, Rangers
17. Torii Hunter, Angels
18. Corey Hart, Brewers
19. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
21. Hunter Pence, Astros
22. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
23. Jason Bay, Pirates
24. Jay Bruce, Reds
25. Nate McLouth, Pirates
26. Jose Guillen, Royals
27. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
NOTE: Something is always missing here.
28. *Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
29. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
30. Carlos Gomez, Twins
31. Shane Victorino, Phillies
32. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
33. Pat Burrell, Phillies
34. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
35. *Johnny Damon, Yankees
36. Randy Winn, Giants
37. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
38. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
39. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
40. Nick Swisher, White Sox
41. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
42. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Outfield gridlock hurts the cause.
43. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
44. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
45. Aaron Rowand, Giants
46. Josh Willingham, Marlins
47. Xavier Nady, Pirates
48. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
49. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
50. Luke Scott, Orioles
51. David DeJesus, Royals
52. Ken Griffey, Reds
53. Adam Jones, Orioles
54. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
55. David Murphy, Rangers
56. Chase Headley, Padres
57. Mike Cameron, Brewers
58. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
59. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
60. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Losing time to Darin Erstad.
61. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
62. *Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Nicked-up, may not be full-timer.
63. Jack Cust, Athletics
64. Mark Teahen, Royals
65. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
66. *Lastings Milledge, Nationals
67. Gary Matthews, Angels
68. Ben Francisco, Indians
69. Brian Giles, Padres
70. Garret Anderson, Angels
71. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
72. Jason Kubel, Twins
73. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
74. Delmon Young, Twins
75. Joey Gathright, Royals
76. Eric Hinske, Rays
77. Brian Giles, Padres
78. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: Injury ruins his tremendous breakout.
79. Bill Hall, Brewers
80. Fred Lewis, Giants
81. Gregor Blanco, Braves
82. Cody Ross, Marlins
83. Jody Gerut, Padres
84. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
85. Jonny Gomes, Rays
86. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
87. *Jeff Francoeur, Braves
88. *Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
89. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
90. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
91. Jayson Werth, Phillies
92. Endy Chavez, Mets
93. John Bowker, Giants
94. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
95. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
96. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
97. *Reed Johnson, Cubs
98. Austin Kearns, Nationals
99. *Ryan Church, Mets
100. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
101. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: Big-league hacker worth price of admission.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Dioner Navarro, Rays
9. *Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
11. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
12. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
13. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Reputation got him to ASG.
14. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
15. *Victor Martinez, Indians
16. Jeff Clement, Mariners
17. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
18. Jesus Flores, Nationals
19. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
NOTE: Spotty glove costs him time.
20. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
21. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
22. Jeff Mathis, Angels
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
26. Miguel Olivo, Royals
27. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
28. John Buck, Royals
29. *Mike Napoli, Angels
30.Jason Kendall, Brewers
31. *Brandon Inge, Tigers
8:35 AM Wed, Jul 09, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/8
Next Update: 7/15
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
NOTE: Right now, he's the best in the league.
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Scott Kazmir, Rays
7. Edinson Volquez, Reds
8. CC Sabathia, Brewers
NOTE: He dropped the periods; how about dropping some pounds?
9. John Lackey, Angels
10. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
13. James Shields, Rays
14. Justin Verlander, Tigers
15. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
17. Cliff Lee, Indians
18. Tim Hudson, Braves
19. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
20. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
21. Ted Lilly, Cubs
22. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
NOTE: Results don't measure up to stuff.
23. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
24. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
25. Ben Sheets, Brewers
26. Matt Cain, Giants
27. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
28. *Felix Hernandez, Mariners
29. Ervin Santana, Angels
30. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
31. Jered Weaver, Angels
32. John Danks, White Sox
33. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
34. Rich Harden, Athletics
35. Matt Garza, Rays
36. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
NOTE: He'll be an asterisk player all season.
37. Joe Saunders, Angels
38. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
39. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
40. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
41. Jon Lester, Red Sox
42. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
43. Aaron Harang, Reds
44. Pedro Martinez, Mets
45. John Maine, Mets
46. Kevin Slowey, Twins
47. *Chris Young, Padres
48. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
49. Gil Meche, Royals
50. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: Might not be back until August.
51. Manny Parra, Brewers
52. Zack Greinke, Royals
53. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
54. Scott Baker, Twins
55. Mike Mussina, Yankees
56. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
57. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
58. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
59. Randy Wolf, Padres
60. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
61. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
62. Dana Eveland, Athletics
63. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
64. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
65. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
66. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
67. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
68. Aaron Cook, Rockies
69. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
70. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
71. Scott Olsen, Marlins
72. Paul Maholm, Pirates
73. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
74. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
NOTE: Has the butterfly dancing this summer.
75. Jose Contreras, White Sox
76. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
NOTE: Useful back-ender, but beware third time around league.
77. Andrew Miller, Marlins
78. Aaron Laffey, Indians
79. Greg Smith, Athletics
80. *Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
81. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
82. Jorge Campillo, Braves
83. Nick Blackburn, Twins
84. Jon Garland, Angels
85. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
NOTE: Better command last month.
86. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
87. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
88. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
89. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
90. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
91. Greg Maddux, Padres
92. Johnny Cueto, Reds
93. *Josh Johnson, Marlins
NOTE: Might be able to help down the stretch.
94. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
95. David Bush, Brewers
NOTE: He's rallying, but our memories are long.
96. Tim Redding, Senators
97. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
98. Brian Bannister, Royals
99. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
100. Edwin Jackson, Rays
101. Joe Blanton, Athletics
102. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
103. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
104. Luke Hochevar, Royals
105. Kevin Correia, Giants
106. Garrett Olson, Orioles
107. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
108. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
109. John Lannan, Nationals
110. Shawn Hill, Senators
111. Jason Bergmann, Senators
112. Jason Marquis, Cubs
113. *Rich Hill, Cubs
114. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
115. Eric Stultz, Dodgers
NOTE: Loved him in "Pulp Fiction."
116. *Ian Snell, Pirates
117. Odalis Perez, Senators
118. Oliver Perez, Mets
119. Livan Hernandez, Twins
120. Braden Looper, Cardinals
121. *Homer Bailey, Reds
NOTE: This is why you don't overrate prospects.
122. Nate Robertson, Tigers
123. *Jeff Suppan, Brewers
124. Paul Byrd, Indians
125. *Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
126. *Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
127. Miguel Batista, Mariners
128. Barry Zito, Giants
126. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
7. Kerry Wood, Cubs
8. Brad Lidge, Phillies
NOTE: Dominant three months earns extension.
9. *Bobby Jenks, White Sox
NOTE: Beware the sore back.
10. Joakim Soria, Royals
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. Jose Valverde, Astros
14. Brian Wilson, Giants
15. George Sherrill, Orioles
16. Huston Street, Athletics
17. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
18. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
19. *Troy Percival, Rays
20. Todd Jones, Tigers
21. Jon Rauch, Senators
22. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
23. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
24. Salomon Torres, Brewers
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
27. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
28. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
29. Damaso Marte, Pirates
NOTE: Steps in for injured Capps.
30. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
NOTE: Has a fair shot at leading post-Borowski committee.
31. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
32. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
33. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
34. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
35. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
36. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
37. Dan Wheeler, Rays
38. Heath Bell, Padres
39. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
40. Grant Balfour, Rays
NOTE: "Strike three" is more like it.
41. Scot Shields, Angels
42. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
43. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
44. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
45. Chris Perez, Cardinals
46. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
47. Blaine Boyer, Braves
48. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
49. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
50. J.P. Howell, Rays
51. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
52. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
53. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
NOTE: Quietly making a run of it as staff filler.
54. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
55. John Grabow, Pirates
56. Doug Brocail, Astros
57. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
58. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
59. Keith Foulke, Athletics
60. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
61. *Eddie Guardado, Rangers
62. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
63. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
64. Manny Acosta, Braves
65. Tom Gordon, Phillies
66. Bob Howry, Cubs
67. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
68. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
69. Arthur Rhodes, Mariners
70. *Chad Cordero, Senators
71. *Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Shoulder problem ends his season.
10:00 AM Tue, Jul 08, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
Last week on XM Radio, I was asked to predict which guys this year will be the fantasy football difference makers - players correlating closely with making the playoffs and winning league championships. I've expanded on this topic below.
Players are listed in the order they're currently being drafted in thousands of drafts hosted by MockDraftCentral.com. Their Average Draft Placement (ADP) is courtesy of our friends there and duly noted. We start with pick No. 25 because we don't really choose our first player as much as settle for whoever our fellow owners passed on when it comes time for us to kick off our draft (unless we're lucky enough to draft first, which may not be so lucky this year). The second round is also mostly a matter of slotting, given how draft rounds snake back and forth.
It's guys who are drafted in the third round and later who everyone has a chance to grab. Here are the players I think justify even a little reach relative to these ADPs.
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (ADP: 25th): Big, fast and with a very underrated QB in Matt Schaub running a Broncos-themed offense (courtesy of head coach and former Denver offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak). Johnson also has the luxury of an overrated but effective backup QB in Sage Rosenfels, just in case more misfortune befalls Schaub. Johnson's bugaboo has always been injury, and his knee was scoped in May. That's not enough to dissuade me from gambling on his prodigious talent (8 TDs in 9 games last year).
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons (ADP: 35th): People love the player but hate the situation. I've been a proponent of this thinking in the past. But I've revised it given how difficult it is to project which teams are going to be awful offensively. Witness the Browns last year. Until the season starts, we just don't know enough about new coaches, systems, offensive lineman and draft/free agency imports. Turner's ADP assumes either that the Falcons are going to have a moribund attack or that Jerious Norwood is going to siphon off considerable carries. Trust that the latter will not happen in their new Pittsburgh, power-running offense. And the former is less likely to be true than the market thinks.
Derek Anderson, QB, Browns (ADP: 50th): His second-half slide should have been expected because he was an inexperienced player at the most demanding position by a mile in all of team sports. Thus, his overall numbers tell the truer story, and that glass is way more than half full. The Browns return all offensive linemen and have maybe the best wide receiver in the sport in Braylon Edwards. So, after taking two RBs and two WRs, I'm sold in Round 5 for sure on his 30-TD upside.
Hines Ward, WR, Steelers (ADP: 56th): Productive last year considering he missed three games with torn PCL and MCL knee ligaments, Ward should be fully recovered after offseason surgery come September. He's only 32, not old for a receiver. Ward showed me enough last year to still assume he's the No. 1 target of Ben Roethlisberger.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (58th): When a team has two talented freak WRs like Detroit, always take the one the market thinks less of (Roy Williams' ADP is 46). Talented tandems come with a pop-up timer. Once the first one is taken, you know it's all clear to grab the one who's left over the next round or two. There's no way anyone can reasonably project any difference in these players. So cheaper becomes better.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears (ADP: 59th): Cedric Benson was waived. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner said of Forte, "He will definitely be an every-down back." Turner added, "[Forte's] got the hands." So, you add the catches and yards there to the goal-line duty (23 TDs for Tulane last year) and you get a first-round back in the fifth or sixth round. Even a fourth-round reach should generate considerable profit.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (ADP: 61st): Continuing with our theme of talented guys in offenses that have stunk. The consensus is the Chiefs attack will flounder again, given Brodie Croyle's poor debut as a starter last season. But Croyle impressed Chan Gailey in offseason workouts, and QBs sometimes make quantum leaps after early struggles. Croyle doesn't have to be good for Bowe to be a monster, just mediocre. Bowe averaged 8.5 yards per target (times thrown to) last year, more than Larry Fitzgerald and Edwards. His 2007 numbers were great for a rookie. He's cleared for take off.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers (ADP: 78th): Willie Parker is getting drafted way higher and I don't think there's any chance that Parker outperforms Mendenhall. Teams send us messages every April. Parker is out of Pittsburgh's plans. Mendenhall, a No. 1 draft pick, is in. Lots of things can change that: Mendenhall might not be savvy enough to pick up blitzes and Parker might change their minds with a great camp. But it pays to read the writing on the wall.
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts (ADP: 84th overall): I like Marvin Harrison at 63rd, too. The middle rounds of a draft are ultimately about upside. You can't swing for the fences on every pick, but must take some big hacks to win. Marvin Harrison might be chronically injured or return to form this year. I think it's more likely the former, but you're getting a four-round discount on him. Gonzalez is more likely to more greatly out-earn his draft slot, though. And Pick No. 84 is cheap given that's where donators in every league draft kickers and defenses.
Vernon Davis, TE, Niners (ADP: 94th): That's seventh among TEs. Davis has been all hype but could now turn into a solid play even in leagues where a tight end isn't required. Mike Martz knows how to wring all the talent out of a receiver and Davis is dripping with ability. I know the QB situation seems dire, but Martz has made chicken salad out of you know what before at the position.
Ryan Torain, RB, Broncos (ADP: 177th): I might be suffering from confirmation bias, but doesn't some backup Broncos back always generate a tidy profit? Some years, it's even league-changing. If Torain is No. 1 on the depth chart come draft day, pass and take Selvin Young (now being taken 66th on average). If someone aces you, settle for new Bronco Michael Pittman in the last round, because, with Mike Shanahan you never know.
2:16 PM Mon, Jul 07, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris and Chad Lawton
Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/ receiving yards).
In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.
Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE
NOTE: He's money, but let someone else chase 2007.
2. Peyton Manning, IND
3. Tony Romo, DAL
4. Drew Brees, NO
5. Carson Palmer, CIN
6. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
7. Donovan McNabb, PHI
8. Derek Anderson, CLE
NOTE: Has weapons, but second-half skid a concern.
9. Jay Cutler, DEN
NOTE: Everything in place for a breakout.
10. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
11. Eli Manning, NYG
12. David Garrard, JAX
13. Aaron Rodgers, GB
NOTE: More ready than most realize.
14. Jake Delhomme, CAR
15. Philip Rivers, SD
16. Matt Schaub, HOU
17. Marc Bulger, STL
18. Vince Young, TEN
19. Jon Kitna, DET
20. Jason Campbell, WAS
NOTE: Showed no pocket awareness last year.
21. Jeff Garcia, TB
22. Matt Leinart, ARI
NOTE: His wideouts can make anyone look good.
23. JaMarcus Russell, OAK
24. Alex Smith, SF
NOTE: Another challenge for Mad Scientist Martz.
25. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN
26. Trent Edwards, BUF
27. Rex Grossman, CHI
28. Kurt Warner, ARI
NOTE: Ballistic second half didn't get enough props.
29. Kellen Clemens, NYJ
30. Brodie Croyle, KC
31. Chris Redman, ATL
32. Troy Smith, BAL
33. Shaun Hill, SF
34. Brady Quinn, CLE
35. Matt Ryan, ATL
36. Josh McCown, MIA
37. Chad Pennington, NYJ
38. Sage Rosenfels, HOU
39. Kyle Orton, CHI
40. Joe Flacco, BAL
41. Kyle Boller, BAL
42. John Beck, MIA
Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN
NOTE: His upside against LT's floor.
3. Brian Westbrook, PHI
4. Joseph Addai, IND
5. Steven Jackson, STL
6. Frank Gore, SF
7. Marion Barber, DAL
8. Clinton Portis, WAS
NOTE: He's reinvented himself as Mr. Inside.
9. Marshawn Lynch, BUF
10. Ryan Grant, GB
NOTE: He's legit and we'll pay up.
11. Larry Johnson, KC
12. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
13. Willis McGahee, BAL
14. Jamal Lewis, CLE
15. Michael Turner, ATL
16. Laurence Maroney, NE
17. Reggie Bush, NO
18. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
19. Earnest Graham, TB
NOTE: Like the player, hate the gridlock.
20. Edgerrin James, ARI
21. Ronnie Brown, MIA
22. Thomas Jones, NYJ
NOTE: Ordinary back, upgraded line.
23. Darren McFadden, OAK
24. Jonathan Stewart, CAR
NOTE: Figures to be main guy on opening day.
25. Willie Parker, PIT
26. Matt Forte, CHI
NOTE: Talent is there, but line has fallen off.
27. LenDale White, TEN
28. Kevin Smith, DET
29. Rudi Johnson, CIN
NOTE: A very old 28.
30. Fred Taylor, JAX
31. Selvin Young, DEN
NOTE: Has home-run gear, but probably can't handle every-down work.
32. Julius Jones, SEA
33. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
34. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
35. Ahman Green, HOU
36. Chester Taylor, MIN
37. Justin Fargas, OAK
38. Jerious Norwood, ATL
39. Chris Brown, HOU
40. Felix Jones, DAL
41. Kenny Watson, CIN
42. Chris Johnson, TEN
43. Ladell Betts, WAS
NOTE: Mandatory backup for Portis owners.
44. Pierre Thomas, NO
45. Ryan Torain, DEN
NOTE: Let's not overrate the Shanahan effect.
46. Maurice Morris, SEA
47. Ricky Williams, MIA
48. Adrian Peterson, CHI
NOTE: Point and click carefully.
49. Ray Rice, BAL
50. Deuce McAllister, NO
NOTE: Get Pierre Thomas instead.
51. Warrick Dunn, TB
52. Michael Pittman, DEN
53. Tatum Bell, DET
54. Leon Washington, NYJ
55. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
56. Dominic Rhodes, IND
57. Sammy Morris, NE
58. Brandon Jackson, GB
59. Derrick Ward, NYG
60. T.J. Duckett, SEA
61. Steve Slaton, HOU
62. DeShaun Foster, SF
63. Chris Henry, TEN
64. Shaun Alexander, FA
NOTE: The tank is on empty.
65. Kevin Faulk, NE
66. Chris Perry, CIN
67. Travis Henry, FA
68. Darius Walker, HOU
Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss, NE
2. Reggie Wayne, IND
3. Braylon Edwards, CLE
NOTE: No one is better in the air.
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
5. Terrell Owens, DAL
NOTE: Seldom plays a full season.
6. Andre Johnson, HOU
NOTE: Could outscore them all if he stays healthy.
7. Steve Smith, CAR
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN
9. Marques Colston, NO
10. Chad Johnson, CIN
NOTE: Bunches his TDs, not necessarily a good thing.
11. Torry Holt, STL
12. Plaxico Burress, NYG
13. Anquan Boldin, ARI
14. Brandon Marshall, DEN
15. Wes Welker, NE
NOTE: Ideal setup presents cushy floor.
16. Roy Williams, DET
17. Santonio Holmes, PIT
18. Dwayne Bowe, KC
19. Lee Evans, BUF
20. Calvin Johnson, DET
21. Roddy White, ATL
22. Greg Jennings, GB
NOTE: Will miss Favre most of all.
23. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
24. Hines Ward, PIT
25. Laveranues Coles, NYJ
26. Chris Chambers, SD
27. Santana Moss, WAS
28. Donald Driver, GB
29. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
NOTE: Jump 10-12 spots if Harrison is iffy.
30. Joey Galloway, TB
31. Kevin Curtis, PHI
32. Bobby Engram, SEA
NOTE: Late-arriving career years don't repeat.
33. Javon Walker, OAK
34. Nate Burleson, SEA
35. Jerry Porter, JAX
36. Derrick Mason, BAL
37. Marvin Harrison, IND
38. Isaac Bruce, SF
39. Sidney Rice, MIN
40. Bernard Berrian, MIN
41. Reggie Brown, PHI
42. Patrick Crayton, DAL
43. D.J. Hackett, CAR
NOTE: Figures to play more than Muhammad.
44. Bryant Johnson, SF
45. Ted Ginn, MIA
46. Drew Bennett, STL
47. Justin Gage, TEN
48. Vincent Jackson, SD
49. Mark Clayton, BAL
50. Reggie Williams, JAX
51. Donte Stallworth, CLE
52. Laurent Robinson, ATL
NOTE: Emergence as rookie flew under the radar.
53. Darrell Jackson, DEN
54. Jabar Gaffney, NE
NOTE: Brady trusts him in key spots.
55. Ronald Curry, OAK
56. Arnaz Battle, SF
57. Mark Bradley, CHI
58. Ernest Wilford, MIA
59. David Patten, NO
60. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR
61. Marty Booker, CHI
62. Deion Branch, SEA
63. Devin Hester, CHI
NOTE: Worth a flyer if you count his return scores too.
64. James Jones, GB
65. Amani Toomer, NYG
66. Robert Meachem, NO
67. Roydell Williams, TEN
68. Kevin Walter, HOU
69. Demetrius Williams, BAL
70. Shaun McDonald, DET
71. Brandon Stokley, DEN
72. James Hardy, BUF
73. Steve Smith, NYG
74. Antwaan Randle El, WAS
75. Derek Hagan, MIA
76. Andre Davis, HOU
77. Chad Jackson, NE
78. Devin Thomas, WAS
79. Rashied Davis, CHI
80. Limas Sweed, PIT
NOTE: A good idea for 2009 or 2010.
81. Donnie Avery, STL
NOTE: A reach pick all the way.
82. Michael Jenkins, ATL
83. Nate Washington, PIT
84. Terry Glenn, DAL
Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL
2. Antonio Gates, SD
NOTE: He's coming off foot surgery.
3. Kellen Winslow, CLE
4. Chris Cooley, WAS
5. Tony Gonzalez, KC
6. Dallas Clark, IND
7. Todd Heap, BAL
NOTE: Does have a rapport with Boller.
8. Jeremy Shockey, NYG
9. Owen Daniels, HOU
10. Vernon Davis, SF
11. Tony Scheffler, DEN
NOTE: Part-timer, but handy at goal line.
12. Heath Miller, PIT
13. Ben Watson, NE
14. Alge Crumpler, TEN
15. Zach Miller, OAK
16. Greg Olsen, CHI
17. Donald Lee, GB
18. L.J. Smith, PHI
19. Marcedes Lewis, JAX
NOTE: A mild third-year spike is possible.
20. Randy McMichael, STL
21. Eric Johnson, NO
22. Desmond Clark, CHI
23. Ben Utecht, CIN
24. Alex Smith, TB
25. Kevin Boss, NYG
NOTE: Unsung hero down the stretch.
26. Jeff King, CAR
27. Anthony Fasano, MIA
28. Leonard Pope, ARI
29. John Carlson, SEA
30. Dustin Keller, NYJ
31. Bo Scaife, TEN
32. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
33. David Martin, MIA
34. Robert Royal, BUF
35. Chris Baker, NYJ
36. Ben Troupe, TB
37. David Thomas, NE
38. Jeb Putzier, SEA
39. Bryan Fletcher, IND
Placekicker
1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
NOTE: Will team trust him with more long kicks?
2. Nick Folk, DAL
3. Nate Kaeding, SD
NOTE: Can't go wrong with this setup.
4. Mason Crosby, GB
5. Shayne Graham, CIN
6. Josh Scobee, JAX
7. Phil Dawson, CLE
8. Adam Vinatieri, IND
NOTE: He's shaky outside the 40 these days.
9. Neil Rackers, ARI
10. Josh Brown, STL
11. David Akers, PHI
12. Jeff Reed, PIT
NOTE: He's legit, but home stadium hurts.
13. Ryan Longwell, MIN
14. Rob Bironas, TEN
15. Robbie Gould, CHI
16. Kris Brown, HOU
17. Lawrence Tynes, NYG
18. Jason Hanson, DET
19. John Kasay, CAR
20. Matt Stover, BAL
21. Mike Nugent, NYJ
22. Matt Bryant, TB
23. Brandon Coutu, SEA
24. Taylor Mehlhaff, NO
25. Rian Lindell, BUF
NOTE: See Jeff Reed.
26. Jason Elam, ATL
27. Shaun Suisham, WAS
28. Joe Nedney, SF
29. Matt Prater, DEN
30. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK
31. Connor Barth, KC
32. Jay Feely, MIA
Defense
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Minnesota Vikings
NOTE: Adding Jared Allen is almost unfair.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. New England Patriots
5. Dallas Cowboys
NOTE: For all his quirks, Pacman can play.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. New York Giants
8. Chicago Bears
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Seattle Seahawks
NOTE: Nasty unit at home.
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Philadelphia Eagles
15. Oakland Raiders
16. Tennessee Titans
17. Buffalo Bills
18. Houston Texans
19. Arizona Cardinals
NOTE: Some playmakers on the back level.
20. Carolina Panthers
21. Denver Broncos
22. Washington Redskins
23. New York Jets
24. Cleveland Browns
25. San Francisco 49ers
26. New Orleans Saints
27. Miami Dolphins
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Cincinnati Bengals
32. Atlanta Falcons
9:00 AM Fri, Jul 04, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week July 7 to 13, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Nick Swisher, OF, White Sox: Clearly looking like he doesn't want a return to manager Ozzie Guillen's doghouse, the slugger has really turned it up recently at the dish, clubbing three home runs and driving in 10 runs over the last week. This was the kind of performance fantasy owners hoped for when he came to Chicago in an off-season deal for a handful of top prospects. He has the opportunity to feast on the Rangers' pitching staff this coming week.
Dana Eveland, SP, Athletics: Although he still struggles at times with control, Eveland has been brilliant over the past month -- posting a 2.97 E.R.A. and two victories. He faces the Angels and the dismal Mariners this week, both at home, where he is 4-2 with a 2.84 E.R.A. He's looking more and more like another Billy Beane steal with each trip he takes to the mound.
Bench 'em
Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: Now in a full downward spiral, the "Melkman" has gotten two hits over his last 23 at-bats, and has produced zero runs during that span. The Yankees just called up punchless speedster Brett Gardner from Triple A, and he could soon be roaming center field if he gets off to a hot start. Rumors have swirled that Cabrera could be dealt in the Yankees hunt for a starting pitcher, but his trade value has taken a significant hit after a hot start to the season.
Jesse Litsch, SP, Blue Jays: He's been great this year for the Jays, but faces a tough task this week, getting only one start at home against the mighty Yankees offense. In his last start against the Bombers, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up 10 hits and four earned runs. His E.R.A. over the past month is 4.58, suggesting that he's finally in need of a period of adjustment after his early season success.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: After finding his way on many league waiver wire following a sluggish start to the season, the Brewers shortstop has three home runs and seven runs batted in during the past week. He also entered the holiday weekend riding a 13-game hitting streak. Get him back on your radar in mixed leagues if you're looking to upgrade your middle-infield slot.
Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins: One of the hottest pitchers in the majors currently, he's 4-0 with a 3.19 E.R.A. over the past month. Even more impressive, he's won eight of his last nine decisions. He'll look to improve on that streak this week with starts against the struggling Padres and Dodgers.
Bench 'em
Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: Those who said he'd come back down to earth following his scorching start are feeling very good about themselves, evident by a 4-for-23 slump over the last week. He's been nursing a painful bruised left kneecap recently, possibly contributing to his lack of production. Remember though, he has a career batting average of .259. Sell if you still can.
Randy Johnson, SP, Diamondbacks: The wheels look to be completely off the wagon with losses in his last six starts and a 7.94 E.R.A. over the past month. Those hideous numbers alone should scare off even the most diehard supporters. He is 12 wins shy of 300, but will be better off chasing that dream while on your league waiver wire.
8:56 AM Fri, Jul 04, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
Scouting and formulating opinions is a major part of what we do in this fantasy pursuit, but being able to exploit the opinions of your opponents is what leads to gains in the player swap. Keep that theme in mind as we offer portfolio help in the latest NL Stock Watch.
Pitchers
BUY
Damaso Marte, RP, Pirates: We've seen very little closer turnover in the first half of 2008, but that's about to change; keep an eye peeled to the situations in Colorado (Brian Fuentes' bags are packed), Tampa Bay and Cleveland. The setup doesn't look that tricky in Pittsburgh, where Marte is really the only logical option now that Matt Capps is almost certainly done for the year. Marte shouldn't be bothered by the lefty bias against closers because he's getting batters out from both sides of the plate, and he's got enough juice to put people away in the ninth (44 strikeouts in 40.2 innings). Don't talk yourself into a spec play on Tyler Yates; his 3.67 E.R.A. is a sham when you consider that he's got 30 walks against 26 strikeouts.
SELL
John Lannan, SP, Nationals: The tidy 3.60 E.R.A. for June looks nice, but it's been done with mirrors: seven homers allowed, just 13 strikeouts over 30 innings. Not surprisingly, the league hit just .218 against Lannan on balls in play last month, flat unsustainable. Let someone else bare the brunt of the correction that's inevitable.
SHOP AROUND
Matt Cain, SP, Giants: The strikeout spike is tasty but the full picture reveals a mixed trend -- walks are up, and he's allowing more balls in the air (and more line drives). Cain also seems to lose his focus on the mound for at least one inning every start, and toiling for the punchless Giants doesn't lead to a lot of wins (he's got just 12 over his last 50 turns). Add it all up and the light color becomes yellow on Cain -- he's not someone to dump or run from, but you can probably package his last five starts (2.88 E.R.A., 39 strikeouts in 34.1 innings) and sell high.
Hitters
BUY
J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: He was a common drop in most mixed leagues after a dreadful opening quarter, but he's come on like gangbusters since the middle of May (.311/.378/.574, seven homers). Hardy had a two-month run in 2007 where he carried fantasy teams, so we'll jump on board and see how long it lasts. Manager Ned Yost is a believer as well, plugging his shortstop into the No. 2 spot in the order and leaving him alone (Hardy was stuck in the No. 7 position, an NL death sentence, for most of April and May).
J.R. Towles, C, Astros: He regained his stroke and his confidence during a month in Triple-A (.279/.380/.574, five homers), and the Astros quickly recalled him when Humberto Quintero went on the DL. There's a chance Towles could be a useful $4-6 backstop for the final three months, hitting a few homers and stealing a base now and then.
SELL
Luke Carlin, C, Padres: He's the new backstop in Bordertown with Michael Barrett hitting the disabled list, but a starting gig doesn't guarantee fantasy value. Carlin couldn't hit a lick in Triple-A last season (.220/.326/.300) and it's been even worse in 67 at-bats with the Padres this year (.149/.240/.224). Even in NL-only groups, you need to do better.
SHOP AROUND
Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: His power came back in June (eight homers, .567 slugging) but he still gets himself out too often by expanding his zone, especially with runners in scoring position (.222/.364/.431). The Brewers need Fielder and Ryan Braun (sore hand) to be right if they're going to make a playoff push; this name-heavy offense is a disappointing ninth in runs scored. Fielder's current price in the market probably exceeds his true worth at the moment; at his position he's just 12th in roto value earned through three months of play.
8:48 AM Fri, Jul 04, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
Go ahead and barbecue all you like, drink a cold one, watch some fireworks, celebrate your love for our great country. I'll be doing those things, too, but I'm not going to pass on another wonderful American pastime -- scouting baseball players and making sense of them from a fantasy perspective. Here's a peak inside the notebook.
Hitters
BUY
Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers: A bunch of homers (23 to be exact) in Double-A and Triple-A got him to Texas, and so far so good for the 22-year-old slugger (6-for-19, three taters). Davis is going to strike out a bunch and there are plenty of holes in his all-or-nothing swing right now, but the Rangers are intrigued by his upside and will likely keep him around even after Hank Blalock comes off the disabled list.
HOLD
Mark Ellis, 2B, Athletics: He's an unheralded player who gets little love in the fantasy community, but Ellis is capable of helping you in any category you ask (witness his strong June, which featured 19 runs, four homers, four steals and an acceptable .273 average). It's been more of the same in July, with another homer and two more bags. Oakland knows what it has here, normally batting Ellis first or second no matter the opposing pitcher.
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox: He returned to the lineup Thursday (off a suspension) with a couple of hits and another stolen base (No. 13); Crisp has been an underrated but reliable part of the Boston lineup for much of the year. He'll continue to see regular time while David Ortiz heals his wrist injury, and don't sweat the second half for Coco -- he'll keep at-bats if anyone else gets hurt, and if the entire lineup gets healthy at once, look for the Boston front office to aggressively shop the outfielder. Either way, we're not worried about Crisp getting work, or collecting numbers for us.
Pitchers
BUY
C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: It's almost definite he'll be traded, to a contender of course, and there are bunch of logical NL destinations (where the lineups are softer and the strikeouts come easier). Forget Sabathia's struggles over the first month of the year; he's been electric over his last 14 turns (2.16 E.R.A., 109 strikeouts). Sure, Sabathia's fantasy value isn't exactly low right now, but he's capable of being fantasy's dominant pitcher from here on out. Go get him.
SELL
Joe Borowski, RP, Indians: Eric Wedge is the last person to realize that Borowski has no business closing out games for the struggling Tribe. Granted, the bullpen as a whole is the second worst in baseball, so it's not like there's an easy answer out of this. Look for Masa Kobayashi to head up a ninth-inning-by-committee, and perhaps run with the job if he converts the first few chances he's given. Rafael Perez probably has the stuff to handle the post, too, but the lefty bias against closers will likely work against him.
HOLD
Grant Balfour, RP, Rays: While Dan Wheeler is the current chairman of the Tampa Bay bullpen while Troy Percival rehabs his balky hamstring, let's not look past Balfour's amazing run since rejoining the club five weeks ago (1.08 E.R.A., 0.78 ratio, 25 strikeouts over 16.2 innings). The Aussie Balfour already has two wins and two saves in just 12 appearances this year, and Joe Maddon will continue to work the "Thunder from Down Under" into as many high-leverage situations as possible.
1:46 PM Wed, Jul 02, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
The Interleague part of the baseball schedule is over and the AL again bested the NL, head-to-head, 149-102 -- the fifth straight year that the AL has won the series. Let's try to make sense out of this apparent stretch of AL dominance.
Last year, the AL finished 137-115 versus the NL in regular-season play. In 2006, the AL bested the NL 154-98; and, in 2005, it was 136-116 in favor of the AL.
Case closed? Consider some caveats. Interleague play isn't the best way to assess the relative strength of each league because the leagues don't actually play one another, individual teams do in various combinations. Only a small percentage of the possible combinations of teams are tested each year.
And the drawback to making judgments based on multi-season data is that the players are always changing. So what happened in 2006 doesn't really mean much in assessing the leagues in 2008.
But while the chance that the AL is better than the NL is not as likely as certain as recent records suggest, it's still likely. So why is the AL likely consistently better?
AL teams have higher average payrolls than NL teams: $97.5 million per team this year in the AL, $83.3 million in the NL. Note this gap is shrinking, though, as average payrolls increased about $5 million in the AL and $10 million in the NL this offseason. All payroll data was provided by the Associated Press based on opening day rosters.
One big problem you see with these averages is that the Yankees are breaking the bank at the top ($209 million) and, at the bottom, the Marlins are paying half as much in payroll as any other team ($21.8 million, or less than what the Yanks pay just Jason Giambi). Take away these top and bottom outliers and the AL now beats the NL in average payroll, $88.9 to $87.4 million.
Note that the Bombers spend $73 million on Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Giambi this year, more than 11 teams spend on their entire rosters.
Not discounting for the Yanks and Marlins problem and assuming that the AL played the NL in a more uniform and thus statistically reliable way, we would expect the AL to go 136-115 based only on the additional money each team, on average, spends on players. Of course, this assumes that payroll correlates perfectly to wins, which it doesn't. Just ask the Yankees, looking way up at the standings at the Rays - baseball's second-lowest payroll team at just $43 million and change.
We also see evidence of payroll not correlating to performance when we look at the list of the league's highest-paid players. Let's assess whether their future on-field fortunes are likely to be bullish or bearish. Individual salary in parentheses, courtesy of USA Today.
Buy
Torii Hunter, OF, Angels ($16.5 million): He's disappointed with the power and has hit homers on 10.7 percent of fly balls, about league average. His last six years with the Twins, it was about 16 percent. The problem is on the road, where he's slugging .351. Expect a big correction.
Andy Pettitte, P, Yankees ($16 million): His fastball is only slightly slower (88.4 mph on average), but he's getting more Ks and walking less men than last year. He's also getting more grounders (53 percent), though that's increasing his hit rate (.319 allowed on balls in play).
Randy Johnson, P, Diamondbacks ($15.1 million): Average fastball is just 91 mph now. But the K/BB ratio is very healthy. He's allowing a .354 average on batted balls (.303 for his career). If he stays healthy - a big if - the results should be much better.
Hold
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners ($17.1 million): He's running wild on the bases, with 33 thefts already (37 all of last year). This spryness is quite a surprise considering he turns 35 in October. He's hitting under .300, but his average on balls in play (.322) is the second lowest it's been during his eight big-league seasons.
Johan Santana, P, Mets ($17 million): He's lost about two miles per hour on his fastball from 2006, but nothing relative to last year. The K rate is down and walks are up, but still sit in solid territory. Remember, he's been much better historically in the second half.
Manny Ramirez, OF, Red Sox ($19 million): The power has bounced back somewhat (17.8 percent of fly balls now clear the wall vs. 23.5 percent in 2006). He's striking out 25 percent of the time (19 percent last year). He's still very good, but, at 36, clearly in decline.
Jason Giambi, 1B, Yankees ($21 million): He was dead weight that the Yanks were finally going to be clear of next year. But now they might consider taking that $22-million option ($5 million buyout). His strikeout rate is down from 26 percent of at bats to 18.6 percent. And he's hitting homers on 18 percent of fly balls (14 percent last year).
Sell
Mike Hampton, P, Braves ($16): He's thrown 69 big league innings since 2004, during which time he's earned $55 million (including this year). That's about $800,000 per inning.
Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers ($15.7): He's been out since May 6 and his rehab assignment lasted four innings after he woke up yesterday with more pain.
5:42 PM Tue, Jul 01, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/1
Next Update: 7/8
First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. *Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
6. Ryan Howard, Phillies
7. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
12. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
13. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
14. Jason Giambi, Yankees
NOTE: Comeback Player of the Year?
14. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
15. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
18. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
NOTE: Here comes the summer push.
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. *Carlos Pena, Rays
21. Ryan Garko, Indians
22. Carlos Delgado, Mets
23. *Travis Hafner, Indians
24. Jim Thome, White Sox
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
26. *Paul Konerko, White Sox
27. Todd Helton, Rockies
NOTE: Declining vet has been overrated for a while.
28. Kevin Millar, Orioles
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
NOTE: Most unheralded infield stud in league.
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Placido Polanco, Tigers
9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
10. Kelly Johnson, Braves
11. Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. Alexei Casilla, Twins
NOTE: Hitting well and the bags will come.
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
14. Mark Ellis, Athletics
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
NOTE: Underrated part of NL's best lineup.
16. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
21. Luis Castillo, Mets
22. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
23. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
24. Jose Lopez, Mariners
25. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
26. Clint Barmes, Rockies
27. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
28. Jamie Carroll, Indians
29. Brendan Harris, Twins
30. Jeff Baker, Rockies
31. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Yunel Escobar, Braves
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
13. Jason Bartlett, Rays
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
15. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
NOTE: Hasn't looked right most of season.
16. Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: They'll find room for this Swiss Army Knife.
17. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
18. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
19. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
20. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
21. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
22. Khalil Greene, Padres
23. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
24. Erick Aybar, Angels
25. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
26. Omar Vizquel, Giants
27. Jack Wilson, Pirates
28. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
29. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. *Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
7. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: You might see 15-18 more homers.
8. Alex Gordon, Royals
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Joe Crede, White Sox
11. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
12. *Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Can't be surprised when injuries hit here.
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Lots of Ks, but power is legit.
19. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
20. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
21. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
22. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
23. Melvin Mora, Orioles
24. Jose Castillo, Giants
25. Eric Chavez, Athletics
26. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
27. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
28. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
3. Carl Crawford, Rays
4. Matt Holliday, Rockies
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
8. Nick Markakis, Orioles
9. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
NOTE: Talk about highway robbery; D-Backs botched this deal.
12. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
13. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
14. Carlos Beltran, Mets
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Adam Dunn, Reds
17. Milton Bradley, Rangers
18. Torii Hunter, Angels
19. Corey Hart, Brewers
20. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
21. Jay Bruce, Reds
22. Hunter Pence, Astros
23. Jason Bay, Pirates
24. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
25. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Correction came in June but don't overreact.
26. Michael Bourn, Astros
27. Johnny Damon, Yankees
28. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
29. Jose Guillen, Royals
30. *Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
NOTE: Is there anyone who *didn't* get hurt last week?
31. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
32. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
33. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
34. Carlos Gomez, Twins
35. Shane Victorino, Phillies
36. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
37. Randy Winn, Giants
38. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
NOTE: If his legs are hurt, say goodnight.
39. Pat Burrell, Phillies
40. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
41. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
42. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
43. Nick Swisher, White Sox
44. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: I guess this is growing up.
45. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
46. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
47. Aaron Rowand, Giants
48. Xavier Nady, Pirates
49. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
50. Josh Willingham, Marlins
NOTE: Cranky back but looked good Monday (2 HR).
51. Chase Headley, Padres
52. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
53. Luke Scott, Orioles
54. Ken Griffey, Reds
55. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
NOTE: Plucky and useful.
56. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
57. Mike Cameron, Brewers
58. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
59. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
NOTE: The decline starts to set in.
60. Willy Taveras, Rockies
61. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
62. Bill Hall, Brewers
63. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
64. Jack Cust, Athletics
65. Mark Teahen, Royals
66. Adam Jones, Orioles
67. *Lastings Milledge, Nationals
68. David Murphy, Rangers
69. Gary Matthews, Angels
70. Ben Francisco, Indians
71. Brian Giles, Padres
72. Garret Anderson, Angels
73. *David DeJesus, Royals
74. Jason Kubel, Twins
75. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
76. Delmon Young, Twins
77. Joey Gathright, Royals
78. Eric Hinske, Rays
79. Brian Giles, Padres
80. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
81. Fred Lewis, Giants
82. Gregor Blanco, Braves
83. Jody Gerut, Padres
84. *Ryan Church, Mets
85. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
86. Jonny Gomes, Rays
87. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
88. Cody Ross, Marlins
89. *Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
90. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
91. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
92. Jayson Werth, Phillies
93. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
94. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
95. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
96. *Reed Johnson, Cubs
97. Endy Chavez, Mets
98. Austin Kearns, Nationals
99. John Bowker, Giants
100. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
101. *Andruw Jones, Dodgers
Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Dioner Navarro, Rays
9. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
NOTE: Chemistry doesn't exist in fantasy baseball.
10. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
11. *Yadier Molina, Cardinals
12. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
13. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
14. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
15. *Victor Martinez, Indians
16. Mike Napoli, Angels
17. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
18. Jesus Flores, Nationals
19. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
20. Jeff Clement, Mariners
21. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
NOTE: Another part of Seattle train wreck.
22. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
25. Paul Bako, Reds
26. Miguel Olivo, Royals
27. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
28. Jeff Mathis, Angels
29. John Buck, Royals
30. Jason Kendall, Brewers
31. *Brandon Inge, Tigers
2:30 PM Tue, Jul 01, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 7/1
Next Update: 7/8
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: Default rank, but he hasn't dominated.
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Tim Lincecum, Giants
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Scott Kazmir, Rays
7. Edinson Volquez, Reds
8. John Lackey, Angels
NOTE: Letter perfect since his return.
9. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
10. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
NOTE: Most underrated ace in the league.
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
13. James Shields, Rays
14. Justin Verlander, Tigers
15. *Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
17. Tim Hudson, Braves
18. Cliff Lee, Indians
19. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
20. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
21. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
22. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
23. Ted Lilly, Cubs
24. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
NOTE: Can't deny the rank now.
25. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
26. Matt Cain, Giants
27. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
28. Ben Sheets, Brewers
29. Erik Bedard, Mariners
30. Ervin Santana, Angels
31. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
32. Jered Weaver, Angels
33. Matt Garza, Rays
NOTE: Ceiling remains very high.
34. *Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NOTE: One step forward, two steps back.
34. Aaron Harang, Reds
35. Rich Harden, Athletics
37. John Maine, Mets
38. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: Looking for return in July.
39. John Danks, White Sox
40. Pedro Martinez, Mets
41. Joe Saunders, Angels
42. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
NOTE: Quality start machine, hasn't been supported.
43. Jon Lester, Red Sox
44. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
45. Kevin Slowey, Twins
NOTE: Radke 2.0, but with higher upside.
46. *Chris Young, Padres
47. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
48. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
49. Gil Meche, Royals
50. Manny Parra, Brewers
51. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NOTE: Still hasn't won a game.
52. Zack Greinke, Royals
53. Scott Baker, Twins
54. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
NOTE: Been a factor since early May.
55. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
56. Mike Mussina, Yankees
57. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
58. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
59. Randy Wolf, Padres
60. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
61. Dana Eveland, Athletics
NOTE: More confident and results show it.
62. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
63. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
64. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
65. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
66. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
67. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
68. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
69. Scott Olsen, Marlins
70. Paul Maholm, Pirates
NOTE: Not an ace but a nice back-fill.
71. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
72. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
73. Jose Contreras, White Sox
74. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
NOTE: Is league catching up to him?
75. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
76. Andrew Miller, Marlins
77. Aaron Cook, Rockies
78. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
NOTE: See Darrell Rasner.
79. Aaron Laffey, Indians
80. Greg Smith, Athletics
81. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
82. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
83. Nick Blackburn, Twins
84. Jon Garland, Angels
85. Johnny Cueto, Reds
86. Joe Blanton, Athletics
87. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
88. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
89. Jeff Francis, Rockies
90. *Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
91. Brian Bannister, Royals
92. Greg Maddux, Padres
93. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
94. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
95. Tim Redding, Senators
96. Jorge Campillo, Braves
97. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
98. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
99. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
100. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
101. Luke Hochevar, Royals
102. Garrett Olson, Orioles
103. *Josh Johnson, Marlins
NOTE: Sleeper looking strong in rehab starts.
104. John Lannan, Nationals
105. Shawn Hill, Senators
106. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
107. Jason Bergmann, Senators
108. Kevin Correia, Giants
NOTE: Worth a look in deep leagues.
109. *Rich Hill, Cubs
110. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
111. *Ian Snell, Pirates
112. Edwin Jackson, Rays
113. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
114. Odalis Perez, Senators
115. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
116. Oliver Perez, Mets
117. Livan Hernandez, Twins
118. Braden Looper, Cardinals
119. *Homer Bailey, Reds
120. Nate Robertson, Tigers
121. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
122. Paul Byrd, Indians
123. *Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
124. Miguel Batista, Mariners
125. Barry Zito, Giants
126. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
NOTE: It just hasn't been Seattle's year.
Relief Pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
6. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
7. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
8. Kerry Wood, Cubs
9. Brad Lidge, Phillies
10. Joakim Soria, Royals
11. Matt Capps, Pirates
12. Francisco Cordero, Reds
13. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
14. Jose Valverde, Astros
15. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Not ideal command but his stuff jumps.
16. George Sherrill, Orioles
17. Huston Street, Athletics
18. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
19. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
20. Todd Jones, Tigers
21. Jon Rauch, Senators
NOTE: Extra job security with Cordero done.
22. *Troy Percival, Rays
NOTE: Beware the hamstring, and go get Wheeler.
23. Joe Borowski, Indians
24. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
25. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
26. Salomon Torres, Brewers
NOTE: Gagne isn't getting job back.
27. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
NOTE: Shelf life extended with Izzy nicked.
28. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
29. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
30. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
NOTE: Scuffling as the team tries to move him.
31. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
32. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
33. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
34. Dan Wheeler, Rays
35. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
NOTE: Piling up strikeouts, worth 5x5 consideration.
36. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
37. Heath Bell, Padres
38. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
39. Scot Shields, Angels
40. Blaine Boyer, Braves
41. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
42. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
43. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
44. Chris Perez, Cardinals
45. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
46. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
47. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
48. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
49. J.P. Howell, Rays
50. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
51. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
52. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
53. Doug Brocail, Astros
54. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
NOTE: More important with Lindstrom demoted.
55. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
56. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
57. Keith Foulke, Athletics
58. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
59. John Grabow, Pirates
60. *Eddie Guardado, Rangers
61. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
62. Manny Acosta, Braves
63. Tom Gordon, Phillies
64. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
65. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
66. Bob Howry, Cubs
67. Arthur Rhodes, Mariners
68. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
69. *Chad Cordero, Senators
NOTE: Out for season, and part of 2009.
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