Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Yesterday’s bush-league star can be today’s fantasy difference maker, a theme we’ll explore in this week’s version of the American League stock watch. Get those FAAB dollars ready and let’s pump some life into our offense.

Hitters

BUY

Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: He was ripping up Triple-A pitching (leading the PCL in RBIs and extra-base hits) and the hits keep on coming in Kansas City (.321 average, .642 slugging). Sure, 27 is old for a prospect, but let’s not forget that he hit .296 with 17 homers in Triple-A last year. Aviles probably will settle in as a $7-8 fantasy bat the rest of the way, but that makes him Alex Rodriguez compared to former Royals starter Tony Pena. Don’t ask why on Aviles, ask why not?

Jeff Clement, C, Mariners: Here’s another player with nothing left to prove at Triple-A (.337, 14 homers), and the Ms are fully in experiment mode for the season, which means they have an excuse to sit Kenji Johjima at least half of the time. Granted, they’re still on the hook for Johjima’s bloated contract, but that’s ownership’s problem, not ours. Clement was the seventh catcher off the board in an AL-only expert draft that we participated in Thursday.

SELL

Mike Napoli, C, Angels: He’s in the game for his power, and that still comes now and then (10 homers), but a .202 average and ordinary defense won’t win him any fans in the O.C. Jeff Mathis is getting 60 percent of the starts over the last month, and Mike Scioscia has no incentive to break up a winning hand.

HOLD

J.D. Drew, RF, Red Sox: His monster June (.441, nine homers, 21 RBIs) screams out sell-high in theory, but the street value on Drew has been compromised for years – just about everyone in your league has been tripped up by this stock once or twice. If you fell into this surprise run, sit back and enjoy the ride – the third spot in Boston’s electric order is a cushy spot to be in, and Drew’s much more relaxed in his second Hub summer.

Pitchers

BUY

Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles: Forget the low win count and focus on the other things; the tidy 3.51 E.R.A., the solid 1.21 ratio. He keeps the ball in the park, strikes out just enough batters to be 5x5 useful, and he’s only had three bad turns in 16 starts. There’s a pedigree as well to Guthrie, a former No. 1 draft choice out of Stanford.

SELL

C.J. Wilson, RP, Rangers: Part of his struggles can be attributed to the jet stream in Arlington, but Wilson makes enough of his problems with his messy walk/strikeout rate (16 free passes, 23 whiffs). And it’s a little odd to see a closing southpaw who can’t dominate against left-handed hitters (.286 batting average against, 1.80 ratio). There isn’t a clear heir to the throne in Texas, but this could be a full-fledge committee fairly soon, with Joaquin Benoit and Eddie Guardado entering the mix.

HOLD

Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox: His strikeout rate has dipped a bit, but that’s a trade-off we’ll take against all the improvements: fewer walks, more ground balls, fewer home home runs. It’s a bit strange to say this about someone who recently threw a no-hitter, but Lester is still undervalued in many groups. He’s going to be a Top 15 pitcher in the AL for many seasons to come, and don’t let the home park throw you; Lester has a 3.73 E.R.A. at Fenway for his career – it’s over a run better this season – and it’s a myth that southpaws can’t succeed in that yard. Bruce Hurst, anyone?

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