Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

June 15, 2008 - June 21, 2008 Archives

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week June 23-29 unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Mark Ellis, 2B, Athletics: Those in search of a mixed-league middle infielder should give him a look, as he’s been red hot over the past week, clubbing two home runs while posting a batting average of .400. Expect a slight increase in batting average as his average on balls in play increases (currently .269, .300 is average). This fly-ball hitter is a good bet to match or exceed his career high in home runs he set last season (19).

Brian Bannister, SP, Royals: A great match-up play, the Royals’ control specialist gets two home starts this week (Rockies and Cardinals). His E.R.A. there is 2.80. He posted a solid performance earlier in the season against the Cards, allowing only two earned runs while going seven strong innings on his way to a victory.

Bench 'em

Gary Matthews Jr., OF, Angels: He’s been an absolute dog over the past week, going 4 for his last 21 with zero home runs or RBI over that span. He’ll be on the road all week, where he's posted a .238 batting average so far this season. Scour your waiver wire for a replacement; his ‘06 numbers are never coming back.

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: He got absolutely shelled by the Mets early last week (six earned runs in 6 1/3 innings) and has given up at least four runs in three of his past four stars. He’ll get one turn this week against the Dodgers on the road, where he’s been brutal this season (5.98 E.R.A.).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put'em in

Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies: After word came that he’d be splitting time in center field with Ryan Spilborghs, Fast Willy caught fire by going 7 for his last 23 with 7 steals. He currently leads the National League in stolen bases with 31, and could swipe more than 60 by the time the season is through. Owners in search of steals could still find him on their waiver wires, and will get a great return on that meager investment if he continues hitting at his current pace.

Derek Lowe, SP, Dodgers: On a nice roll as of late, posting a 1.96 E.R.A. over his past six starts. He posted a 2.43 E.R.A. last June, so this is a traditionally good month for the Dodgers’ hurler. Getting two home starts against the White Sox and the Angels this week should help keep that number low, as he’s posted a 3.11 E.R.A. at Dodger Stadium this season.

Bench 'em

Ken Griffey Jr., OF, Reds: Since hitting home run number 600, the future Hall of Famer has slumped mightily. Lots of trade talk has swirled around him over the past week, with Tampa Bay being a possible destination. Perhaps this has caused his focus to wander. A trade could energize his fading career, something all true baseball fans would love to see.

Jason Marquis, SP, Cubs: He’s crept onto some rosters thanks to his recent three-game winning streak and a vote of confidence from manager Lou Pinella. He’ll get a start on the road against the White Sox this week, a squad that hit him hard last season (five earned runs in six innings). His lack of strikeouts (4.48 K/9) should be reason alone not to roster him; but if you’re looking for more, notice his his career 1.43 WHIP.

By David Ferris

Yesterday’s bush-league star can be today’s fantasy difference maker, a theme we’ll explore in this week’s version of the American League stock watch. Get those FAAB dollars ready and let’s pump some life into our offense.

Hitters

BUY

Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: He was ripping up Triple-A pitching (leading the PCL in RBIs and extra-base hits) and the hits keep on coming in Kansas City (.321 average, .642 slugging). Sure, 27 is old for a prospect, but let’s not forget that he hit .296 with 17 homers in Triple-A last year. Aviles probably will settle in as a $7-8 fantasy bat the rest of the way, but that makes him Alex Rodriguez compared to former Royals starter Tony Pena. Don’t ask why on Aviles, ask why not?

Jeff Clement, C, Mariners: Here’s another player with nothing left to prove at Triple-A (.337, 14 homers), and the Ms are fully in experiment mode for the season, which means they have an excuse to sit Kenji Johjima at least half of the time. Granted, they’re still on the hook for Johjima’s bloated contract, but that’s ownership’s problem, not ours. Clement was the seventh catcher off the board in an AL-only expert draft that we participated in Thursday.

SELL

Mike Napoli, C, Angels: He’s in the game for his power, and that still comes now and then (10 homers), but a .202 average and ordinary defense won’t win him any fans in the O.C. Jeff Mathis is getting 60 percent of the starts over the last month, and Mike Scioscia has no incentive to break up a winning hand.

HOLD

J.D. Drew, RF, Red Sox: His monster June (.441, nine homers, 21 RBIs) screams out sell-high in theory, but the street value on Drew has been compromised for years – just about everyone in your league has been tripped up by this stock once or twice. If you fell into this surprise run, sit back and enjoy the ride – the third spot in Boston’s electric order is a cushy spot to be in, and Drew’s much more relaxed in his second Hub summer.

Pitchers

BUY

Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles: Forget the low win count and focus on the other things; the tidy 3.51 E.R.A., the solid 1.21 ratio. He keeps the ball in the park, strikes out just enough batters to be 5x5 useful, and he’s only had three bad turns in 16 starts. There’s a pedigree as well to Guthrie, a former No. 1 draft choice out of Stanford.

SELL

C.J. Wilson, RP, Rangers: Part of his struggles can be attributed to the jet stream in Arlington, but Wilson makes enough of his problems with his messy walk/strikeout rate (16 free passes, 23 whiffs). And it’s a little odd to see a closing southpaw who can’t dominate against left-handed hitters (.286 batting average against, 1.80 ratio). There isn’t a clear heir to the throne in Texas, but this could be a full-fledge committee fairly soon, with Joaquin Benoit and Eddie Guardado entering the mix.

HOLD

Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox: His strikeout rate has dipped a bit, but that’s a trade-off we’ll take against all the improvements: fewer walks, more ground balls, fewer home home runs. It’s a bit strange to say this about someone who recently threw a no-hitter, but Lester is still undervalued in many groups. He’s going to be a Top 15 pitcher in the AL for many seasons to come, and don’t let the home park throw you; Lester has a 3.73 E.R.A. at Fenway for his career – it’s over a run better this season – and it’s a myth that southpaws can’t succeed in that yard. Bruce Hurst, anyone?

By David Ferris

While the shrewd fantasy owner always wants to learn from history, a short memory can help in other cases -- sometimes there's every reason to believe the player before us has truly taken a step forward and will be a fantasy asset for the balance of the season. Keep that theme in mind as we sort through some second-chance properties in this week's edition of the player swap.

Hitters

BUY

Chase Headley, 3B/OF, Padres: There was nothing left for him to prove at Triple-A (.305, 13 homers, .939 OPS), and the offensively challenged Friars need all the help they can get. Headley's pedigree is probably a shade less than Evan Longoria's, and we'll also discount about 10 percent for the giant park he'll be toiling in. Nonetheless, we'll also commit to a .275 average and 10 to 12 homers for the switch-hitting Headley the rest of the way, and the dual-position eligibility is always a perk. He's probably here to stay.

Russell Branyan, 3B, Brewers: He air-conditions the fans in Miller Park (23 whiffs in 59 at-bats), with a souvenir baseball to follow now and again (nine homers). Milwaukee fans remember this act -- Rob Deer did it, from the other side of the plate, in the late 1980s. If you're desperate for power in a deeper league, I'll sign off on a short-term Branyan look-see, just don't get committed to anything past June. And in the meantime, Bill Hall sits on the bench.

SELL

Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals: He's getting on base (19 walks in 111 at-bats) and running aggressively (six steals); that's the good news. Flip side: There's been no real power (one homer, .351 slugging), and the personality demons loom (Dukes had a gigantic rap sheet in Tampa Bay; he had a dugout run-in with Manny Acta earlier this month). You can probably write a sell-ticket here, finding a speed sympathizer who wants to buy into the recent run.

HOLD

Randy Winn, OF, Giants: He's quietly making a dent in all five categories (.297-38-5-27-10), and the line will look prettier if he's shipped to contender during the summer (Atlanta may have interest; any new club would be a boost over San Francisco).

Pitchers

BUY

Mike Gonzalez, RP, Braves: He's got the stuff to handle the late innings, using his mid-90s heater and late-breaking slider to baffle hitters from both sides of the plate. But Gonzalez has always been a high-risk physical property, and he's only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Bobby Cox can't afford to play wait-and-see; he put Gonzalez into a save situation right out of the chute Wednesday, and the lefty responded with a perfect inning. Toss the dice; let's see what sticks.

SELL

Jeff Suppan, SP, Brewers: He's racking up a lot of quality starts, but he's doing it with mirrors -- that 3.68 E.R.A. isn't supported by his strikeout/walk rate (47 whiffs, 37 walks) or his bloated 1.46 WHIP. In less-sophisticated groups you can generally sell the basic numbers, so focus on Suppan's tidy E.R.A. and three recent wins, and see if you can slide an upgrade out of this.

Homer Bailey, SP, Reds: Three dreadful turns (8.76 E.R.A., 10 walks, 6 homers, just 3 strikeouts) got him returned to the bush leagues, probably for the balance of 2008. The lesson with young pitching is simple -- stay skeptical, be a contrarian, and look to sell these guys right before they make their MLB debut. We'll revisit Bailey (and Arizona's Max Scherzer) in a year or two, when they're priced for profit in the post-hype bin.

HOLD

Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins: Mixed trends to look at -- lefties dig in a little too much (.294 average, 13 homers), but he's improved his strikeout and walk numbers over the last nine starts, along with six pretty wins. Throw in a roomy home park and a solid offense supporting him, and there's enough to trust Nolasco in mixed groups.

By Michael Salfino

What 2008 shares with every other season, to the chagrin of fans and especially the managers and general managers they hound, is the seemingly sudden and dramatic performance decline of numerous stars.

Baseball provides a great chance to understand randomness. There's an interesting and lively book out right now, "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives," by Leonard Mlodinow, that gets into this in much more detail. But I'm going to do my best here to explain how randomness relates to baseball and, especially, our task of predicting player performance.

Mlodinow cites the Roman statesman Cicero for his belief "that an event could be anticipated and predicted even though its occurrence would be a result of blind chance." I note that 2,000 years later, Yogi Berra famously said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

That's the fine line we walk: recognizing there's a large element of randomness in all player performance while still projecting as narrow a range as possible going forward, assuming health and continued opportunity.

Consider Carlos Pena of the Rays, who homered once every 19 at-bats before last year, when he went yard once every 10.6 at-bats. Could this dramatic power boost have been a completely random event that Pena was just lucky enough to have happen to him?

His season was similar to Roger Maris' in 1961, when he went from a guy with good power to one who broke Babe Ruth's single-season homer record. Mlodinow, a physicist who teaches about randomness at Caltech, notes that Maris, before that 61-homer season, homered about once every 15 at-bats. If you had a Strat-O-Matic card of Maris that resulted in a homer 1/15th of the time and gave him 590 at-bats, and then played out seasons over and over, Mlodinow says you'd get 61 homers one time out of every 32 tries. He suggests that Maris had less to do with his 1961 season than did Lady Luck.

The lesson is to not be seduced by such random, outlying performance and expect it to repeat. So this year, we should have expected Pena to homer every 19 or so at-bats (his pre-2007 average). And in 2008, prior to his injury, Pena did exactly that (once ever 18.8 at-bats).

This is called "regression to the mean." In other words, the default projection is to expect a player to do what he's done before. That also holds true for guys like those below who are having terrible years. You just as easily "progress" to the mean assuming -- and this is the big assumption -- you get the same level of opportunities. Often, slumping hitters get benched and thus lose the chance to prove that their bad performance was just a random stretch of bad luck.

Be careful not to apply these principles of randomness blindly. Age, injury and lack of a suitable big-league track record can provide a reasonable basis for us to assume that current performance levels are less random and thus more sustainable. But beware of our human tendency to see patterns where none exist.

Now let's make some related recommendations.

Buy

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: His line-drive rate is higher than it's ever been: 21.1 percent. But he's hitting .236 on balls in play (.294 in '06 and '07). His .233 average is incredibly unlucky and will correct.

Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: Like Beltre, a higher line-drive rate and career-low average on balls in play doesn't make sense. Expect Crawford to hit well over .300 going forward.

Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: He's due to return to the active roster around the All-Star Break. We have to call a bottom on Jones. Blame the bum knee. Yes, he's fat, but the more relevant weight he's been dragging is all those random factors working against him.

Roy Oswalt, P, Astros: He's giving up homers on 20.6 percent of fly balls, twice the average rate. Yet his strikeout rate is up, arguing against a loss of stuff. Expect a major resurgence.

Hold

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: Still an extreme ground-ball hitter, but now without power (homers on just 7.1 percent of fly balls). At age 34, it's not coming back. The line-drive rate (16 percent) is also subpar, but you can be more bullish about that (and thus his average).

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels: Expectations remain too high. Even when healthy, which is rare, Kendrick is a high-average hitter with below-average speed and power. Steeply discount the minor-league slugging, which came in hitter's parks against weaker competion.

Sell

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: Few discounted the injury risk. Sometimes the fastball doesn't come back after Tommy John surgery and it hasn't yet even in the minors for Liriano.

Fausto Carmona, P, Indians: If he wasn't lucky in giving up homers on only 3.2 percent of fly balls, the results would be far worse. Walking twice as many as he Ks, Carmona has the profile of a guy hiding an injury.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 6/17
Next Update: 6/24

First Base

1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
5. Prince Fielder, Brewers
6. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
7. Ryan Howard, Phillies
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
10. Justin Morneau, Twins
11. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
12. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
13. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Cojack has higher upside than you think.
14. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
15. James Loney, Dodgers
16. Ryan Garko, Indians
17. Jason Giambi, Yankees
18. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
NOTE: Anytime you're ready, big guy.
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
21. *Travis Hafner, Indians
22. Carlos Delgado, Mets
23. Jim Thome, White Sox
24. Casey Kotchman, Angels
25. *Paul Konerko, White Sox
26. *Carlos Pena, Rays
27. Todd Helton, Rockies
28. Kevin Millar, Orioles

Second Base

1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3. Brandon Phillips, Reds
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
NOTE: Name brand still holds plenty of value.
8. Kaz Matsui, Astros
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Kelly Johnson, Braves
11. Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. *Rickie Weeks, Brewers
13. Alexei Casilla, Twins
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Mark Ellis, Athletics
16. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
17. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
18. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
NOTE: Will Ozzie give him the leash he deserves?
21. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
22. Ian Stewart, Rockies
23. Jose Lopez, Mariners
24. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
25. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
26. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
27. Brendan Harris, Twins
28. *Clint Barmes, Rockies
29. Jamie Carroll, Indians

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Derek Jeter, Yankees
5. Miguel Tejada, Astros
6. Michael Young, Rangers
7. Yunel Escobar, Braves
8. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
9. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
10. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
NOTE: At least he's still running.
15. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
18. *Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
19. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
20. Khalil Greene, Padres
21. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
22. *Jeff Keppinger, Reds
NOTE: Job is waiting for him to claim it.
23. Erick Aybar, Angels
24. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
25. Omar Vizquel, Giants
26. Jack Wilson, Pirates
27. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
28. *David Eckstein, Blue Jays

Third Base

1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Chipper Jones, Braves
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
7. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
8. Alex Gordon, Royals
9. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: A monster second half could be looming.
10. *Chone Figgins, Angels
11. Joe Crede, White Sox
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
13. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
NOTE: He's just about back to Tampa form.
14. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
20. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
21. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
22. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
23. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
24. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
25. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
26. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
27. Jose Castillo, Giants
28. Eric Chavez, Athletics

Outfield

1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Grady Sizemore, Indians
3. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
5. Carlos Lee, Astros
6. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
7. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Carl Crawford, without the hype.
8. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
9. Carl Crawford, Rays
10. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: Signs for second-half spike.
11. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
12. B.J. Upton, Rays
13. Corey Hart, Brewers
14. Carlos Beltran, Mets
15. Nate McLouth, Pirates
16. Jay Bruce, Reds
17. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
18. Milton Bradley, Rangers
19. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
20. Hunter Pence, Astros
21. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
22. Torii Hunter, Angels
NOTE: Lukewarm stock in midseason drafts.
23. Adam Dunn, Reds
24. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
25. Jason Bay, Pirates
26. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
27. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
28. Johnny Damon, Yankees
NOTE: Still fills lots o' categories.
29. Jose Guillen, Royals
NOTE: Most underrated power bat in AL.
30. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
31. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
32. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
33. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
34. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
35. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: No bat, and that's a problem.
36. Shane Victorino, Phillies
37. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
38. Pat Burrell, Phillies
39. Randy Winn, Giants
40. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
41. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
42. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
43. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
44. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
45. Carlos Gomez, Twins
46. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
NOTE: Quietly mashing while Ortiz is out.
47. Aaron Rowand, Giants
48. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
49. *Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
50. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
51. Xavier Nady, Pirates
52. Nick Swisher, White Sox
53. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
54. Willy Taveras, Rockies
55. Ken Griffey, Reds
56. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
57. Luke Scott, Orioles
58. Mike Cameron, Brewers
59. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
60. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
61. *Josh Willingham, Marlins
NOTE: Painfully slow rehab, team fine without him.
62. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
63. Jack Cust, Athletics
64. Gary Matthews, Angels
65. David DeJesus, Royals
66. Mark Teahen, Royals
67. Ben Francisco, Indians
NOTE: Getting run in No. 3 slot.
68. David Murphy, Rangers
69. Brian Giles, Padres
70. Jonny Gomes, Rays
71. Fred Lewis, Giants
72. Marcus Thames, Tigers
73. Ryan Spilborghs, Rockies
74. Delmon Young, Twins
75. Adam Jones, Orioles
76. Eric Hinske, Rays
77. Garret Anderson, Angels
78. *Ryan Church, Mets
79. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
80. Jayson Werth, Phillies
81. Jason Kubel, Twins
82. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
83. Reed Johnson, Cubs
84. Jody Gerut, Padres
85. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
86. *Moises Alou, Mets
87. Bill Hall, Brewers
88. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
89. Brandon Jones, Braves
NOTE: Getting his shot with others hurt.
90. Scott Podsednik, Rockies
91. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
92. Austin Kearns, Nationals
93. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
94. Joey Gathright, Royals
95. Emil Brown, Athletics
96. Scott Hairston, Padres
97. Luis Gonzalez, Marlins
98. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
99. Gregor Blanco, Braves
100. *Andruw Jones, Dodgers

Catcher

1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
NOTE: Whatever you paid, you made a profit.
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: When he's health, he rakes.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Dioner Navarro, Rays
9. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
10. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
11. *Yadier Molina, Cardinals
12. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
13. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
14. Mike Napoli, Angels
15. *Victor Martinez, Indians
16. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
17. Gerald Laird, Rangers
18. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
19. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
20. Jesus Flores, Nationals
21. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
22. Jeff Clement, Mariners
23. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
26. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
27. Miguel Olivo, Royals
28. Jeff Mathis, Angels
29. John Buck, Royals
30. Brandon Inge, Tigers
31. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
32. *Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
33. Jason Kendall, Brewers
34. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
35. Dave Ross, Reds
36. *Josh Bard, Padres

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 6/17
Next Update: 6/24

Starting Pitchers

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
NOTE: Electric stuff beats the park.
7. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
8. Scott Kazmir, Rays
9. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
10. Edinson Volquez, Reds
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
13. James Shields, Rays
14. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
15. John Lackey, Angels
16. Tim Hudson, Braves
NOTE: Old reliable still gets it done.
17. *Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
18. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
19. Cliff Lee, Indians
20. Erik Bedard, Mariners
21. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
22. Justin Verlander, Tigers
23. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
24. Roy Oswalt, Astros
25. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
26. Ervin Santana, Angels
27. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
28. Matt Cain, Giants
29. Ted Lilly, Cubs
NOTE: Rocky April, but pretty pictures since.
30. John Maine, Mets
31. Ben Sheets, Brewers
32. *Chris Young, Padres
33. Pedro Martinez, Mets
34. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
35. Aaron Harang, Reds
36. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
37. Jered Weaver, Angels
38. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
39. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
40. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
41. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
42. John Danks, White Sox
43. Matt Garza, Rays
NOTE: Has stuff to be a No. 2 arm.
44. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
NOTE: Command has been missing all year.
45. Joe Saunders, Angels
NOTE: Does he miss enough bats to keep it up?
46. Rich Harden, Athletics
47. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
48. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
49. Joe Blanton, Athletics
50. Gil Meche, Royals
51. Jon Lester, Red Sox
52. Mike Mussina, Yankees
53. Ian Snell, Pirates
54. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
55. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
56. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
57. Manny Parra, Brewers
58. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
59. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
60. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
61. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
NOTE: I'll sign off on his keepability now.
62. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
63. Randy Wolf, Padres
64. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
65. Zack Greinke, Royals
66. Shawn Hill, Senators
67. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
68. Oliver Perez, Mets
69. Scott Olsen, Marlins
70. Garrett Olson, Orioles
71. Kevin Slowey, Twins
72. Dana Eveland, Athletics
73. Scott Baker, Twins
74. Greg Maddux, Padres
75. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
76. Johnny Cueto, Reds
NOTE: Taking his lumps, might need Triple-A tuneup.
77. Brian Bannister, Royals
78. Jorge Campillo, Braves
79. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
80. Brett Myers, Phillies
81. Jon Garland, Angels
82. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
83. *Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
84. *Homer Bailey, Reds
85. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
86. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
NOTE: Unsung hero of the rotation.
87. Aaron Cook, Rockies
88. Jeff Francis, Rockies
89. Andrew Miller, Marlins
90. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
91. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
NOTE: He's done it for a month now.
92. John Lannan, Nationals
93. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
94. Jose Contreras, White Sox
95. Phil Dumatrait, Pirates
96. Paul Maholm, Pirates
97. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
98. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
99. Edwin Jackson, Rays
100. Aaron Laffey, Indians
101. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
102. Greg Smith, Athletics
103. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
104. Luke Hochevar, Royals
105. Jason Bergmann, Senators
106. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
107. Tim Redding, Senators
108. Braden Looper, Cardinals
109. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
NOTE: Soft stuff working now, but won't forever.
110. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
111. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
112. *Nick Blackburn, Twins
113. Paul Byrd, Indians
114. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
115. Shawn Chacon, Astros
116. *Josh Johnson, Marlins
117. Odalis Perez, Senators
118. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
119. Nate Robertson, Tigers
120. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
121. Miguel Batista, Mariners
122. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
123. Barry Zito, Giants
124. Livan Hernandez, Twins

Relief Pitchers

1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
NOTE: Recent bumps aside, still a great personal year.
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
7. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
8. Kerry Wood, Cubs
9. Brad Lidge, Phillies
10. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: A starter in 2009?
11. Jose Valverde, Astros
12. Francisco Cordero, Reds
13. Matt Capps, Pirates
14. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
15. George Sherrill, Orioles
16. Brian Wilson, Giants
17. Troy Percival, Rays
18. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
19. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
20. Jon Rauch, Senators
21. *Huston Street, Athletics
22. Todd Jones, Tigers
23. Joe Borowski, Indians
24. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
NOTE: Settled down some, but don't get long-term invested.
25. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
26. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
27. Salomon Torres, Brewers
28. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
29. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
30. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
31. Brandon Morrow, Mariners
32. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
NOTE: Good stash; Fuentes is being shopped.
33. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
34. Manny Acosta, Braves
35. Heath Bell, Padres
36. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
37. Blaine Boyer, Braves
38. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
39. Dan Wheeler, Rays
40. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
41. Chris Perez, Cardinals
42. Keith Foulke, Athletics
43. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
44. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
45. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
46. Scot Shields, Angels
NOTE: Remains the fallback plan.
47. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
48. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
49. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
50. *Santiago Casilla, Athletics
51. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
52. Doug Brocail, Astros
53. John Grabow, Pirates
54. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
55. J.P. Howell, Rays
NOTE: Quietly settling into new role.
56. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
57. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
58. *Chad Cordero, Senators
59. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
60. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
61. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
62. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
63. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
64. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
65. Bob Howry, Cubs
66. Aquilino Lopez, Tigers
67. Matt Albers, Orioles
68. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
69. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
70. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
71. *Joey Devine, Athletics
72. Tom Gordon, Phillies
73. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
74. Keiichi Yabu, Giants
75. *Leo Nunez, Royals
76. Guillermo Mota, Brewers
77. *Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays