Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

While baseball purists love advancing runners with "productive outs," do we underestimate the importance of home runs to winning games?

There are three teams playing over .600 baseball: the Red Sox, the Cubs and the Diamondbacks. Entering play on Tuesday, the Red Sox and the Cubs hit six more homers than their opponents, the Diamondbacks 12.

Do the worst teams come out on the short end of the homer equation? There are four teams playing below .400: the Padres, the Giants, the Rockies and the Mariners (in order of badness). The Giants entered play Tuesday allowing 25 more homers than they hit, the Rockies and the Padres were each minus-9 and the Mariners just minus-3.

Testing the theory further, the White Sox (29), the Marlins (27), the Phillies (18) and the Rangers (17) are the best teams in net homers. Chicago and Florida are the two most surprising division leaders. The Phillies are three games over .500, the Rangers three games under.

The aforementioned Giants are the worst team in net homers. Just above them are the Twins (minus-23), the Royals (minus-20) and the Nationals (minus-17). The Twins are a game over .500, but collectively those four teams are 82-102.

It's very early in the season. Perhaps we have sample-size issues with these homer stats and are just getting lucky in having them seemingly correlate well to winning and losing.

Let's assume the percentage of fly balls that become homers should be about the same for each team. Ballpark factors must be considered, too. But, this year, the team that's allowed the fewest homers in baseball, the White Sox, plays in the game's most homer-friendly park (just ask their hitters, who have smacked the fourth-most in baseball).

Historically, about 10 percent of fly balls become homers, and that's the case this year (9 percent in the AL, 11 percent in the NL). The big outlier on the down side is Houston, which has allowed homers on 14 percent of fly balls. I'd bet money that the Astros staff will be closer to 10 percent going forward, which should translate into at least a few more wins.

Conversely, the White Sox have been lucky in allowing homers on a league-low 7 percent of fly balls.

Individual players can sustain greater variances longer because the sample sizes are smaller. But consider that individuals also can make significant improvements that are more likely to be real. The same is true for individual performance declines. Still, when the percentage of fly balls that become homers varies greatly from recent yearly averages for reasons that cannot be attributed to age or injury, it's wise to expect a regression (or progression) to the mean.

Let's look at how some hitters and pitchers are doing in this statistic and make some recommendations. Thanks to our friends at Baseball Info Solutions and the Hardball Times for the stats.

Buy

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: He's got to play every day now, as 23 percent homers on fly balls is a number worthy of the biggest of boppers. He's also managing this while striking out in less than 20 percent of plate appearances.

Johan Santana, P, Mets: He's third in highest rate of homers allowed on fly balls (21.4 percent), behind Roy Oswalt and Brett Myers. That's about double what Santana allowed in 2006 and significantly worse than '07. A positive correction is coming.

Johnny Cueto, P, Reds: He was the flavor of the month in April but has been hammered of late thanks to allowing homers on 18.6 percent of fly balls. His K/BB ratio is almost 4:1. Normalize his homer rate and his E.R.A. is in the low 3.00s, not 5.75. The fear is he starts nibbling.

Victor Martinez, C, Indians: When you have zero homers, you also must have a 0 percent conversion rate on fly balls. Martinez is becoming an extreme ground ball hitter. But expect his conversion rate to settle in at about 13 percent of fly balls, his historic norm.

Hold

Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins: He's hitting more fly balls (just 31 percent grounders) and converting them better (21 percent homer rate versus about 14 percent the past two years). Looking at his profile, it's not outrageous to think he could hit 50. Expect him to seriously threaten the major league record for homers by a second baseman: 43 by Davey Johnson in 1973.

Ryan Church, OF, Mets: He's always had above average power when measured by our conversion rate. Yes, 23 percent seems high for him, but he was 18 percent in '06 and '05; he just didn't play much. Monitor his status over the next week or so, as he sustained a seemingly serious concussion Tuesday night.

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: To quote Ozzie Guillen, Chicago "hit the jackpot with him." He has the stat profile now of a nearly perfect hitter. And I won't bet against his power continuing: he's under 20 percent in converting fly balls. And his fly ball rate isn't extreme.

Sell

Jair Jurrjens, P, Braves: The anti-Cueto. Homers on 2.5 percent of fly balls is dumb luck, pure and simple.

Jose Contreras, P, White Sox: He's been decent at limiting homers for a couple of years. But this year's rate (about 4 percent) is ridiculous. Bank on his E.R.A. going forward being close to 5.00.

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