Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Runs are harder to come by in baseball this year. That means teams are trying harder to manufacture them.

Steals are up. That's not reflected as much in the raw numbers, though the average team is on pace for about 140 attempts this year, versus 130 in 2007. The better metric is to look at steal attempts relative to times on base.

As of Tuesday, there were 12,240 baserunners and 896 attempted steals. That means teams run about 7.3 percent of the time they have a guy on base. If that figure holds, it will be the highest since 2001, when the percentage was almost identical.

There's been a steady decline in stolen-base attempts since the scoring explosion began in the mid-1990s. When scoring is up, the break-even point on stolen-base attempts is higher. With teams slugging homers at an all-time rate, for example, bases become less valuable and outs more valuable.

In the high-scoring environment of most of this decade, some have calculated that if you aren't going to be successful more than 75 percent of the time, you're better off not running at all.

So teams that ran very close to 10 percent of the time they had men on base in the 1970s and 1980s saw that figure cut to about 6 percent, on average, the last five years.

But with scoring down this year to 4.4 runs per game from 4.8 when steals reached their nadir in 2004, teams correctly sense that that break-even point is moving closer to where it was in the 1980s -- when a success rate of 70 percent made running a useful strategy. This year the success rate is 72 percent.

The teams thus far who are running most are the Giants, Dodgers, Rays, Angels and Orioles (all north of 40 attempts). Most conservative on the bases: the Padres, Braves, White Sox, A's and Nationals (all south of 20).

Let's now use this data to project how individual players will perform in stolen bases going forward. These recommendations factor in only speed, unless otherwise suggested.

Buy

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: The K/BB ratio is still ugly: 30-6 in favor of Ks. But he's 9 for 11 stealing (82 percent), and offers substance elsewhere given his plus power and ability to hit with runners in scoring position (.394 this year and .333 in 2007). If you don't think the average (.330) is sustainable, note that his line-drive percentage is an incredible 32 percent and about 80 percent of line drives are hits.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: He's 20 for 20 in steals in his short career. After a slow start, he's again the ideal leadoff hitter (.396 on-base percentage). There's still noise about him losing playing time when Coco Crisp is healthy, but that makes no sense. Unlike most other rabbits, he offers value in other offensive categories.

Jose Reyes, SS, Mets: He had a steal in four consecutive games before being shut out Tuesday night. His K/BB ratio is still good. He's hit well below average on balls in play (.283). He should be closer to .320 going forward there, and that makes him a .300 hitter for the balance of 2008. If he wasn't pouting early about not being allowed to celebrate, he'd be at his 2007 steals pace.

Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: He's very streaky with the steals, running with abandon for weeks at a time when the mood strikes. The opportunities will mount because he's at just .306 on balls in play (.374 last year and .332 in 2006). He's been successful more than 80 percent of the time since 2005.

Hold

Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: The first-place Twins seem fully committed and Gomez is a mere embarrassment and not a disgrace in areas not involving baserunning and fielding. On the bases, he's like a supersized Jose Reyes and should continue to keep running with religious fervor because he offers nothing else offensively.

Ryan Theriot, SS, Cubs: The K/BB profile is indicative of a .300 hitter (about 1:1). Yes, he's an unacceptably poor 8 for 14 in steals attempts, but was 41 for 47 the prior two years.

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: He's been in an every-other-year pattern with the steals, but that's not likely to be the case this year, as he's shut out thus far in 2008. Still, 15 steals remain far more likely for him than 15 homers, as the power is gone (12 homers since 2006). He must know he needs to run to maintain enough offensive value to compensate for his poor range as a fielder.

Sell

Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies: Colorado refuses to commit, and for good reason -- no power and an inability to get on base enough unless he's hitting .320, which can't happen unless he's incredibly lucky poking those Wiffle Balls through the holes.

Michael Bourn, OF, Astros: He's hitting .194 (.096 with RISP) and has a .275 OBP. That he's 13 for 13 stealing bases this year (31 for 32 since 2006) is a distraction from the fact that he deserves to be benched. Even with average luck, he'd hit .275 with little power, despite striking out once every four at bats.

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