Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

We’ve passed Memorial Day, which means you should know where your team is at – contender or pretender. Either way you need a shopping list and a plan of attack; here’s a look into our notebook as we tiptoe out of May. Don’t let name-brand recognition sway your opinions too much; trust the numbers, and the images on your television and computer screen.

Hitters

BUY

Milton Bradley, OF/DH, Rangers: He’s always been a heckuva player; the problem is staying healthy. Sure, a .387 average on balls in play isn’t sustainable, but give Bradley some credit for his sizzling line-drive rate (just under 28 percent). Mixed leaguers love riding with this type of short-term sparkler, knowing that it’s easy to U-turn out when the inevitable injury pops up. Bottom line, you want some sort of investment in the Arlington Undertow, and Bradley’s reputation keeps the cost down.

SELL

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: There’s nothing wrong with his batting eye (his walk/strikeout ratio approaches career norms), but a pesky thumb injury is taking away most of Konerko’s power (a .351 slugging percentage this late in the year is embarrassing). He did homer on Thursday, which means you should be selling today; when Konerko admits he can feel his sore thumb tying his shoes, you know this problem isn’t going away quickly.

HOLD

Billy Butler, 1B/DH, Royals: It’s a little surprising to see him returned to Triple-A, given that he’s hitting .263 (not great but far from terrible) with 19 walks against 26 strikeouts. Remember how patient the club was with Alex Gordon last year? Alas, Butler is supposed to bring power to the table, and that hasn’t been the case through two months (one homer, .339 slugging). Don’t be surprised if Butler tears up Triple-A pitching for a month or two, then becomes fantasy relevant again down the stretch; in deeper groups and keep leagues, look for a way to stash-and-hold.

Pitchers

BUY

Dan Wheeler, RP, Rays: His first go-round in Tampa Bay was a train wreck, but he’s been a different guy in 2008 (2.19 E.R.A., 0.89 ratio, 18 strikeouts over 24.2 innings). The Rays are saying positive things about Troy Percival’s hamstring injury, but any stop on the DL becomes a red flag, especially when we’re talking about a 37-year-old vet. Wheeler will close in the meantime, and who knows, maybe his temporary ninth-inning work will be extended if Percival can’t return quickly.

SELL

Boof Bonser, SP, Twins: He’s been hammered all month (9.29 E.R.A., 1.62 ratio), and with Glen Perkins pitching so well, Bonser will probably be the odd man out when Scott Baker returns to the rotation in early June. Bonser will need to string together a bunch of quality appearances before I take him out of the “tease” file.

HOLD

Jesse Litsch, SP, Blue Jays: You see the 3.18 E.R.A. tied to a modest strikeout rate (5.1/9), and it’s knee-jerk to want to shoot holes in the kid. But Litsch doesn’t walk anyone – just nine free passes all season – and he’s keeping the ball on the ground almost half of the time, so this run seems to be mostly legit. A mild correction might be in place working in the rough-and-tumble AL East, but Litsch has earned the right to be trusted even in mixed leagues.

Matt Garza, SP, Rays: He’s been sharp as a tack in four of his last five starts (2.43 E.R.A., just one homer allowed), and while a lot of that success has come without strikeouts, Garza did whiff 10 Rangers in his last turn. In short, it looks like the arm problems from April are a thing of the past. You probably want to steer him away from the Fenway Park start next week (the Red Sox punish everyone at home), but I’m ready to green-light Garza just about anywhere else.

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