Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Starting pitching is the siren song of fantasy baseball, the most fickle element of the game. With that in mind, let's open this week's mover-and-shaker report looking at four hot pitching stocks and what you should be doing with them.

Pitchers

BUY

Aaron Laffey, SP, Indians: Most of his stuff is in the high-80s, but don't dismiss it out of hand -- he's getting ground balls 53 percent of the time, he hasn't allowed a homer yet, and he's missing a few bats (20 strikeouts in 33.2 innings). Laffey has also worked seven innings in four straight starts; the Yankees were the only opponent of five that were able to figure him out. The Indians have a keeper with the 23-year-old southpaw.

SELL

Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox: The no-hitter draws plenty of attention, and in truth Lester's comeback story has been in place for a while: he's got a tidy 8-1 record with a 3.38 E.R.A. over his last 117.1 innings of work. But he's been a little lucky on balls in play (.254) and his bloated walk rate (4.23 per nine innings) is a looming bill that eventually will have to be paid. Better command could make Lester a star, but for the balance of this season it's likely we'll see inconsistent returns. We're not human if we don't root for the story here -- it's always an inspiring story when someone beats cancer -- but we're not doing our job if we don't mention that the timing is right for a sell-high.

Armando Galarraga, SP, Tigers: We can't blame the Tigers for keeping the kid in the rotation -- they're desperate for arms and the righty is getting people out at the moment. But the hit rate (.192 BABIP) is a fluke dying for a correction, and Galarraga will eventually pay for his pedestrian walk/strikeout rate. We're not convinced this is going to be a long-running story.

HOLD

Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles: He's made eight quality starts in a row and he's not ducking anyone during that run -- half of those turns came against the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Angels. For years Cabrera had electric stuff but no idea where it was going half of the time; in 2008 he's learning that it's OK to dial it down a bit in the name of better command (his strikeouts are down, but he's also walking a batter-and-a-half less per nine innings). Pay the fare on DC Cab -- this looks like a six-month ride worth taking.

Hitters

BUY

Mike Lowell, 3B, Red Sox: He's been on every pitch this month (.325 average, .651 slugging), a clear sign that he's over the thumb problem that knocked him down in April. Lowell's also enjoying life in the Red Sox undertow; being tied to the AL's best offense is a wonderful thing for run production. While Lowell isn't likely to match last year's career numbers, he's a safe bet to finish the year with a .280 average, 20 homers and around 100 RBIs.

SELL

Ramon Vazquez, Utility, Rangers: He's carrying three positions of eligibility and a snappy .434 on-base percentage, but giving him a spot in a mixed league might be overreaching -- Vazquez doesn't play against lefties, and for his career he's just a .255 hitter with moderate power and negligible speed. You have our permission to use Vazquez as a rover in AL-only groups, but in the mixed world you want to shoot for a higher upside.

HOLD

Jack Cust, OF, Athletics: He's walking a little more and striking out a shade less than 2007, but otherwise we're seeing a virtual replay of last year's summer run -- a 25-30 homer guy who's going to hit around .255. You're not going to get any speed here and obviously there's batting-average risk, but 525 at-bats into Cust's Oakland experience, at least we can say he's a fairly easy stock to project. You know what you're getting here.

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