Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

May 16, 2008 Archives

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week May 19-25 unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Dioner Navarro, C, Rays: Last year, he hit .285 with eight home runs and 31 runs batted in after the All-Star break. That hot hitting continues this year. He recently collected three multi-hit games against the Yankees, and heads into the weekend sporting a batting average of .387. He faces Oakland and Baltimore this week, and is shaping up to be a nice bargain for anyone who chose not to use an early draft pick on a catcher.

Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles: A perennial fantasy tease, Cabrera has started off the season very strong -- six of his eight starts have been quality ones. He’s walked a total of three batters his last three outings, going at least seven innings in each (two wins). He’ll get two starts this week, against the Yankees and the Rays, teams struggling to score. When he’s going good, he can be dominant, making him a nice add for those in need of pitching.

Bench 'em

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Ice cold thus far, as in barely above .200. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is currently .232, well below average (.300), showing that some of his struggles are due to bad luck. Konerko this week faces the Indians and the Angels, against whom he is 2 for 21 against this season. Stash him away until his fortunes begin to improve.

Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers: A huge disappointment this season, Verlander has seen his K/9 rate drop (5.4 in ’08, 8.4 in '07) and his BB/9 rate rise (3.9 in ’08, 3.0 in ’07). In April, his velocity was down almost 3 mph from last season, when he averaged 94.8 mph on fastballs. Whether it's something mechanical or a hidden injury, Verlander is a huge risk. Yes, he gets two starts against the Mariners and the Twins, but that's not a good thing given how he's pitching.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: Hermida has been on a roll lately, stringing together a seven-game hitting streak, which helped push his batting average back to around the .300 mark. His talent has never been questioned, but injuries have held him back during his first few seasons. He’ll face the Diamondbacks and the Giants this week at home, teams he hit 16 for 36 against last season.

Ted Lilly, SP, Cubs: Back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances have Lilly back on track following a sluggish start to the season. He gets two starts this week, against the Astros and the Pirates, teams he dominated last season (29/5 K/BB in 31 2/3 innings).

Bench 'em

Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks: Back in early May, Byrnes was informed by the league that he’d no longer be able to use his favorite red bats, since they were not an approved league color. Subsequently, he’s posted a batting average of just over .100 in May -- and continues to struggle at the plate while finding a new preferred piece of lumber. Keep him on your bench until he’s able to come to grips with his new wood.

Kyle Lohse, SP, Cardinals: After a terrific April, Lohse has gone into a tailspin in May, posting an E.R.A. of 10 in 17 innings. He’s also complained recently of tightness in his pitching shoulder, making him a risky play going forward until that issue gets resolved. He’ll face only the Dodgers this week, a team that pounded him last season (six earned runs in four innings).

By David Ferris

Back in the day, an E.R.A. check was like kicking the tires on a used car, but pitcher evaluation is far more complex in today's game. Don't make your next transaction without a lengthy look under the hood; settle in and we'll do an engine audit with you.

Pitchers

BUY

Scott Downs, RP, Blue Jays: He's generally pigeonholed as a crafty left-hander, but the stats suggest there's something more; with 75 strikeouts over 75.1 innings the last two years, he's got enough stuff to at least be the main caddy to B.J. Ryan. The Jays obviously agree, as they've funneled five saves to Downs and moved him ahead of Jeremy Accardo in the pecking order. And given that Ryan is off Tommy John surgery, let's not take anything for granted here.

Justin Duchscherer, SP, Athletics: We haven't seen a messy start yet through five turns, though the Angels did collect a handful of unearned runs off him earlier in the month. But there's plenty to like here: 24 strikeouts over 28.2 innings, just two homers, a digestible seven walks. It's hard to say how much work we can reasonable expect from the converted reliever -- he's never topped 96.1 innings in a season -- but for the next month or two, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

SELL

Mike Mussina, SP, Yankees: He's throwing strikes and pitching to contact, and it's been successful of late -- Moose has five straight wins and a 2.76 E.R.A. over that span. But how sustainable is this run? His ground-ball rate is merely league average, and while a .279 BABIP isn't other-worldly, it would be Mussina's luckiest rate since 1995. I'm not going to call for a crash-and-burn here, but a significant correction should be seen before the first half ends.

HOLD

Masa Kobayashi, RP, Indians: He's become the flavor of the week in Cleveland, but let's not get too invested yet. That pretty 1.86 E.R.A. isn't supported by the peripherals -- his E.R.A. probably should be twice as high -- and Joe Borowski, forever the Eric Wedge favorite, is likely to come off the disabled list next week. If you want to purchase Kobayashi as a hedge against more physical problems for Borowski, OK, we'll back you. But don't write a heavy FAAB check here, not yet anyway.

Hitters

BUY

Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers: He's been solid against lefties, terrific against righties, and a killer in the run-carnival of Arlington. Hamilton's been ballyhooed as a top prospect for so long, you'd almost swear he's ready to retire about now, but he doesn't turn 27 until the end of the month. In a keeper group, you hold onto him with both hands and don't let go; he's capable of being a .300-100-30-110 source for the next seven to eight years.

SELL

Jim Thome, DH, White Sox: He's been shackled against right-handers for some reason (.186/.341/.333, 30 strikeouts), and the answer won't come this weekend, as the Pale Hose aren't going to use him in an NL park. It hasn't been a fun year for 30-something corners, and in the case of Thome we might be looking at a cliff season.

HOLD

Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B, Rays: Normally you want power or speed from your middle infielders, and Iwamura isn't a strong contributor in either category, so it's easy to look past him at first glance. But there's a keen batting eye here, a spot at the top at the underrated Tampa Bay lineup, and a tasty May in progress (.361/.385/.541). Throw in two spots of position eligibility and I'm content to use Iwamura as my final middle infielder, or the first rover off the bench. Foreign players often see a production spike in their second year, strictly from a culture-adjustment standpoint.