Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

You want volatility, meet me in the ninth inning – the chase for saves is a never-ending fantasy pursuit. Let’s open up the books on a few National League bullpens as we track the fluctuations of the current market.

PITCHERS

BUY

Tony Pena, RP, Diamondbacks – You’d like to see better control from a potential closer, and his strikeout rate should be higher given how good his stuff is. But there’s no way we’re betting on Brandon Lyon to last a full season, and the defending NL West champs won’t be slow to make a change if Lyon’s gasoline alley bit continues. Pena might be the best spec play for saves in the National League right now.

David Riske, RP, Brewers – Eric Gagne followed up a shaky spring with an Opening Day meltdown, and early usage patterns suggest that Riske (two innings, three strikeouts, one extra-inning save) is next in line. Derrick Turnbow, you ask? He’s been an afterthought in the first week, which makes you wonder if Ned Yost has lost confidence in him.

Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds – His major-league debut Thursday had a favorable context – nasty weather for hitting, and a free-swinging opponent (Arizona). But if Cueto's electric opener (seven innings, one hit, 10 strikeouts, just 92 pitches) didn't remind you of a young Pedro Martinez, get your eyes checked. Cueto's still a waiver-eligible pick in many Yahoo! leagues, so examine your depth chart immediately. When we're considering an upside this significant, don't ask why, but rather, why not?

SELL

Barry Zito, SP, Giants – Let’s get one more downgrade in on the big lefty, then shelve the case for the season. His fastball was never in the elite class, but now it’s barely getting into the 80s, and hitters aren’t fooled at all; the Dodgers had just four swing-and-miss strikes as they knocked Zito around Monday. Be thankful that you’re not on the hook for Zito’s monster contract, and extra grateful if you avoided his name on draft day.

HOLD

Heath Bell, RP, Padres – The organization has already endorsed him as the closer-in-waiting, and the way Trevor Hoffman is handing away games these days, the baton pass could happen at some point in 2008. And even if Bell isn’t working in the ninth inning, he helps you in other ways (102 strikeouts, 2.02 ERA, 0.96 ratio in 2007). Today’s version of Bell certainly doesn’t resemble the pedestrian right-hander we saw toiling at Shea in the middle of the decade.

Jon Rauch, RP, Nationals – Chad Cordero’s shoulder is barking and while a DL trip might be avoided, he’s not available to pitch yet, either. Rauch isn’t as dominant as his demeanor on the mound would suggest – if I saw him getting on an elevator, I’d take the stairs – but he’s got enough stuff to succeed as a push-button closer.

BATTERS

BUY

Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals – We were a little concerned when he showed up to training camp on the chunky side – Nick the Thick, you might say – but he’s still got a keen eye and a line-drive bat, and he pushed Dmitri Young to the bench in short order. Johnson’s never a good bet to play a full season, but when he’s on the field, you’ll want him in your lineup. If he can even squeeze out 125 games, we’re probably looking at the NL Comeback Player of the Year. Upside: .290, 100 runs, 25 homers.

Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates – He’s always had a pretty good stick, that’s not the issue here; Doumit hit a credible .274 in 2007, and he’s got 21 homers (and 41 doubles) over 643 career at-bats. Can he stay healthy? History says no; he’s been hurt in seven of his nine pro seasons. Nonetheless John Russell has installed Doumit as his main catcher to begin the year (probably starting against most righties), and the slugging switch-hitter is off to a 5-for-11 start, so let’s run with it while we can. Upside: .280, 18 homers, 70 RBIs.

Scott Hairston, OF, Padres – Here’s another 25-homer bat that’s had trouble finding a home, but things opened up nicely for him when Jim Edmonds suffered the inevitable spring injury. Don’t forget that Hairston clubbed eight homers in just 87 late-season at-bats with the Friars last year, and he’s already got two in the opening week of 2008. Yes, he’s miscast as a center fielder, but if Bud Black can live with it, so can we.

SELL

Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks – You can’t help but love his long-term prospects, but 2008 could be a rocky road; he’s already struck out four times in eight at-bats, and the Snakes have him parked in the No. 8 spot in the lineup (a death sentence in the NL). Hot prospects generally get overpriced in non-keeper leagues anyway, so if you’re in a redraft group, let someone else play the scouting-snobbery card on Upton. We’ll get more interested when the price comes down; but you simply can’t get a deal on a buzz rookie in today’s Internet/Information age.

Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants – He’s the best offensive player the Giants have, but that didn’t keep Bruce Bochy from batting Rowand sixth in the opening two games. Rowand won’t get anything for free in his spacious home park, and good luck trying to knock in runs when Bengie Molina is clogging the bases.

HOLD

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins – His snappy second half (.340, 10 homers, .956 OPS) got him on the sleeper list, and while he’s out with a sore hamstring, the club expects Hermida back on the weekend. If someone made an impatient drop here, step up and collect your prize; there’s a post-hype profit to be made, and the small-market screen of Florida doesn’t hurt.

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