Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

It's easy for the simple strikeout to get lost in baseball's modern sabermetric revolution.

But making contact is job one for the hitter. Those who put the ball in play generate a .300 average. Pitchers who consistently miss bats avoid the uncertainty of whether a batted ball is going to be converted by their defense into an out.

Strikeouts are much more frequent now than they were a generation ago. In 1978, the 28 teams combined for 20,058 strikeouts. Last year, 30 teams rung up 32,189 Ks. That's 1,073 per team today versus 716 per team in 1978 -- an increase of 50 percent in free air conditioning for fans in attendance.

With about an eighth of the season in the books, let's look at some pitchers who currently are extreme when it comes to strikeouts.

Buy

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks: He was 38:3 in K:BB ratio in the minors before striking out seven in 4.1 perfect innings in relief. Expect him to replace Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation soon.

Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: Just starting to rehab off his strained groin, but that provides a buying window. This lefty looks finesse, but misses bats with the best of them. He's averaging 9.7 Ks/9 innings this year; last year, he averaged an impressive 7.9. He's been lucky in stranding runners this year (87 percent; average is 70), but was unlucky in 2007 and thus is a good bet to keep his ERA under 4.00.

Scott Baker, Twins: Last year in the majors, 102 Ks, 29 walks. This year, 27 and 5, respectively. His has a tender groin (day-to-day), but that 4.50 ERA is unlikely to last given those kind of peripherals.

Randy Wolf, Padres: He probably won't make it past 100 innings again this year. And the last 20 or so before a DL stint are usually brutally bad. But 9.4 Ks/2.7 walks per 9 innings demands some faith. I'll forgive that 30.7-percent line-drive rate because he's in the best pitching park in baseball.

Nate Robertson, Tigers: Yes, the ERA currently sits over 6.00, but Robertson's K/BB ratio is 7:2. Just over 57 percent of his baserunners have scored; that's very unlucky; Robertson was over 70 percent each of the past two seasons. And guys are hitting .350 on balls in play; they were under .300 in 2005 and 2006. The only caveat is a line-drive rate that's an unsightly 24 percent.

Hold

Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: He's made a deal with the devil and cut his walk rate in half. With guys like Zambrano, the rule of thumb is to expect his walk rate to match his ERA. Right now, he's walking 2.2/9 innings and his ERA is 2.21 -- perfect. He hasn't sacrificed Ks: still 7.9/9 innings (better than last year).

Ervin Santana, Angels: The guy is 25 years old and has had success in the majors but everyone wanted to write him off for a bad year while pumping up minor leaguers just a year or two younger. That's foolish. Santana was unlucky last year given his 2:1, K:BB ratio. This year, it's about 3:1. And his K-rate is a career high 7.5/9 innings.

Cliff Lee, Indians: Very small things provide the tipping point from poor to average performance and from average to good. So there's not the chasm we imagine from Lee last year to this year. Remember, he was very good in 2005. Of course, his ERA will climb probably to somewhere in the 3.00s. But there's nothing fluky about a 29:2, K:BB ratio.

Sell

Edinson Volquez, Reds: Notice how the Rangers always look for pitchers but trade guys like Volquez and Chris Young? I love the 10.8 Ks/9 innings. But the 5.2 walks will get him murdered eventually. That 1.23 ERA will jump up three runs or more unless he significantly cuts down those walks. Still useful, but not a Cy Young candidate.

Fausto Carmona, Indians: How do you have a 2.89 ERA when you've allowed 34 hits and 26 walks in 34 innings? He's stranded well over 80 percent of base runners and allowed homers on less than 7 percent of fly balls. With average performance in these categories, his ERA would be about 6.00.

Scott Olsen, Marlins: He has 13 Ks/13 walks in 35 innings. That's terrible strikeout efficiency. The control is OK, but nothing great. He's not going to strand 85 percent of base runners forever. Back when he was a K-pitcher in 2006, he stranded 70 percent. That would give him an ERA right now of about 5.30.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: I've always thought Lohse could pop as a fourth or fifth starter for some contender. But he'll never be more that that. Only extreme ground-ball guys (which Lohse isn't) survive Lohse's current 3.9/9 innings K-rates. He gave up 22 homers last year in about 193 innings. This year, zero in 34.3. They're coming. Also expect him to allow a .300 average on balls in play prospectively, not his current .276 -- a big difference in hits allowed when you're not missing bats.

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