Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

It's easy for the simple strikeout to get lost in baseball's modern sabermetric revolution.

But making contact is job one for the hitter. Those who put the ball in play generate a .300 average. Pitchers who consistently miss bats avoid the uncertainty of whether a batted ball is going to be converted by their defense into an out.

Strikeouts are much more frequent now than they were a generation ago. In 1978, the 28 teams combined for 20,058 strikeouts. Last year, 30 teams rung up 32,189 Ks. That's 1,073 per team today versus 716 per team in 1978 – an increase of 50 percent in free air conditioning for fans in attendance.

With about an eighth of the season in the books, let's look at some hitters who are extreme when it comes to strikeouts. Next week, we'll do the same for select pitchers.

Buy

Jeff Keppinger, SS, Reds: There are guys like Keppinger kicking around in every organization, waiting for a chance. His lack of speed, power or a plus-glove kept him demoted for too long. This year, four Ks and six walks; last year, in 276 at-bats, it was 12 and
24, respectively. There's no way this guy hits under .300.

Corey Patterson, OF, Reds: I know he's a guy no one wanted because of his inability to get on base (he's hitting .197). But he has as many homers as Ks (four). Patterson struck out 168 times in 2004. Last year, just 65 times in 503 at-bats. It's impossible for him to
continue to hit .148 on balls in play.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: He struck out about once per game back in 2004. The rate has steadily gone down to the point where he's K'ed just seven times in 19 games this year. He should be walking more, but the 1:1 ratio evokes a .300 hitter. His current .176 average with runners in scoring position is a fluke suppressing his RBI total.

David Wright, 3B, Mets: He's just about perfect as a hitter. He has 17 walks and just 9 Ks. That's evidence of a quantum leap relative to 2007, when he K'ed 115 times and walked 94. Wright is making this leap from an MVP-caliber level.

Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: He's not going to hit .357. But he's walked about as much as he's K'ed, which means he's being selective enough to hit .280. Yes, he did that last year, too, and hit only .256. But that .276 average on balls in play was unlucky. In 2005, it was .336, and it's .383 this year. His power is also spiking: homers on 24 percent of fly balls.

Hold

Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians: Last year, his first as a regular, he K'ed 94 times in 484 at-bats. This year, just 9 times in 68 at-bats. He also has 13 walks, the kind of plate discipline that you look for from impact hitters. But the power has been very disappointing: homers on just 5.9 percent of fly balls (average is about 11 percent). Perhaps he's cut down his swing too much.

Matt Diaz, OF, Braves: He's yet to walk in 71 at-bats (19 Ks). Yet he still hits .300 because of a .400 average on balls in play. That latter number is not a total fluke when you consider that 23.5 percent of his batted balls are line drives, about 80 percent of which become hits. Diaz's line-drive rate is well above average.

Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks: He has just four Ks and seven walks through Tuesday's action. That's a profile of a .300 hitter for sure, even if he doesn't continue to hit .345 on balls in play (last year he hit .292 on them). He's an extreme fly-ball hitter, which should keep enough homers coming despite his middling power.

Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: I guess the elbow we worried about is fine. He's hitting .352 with 16 RBI. That's without getting a chance to shine with runners in scoring position, as he's been walked 20 times against just 7 Ks. Pujols is getting frustrated by the respect opposing pitchers are showing him, resorting this week to swinging at 3-0 pitches well out of the strike zone in a futile attempt to keep at-bats alive.

Sell

Bill Hall, 3B, Brewers: He's swinging for the fences, but 2 walks and 25 Ks is the kind of ratio we would expect from a .200 hitter, so don't expect that his current sub-Mendoza average is a fluke.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: Exhibit A in the case against Gomez being ready for the majors: 2 walks, 24 Ks. Yes, he has nine steals. But he'll be back in the minors by the end of May.

Hunter Pence, OF, Astros: That K/BB ratio was the black mark last year. Most ignored it. This year, it's unavoidable: 20 Ks and 3 BBs gets you a .220 average most times. And it's not like he's trading contact for power, as his rate on homers on fly balls is a paltry 4.5 percent.

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