Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

A generation ago, cookie-cutter ballparks prevailed, largely neutralizing the impact on stats such as runs and homers.

Today's trend to come up with unique, compelling stadium architectures has resulted in parks that can significantly impact hitting and pitching statistics.

Let's look at parks that increase or decrease scoring by 10 percent or more, not just last year, but according to the Bill James Handbook, for the 2005-2007 period. Remember, since teams only play half their games at home, any park effects have just half the impact on individual batter/pitcher statistics.

Here's how these effects are calculated. Last year, the Royals and all their opponents scored 754 runs at games at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium and 730 runs while playing each other at other parks. So Kauffman Stadium increased scoring 3 percent last year (the difference between how those same teams scored while playing at Kauffman versus playing each other at all other parks).

We'll also look at the parks that have a significant positive impact on homers overall (again, at least 10 percent last year and for the entire 2005-07 period) and whether that impact applies to all hitters, or mostly to either righties or lefties.

By our run-scoring standards, there's only one true pitcher's park in baseball: the Padres' PETCO Park. Last year, runs were off 25 percent there, and they're down about 20 percent when you include the prior two years. So, expect Pitcher X to get a 10-percent cut in his ERA (4.00 ERA becomes 3.60).

The only parks to significantly and consistently boost scoring are the Diamondbacks' Chase Field and the Rockies' Coors Field. Those parks also increase homers greatly for righty and lefty hitters.

Consider, though, that you ultimately reach a point with park factors when parks that, say, boost scoring, don't register that way because too many other parks do, too. The rising scoring tide lifts all boats.

There are plenty more homer-friendly parks. Besides Coors and Chase, Wrigley Field, U.S. Cellular (White Sox), Great American Ballpark (Reds), Citizens Bank (Phillies) and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) greatly benefit all hitters. And Camden Yards (Orioles) offers righties a major boost while Yankee Stadium, as has been the case for generations, benefits lefties.

There are a surprising number of homer-suppressing parks: the Metrodome (especially for lefties), Angel Stadium (lefties), McAfee Stadium (A's, righties), PNC Park (Pirates, minus-30 percent homer for righty hitters), AT&T Park (Giants) and Busch Stadium (Cardinals).

Now let's (mostly) use park effects to make some player recommendations.

Buy

Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: He just swung a bat for two days in a row and should return from his broken finger inside two weeks. Rolen's shoulder is repaired and he's getting a 40-percent homer boost in moving from Busch to Rogers. Upside: .300, 25 homers from May through September.

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: This well-rounded talent had 30-homer potential in a neutral park, and U.S. Cellular improves those odds. Rehabbing Jerry Owens is not in the team's plans with Nick Swisher installed as center fielder and leadoff hitter "for the foreseeable future."

Greg Maddux, P, Padres: Combine his unwillingness to hurt himself with walks with a great home park and you have a guy you can run with without fear for at least 125 innings or so before the toll starts to wear (Maddux is 42).

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: Like Quentin, more of a long-term investment. But there's upside for 2008. Jones improved dramatically three minor league years in a row. He has great raw power and gets half his games in a park that favors righties.

Jon Garland, P, Angels: He was smashed in his one home start (two homers), but should be helped going forward. He has a 5.01 career April ERA, 4.16 and 4.09 in May and June, respectively. Should get a 5-percent decrease in ERA by moving from Chicago to Los Angeles (Anaheim).

Hold

B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: He's back early from Tommy John, and reports are he's barely hitting 90 mph with the fastball. Big deal. Average fastball velocities in 2005: 90.9, 2006: 90.6.

Danny Haren, P, Diamondbacks: Park factors are less important when a guy like Haren moves from the AL to the NL and gets to face pitchers instead of designated hitters.

Sell

Zack Greinke, P, Royals: John Danks is more on-topic; don't believe his sudden ground-ball rate. Greinke's park boosts scoring a mild 5 percent. But he's benefited greatly by great luck on balls in play: only 22 percent hits, average is 30 percent. And he's stranded 97 percent of runners (average is 71 percent). The dominance isn't there (about 3 Ks per 9 IP).

Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Sell steady-stroker Kotchman high since his park will hurt his power pretty dramatically (over 20-percent power decline for lefties). Three of his four homers this year are on the road.

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