Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The injuries keep coming fast and furious in Major League baseball.

Last year, according to Rick Wilton of the Baseball Injury Report, 404 players accounted for 477 disabled list moves. There were 109 players on the DL by opening day last year. This year, there were 103, but Wilton expects this year's total to increase further due to retroactive moves.

Some more grim numbers: 28,524 days were lost to the disabled list last year – a 6,000-day increase from 2006.

Speculation by Wilton and others who follow injuries was that stricter testing for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) such as steroids would decrease injuries.

"Steroids put more stress on the joints, tendons and ligaments by too quickly building muscle mass," says Wilton. "So less steroids should mean less strains and tears. The decrease we saw in 2006 made sense. But the spike to record levels in 2007 was a surprise. The early returns for 2008 make last year seem more like a trend."

Wilton believes that the culprit might be HGH (human growth hormone), which presently cannot be detected by tests.

Andy Andres, a muscle physiologist and natural science professor who also teaches a sabermetrics course at Boston University, disagrees. "HGH has not been proven to increase strength in young people."

So Andres doesn't see it playing a role in joint and tendon injuries. He still suspects PEDs are to blame. "There are designer steroids out there that cannot be detected by tests. And there's clearly a great incentive to cheat."

Wilton says that most of the players who get caught now by the testing are minor leaguers taking horse steroids because they're cheap. Masking agents are also expensive.

Andres wants to see another year's total of the days spent on the disabled list to see how severe these injuries are. Wilton does suspect that teams are being cautious now in disabling pitchers, especially, at the first hint of trouble.

Another factor, according to Wilton, can be the increased emphasis on weight training by players discouraged from using steroids. "More weights and less stretching equals more strains and pulls."

Andres cautions against using injury data and performance trends alone as proof of anything involving PEDs. "There's a good chance a lot of what we see is just random variance. But there's a great urge to say, 'This is proof of steroid use.' Or, 'This is proof of steroid decline.'"

With an assist from Wilton, let's now forecast the futures of some injured big-league stars.

Buy

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: He starts this week in Single A, and then the plan is to get another start in Triple A before being reevaluated about 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Says Wilton, "His command and velocity were off. They want him to build arm strength. Worst-case scenario is that it takes the full four to six weeks. But expect him to be as good as new relatively soon."

John Lackey, P, Angels: "I'm bullish that he'll be 100 percent very quickly." Lackey has a tricep strain and is ahead of schedule for returning in early May.

Milton Bradley, OF/DH, Rangers: Not all torn ACLs are the same. "If it's not a major tear, it can be almost patched, for lack of a better term. Bradley's recovery is record-breaking, but there have been major strides as the number of procedures has increased. Recovery estimates are baseline numbers, a fancy way of saying, 'Guesses.'"

Brad Lidge, P, Phillies: The Phanatics already have seen enough of Tom Gordon (five opening day runs). But Wilton expects Lidge to be fine when he comes off the disabled list Saturday.

Hold

B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: The current timetable is for him to return April 11, at least a month ahead of the earliest part of the 12- to 18-month recovery typical for Tommy John surgery. "The slider will be the big challenge for him. Relievers can come back sooner because they put less strain on the arm. But I still would not expect him to resume closer duties until the second half of this season, though he clearly is on pace for a full recovery."

Pedro Martinez, P, Mets: Forgetting about yesterday's hamstring injury and focusing on the shoulder, Wilton says, "His velocity hasn't come back and his surgery was groundbreaking, with holes drilled into bone and his shoulder basically glued back together. However, he appears remarkably smooth in his delivery even though his breaking stuff doesn't appear to be quite as sharp as pre-surgery."

Sell

Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: "Three years ago, Pujols suffered a partially torn UCL (elbow) ligament. He was told to strengthen surrounding muscles and avoid surgery for two or three years." Now, however, the check is due. "I'd say there's a 50- or 60-percent chance he breaks down due to inflammation and that surgery is performed at some point this season to give him a better chance of playing the majority of 2009."

Joel Zumaya, P, Tigers: Wilton: "He had major shoulder surgery and I doubt he returns to form this year. His future beyond that is in serious question, because we have no track record for injuries like his not caused by pitching." Zumaya reportedly was hurt lifting a box.

Rocco Baldelli, OF, Rays: "He has a very unusual condition where the cells don't regenerate and disperse waste quickly enough. It's obviously very hard to be a world-class athlete with this type of thing." Best wishes to Baldelli, as this goes beyond baseball.

Eric Chavez, 3B, A's: Four months removed from surgery is a long time to be having spasms and needing epidurals, says Wilton. "About one-third of back surgeries don't fix the problem." There's no real timetable for Chavez to return, as he's currently waiting for pain to subside.

Scott Kazmir, P, Rays: "I'm worried about him. I'm afraid we haven't gotten the full story about his elbow and that a True Confession is coming."

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