AL Stock Watch: Don't dump Buchholz
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April 13, 2008 - April 19, 2008 ArchivesApril 18
By David Ferris We're patient with hitters and panicky with pitchers, that’s just how fantasy owners are raised to be. With that in mind, let’s start this week’s portfolio perusal with an examination of the pitchers who are driving us, or driving us crazy. Pitchers BUY Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians: His electric 2007 season (five wins, three saves, 1.47 ERA, 0.76 ratio, nine walks against 80 strikeouts) didn’t go unnoticed in the fantasy community, as the ghoul watch started early on Joe Borowski. Manager Eric Wedge wanted to keep Borowski for easy saves while Betancourt pitched out of the jams, but that's not currently an option with Borowski (triceps) on the disabled list. Betancourt has always had the talent and moxie to close, and now he gets the ball in the ninth inning. Take it and run with it, especially in stock-market leagues where the buy-in cost is marginal. Brian Bannister, SP, Royals: He’s smart, he's crafty and he’s off to a sizzling start (3-0, 0.86 ERA), making a strong case that 2007’s breakthrough was legitimate. Bannister is never going to win a strikeout title but he has spiked that category mildly this year, and he hasn’t been picking on weak offenses (Yankees, Tigers). The Royals have a lot to offer to the fantasy public, accept it and buy in. SELL, NEXT MONTH C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: He’s had four starts and they’ve all been terrible, that we know. Now what? On the down side, he’s never been the bastion of physical fitness, and his 2007 workload came with a 64-inning spike (including playoffs). But Sabathia was hitting the mid-90s in his last start and it was his decision to break off contract extension talks in the spring, so I’m inclined to think there’s not a major injury here. It’s too late to think about a sell – the price has collapsed too much – so at this point you might as well wait it out, though I can’t blame you if you decide to bench Sabathia until he shows at least one quality turn. A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays: He’ll be wild sometimes and he’ll have rocky turns sometimes, that comes with the territory. But when Burnett manages just nine strikeouts over 17.1 innings while batters tee off at a .347 clip, red flags start falling. Keep in mind he’s passed the 170-inning mark just once over the last five seasons. You probably can’t sell Burnett for a lot right this second – similar to the Sabathia situation – but at the first sign of daylight, make a move. Here’s one stock you should be nervous about. HOLD Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: He’s had three messy turns (two against the Yankees), but hey, the AL East is a tough place to make your fortune. With 12 strikeouts over 14.2 innings, it’s not like his stuff has totally deserted him. Look for a step forward against Texas next week. Hitters BUY Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Maybe the bean counters in Tampa Bay have changed their ways; the club not only recalled Longoria a week ago, but it quickly locked him up, getting a nine-year contract (six years plus three option years) put together Friday. Longoria was a risky pick for non-keeper leagues back in March – it looked like the Rays would keep him in the minors for at least a third of the season – but if you took the plunge, enjoy your reward. Upside for 2008: .300-85-25-90. SELL Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: He’ll be around .300 and in a full season he’ll score 90 runs or more, but there’s plenty of downside here; Polanco doesn’t have much power or speed, and he’s been injury-prone for most of his career. He’s fine as a stat-collector in AL-only groups, but you need to shoot higher in mixed leagues. There’s plenty of buy-low potential on the Detroit offense, but here’s one name you don’t want to target. HOLD Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: Don’t let the .244 average throw you too much, because everything else is in line (four homers, 11 runs, 15 RBIs, six walks against just seven strikeouts). Quentin needed to mark his territory with Jerry Owens out, and so far he’s done just that. Joey Gathright, OF, Royals: He ran like crazy in the spring, and it’s carried over to the regular season (seven bags). Gathright drops down to the fourth outfield spot when everyone is healthy in Kansas City, but David DeJesus (ankle, toe) hasn’t been right this month. He’s a specialist, sure, but the upside for Gathright is 60 steals. 
By Rob Steingall These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 21-27, unless otherwise suggested. AMERICAN LEAGUE Put' em in J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox: Drew has been hot the past week, scoring and driving in runs as the Red Sox begin to warm up in the early going. He’ll face the Angels and the Rays next week, two teams who currently lack their imposing front-line hurlers (John Lackey and Scott Kazmir). His hot finish to last season (1.072 OPS in September) indicates a possible rebound, so take a flier on him now and enjoy the production he’ll provide in one of the best lineups in the majors. Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians: Betancourt was dominating last season, posting a 1.47 ERA and 0.76 WHIP along with a strikeout per inning. With Joe Borowski out for the next month with a triceps strain, Betancourt now takes the ball in the ninth for the Tribe. Bench 'em Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: The traditionally consistent Polanco has started off the year on the wrong foot thus far, and his stiff lower back certainly isn’t helping matters. He hit below .300 in a month only once last season, and looks to be feeling the pressure of high expectations in Detroit this season. Polanco’s normally high contact rate (95 percent in ’07) should help him rebound, but his troublesome back and slow start should force him to your bench for now. C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: After getting bombed in his first four starts, two of which came against the offensive juggernaut that is decidedly not the Oakland A’s, Sabathia sports an ERA of 13.50 heading into this week. He’ll be a two-start pitcher, but faces a much-improved Royals offense and the Yankees. He’s walked as many as he’s struck out thus far (14/14 K/BB), and has given up nearly two hits an inning. His workload increased by over 50 innings last season, and it may have caught up with him. NATIONAL LEAGUE Put' em in Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: After a sluggish first few weeks of the season, Kemp has started to heat up and earn regular at-bats for the Dodgers. He faces the Reds on the road, then Diamondbacks and the Rockies at home later this week. Kemp hit 9 if his 10 home runs last season at Chavez Ravine, so this should bode well for success. He could be Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: Burrell is off to a great start thus far in his contract year, and seems to always be an underappreciated source of power in mixed leagues. He pays a visit to Coors Field and Miller Park next week, where he hit three homers in five games last Bench 'em Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins: Never a threat to post a high batting average, Uggla is struggling right now to keep himself over the Mendoza line to start the year. His power is elite for a middle infielder (31 home runs in ’07), but has been lacking so far this season. With Miguel Cabrera moving on to Detroit, Uggla should see a decline in his runs scored this year, unless of course Jorge Cantu can match his career year of ’05. Don’t expect a repeat of the J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: Now batting in front of the pitcher, Hardy seems to be dropping further and further out of the good graces of fantasy owners, especially with a healthy crop of options at short this year. Hardy starts a home stand next week against the
April 17
By David Ferris Tax day may have come and gone, but the audits never stop if you're tied to a fantasy roster or two. Here's a peak inside our notebook for some buy-and-sell ideas. Pitchers BUY Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals: He came into his own during the second half of 2007, and it's carried over into a nice 2008 push-off (two wins, 2.78 ERA, three walks, 16 strikeouts). With three decent pitches, a roomy park and a cushy division to attack, Wainwright could be a sleeper candidate in the Cy Young race. Jair Jurrgens, SP, Braves: He's more of a crafty righty than anything, but he’s got enough guile to have 13 strikeouts in 18.1 innings, and he hasn’t given up a homer yet. The 3.93 ERA is likely to come down, as Jurrgens has been unlucky on balls in play (.341). SELL Dave Bush, SP, Brewers: He's off to a flying start in the underachiever category, once again putting up mediocre numbers that fall far short of where the peripherals peg him to be. Stop chasing on this one – let someone else ponder the Dave Bush riddle while their ERA gets blown up. When Milwaukee's entire rotation gets healthy, Bush could easily wind up in the bullpen. HOLD Randy Wolf, SP, Padres: His three starts came in pitcher havens (two in San Diego, one in San Francisco), and that covers up a lot of mistakes. But when you've got 18 punchouts in 19 innings, you’re doing something right. The biggest issue with Wolf is staying healthy; elbow and shoulder problems have kept him occupied for four straight seasons. Ride the wave for another month or so, then start letting your opponents know you're ready to "move a pitcher." Scott Olsen, SP, Marlins: He’s had two solid starts but the 3.05 ERA is artificially low by a run, and six walks against 10 strikeouts doesn’t make anyone weak in the knees. Olsen’s started to rebuild his confidence and might wind up being one of the surprise packages of the summer, but let’s not consider him back to 2006 form prematurely. More evidence is needed. Hitters BUY Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: The most encouraging part of his hot start is the production on the road (.952 slugging) and against right-handed pitching (six homers); when Burrell tackles both of those challenges, you know he’s locked in. We'll live with the strikeouts so long as the walk count stays in line; he's clearly seeing the ball well. Fantasy owners would like to see Burrell close a little more often – Charlie Manuel can’t wait to get Burrell's glove out of the game – but one thing at a time. Mike Fontenot, 2B, Cubs: He’ll be passable in average, steal a base now and again, help the counting stats – at least while Alfonso Soriano is out. This is the type of player you ignore in a mixed league, but NL-only players will find Fontenot useful for the next month. SELL Corey Patterson, OF, Reds: Normally you don’t want to worry about 1-for-19 stretches, because they come and go. But does Dusty Baker have a long-term plan in Cincinnati, or any real commitment to Patterson? Given the collection of utility types the Reds have who can play center field, not to mention stud prospect Jay Bruce waiting in Triple-A, I’m not confident we’ll see 500 at-bats from Patterson over the balance of the year. And even if Patterson is on the field, there’s no guarantee he’ll help you much in two of the five categories (he brings plenty of batting-average risk, and won’t bat in an RBI position). HOLD Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: He’s become a more professional hitter this year, making consistent contact, working deeper into counts, getting quality pitches to hit; witness the grooved fastball from Takashi Saito that McLouth clouted for a game-winning homer Monday. The snappy start might be unsustainable (.382 average, 13 runs, 14 RBIs), but it's certainly real; we saw the power and speed last year, and the contact-rate spike is a very good sign. The only question about McLouth this spring was related to job security, but that’s not an issue now.
April 16
By Michael Salfino A generation ago, cookie-cutter ballparks prevailed, largely neutralizing the impact on stats such as runs and homers. Today's trend to come up with unique, compelling stadium architectures has resulted in parks that can significantly impact hitting and pitching statistics. Let's look at parks that increase or decrease scoring by 10 percent or more, not just last year, but according to the Bill James Handbook, for the 2005-2007 period. Remember, since teams only play half their games at home, any park effects have just half the impact on individual batter/pitcher statistics. Here's how these effects are calculated. Last year, the Royals and all their opponents scored 754 runs at games at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium and 730 runs while playing each other at other parks. So Kauffman Stadium increased scoring 3 percent last year (the difference between how those same teams scored while playing at Kauffman versus playing each other at all other parks). We'll also look at the parks that have a significant positive impact on homers overall (again, at least 10 percent last year and for the entire 2005-07 period) and whether that impact applies to all hitters, or mostly to either righties or lefties. By our run-scoring standards, there's only one true pitcher's park in baseball: the Padres' PETCO Park. Last year, runs were off 25 percent there, and they're down about 20 percent when you include the prior two years. So, expect Pitcher X to get a 10-percent cut in his ERA (4.00 ERA becomes 3.60). The only parks to significantly and consistently boost scoring are the Diamondbacks' Chase Field and the Rockies' Coors Field. Those parks also increase homers greatly for righty and lefty hitters. Consider, though, that you ultimately reach a point with park factors when parks that, say, boost scoring, don't register that way because too many other parks do, too. The rising scoring tide lifts all boats. There are plenty more homer-friendly parks. Besides Coors and Chase, Wrigley Field, U.S. Cellular (White Sox), Great American Ballpark (Reds), Citizens Bank (Phillies) and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) greatly benefit all hitters. And Camden Yards (Orioles) offers righties a major boost while Yankee Stadium, as has been the case for generations, benefits lefties. There are a surprising number of homer-suppressing parks: the Metrodome (especially for lefties), Angel Stadium (lefties), McAfee Stadium (A's, righties), PNC Park (Pirates, minus-30 percent homer for righty hitters), AT&T Park (Giants) and Busch Stadium (Cardinals). Now let's (mostly) use park effects to make some player recommendations. Buy Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: He just swung a bat for two days in a row and should return from his broken finger inside two weeks. Rolen's shoulder is repaired and he's getting a 40-percent homer boost in moving from Busch to Rogers. Upside: .300, 25 homers from May through September. Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: This well-rounded talent had 30-homer potential in a neutral park, and U.S. Cellular improves those odds. Rehabbing Jerry Owens is not in the team's plans with Nick Swisher installed as center fielder and leadoff hitter "for the foreseeable future." Greg Maddux, P, Padres: Combine his unwillingness to hurt himself with walks with a great home park and you have a guy you can run with without fear for at least 125 innings or so before the toll starts to wear (Maddux is 42). Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: Like Quentin, more of a long-term investment. But there's upside for 2008. Jones improved dramatically three minor league years in a row. He has great raw power and gets half his games in a park that favors righties. Jon Garland, P, Angels: He was smashed in his one home start (two homers), but should be helped going forward. He has a 5.01 career April ERA, 4.16 and 4.09 in May and June, respectively. Should get a 5-percent decrease in ERA by moving from Chicago to Los Angeles (Anaheim). Hold B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: He's back early from Tommy John, and reports are he's barely hitting 90 mph with the fastball. Big deal. Average fastball velocities in 2005: 90.9, 2006: 90.6. Danny Haren, P, Diamondbacks: Park factors are less important when a guy like Haren moves from the AL to the NL and gets to face pitchers instead of designated hitters. Sell Zack Greinke, P, Royals: John Danks is more on-topic; don't believe his sudden ground-ball rate. Greinke's park boosts scoring a mild 5 percent. But he's benefited greatly by great luck on balls in play: only 22 percent hits, average is 30 percent. And he's stranded 97 percent of runners (average is 71 percent). The dominance isn't there (about 3 Ks per 9 IP). Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Sell steady-stroker Kotchman high since his park will hurt his power pretty dramatically (over 20-percent power decline for lefties). Three of his four homers this year are on the road.
By David Ferris All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio). * = check status Last Update: 4/15 Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers
By David Ferris All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases). * = check status Last Update: 4/15 First Base/DH Second Base Shortstop Third Base Outfield Catcher
April 13
By Rob Steingall These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 14th through April 20, unless otherwise suggested. AMERICAN LEAGUE Put 'em in Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox: Crede has been on fire the past week, collecting multi-hit games and driving in runs at a torrid pace. He’ll face the Orioles and the A’s at home next week, and will finish up the week on the road against the Rays -- all favorable matchups. In his breakout '06 campaign, Crede slugged 20 homers at US Cellular Field, and he won’t be facing either Rich Harden or Scott Kazmir this week. Frank Thomas, DH, Blue Jays: There are good days ahead for the veteran slugger, who faces the Orioles at Camden Yards before returning to Rogers Centre to face the questionable Rangers and Tigers staffs. Thomas seems to have found his power stroke, blasting homers in three straight games in the early going to boost his confidence. Thomas is a good source of power in mixed leagues, and should provide an adequate batting average in these matchups. Bench 'em Jose Guillen, OF, Royals: Guillen has started off the season ice cold, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he has hit below .240 in April each of the past two seasons. Perhaps he was distracted by the lingering threat of suspension for steroid use, which is now Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B, Rays: Started off his career in the majors last season scorching hot, but this season he's icy cold. Through the first few weeks, the Rays leadoff man has failed to reach base with any consistency, making his .359 on-base percentage from ’07 look like a fluke. Second-base eligibility gives his limited skill set a bit more value, but not at his current level of performance. NATIONAL LEAGUE Put' em in Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: An all-or-nothing hitter, Reynolds Randy Johnson, SP, Diamondbacks: After another back surgery, Johnson resumes his quest for 300 wins on Monday against the Giants. He’ll make two starts this week, also facing the light-hitting Padres. He struck out seven batters in his final rehab start in the minors, a sign that his stuff is still good enough to help out your fantasy squad every fifth day. Bench 'em Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: An early-season sleeper by many fantasy experts, Encarnacion has disappointed thus far, providing little value to the brave owners who have stuck by him. He’ll face the Cubs and the Brewers this week, arguably the two best rotations in the division. He struggled early on last season, but went out with a bang over the final two months, belting nine homers and driving in 35 runs while hitting well over .300. Friday night, he stranded seven baserunners. Reserve him for now. Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Hitting in a weak Giants lineup, Rowand certainly isn’t about to repeat his ’07 performance. He may still provide you with a decent batting average, but that’s about all. He’s consistently had nobody to drive in over the first few weeks of the season. He’ll face a tough Arizona rotation to start the week before closing with the surprising Cardinals on the road. Don’t waste your time here.
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