AL Stock Watch: Warwick's Wheeler not a bad bet
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Projo Fantasy Sports Blog |
April 6, 2008 - April 12, 2008 ArchivesApril 12
By David Ferris Forget what you thought was true in March – the goal now is to figure out the new season, and the change in player values, quicker than your opponents. Here’s a look into our current scouting notebook. Pitchers BUY Dana Eveland, SP, Athletics: His tidy spring (five walks, 17 strikeouts) has carried over to the regular season, where Eveland has been very sharp over two starts (one run, four walks, 13 strikeouts). Keep in mind a few things on the hard-throwing lefty: he’s still just 24; he’ll get half of his starts in a roomy park; and he was once considered a hot prospect in the Milwaukee system. There’s a pedigree here, and an upside worth speculating on. SELL Edwin Jackson, SP, Rays: We’ve seen two impressive outings to be sure, but until he learns to harness his control (six walks over 14 innings), it’s going to be a roller-coaster ride. The heavy lineups in the American League East will be heard from eventually. Rich Harden, SP, Athletics: A strained back muscle has him on the disabled list, to the surprise of absolutely no one. Harden’s become the type of guy you look to sell high after any small sample of success; he simply can’t be trusted to go deep into any season. You have to wonder why Billy Beane hasn’t been able to flip this right-hander like he has so many name-brand arms of the past (Hudson, Mulder, Haren). HOLD Dan Wheeler, RP, Rays: He’s been perfect over 5.1 April innings (along with four strikeouts), and there isn’t a lot of competition in the Tampa Bay bullpen. Troy Percival? Good luck staying healthy for a full season. Al Reyes? Don’t tase me, bro. Wheeler is one of the best speculative save plays in the American League. Joe Saunders, SP, Angels: The critics argue that his stuff is ordinary, insisting that Saunders will have problems on days where his command isn’t sharp. The believers point to a strikeout spike, some moderate success last year, and pedigree (Saunders was a first-round pick back in 2002.) Backed by a solid defensive club and a park you can succeed in, let’s give Saunders the benefit of the doubt for now. He’s pitching over his head through two 2008 turns, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have fantasy relevance for the balance of the year, even in mixed leagues. Hitters BUY David Murphy, OF, Rangers: He looked like a fourth outfielder to begin the year, but Ron Washington likes the kid and seems ready to find 450-500 at-bats for him. That doesn’t make him fantasy-relevant in all formats – mixed leaguers will want a more regular option in the outfield – but Murphy can probably duplicate what Marlon Byrd did last year, with a few extra steals thrown in. Upside: .300-75-15-70-15. Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles: Some believe in April trends and some don’t, but there’s no denying the resume on Huff, which shows he’s never hit in the first month of the year (.239/.312..411). He’s off to a nifty start for the surprising Orioles (10 for 33, two homers, one steal), and at 32 Huff is young enough to dream about a career year. The supporting cast in Baltimore is better than you think; Nick Markakis has superstar written all over him, Adam Jones is in the same class, and Luke Scott is ready to take a full-time job and club 25-30 home runs. SELL Casey Blake, 3B/OF, Indians: He was buried in the Cleveland lineup for most of last fall, and that’s been the case again this year as he struggles to find his swing (5 for 27, seven strikeouts, .259 slugging). Blake turns 35 this summer and probably shouldn’t be in the everyday lineup for a contending club much longer; the deep and proactive Indians probably won’t settle for this sort of mediocrity all year. HOLD Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Here’s a good example of how offseason hype can ruin a player’s fantasy value, especially when he runs for a high-profile club like the Red Sox. Ellsbury has been anxious at the plate, he’s losing some at-bats to Coco Crisp, and he’s spending most of his time in the bottom third of the order. Too talented not to turn it around? You bet. Worthy of the lofty expectations we saw in March? Not yet. 
April 10
By David Ferris Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, we get it. But adjusting to the ebb-and-flow of a new season is essential to fantasy success; you need to re-calibrate player values quicker than your opponents. Here's a peak at some current movers in the market. BUY Zach Duke, SP, Pirates: A reasonable spring and a decent first start got Duke on the radar, and we really like how he threw the ball against Chicago on Wednesday (seven innings, one run, one walk, seven strikeouts). Perhaps new pitching coach Jeff Andrews can help make Duke relevant again to fantasy owners. Peter Moylan/Manny Acosta, RP, Braves: Rafael Soriano went on the disabled list Wednesday with elbow tendinitis, so Bobby Cox needs a new ninth-inning guy in Atlanta. Acosta's hard stuff fits the profile of a closer, but Moylan's control might make him better suited for the job in the long run. The first save chance, and conversion, will go a long way in determining who gets the front seat in the committee. Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds: Everyone in Cincinnati is gaga for Johnny Cueto and rightfully so, but don't sleep on Volquez, who followed up an electric spring with a solid turn against Philadelphia (5.1 innings, one run, two walks, eight strikeouts). If you didn't get Cueto off waivers, no worries; perhaps you can still get a consolation prize in Volquez, who has just as much promise for 2008. The Reds certainly didn't trade Josh Hamilton for nothing. Dave Bush, SP, Brewers: Normally he puts up a mediocre ERA that belies his solid peripherals. So far this year it's "crummy ERA, crummy peripherals." The Brewers aren't going to wait forever – don't be surprised if Bush is working out of the bullpen in May. Todd Wellemeyer, SP, Cardinals: He doesn't have a track record as a starter, but 13 whiffs over 12 innings get us interested, and he draws the punchless Giants over the weekend. Scout Wellemeyer one more time before you decide on how to play this one. Bronson Arroyo, SP, Reds: He's been bitten by the gopher (five homers) over two rocky starts, but three walks against 11 strikeouts suggest better times are ahead. Split the difference between Arroyo 2006 (great) and 2007 (not so much), and you come up with a serviceable fantasy arm. Jeff Keppinger, SS, Reds: He quietly hit .332 in 241 at-bats last year without a lot of fanfare, and he's off to a big start so far in 2008 (.382, two homers, .647 slugging). That's probably enough to keep him in the lineup even after Alex Gonzalez comes off the disabled list. Bill Hall, 3B/OF, Brewers: If you can handle an average that might not pass .270, there's a lot of other stuff to like here: 30-homer potential, two-position eligibility, and aggressive running on the bases, even as it's not a percentage play for Hall. The finger issue from the early part of camp didn't turn out to be anything. Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: He's never been a dynamic power hitter or base stealer, more of a chip-in guy, but good luck posting healthy numbers through a nagging rib injury. A crummy supporting cast and a big home park don't help the cause either; Rowand signing with the Giants was like David Caruso leaving NYPD Blue. Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: We wondered if a mediocre 2007 season would spark a comeback season, but so far that hasn't been the case (perhaps it's hard to motivate a guy who gets a two-year, $36-million package off his worst season). Jones came to camp overweight (Joe Torre concedes this), didn't hit much in spring, and it's been even worse since the real games started (4 for 31, 10 strikeouts). The Dodgers know all about overpaid outfielders, of course, with Juan Pierre on the roster. Wait until Jones hits his first homer, then let your opponents know that you're "ready to move an outfielder." Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: He's allergic to taking a walk and he's no longer a factor on the bases, so forget about his 14-for-43 start with a couple of homers – it's smoke all the way. Find someone who's desperate for a middle and lock in your mild profit while you can. Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: There's never been any question about his power, but he's still striking out too much and keep in mind Chad Tracy is expected back in May. Perhaps the best time to sell Reynolds is right now. HOLD Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: He's off to a 2-for-24 start and Dusty Baker is famous for his distrust of young players. So why hold onto Easy E? Because April is typically his worst month (.724 OPS), and we still like his eye, power potential, and home park.
April 9
By Michael Salfino The small sample sizes in the early baseball season create lots of fascinating story lines. Let's get through as many as we can with the usual caveats. All stats are through Tuesday's action. The pitchers are ahead of the hitters. The Major League average is .252 with 4.3 runs per game versus .268 and 4.8 runs last year. The Tigers are the poster boys for April futility: hitting .234 and scoring 2.1 runs per game (on pace for about 325). Detroit is an AL worst .149 with runners in scoring position (the Rockies are worst overall with RISP, .111). Detroit was tabbed to win 92 games by Vegas (actually 92.5). Let's call that a .570 winning percentage. They've lost their first seven games. Odds of a true .570 team losing seven in row: about 1 in 370. The Orioles were expected to win about 40 percent of their games (65.5 was their over/under Vegas total). Odds of them winning six in a row were about one in 250. Odds are that the Tigers are worse than we thought; the Orioles better. Baltimore has been the best defensive team in baseball, converting .788 of balls in play into outs (average is .700). The Reds are the best defensive team thus far in the NL: .776. Worst defensive teams by league: Giants (.614) and Rangers (.649). Seattle is hitting .227 on balls in play. On the other end of the big- league spectrum, the Brewers sit at .345. Jason Kendall leads the team with a .526 average, but bats ninth (behind the pitcher). The Cardinals are also batting the pitcher eighth. Why? After all, the No. 8 hitter comes to bat more than No. 9 – about 18 times more in a normal season. Some of those times are going to be big, but, of course, that's when they will be removed for a pinch hitter. Moving a more certain out (your pitcher) farther away from the better hitters at the top of your lineup provides a very slight boost to scoring: estimated to be somewhere between one-half run to three runs over the 162-game season. The discrepancy relates mostly to assumptions regarding the strength of your Nos. 2-4 hitters. Now let's look at some individual performers to find the best buying and selling opportunities. Buy Rick Ankiel, OF, Cardinals: I'm pro "freak" with these next two guys. Ankiel has very little professional experience as a hitter and continues to excel in the majors. To me, that means the sky is the limit. Upside: .290 with 40 homers. Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers: Like Ankiel, Hamilton pretty much skipped the minors due to personal problems that limited him to 90 minor league at-bats between 2002 and his big-league call up last year. His upside might be higher than Ankiel's, but consider his longstanding substance abuse problems. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: Looking for a bright side: the .063 on balls in play is textbook bad luck. And his rate of 4.7 pitches per plate appearances is fourth-best in the Bigs – a sign of better things to come. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers: He's hitting .071 on balls in play. Just flip over his baseball card and you can see that he's one of the two or three best hitters in the game, with his best days likely still ahead. Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: The Marlins' defense is again atrocious (.632 on balls in play). So his ERA will remain inflated, but not to this extent. He striking out about a batter per inning and walking less than three per nine. Hold Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: Of course, his .556 on balls in play is unsustainable. But Japan's best player has a perfectly fundamentally sound game in all facets that certainly will not get Lost in Translation. Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: One-trick pony Juan Pierre has been benched. It's Matt Kemp who sits when Joe Torre throws Pierre a bone. Ethier is third-best at 4.8 pitches per plate appearance and looks like a solid No. 3 hitter. Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds: Most impressive is his fearlessness with a changeup that's nothing special but complements his gas well enough. He's giving up lots of fly balls, so there will be rough patches with the homers. But they won't be crippling given his good control (zero walks). Sell Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: The power (five homers) is real. And he's the most extreme fly-ball hitter in the league to date. However, he's still striking out too much, so he'll be prone to lengthy slumps. Chad Tracy (knee) will ultimately threaten playing time. Lock in profits. Michael Bourn, OF, Astros: He will keep running because it's all he can do. He won't play versus lefties and might hit .270 with a .340 on-base percentage and no power if everything breaks right. Todd Wellemeyer, P, Cardinals: Nothing in his lengthy big-league history suggests he can continue his solid pitching or his prodigious K-rates. Yes, he's sported decent K/9 in the past, but only as a reliever. Expect his rate of 12 Ks per nine innings to be cut in half and his ERA to double as a result.
April 8
By David Ferris All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio). * = check status Last Update: 4/8 Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers
By David Ferris All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases). * = check status Last Update: 4/8 First Base Second Base Shortstop Third Base Outfield Catcher
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