Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

April 2, 2008 Archives

By Michael Salfino

The injuries keep coming fast and furious in Major League baseball.

Last year, according to Rick Wilton of the Baseball Injury Report, 404 players accounted for 477 disabled list moves. There were 109 players on the DL by opening day last year. This year, there were 103, but Wilton expects this year's total to increase further due to retroactive moves.

Some more grim numbers: 28,524 days were lost to the disabled list last year – a 6,000-day increase from 2006.

Speculation by Wilton and others who follow injuries was that stricter testing for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) such as steroids would decrease injuries.

"Steroids put more stress on the joints, tendons and ligaments by too quickly building muscle mass," says Wilton. "So less steroids should mean less strains and tears. The decrease we saw in 2006 made sense. But the spike to record levels in 2007 was a surprise. The early returns for 2008 make last year seem more like a trend."

Wilton believes that the culprit might be HGH (human growth hormone), which presently cannot be detected by tests.

Andy Andres, a muscle physiologist and natural science professor who also teaches a sabermetrics course at Boston University, disagrees. "HGH has not been proven to increase strength in young people."

So Andres doesn't see it playing a role in joint and tendon injuries. He still suspects PEDs are to blame. "There are designer steroids out there that cannot be detected by tests. And there's clearly a great incentive to cheat."

Wilton says that most of the players who get caught now by the testing are minor leaguers taking horse steroids because they're cheap. Masking agents are also expensive.

Andres wants to see another year's total of the days spent on the disabled list to see how severe these injuries are. Wilton does suspect that teams are being cautious now in disabling pitchers, especially, at the first hint of trouble.

Another factor, according to Wilton, can be the increased emphasis on weight training by players discouraged from using steroids. "More weights and less stretching equals more strains and pulls."

Andres cautions against using injury data and performance trends alone as proof of anything involving PEDs. "There's a good chance a lot of what we see is just random variance. But there's a great urge to say, 'This is proof of steroid use.' Or, 'This is proof of steroid decline.'"

With an assist from Wilton, let's now forecast the futures of some injured big-league stars.

Buy

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: He starts this week in Single A, and then the plan is to get another start in Triple A before being reevaluated about 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Says Wilton, "His command and velocity were off. They want him to build arm strength. Worst-case scenario is that it takes the full four to six weeks. But expect him to be as good as new relatively soon."

John Lackey, P, Angels: "I'm bullish that he'll be 100 percent very quickly." Lackey has a tricep strain and is ahead of schedule for returning in early May.

Milton Bradley, OF/DH, Rangers: Not all torn ACLs are the same. "If it's not a major tear, it can be almost patched, for lack of a better term. Bradley's recovery is record-breaking, but there have been major strides as the number of procedures has increased. Recovery estimates are baseline numbers, a fancy way of saying, 'Guesses.'"

Brad Lidge, P, Phillies: The Phanatics already have seen enough of Tom Gordon (five opening day runs). But Wilton expects Lidge to be fine when he comes off the disabled list Saturday.

Hold

B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: The current timetable is for him to return April 11, at least a month ahead of the earliest part of the 12- to 18-month recovery typical for Tommy John surgery. "The slider will be the big challenge for him. Relievers can come back sooner because they put less strain on the arm. But I still would not expect him to resume closer duties until the second half of this season, though he clearly is on pace for a full recovery."

Pedro Martinez, P, Mets: Forgetting about yesterday's hamstring injury and focusing on the shoulder, Wilton says, "His velocity hasn't come back and his surgery was groundbreaking, with holes drilled into bone and his shoulder basically glued back together. However, he appears remarkably smooth in his delivery even though his breaking stuff doesn't appear to be quite as sharp as pre-surgery."

Sell

Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: "Three years ago, Pujols suffered a partially torn UCL (elbow) ligament. He was told to strengthen surrounding muscles and avoid surgery for two or three years." Now, however, the check is due. "I'd say there's a 50- or 60-percent chance he breaks down due to inflammation and that surgery is performed at some point this season to give him a better chance of playing the majority of 2009."

Joel Zumaya, P, Tigers: Wilton: "He had major shoulder surgery and I doubt he returns to form this year. His future beyond that is in serious question, because we have no track record for injuries like his not caused by pitching." Zumaya reportedly was hurt lifting a box.

Rocco Baldelli, OF, Rays: "He has a very unusual condition where the cells don't regenerate and disperse waste quickly enough. It's obviously very hard to be a world-class athlete with this type of thing." Best wishes to Baldelli, as this goes beyond baseball.

Eric Chavez, 3B, A's: Four months removed from surgery is a long time to be having spasms and needing epidurals, says Wilton. "About one-third of back surgeries don't fix the problem." There's no real timetable for Chavez to return, as he's currently waiting for pain to subside.

Scott Kazmir, P, Rays: "I'm worried about him. I'm afraid we haven't gotten the full story about his elbow and that a True Confession is coming."

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status

Last Updated: 4/1
Next Update: 4/8

First Base/DH
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
NOTE: Pay up for contract push.
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
NOTE: Imagine; 20 homers on road last year.
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Justin Morneau, Twins
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Derrek Lee, Cubs
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Jim Thome, White Sox
NOTE: March steal provides instant profits.
15. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Ryan Garko, Indians
18. Billy Butler, Royals
NOTE: Soon to be a household name.
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
22. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
23. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
24. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
26. Nick Johnson, Nationals
27. Richie Sexson, Mariners
28. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
29. *Daric Barton, Athletics
30. Jason Giambi, Yankees
31. *Joey Votto, Reds
32. Mike Jacobs, Marlins

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
16. *Kelly Johnson, Braves
NOTE: Tweaked knee opening day.
17. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Brendan Harris, Twins
23. Ray Durham, Giants
24. Jayson Nix, Rockies
NOTE: May have to share spot with others.
25. Erick Aybar, Angels
26. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
27. Tad Iguchi, Padres
28. *Eugenio Velez, Giants
29. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
30. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
NOTE: Might be smartest player in league.
8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
NOTE: Range, bad speed have slipped.
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
17. Yunel Escobar, Braves
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
19. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Jack Wilson, Pirates
NOTE: Glove, not bat, keeps him in lineup.
22. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
23. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
24. Tony Pena, Royals
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Adam Everett, Twins
27. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
NOTE: An MVP waiting to happen.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Welcome to the new digs.
8. Chipper Jones, Braves
9. Chone Figgins, Angels
10. *Adrian Beltre, Mariners
NOTE: Beware the sore wrist.
11. Hank Blalock, Rangers
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
14. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: Slotted third in underrated lineup.
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
16. Ty Wigginton, Astros
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
20. *Troy Glaus, Cardinals
21. Casey Blake, Indians
22. Jose Bautista, Pirates
23. Mike Lamb, Twins
24. Joe Crede, White Sox
25. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
26. *Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Tracy probably returns in May.
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
28. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
29. *Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
30. Maicer Izturis, Angels
31. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks

Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
NOTE: Might not run much anymore.
5. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: The best reason to go to Camden.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
NOTE: Best baserunner in the majors.
9. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
10. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
11. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
12. B.J. Upton, Rays
13. Carlos Beltran, Mets
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Corey Hart, Brewers
17. Hunter Pence, Astros
NOTE: What a ballplayer should look like.
18. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
19. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
20. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Nice batting slot on opening day.
21. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
22. Adam Dunn, Reds
23. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
24. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
25. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
26. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
29. Nick Swisher, White Sox
30. Delmon Young, Twins
31. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Might be fastest player in NL.
32. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
33. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
NOTE: Perfect slot between Morneau, Mauer.
34. Josh Willingham, Marlins
35. Johnny Damon, Yankees
36. Jason Bay, Pirates
37. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
NOTE: Already owns the second city.
38. Ken Griffey, Reds
39. Adam Jones, Orioles
40. Shane Victorino, Phillies
41. Mark Teahen, Royals
42. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
43. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
44. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Has shot at 20-35 season.
45. Corey Patterson, Reds
46. Willy Taveras, Rockies
47. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
48. *Jose Guillen, Royals
49. Pat Burrell, Phillies
50. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
52. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
53. Aaron Rowand, Giants
54. Luke Scott, Orioles
55. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
56. Austin Kearns, Nationals
57. *David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Nicked up on opening day.
58. Carlos Gomez, Twins
NOTE: Value comes from his legs.
59. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Gets nod, for now, over Pierre.
60. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
61. *Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
62. Ryan Church, Mets
63. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
64. Matt Diaz, Braves
65. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
66. Felix Pie, Cubs
67. Jason Kubel, Twins
68. Gary Matthews, Angels
69. Travis Buck, Athletics
70. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
NOTE: Has shot at 25 homers.
71. Garret Anderson, Angels
72. Jack Cust, Athletics
73. Milton Bradley, Rangers
74. Scott Hairston, Padres
75. Xavier Nady, Pirates
76. *Coco Crisp, Red Sox
77. Joey Gathright, Royals
78. Randy Winn, Giants
79. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
NOTE: Hard to say how ready he is.
80. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
81. *David Dellucci, Indians
82. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
83. Eric Hinske, Rays
84. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
85. Dave Roberts, Giants
86. Ryan Freel, Reds
87. Brian Giles, Padres
88. Jacque Jones, Tigers
89. Cliff Floyd, Rays
90. Jayson Werth, Phillies
91. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
92. Jonny Gomes, Rays
NOTE: Shaky glove cuts into his time.
93. *Moises Alou, Mets
94. *Jim Edmonds, Padres
95. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
96. Jerry Owens, White Sox
97. *Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
98. Emil Brown, Athletics
99. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
100. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
101. Reggie Willits, Angels
102. Willie Harris, Nationals
NOTE: Gets temp work with Pena, Dukes out.

Catcher
1. *Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Tricky call for club after season.
11. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
12. Geovany Soto, Cubs
13. J.R. Towles, Astros
14. Dioner Navarro, Rays
15. Mike Napoli, Angels
16. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: Has he moved ahead of Paulino?
17. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
18. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
19. Josh Bard, Padres
20. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
21. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
22. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
23. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
24. John Buck, Royals
25. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
26. Gerald Laird, Rangers
27. Dave Ross, Reds
28. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
29. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
30. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
31. Johnny Estrada, Nationals
32. Brian Schneider, Mets
33. Jason Kendall, Brewers

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Updated: 4/1

Next Update: 4/8

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
NOTE: Most dominant righty there is.
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Erik Bedard, Mariners
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
6. Justin Verlander, Tigers
NOTE: Cy contender, but good luck with bullpen.
7. Cole Hamels, Phillies
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. Aaron Harang, Reds
10. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
11. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
12. John Maine, Mets
NOTE: Won't be underrated much longer.
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. *John Smoltz, Braves
15. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NOTE: Had it going in March.
16. Roy Oswalt, Astros
17. Chris Young, Padres
18. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
19. James Shields, Rays
20. Fausto Carmona, Indians
21. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
22. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
23. Ian Snell, Pirates
24. Matt Cain, Giants
25. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
26. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
27. Pedro Martinez, Mets
28. Brad Penny, Dodgers
29. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
30. *John Lackey, Angels
31. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
32. Rich Hill, Cubs
NOTE: Mechanics weren't right in Arizona.
33. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
34. Jered Weaver, Angels
35. Ted Lilly, Cubs
36. Tim Hudson, Braves
37. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Don't sweat the Triple-A stint.
38. Brett Myers, Phillies
39. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
40. Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: Sell high while you can.
41. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
42. Jeff Francis, Rockies
43. Oliver Perez, Mets
44. Gil Meche, Royals
45. Zack Greinke, Royals
46. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
47. *A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
48. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
49. Phil Hughes, Yankees
50. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
NOTE: Much better play at home.
51. Joe Blanton, Athletics
52. *Andy Pettitte, Yankees
53. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
54. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
55. Jon Garland, Angels
56. Matt Garza, Rays
57. Rich Harden, Athletics
58. Boof Bonser, Twins
59. Kevin Slowey, Twins
60. Greg Maddux, Padres
61. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
62. Scott Baker, Twins
63. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
64. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
65. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
66. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
67. Jake Westbrook, Indians
68. *Shawn Hill, Senators
69. Randy Wolf, Padres
70. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
71. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
72. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
73. Kevin Correia, Giants
74. Scott Olsen, Marlins
75. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
NOTE: Mechanics were a mess in camp.
76. Brian Bannister, Royals
77. Jon Lester, Red Sox
78. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
79. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
80. Nate Robertson, Tigers
81. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
82. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
83. Tom Glavine, Braves
NOTE: Still cagey, but no Ks.
84. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Electric spring, we're curious.
85. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
86. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
87. Chris Sampson, Astros
88. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
89. John Danks, White Sox
90. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
91. David Bush, Brewers
92. Jason Bergmann, Senators
93. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
NOTE: Big heart, ordinary stuff.
94. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
95. Odalis Perez, Senators
96. Garrett Olson, Orioles
97. Adam Loewen, Orioles
98. Brandon Backe, Astros
99. Zach Duke, Pirates
NOTE: New pitching coach may help.
100. Johnny Cueto, Reds
101. *Paul Maholm, Pirates
102. *Tim Redding, Senators
103. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
104. *Kelvim Escobar, Angels
105. *Mark Prior, Padres
NOTE: Keep in mind for second half.
106. Matt Chico, Senators
107. Shawn Chacon, Astros
108. Franklin Morales, Rockies
109. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
110. Manny Parra, Brewers
111. Andrew Miller, Marlins
112. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
113. Cliff Lee, Indians
114. Joe Saunders, Angels
115. Miguel Batista, Mariners
116. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
117. Jon Lieber, Cubs
118. Barry Zito, Giants
NOTE: Soft, softer, softest.
119. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
120. Livan Hernandez, Twins
121. Jose Contreras, White Sox
122. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
123. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
124. Ervin Santana, Angels
125. John Lannan, Senators
126. Aaron Laffey, Indians
127. Mike Mussina, Yankees

Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
3. Billy Wagner, Mets
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
5. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
6. Joe Nathan, Twins
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Don't overreact to opener.
10. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
12. Joakim Soria, Royals
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. Rafael Soriano, Braves
16. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
19. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
20. Joe Borowski, Indians
21. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
22. Brian Wilson, Giants
23. George Sherrill, Orioles
24. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
25. Eric Gagne, Brewers
NOTE: Ricky, but contract gives him leash.
27. Kerry Wood, Cubs
27. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
28. *Chad Cordero, Senators
NOTE: Grab Rauch if you still can.
29. Troy Percival, Rays
30. *B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
31. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
NOTE: Used as super-reliever as opposed to closer.
32. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
33. Jon Rauch, Senators
NOTE: Gets the ninth if Cordero isn't healthy.
34. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
35. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
36. Heath Bell, Padres
37. David Riske, Brewers
38. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
39. Tom Gordon, Phillies
40. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
41. Dan Wheeler, Rays
42. Aaron Heilman, Mets
43. Luis Ayala, Senators
44. Bob Howry, Cubs
45. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
46. Peter Moylan, Braves
47. Pat Neshek, Twins
48. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
49. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
50. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
51. Scot Shields, Angels
52. Al Reyes, Rays
53. Jamie Walker, Orioles
54. Damaso Marte, Pirates
55. Alan Embree, Athletics
56. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
57. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
58. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
59. Chad Bradford, Orioles
60. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
61. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
62. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
63. Cla Meredith, Padres
64. James Hoey, Orioles
65. Matt Guerrier, Twins
66. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
67. Brad Hennessey, Giants
68. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
NOTE: Electric stuff, blocked to the ninth.
69. Joel Peralta, Royals
70. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
71. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
72. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians