|
April 2008 Archives
9:51 AM Wed, Apr 30, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first  comment
By Mike McDermott  Email
|
By Michael Salfino
It's easy for the simple strikeout to get lost in baseball's modern sabermetric revolution.
But making contact is job one for the hitter. Those who put the ball in play generate a .300 average. Pitchers who consistently miss bats avoid the uncertainty of whether a batted ball is going to be converted by their defense into an out.
Strikeouts are much more frequent now than they were a generation ago. In 1978, the 28 teams combined for 20,058 strikeouts. Last year, 30 teams rung up 32,189 Ks. That's 1,073 per team today versus 716 per team in 1978 -- an increase of 50 percent in free air conditioning for fans in attendance.
With about an eighth of the season in the books, let's look at some pitchers who currently are extreme when it comes to strikeouts.
Buy
Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks: He was 38:3 in K:BB ratio in the minors before striking out seven in 4.1 perfect innings in relief. Expect him to replace Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation soon.
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: Just starting to rehab off his strained groin, but that provides a buying window. This lefty looks finesse, but misses bats with the best of them. He's averaging 9.7 Ks/9 innings this year; last year, he averaged an impressive 7.9. He's been lucky in stranding runners this year (87 percent; average is 70), but was unlucky in 2007 and thus is a good bet to keep his ERA under 4.00.
Scott Baker, Twins: Last year in the majors, 102 Ks, 29 walks. This year, 27 and 5, respectively. His has a tender groin (day-to-day), but that 4.50 ERA is unlikely to last given those kind of peripherals.
Randy Wolf, Padres: He probably won't make it past 100 innings again this year. And the last 20 or so before a DL stint are usually brutally bad. But 9.4 Ks/2.7 walks per 9 innings demands some faith. I'll forgive that 30.7-percent line-drive rate because he's in the best pitching park in baseball.
Nate Robertson, Tigers: Yes, the ERA currently sits over 6.00, but Robertson's K/BB ratio is 7:2. Just over 57 percent of his baserunners have scored; that's very unlucky; Robertson was over 70 percent each of the past two seasons. And guys are hitting .350 on balls in play; they were under .300 in 2005 and 2006. The only caveat is a line-drive rate that's an unsightly 24 percent.
Hold
Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: He's made a deal with the devil and cut his walk rate in half. With guys like Zambrano, the rule of thumb is to expect his walk rate to match his ERA. Right now, he's walking 2.2/9 innings and his ERA is 2.21 -- perfect. He hasn't sacrificed Ks: still 7.9/9 innings (better than last year).
Ervin Santana, Angels: The guy is 25 years old and has had success in the majors but everyone wanted to write him off for a bad year while pumping up minor leaguers just a year or two younger. That's foolish. Santana was unlucky last year given his 2:1, K:BB ratio. This year, it's about 3:1. And his K-rate is a career high 7.5/9 innings.
Cliff Lee, Indians: Very small things provide the tipping point from poor to average performance and from average to good. So there's not the chasm we imagine from Lee last year to this year. Remember, he was very good in 2005. Of course, his ERA will climb probably to somewhere in the 3.00s. But there's nothing fluky about a 29:2, K:BB ratio.
Sell
Edinson Volquez, Reds: Notice how the Rangers always look for pitchers but trade guys like Volquez and Chris Young? I love the 10.8 Ks/9 innings. But the 5.2 walks will get him murdered eventually. That 1.23 ERA will jump up three runs or more unless he significantly cuts down those walks. Still useful, but not a Cy Young candidate.
Fausto Carmona, Indians: How do you have a 2.89 ERA when you've allowed 34 hits and 26 walks in 34 innings? He's stranded well over 80 percent of base runners and allowed homers on less than 7 percent of fly balls. With average performance in these categories, his ERA would be about 6.00.
Scott Olsen, Marlins: He has 13 Ks/13 walks in 35 innings. That's terrible strikeout efficiency. The control is OK, but nothing great. He's not going to strand 85 percent of base runners forever. Back when he was a K-pitcher in 2006, he stranded 70 percent. That would give him an ERA right now of about 5.30.
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: I've always thought Lohse could pop as a fourth or fifth starter for some contender. But he'll never be more that that. Only extreme ground-ball guys (which Lohse isn't) survive Lohse's current 3.9/9 innings K-rates. He gave up 22 homers last year in about 193 innings. This year, zero in 34.3. They're coming. Also expect him to allow a .300 average on balls in play prospectively, not his current .276 -- a big difference in hits allowed when you're not missing bats.
8:31 AM Wed, Apr 30, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/29
Next Update: 5/5
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies
6. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
7. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
8. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Walk count still a concern.
9. Tim Lincecum, Giants
10. Justin Verlander, Tigers
11. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
12. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
13. Aaron Harang, Reds
14. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
15. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
16. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
17. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
18. John Maine, Mets
19. *John Smoltz, Braves
20. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
21. James Shields, Rays
22. Ian Snell, Pirates
23. Fausto Carmona, Indians
24. Roy Oswalt, Astros
NOTE: Sky wasn't falling after all.
25. Erik Bedard, Mariners
26. Brad Penny, Dodgers
27. Matt Cain, Giants
28. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
29. Chris Young, Padres
30. Jered Weaver, Angels
31. Johnny Cueto, Reds
32. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
33. Zack Greinke, Royals
34. *Derek Lowe, Dodgers
35. *John Lackey, Angels
36. *Tim Hudson, Braves
NOTE: Velocity has been down of late.
37. Oliver Perez, Mets
38. Brett Myers, Phillies
39. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: At this point, assume 2005 numbers.
40. *Ben Sheets, Brewers
41. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
42. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
43. Scott Olsen, Marlins
44. Brian Bannister, Royals
45. Rich Hill, Cubs
46. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
47. Scott Baker, Twins
48. Ervin Santana, Angels
49. Edinson Volquez, Reds
50. Joe Blanton, Athletics
51. Dana Eveland, Athletics
52. *Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
53. Phil Hughes, Yankees
54. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
NOTE: BB/SO ratio suggest a rebound.
55. Ted Lilly, Cubs
56. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
57. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
58. Jeff Francis, Rockies
59. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
60. Gil Meche, Royals
61. Boof Bonser, Twins
62. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
63. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
64. Randy Wolf, Padres
65. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
66. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
NOTE: We've seen enough to trust here.
67. Manny Parra, Brewers
68. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
69. *Jake Westbrook, Indians
70. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
71. Shawn Hill, Senators
72. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
73. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
74. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
75. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
76. Chad Gaudin, Athletics
NOTE: Big park, still under the radar.
77. Greg Maddux, Padres
78. John Danks, White Sox
79. *Rich Harden, Athletics
80. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
81. Joe Saunders, Angels
82. *Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
83. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
84. John Lannan, Senators
NOTE: Strikeout numbers get you interested.
85. Jon Garland, Angels
86. *Matt Garza, Rays
87. Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Hot prospect might open in the bullpen.
88. Nick Blackburn, Twins
89. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Consistency still eludes him.
90. Homer Bailey, Reds
91. *Mark Prior, Padres
92. Paul Maholm, Pirates
93. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
94. Greg Smith, Athletics
95. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
96. Jon Lester, Red Sox
97. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
98. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
99. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
100. *Kevin Slowey, Twins
101. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
102. Brandon Backe, Astros
103. Nelson Figueroa, Mets
104. Tim Redding, Senators
105. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
106. Adam Loewen, Orioles
107. Jon Lieber, Cubs
108. Miguel Batista, Mariners
109. Odalis Perez, Senators
110. *Kevin Correia, Giants
111. Edwin Jackson, Rays
112. Justin Germano, Padres
113. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
114. Jason Bergmann, Senators
115. Andrew Miller, Marlins
116. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
117. *Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
NOTE: A long way from the circle of trust.
118. Zach Duke, Pirates
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. J.J. Putz, Mariners
7. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
9. Joakim Soria, Royals
10. Francisco Cordero, Reds
11. Jose Valverde, Astros
12. Matt Capps, Pirates
13. George Sherrill, Orioles
14. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
15. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
16. Huston Street, Athletics
NOTE: Tidy start but trade possibility looms.
17. Brad Lidge, Phillies
18. Kerry Wood, Cubs
19. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
20. Todd Jones, Tigers
21. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
22. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
23. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Electric stuff, command still an issue.
24. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
25. Troy Percival, Rays
26. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
27. Eric Gagne, Brewers
28. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
NOTE: Welcome back to the big chair.
29. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
30. *Chad Cordero, Senators
31. Jon Rauch, Senators
32. Heath Bell, Padres
33. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
NOTE: He'll be valuable no matter the role.
34. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
35. Manny Acosta, Braves
36. *Joe Borowski, Indians
37. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
38. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
39. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
40. Joey Devine, Athletics
41. *Mike Gonzalez, Braves
42. Tyler Walker, Giants
43. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
44. Scot Shields, Angels
45. Guillermo Mota, Brewers
NOTE: The hunch play after Gagne.
46. Doug Brocail, Astros
47. Dan Wheeler, Rays
48. Blaine Boyer, Braves
49. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
50. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
51. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
52. David Riske, Brewers
53. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
54. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
55. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
56. Leo Nunez, Royals
57. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
58. John Grabow, Pirates
59. Pat Neshek, Twins
60. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
61. Tom Gordon, Phillies
62. Brian Bruney, Yankees
63. Andrew Brown, Athletics
NOTE: So many good arms here.
64. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
65. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
66. Bob Howry, Cubs
67. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
68. Aaron Heilman, Mets
69. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
70. Mark Lowe, Mariners
71. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
72. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
73. Matt Albers, Orioles
74. Luis Ayala, Senators
75. Matt Guerrier, Twins
76. Justin Speier, Angels
77. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
78. Cla Meredith, Padres
79. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
80. Alan Embree, Athletics
81. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
82. Salomon Torres, Brewers
8:25 AM Wed, Apr 30, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/29
Next Update: 5/5
First Base/DH
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers
3. Ryan Howard, Phillies
4. Mark Teixeira, Braves
5. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
9. Derrek Lee, Cubs
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
NOTE: He'll relax more on other side of diamond.
11. Carlos Pena, Rays
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
13. James Loney, Dodgers
14. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
15. Paul Konerko, White Sox
16. Jim Thome, White Sox
17. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
18. Casey Kotchman, Angels
19. Carlos Delgado, Mets
20. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
21. Billy Butler, Royals
22. Todd Helton, Rockies
23. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
NOTE: Go get him in May.
24. Joey Votto, Reds
NOTE: Starting to shove Hatteberg out of way.
25. Frank Thomas, Athletics
26. *Gary Sheffield, Tigers
27. Daric Barton, Athletics
28. Kevin Millar, Orioles
29. Richie Sexson, Mariners
30. Nick Johnson, Nationals
31. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
32. Jason Giambi, Yankees
33. Ryan Garko, Indians
34. Ross Gload, Royals
35. Ben Broussard, Rangers
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Robinson Cano, Yankees
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
NOTE: Average stinks but production still there.
7. Michael Young, Rangers
8. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
9. Kelly Johnson, Braves
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
13. Dan Uggla, Marlins
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
15. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
16. Kaz Matsui, Astros
17. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
18. Placido Polanco, Tigers
NOTE: So underrated, he's overrated.
19. Jose Lopez, Mariners
20. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
21. Luis Castillo, Mets
22. Clint Barmes, Rockies
NOTE: Nix is gone but Baker looms.
23. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
24. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
25. Ray Durham, Giants
26. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
27. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
28. Eugenio Velez,, Giants
29. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Tad Iguchi, Padres
32. *Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
33. Matt Tolbert, Twins
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. *Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
NOTE: Too early for rash move.
8. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Yunel Escobar, Braves
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
14. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
15. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
16. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
17. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
NOTE: Strictly vanilla, but it's a thin spot.
19. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
20. Maicer Izturis, Angels
21. Erick Aybar, Angels
22. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
23. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
24. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
25. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
26. *Adam Everett, Twins
27. Tony Pena, Royals
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
Third Base
1. *Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Chone Figgins, Angels
NOTE: Locked in since fingers healed last summer.
7. Chipper Jones, Braves
8. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
9. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
10. Alex Gordon, Royals
11. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
12. Evan Longoria, Rays
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
NOTE: A good buy-low target.
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
16. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
17. Joe Crede, White Sox
18. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
19. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
20. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
NOTE: Regaining confidence in Florida.
23. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
24. Melvin Mora, Orioles
25. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
26. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. Casey Blake, Indians
28. Jose Bautista, Pirates
29. Mike Lamb, Twins
30. Jose Castillo, Giants
31. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
3. Carl Crawford, Rays
4. Nick Markakis, Orioles
5. Grady Sizemore, Indians
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Nick Swisher, White Sox
8. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
9. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
13. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
14. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
NOTE: Professional hitter in every sense.
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
17. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
18. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
19. Corey Hart, Brewers
20. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
21. Hunter Pence, Astros
22. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
23. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
24. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: We believe, but explore a sell-high anyway.
25. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
26. Adam Dunn, Reds
27. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
NOTE: Would be better served in different lineup slot.
28. Michael Bourn, Astros
29. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
30. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
31. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
32. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
33. Willy Taveras, Rockies
34. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
35. Josh Willingham, Marlins
36. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Still a major upside here.
37. Pat Burrell, Phillies
38. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
NOTE: Lineup slot guarantees production.
39. Jason Bay, Pirates
40. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
41. Ken Griffey, Reds
42. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
43. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
44. Johnny Damon, Yankees
45. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
46. Bill Hall, Brewers
47. Carlos Gomez, Twins
48. Delmon Young, Twins
49. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
50. Gary Matthews, Angels
51. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
52. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Somehow, he's underrated again.
53. Fred Lewis, Giants
NOTE: Good player on a bad club.
54. Aaron Rowand, Giants
55. Luke Scott, Orioles
56. Jason Kubel, Twins
57. Adam Jones, Orioles
58. Xavier Nady, Pirates
59. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
60. Ryan Church, Mets
61. *Shane Victorino, Phillies
62. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
NOTE: Nice grab by the Pale Hose.
63. Mark Teahen, Royals
64. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
65. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
66. David DeJesus, Royals
67. *Moises Alou, Mets
68. Austin Kearns, Nationals
69. Jose Guillen, Royals
70. Joey Gathright, Royals
71. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
72. Corey Patterson, Reds
73. John Bowker, Giants
74. Jayson Werth, Phillies
75. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
76. Jonny Gomes, Rays
77. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
78. Milton Bradley, Rangers
79. Jack Cust, Athletics
80. David Murphy, Rangers
81. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
82. Brian Giles, Padres
83. Ryan Freel, Reds
84. Matt Diaz, Braves
85. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
86. Scott Hairston, Padres
87. Garret Anderson, Angels
88. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
89. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
NOTE: More time with Thomas gone.
90. Angel Pagan, Mets
91. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
92. Jacque Jones, Tigers
93. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
94. *Travis Buck, Athletics
95. Randy Winn, Giants
96. Jim Edmonds, Padres
97. Cliff Floyd, Rays
98. Reed Johnson, Cubs
99. Emil Brown, Athletics
100. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
101. Gregor Blanco, Braves
NOTE: Sleeper; consider Kotsay's injury history.
Catchers
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Bengie Molina, Giants
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
7. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Mike Napoli, Angels
10. Geovany Soto, Cubs
NOTE: Love the power but contact issues a concern.
11. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
12. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
13. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
14. J.R. Towles, Astros
15. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
16. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
17. Josh Bard, Padres
18. Dioner Navarro, Rays
NOTE: Has a shot to be in top dozen.
19. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
20. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
21. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
22. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
23. Gerald Laird, Rangers
24. Jeff Mathis, Angels
25. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
26. John Buck, Royals
27. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
28. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
29. Brian Schneider, Mets
30. *Dave Ross, Reds
31. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
32. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
33. Jason Kendall, Brewers
34. *Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
35. Jose Molina, Yankees
36. Chris Coste, Phillies
37. Paul Bako, Reds
8:22 AM Mon, Apr 28, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 28 through May 4, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Finally receiving regular playing time, Ellsbury ranks among the league leaders in runs and stolen bases. He’s started off his career perfect in steal attempts (17 for 17), longest in the majors to start a career since Tim Raines started 27 for 27. He’s also already matched his major league home run total from last season in half the at-bats, which shows potential for more power. Facing the Jays and the Rays next week, he should be a solid play.
Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees: After starting off the year in a funk, Damon seems to have turned the corner with a string of multi-hit games last week that included two home runs. Always a good source of runs at the top of a potent offense, Damon is on pace for more than 20 walks this month, something he did only once in ’07. Prior to last season, he’d strung together nine straight seasons of more than 100 runs, and should get back to that level again this year. He’s a must play in all formats.
Bench 'em
Delmon Young, OF, Twins: Although an amazing talent, Young hasn’t been able to put it all together for his fantasy owners thus far. He’s still not taking walks, hitting for power or stealing bases, necessary skills lacking thus far in his young career. He hit only 13 home runs last season, making many expert predictions of 20 homers look like a reach. If you’re in a mixed league, you should consider moving him; a more valuable piece could be had for the former top prospect.
Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees: After returning last season from a hamstring injury, Hughes left such a positive impression on Yankee ownership that he was nearly untouchable during the Johan Santana trade discussions. At this point, that is looking like a huge mistake, as Hughes is off to a terrible start and the Yankees are in need of an ace. He’ll face the Tigers next week, a lineup that is just starting to heat up after their own dismal start. This doesn’t look to be the week Hughes turns it around, so keep him on your bench until he straightens himself out.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: What a difference a week makes, as the red-hot Encarnacion looks to continue his hot-hitting ways for the Reds. He leads the team in home runs thus far, and is starting to realize the potential fantasy owners have been hoping for after his second-half surge in ’07 (.309 average, 10 home runs, 40 runs batted in after the All-Star Break). He faces the Cards and the Braves next week, two teams he hit very well against last season (4 home runs and 12 runs batted in).
Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks: One of the biggest surprises in the NL so far, Jackson is finally realizing the potential that so many people were raving about during the ’03 draft. His strong on-base skills (.368 on base percentage in ’07) and high contact rate (88 percent in ’07) make him a candidate for a strong batting average on a yearly basis. Add in his power potential and rising fly-ball rate, and he could exceed 20 home runs this season if he finally gets 500 at-bats. He’s a solid play this week against the Astros and the Mets.
Bench 'em
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: A notoriously slow starter (.236 average and 1 homer in April ’07), Zimmerman is off to another slow start this year, hovering around the .210 mark for the past few weeks. Offseason wrist surgery could be the culprit, as he could still be trying to work himself back into shape following the procedure. He mashed six home runs last May, but wait until he starts to show signs of heating up before getting him back in your lineup.
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates: Another player who probably wishes for the season to start in May, LaRoche again finds himself mired in an April slump. He could actually post a lower batting average this year than he did last April (.133). LaRoche faces a tough Mets staff this week, making a rebound less likely. Stash him on your reserves until he
emerges from his spring slumber.
10:45 AM Sat, Apr 26, 2008 | Permalink |
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
While we don't want to overreact from what we see in the first month of the season, it's essential that we at least try to figure out the nuances of the new season quicker than our rivals. Here's a peak into our current scouting notebook.
Hitters
BUY
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: You paid an expectant price on him in March, but so far, Ellsbury is justifying the love (.290, 20 runs, three homers, eight steals). His average could easily jump 20-30 points (he's got 13 walks against just six strikeouts), and he's as confident as they come on the bases (no one has thrown this guy out over 17 steal attempts). Ellsbury doesn't project to be a major power source, but perhaps the Grady Sizemore comparisons from the winter weren't that far fetched.
SELL
Daric Barton, 1B, Athletics: His current stat-line almost reads like a misprint: .262 average, .376 on-base percentage, .369 slugging, 16 walks against 23 strikeouts. The Athletics might be getting antsy about the strikeouts absent the power, as they welcomed Frank Thomas back to the fold this week. Barton deserves some time to work out of the early-season funk, but he might not get it, at least until the gridlock sorts itself out a bit.
Gary Sheffield, DH, Tigers: The shoulder clearly isn't right, cortisone shots haven't helped much, and Sheffield himself is starting to wonder how much time is left. It's a shame we can't see a healthy Sheff in the middle of this loaded Detroit lineup, but betting on a 39-year-old DH with this much mileage is a losing prop.
HOLD
Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: No need to worry here: Cano has a career .621 OPS for April, then warms up with the weather. His line drive rate is actually a speck higher in 2008, a clear sign that, more than anything, Cano is hitting in bad luck. There's still some untapped power upside here; Cano had a modest 19 homers last year tied to 41 doubles, but eventually some of those two-baggers will clear the fence.
Pitchers
BUY
Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays: He's struggled with control in a couple of starts this year, racking up 16 walks over 28 innings -- sometimes he goes to the mound with too much stuff. But he's still got three excellent pitches and everything that leaves this guy's hand comes out hard. McGowan's sparkling run at the end of 2007 didn't lie to us; he's got All-Star written all over him, and the timing might be right to sneak him away from someone off the modest April returns.
SELL
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Tigers: He's still making the radar gun pop, but he has no idea where it's going half the time (17 walks in 27.1 innings). Bonderman's always been a bit of a fantasy tease to begin with, consistently underperforming his peripherals (colleague Mike Salfino compares him with Milwaukee's David Bush). Let someone else play the Waiting for Bonderman game.
HOLD
Cliff Lee, SP, Indians: Everyone knows a fall-off is inevitable here -- no one can continue to pitch as well as Lee has for the first four weeks (one run over 31.2 innings, 2 walks, 29 strikeouts). The question is, where does he drop off to? While I want to retain some healthy skepticism given the moderate opposition he's faced so far, I like how he's locating his fastball, he's always had a decent curve, and I don't see why he can't be around the 2005 numbers again (18 wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.22 ratio). It's perfectly reasonable to explore a sell-high on Lee, but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. It's very possible he truly is one of the AL's best ten starters this season.
Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins: Two bad starts, one awful one, and now Liriano heads back to Triple-A to work on his mechanics and confidence. You see 13 walks against seven strikeouts and start to wonder about physical problems, but Liriano showed enough dominance in March that I think this current run is more of a speed bump, not a tire blowout. Find some room to stash him; he'll be a fantasy asset later in the season.
10:39 AM Thu, Apr 24, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
With just over three weeks in the books, we've got just enough meat to start putting together some intelligent guesses to what is real and what is imaginary on the diamond. The skippers around baseball get even more of an itchy finger, as we’re starting to see some interesting personnel moves.
Batters
BUY
Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks: He’s finally getting a chance to play everyday and he’s making good; murdering lefties, handling righties, and hitting both at home and on the road. Jackson's homer upside probably taps out in the 20-25 range, but surrounded by a good hitting environment (park and players), there's a taste upside here. Set the over/under at 95 runs, 90 RBIs.
Clint Barmes, 2B, Rockies: He's played over his head for a couple of weeks, no one questions that. But let's not forget that Barmes looked like a dynamic player for two months in 2005 before he messed up his shoulder. The percentage play is to shake your head and predict a heavy downturn, but if there's even a 20-percent chance that the spike is real, why not at least clear some bench space and let Barmes play it out? It’s not like the air got any thinner in Colorado over the winter. If you can U-turn out of the move simply enough, toss the dice and take a shot at some upside.
SELL
Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: We knew he came with batting-average baggage (Jones is a .249 hitter since 2004), but will the power ever come around? Early returns are troubling: 25 strikeouts in 79 at-bats, and a massive ground-ball spike; unless you're playing in a sandlot with fourth-graders, balls on the ground generally don't turn into home runs. Selling low is never much of a plan, but at the first sign of daylight for Jones, see if you can find a believer.
Ron Belliard, 2B, Nationals: He's almost doubled his walk rate and he's been moderately unlucky on balls in play, but the Nats aren't going to wait for the stats to normalize – Felipe Lopez is the new starting second baseman, while Belliard hits the pine. Lopez brings more batting-average risk to the table, but he's more exciting from a fantasy perspective because of his steals potential (68 over the last two seasons).
HOLD
Jorge Cantu, 3B, Marlins: He's still a hacker first and foremost, but there's a mild uptick with his walk rate and he's also running a little bit. Cantu needed a decent first month to solidify the job here, and so far, so good (.325, three homers, two steals). Keep in mind he's just three years removed from a 28-homer, 117-RBI season.
Adam LaRoche, Pirates: Another slow start is no surprise; his career OPS is .587 for April and .860 after. The Bucs realize this and aren't going to rock the boat; here’s your wake-up call for a tidy buy-low.
Pitchers
BUY
Brian Fuentes, RP, Rockies: Manny Corpas doesn't really deserve to lose his closing gig off three uneven weeks, but Clint Hurdle isn't afraid of the early hook – consider how quickly Fuentes was removed from the ninth-inning work last season. Generally there's a bias against left-handed closers, but Fuentes gets righties out well enough (.228 BAA for career) to handle the post, and he'll miss enough bats from both sides of the plate. The baton hasn't been passed yet in Colorado, but Corpas blew his fourth save of the year Wednesday and Hurdle admitted he's contemplating a switch.
HOLD
Bronson Arroyo, Reds: He needs to keep the ball in the park better (six homers over 25 innings won't cut it), but otherwise the prognosis isn’t as bad as the ERA and ratio want to suggest. Arroyo's still got enough stuff to succeed (23 strikeouts), and he's been unlucky on balls in play (.395). Someone's ready to make a rash sell-low here and you can take advantage.
SELL
Chad Cordero, RP, Nationals: He's avoided the surgeon's knife for now, but anytime your closer needs to see Dr. James Andrews, bad news is on the doorstep. The Nats say they'll let Cordero work his way through shoulder tendinitis and weakness, but in the meantime that means Jon Rauch will be working the ninth inning.
10:59 AM Wed, Apr 23, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Michael Salfino
It's easy for the simple strikeout to get lost in baseball's modern sabermetric revolution.
But making contact is job one for the hitter. Those who put the ball in play generate a .300 average. Pitchers who consistently miss bats avoid the uncertainty of whether a batted ball is going to be converted by their defense into an out.
Strikeouts are much more frequent now than they were a generation ago. In 1978, the 28 teams combined for 20,058 strikeouts. Last year, 30 teams rung up 32,189 Ks. That's 1,073 per team today versus 716 per team in 1978 – an increase of 50 percent in free air conditioning for fans in attendance.
With about an eighth of the season in the books, let's look at some hitters who are extreme when it comes to strikeouts. Next week, we'll do the same for select pitchers.
Buy
Jeff Keppinger, SS, Reds: There are guys like Keppinger kicking around in every organization, waiting for a chance. His lack of speed, power or a plus-glove kept him demoted for too long. This year, four Ks and six walks; last year, in 276 at-bats, it was 12 and
24, respectively. There's no way this guy hits under .300.
Corey Patterson, OF, Reds: I know he's a guy no one wanted because of his inability to get on base (he's hitting .197). But he has as many homers as Ks (four). Patterson struck out 168 times in 2004. Last year, just 65 times in 503 at-bats. It's impossible for him to
continue to hit .148 on balls in play.
Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: He struck out about once per game back in 2004. The rate has steadily gone down to the point where he's K'ed just seven times in 19 games this year. He should be walking more, but the 1:1 ratio evokes a .300 hitter. His current .176 average with runners in scoring position is a fluke suppressing his RBI total.
David Wright, 3B, Mets: He's just about perfect as a hitter. He has 17 walks and just 9 Ks. That's evidence of a quantum leap relative to 2007, when he K'ed 115 times and walked 94. Wright is making this leap from an MVP-caliber level.
Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: He's not going to hit .357. But he's walked about as much as he's K'ed, which means he's being selective enough to hit .280. Yes, he did that last year, too, and hit only .256. But that .276 average on balls in play was unlucky. In 2005, it was .336, and it's .383 this year. His power is also spiking: homers on 24 percent of fly balls.
Hold
Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians: Last year, his first as a regular, he K'ed 94 times in 484 at-bats. This year, just 9 times in 68 at-bats. He also has 13 walks, the kind of plate discipline that you look for from impact hitters. But the power has been very disappointing: homers on just 5.9 percent of fly balls (average is about 11 percent). Perhaps he's cut down his swing too much.
Matt Diaz, OF, Braves: He's yet to walk in 71 at-bats (19 Ks). Yet he still hits .300 because of a .400 average on balls in play. That latter number is not a total fluke when you consider that 23.5 percent of his batted balls are line drives, about 80 percent of which become hits. Diaz's line-drive rate is well above average.
Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks: He has just four Ks and seven walks through Tuesday's action. That's a profile of a .300 hitter for sure, even if he doesn't continue to hit .345 on balls in play (last year he hit .292 on them). He's an extreme fly-ball hitter, which should keep enough homers coming despite his middling power.
Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: I guess the elbow we worried about is fine. He's hitting .352 with 16 RBI. That's without getting a chance to shine with runners in scoring position, as he's been walked 20 times against just 7 Ks. Pujols is getting frustrated by the respect opposing pitchers are showing him, resorting this week to swinging at 3-0 pitches well out of the strike zone in a futile attempt to keep at-bats alive.
Sell
Bill Hall, 3B, Brewers: He's swinging for the fences, but 2 walks and 25 Ks is the kind of ratio we would expect from a .200 hitter, so don't expect that his current sub-Mendoza average is a fluke.
Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: Exhibit A in the case against Gomez being ready for the majors: 2 walks, 24 Ks. Yes, he has nine steals. But he'll be back in the minors by the end of May.
Hunter Pence, OF, Astros: That K/BB ratio was the black mark last year. Most ignored it. This year, it's unavoidable: 20 Ks and 3 BBs gets you a .220 average most times. And it's not like he's trading contact for power, as his rate on homers on fly balls is a paltry 4.5 percent.
10:57 AM Wed, Apr 23, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (runs, RBI, homers, steals, average).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/22
Next Update: 4/29
First Base
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers
4. Mark Teixeira, Braves
NOTE: Good time to buy low.
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
9. Derrek Lee, Cubs
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Carlos Pena, Rays
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. James Loney, Dodgers
15. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
16. Jim Thome, White Sox
17. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
18. Carlos Delgado, Mets
19. Casey Kotchman, Angels
20. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
21. Billy Butler, Royals
22. Ryan Garko, Indians
23. *Gary Sheffield, Tigers
24. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
25. Todd Helton, Rockies
26. Richie Sexson, Mariners
27. Kevin Millar, Orioles
28. Nick Johnson, Nationals
29. Joey Votto, Reds
30. Daric Barton, Athletics
31. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
32. Ross Gload, Royals
33. Jason Giambi, Yankees
34. *Frank Thomas, Free Agent
35. Ben Broussard, Rangers
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
NOTE: Frontrunner for MVP.
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Robinson Cano, Yankees
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Michael Young, Rangers
7. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
8. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
9. Kelly Johnson, Braves
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
13. Dan Uggla, Marlins
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
15. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
16. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
17. Kaz Matsui, Astros
18. Placido Polanco, Tigers
19. Jose Lopez, Mariners
20. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
21. Luis Castillo, Mets
22. Clint Barmes, Rockies
NOTE: Partying like it's 2005.
23. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
24. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
25. Ray Durham, Giants
26. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
27. Eugenio Velez,, Giants
28. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
29. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
32. Tad Iguchi, Padres
33. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
34. Juan Uribe, White Sox
35. Mike Fontenot, Cubs
36. Matt Tolbert, Twins
37. Mark Loretta, Astros
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. *Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
7. Miguel Tejada, Astros
8. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Yunel Escobar, Braves
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
14. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
19. Erick Aybar, Angels
20. Maicer Izturis, Angels
21. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
22. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
23. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
24. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
25. *Adam Everett, Twins
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. Tony Pena, Royals
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Chone Figgins, Angels
7. Chipper Jones, Braves
8. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
9. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
10. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: One of many upside Royals.
11. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Evan Longoria, Rays
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
16. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
17. Joe Crede, White Sox
18. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
19. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
20. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
21. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
22. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
23. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
24. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
25. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
26. Melvin Mora, Orioles
27. Casey Blake, Indians
28. Jose Bautista, Pirates
29. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
30. Mike Lamb, Twins
31. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
32. Jose Castillo, Giants
Outfielders
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
3. Carl Crawford, Rays
4. Nick Markakis, Orioles
5. Grady Sizemore, Indians
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
8. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
9. B.J. Upton, Rays
10. Carlos Beltran, Mets
11. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
12. Torii Hunter, Angels
13. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
14. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Four-category stud without the cost.
15. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
16. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
NOTE: Wait it out here.
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Hunter Pence, Astros
19. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
20. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
21. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
22. Adam Dunn, Reds
NOTE: Good buy-low target.
23. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
24. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
25. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
26. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Nate McLouth, Pirates
29. Michael Bourn, Astros
30. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
31. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
32. Jason Bay, Pirates
33. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: They're turning him lose on bases.
34. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
35. Willy Taveras, Rockies
36. Josh Willingham, Marlins
37. Pat Burrell, Phillies
38. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Buy before he really goes off.
39. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
40. Carlos Gomez, Twins
41. Delmon Young, Twins
42. Ken Griffey, Reds
43. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
44. Bill Hall, Brewers
45. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
46. Nick Swisher, White Sox
47. Johnny Damon, Yankees
48. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
49. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
50. Gary Matthews, Angels
51. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
52. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
53. Aaron Rowand, Giants
54. *Shane Victorino, Phillies
55. Adam Jones, Orioles
56. Jose Guillen, Royals
57. Xavier Nady, Pirates
58. Joey Gathright, Royals
59. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
60. Ryan Church, Mets
61. Austin Kearns, Nationals
62. Luke Scott, Orioles
63. Jason Kubel, Twins
64. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
65. Mark Teahen, Royals
66. Corey Patterson, Reds
67. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
68. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
69. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
70. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
71. John Bowker, Giants
72. Jayson Werth, Phillies
73. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
74. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
75. Milton Bradley, Rangers
76. Ryan Freel, Reds
77. Jack Cust, Athletics
78. Matt Diaz, Braves
79. David DeJesus, Royals
80. Fred Lewis, Giants
81. Jonny Gomes, Rays
82. *Moises Alou, Mets
83. David Murphy, Rangers
84. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
85. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
86. Brian Giles, Padres
87. Scott Hairston, Padres
88. Jacque Jones, Tigers
89. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
90. Garret Anderson, Angels
91. Travis Buck, Athletics
92. Randy Winn, Giants
93. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
94. Jim Edmonds, Padres
95. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
96. Angel Pagan, Mets
97. Cliff Floyd, Rays
98. Emil Brown, Athletics
99. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
100. Reed Johnson, Cubss
Catchers
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Jorge Posada, Yankees
5. Joe Mauer, Twins
6. Bengie Molina, Giants
7. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
8. Geovany Soto, Cubs
9. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: Can rake when he's healthy.
10. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
11. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
12. Mike Napoli, Angels
13. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
14. J.R. Towles, Astros
15. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
16. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
NOTE: Quiet surprise by the bay.
17. Josh Bard, Padres
18. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
19. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
20. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
21. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
22. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
23. Gerald Laird, Rangers
24. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
25. John Buck, Royals
26. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
27. Brian Schneider, Mets
28. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
29. Jason Kendall, Brewers
30. Chris Coste, Phillies
31. Jeff Mathis, Angels
32. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
33. *Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
34. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
35. *Dave Ross, Reds
36. Paul Bako, Reds
10:55 AM Wed, Apr 23, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/22
Next Update: 4/29
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Facing pitchers offsets the park.
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies
6. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
7. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
8. Justin Verlander, Tigers
9. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
10. Tim Lincecum, Giants
11. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
12. Aaron Harang, Reds
13. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
14. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
15. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: Legitimate Cy Young sleeper.
16. John Maine, Mets
17. John Smoltz, Braves
18. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
19. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
NOTE: The AL's next star pitcher.
20. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
21. Fausto Carmona, Indians
22. Ian Snell, Pirates
23. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
24. Brad Penny, Dodgers
25. Tim Hudson, Braves
26. James Shields, Rays
27. Roy Oswalt, Astros
28. Chris Young, Padres
29. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Ace stuff, but needs consistency.
30. Johnny Cueto, Reds
31. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
32. Francisco Liriano, Twins
33. Oliver Perez, Mets
34. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
35. Jered Weaver, Angels
36. Zack Greinke, Royals
37. Brett Myers, Phillies
38. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
39. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
40. *Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: Scratched for Wednesday turn.
41. *John Lackey, Angels
42. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
43. Rich Hill, Cubs
44. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
45. Scott Olsen, Marlins
46. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
47. Brian Bannister, Royals
48. Joe Blanton, Athletics
49. Phil Hughes, Yankees
50. Jeff Francis, Rockies
51. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
52. Ted Lilly, Cubs
53. Randy Wolf, Padres
NOTE: Enjoy one more week, then sell.
54. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
55. Ervin Santana, Angels
56. Gil Meche, Royals
57. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
58. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
59. Boof Bonser, Twins
60. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Strikeout arm without the pub.
61. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
62. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
63. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: Hasn't been tested yet.
64. Scott Baker, Twins
65. Dana Eveland, Athletics
66. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
67. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
68. *Jake Westbrook, Indians
69. Manny Parra, Brewers
70. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
NOTE: What does team do when Mulder is ready?
71. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
72. *Rich Harden, Athletics
73. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
74. Shawn Hill, Senators
75. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
76. Greg Maddux, Padres
77. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
78. *Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
79. John Danks, White Sox
NOTE: A higher ceiling than Floyd.
80. Jon Garland, Angels
81. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
82. Kevin Correia, Giants
83. Joe Saunders, Angels
84. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
85. *Matt Garza, Rays
86. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
87. Nick Blackburn, Twins
88. Homer Bailey, Reds
NOTE: Another young gun for fun staff.
89. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
90. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
91. *Kevin Slowey, Twins
92. Nelson Figueroa, Mets
NOTE: Rick Reed 2.0?
93. *Mark Prior, Padres
94. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
95. Jon Lester, Red Sox
96. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
97. Jon Lieber, Cubs
98. Edwin Jackson, Rays
99. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
100. Andrew Miller, Marlins
101. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
102. Greg Smith, Athletics
103. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
104. Tim Redding, Senators
105. Adam Loewen, Orioles
106. Justin Germano, Padres
107. Jason Bergmann, Senators
108. Paul Maholm, Pirates
109. Miguel Batista, Mariners
110. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
111. *Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
112. Zach Duke, Pirates
113. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
114. Chad Gaudin, Athletics
115. Odalis Perez, Senators
116. Brandon Backe, Astros
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
NOTE: Seattle needs him desperately.
7. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
9. Joakim Soria, Royals
10. Francisco Cordero, Reds
11. Jose Valverde, Astros
12. George Sherrill, Orioles
13. Matt Capps, Pirates
14. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
15. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
16. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
17. Huston Street, Athletics
18. Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: Can he last for six months?
19. Brad Lidge, Phillies
20. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
21. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
NOTE: Might take job and run with it.
22. Todd Jones, Tigers
23. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
24. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Hedge your bet with Walker, too.
25. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
26. Eric Gagne, Brewers
27. Troy Percival, Rays
28. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
29. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
30. *Chad Cordero, Senators
31. Heath Bell, Padres
NOTE: A chance he's closing by end of year.
32. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
33. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
34. Manny Acosta, Braves
35. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
36. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
37. Jon Rauch, Senators
38. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
39. *Joe Borowski, Indians
40. Joey Devine, Athletics
41. David Riske, Brewers
42. Scot Shields, Angels
43. Dan Wheeler, Rays
44. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
45. Doug Brocail, Astros
NOTE: Valverde won't be pulled too quickly.
46. Tyler Walker, Giants
47. Blaine Boyer, Braves
48. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
49. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
50. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
51. John Grabow, Pirates
52. Tom Gordon, Phillies
53. Pat Neshek, Twins
54. Ryan Rowland-Smith, Mariners
55. Leo Nunez, Royals
56. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
57. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
58. Brian Bruney, Yankees
59. Aaron Heilman, Mets
60. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
61. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
62. Mark Lowe, Mariners
63. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
64. Cla Meredith, Padres
65. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
66. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
67. Alan Embree, Athletics
68. Dennis Sarfate, Orioles
69. Andrew Brown. Athletics
70. Bob Howry, Cubs
71. Matt Albers, Orioles
72. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
73. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
74. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
75. Luis Ayala, Senators
76. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
77. Matt Guerrier, Twins
78. Justin Speier, Angels
79. Salomon Torres, Brewers
80. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
3:51 PM Fri, Apr 18, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
We're patient with hitters and panicky with pitchers, that’s just how fantasy owners are raised to be. With that in mind, let’s start this week’s portfolio perusal with an examination of the pitchers who are driving us, or driving us crazy.
Pitchers
BUY
Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians: His electric 2007 season (five wins, three saves, 1.47 ERA, 0.76 ratio, nine walks against 80 strikeouts) didn’t go unnoticed in the fantasy community, as the ghoul watch started early on Joe Borowski. Manager Eric Wedge wanted to keep Borowski for easy saves while Betancourt pitched out of the jams, but that's not currently an option with Borowski (triceps) on the disabled list. Betancourt has always had the talent and moxie to close, and now he gets the ball in the ninth inning. Take it and run with it, especially in stock-market leagues where the buy-in cost is marginal.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals: He’s smart, he's crafty and he’s off to a sizzling start (3-0, 0.86 ERA), making a strong case that 2007’s breakthrough was legitimate. Bannister is never going to win a strikeout title but he has spiked that category mildly this year, and he hasn’t been picking on weak offenses (Yankees, Tigers). The Royals have a lot to offer to the fantasy public, accept it and buy in.
SELL, NEXT MONTH
C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: He’s had four starts and they’ve all been terrible, that we know. Now what? On the down side, he’s never been the bastion of physical fitness, and his 2007 workload came with a 64-inning spike (including playoffs). But Sabathia was hitting the mid-90s in his last start and it was his decision to break off contract extension talks in the spring, so I’m inclined to think there’s not a major injury here. It’s too late to think about a sell – the price has collapsed too much – so at this point you might as well wait it out, though I can’t blame you if you decide to bench Sabathia until he shows at least one quality turn.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays: He’ll be wild sometimes and he’ll have rocky turns sometimes, that comes with the territory. But when Burnett manages just nine strikeouts over 17.1 innings while batters tee off at a .347 clip, red flags start falling. Keep in mind he’s passed the 170-inning mark just once over the last five seasons. You probably can’t sell Burnett for a lot right this second – similar to the Sabathia situation – but at the first sign of daylight, make a move. Here’s one stock you should be nervous about.
HOLD
Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: He’s had three messy turns (two against the Yankees), but hey, the AL East is a tough place to make your fortune. With 12 strikeouts over 14.2 innings, it’s not like his stuff has totally deserted him. Look for a step forward against Texas next week.
Hitters
BUY
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Maybe the bean counters in Tampa Bay have changed their ways; the club not only recalled Longoria a week ago, but it quickly locked him up, getting a nine-year contract (six years plus three option years) put together Friday. Longoria was a risky pick for non-keeper leagues back in March – it looked like the Rays would keep him in the minors for at least a third of the season – but if you took the plunge, enjoy your reward. Upside for 2008: .300-85-25-90.
SELL
Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: He’ll be around .300 and in a full season he’ll score 90 runs or more, but there’s plenty of downside here; Polanco doesn’t have much power or speed, and he’s been injury-prone for most of his career. He’s fine as a stat-collector in AL-only groups, but you need to shoot higher in mixed leagues. There’s plenty of buy-low potential on the Detroit offense, but here’s one name you don’t want to target.
HOLD
Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: Don’t let the .244 average throw you too much, because everything else is in line (four homers, 11 runs, 15 RBIs, six walks against just seven strikeouts). Quentin needed to mark his territory with Jerry Owens out, and so far he’s done just that.
Joey Gathright, OF, Royals: He ran like crazy in the spring, and it’s carried over to the regular season (seven bags). Gathright drops down to the fourth outfield spot when everyone is healthy in Kansas City, but David DeJesus (ankle, toe) hasn’t been right this month. He’s a specialist, sure, but the upside for Gathright is 60 steals.
12:42 PM Fri, Apr 18, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 21-27, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put' em in
J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox: Drew has been hot the past week, scoring and driving in runs as the Red Sox begin to warm up in the early going. He’ll face the Angels and the Rays next week, two teams who currently lack their imposing front-line hurlers (John Lackey and Scott Kazmir). His hot finish to last season (1.072 OPS in September) indicates a possible rebound, so take a flier on him now and enjoy the production he’ll provide in one of the best lineups in the majors.
Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians: Betancourt was dominating last season, posting a 1.47 ERA and 0.76 WHIP along with a strikeout per inning. With Joe Borowski out for the next month with a triceps strain, Betancourt now takes the ball in the ninth for the Tribe.
According to manager Eric Wedge, “If he [Borowski] comes back healthy, I suspect he'll be the closer again." Speculation clouds that statement, and if Betancourt is lights-out in the ninth, the job could be his for good.
Bench 'em
Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: The traditionally consistent Polanco has started off the year on the wrong foot thus far, and his stiff lower back certainly isn’t helping matters. He hit below .300 in a month only once last season, and looks to be feeling the pressure of high expectations in Detroit this season. Polanco’s normally high contact rate (95 percent in ’07) should help him rebound, but his troublesome back and slow start should force him to your bench for now.
C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: After getting bombed in his first four starts, two of which came against the offensive juggernaut that is decidedly not the Oakland A’s, Sabathia sports an ERA of 13.50 heading into this week. He’ll be a two-start pitcher, but faces a much-improved Royals offense and the Yankees. He’s walked as many as he’s struck out thus far (14/14 K/BB), and has given up nearly two hits an inning. His workload increased by over 50 innings last season, and it may have caught up with him.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put' em in
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: After a sluggish first few weeks of the season, Kemp has started to heat up and earn regular at-bats for the Dodgers. He faces the Reds on the road, then Diamondbacks and the Rockies at home later this week. Kemp hit 9 if his 10 home runs last season at Chavez Ravine, so this should bode well for success. He could be
this year’s version of Corey Hart, with more power potential. Snatch him up if some impatient owner dropped him after early-season woes.
Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: Burrell is off to a great start thus far in his contract year, and seems to always be an underappreciated source of power in mixed leagues. He pays a visit to Coors Field and Miller Park next week, where he hit three homers in five games last
season (and probably drank his fair share of adult beverages). Burrell closes the week against the in-state rival Pirates, who hit three homers against in ’07. I’d bank on more of the same,
especially with a hefty payday to play for this offseason.
Bench 'em
Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins: Never a threat to post a high batting average, Uggla is struggling right now to keep himself over the Mendoza line to start the year. His power is elite for a middle infielder (31 home runs in ’07), but has been lacking so far this season. With Miguel Cabrera moving on to Detroit, Uggla should see a decline in his runs scored this year, unless of course Jorge Cantu can match his career year of ’05. Don’t expect a repeat of the
production you saw out of him last season.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: Now batting in front of the pitcher, Hardy seems to be dropping further and further out of the good graces of fantasy owners, especially with a healthy crop of options at short this year. Hardy starts a home stand next week against the
Cardinals, the Phillies and the Marlins, but it won’t matter if pitchers work around him to get to the pitcher, who bats eighth for the Brewers. While you may see a spike in his walks, that won’t make up for his lack of production in other categories. Move him to the bench until
he is moved elsewhere in the batting order.
3:50 PM Thu, Apr 17, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
Tax day may have come and gone, but the audits never stop if you're tied to a fantasy roster or two. Here's a peak inside our notebook for some buy-and-sell ideas.
Pitchers
BUY
Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals: He came into his own during the second half of 2007, and it's carried over into a nice 2008 push-off (two wins, 2.78 ERA, three walks, 16 strikeouts). With three decent pitches, a roomy park and a cushy division to attack, Wainwright could be a sleeper candidate in the Cy Young race.
Jair Jurrgens, SP, Braves: He's more of a crafty righty than anything, but he’s got enough guile to have 13 strikeouts in 18.1 innings, and he hasn’t given up a homer yet. The 3.93 ERA is likely to come down, as Jurrgens has been unlucky on balls in play (.341).
SELL
Dave Bush, SP, Brewers: He's off to a flying start in the underachiever category, once again putting up mediocre numbers that fall far short of where the peripherals peg him to be. Stop chasing on this one – let someone else ponder the Dave Bush riddle while their ERA gets blown up. When Milwaukee's entire rotation gets healthy, Bush could easily wind up in the bullpen.
HOLD
Randy Wolf, SP, Padres: His three starts came in pitcher havens (two in San Diego, one in San Francisco), and that covers up a lot of mistakes. But when you've got 18 punchouts in 19 innings, you’re doing something right. The biggest issue with Wolf is staying healthy; elbow and shoulder problems have kept him occupied for four straight seasons. Ride the wave for another month or so, then start letting your opponents know you're ready to "move a pitcher."
Scott Olsen, SP, Marlins: He’s had two solid starts but the 3.05 ERA is artificially low by a run, and six walks against 10 strikeouts doesn’t make anyone weak in the knees. Olsen’s started to rebuild his confidence and might wind up being one of the surprise packages of the summer, but let’s not consider him back to 2006 form prematurely. More evidence is needed.
Hitters
BUY
Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: The most encouraging part of his hot start is the production on the road (.952 slugging) and against right-handed pitching (six homers); when Burrell tackles both of those challenges, you know he’s locked in. We'll live with the strikeouts so long as the walk count stays in line; he's clearly seeing the ball well. Fantasy owners would like to see Burrell close a little more often – Charlie Manuel can’t wait to get Burrell's glove out of the game – but one thing at a time.
Mike Fontenot, 2B, Cubs: He’ll be passable in average, steal a base now and again, help the counting stats – at least while Alfonso Soriano is out. This is the type of player you ignore in a mixed league, but NL-only players will find Fontenot useful for the next month.
SELL
Corey Patterson, OF, Reds: Normally you don’t want to worry about 1-for-19 stretches, because they come and go. But does Dusty Baker have a long-term plan in Cincinnati, or any real commitment to Patterson? Given the collection of utility types the Reds have who can play center field, not to mention stud prospect Jay Bruce waiting in Triple-A, I’m not confident we’ll see 500 at-bats from Patterson over the balance of the year. And even if Patterson is on the field, there’s no guarantee he’ll help you much in two of the five categories (he brings plenty of batting-average risk, and won’t bat in an RBI position).
HOLD
Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: He’s become a more professional hitter this year, making consistent contact, working deeper into counts, getting quality pitches to hit; witness the grooved fastball from Takashi Saito that McLouth clouted for a game-winning homer Monday. The snappy start might be unsustainable (.382 average, 13 runs, 14 RBIs), but it's certainly real; we saw the power and speed last year, and the contact-rate spike is a very good sign. The only question about McLouth this spring was related to job security, but that’s not an issue now.
9:41 AM Wed, Apr 16, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Michael Salfino
A generation ago, cookie-cutter ballparks prevailed, largely neutralizing the impact on stats such as runs and homers.
Today's trend to come up with unique, compelling stadium architectures has resulted in parks that can significantly impact hitting and pitching statistics.
Let's look at parks that increase or decrease scoring by 10 percent or more, not just last year, but according to the Bill James Handbook, for the 2005-2007 period. Remember, since teams only play half their games at home, any park effects have just half the impact on individual batter/pitcher statistics.
Here's how these effects are calculated. Last year, the Royals and all their opponents scored 754 runs at games at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium and 730 runs while playing each other at other parks. So Kauffman Stadium increased scoring 3 percent last year (the difference between how those same teams scored while playing at Kauffman versus playing each other at all other parks).
We'll also look at the parks that have a significant positive impact on homers overall (again, at least 10 percent last year and for the entire 2005-07 period) and whether that impact applies to all hitters, or mostly to either righties or lefties.
By our run-scoring standards, there's only one true pitcher's park in baseball: the Padres' PETCO Park. Last year, runs were off 25 percent there, and they're down about 20 percent when you include the prior two years. So, expect Pitcher X to get a 10-percent cut in his ERA (4.00 ERA becomes 3.60).
The only parks to significantly and consistently boost scoring are the Diamondbacks' Chase Field and the Rockies' Coors Field. Those parks also increase homers greatly for righty and lefty hitters.
Consider, though, that you ultimately reach a point with park factors when parks that, say, boost scoring, don't register that way because too many other parks do, too. The rising scoring tide lifts all boats.
There are plenty more homer-friendly parks. Besides Coors and Chase, Wrigley Field, U.S. Cellular (White Sox), Great American Ballpark (Reds), Citizens Bank (Phillies) and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) greatly benefit all hitters. And Camden Yards (Orioles) offers righties a major boost while Yankee Stadium, as has been the case for generations, benefits lefties.
There are a surprising number of homer-suppressing parks: the Metrodome (especially for lefties), Angel Stadium (lefties), McAfee Stadium (A's, righties), PNC Park (Pirates, minus-30 percent homer for righty hitters), AT&T Park (Giants) and Busch Stadium (Cardinals).
Now let's (mostly) use park effects to make some player recommendations.
Buy
Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: He just swung a bat for two days in a row and should return from his broken finger inside two weeks. Rolen's shoulder is repaired and he's getting a 40-percent homer boost in moving from Busch to Rogers. Upside: .300, 25 homers from May through September.
Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: This well-rounded talent had 30-homer potential in a neutral park, and U.S. Cellular improves those odds. Rehabbing Jerry Owens is not in the team's plans with Nick Swisher installed as center fielder and leadoff hitter "for the foreseeable future."
Greg Maddux, P, Padres: Combine his unwillingness to hurt himself with walks with a great home park and you have a guy you can run with without fear for at least 125 innings or so before the toll starts to wear (Maddux is 42).
Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: Like Quentin, more of a long-term investment. But there's upside for 2008. Jones improved dramatically three minor league years in a row. He has great raw power and gets half his games in a park that favors righties.
Jon Garland, P, Angels: He was smashed in his one home start (two homers), but should be helped going forward. He has a 5.01 career April ERA, 4.16 and 4.09 in May and June, respectively. Should get a 5-percent decrease in ERA by moving from Chicago to Los Angeles (Anaheim).
Hold
B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: He's back early from Tommy John, and reports are he's barely hitting 90 mph with the fastball. Big deal. Average fastball velocities in 2005: 90.9, 2006: 90.6.
Danny Haren, P, Diamondbacks: Park factors are less important when a guy like Haren moves from the AL to the NL and gets to face pitchers instead of designated hitters.
Sell
Zack Greinke, P, Royals: John Danks is more on-topic; don't believe his sudden ground-ball rate. Greinke's park boosts scoring a mild 5 percent. But he's benefited greatly by great luck on balls in play: only 22 percent hits, average is 30 percent. And he's stranded 97 percent of runners (average is 71 percent). The dominance isn't there (about 3 Ks per 9 IP).
Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Sell steady-stroker Kotchman high since his park will hurt his power pretty dramatically (over 20-percent power decline for lefties). Three of his four homers this year are on the road.
9:40 AM Wed, Apr 16, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/15
Next Update: 4/22
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Stop nibbling, trust your stuff more.
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Aaron Harang, Reds
9. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Tim Lincecum, Giants
11. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
12. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
13. John Smoltz, Braves
14. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
NOTE: Hopes to avoid the DL (hip).
15. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
16. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
17. John Maine, Mets
18. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
19. Chris Young, Padres
20. Ian Snell, Pirates
21. James Shields, Rays
22. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
NOTE: Most underrated ace in AL.
23. Fausto Carmona, Indians
24. Brad Penny, Dodgers
25. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
26. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
27. Tim Hudson, Braves
28. Roy Oswalt, Astros
29. Matt Cain, Giants
30. Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Ordinary debut but upside remains.
31. *John Lackey, Angels
32. Jered Weaver, Angels
33. Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: Quietly explore a sell-high.
34. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
35. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
36. Oliver Perez, Mets
37. Johnny Cueto, Reds
NOTE: Forget fly-ball tendencies, he's an ace.
38. Zack Greinke, Royals
NOTE: Here comes the breakthrough.
39. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
40. Brett Myers, Phillies
41. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
42. Gil Meche, Royals
43. Rich Hill, Cubs
44. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
45. Jeff Francis, Rockies
46. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
47. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
48. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
49. Joe Blanton, Athletics
50. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
51. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
52. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
53. Phil Hughes, Yankees
54. Boof Bonser, Twins
55. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
56. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
57. Greg Maddux, Padres
58. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
NOTE: Money at home; let's see it on the road.
59. Edinson Volquez, Reds
60. Brian Bannister, Royals
NOTE: Smarts compensate for ordinary stuff.
61. Jake Westbrook, Indians
62. Ted Lilly, Cubs
63. Jon Garland, Angels
64. Randy Wolf, Padres
65. Scott Baker, Twins
66. Ervin Santana, Angels
67. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
68. Manny Parra, Brewers
69. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
70. Kevin Correia, Giants
71. Dana Eveland, Athletics
72. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
73. Scott Olsen, Marlins
74. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
75. Joe Saunders, Angels
76. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
NOTE: Wild, but heavy strikeout potential.
77. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
78. Paul Maholm, Pirates
79. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
80. *Shawn Hill, Senators
81. Nick Blackburn, Twins
82. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
83. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
84. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
85. Jon Lester, Red Sox
86. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: He can beat Oakland, we know that.
87. *Rich Harden, Athletics
88. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
89. Brandon Backe, Astros
90. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
91. *Matt Garza, Rays
92. *Kevin Slowey, Twins
93. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
94. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
95. Zach Duke, Pirates
NOTE: No strikeouts Monday, a red flag.
96. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
97. Odalis Perez, Senators
98. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
99. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
100. Greg Smith, Athletics
101. John Danks, White Sox
102. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
103. Adam Loewen, Orioles
104. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
NOTE: No-hit bid aided by nasty weather.
105. David Bush, Brewers
106. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
107. Brad Thompson, Cardinals
108. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
109. *Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
110. Edwin Jackson, Rays
111. Justin Germano, Padres
112. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
113. Jason Bergmann, Senators
114. Franklin Morales, Rockies
115. Miguel Batista, Mariners
116. Jon Lieber, Cubs
117. Chris Sampson, Astros
118. Tim Redding, Senators
119. Shawn Chacon, Astros
120. Braden Looper, Cardinals
121. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Remains in tease file for now.
122. Carlos Silva, Mariners
123. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
124. *Kelvim Escobar, Angels
125. Matt Chico, Senators
126. Tom Glavine, Braves
127. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
128. *Mark Prior, Padres
129. Nate Robertson, Tigers
130. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
131. Barry Zito, Giants
132. Livan Hernandez, Twins
133. Andrew Miller, Marlins
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Billy Wagner, Mets
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
NOTE: Encouraging notes on his rehab.
7. Jose Valverde, Astros
8. *Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
9. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
10. Matt Capps, Pirates
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
12. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: This club might win 80 or more.
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. George Sherrill, Orioles
16. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
17. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
18. Todd Jones, Tigers
19. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
20. Brad Lidge, Phillies
21. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Stuff is there, command comes and goes.
22. Kerry Wood, Cubs
23. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
24. Eric Gagne, Brewers
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. *Chad Cordero, Senators
27. Troy Percival, Rays
28. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
29. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
30. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
NOTE: Probably gets a shot with Borowski out.
31. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
32. Heath Bell, Padres
33. Peter Moylan, Braves
NOTE: Sidewinder throws harder than you think.
34. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
35. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
36. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
37. *Joe Borowski, Indians
NOTE: Heads to DL; will job be waiting later?
38. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
39. David Riske, Brewers
40. Mark Lowe, Mariners
41. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
42. Jon Rauch, Senators
43. Dan Wheeler, Rays
44. Tom Gordon, Phillies
45. Manny Acosta, Braves
46. Pat Neshek, Twins
47. Scot Shields, Angels
48. Dennis Sarfate, Orioles
49. Aaron Heilman, Mets
50. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
51. Leo Nunez, Royals
52. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
53. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
54. Bob Howry, Cubs
55. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
56. Matt Albers, Orioles
NOTE: Got it done in spot start.
57. Tyler Walker, Giants
58. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
59. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
60. Justin Speier, Angels
61. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
62. Luis Ayala, Senators
63. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
64. Sean Green, Mariners
65. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
66. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
67. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
68. Cla Meredith, Padres
69. Al Reyes, Rays
70. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
71. Eric O'Flaherty, Mariners
72. Matt Guerrier, Twins
73. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
74. Joel Peralta, Royals
75. Alan Embree, Athletics
9:37 AM Wed, Apr 16, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/15
Next Update: 4/22
First Base/DH
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Hope you enjoyed March discount.
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers
NOTE: A drive-thru run might help.
4. Mark Teixeira, Braves
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Carlos Pena, Rays
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. Derrek Lee, Cubs
11. Travis Hafner, Indians
12. Paul Konerko, White Sox
13. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
14. *Gary Sheffield, Tigers
15. Jim Thome, White Sox
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Billy Butler, Royals
18. James Loney, Dodgers
NOTE: 2007 wasn't a fluke.
19. Ryan Garko, Indians
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
22. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
23. Casey Kotchman, Angels
NOTE: Early homers an encouraging sign.
24. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
25. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
26. Nick Johnson, Nationals
27. Richie Sexson, Mariners
28. Daric Barton, Athletics
29. Jason Giambi, Yankees
30. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
31. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
32. Kevin Millar, Orioles
33. Joey Votto, Reds
34. Ben Broussard, Rangers
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Robinson Cano, Yankees
5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
NOTE: In a healthy year, 130 runs possible.
6. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Placido Polanco, Tigers
9. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
NOTE: Underrated, could swat 18-20 homers.
13. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
14. Kelly Johnson, Braves
15. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
16. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
17. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Brendan Harris, Twins
23. Erick Aybar, Angels
24. Ray Durham, Giants
25. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
26. Tad Iguchi, Padres
27. Jayson Nix, Rockies
NOTE: Tenuous hold on job.
28. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
29. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
30. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
31. Eugenio Velez, Giants
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
NOTE: How long can they keep him?
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. *Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. Yunel Escobar, Braves
NOTE: Might be top-10 by turn of summer.
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
18. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
19. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
NOTE: Good sell-high candidate.
22. Tony Pena, Royals
23. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
24. Adam Everett, Twins
25. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
28. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
29. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
31. Mark Loretta, Astros
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Still elite when health cooperates.
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
7. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Hank Blalock, Rangers
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: A star by end of decade.
14. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: Worth using immediately.
15. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
18. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
19. Melvin Mora, Orioles
20. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
21. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Sell high if you can.
22. Joe Crede, White Sox
23. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
24. Jose Bautista, Pirates
25. Casey Blake, Indians
26. Mike Lamb, Twins
27. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
28. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
29. *Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
30. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
31. Juan Uribe, White Sox
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
6. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
9. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
12. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
13. Carlos Beltran, Mets
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
NOTE: Looks more focused in 2008.
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
19. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Power spike very likely.
20. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
21. Adam Dunn, Reds
22. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
23. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
24. Hunter Pence, Astros
25. Nick Swisher, White Sox
26. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
27. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
NOTE: Mets will regret this one.
28. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
29. Michael Bourn, Astros
30. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Still room on the bandwagon.
31. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
32. Johnny Damon, Yankees
33. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
34. Jason Bay, Pirates
35. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
36. Ken Griffey, Reds
37. Josh Willingham, Marlins
38. Corey Patterson, Reds
39. Delmon Young, Twins
40. Adam Jones, Orioles
41. Mark Teahen, Royals
42. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
43. Pat Burrell, Phillies
44. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
NOTE: So far, so good.
45. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
46. Willy Taveras, Rockies
47. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Might win a batting title some day.
48. Jose Guillen, Royals
49. Carlos Gomez, Twins
50. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Dual-eligibility always helps.
52. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Do the right thing, Joe Torre.
53. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
54. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
55. Luke Scott, Orioles
56. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
57. David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Nicked up, but returned Monday.
58. Aaron Rowand, Giants
59. Austin Kearns, Nationals
60. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
61. Jason Kubel, Twins
NOTE: Can rake, if his knees let him.
62. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
63. Xavier Nady, Pirates
64. Ryan Church, Mets
65. Matt Diaz, Braves
66. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
67. Scott Hairston, Padres
68. Angel Pagan, Mets
69. Gary Matthews, Angels
70. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
71. Jack Cust, Athletics
72. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
NOTE: Jump 30 spots if he's traded.
73. *Shane Victorino, Phillies
74. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
75. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
76. Garret Anderson, Angels
77. Randy Winn, Giants
78. Felix Pie, Cubs
79. Travis Buck, Athletics
80. Milton Bradley, Rangers
81. Jayson Werth, Phillies
82. Cliff Floyd, Rays
83. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
84. Joey Gathright, Royals
NOTE: Fourth outfielder with DeJesus back.
85. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
86. *Moises Alou, Mets
87. Fred Lewis, Giants
88. Jonny Gomes, Rays
89. David Murphy, Rangers
90. Ryan Freel, Reds
91. Jacque Jones, Tigers
92. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
93. Eric Hinske, Rays
94. Jim Edmonds, Padres
95. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
96. *David Dellucci, Indians
97. *Jerry Owens, White Sox
98. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
99. Brian Giles, Padres
100. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
101. Emil Brown, Athletics
102. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
103. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
104. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
Catcher
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Bengie Molina, Giants
7. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
11. Geovany Soto, Cubs
NOTE: Looks like the genuine article.
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Mike Napoli, Angels
14. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
15. J.R. Towles, Astros
16. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
17. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
18. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
NOTE: Encouraging notes on rehab.
19. Josh Bard, Padres
20. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
21. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
22. Gerald Laird, Rangers
23. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
24. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
25. John Buck, Royals
26. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
27. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
28. Dave Ross, Reds
29. Brian Schneider, Mets
30. Jason Kendall, Brewers
1:37 PM Sun, Apr 13, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 14th through April 20, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox: Crede has been on fire the past week, collecting multi-hit games and driving in runs at a torrid pace. He’ll face the Orioles and the A’s at home next week, and will finish up the week on the road against the Rays -- all favorable matchups. In his breakout '06 campaign, Crede slugged 20 homers at US Cellular Field, and he won’t be facing either Rich Harden or Scott Kazmir this week.
Frank Thomas, DH, Blue Jays: There are good days ahead for the veteran slugger, who faces the Orioles at Camden Yards before returning to Rogers Centre to face the questionable Rangers and Tigers staffs. Thomas seems to have found his power stroke, blasting homers in three straight games in the early going to boost his confidence. Thomas is a good source of power in mixed leagues, and should provide an adequate batting average in these matchups.
Bench 'em
Jose Guillen, OF, Royals: Guillen has started off the season ice cold, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he has hit below .240 in April each of the past two seasons. Perhaps he was distracted by the lingering threat of suspension for steroid use, which is now
rescinded as part of the new agreement between the owners and the players union on a drug policy. He’s a consistent source of 20 homers when healthy, so keep him around until he breaks out of his slump.
Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B, Rays: Started off his career in the majors last season scorching hot, but this season he's icy cold. Through the first few weeks, the Rays leadoff man has failed to reach base with any consistency, making his .359 on-base percentage from ’07 look like a fluke. Second-base eligibility gives his limited skill set a bit more value, but not at his current level of performance.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put' em in
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: An all-or-nothing hitter, Reynolds
has been blasting tape-measure shots in the early going, providing waiver wire hawks a great source of power and run production. His power is for real, as he proved last season hitting 17 home runs in only 366 at-bats. He’s locked in right now, and should be locked into your fantasy lineup while hot.
Randy Johnson, SP, Diamondbacks: After another back surgery, Johnson resumes his quest for 300 wins on Monday against the Giants. He’ll make two starts this week, also facing the light-hitting Padres. He struck out seven batters in his final rehab start in the minors, a sign that his stuff is still good enough to help out your fantasy squad every fifth day.
Bench 'em
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: An early-season sleeper by many fantasy experts, Encarnacion has disappointed thus far, providing little value to the brave owners who have stuck by him. He’ll face the Cubs and the Brewers this week, arguably the two best rotations in the division. He struggled early on last season, but went out with a bang over the final two months, belting nine homers and driving in 35 runs while hitting well over .300. Friday night, he stranded seven baserunners. Reserve him for now.
Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Hitting in a weak Giants lineup, Rowand certainly isn’t about to repeat his ’07 performance. He may still provide you with a decent batting average, but that’s about all. He’s consistently had nobody to drive in over the first few weeks of the season. He’ll face a tough Arizona rotation to start the week before closing with the surprising Cardinals on the road. Don’t waste your time here.
7:05 AM Sat, Apr 12, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
Forget what you thought was true in March – the goal now is to figure out the new season, and the change in player values, quicker than your opponents. Here’s a look into our current scouting notebook.
Pitchers
BUY
Dana Eveland, SP, Athletics: His tidy spring (five walks, 17 strikeouts) has carried over to the regular season, where Eveland has been very sharp over two starts (one run, four walks, 13 strikeouts). Keep in mind a few things on the hard-throwing lefty: he’s still just 24; he’ll get half of his starts in a roomy park; and he was once considered a hot prospect in the Milwaukee system. There’s a pedigree here, and an upside worth speculating on.
SELL
Edwin Jackson, SP, Rays: We’ve seen two impressive outings to be sure, but until he learns to harness his control (six walks over 14 innings), it’s going to be a roller-coaster ride. The heavy lineups in the American League East will be heard from eventually.
Rich Harden, SP, Athletics: A strained back muscle has him on the disabled list, to the surprise of absolutely no one. Harden’s become the type of guy you look to sell high after any small sample of success; he simply can’t be trusted to go deep into any season. You have to wonder why Billy Beane hasn’t been able to flip this right-hander like he has so many name-brand arms of the past (Hudson, Mulder, Haren).
HOLD
Dan Wheeler, RP, Rays: He’s been perfect over 5.1 April innings (along with four strikeouts), and there isn’t a lot of competition in the Tampa Bay bullpen. Troy Percival? Good luck staying healthy for a full season. Al Reyes? Don’t tase me, bro. Wheeler is one of the best speculative save plays in the American League.
Joe Saunders, SP, Angels: The critics argue that his stuff is ordinary, insisting that Saunders will have problems on days where his command isn’t sharp. The believers point to a strikeout spike, some moderate success last year, and pedigree (Saunders was a first-round pick back in 2002.) Backed by a solid defensive club and a park you can succeed in, let’s give Saunders the benefit of the doubt for now. He’s pitching over his head through two 2008 turns, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have fantasy relevance for the balance of the year, even in mixed leagues.
Hitters
BUY
David Murphy, OF, Rangers: He looked like a fourth outfielder to begin the year, but Ron Washington likes the kid and seems ready to find 450-500 at-bats for him. That doesn’t make him fantasy-relevant in all formats – mixed leaguers will want a more regular option in the outfield – but Murphy can probably duplicate what Marlon Byrd did last year, with a few extra steals thrown in. Upside: .300-75-15-70-15.
Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles: Some believe in April trends and some don’t, but there’s no denying the resume on Huff, which shows he’s never hit in the first month of the year (.239/.312..411). He’s off to a nifty start for the surprising Orioles (10 for 33, two homers, one steal), and at 32 Huff is young enough to dream about a career year. The supporting cast in Baltimore is better than you think; Nick Markakis has superstar written all over him, Adam Jones is in the same class, and Luke Scott is ready to take a full-time job and club 25-30 home runs.
SELL
Casey Blake, 3B/OF, Indians: He was buried in the Cleveland lineup for most of last fall, and that’s been the case again this year as he struggles to find his swing (5 for 27, seven strikeouts, .259 slugging). Blake turns 35 this summer and probably shouldn’t be in the everyday lineup for a contending club much longer; the deep and proactive Indians probably won’t settle for this sort of mediocrity all year.
HOLD
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Here’s a good example of how offseason hype can ruin a player’s fantasy value, especially when he runs for a high-profile club like the Red Sox. Ellsbury has been anxious at the plate, he’s losing some at-bats to Coco Crisp, and he’s spending most of his time in the bottom third of the order. Too talented not to turn it around? You bet. Worthy of the lofty expectations we saw in March? Not yet.
1:57 PM Thu, Apr 10, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, we get it. But adjusting to the ebb-and-flow of a new season is essential to fantasy success; you need to re-calibrate player values quicker than your opponents. Here's a peak at some current movers in the market.
Pitchers
BUY
Zach Duke, SP, Pirates: A reasonable spring and a decent first start got Duke on the radar, and we really like how he threw the ball against Chicago on Wednesday (seven innings, one run, one walk, seven strikeouts). Perhaps new pitching coach Jeff Andrews can help make Duke relevant again to fantasy owners.
Peter Moylan/Manny Acosta, RP, Braves: Rafael Soriano went on the disabled list Wednesday with elbow tendinitis, so Bobby Cox needs a new ninth-inning guy in Atlanta. Acosta's hard stuff fits the profile of a closer, but Moylan's control might make him better suited for the job in the long run. The first save chance, and conversion, will go a long way in determining who gets the front seat in the committee.
Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds: Everyone in Cincinnati is gaga for Johnny Cueto and rightfully so, but don't sleep on Volquez, who followed up an electric spring with a solid turn against Philadelphia (5.1 innings, one run, two walks, eight strikeouts). If you didn't get Cueto off waivers, no worries; perhaps you can still get a consolation prize in Volquez, who has just as much promise for 2008. The Reds certainly didn't trade Josh Hamilton for nothing.
SELL
Dave Bush, SP, Brewers: Normally he puts up a mediocre ERA that belies his solid peripherals. So far this year it's "crummy ERA, crummy peripherals." The Brewers aren't going to wait forever – don't be surprised if Bush is working out of the bullpen in May.
HOLD
Todd Wellemeyer, SP, Cardinals: He doesn't have a track record as a starter, but 13 whiffs over 12 innings get us interested, and he draws the punchless Giants over the weekend. Scout Wellemeyer one more time before you decide on how to play this one.
Bronson Arroyo, SP, Reds: He's been bitten by the gopher (five homers) over two rocky starts, but three walks against 11 strikeouts suggest better times are ahead. Split the difference between Arroyo 2006 (great) and 2007 (not so much), and you come up with a serviceable fantasy arm.
Batters
BUY
Jeff Keppinger, SS, Reds: He quietly hit .332 in 241 at-bats last year without a lot of fanfare, and he's off to a big start so far in 2008 (.382, two homers, .647 slugging). That's probably enough to keep him in the lineup even after Alex Gonzalez comes off the disabled list.
Bill Hall, 3B/OF, Brewers: If you can handle an average that might not pass .270, there's a lot of other stuff to like here: 30-homer potential, two-position eligibility, and aggressive running on the bases, even as it's not a percentage play for Hall. The finger issue from the early part of camp didn't turn out to be anything.
SELL
Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: He's never been a dynamic power hitter or base stealer, more of a chip-in guy, but good luck posting healthy numbers through a nagging rib injury. A crummy supporting cast and a big home park don't help the cause either; Rowand signing with the Giants was like David Caruso leaving NYPD Blue.
Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: We wondered if a mediocre 2007 season would spark a comeback season, but so far that hasn't been the case (perhaps it's hard to motivate a guy who gets a two-year, $36-million package off his worst season). Jones came to camp overweight (Joe Torre concedes this), didn't hit much in spring, and it's been even worse since the real games started (4 for 31, 10 strikeouts). The Dodgers know all about overpaid outfielders, of course, with Juan Pierre on the roster. Wait until Jones hits his first homer, then let your opponents know that you're "ready to move an outfielder."
Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: He's allergic to taking a walk and he's no longer a factor on the bases, so forget about his 14-for-43 start with a couple of homers – it's smoke all the way. Find someone who's desperate for a middle and lock in your mild profit while you can.
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: There's never been any question about his power, but he's still striking out too much and keep in mind Chad Tracy is expected back in May. Perhaps the best time to sell Reynolds is right now.
HOLD
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: He's off to a 2-for-24 start and Dusty Baker is famous for his distrust of young players. So why hold onto Easy E? Because April is typically his worst month (.724 OPS), and we still like his eye, power potential, and home park.
3:00 PM Wed, Apr 09, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Michael Salfino
The small sample sizes in the early baseball season create lots of fascinating story lines. Let's get through as many as we can with the usual caveats. All stats are through Tuesday's action.
The pitchers are ahead of the hitters. The Major League average is .252 with 4.3 runs per game versus .268 and 4.8 runs last year.
The Tigers are the poster boys for April futility: hitting .234 and scoring 2.1 runs per game (on pace for about 325). Detroit is an AL worst .149 with runners in scoring position (the Rockies are worst overall with RISP, .111).
Detroit was tabbed to win 92 games by Vegas (actually 92.5). Let's call that a .570 winning percentage. They've lost their first seven games. Odds of a true .570 team losing seven in row: about 1 in 370.
The Orioles were expected to win about 40 percent of their games (65.5 was their over/under Vegas total). Odds of them winning six in a row were about one in 250.
Odds are that the Tigers are worse than we thought; the Orioles better.
Baltimore has been the best defensive team in baseball, converting .788 of balls in play into outs (average is .700). The Reds are the best defensive team thus far in the NL: .776.
Worst defensive teams by league: Giants (.614) and Rangers (.649).
Seattle is hitting .227 on balls in play. On the other end of the big- league spectrum, the Brewers sit at .345.
Jason Kendall leads the team with a .526 average, but bats ninth (behind the pitcher). The Cardinals are also batting the pitcher eighth. Why?
After all, the No. 8 hitter comes to bat more than No. 9 – about 18 times more in a normal season. Some of those times are going to be big, but, of course, that's when they will be removed for a pinch hitter.
Moving a more certain out (your pitcher) farther away from the better hitters at the top of your lineup provides a very slight boost to scoring: estimated to be somewhere between one-half run to three runs over the 162-game season. The discrepancy relates mostly to assumptions regarding the strength of your Nos. 2-4 hitters.
Now let's look at some individual performers to find the best buying and selling opportunities.
Buy
Rick Ankiel, OF, Cardinals: I'm pro "freak" with these next two guys. Ankiel has very little professional experience as a hitter and continues to excel in the majors. To me, that means the sky is the limit. Upside: .290 with 40 homers.
Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers: Like Ankiel, Hamilton pretty much skipped the minors due to personal problems that limited him to 90 minor league at-bats between 2002 and his big-league call up last year. His upside might be higher than Ankiel's, but consider his longstanding substance abuse problems.
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: Looking for a bright side: the .063 on balls in play is textbook bad luck. And his rate of 4.7 pitches per plate appearances is fourth-best in the Bigs – a sign of better things to come.
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers: He's hitting .071 on balls in play. Just flip over his baseball card and you can see that he's one of the two or three best hitters in the game, with his best days likely still ahead.
Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: The Marlins' defense is again atrocious (.632 on balls in play). So his ERA will remain inflated, but not to this extent. He striking out about a batter per inning and walking less than three per nine.
Hold
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: Of course, his .556 on balls in play is unsustainable. But Japan's best player has a perfectly fundamentally sound game in all facets that certainly will not get Lost in Translation.
Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: One-trick pony Juan Pierre has been benched. It's Matt Kemp who sits when Joe Torre throws Pierre a bone. Ethier is third-best at 4.8 pitches per plate appearance and looks like a solid No. 3 hitter.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds: Most impressive is his fearlessness with a changeup that's nothing special but complements his gas well enough. He's giving up lots of fly balls, so there will be rough patches with the homers. But they won't be crippling given his good control (zero walks).
Sell
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: The power (five homers) is real. And he's the most extreme fly-ball hitter in the league to date. However, he's still striking out too much, so he'll be prone to lengthy slumps. Chad Tracy (knee) will ultimately threaten playing time. Lock in profits.
Michael Bourn, OF, Astros: He will keep running because it's all he can do. He won't play versus lefties and might hit .270 with a .340 on-base percentage and no power if everything breaks right.
Todd Wellemeyer, P, Cardinals: Nothing in his lengthy big-league history suggests he can continue his solid pitching or his prodigious K-rates. Yes, he's sported decent K/9 in the past, but only as a reliever. Expect his rate of 12 Ks per nine innings to be cut in half and his ERA to double as a result.
5:03 PM Tue, Apr 08, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/8
Next Update: 4/15
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
6. Erik Bedard, Mariners
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
NOTE: Messy two starts to open.
9. Aaron Harang, Reds
10. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
11. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
12. John Maine, Mets
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
15. *John Smoltz, Braves
16. Chris Young, Padres
17. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
18. James Shields, Rays
19. Fausto Carmona, Indians
20. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
21. Ian Snell, Pirates
22. Roy Oswalt, Astros
NOTE: Beware of dipping strikeout rate.
23. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
24. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
25. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
26. Brad Penny, Dodgers
27. Matt Cain, Giants
28. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
29. *John Lackey, Angels
30. Jered Weaver, Angels
31. Tim Hudson, Braves
32. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
33. Rich Hill, Cubs
34. Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: He's teasing us again.
35. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
36. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
37. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
38. Oliver Perez, Mets
39. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
40. Jeff Francis, Rockies
41. Gil Meche, Royals
42. Zack Greinke, Royals
43. Johnny Cueto, Reds
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
44. Brett Myers, Phillies
45. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
46. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
47. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
48. Phil Hughes, Yankees
49. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
NOTE: Impressive debut with little fanfare.
50. Joe Blanton, Athletics
51. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
52. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
53. Ted Lilly, Cubs
54. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
NOTE: AL's version of David Bush.
55. Jon Garland, Angels
56. Matt Garza, Rays
57. *Rich Harden, Athletics
NOTE: Nicks have already shown up.
58. Boof Bonser, Twins
59. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
60. Greg Maddux, Padres
61. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
62. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
63. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Another strikeout kid in Cincy.
64. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
65. Jake Westbrook, Indians
66. *Shawn Hill, Senators
67. Randy Wolf, Padres
68. Scott Baker, Twins
69. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
70. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
71. Brian Bannister, Royals
72. Kevin Correia, Giants
73. Scott Olsen, Marlins
74. Manny Parra, Brewers
NOTE: High-upside lefty, decent debut.
75. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
76. Jon Lester, Red Sox
77. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
78. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
NOTE: Serviceable for back of your staff.
79. Paul Maholm, Pirates
80. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
81. Tom Glavine, Braves
82. John Danks, White Sox
83. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
84. Joe Saunders, Angels
NOTE: Former first-rounder might be stepping up.
85. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
86. Chris Sampson, Astros
87. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
88. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
89. Nick Blackburn, Twins
90. *Kevin Slowey, Twins
91. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
92. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
93. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
94. Jason Bergmann, Senators
95. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
NOTE: 2007 ERA was a mirage.
96. Odalis Perez, Senators
97. Garrett Olson, Orioles
98. Adam Loewen, Orioles
99. Ervin Santana, Angels
NOTE: Encouraging to see him win on road.
100. David Bush, Brewers
101. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
102. Brandon Backe, Astros
103. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
104. Nate Robertson, Tigers
105. *Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
106. Zach Duke, Pirates
107. Franklin Morales, Rockies
108. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
109. Brad Thompson, Cardinals
110. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: Can win when he locates fastball.
111. Dana Eveland, Athletics
112. *Tim Redding, Senators
113. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
114. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
NOTE: Power arm, two good starts.
115. *Kelvim Escobar, Angels
116. *Mark Prior, Padres
117. Miguel Batista, Mariners
118. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
119. Justin Germano, Padres
120. Jon Lieber, Cubs
121. Matt Chico, Senators
122. Barry Zito, Giants
123. Shawn Chacon, Astros
124. Jeremy Affeldt, Reds
125. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
126. Livan Hernandez, Twins
NOTE: Trust the ratio, don't buy in.
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Billy Wagner, Mets
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Joe Nathan, Twins
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. Jose Valverde, Astros
7. Matt Capps, Pirates
8. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
NOTE: Should be back fairly soon.
9. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
10. Joakim Soria, Royals
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
12. Francisco Cordero, Reds
13. *Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
NOTE: Back him up with Shields, Speier.
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. Rafael Soriano, Braves
16. Brad Lidge, Phillies
NOTE: Good luck in Philly, big guy.
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
19. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
20. George Sherrill, Orioles
NOTE: Has more than enough stuff to close.
21. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
22. Brian Wilson, Giants
23. Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: Durability is only question.
24. Joe Borowski, Indians
25. Eric Gagne, Brewers
26. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
27. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
NOTE: On a very short leash.
28. *Chad Cordero, Senators
29. Troy Percival, Rays
30. *B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
31. Scot Shields, Angels
32. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
33. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
34. Jon Rauch, Senators
35. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
36. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
37. Heath Bell, Padres
NOTE: His job in 2009, maybe earlier?
38. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
39. Mark Lowe, Mariners
40. David Riske, Brewers
41. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
42. Dan Wheeler, Rays
43. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
44. Aaron Heilman, Mets
45. Luis Ayala, Senators
46. Leo Nunez, Royals
47. Tom Gordon, Phillies
48. Bob Howry, Cubs
49. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
50. Justin Speier, Angels
51. Dennis Sarfate, Orioles
NOTE: Electric stuff, will get shot at wins.
52. Peter Moylan, Braves
53. Pat Neshek, Twins
54. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
55. Eric O'Flaherty, Mariners
56. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
57. Sean Green, Mariners
58. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
59. Al Reyes, Rays
60. Jamie Walker, Orioles
61. Damaso Marte, Pirates
62. Alan Embree, Athletics
63. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
64. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
65. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
66. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
67. Chad Bradford, Orioles
68. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
69. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
70. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
5:00 PM Tue, Apr 08, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 4/8
Next Update: 4/15
First Base
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
7. Justin Morneau, Twins
8. Lance Berkman, Astros
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
10. Derrek Lee, Cubs
11. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Jim Thome, White Sox
NOTE: Has plenty of power left.
15. *Gary Sheffield, Tigers
NOTE: Says he'll play through finger injury.
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Billy Butler, Royals
NOTE: Future batting champion.
18. Ryan Garko, Indians
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
22. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
23. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
24. Casey Kotchman, Angels
25. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
26. Nick Johnson, Nationals
27. Richie Sexson, Mariners
28. Ben Broussard, Rangers
29. *Daric Barton, Athletics
30. Jason Giambi, Yankees
31. Kevin Millar, Orioles
32. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
33. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
34. Joey Votto, Reds
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Robinson Cano, Yankees
5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
NOTE: Run-scoring machine in leadoff spot.
6. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
NOTE: Nifty start but injured thumb Monday.
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
14. Mark Ellis, Athletics
15. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
16. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
17. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
18. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Brendan Harris, Twins
23. Ray Durham, Giants
24. Tad Iguchi, Padres
25. Jayson Nix, Rockies
26. Erick Aybar, Angels
27. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
28. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
29. *Eugenio Velez,, Giants
30. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
31. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
32. Juan Uribe, White Sox
Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. *Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
NOTE: Left Tuesday with leg injury.
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. *Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
8. Miguel Tejada, Astros
9. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
NOTE: Not a long-term answer in Fenway.
16. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
17. Yunel Escobar, Braves
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
19. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
NOTE: Most underrated stick at position.
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
22. Tony Pena, Royals
23. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
24. Adam Everett, Twins
25. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
26. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
27. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
7. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Such a sweet swing when he's healthy.
8. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
9. Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Hank Blalock, Rangers
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Alex Gordon, Royals
14. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
NOTE: Now qualifies at second too.
17. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. *Troy Glaus, Cardinals
20. Jose Bautista, Pirates
21. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Plenty of pop, but Tracy looms.
22. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
23. Mike Lamb, Twins
24. Joe Crede, White Sox
25. Casey Blake, Indians
26. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
27. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
28. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
29. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
30. Maicer Izturis, Angels
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: How much will he run this year?
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
9. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
10. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
11. B.J. Upton, Rays
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
14. Torii Hunter, Angels
15. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
16. Corey Hart, Brewers
17. Hunter Pence, Astros
18. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
19. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
20. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
21. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
22. Adam Dunn, Reds
23. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
24. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
25. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Could be NL's fastest player.
26. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
27. Nick Swisher, White Sox
28. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
29. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
30. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: He's taken job and run with it.
31. Delmon Young, Twins
32. Josh Willingham, Marlins
33. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
NOTE: Legit chance at 20-20.
34. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
35. Carlos Gomez, Twins
36. Johnny Damon, Yankees
37. Shane Victorino, Phillies
38. Jason Bay, Pirates
39. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
40. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
41. Ken Griffey, Reds
42. Corey Patterson, Reds
43. Bill Hall, Brewers
44. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
NOTE: A story to rally around.
45. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
46. Adam Jones, Orioles
47. Willy Taveras, Rockies
48. Pat Burrell, Phillies
49. Mark Teahen, Royals
50. *Jose Guillen, Royals
51. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Crisp cuts into value.
52. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Torre won't commit to him.
53. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
54. Luke Scott, Orioles
55. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
56. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
57. Aaron Rowand, Giants
58. Austin Kearns, Nationals
59. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
60. *Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
61. Matt Diaz, Braves
62. Jason Kubel, Twins
63. *David DeJesus, Royals
64. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
65. Xavier Nady, Pirates
66. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
67. Scott Hairston, Padres
68. Gary Matthews, Angels
69. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
70. Garret Anderson, Angels
71. Felix Pie, Cubs
72. Jack Cust, Athletics
73. Milton Bradley, Rangers
74. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
NOTE: Quickly rebuilding his rep.
75. *Coco Crisp, Red Sox
76. Ryan Church, Mets
77. Joey Gathright, Royals
78. Randy Winn, Giants
79. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
80. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
81. David Murphy, Rangers
82. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
83. Dave Roberts, Giants
84. Brian Giles, Padres
85. Jacque Jones, Tigers
86. Travis Buck, Athletics
87. Cliff Floyd, Rays
88. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
89. Jonny Gomes, Rays
90. *Moises Alou, Mets
91. Jim Edmonds, Padres
92. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
93. Ryan Freel, Reds
94. Jayson Werth, Phillies
95. Eric Hinske,, Rays
96. Reggie Willits, Angels
97. Angel Pagan, Mets
98. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
99. *David Dellucci, Indians
100. Brandon Inge, Tigers
NOTE: May qualify at catcher in your league.
Catcher
1. *Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
7. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
8. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
9. Geovany Soto, Cubs
10. Bengie Molina, Giants
11. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. J.R. Towles, Astros
14. Mike Napoli, Angels
15. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: Injury-prone, but can hit.
16. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
17. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
18. Josh Bard, Padres
19. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
20. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
21. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
NOTE: No longer an easy out.
22. John Buck, Royals
23. Gerald Laird, Rangers
NOTE: Has shot at 20 homers.
24. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
25. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
26. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
27. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
28. Dave Ross, Reds
29. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
30. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
31. Brian Schneider, Mets
32. Jason Kendall, Brewers
3:50 PM Fri, Apr 04, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
No East Coast bias in this version of the Junior Circuit stock watch, as we’ll focus on some movers and shakers from the middle of the country on out.
Batters
BUY
Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: He gets lumped into the "last year’s bum" file a lot, but that’s short-sighted; Gordon hit .285 over his final 98 games, with pop (12 homers) and speed (10 steals). New skipper Trey Hillman quickly bought in this spring, parking Gordon in the third spot in the order (where you want all your fantasy players), and the third sacker came through with a couple of home runs in the sweep of Detroit. We could probably issue buy reports on a quarter of the Kansas City roster right now; this club is Tampa Bay without the hype, a young collection of talent that’s mature and confident enough to make a run at .500 or better.
SELL
Travis Buck, OF, Athletics: He’ll be back in the lineup Friday after getting a day off, but clearly he’s not seeing the ball well right now (0 for 14, seven strikeouts, no walks). In theory he’s got the eye and baserunning skills you look for from a leadoff man; it will be interesting to see how patient the Athletics are with him. For now, we’ll slide Buck to the bench and let him work out of this.
HOLD
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Indians: Be a little skeptical about his 2007 line (13 homers in 271 at-bats), as he didn’t hit much on the road or against righties (aye, there’s the rub). That said, the Tribe realizes that Gutierrez deserves an everyday spot over the David Dellucci types, so there’s still 30-homer potential here. Gutierrez had a snappy opening series against Chicago, hitting one homer and getting on base half of the time, and he’s got enough speed to steal 15 bases over a full season.
Pitchers
BUY
Zack Greinke, SP, Royals: He quietly put things together in the second half of 2007 (2.42 ERA, 1.17 ratio, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings), but when you do that for a small-market team, the cover isn’t blown. Greinke increased his current profile with seven sparkling innings against Detroit on Thursday, and for all the time he’s been in our fantasy consciousness, he’s still just 24. Here comes his breakthrough season.
Mark Lowe, SP, Mariners: The Ms are optimistic that J.J. Putz (rib) won’t be out long, but in the meantime that leads us to Lowe, who gets a chance to chair the bullpen committee for the rest of the month. Lowe has the arm and the moxie for high-leverage innings – we saw that in his electric 2006 debut – and he should be fully recovered from the elbow surgery he had that fall. Don’t misinterpret the Miguel Batista save from Wednesday – Lowe was unavailable after pitching the previous two days, and Batista is sticking in the rotation (he merely got this surprise save because the assignment coincided with a scheduled throwing day).
SELL
Mark Buehrle, SP, White Sox: Last year his strikeout rate jumped a little bit and he trimmed his walks, bully for him. But was that enough to support the 1.36 runs he chopped off his ERA? Let your opponents pray for another ERA in the 3s; we’ll sit back and expect the correction to carry the number back into the danger zone. Buehrle’s never been a big strikeout guy and that trend won’t change at this part of his career, the wrong words to hear on someone who’s in a hitter's park and backed by a spotty defense. There was nothing fluky about the rockets Cleveland hit against Buehrle on opening day; expect more of the same.
HOLD
Ervin Santana, SP, Angels: His 2007 season was a horror show on the road (1-10, 8.38 ERA), so the Halos have to be encouraged at what Santana did in the Metrodome on Thursday (six innings, two runs). The talent is there for Santana to be a $15 pitcher; he just needs to get out of his own way and trust his stuff a little more.
12:39 PM Fri, Apr 04, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 7 through April 13th unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put' em in
Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: So far, so good for the centerpiece of the Johan Santana deal. He stole two bags on opening day and hit safely in the first three games to open the season. Gomez has been touted in the past as the Jose Reyes of the outfield, a five-tool talent who electrifies the stadium each time he comes to bat. As long as he’s hot, he’ll be a good source for steals and runs.
Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Off to a quick start with back to back multi-hit games after going hitless in the opener, Kotchman is a good bet to take another step forward after his semi-breakout in ’07. Look for a high average and run production from him, with any extra power coming as an added bonus. He’s a good, cheap corner infield or utility play in mixed-league formats.
Bench 'em
Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners: Those hoping for a rebound this season were disappointed by Sexson’s 1-for-11 start to the season. A victim of bad luck last season (.210 when putting the ball in play; average is .300), Sexson could still be a good source of power. But wait to see if he can get back to near his career average of .263.
Jason Giambi, 1B, Yankees: The New York Post raved about his perfect game in the field on opening day, which would be great if your fantasy league was based on defense. The “Giambino” has started off hitless in his first three games with only one run batted in. Giambi can hit home runs in bunches, despite managing only 14 last year while battling foot issues. He could be running out of juice, though (pun intended).
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Yunel Escobar, 2B, SS, 3B, Braves: Some people around baseball have compared his intangibles to Derek Jeter's, and his bat may not be far behind. Escobar has gotten off to a scorching start, collecting multiple hits in the first two games along with a homer and six runs batted in. His position eligibility makes him a valuable asset worth owning in all formats.
Xavier Nady, OF, Pirates: After a cold spring, Nady has turned it up to open this season, clubbing two homers on opening day. He’s never going to be a star, but he can be productive enough when locked in. Nady smacked six homers in April '06, and traditionally does most of his damage from April through June. Get his bat in your lineup while it's hot.
Bench 'em
Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: Despite showing some power opening week, Drew could lose time to utilityman Chris Burke against lefties this season. Drew doesn’t hit anyone all that well, so parking his career .259 average on the pine is your best bet until gets hot or turns the corner. Grab Escobar if you can.
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: After a pretty good spring, Kemp could find his way into a platoon situation with the overpaid Juan Pierre. After driving in a run in his first at-bat, he’s done nothing but strikeout a bunch and not hit the ball out of the infield. Tremendous upside here, but there are some hurdles he needs to jump before getting there.
12:56 PM Thu, Apr 03, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
You want volatility, meet me in the ninth inning – the chase for saves is a never-ending fantasy pursuit. Let’s open up the books on a few National League bullpens as we track the fluctuations of the current market.
PITCHERS
BUY
Tony Pena, RP, Diamondbacks – You’d like to see better control from a potential closer, and his strikeout rate should be higher given how good his stuff is. But there’s no way we’re betting on Brandon Lyon to last a full season, and the defending NL West champs won’t be slow to make a change if Lyon’s gasoline alley bit continues. Pena might be the best spec play for saves in the National League right now.
David Riske, RP, Brewers – Eric Gagne followed up a shaky spring with an Opening Day meltdown, and early usage patterns suggest that Riske (two innings, three strikeouts, one extra-inning save) is next in line. Derrick Turnbow, you ask? He’s been an afterthought in the first week, which makes you wonder if Ned Yost has lost confidence in him.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds – His major-league debut Thursday had a favorable context – nasty weather for hitting, and a free-swinging opponent (Arizona). But if Cueto's electric opener (seven innings, one hit, 10 strikeouts, just 92 pitches) didn't remind you of a young Pedro Martinez, get your eyes checked. Cueto's still a waiver-eligible pick in many Yahoo! leagues, so examine your depth chart immediately. When we're considering an upside this significant, don't ask why, but rather, why not?
SELL
Barry Zito, SP, Giants – Let’s get one more downgrade in on the big lefty, then shelve the case for the season. His fastball was never in the elite class, but now it’s barely getting into the 80s, and hitters aren’t fooled at all; the Dodgers had just four swing-and-miss strikes as they knocked Zito around Monday. Be thankful that you’re not on the hook for Zito’s monster contract, and extra grateful if you avoided his name on draft day.
HOLD
Heath Bell, RP, Padres – The organization has already endorsed him as the closer-in-waiting, and the way Trevor Hoffman is handing away games these days, the baton pass could happen at some point in 2008. And even if Bell isn’t working in the ninth inning, he helps you in other ways (102 strikeouts, 2.02 ERA, 0.96 ratio in 2007). Today’s version of Bell certainly doesn’t resemble the pedestrian right-hander we saw toiling at Shea in the middle of the decade.
Jon Rauch, RP, Nationals – Chad Cordero’s shoulder is barking and while a DL trip might be avoided, he’s not available to pitch yet, either. Rauch isn’t as dominant as his demeanor on the mound would suggest – if I saw him getting on an elevator, I’d take the stairs – but he’s got enough stuff to succeed as a push-button closer.
BATTERS
BUY
Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals – We were a little concerned when he showed up to training camp on the chunky side – Nick the Thick, you might say – but he’s still got a keen eye and a line-drive bat, and he pushed Dmitri Young to the bench in short order. Johnson’s never a good bet to play a full season, but when he’s on the field, you’ll want him in your lineup. If he can even squeeze out 125 games, we’re probably looking at the NL Comeback Player of the Year. Upside: .290, 100 runs, 25 homers.
Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates – He’s always had a pretty good stick, that’s not the issue here; Doumit hit a credible .274 in 2007, and he’s got 21 homers (and 41 doubles) over 643 career at-bats. Can he stay healthy? History says no; he’s been hurt in seven of his nine pro seasons. Nonetheless John Russell has installed Doumit as his main catcher to begin the year (probably starting against most righties), and the slugging switch-hitter is off to a 5-for-11 start, so let’s run with it while we can. Upside: .280, 18 homers, 70 RBIs.
Scott Hairston, OF, Padres – Here’s another 25-homer bat that’s had trouble finding a home, but things opened up nicely for him when Jim Edmonds suffered the inevitable spring injury. Don’t forget that Hairston clubbed eight homers in just 87 late-season at-bats with the Friars last year, and he’s already got two in the opening week of 2008. Yes, he’s miscast as a center fielder, but if Bud Black can live with it, so can we.
SELL
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks – You can’t help but love his long-term prospects, but 2008 could be a rocky road; he’s already struck out four times in eight at-bats, and the Snakes have him parked in the No. 8 spot in the lineup (a death sentence in the NL). Hot prospects generally get overpriced in non-keeper leagues anyway, so if you’re in a redraft group, let someone else play the scouting-snobbery card on Upton. We’ll get more interested when the price comes down; but you simply can’t get a deal on a buzz rookie in today’s Internet/Information age.
Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants – He’s the best offensive player the Giants have, but that didn’t keep Bruce Bochy from batting Rowand sixth in the opening two games. Rowand won’t get anything for free in his spacious home park, and good luck trying to knock in runs when Bengie Molina is clogging the bases.
HOLD
Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins – His snappy second half (.340, 10 homers, .956 OPS) got him on the sleeper list, and while he’s out with a sore hamstring, the club expects Hermida back on the weekend. If someone made an impatient drop here, step up and collect your prize; there’s a post-hype profit to be made, and the small-market screen of Florida doesn’t hurt.
10:55 AM Wed, Apr 02, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By Michael Salfino
The injuries keep coming fast and furious in Major League baseball.
Last year, according to Rick Wilton of the Baseball Injury Report, 404 players accounted for 477 disabled list moves. There were 109 players on the DL by opening day last year. This year, there were 103, but Wilton expects this year's total to increase further due to retroactive moves.
Some more grim numbers: 28,524 days were lost to the disabled list last year – a 6,000-day increase from 2006.
Speculation by Wilton and others who follow injuries was that stricter testing for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) such as steroids would decrease injuries.
"Steroids put more stress on the joints, tendons and ligaments by too quickly building muscle mass," says Wilton. "So less steroids should mean less strains and tears. The decrease we saw in 2006 made sense. But the spike to record levels in 2007 was a surprise. The early returns for 2008 make last year seem more like a trend."
Wilton believes that the culprit might be HGH (human growth hormone), which presently cannot be detected by tests.
Andy Andres, a muscle physiologist and natural science professor who also teaches a sabermetrics course at Boston University, disagrees. "HGH has not been proven to increase strength in young people."
So Andres doesn't see it playing a role in joint and tendon injuries. He still suspects PEDs are to blame. "There are designer steroids out there that cannot be detected by tests. And there's clearly a great incentive to cheat."
Wilton says that most of the players who get caught now by the testing are minor leaguers taking horse steroids because they're cheap. Masking agents are also expensive.
Andres wants to see another year's total of the days spent on the disabled list to see how severe these injuries are. Wilton does suspect that teams are being cautious now in disabling pitchers, especially, at the first hint of trouble.
Another factor, according to Wilton, can be the increased emphasis on weight training by players discouraged from using steroids. "More weights and less stretching equals more strains and pulls."
Andres cautions against using injury data and performance trends alone as proof of anything involving PEDs. "There's a good chance a lot of what we see is just random variance. But there's a great urge to say, 'This is proof of steroid use.' Or, 'This is proof of steroid decline.'"
With an assist from Wilton, let's now forecast the futures of some injured big-league stars.
Buy
Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: He starts this week in Single A, and then the plan is to get another start in Triple A before being reevaluated about 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Says Wilton, "His command and velocity were off. They want him to build arm strength. Worst-case scenario is that it takes the full four to six weeks. But expect him to be as good as new relatively soon."
John Lackey, P, Angels: "I'm bullish that he'll be 100 percent very quickly." Lackey has a tricep strain and is ahead of schedule for returning in early May.
Milton Bradley, OF/DH, Rangers: Not all torn ACLs are the same. "If it's not a major tear, it can be almost patched, for lack of a better term. Bradley's recovery is record-breaking, but there have been major strides as the number of procedures has increased. Recovery estimates are baseline numbers, a fancy way of saying, 'Guesses.'"
Brad Lidge, P, Phillies: The Phanatics already have seen enough of Tom Gordon (five opening day runs). But Wilton expects Lidge to be fine when he comes off the disabled list Saturday.
Hold
B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: The current timetable is for him to return April 11, at least a month ahead of the earliest part of the 12- to 18-month recovery typical for Tommy John surgery. "The slider will be the big challenge for him. Relievers can come back sooner because they put less strain on the arm. But I still would not expect him to resume closer duties until the second half of this season, though he clearly is on pace for a full recovery."
Pedro Martinez, P, Mets: Forgetting about yesterday's hamstring injury and focusing on the shoulder, Wilton says, "His velocity hasn't come back and his surgery was groundbreaking, with holes drilled into bone and his shoulder basically glued back together. However, he appears remarkably smooth in his delivery even though his breaking stuff doesn't appear to be quite as sharp as pre-surgery."
Sell
Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: "Three years ago, Pujols suffered a partially torn UCL (elbow) ligament. He was told to strengthen surrounding muscles and avoid surgery for two or three years." Now, however, the check is due. "I'd say there's a 50- or 60-percent chance he breaks down due to inflammation and that surgery is performed at some point this season to give him a better chance of playing the majority of 2009."
Joel Zumaya, P, Tigers: Wilton: "He had major shoulder surgery and I doubt he returns to form this year. His future beyond that is in serious question, because we have no track record for injuries like his not caused by pitching." Zumaya reportedly was hurt lifting a box.
Rocco Baldelli, OF, Rays: "He has a very unusual condition where the cells don't regenerate and disperse waste quickly enough. It's obviously very hard to be a world-class athlete with this type of thing." Best wishes to Baldelli, as this goes beyond baseball.
Eric Chavez, 3B, A's: Four months removed from surgery is a long time to be having spasms and needing epidurals, says Wilton. "About one-third of back surgeries don't fix the problem." There's no real timetable for Chavez to return, as he's currently waiting for pain to subside.
Scott Kazmir, P, Rays: "I'm worried about him. I'm afraid we haven't gotten the full story about his elbow and that a True Confession is coming."
9:32 AM Wed, Apr 02, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Updated: 4/1
Next Update: 4/8
First Base/DH
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
NOTE: Pay up for contract push.
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
NOTE: Imagine; 20 homers on road last year.
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Justin Morneau, Twins
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Derrek Lee, Cubs
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Jim Thome, White Sox
NOTE: March steal provides instant profits.
15. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Ryan Garko, Indians
18. Billy Butler, Royals
NOTE: Soon to be a household name.
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
22. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
23. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
24. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
26. Nick Johnson, Nationals
27. Richie Sexson, Mariners
28. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
29. *Daric Barton, Athletics
30. Jason Giambi, Yankees
31. *Joey Votto, Reds
32. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
16. *Kelly Johnson, Braves
NOTE: Tweaked knee opening day.
17. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Brendan Harris, Twins
23. Ray Durham, Giants
24. Jayson Nix, Rockies
NOTE: May have to share spot with others.
25. Erick Aybar, Angels
26. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
27. Tad Iguchi, Padres
28. *Eugenio Velez, Giants
29. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
30. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
NOTE: Might be smartest player in league.
8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
NOTE: Range, bad speed have slipped.
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
17. Yunel Escobar, Braves
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
19. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Jack Wilson, Pirates
NOTE: Glove, not bat, keeps him in lineup.
22. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
23. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
24. Tony Pena, Royals
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Adam Everett, Twins
27. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
NOTE: An MVP waiting to happen.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Welcome to the new digs.
8. Chipper Jones, Braves
9. Chone Figgins, Angels
10. *Adrian Beltre, Mariners
NOTE: Beware the sore wrist.
11. Hank Blalock, Rangers
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
14. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: Slotted third in underrated lineup.
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
16. Ty Wigginton, Astros
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
20. *Troy Glaus, Cardinals
21. Casey Blake, Indians
22. Jose Bautista, Pirates
23. Mike Lamb, Twins
24. Joe Crede, White Sox
25. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
26. *Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Tracy probably returns in May.
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
28. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
29. *Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
30. Maicer Izturis, Angels
31. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
NOTE: Might not run much anymore.
5. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: The best reason to go to Camden.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
NOTE: Best baserunner in the majors.
9. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
10. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
11. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
12. B.J. Upton, Rays
13. Carlos Beltran, Mets
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Corey Hart, Brewers
17. Hunter Pence, Astros
NOTE: What a ballplayer should look like.
18. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
19. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
20. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Nice batting slot on opening day.
21. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
22. Adam Dunn, Reds
23. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
24. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
25. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
26. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
29. Nick Swisher, White Sox
30. Delmon Young, Twins
31. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Might be fastest player in NL.
32. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
33. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
NOTE: Perfect slot between Morneau, Mauer.
34. Josh Willingham, Marlins
35. Johnny Damon, Yankees
36. Jason Bay, Pirates
37. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
NOTE: Already owns the second city.
38. Ken Griffey, Reds
39. Adam Jones, Orioles
40. Shane Victorino, Phillies
41. Mark Teahen, Royals
42. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
43. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
44. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Has shot at 20-35 season.
45. Corey Patterson, Reds
46. Willy Taveras, Rockies
47. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
48. *Jose Guillen, Royals
49. Pat Burrell, Phillies
50. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
52. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
53. Aaron Rowand, Giants
54. Luke Scott, Orioles
55. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
56. Austin Kearns, Nationals
57. *David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Nicked up on opening day.
58. Carlos Gomez, Twins
NOTE: Value comes from his legs.
59. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Gets nod, for now, over Pierre.
60. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
61. *Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
62. Ryan Church, Mets
63. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
64. Matt Diaz, Braves
65. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
66. Felix Pie, Cubs
67. Jason Kubel, Twins
68. Gary Matthews, Angels
69. Travis Buck, Athletics
70. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
NOTE: Has shot at 25 homers.
71. Garret Anderson, Angels
72. Jack Cust, Athletics
73. Milton Bradley, Rangers
74. Scott Hairston, Padres
75. Xavier Nady, Pirates
76. *Coco Crisp, Red Sox
77. Joey Gathright, Royals
78. Randy Winn, Giants
79. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
NOTE: Hard to say how ready he is.
80. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
81. *David Dellucci, Indians
82. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
83. Eric Hinske, Rays
84. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
85. Dave Roberts, Giants
86. Ryan Freel, Reds
87. Brian Giles, Padres
88. Jacque Jones, Tigers
89. Cliff Floyd, Rays
90. Jayson Werth, Phillies
91. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
92. Jonny Gomes, Rays
NOTE: Shaky glove cuts into his time.
93. *Moises Alou, Mets
94. *Jim Edmonds, Padres
95. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
96. Jerry Owens, White Sox
97. *Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
98. Emil Brown, Athletics
99. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
100. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
101. Reggie Willits, Angels
102. Willie Harris, Nationals
NOTE: Gets temp work with Pena, Dukes out.
Catcher
1. *Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Tricky call for club after season.
11. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
12. Geovany Soto, Cubs
13. J.R. Towles, Astros
14. Dioner Navarro, Rays
15. Mike Napoli, Angels
16. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: Has he moved ahead of Paulino?
17. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
18. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
19. Josh Bard, Padres
20. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
21. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
22. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
23. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
24. John Buck, Royals
25. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
26. Gerald Laird, Rangers
27. Dave Ross, Reds
28. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
29. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
30. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
31. Johnny Estrada, Nationals
32. Brian Schneider, Mets
33. Jason Kendall, Brewers
9:31 AM Wed, Apr 02, 2008 | Permalink |
Write the first comment
By Mike McDermott Email
|
By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Updated: 4/1
Next Update: 4/8
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
NOTE: Most dominant righty there is.
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Erik Bedard, Mariners
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
6. Justin Verlander, Tigers
NOTE: Cy contender, but good luck with bullpen.
7. Cole Hamels, Phillies
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. Aaron Harang, Reds
10. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
11. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
12. John Maine, Mets
NOTE: Won't be underrated much longer.
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. *John Smoltz, Braves
15. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NOTE: Had it going in March.
16. Roy Oswalt, Astros
17. Chris Young, Padres
18. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
19. James Shields, Rays
20. Fausto Carmona, Indians
21. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
22. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
23. Ian Snell, Pirates
24. Matt Cain, Giants
25. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
26. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
27. Pedro Martinez, Mets
28. Brad Penny, Dodgers
29. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
30. *John Lackey, Angels
31. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
32. Rich Hill, Cubs
NOTE: Mechanics weren't right in Arizona.
33. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
34. Jered Weaver, Angels
35. Ted Lilly, Cubs
36. Tim Hudson, Braves
37. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Don't sweat the Triple-A stint.
38. Brett Myers, Phillies
39. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
40. Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: Sell high while you can.
41. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
42. Jeff Francis, Rockies
43. Oliver Perez, Mets
44. Gil Meche, Royals
45. Zack Greinke, Royals
46. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
47. *A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
48. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
49. Phil Hughes, Yankees
50. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
NOTE: Much better play at home.
51. Joe Blanton, Athletics
52. *Andy Pettitte, Yankees
53. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
54. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
55. Jon Garland, Angels
56. Matt Garza, Rays
57. Rich Harden, Athletics
58. Boof Bonser, Twins
59. Kevin Slowey, Twins
60. Greg Maddux, Padres
61. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
62. Scott Baker, Twins
63. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
64. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
65. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
66. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
67. Jake Westbrook, Indians
68. *Shawn Hill, Senators
69. Randy Wolf, Padres
70. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
71. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
72. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
73. Kevin Correia, Giants
74. Scott Olsen, Marlins
75. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
NOTE: Mechanics were a mess in camp.
76. Brian Bannister, Royals
77. Jon Lester, Red Sox
78. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
79. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
80. Nate Robertson, Tigers
81. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
82. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
83. Tom Glavine, Braves
NOTE: Still cagey, but no Ks.
84. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Electric spring, we're curious.
85. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
86. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
87. Chris Sampson, Astros
88. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
89. John Danks, White Sox
90. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
91. David Bush, Brewers
92. Jason Bergmann, Senators
93. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
NOTE: Big heart, ordinary stuff.
94. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
95. Odalis Perez, Senators
96. Garrett Olson, Orioles
97. Adam Loewen, Orioles
98. Brandon Backe, Astros
99. Zach Duke, Pirates
NOTE: New pitching coach may help.
100. Johnny Cueto, Reds
101. *Paul Maholm, Pirates
102. *Tim Redding, Senators
103. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
104. *Kelvim Escobar, Angels
105. *Mark Prior, Padres
NOTE: Keep in mind for second half.
106. Matt Chico, Senators
107. Shawn Chacon, Astros
108. Franklin Morales, Rockies
109. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
110. Manny Parra, Brewers
111. Andrew Miller, Marlins
112. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
113. Cliff Lee, Indians
114. Joe Saunders, Angels
115. Miguel Batista, Mariners
116. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
117. Jon Lieber, Cubs
118. Barry Zito, Giants
NOTE: Soft, softer, softest.
119. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
120. Livan Hernandez, Twins
121. Jose Contreras, White Sox
122. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
123. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
124. Ervin Santana, Angels
125. John Lannan, Senators
126. Aaron Laffey, Indians
127. Mike Mussina, Yankees
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
3. Billy Wagner, Mets
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
5. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
6. Joe Nathan, Twins
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Don't overreact to opener.
10. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
12. Joakim Soria, Royals
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. Rafael Soriano, Braves
16. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
19. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
20. Joe Borowski, Indians
21. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
22. Brian Wilson, Giants
23. George Sherrill, Orioles
24. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
25. Eric Gagne, Brewers
NOTE: Ricky, but contract gives him leash.
27. Kerry Wood, Cubs
27. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
28. *Chad Cordero, Senators
NOTE: Grab Rauch if you still can.
29. Troy Percival, Rays
30. *B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
31. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
NOTE: Used as super-reliever as opposed to closer.
32. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
33. Jon Rauch, Senators
NOTE: Gets the ninth if Cordero isn't healthy.
34. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
35. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
36. Heath Bell, Padres
37. David Riske, Brewers
38. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
39. Tom Gordon, Phillies
40. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
41. Dan Wheeler, Rays
42. Aaron Heilman, Mets
43. Luis Ayala, Senators
44. Bob Howry, Cubs
45. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
46. Peter Moylan, Braves
47. Pat Neshek, Twins
48. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
49. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
50. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
51. Scot Shields, Angels
52. Al Reyes, Rays
53. Jamie Walker, Orioles
54. Damaso Marte, Pirates
55. Alan Embree, Athletics
56. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
57. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
58. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
59. Chad Bradford, Orioles
60. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
61. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
62. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
63. Cla Meredith, Padres
64. James Hoey, Orioles
65. Matt Guerrier, Twins
66. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
67. Brad Hennessey, Giants
68. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
NOTE: Electric stuff, blocked to the ninth.
69. Joel Peralta, Royals
70. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
71. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
72. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
|
New photos
Authors
New posts
Projo blogs
Archives