Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

A Final Four trip might be acceptable in some other sports, but in fantasy baseball, the season only becomes a success when you’re getting a Yoo-Hoo shower in October. Here’s a current buying guide to keep you on course.

BATTERS

BUY

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals – The new club is letting him run as he pleases this spring, and there’s a good chance he’ll open the year hitting second. Can you say “Post-Hype Sleeper?” Sure you can.

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates – He’s having a solid camp (.359, three steals), and while he hasn’t dispatched Nyjer Morgan yet in the battle for the center-field job, it’s just a matter of time. Keep in mind McLouth rolled up 13 homers and 22 steals in 329 at-bats when most weren’t paying attention last year, the joy of a small-market screen.

SELL

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets – Now in his 30s, you have to wonder how much longer he’ll be interested in paying the physical price that comes with stealing bases. And let’s not forget that he had knee surgery in the offseason. Beltran is still a heckuva player with a bat in his hands, but don’t make any heavy assumptions on the bag count when you’re valuating him this month.

Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers – He’ll never help you in the power categories, and he won’t help you much from the bench if Andre Ethier and others cut into his playing time. Ethier has been a frozen-rope machine this month while Pierre is struggling, and don’t forget that they’re playing for a new skipper. You can find your stolen bases elsewhere – you don’t need a one-trick pony like Pierre.

HOLD

Jayson Nix, 2B, Rockies – His glove probably gives him the edge at second base for the Rockies, but he’s got enough of an offensive upside to make us interested – just make sure you’re snagging him during the endgame. Clint Hurdle’s lineup jockeying can bring a fantasy owner to tears, but if Nix gets 400 at-bats or more, we’ll make a profit here.

PITCHERS

BUY

Matt Cain, SP, Giants – He’ll be cheaper than teammate Tim Lincecum, in part because fantasy owners will hold Cain’s crummy win total against him. But in the fantasy world it’s better to look at the other categories and let the victories sort themselves out; chase wins in March and you’ll be pulling your hair out in June. Cain might have to be Sundance to Lincecum’s Cassidy over the next few years, but he’d be a clear No. 1 on several other clubs. Enjoy a solid discount on him, at least this once.

SELL

Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs – He’s done enough to solidify his spot in the rotation this spring, but we see too many accidents on the racing form (2001 and 2003 come to mind). There’s no need for Lou Piniella to slide Dempster back into the bullpen; the team has more than enough options there. Even if we could land Dempster for a buck, we’d pass; the more innings this wild righty gets, the more damage he can do to your ERA and ratio.

HOLD

John Smoltz, SP, Braves – Forget the age here and forget what we think we know about veteran pitchers. Smoltz has proven to be a consistent stock for two decades – he’s had what, one bad year? – and while others are scared by his oncoming 41st birthday, we’re not afraid to cut another check here. Many shook their heads when the Braves put Smoltz back into the rotation before the 2005 season, but the critics haven’t had much to say after three more elite seasons.

John Maine, SP, Mets – Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but here’s one arm we completely believe in, a solid three-pitch guy in a big park surrounded by a contending club and offense. Maine didn’t pitch well in his first spring appearances, but he’s been mowing down hitters since. Last season wasn’t a surprise for Maine, it was the floor for what’s coming in 2008. Somehow, he’s still underrated.

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