Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

3/13/08

Prices change, perceptions change, players come and go, and we’re here, trying to make sense of it all. Here’s a look at the current marketplace as we hit the second week of March.

Batters

BUY

Michael Bourn, OF, Astros – I’m not going to give you an ultimatum here, and let’s not expect supremacy in his first starting gig. Begin with the basics: identity. Bourn is the new center fielder in Houston, he’s the type of guy who wants to run every time he gets on base (note his 18 swipes in 19 attempts last year, with very limited playing time), and he’s already grabbed five bags this spring. If Houston leaves him alone for a full season, we could see 60 steals or more by season’s end, along with a reasonable average.

Jeff Keppinger, SS, Reds – The Alex Gonzalez injury probably gives Keppinger the starting nod to open the season, and while another .334 season can’t be expected here, Keppinger’s got the pedigree of a .300 hitter. The tiny ballpark in Cincinnati doesn’t hurt the cause, either.

SELL

Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers – His hamstring injury might not be that big a deal, and fantasy owners don’t mind that Kent has the range of a lawn chair at second base. But the circus eventually leaves town for everyone and Kent turned 40 last week; we can’t help but expect some air to seep out of the tires as the season goes along.

Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants – He’s a blast to watch in real life, but the park switch will take a bite of his stats (so long, Philly), and Rowand’s all-out style in center field invites injury risk.

HOLD

Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks – It’s generally a good idea to bid skeptically off a career year, but let’s not forget that Byrnes was a dynamic player in 2006 as well (26 homers, 25 steals). His walk rate has improved in recent years, and we’ll forgive the ordinary average so long as he continues to fill the money categories at the end of the stat line. The public doesn’t want to pay for Byrnes, but I’ll cut the check.

Pitchers

BUY

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros – His final line from 2007 doesn’t look all that special, but take a closer look: He lowered his ERA by a run over 2006, with a nice strikeout spike and much better control. And pitching in the shadow of the Crawford Boxes doesn’t bother him – he had a 2.94 ERA at home last year. Give Rodriguez some early success on the road in 2008 and he’ll turn into one of the better pitching sleepers of the year.

SELL

Sergio Mitre, SP, Marlins – A forearm injury is going to keep him out for half of 2008, and that’s enough to skip his name at the table. Keep an eye on the back of the rotation in Florida because the home park helps a sleeper along; Ricky Nolasco is the most interesting guy there for now.

Trevor Hoffman, RP, Padres – He’s been skating by on guts, guile and declining stuff for the last few years, never more evident than on the final days of the 2007 season. The Friars aren’t going to take the ball away from their 40-year-old closer, but this probably will be the last year he’s closing up shop for them, and the support stats won’t be pretty.

Chad Cordero, RP, Nationals – His save count jumped nicely in 2007 even as his strikeout rate fell, his walk rate jumped and opponents batted .260 against him. A bigger park to work in helps the cause in 2008, but if the Nationals aren’t in the hunt in July and August, a trade becomes likely.

HOLD

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The left-handed phenom has been turning heads all during camp, but let’s keep in mind he’s still in his teens (Kershaw turns 20 next week) and far from polished (he walked 17 in 24.1 innings after his promotion to Double-A last year). I’ll bite with Kershaw for the decade to come, but for 2008, it’s too early to expect a return.

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