Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Public perception is a significant part of unscrambling the madness of player values in March. With one eye on the talent and anther eye on the competition, here’s a glance at the current state of the marketplace.

Batters

BUY

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres – His home park does him no favors, but he’s really a line-drive hitter anyway, a pretty close replication to Nomar Garciaparra (down to the uniform number). Kouzmanoff might begin the year hitting third for the Friars, backed up by another young corner stud, Adrian Gonzalez. You’ll get a modest post-hype discount in most leagues on Kouzmanoff.

Corey Hart, OF, Brewers – No need to crack sunglasses jokes here, just make sure you’re the guy bidding the extra buck. It’s rare to see a 6-for-6 guy who can fill all five categories. But here’s an exception to the rule -- and the Brewers finally got the memo that he should be playing every day. Last year’s haul (.295-86-24-81-23) is the baseline; your return might be a lot higher.

SELL

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies – The Colorado undertow isn’t as strong as it used to be, and there’s plenty of air slipping out of the tires on Helton, too. He hasn’t topped 20 homers or 95 runs over the last three seasons, and he turns 35 this summer. Let someone else overpay for the still-strong name brand.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – In another city or with a different manager, I’d be bullish. But Dusty Baker is already pushing the wrong buttons with the kid – trying to retool Votto’s patient approach at the plate – and I see potholes in the road ahead. We’ll make a giant profit on Votto in a year or two, but I don’t like the current setup.

HOLD

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His mad run over the final quarter of 2007 (11 homers, 15 steals, .442 on-base percentage) didn’t go completely unnoticed, so we’re paying a premium for his services at the table this month. I’m still willing to cut the check; even with the batting-average risk that’s at play here, I see a guy who’s going to walk a fair amount, run liberally and knock a few over the wall. The confidence has been restored; all we need now is a full season of health.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves – A lot of statheads hold his approach against him – see the ball, swing the bat, hit the ball. But Francouer’s numbers continue to improve and he’s still just 24. We haven’t seen anything close to his best season yet, and he’s capable of adding 10-12 steals that won’t be factored into the out-the-door price.

Pitchers

BUY

John Maine, SP, Mets – The final two months of 2007 got some fantasy players off the case. But I see a reliable righty with three good pitches, backed by a strong offense and a pitcher-friendly park. Maine misses more bats than most realize, finishing sixth in the NL in strikeouts last year.

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates – He’d cost $3-5 more on a contender, but we’ll happily take values anywhere we can get them. Snell’s nine wins last year were a fluke – he grabbed 14 the previous season – and he’ll make a run at 200 strikeouts this time around if he can keep his wing healthy for six months.

Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – It took him a while to adjust to the rotation in 2007, but he quietly had things together in the second half of the year (2.71 ERA, 77 strikeouts over 99.2 innings). Here’s a $20 arm that won’t cost you anywhere near that.

SELL

Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros – His strikeout count has dropped for three straight years while the innings keep piling up (911 over four years). His ratio sailed to 1.33 last season. Usually this is a safe place to pay for your ace, but I’ll take my business elsewhere.

Brad Penny, SP, Dodgers – Congratulations if you ran with his 208 innings in 2007, just keep in mind that Penny last topped the 200 mark in 2001. Setting a bid price on the 2007 resume is setting yourself up to fail.

HOLD

Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs – He’s got the electric stuff you want for the ninth inning (96 strikeouts in 69 innings last year), and Kerry Wood hasn’t had the best push-off to camp. If you need to speculate on a Chicago closer this weekend, Marmol is the stock to bid on.

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