Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Each year, if you rank major-league teams by the 10 most common fantasy baseball categories, you separate real-life losers from winners.

So a case can be made that average fantasy prices can be converted to actual value.

Armed with average fantasy prices in hundreds of leagues courtesy of our friends at FantasyAuctioneer.com, let’s see how Average Joes value major leaguers compared to the GMs who actually get paid for the privilege.

For clarity’s sake, we’ll convert fantasy prices into major-league equivalent salaries. The translation is based on the percentages each group of owners paid out of their respective salary pools ($3,120 for fantasy leaguers and about $2.7 billion in 2007 for real GMs).

The average fantasy owner in a 12-team, mixed (AL and NL) league paid the major-league equivalent of $41.7 million for Alex Rodriguez.

Following him, in order (and in millions), are Jose Reyes ($36.5), David Wright ($36.5), Matt Holliday ($35.6), Hanley Ramirez ($35.6), Miguel Cabrera ($33.9), Johan Santana ($33), Ryan Howard ($32.2), Chase Utley ($32.2) and Jimmy Rollins ($32.2).

Let’s look at the major free agent signings this offseason and see if our Joes give the real-life GMs a thumbs up or down.

The Red Sox gave Mike Lowell an average of $12.5 million over three years. Joes say he’s worth $13.03 million in 2008.

The Royals paid Jose Guillen a three-year average of $12 million. Joes, on average, spend $10.4 million, but they’re worried about losing 13 games to a steroids suspension that may yet be overturned.

The Mariners gave pitcher Carlos Silva $12 million on average over four years. Mixed leaguers left him on the waiver wire. But fantasy leaguers in 12-team leagues that draft only American League players can better relate Silva’s value. They went to a whopping $2 (of their $260 team budget), or about $1.74 million of real-world-equivalent money. Joes say, “Thumbs down, way down,” to Silva.

The biggest deal of the offseason (after A-Rod) was signed by Torii Hunter, now of the Angels ($18 million per for five years). That’s exactly what those playing in mixed leagues think he’s worth. AL-only players average about $22.6 million, but likely significantly less by the time his real-world deal expires.

Let’s look at some other average fantasy prices in making the following recommendations.

Buy

Brian McCann, C, Braves: He’s going for $13 in most fantasy leagues despite being 24 and having knocked in 90-plus runs two years straight while toiling behind the dish. It’s doubtful his rate of homers on flyballs peaked at age 22. If he matches that again, he smacks 25 round-trippers in ’08. Why can’t he beat it?

Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox. He hit 35 homers in 2006. Last year, he still put 14 over the wall on the road. Since U.S. Cellular inflates homers more than Coors, 30 homers is the floor, 35 the projection and 40-plus a reasonable hope. He’s also 27 years old, when most hitters peak.

Travis Hafner, DH, Indians: Sometimes a bad year is just that, and not a trend. Suddenly, Pronk has “old-guy skills.” So the stat guys have bailed. They’ll regret it. I see a bounce back because he was just too good for too long and is still too young to be done.

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: He’s having a good spring and projects to 20/20 in homers/steals. There’s a reasonable chance he can hit .300, too. But his max-effort swing argues against a high average in the near term. I’m told the new home digs will still play for pitchers.

Hold

Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: Savvy drafters root for springs like this. Bartolo Colon might serve as fifth starter while Buchholz takes a regular turn in Triple A. That lasts until June 1 at the outside. When Buchholz ultimately is inserted in the Red Sox rotation, he will pitch well. Pay the $3 and stash him on your reserves.

Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: He’s been sent down already as the Rays try to save a few bucks by delaying free agency for a year way down the road. That’s way too cute, but now you can get him as a Mixed League reserve.

Sell

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: Friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey (WiseGuyBaseball.com) has bailed. I’m inclined to agree, recognizing as he does that this is a make-or-break year for greatness from Hernandez and he definitely might make it. But Queen Felix refuses to battle for the inside half of the plate, as most great ones do quite fiercefully.

Jonathan Papelbon, P, Red Sox: He’s costing a relative fortune ($23). You need closers with fleas in fantasy. So look instead for weak guys on good teams: Trevor Hoffman, Joe Borowski, Todd Jones.

Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers: I’ll believe he’s really benched when I see it. But he should be (in favor of Andre Ethier). Even if he was starting, $18 is crazy considering the zero power.

Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: Sorry, I don’t pay top dollar for a guy who strikes out 200 times (OK, 199). That means batting average is always at risk. Why not take Carlos Pena (just 18 months older) for half the money after Pena smacked 47 homers last year. Pena blasted 45 bombs in 640 at bats in 2005 and 2006.

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